Did Iraq tip debate to Obama?

Posted: Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:00 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
At about 9:15, I was toying with the following lead to my post-debate wrap, "Nobody lost this debate, let's make that clear." And then the subject shifted to Iraq, that's when this debate turned Obama's way.

Both candidates started out soft and strong; it appeared another kumbaya debate was about to take place.

And then came Iraq and Clinton once again showed why the issue has been such an Achilles heel. Obama just has an easier time talking about his position. Clinton has to sit there and re-explain why she was for it and why she's not for it now. It's never a good moment for her which is the recent shift to the economy has been so welcomed by Team Clinton.

Overall, this was a strong night for Obama as he proved that he belonged on the same stage as Hillary Clinton. And that's an important accomplishment for Obama. Because, I keep wondering, are undecided voters waiting to see if Obama can prove his mettle for the presidency?

There's a theory that believes just that. And if that theory is true then this debate could prove to be very important to Obama. The audience for this debate was undecided voters and former Edwards supporters and I'm guessing these folks have a fairly low bar for Obama to prove himself to them, compared to the bar they have for Clinton since they are still not on board with the more well-known candidate. Think about the progress Obama's made in the debate department since early '07. She regularly cleaned his clock at these early debates but now that advantage seemed to disappear. And Clinton can't afford for that gap to disappear.

It's interesting that neither candidate is feeling the pressure of losing on Feb. 5; If anything, one gets the sense that both candidates realize this campaign could go on a few more months so no sense throwing any desperate attacks tonight. Neither candidate took crazy shots at each other which tells me that neither thinks they are behind.

Obama's strongest moments may have been toward the end when the debate shifted to Iraq. Clinton struggles to defend her actions at the time with her new position now and it just doesn't come across well. If this debate were being scored like a boxing match, the first 60 minutes would have been judged as a draw but the last 30 minutes would have been given to Obama on points, thanks to the Iraq issue.

If Obama does go on to defeat Clinton for the nomination, he will join McCain in winning his party's nod on the back of Iraq, even as the issue landscape has shifted to the economy. Go figure.

Two other extraneous thoughts: Democratic Party elders should be ecstatic about the civil tone the two kept throughout the debate. Contrast the tone tonight with McCain v. Romney last night. ... And CNN did the Democratic Party no favors by filling the audience with celebrities. Maybe that's good for CNN to have those folks to cut to during the broadcast but it only feeds into the stereotype that Hollywood and the Democratic Party are inseparable.

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Comments

As a former Edwards supporter, I'm looking for a candidate who uplifts my spirit and inspires my confidence, but above all, who really cares about the economic inequalities in our country. I believe both Clinton and Obama care; but I find I trust him more to keep the issues of poverty and the economy in the forefront -- not just during the campaign, but during the next four or eight years.

Mark Pritchard, San Francisco, Calif. (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:15 PM)

Chuck Todd should quit his job at CNN and join the Obama campaign. Honestly, is he on the payroll?

Hillary killed it tonight. Period.

DJK, CA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:15 PM)

what the? obama did not win just because of Iraq. Hillary had this in the bag, and it was obvious that californians want hillary as they boo'd blitzer when he tried to put her down.

John in la (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:18 PM)

How easy it is to say that you were against something when you were in no position to have to vote on something you now say you were against. Obama gets no props from discerning voters on being 'right' on Iraq, especially when enterprising reporters have disclosed that he made statements in 2004 saying he agreed with Bush on the war...plus, he's continued to fund it with his votes. Thank God there's no 'present' button in the U.S. Senate.

R Dier, Oshkosh, WI (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:18 PM)

R Dier, Oshkosh, WI (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:19 PM)

"There's a theory that believes just that."
--Yes, here is that theory Mr. Chuck Todd ...Voters are stupid. And I don't mean because they would vote for a Clintons, an Obama, a McCain or a Romney.

--NSMsnbc (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:19 PM)

The problem for Obama is that Hillary is in a stable equilibrium, rather unusual in politics, due to the image of a woman being victimized.

When it seems like she's put in a corner on issues (like being naive on Iraq) tonight, the crowd booed Wolf and I'm sure many women felt sympathetic towards her. Obama as a black man would never get such sympathy -- he would just look bad on the issue.

So when Obama or someone else appears to have screwed up, they get the loser image and people desert them. But when Hillary screws up, women rush to her defense and pick her up. It happened in NH and it might take her all the way to the WH.

This is what is called a stable equilibrium in physics.

Phy Pol (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:22 PM)

Obama '08!

Ryan, Fort Wayne, In (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:22 PM)

Hillary clearly said she didn't think her war vote was wrong, she just thought the vote to go to war with Iraq was implemented poorly. She thought there should have been "more diplomacy" (though not through the powers of the president, she thinks presidents shouldn't talk to other world leaders they don't like) and THEN maybe war. She tried to justify her vote because Saddam was evil and Bill Clinton attacked Saddam in 1998, so she wanted to attack him too.

And that's just not right. She WILL NOT say the war should have never been waged. And it SHOULD NOT have ever been waged. She made a mistake, and her failure to admit it, her insistence on justifying that vote, frankly, it scares me.

Ron, TX (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:29 PM)

anyone who read or saw Obama's 2002 speech on Iraq and what would happen would realize how prescient he was

and the above poster who thinks otherwise does herself and the almost 4000 dead and 25000 maimed people from this unecessary war deserve you to read and know the facts

Sen Clinton is very smart - but she should not be President

barbara tampa florida (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:30 PM)

John in la,(?)

Being "on the ground" here (thanks for the great insider jargon, van!) and having roots that go back to 1971 in CA, I think you must be in la, but not LA. Maybe you are from Louisiana.

Maybe you are living the Clinton "fairy tale."

Ask the Clinton ops "on the ground" here what their internal polling says...

45% crossover to Obama in 5 days!

That's what your boys and girls are saying way off the record... and further off the record... they are scared squatless.

Well, they are saving some of that for later.

Mark Thieme ("on the ground" in LA) (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:33 PM)

They both did well in the debate...Hillary at the beginning regarding to health care...Obama at the end regarding the war. However, Obama won the debate overall. He made it clear that he is a better leader. She's made bad decisions in the past and will make more bad decisions in the future. She is very knowlegeable and experienced but does not have the leadership skills or judgement to be president.

Rene Hart, Merrimack NH (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:33 PM)

The vote for going to Iraq has never had any bearing on my vote. Obama wasn't even in the Senate at the time of the vote and, frankly, given the number of times he voted present as an Illinois State Senator and the number of votes he's missed (more than a third) while a U.S. Senator, I don't trust that he would have taken a stand if he had been in a position to vote. Hillary was stronger on every other issue and that is why she won the debate,why she is the best candidate and why she should be the next President.

Mary, Decatur, GA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:34 PM)

I am proud of Hillary Clinton. Such intelligence, poise and accomplishments!! Now, though, we all see that a man with a thin resume and even less accomplishments is being promoted by the media over a brilliant, talented and committed woman.

I am a black woman with both a PhD and a MD degrees. I know what it is to work and scratch for success in fields dominated by men.

After eight years of Bush, our country is in need of competent, extraordinary leadership. HILLARY CLINTON IS IT!!!

E Saxton (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:42 PM)

R Dier, Oshkosh, WI
I could not have said it better. Thank you

Hillary Clinton 08

Jennifer, Arroyo Grande, Ca (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:42 PM)

How soon we forget, to R Dier, Oshkosh, WI:

Apparently, you have forgotten in the haze caused by the long Bush years what happened to so many who spoke out against the war. Many of those who dared oppose the war are no longer elected officials. Many of those who dared oppose the war were NOT elected.

Now, that you remember the above I am certain you will agree with me that Senator Obama's entire political future was at stake when he opposed the war in Iraq. Senator Obama was running for Senate when he gave a campaign speech in opposition to the War in Iraq. Below is an excerpt from Senator Obama's speech given in 2002:

"I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle Wast, and encourage the worst, rather than the best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of Al Quaeda." Barack Obama running for Senate in 2002 before the war in Iraq began.

Barack Obama showed with foresight what we now know with hindsight. He has my vote.

Kim, Pasadena CA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:43 PM)

It's the economy........Hillary won! She even won the CNN dial test! Hillary 2008!!!!!!!!!

Cathy, Upstate NY (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:43 PM)

I think tonight went to Obama. Hillary did good too, but...Here's the thing- I think alot of undecided voters don't like Hillary (or they would already be supporting her) but have been unsure of Obama. All that Obama has to do is show undecided voters that he is ready to be an effective president. He did that tonight.

jds (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:46 PM)

I agree that Hillary had a really hard time with the Iraq vote. Being reminded that the bill was titled something like: "The Authorization of the use of Military Force in Iraq" was helpful. After explaining why GWB shouldn't have gone into Iraq, she then came up with some reasons why she thought it was a good idea to go after Saddam. Convoluted and difficult to listen to. Disagree with strength and conviction, don't try to triangulate to a lite version of the opponent's position. We've had plenty of that, and it lost us the Congress in 1994.

Jennifer, Bixby, OK (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:47 PM)

I thought Hillary's response on the Bush/Clinton dynasty was disengenius at best. Answering as if she has made her political accomplishments, starting from a level-playing field. And the fact remains, that we understand how she will behave because past behavior will hold true. She has initiated many good bills, but achieved little. And the urgency of her husband to get into the White House (does anyone remember that he was nearly impeached?) to redeem his legacy is transparent.

Diane, Ashland, Oregon (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:54 PM)

Obama's strategy is to show that he has judgment and no "roll of the dice". In that sense he won.

Hillary played the steady hand front runner just like she did before Iowa. We know what happened there.

Yiannis, Baltimore (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:59 PM)

Hillary Clinton talked too much during this debate. Can't she ever just make a succinct point? It concerns me that her filibustering, unfocused answers are a mirror of her thought process. Rather than distilling the essence of a question or issue and giving a clear answer, she throws in only distantly related points and ends up someplace else entirely. She reminds me of a talker you'd hate to be seated next to at a wedding. Boring, in love with the sound of her own voice, and socially inept.

rmh, somerville, ma (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:02 PM)

Whenever Obama speaks, I feel a great calmness coming over me. When Clinton speaks, I feel rattled. There is an undertone of anger, and hysteria when Clinton speaks.

Charlotte (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:02 PM)

This debate was very tight, and there was clearly no obvious winner. Anyone who tips the scales towards Clinton or Obama is simply biased, each candidate had strong and weak points.

If you look up what actual economists have to say, Obama easily has THE BEST economic stimulus plan. There's even an article in the Washington Post about it, entitled "Whose Stimulus Makes the Grade?"

The one part of the debate that really rubbed me the wrong way was the immigration issue. My parents are both immigrants, as am I. Initially, when we came to America we lived in poverty, but thanks to decades of hardwork, my parents earn more than 90% of their fellow Americans, and I am able to go to law school without even worrying about debt.

Now, first of all, issuing driving licenses to illegal immigrants is a SAFETY ISSUE, not just an immigration issue. It's about ensuring the well-being of people who get into accidents with illegal immigrants, who don't purchase car insurance because they're not allowed to have driver's licenses.

Let's be real. Illegal immigrants are going to be driving with or without licenses. Giving them licenses is a) a good way to begin the process of documenting them and getting them in line to become real citizens and b) helps the safety of Americans who do get injured and become victims of hit and runs from illegal immigrants.

Also, I liked the way Obama pointed out that illegal immigrants don't hurt the economy, but rather the economy itself needs to be fixed. I'm sick and tired of the severe misconception in American society that illegal immigrants take away domestic jobs. Any real economist will tell you, that's simply untrue when you look at the numbers.

WHY ARE LATINOS NOT VOTING FOR OBAMA? Because he's black? That's really tragic, it is. WAKE UP AMERICA.

Jeni Hendrix, Long Island, NY (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:04 PM)

Obama won the debate. Hillary Clinton's refusal to admit her Iraq mistake only shows a stubborness and inflexibility. We already have a commander-in-chief who will never correct his course, never admit that he is wrong, even as he steers the ship of state into the rocks. Otherwise, they both performed well. But I have such Clinton fatigue and such a distaste for the ugly tactics used by Billary in South Carolina, that I just can't imagine ever voting for HRC. We need to turn the page on the Clintons. Dynasties are corrosive.

Jane G. Thomas (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:07 PM)

As a 22 year-old Black "male" Democrat in grad school at the UofL I was proud to see them debate each other in a civil manner. However, on 01-20-2009 I have no doubt in my heart and soul (I'm a Christian) that both senators will make history on 01-20-2009--Hillary Clinton as President, Barack Obama as Vice-President. Catch me at bhubbar@yahoo.com if you agree.
-Democrats United 2008

Brandon H, Louisville (Memphis), KY (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:07 PM)

Obama was much more inspiring.
Clinton comes off very nice, but much more of a technocrat. Plus, that long rambling defense of her Iraq vote was pretty disturbing. Why doesn't she have a better planned response to such an obvious issue? Did nobody see that coming?

If that's her plan then she's not the strongest candidate to go up against a McCain ... or even a Huckabee.

Jeff in Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:12 PM)

Why am I not surprised its MSNBarackC!!! Barack was not a US senator when the senate voted for the war. It is easier to say you were against something when you weren't in a position to influence it. The war was voted on in 2003 and he became a US Senator in 2004. This war conversation would be valid if he was already a US senator. Who knows...he might have just voted, " PRESENT."

mona, san pablo, ca (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:13 PM)

Phy Pol, I couldn't agree more. Right on the money. I have a feeling Obama sensed the sympathy wave that Hillary could ride. That's why from day one, he tried to distance himself as far as he could from a black man's image. Basically, he can't afford to make any mistakes to have any realistic chance of winning. On the other hand, Hillary's mistakes will actually help her cause. Bill Clinton should get just out of it. He might spoil that equilibrium.

Chizzo, Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:14 PM)

rmh, somerville, ma (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:02 PM) -- best comment on Hillary Clinton...ever. I would switch over to the UW vs. Indiana hoops game when she started answering a question, and switch back only to see her pontificate on some departed topic from the original. She would not shut up tonight, and the moderators (esp. Wolf) did an awful job giving equal rebuttal on the questions. Although in the end, that may have worked out better for Obama.

Ryan, Madison, WI (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:26 PM)

I am an Edwards supporter, and will continue to be. I think he has done the country a service by focusing on poverty. I was not sure what I will do if he was not on the ballot...until tonight. The exchange on Iraq convinced me that I really want change more than anything. Hillary struggled with her answer. Why is it so bad to admit you made a mistake? She would have had me if she had been honest and humble. I guess she can't be... My vote will go to Obama on Feb 5.

mblima, LA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:26 PM)

I think Hilary won overall. They all had their highs and lows, but Hilary's depth of knowledge, intelligence, sharp edge, and fineness made her quite distinguished.

Go Girl

Meg, Toronto (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:28 PM)

To Jeff from Boston and to many other democrats:
You do not vote for the one that is "inspiring" You vote for the "best" candidate. For the one who knows what "she" is doing. For the one who will make you pround for her knowledge, her command of international issues and for all what a "president of the United States" should have. Voting for Obama because he "talks to your senses"?
I see the democrast loosing again.

Nina (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:29 PM)

Hillary won Health Car, Barack clearly won foriegn policy

The tie breaker was Barack stomping a hole in Romney and McCain's asses with a few good one liners

YoungDemocrat (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:30 PM)

Obama was not in the Senate at the time they voted for the resolution, my guess he would have voted the same way. http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1673

.

Jeff, Austin (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:36 PM)

Go Obama!

Mo (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:37 PM)

As an already Obama supporter, I, like many others, went into this debate knowing Obama was the underdog. And in reality he is, as he lags behind in almost every major state. I just wanted to see that Obama could stand up to Hillary in a tight debate, and show hope for the democratic future. Regardless of the outcome, we can all be proud that we have unbelievable ambitions in Barack Obama and the potential he carries to the Democratic Party in years to come.

-President in Training- Obama 08

Nick Mullins, Jacksonville, FL (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:38 PM)

I think the exchange on the war was the most significant in the debate because it highlights the weakness John Kerry had in 2004 in criticizing Bush on the war. He could not do so without casting himself as a flip flopper. It also emphasizes the suspicion, well founded in my opinion, that Senator Clinton and others were taking political and not principled stands by voting to authorize military force. Call me cynical, but I believe that Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton were primarily protecting their presidential ambitions, believing that they needed to be perceived as hawks to compete with republicans in a post 9/11 election.

M Shaughnessy (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:38 PM)

I think the exchange on the war was the most significant in the debate because it highlights the weakness John Kerry had in 2004 in criticizing Bush on the war. He could not do so without casting himself as a flip flopper. It also emphasizes the suspicion, well founded in my opinion, that Senator Clinton and others were taking a political and not principled stands by voting to authorize military force. Call me cynical, but I believe that Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton were primarily protecting their presidential ambitions, believing that they needed to be perceived as hawks to compete with republicans in a post 9/11 election.

M Shaughnessy (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:39 PM)

Hillary Clinton clearly won the debate. But most importantly she has remained the most in control of the answers and the person asking the questions. She is a bright, articulate and well informed person on every issue. It should be clear to all that the economy is worse now. In the 90's, I remember diplomacy and an economy that was good. Furthermore, I understood everything that she said. She uas focused and her thought processes as she explained the issues were clear. She immediately understood the questions and then distilled the essence of each issue and gave clear answer. She will make a great President. This is one of the reason that the Right Wing talk shows are trying to trash her (ie. Rush and Hanity). She has the best chance to win and they know it.

Thelma, Los Angeles, California (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:40 PM)

Hillary showed herself to be unelectable, the GOP will rip her apart on her flipflopping on the issues and the fact that she is a divisive person.

Obama showed himself to be the only Dem who can win in 2008 and the only one who will really change this country

axt113, Cleveland, Ohio (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:44 PM)

Hillary rambled incoherently. Obama was a perfect gentleman, to-the-point, sharp, inspiring, and concise. When Hillary wasn't incoherent she was claiming stuff done during NAFTA Bill's era as hers.

Sarah, Los Angeles, Ca (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:46 PM)

"Rather than distilling the essence of a question or issue and giving a clear answer, she throws in only distantly related points and ends up someplace else entirely. She reminds me of a talker you'd hate to be seated next to at a wedding."

This was my own experience. Her voice grates, she cannot be succinct or stay on topic, and I dreaded the idea that she might become president and we would have to listen to that harsh droning voice that talks for so long while saying so very little. I think both candidates did well, but I really respect Obama's thought processes and conversational intelligence. He knows how to make a point forcefully.

Did anyone notice the little dig Obama got in when he talked about a woman crying at a town hall meeting then turned to Clinton and said "You've probably have experience with this yourself"? A good reminder of why Clinton would not be a competent president. Her crying on camera bothered me -- it's important for a president to exhibit emotional control, especially in public.

Cynthia Turner, Seattle, WA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:53 PM)

I am crossing over to Obama for sure. He came across as a trustworthy leader who cares. Why is Hillary so evasive and verbose? She is a typical status quo politician - never addressing the issues. Take the drivers' license issue. If she cared about the health of the people as she claims, she would vote to allow driving licenses to illegal immigrants as a matter of public safety on the roads! Why does she not support this - because in the microtrend polls (remember Mark Penn) white voters outnumber Latinos, and white voters don't want Latinos to have driving licenses. Her opinions are just polls-based. Neither she or her husband operate on moral principles.

anita in LA (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:55 PM)

rmh, funny you should mention Hillary talking too much. I couldn't figure out if she didn't know what she wanted to say or if she was monopolizing the time during the debate. In either case, it doesn't make me feel confidence in her.

sbc, del mar, ca (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:56 PM)

Yes Obama did win this debate hands down. I just watched a Fox focus group of 50 undecided voters. 5 people thought Clinton won , 45 people said OBAMA.

OBAMA is already even with Clinton in California. AND earlier today when Omaba released his 32 million for the month of January..........Geuss what>>>since that figure was released today Obama has had 50,000 more donors. At one point they were raising 500,000 per hour ! And these are all regular every day folks.

OBAMA WILL be the Next President of the United States.

Jim , Eugene , Oregon (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:58 PM)

It's amazing that hillary can't do a simple adult thing like admit when she was wrong. Taking responsibility for your own actions is basic adult behavior. If she can't master that, then higher levels of interaction and diplomacy are clearly out of the question.

We need an adult in the White House.

Obama in 08!

Neale, Atlanta, Georgia (Sent Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:59 PM)

RENAISSANCE sounds better than Restoration at this point.
VISIONARY sounds better than Veteran at this utterly critical point.
INSPIRED sounds much better than empowered right now.
Hillary has more of a chip on the minority shoulder than Obama.
OBAMA sounds much better than McCLINTON Mart... Depot... Corp.

soulja EXVOTO, Louisville KY (Sent Friday, February 01, 2008 12:03 AM)

Hillary's response to the Iraq question was scary. The rest of her answers were over-rehearsed and phony. Obama is not as slick but he is more genuine and clearly has a better vision for America.

I'm a hispanic female and I'm proudly voting for Obama!

Kathleen, Dallas, TX (Sent Friday, February 01, 2008 12:04 AM)

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