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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Clinton wins CNN's dial test group

Posted: Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:24 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
CNN did dial testing and reported that a slighty majority of their group gave the debate to Clinton but then added a caveat that the group sided with Obama on the Iraq issue. Interesting that they would include that addendum. 

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That dial poll is the dumbest thing I've ever heard of.  
The first part of the debate was even, with both articulating their positions well. I thought Hillary did better on immigration. The second half of the debate Obama caught his stride and took it to Hillary. She floundered on the Iraq questions, while Obama portrayed himself as a better leader with greater judgement. He has done a very good job of blunting her experience argument by emphasizing judgement. The best thing about Obama throughout this whole campaign is that he has grown as a candidate morre than anyone else. He is a savvy guy, a quick learner, and has great instincts. He is also cool-headed, has great judgement and common sense. He'll make a great President.
I found Hillary to be refreshing, honest and very much the next president...
The first part of the debate was even, with both articulating their positions well. I thought Hillary did better on immigration. The second half of the debate Obama caught his stride and took it to Hillary. She floundered on the Iraq questions, while Obama portrayed himself as a better leader with greater judgement. He has done a very good job of blunting her experience argument by emphasizing judgement. The best thing about Obama throughout this whole campaign is that he has grown as a candidate morre than anyone else. He is a savvy guy, a quick learner, and has great instincts. He is also cool-headed, has great judgement and common sense. He'll make a great President.
It would be such a nice surprise if MSNBC would report the clear winner tomorrow and not slant everything towards Obama. I like Obama but feel he needs more time in the trenches so to speak. He will have my vote 2017.....Hillary is clearly ready and has earned the honor to be President. Great debate, even Obama did alot better than he nornmally does. Hillary clearly won because she has the experience behind her views. I sure hope you guys can give credit where credit is due!
Bill and Hillary Clinton behave just like car salespersons.

I do not trust the pair and I plan to vote "ABC".
Obamas strength comes from his consistent message. His arguments are logical and pallatable. Consequently, his campaign had little swings.

On the other hand, Hillarys campaign has been eradic in order to adjust to Obama and the media. Many of her messages are not logically pallatable. For example, at times she is the vulneable caring woman, at other times she is the agressive bully, at other times she is in control of Bill, at other times Bill is acting like a maniac.

Eradic compaigns have the benefit of FLEXIBILITY at the cost of CREDIBILITY. Eradic campaigns also introduce uncertainty in the candidate.

I think Hillary did well at the debate. She should have acted that way througout her campaign. Unfortunately, her eradic campaign has lost substantial credibility.
Clinton/Obama Ticket - We can SHUT DOWN the Republican party for 16 looooooooong years - so help
us GOD
C'mon - Barrack is still a kid - the world leaders will take a while before they respond to him & we Dont have that luxury.
Barrack Obama will be ripe & ready under a Clinton Internship to take on the reigns in 8 years & we will al Vote for him - No problem.
I feel that Senator Obama had an excellent debate, as did Senator Clinton. Senator Obama showed that he is Senator Clinton's equal on policy, debate skills, and "gravitas". Add in his ability to inspire America and bring people together, and I think we've found our next President!

Obama '08
Sorry, but the CNN "group" was fixed. The real focus group of undecided voters gave the debate to Obama:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flpGEAs5_pA
Look at the the demographics of the CNN group, look at their base ratings of the two candidates, compare with other groups of independents (such as the Fox one, which may also have a bias to start).
this is for everyone but esp. " John in L A". What is wrong with you? Iraq may not be your most important issue, but to say it is not important is ridiculous. People wonder how Bush won in 04, this is why. I live in Los Angeles county and attended law school in northern CA and folks in those areas don't get it. A large portion of this nation has real concern with Iraq, we have friends and family in the military. Our folks are in 1 of 4 situations, going to Iraq,fighting in Iraq, returned from Iraq, and killed in Iraq. We know the difference in talk about "supporting our troops" and actually supporting  them. The Bush admin. has by no means been perfect in this regard but is head and shoulders above the Clinton Admin. and recent democrat canidates. My economic future is very important to me but so is the future of the military.
Bill and Hillary Clinton behave like car
salespersons.  
They have not changed from the past--sleek Willie and Hillary.

I will vote "ABC" in Nov 2008
Hillary had this debate. A policy wonk at her best. This is why she will be an amazing president.
Hillary has never met a war she didn't like.
Leave it to Chuck and MSNBC/Barak-Infomercial Central to characterize a 60-40 split in Clinton's favor as "a slight edge." Stop it already with the biased garbage!

Deal with it: Hillary won on the merits and substance.
That's one of the many reasons she'll be our next president.

Hillary seemed to me to have a far superior, more detailed plan about almost every topic than Obama. She uses far hard facts, numbers, and concrete language than he.  He has a lot of abstractions and plenty of hot air.
Everyone who continues to say "Obama is a kid," is patronizing and arrogant.  If you don't want to vote for him, don't vote for him.  The ironic thing with your argument is that you claim to have such great judgment and yet can't (or won't) see is that she has already sold out to the special interests whereas he has raised an UNPRECEDENTED amount of money from everyday Americans like all the bloggers here.
How could Hillary let Iraq dominate the discussion for 20 minutes? 2 years of positioning and neutralizing down the drains. Not good.

http://www.politicalinaction.com
The real question is do this country really want change?  And the Answers is YES.  Which you see the large volume of people at Obama's rallies.
That Fox poll is no surprise; Rupert Murdoch endorsed Obama because the Republicans want to run against him, and Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster.

That's also why you'll see so much Hillary hate on blogs; it's Republicans trying to beat her now so they don't have to face her in November.
Obama won this debate hands down. Billary can still not admit she made a mistake on Iraq. She stumbled and mumbled her way through that answer. I am a life-long Democrat, but if she is the nominee I will vote for a Republican for President for the first time in my life.  Billary is NOT electable. I am from Missouri and I can tell you, she does not play in the Midwest, and as you can see from the past 2 elections, as Missouri goes, so goes the President. Billary has about as much chance of winning Missouri as Ralph Nadar.
Clinton would've won this one, hands down, if she had not so thoroughly bungled her statements on Iraq.

She seemed incapable of providing a concise answer on the topic and, frankly, I found it deeply troubling that she refused to take responsibility for her vote to authorize the use of military force. I can think of someone else who has a habit of refusing to admit their mistakes and prefers to tiptoe around them rather than take responsibility; he's in the oval office right now, driving our nation into the ground.

Before this debate I had no question in my mind that I would vote for Clinton, but her fuzzy, deflective answer has left me doubting that she's the agent of change she claims to be.
Democratic base (yuk) - they make me sick. God what the hell do they want. I am a Black female who if I had the money would go some place and forget about the so called Democratic, who at one time Dixiecrats, KKK, Supreme race, etc. I am part of the Democratic base and more often than not, white women, gays, lesbians, etc don't want to allow me in that party; then when we respond the media pundits (Tucker, Matthews,etc) call me dumb for being part - WELL, I am sick of you and don't admire Obama a little bit. He knows the code word (as Clyburn & others were talking about in SC) knows Clinton was playing the race card, but what does he do (allow it to continue) and who will come up with the short end of the stick, again - all of those poor Blacks who came forward and voted, for him - some probably for the 1st time. YOU OBAMA MISTOOK THEIR TRUST - YOU DIVIDED THEM. THEY WILL LOSE and you know it.
I'm sure obama was just being friendly to hillary was because of monday nite state of the union sitting under Ted Kennedy's arm pit and thinging he was already President and the picture where he turn away from her hand shake
Before either the Obama crew jumps on the defensive or the Hillary crowd jumps on the winning bandwagon, let's not forget this is a test group.  It's not scientific.  It's not a poll.  It's not a random sample.  It's not stratified by demographic.  It's about as accurate as Obama.com or Clinton.com putting up a "Who will win the nomination insta-poll?"

It's meaningless.
It's definitely been too long since 9/11 and this nation's moved on. Never thought I'd see the day that someone would willingly think to put a Clinton back into the White House. It's been 7 years of trying to clean up the mess they left behind and it's not done yet, that's how big the mess was. It only started with stealing the W's off of keyboards in the White House. Petty Petty Petty! Billary bickering, fighting, throwing, name calling, insulting and cheating. The memories. This country's going to be on their case like nothing they ever thought possible. People are so naive and stupid. They don't learn from experience. If idiots are going to put them in the White House, then they deserve to live with the consequences. Be my guest. We impeached Billary before and it'll happen again, I have no doubt.
Wow! The Clinton News Network says that she barely won.  The irony is that their own poll says she lost.  He definetly won this won and any objective observer could see that he was more rational on the issues, and produced a more presidential tone.  Every other network says she lost.
Once again Clinton shined in the last debate! Was extremely Presidential! And easily stated facts, solutions and direction. Once again Obama fumbles and stumbles though trying to make points or somewhat answer the question, but not really. He doesn’t appear to be able to keep his train of thought, never seemed to be on the topic at hand. When they are next to one another she stands out, hands down. I think its O-bombs for obama…Sorry Teddy!
You are all political operatives!

Think about it.

Nice spin guy/gals.
The attacks on Senator Clinton over her vote on Iraq war is getting old. Bush took us to war not Senator Clinton. Why do people have this need to HEAR Clinton say she made a mistake? What purpose does it serve and what difference does it make now? I was not happy with her vote at the time either but I don't need her apology, it serves no purpose to me. Impeach Bush and Cheney for the lies they told us to get us in this war. I hope she continues to stand her ground --she has my vote in NY.
Obama was inspirational and presidential. Hillary waffled and seemed evasive. I give it hands down to Obama.
Hillary was clearly the most presidential and most inspiring.  We need a female president that is the biggest change we could ever show the world.  The most powerful person in the world, a woman.  What a statement!  Hillary gives me hope and optimism about my daughters.  She is such an outstanding role model for women not only in America but around the world.  We can unequivocally say that she is the smartest and most prepared candidate in either party.  She inspires me and my family.  Bill Clinton was a great president but I think she is the better Clinton, and that says something about her that nothing else can.  We have men in high positions everywhere in the world, it is time for the biggest change--XX.  Thank you Hillary for you inspiration to my mother and all women everywhere.  Let us give the world and places that don't believe in womens rights to take note that a woman will now bring peace and justice to all humans.  You won the debate Hillary and now you will be our President!  Go Hillary!
Obama has judgment versus Hillary's "experience". I am very glad that he was able to bring civility back into the campaign by showing how to take the high road. Left to themselves, the Clinton would have dragged everyone in the mud.
People should understand that there is NO WAY either of these candidates will be the VP of the other. Who would want to be Billary's VP? You know what they say...Threes a crowd.
Clinton did not answer the question on the Busch clinton dynasties.  She only made a joke of it and it is a serious issue whiot many particularly those under 40.  Did anyone believe her hollow answer on being able to harness Bill.  And on the war she really dug herself in deeper.  I urge anyone to look up her speech when she endorsed the war.  She is very clear that she was voting to go to war.   Now she wants it both ways.  If she is the candidate the republicans will eat her lunch on this issue.  Once again why does America want to go backwards?
I just don't understand how these Hillary supporters can be so dense.  Do they want a Democrat in the White House or not?  Do all of you really think that anyone but a hard core, life long Democrat would vote for Hillary?  Guess what...that is not enough to win in Nov.  Try to think a little like an independent or moderate Republican voter.  She is despised.  So all you Dems supporting Hillary need to start thinking about what it takes to win the White House - the answer for the Republicans is a Hillary win on the Dem side.
UNDECIDED VOTER IN NYC:::::

Hillary seemed to filibuster all night. Her answers went on and on and on. Obama was on message I could tell. Hillary seemed really lame on Iraq. She's my senator and I can never forgive her for voting for that war. I wish she'd admit it was a mistake. She also seemed very phony in pitching her website at the end. Like a sell out. Obama didn't give me anything to dislike. I think he's smarter than her too.

I guess I have no decisions to make about Hillary. I'm luke warm on her and there's nothing she could say or do to change my mind either way. Unfortunate because i think she's brilliant. She's name brand, however, everyone's opinion about her is already formed.

Right now, I'm leaning Obama. I think both would be a change, but Obama will change the whole world. Hillary will just change the party in the White House.

The fact that this normally Obama-friendly blog actually has a lot of Hillary support is a good indication of her superb performance this evening. She is clearly the best choice for president. Sounds good--Madam President!
I think tonight showed that the Democrats need to stick together kno matter who wins. Also, everybodies opinion in her decision on the Iraq war are playing monday morning quarterback's. We as a country are forgeting what state of mind we were in. With 9/11 and the constant reminder of WMS's by the Whitehouse, I think most people 6 years ago would have done the same. It what going to happen going forwards now that matters
I will drink some beers with Obama and have a good conversation over dinner; but Hillary looked presidential and ready. She was sharp, relaxed, precise, with humor, cordial and she earned my vote.
The FOX NEWS group is a bunch of far right wealthy white men who get off on Hillary as they dont have much else to show for there miserable lives except hating her outright- secretly hating Obama as he is black- and always making excuses for Bush. Fox gets higher rating in the US- but outside of the US- it is crap and CNN destroys them in the ratings. Fox is so slanted that only an idiot or a fool would look to it for an impartial opinion. Hannity is a caveman and O'Reilly is a nazi.
Another debate that the news networks have given to Obama. I'm beginning to wonder if Olympus isn't missing one of their gods.  Without a doubt Hillary was the better debater.  Obama might be smooth as long as he has a rehearsed script and is in a pulpit, but one on one, he isn't quite as engaging.  And if anyone thinks Obama doesn't make mistakes, you're right.  Remember, no decision is a decision. It's pretty easy to stand and answer present. Oh, and did I mention very safe. Blizter you're rude and an idiot!!  After all this is over, it will be very hard to watch any of these news networks and think of them as credible.  What a load of biased crap!
The attacks on Senator Clinton over her vote on Iraq war is getting old. Bush took us to war not Senator Clinton. Why do people have this need to HEAR Clinton say she made a mistake? What purpose does it serve and what difference does it make now? I was not happy with her vote at the time either but I don't need her apology, it serves no purpose to me. Impeach Bush and Cheney for the lies they told us to get us in this war. I hope she continues to stand her ground --she has my vote in NY.
Clinton clearly won the debate tonight. She went out with confident. The debate showed that she is very intelligent, experienced and ready to lead this country from day one. She showed that she is care seriously about this country and the american people and want to change the direction of our country. For this, I feel confident with Hillary Clinton to lead our country more than anyone else.
I just thought Hillary was amazing.  I can't think of one missing quality.  She has everything going for her.  She has my vote - hands down.  
Look, you can take your pick. On the one hand maybe she really did get suckered by George Bush.  It was pretty obvious that the neocons had Bush's ear, and they had been relentlessly pushing their wacky Iraq invasion scheme all through the 1990s. But maybe she really was fooled.
On the other hand, maybe she was thinking about running for the White House. Maybe she was afraid that she would be tarred as weak on defense. Republicans had been eating Democrats lunch with that one for decades, after all. The vote may be may then be seen as cunning political strategy. Too bad for the people of both countries, though.
Amazing performance by Senator Clinton.  

That woman is our next President.  A loss to the country if she doesn't win.  
Hillary Clinton clearly won the debate, and will go onto win the Presidency.  Tonight she displayed her breadth of knowledge and strength.  She also showed that she can hold her ground on decisions she has made.  Obama seemed like a novice and his frequent pauses made it seem like he had to find the right words.  I seemed unpolished and unprepared for most of the debate and she was "presidential".  Kudos to Hillary.
I feel Hillary continues to show   deeper understanding of the issues but what a dream ticket it would be...Clinton/Obamba.  It was so refreshing to have civil conversation.  Russert and Matthews must be very disappointed that they  won't have tabloid fodder.  I agree the media pretty much gives Obamba a pass and Bill Clinton has a right to challenge them about it.  Same for McCain.


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