February 2008 - Posts
From NBC's Lisa Myers and Jim Popkin Sen. Hillary Clinton has declined to return $170,000 in campaign contributions from individuals at a company accused of widespread sexual harassment, and whose CEO is a disbarred lawyer with a criminal record, federal campaign records show.
CONTINUE READING ON NBC NEWS' INVESTIGATIVE BLOG DEEP BACKGROUND
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee tried his hand at roping cattle Friday, but didn't get very far.
With two bails of hay with cow heads taking the place of the real thing, Huckabee received a quick lesson at the Fort Yards Stockyard and then had a try. He seemed to have an issue snapping his wrist, although he was better at the lassooing.
As he tried unsuccessfully, he put things in perspective.
"Ok, you're laughing at me," he said. "You think John McCain could do this better."
His wife, Janet, took aim at the other bail of hay, and lassoed the cow the first time. The governor never got it right.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Here's the Obama response to the Clinton "Children" ad...
Here's the Clinton ad again for reference...
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Rockefeller has thrown his support behind Obama . Rockefeller is the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (as of 3:40 pm ET, Feb. 29)
NOTE: Obama has picked up 38 delegates since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Clinton has lost a net of 6.
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
The NBC News Hard Count stands at Obama leading Clinton 1,194-1,037.GRAND TOTAL
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton and Obama campaigns have traded numerous charges -- over national security, NAFTA, expectations for March 4, and the delegate math.
The Obama camp now has added yet another topic to the discussion: Clinton's tax returns.
"Senator Clinton’s refusal to make this very basic disclosure has raised a number of eyebrows among advocates for increased transparency," the Obama campaign says in a memo. "As her top Ohio supporter Governor Ted Strickland said in his 2006 campaign, if a candidate is not releasing his or her “tax return, what is he hiding? We should question what’s going on.”
Click below for the full memo...
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton said this morning that, despite the some hard feelings among the candidates' most "severe partisans," he's confident that most Democratic voters are still happy with both candidates, and will support whoever the nominee is.
"We know that an overwhelming majority of the American people believe the country has to change course," Clinton told nearly 1,000 people here at the University of Findlay. "The other thing we know is that most voters who will participate in the Democratic primary like both these candidates. Some of their severe partisans have developed hard feelings about the other -- that always happens. But the truth is, most people like them both."
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Obama for his answer at Tuesday's debate about a hypothetical reinvasion of Iraq if Al Qaeda seized control, McCain today found a new line of attack in what is increasingly looking like a general election campaign: NAFTA.
Earlier at the debate on Tuesday, both Clinton and Obama said that they would use the threat of withdrawing from NAFTA to compel Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the terms of the trade agreement. But today, McCain called that irresponsible, especially in light of Canada's military support for the war in Afghanistan.
"One of our greatest assets we have in Afghanistan today, frankly, are our Canadian friends," he said. "It's very controversial in Canada, their commitment and the suffering and the losses they have faced. And we need, we need our Canadian friends and we need their continued support in Afghanistan.
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From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton's new ad in Texas continues... In an hour-plus conference call with reporters, the Clinton campaign rebutted Obama's criticism that Clinton had her red-phone moment -- the 2002 Iraq war authorization -- and failed.
"The question is not about who will be picking up the phone. The question is what kind of judgment will you exercise when you answer the phone," Obama said today. "We've had a red phone moment -- it was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer."
VIDEO: Sen. Hillary Clinton's most recent political ad portrays her as the leader voters want on the phone when crisis occurs. In the conference call, referring to the remarks Obama gave in 2002 opposing the Iraq war, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said, "Sen. Clinton understands there is a big difference between giving a speech and picking up a phone call at 3:00 am in the White House."
Citing Obama's remarks during the 2004 Democratic convention defending John Kerry's vote for the war authorization, as well as Obama's Senate votes in 2005-6 to fund the war, Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn added, "Time and time again, you have heard talk from Sen. Obama that's quite different from action."
During the call, however, reporters twice asked Wolfson and Penn when Clinton had ever been tested on foreign policy -- or had to pick up the phone at 3:00 am. "She has been tested throughout her life on so many matters," Penn answered, citing her "strength," her service on the Armed Services Committee, and when she went to China as first lady and said that human rights and women's rights.
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Clinton campaign went on air with today, former Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig, an Obama supporter, gave a terse response when asked if Clinton should drop out after March 4th.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Who is Texas and Ohio “must win” for again? Hillary Clinton’s chief surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, has said she has to win both Texas and Ohio. Harold Ickes, a top aide, said, "If we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decision as to whether she goes forward or not.” Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton supporter, said in order to win Pennsylvania, she’s got to win Tuesday.
So Clinton must win, right? Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist Mark Penn today released a memo to the media, though, with the subject, “Obama Must-Wins.”
“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem,” Penn writes. And not only does he have to win, they have to be “decisive,” according to the memo.
Obama has won a majority of nominating contests, including caucuses, but note Penn’s use of “primary.”
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe says, by their estimate, his candidate is ahead by 162 pledged delegates. (NBC News’ hard count shows Obama ahead 157 pledged delegates, but there are 13 delegates still unallocated, including nine in Colorado, two in Maryland and one each in Hawaii, Democrats Abroad, New York and Tennessee. Of those states, Obama won Colorado, Maryland, Hawaii and Abroad.)
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Obama picked up three new super delegates today, bringing our Super Delegate tracking total to Clinton 254, Obama 207. Notably, this puts Obama over 1,400 total delegates (Obama 1,401, Clinton 1,291) -- combining supers with the NBC News Hard Count, which stands at Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037. Obama has picked up 37 superdelegates since Super Tuesday; Clinton has lost a net of six.
NOTE: The Obama campaign sent out a release showing four superdelegate pick ups, but one of those was already on a list provided to us by the campaign prior to Feb. 5, which is why we add in only three as new.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro New York Observer's Politicker blog ...
A rotating red phone is shown as a an announcer ominously pronounces, "The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issues of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing, and that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale."
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Andrea Mitchell notes that Obama responded on camera to Clinton's ad. "We've seen these ads before, trying to play on people's fears, trying to scare up votes," Obama said. "But I don't think they'll work this time. The question is not about who will be picking up the phone. The question is what kind of judgment will you exercise when you answer the phone.
"We've had a red-phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer."
*** UPDATE 2 *** NBC's Lauren Appelbaum points out, Roy Spence, who has been advising the Clinton campaign, was also the media advisor for the 1984 Mondale campaign, and helped to create the red-phone ad.Politico's Ben Smith writes, "Indeed, a GOP media consultant who's made his share of red phone spots over the years e-mails that he found Clinton's a bit soft -- long on children, short on direct contrast."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign pushed back against Clinton's newest ad
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said, "She had her red-phone moment; she had it in 2002," when she and President Bush voted for the war.
The red phone reference is to an ad run by Walter Mondale in the Democratic primary against Gary Hart .
"We don't think the ad's going to be effective at all," Plouffe also said, continuing, "she's already had her red-phone moment… she answered affirmatively" on her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq. "She did not read the NIE, so she did not do her homework either."
When asked repeatedly about the ad on the call, Plouffe focused on "judgment."
"Sen. Clinton's red-phone moment in her career was in 2002," he said again. "And she supported the Iraq war, supported president Bush. ... Ultimately an ad like this is going to make people focus on judgment."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee emails First Read, "The Clinton campaign has not made any threat 'direct or veiled' to engage in litigation and no legal action is being taken. The campaigns have been discussing primary night procedures and we asked for those procedures to be put in writing before we agree to them. It is standard operating procedure for our campaign -- and we presume any campaign -- to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it."
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign is running in Texas -- "It’s 3am and your children are safe and asleep, but there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ringing" -- the Obama folks are re-releasing this ad from October featuring retired General Tony McPeak.
"As a combat pilot and Air Force chief during Desert Storm, lives depended on the judgments I made. And judgment is what we need from our next commander-in-chief," McPeak says in it.
"Barack Obama opposed this war in Iraq from the start, showing insight and courage others did not. And he's our best hope to restore our security and standing in today's world.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro New York Times’ Nagourney does a smart preview piece of how Republicans are likely to go after Obama in a general election, and are already doing so (on national security, taxes, his voting record, and even his middle name). But what the piece doesn’t mention is that the Republican Party is facing HUGE problems -- bigger than any candidate they could face. Indeed, just a look at other articles out there today should have the folks at the RNC reaching for the Tums: the Dem turnout in Texas, Obama and Clinton’s fundraising haul in just one month, and the youthfulness and diversity of the Dem electorate. And then there’s the Iraq war, Bush’s approval rating, and the fact -- as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook points out today -- that it’s difficult for one political party to hold onto the White House for three-straight elections.
*** Nevada redux? The Texas papers are reporting today that the Clinton campaign is apparently raising the specter of a lawsuit to challenge the Dem-sanctioned caucuses in the state that will occur on top of the regular primary voting. The motivation here by the Clinton camp is to discount the delegates Obama potentially wins during the caucus portion. Obviously, they are worried that narrow victories in Ohio and Texas will get overshadowed if Obama ends up with more delegates for the night, which is very possible because of his likely landslide win in Vermont and the caucus portion of the Texas prima-caucus. Is the state’s delegate-selection process screwy? Definitely. But how does Team Clinton overturn a process that had been approved for quite some time? This would be the third time -- the Nevada caucus sites on the Vegas strip, and Michigan/Florida being the others -- that the campaign has questioned rules that had already been established.
*** Goin’ negative : We were about to write this morning about our surprise that Clinton hasn’t run a negative ad against Obama in either Ohio or Texas. But then we saw the new Clinton ad in Texas that appeared on TODAY. It goes: “It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders…knows the military…someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?” Does it remind anyone of that LBJ Daisy ad? Ok, that's a little extreme… But it sure does raise the specter of fear. Of course, remember, primary voters are more likely to vote their heart than head, which may mean an ad like this won't be as effective as it would, say, in a general election. Meanwhile, Obama, who has outspent Clinton in Texas and Ohio considerably, has bought two-minute TV ad blocks in those states. No word on the content of the ads yet, but sounds like it could be another closing argument-type.
*** Blame Canada! CTV , the Canadian TV channel, isn’t letting the story die that an Obama staffer warned Canadian officials to ignore the campaign’s criticism of NAFTA. In fact, it even names an Obama official. (*** CORRECTION ***
*** Delegate update : Obama leads Clinton 1,398-1,291. The NBC News Hard Count is now Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037 (with 13 delegates still unallocated). Obama picked up another superdelegate yesterday to bring that total to: Clinton 254, Obama 204.
*** Money trouble : We’ve noticed today the McCain/FEC stories -- that McCain very well might have to abide by spending limits before the GOP convention -- are starting to roll in. But why is this only now starting to get more traction, compared with all the stories about Obama waffling on his pledge to accept public funds in the general? For one thing, the McCain story is much more complicated; certainly the Obama pledge hedge was an easier one to tell. But is this starting to become a problem for McCain? At the very least, it makes it MUCH more difficult to criticize Obama for waffling on public funds…On the trail : Clinton, in Texas, holds rallies in Waco and San Antonio; Huckabee has five events across the Lone Star State; McCain tours Dell in Round Rock, TX and then raises money at the Four Seasons in Austin before heading to Arizona; and Obama, also in Texas, stumps in Houston, Brownsville, and Selma.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 4 days
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The AP : “More than doubling her January fund-raising total, Hillary Clinton raised $35 million in February, her biggest month yet, her advisers said. But Barack Obama's campaign said it will surpass that figure, with some reports that it could exceed $50 million. Clinton has been struggling to recover from weak fund-raising in January, when she had to loan her campaign $5 million. She raised $14 million in January to Obama's $36 million.”
The New York Post : “[S]everal Democratic sources said Obama was on target for a $50 million February. One source said Obama will have raised ‘between 50 million and 60 million this month.’” Washington Post notes the really scary fact for the Republicans about Clinton and Obama raising more than a combined $80 million in month. It is unprecedented territory.
TEXAS: The state Democratic Party said the Clinton campaign is threatening a lawsuit over the caucus portion of the prim-caucus. "In a letter sent out late Thursday to both the Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, Texas Democratic Party lawyer Chad Dunn warned a lawsuit could ruin the Democrats' effort to re-energize voters just as they are turning out in record numbers. Spokesmen for both campaigns said there were no plans to sue ahead of the March 4 election. ‘It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party,’ Dunn wrote in the letter, obtained by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. ‘Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process.’
“Democratic sources said both campaigns have made it clear that they might consider legal options over the complicated delegate selection process, which includes both a popular vote and evening caucuses. But the sources made it clear that the Clinton campaign in particular had warned of an impending lawsuit. ‘Both campaigns have made it clear that they would go there if they had to, but I think the imminent threat is coming from one campaign,’ said one top Democratic official, referring to the Clinton campaign. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity."
More : "The source, who asked not to identified by name because he did not have authorization to speak about the matter, said Clinton 's political director, Guy Cecil, had forcefully raised the possibility of a courtroom battle. But Adrienne Elrod, Clinton's top Texas spokeswoman, said campaign and party officials had merely discussed election night procedures and that the campaign was merely seeking a written agreement in advance. She could not elaborate on the details of the agreement the Clinton campaign is seeking. ‘It is our campaign's standard operating procedure that we need to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it,' Elrod said. ‘No legal action is being taken. We have no reason to take any legal action.' Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said the Obama campaign had no plans to sue."
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NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his latest National Journal column about the advantages the Democrats have going into the general election -- once their nominee becomes obvious. “My hunch is that the general election will be a very competitive race. However, it’s important not to minimize the Democrats’ inherent advantages. First, it’s extremely difficult for a party to win the White House three elections in a row. Indeed, consider the past 60 years: In four of the five elections in which one party had held the White House for two consecutive terms, that party failed to win a third one. This ‘time for a change’ dynamic has predominated each time. The only exception was in 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush was elected at the end of President Reagan’s eight years in office.”
More: “Going into 2008, George W. Bush’s approval ratings hover around 30 percent, 25 percentage points below Reagan’s 20 years ago. Bush’s presidency has been marred by scandals, an unpopular war, and an economy that is just barely skating above recession—hardly ideal for any party wanting to hold onto the White House.”
Also, National Journal's Ron Brownstein looks inside the exit poll numbers and finds, "From New Hampshire to California, and from Arizona to Wisconsin, exit polls from this year’s contests show the Democratic coalition evolving in clear and consistent ways since the 2004 primaries that nominated John Kerry. The party is growing younger, more affluent, more liberal, and more heavily tilted toward women, Latinos, and African-Americans. In the 18 states for which exit polls are available from both 2004 and 2008, the share of the Democratic vote cast by young people has risen, often by substantial margins.”
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HUCKABEE : NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger writes in National Journal : “Few people believe that Huckabee will be the Republican nominee for president, but he continues to win rave reviews for his oratory and his talent for connecting with voters. With the race all but sewn up, however, many political analysts are wondering why Huckabee is still in. Earlier, some thought that he was setting himself up to be John McCain's running mate, but that likelihood has faded as Huckabee continues to challenge the front-runner. Now the take is that he is priming himself for a career -- perhaps in television, but definitely in the limelight.”
MCCAIN : The Boston Globe front pages, “Last year, when his campaign was floundering and nearly broke, McCain applied for public financing. Candidates who opt into the system get portions of their privately raised donations matched with taxpayer dollars, but agree to abide by an overall campaign spending limit. This year, the cap for the presidential primaries is about $54 million. But earlier this month, after he became the GOP front-runner and donations began pouring into his campaign, McCain decided to withdraw from the public financing system, even though he had not yet received any public money and his campaign has already spent nearly $50 million. Staying in the system would be crippling. His campaign would not be able to pay for ads, mailings, polls, or travel until September, when the primary campaign officially ends with the party convention.”
“Critics pounced on the announcement, saying it was too late for McCain to back out. And David Mason, the Republican chairman of the FEC, told the candidate that only the commission can decide whether McCain can be released from the federal funding system. But the commission is unable to vote because an impasse in Congress has left it with too few members for a quorum. As a result, McCain is in a bind. His campaign says that he has a right to declare himself out of the system without an FEC ruling and that he will feel free to spend more than the cap allows in coming months. But the dispute has cast a cloud over the self-styled election-finance reformer.”
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The New York Times : “Senator Barack Obama has made significant inroads over the last month among the Democratic elected officials and party leaders known as superdelegates who will cast a fifth of the votes at the party’s convention, cutting into Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s long-held advantage with the group.”
For every John Lewis, there are some black superdelegates who are fighting back against the pressure to switch from Clinton to Obama.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger Huckabee accused the Rev. John Hagee of playing politics over principle by endorsing McCain , and criticized the Republican front-runner for not accepting a debate.
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From NBC’s Andy Merten McCain versus Obama storyline has now veered back toward the topic of al Qaeda in Iraq, the likely GOP nominee last week previewed what could be a general-election talking point. Trying to cast doubt on the foreign policy credibility of the junior senator from Illinois, McCain told a crowd of supporters last Tuesday that he did not trust Obama’s policy toward Pakistan and his willingness to strike at known terror targets without permission from Islamabad, if necessary.
But just how far from the status quo is Obama’s position toward the nuclear-armed state, which is a known sanctuary for al-Qaeda terror cells? It turns out that Obama, whose platform of change has become the cornerstone of his campaign, may actually be more in line with the Bush administration than either McCain or Hillary Clinton . Still, both have been citing a foreign policy speech he gave last summer to criticize him.
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From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff and Lauren Appelbaum McCain was elaborating on the "stark differences" between his Democratic opponents' positions and his own, he slipped up.
"I'm a proud conservative liberal republic -- conservative Republican," he said.
After joining with the Richardson, Texas, crowd in hearty laughter, McCain went on to say what he initially meant.
"Hello, easy there," he said. "Let me say this. I am a proud conservative Republican and both of my possible or likely opponents are liberal Democrats."
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo What does Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) think of his longtime friend and colleague Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) switching his support from Sen. Clinton to Sen. Obama? "I've know him for a long time and I know how much he agonized over this because he felt that so much of what he fought for back in the 60s and 70s was beginning to be realized in a way that he did not anticipate, at a much faster rate that both of us had anticipated," Clyburn said. "And so I think that he felt compelled to be a part of that movement."
He continued: "I can recall as a child things my parents told me would come to pass are now coming to pass. And so you always wish for it, and you lay the foundation for it, but the question is 'When will it happen?' I think this has come upon us in a way that was a little bit unexpected at this particular juncture."
As to whether he will follow suit and declare his support publicly: "I will make clear what I am going to do before the convention. Will I do it this week or next? No. Simply because I do believe that as an unpledged delegate I have a very, very important role to play."
And as the third most powerful member in the House of Representatives and a longtime serving member of the Democratic Party, Clyburn sees utility in remaining neutral. "If it comes to a point where the other unpledged delegates will be looking for some guidance as to what ought to be done," he said. "I'll see if I can help with that as a neutral party much better than as a committed party."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff
As the perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader announced that former San Francisco Supervisor Matt Gonzalez would be his running mate, there was not a Nader supporter with a sign in sight. With no were cheers or applause, the room was so quiet you could hear the photographers’ shutters click.
More than a dozen TV cameras rolled as Gonzalez said that he is not disillusioned and he “understands what stands before us,” but he added that he has “never entered a political campaign without the idea that it could be won.”
Nader said he hopes that his bid for the White House will change the current political discourse. “We’re both honored to be running together and looking forward to addressing issues, conditions, and solutions ignored by the other major party candidates,” Nader said to approximately 60 reporters in attendance.
From NBC’s Robert Windrem
Al Hesbah is one of al Qaeda’s main cyber mouthpieces. It has been cited numerous times by name in official communiqués issued by bin Laden’s terror network, been featured in propaganda films produced on behalf of mujahideen organizations, including al Qaeda.
Its message boards offer key insights into the mindset of al Qaeda supporters and its collective knowledge base.
So those who follow al Qaeda took notice this week when members of the mujahideen took notice of the image of Barack Obama dressed as a Somali elder on the Drudge Report. Evan Kohlmann of Global Terror Alert, and an NBC News terrorism analyst, was among those who watched as the Al Hesbah message board lit up. Al Qaeda sympathizers cited the image as evidence that American political leaders, particularly Hillary Clinton, want to portray Islam as a political negative.
“In this case,” Kohlmann said, “it would appear that the publication of the Obama photo, along with the insinuation of an intended negative political impact from being classified as ‘Muslim,’ has only served to antagonize the ranks of those who admire and support al Qaeda.”
This discussion has been viewed several hundred times on the Al-Hesbah network, Kohlmann adds, and it has been among the top 40 most popular discussions on Al-Hesbah the past three days. Most of the discussions are about events in the Islamic world, particularly the conflict between the West and Islamic militants.
The discussion began with a post from a user apparently from Lebanon or Palestinian territories. He cited a news article (and accompanying photo) with the title, "Hillary Clinton's campaign distributes photos of Obama in Kenyan dress and accuses him of being Muslim." The author then immediately comments afterwards, "May Allah's curse be on all of them."
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Mark Murray Clinton campaign is up with a new TV ad in Ohio, in which Gov. Ted Strickland -- Clinton's top surrogate in the Buckeye State -- vouches for the New York senator. "We need a president who first of all is going to be a fighter. That's the way I see Hillary Clinton," he says.
"Hillary's always been an advocate for the middle class. She's got great plans to create new jobs in every part of Ohio. I think she's a person of deep faith. I think she's a person who has devoted her life to caring about other people making sure that America works for everyone, not just the privileged few."
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign will hold a conference call with reporters, during which it will announce having raised $35 million in the month of February, according to news reports. That amount is more than double what it raised in January -- and it comes after surge in online fundraising in the wake of Clinton announcing that she had to loan her campaign $5 million.
The Obama campaign has yet to announce the size of its February haul, but spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read: "We have raised considerably more."
Obama raised $36 million in January.
From NBC's Joel Seidman Senator McCain fully meets the Constitution's qualifications to be President of the United States. In my view, the plain meaning of 'natural born citizen' includes persons who become citizens of this nation 'naturally,' that is by virtue of their birth to parents who are citizens, particularly when the birth takes place on territory occupied and controlled by the United States, in Senator McCain's case, a U. S. military base in the Panama Canal Zone. Indeed, the very First Congress, containing many Members who were the actual Framers of the Constitution, explicitly declared that children of United States citizens, born outside the limits of the United States, were 'natural born' citizens. I am confident that the United States Supreme Court, should it ever address the issue, would agree."
*** UPDATE ***
Here's what she wrote in full: "While I agree with Mr. Olson's conclusion, what I said in my article 20 years ago remains true today: 'Whether a person born abroad of American parents ... qualifies as natural born has never been resolved,' and that 'Eligibility for ... children born on American military bases ... is also uncertain.' Some have taken the view that 'natural born' means native born, that is, born in the United States, and there is no authority expressly to the contrary. The 'natural born' language in the naturalization statute passed by the first Congress, to which Mr. Olson refers, was deleted from a later version of the statute for unknown reasons. The early common law did not always provide that the children of citizens born abroad were citizens themselves, see for example dicta in Weedin v. Chin Bow, 274 U.S. 657, 663 (1927), and the automatic citizenship of persons born in United States territories or on military bases is of much more recent origin."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
McCain leads Obama 47%-37% and Clinton 49%-40%. The Arizona senator leads the Democrats across the board. About 80% of Republicans are behind McCain. Only 66% of Democrats are behind Obama and 72% are backing Clinton in one-one-one match-ups with McCain. Currently, 17% of Democrats indicate that in a match up with Obama, they'd support McCain; 16% say so in a match up with Clinton. Seventeen percent of Dems also say they are undecided in a match up with Obama; 13% say so with regard to McCain-Clinton. Those numbers though could be a reflection of McCain being the presumptive nominee and Obama and Clinton still engaged in a fight for the nomination.
Floridian Democrats also weighed in on whether and/or how their delegation should be seated at the national convention -- 28% said the state party should hold another Democratic primary or caucus; 24% believe the delegation should be seated, according to the Jan. 29th primary; 15% say “the Florida Democratic Party knowingly violated the national party rules, so it should accept the penalty”; 13% favor a delegation that is split evenly between Clinton and Obama; and 20% say they aren’t sure.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain spoke at the James Baker Institute at Rice University and jumped back into his back-and-forth with Obama . After McCain criticized Obama for his statements at Tuesday's debate, Obama's comeback involved McCain's support for the war from the outset. And today McCain called that kind of thinking counterproductive to moving forward.
"So yesterday, Senator Obama said, 'Well we shouldn't have gone in in the first place, and if we hadn't gone in in the first place we wouldn't be facing this problem,'" the Arizona senator said. "Well, that's history. That's the past. That's talking about what happened before. What we should be talking about is what we're going to do now.
"And what we're going to do now is continue this strategy, which is succeeding in Iraq and we are carrying out the goals of the surge. The Iraqi military are taking over more and more responsibilities, the casualties are down, and we will be able to withdraw and come home. But we will come home with honor."
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Michelle Obama often refers to what she calls the "fear bomb" that was used against her husband in his Senate race, as rivals questioned whether someone with his name could be elected.
Today she acknowledged that it is happening again in his presidential race, and said it's an example of why America can't wait for a leader like him to be elected.
"They threw in the obvious, ultimate fear bomb," Obama said of her husband's 2004 Senate race. "We're even hearing [that] now. … 'When all else fails, be afraid of his name, and what that could stand for, because it's different.'" She said rivals use innuendo to play on fears. "Just as they're saying it now," she said.
But, she told about 200 supporters this morning at a restored theater in Canton, Obama won despite that "climate of negativity and doubt" in 2004, and even after standing up against the Iraq war. "We learned, number one, that when power is threatened by real change they will say anything to stop it," she said. "But we also learned that the American people can handle the truth."
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Here comes the general? The day after Tuesday’s final debate before the March 4 contests, a funny thing happened: The post-debate spat was between Obama and McCain, not Obama and Clinton. If you think about it, it's an extraordinary development. Although Clinton is still leading on Ohio (yet that contest is narrowing every single day) and is about tied in Texas (yet Obama has the Mo here, too), everyone seems to be slowly moving on to the general election; political inertia is taking over. Of course, Clinton hopes that wins in Ohio and Texas will stop that storyline -- and they very well might. Does anyone else have a feeling that one more game-changer is coming from the Clinton campaign, that they must have one more thing up their sleeve? They must, right? Maybe it's Edwards (this poverty tour seems like a big clue). Maybe it's one more televised town hall (although its one in Texas is bizarrely being broadcast on a sports channel). Something, right?
*** Too late? Overshadowed by the McCain-vs.-Obama storyline, Clinton and her campaign spent the day blasting Obama over a point she raised at the debate: that Obama hasn’t held any hearings at the subcommittee he chairs. "My opponent likes to talk about what he will do, but there was a perfect example last night about the difference between talk and action,” she said yesterday, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones. “He was given the responsibility of chairing what's called a subcommittee in the Congress responsible for the European countries and our alliance with them and as part of that responsibility was NATO… [W]hat you learned last night is he's never held a substantive hearing or meeting to look at what is going on in NATO, to take a hard look at what's happening in Europe and in fact the reason he hasn't as he said is because he got the assignment when he started running for president. Well, I don't think that's an adequate excuse.” For Clinton, this is a good line of attack. But is it too late? Shouldn’t she have been making this point several weeks ago? The talk-vs.-action hit needs seasoning; it takes weeks for a storyline like this to take hold. By the way, it’s worth noting that the RNC used this very line of attack on Obama yesterday as well…
*** The delegate count : The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,192, Clinton 1,036. Obama picked up two more superdelegates last night and this morning bringing the superdelegate total to Clinton 254, Obama 203. (Since Feb. 5, Obama has picked up 33; Clinton has lost a net of six.) That’s a grand total of Obama 1,395, Clinton 1,290. So when you include superdelegates into the mix, Obama has a 105-delegate lead.
*** Natural-born citizen? The New York Times today has a piece that hadn’t crossed our mind: Because McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone, does that disqualify him for being president? It doesn’t look like it, but constitutional scholars say it’s an interesting case. “‘There are powerful arguments that Senator McCain or anyone else in this position is constitutionally qualified, but there is certainly no precedent,’ said Sarah H. Duggin, an associate professor of law at Catholic University who has studied the issue extensively. ‘It is not a slam-dunk situation.’” And it looks like the McCain campaign isn't taking any chances by making sure Ted Olson puts together a legal opinion. Speaking of legalities, though, this matching fund and ballot qualification issue is perhaps a bigger headache than questions about his citizenship.
*** The moment we’ve all been waiting for : At noon today, from the National Press Club in DC, Ralph Nader will announce his veep pick. Question: After today, will Nader -- making yet another White House bid -- be able to draw TV cameras and reporters to any other event?
*** On the trail : Clinton holds a town hall at a child development center in Hanging Rock, OH before holding two events in Houston; Huckabee is in Texas; as is McCain, who makes seven stops in the state, including two fundraisers; Obama, in Texas, stumps in Austin, Beaumont, and Fort Worth; and Bill Clinton campaigns in Rhode Island and Dayton, OH.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 5 days
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The Dem front-runner and the presumptive GOP nominee sparred over Iraq yesterday. The Washington Post front-pages, “For McCain, the decision to pick a fight with Obama helps keep the presumptive GOP nominee from being overshadowed by the battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) for the Democratic presidential nomination. It also gives him a chance to undermine confidence in Obama's foreign policy experience before the Democrat can turn full attention to the general election. But even as he focuses on a potentially decisive showdown with Clinton in four contests next Tuesday, Obama has made it clear he won't ignore the attacks from McCain. Generating headlines about an Obama-McCain showdown could also benefit Obama by creating the sense among Democratic primary voters that he is on the verge of becoming their party's nominee and also that he can hold his own against the Republicans.”
The New York Times : “In the exchange of charges between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both essentially ignored Mr. Obama’s Democratic rival, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was campaigning in Ohio on economic and trade issues.”
The Boston Globe : “The rapid-fire, long-distance exchange underscored that the two consider each other likely general election rivals, even though the Democratic contest remains unresolved.” Wall Street Journal : "The disputes between the two men touch a variety of issues. On campaign finance, Mr. McCain slammed Mr. Obama for hedging on his pledge to accept public financing in the general election. ‘He committed to public financing. It is not more complicated than that,’ Mr. McCain said last week. ‘I'll keep my word. I want him to keep his.’”
Another March 4 line in the sand -- this time by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell : "Rendell, who is backing Clinton, said the New York senator would win his state's April 22 primary, the next major contest on the calendar after March 4, if she were to beat Obama in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. Without those victories, he said, the campaign will not get to Pennsylvania."
"Rendell accepted the conclusion of former president Bill Clinton, who said recently that his wife must win both states to keep her candidacy viable. ‘I'm assuming the only way to proceed on is, as President Clinton says’ to carry both big states, Rendell said in an interview. ‘I'm not close enough to the campaign, I don't know their monetary situation, I don't know any of that. But from a vantage point of a supporter who's not in the inner circle of the campaign, I think that would make sense.’”
More: "Clinton advisers anticipate that she will come under immediate pressure from prominent supporters to consider leaving the race if she loses on Tuesday. That pressure probably would be conveyed privately at first, but quickly become public if she fails to heed the message. A split decision Tuesday would be likely to lead to similar pressure, her advisers said. Only by gaining ground against Obama in the delegate fight would she find the justification to keep going. Aides described Clinton as realistic about her precarious standing."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON : So is Clinton about to get Edwards' support this week? She's doing a poverty tour . "Today, in the town of Hanging Rock, in the state's southeast, Sen. Clinton will for the first time devote an entire campaign event to poverty."
The Times looks at the increased role Harold Ickes is taking on the campaign. "Ickes’s battles have often been as much inside the campaign as outside it. He and Mr. Penn have a long history of enmity — they did not talk when both worked for Mr. Clinton when he was in the White House. In a campaign that often exhibits a decidedly corporate and somewhat antiseptic air — personified by Mr. Penn — Mr. Ickes is intense, emotional and, his friends say, idealistic. He barely tries to hide his view of Mr. Penn. ‘Many pollsters, many pundits — including our chief strategists, dare I say — didn’t think we were going to win New Hampshire,’ he said pointedly at his breakfast with journalists.”
The New York Times’ Gail Collins writes, "If Hillary Clinton were a state, she’d be Ohio. This is a no-frills kind of place, suspicious of glamour. Barack Obama’s promise to make politics cool again doesn’t necessarily resonate here. Eight presidents came from Ohio, and the coolest was William McKinley."
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MCCAIN : The campaign isn't taking chances on the issue of whether McCain was born in the U.S. Under the Constitution, a president must be natural-born. The New York Times : "Mr. McCain was born on a military installation in the Canal Zone, where his mother and father, a Navy officer, were stationed. His campaign advisers say they are comfortable that Mr. McCain meets the requirement and note that the question was researched for his first presidential bid in 1999 and reviewed again this time around.”
“But given mounting interest, the campaign recently asked Theodore B. Olson, a former solicitor general now advising Mr. McCain, to prepare a detailed legal analysis. ‘I don’t have much doubt about it,’ said Mr. Olson, who added, though, that he still needed to finish his research.’”
The Boston Globe : “The story of how the "Keating Five" senators allegedly pressured regulators to lay off a failing Arizona S&L became a major scandal, and marked a turning point in McCain's life -- the near-death of his political career followed by his eventual rebirth as a crusader for campaign finance reform.”
CONTINUED >>
In a New York Times op-ed , Michael Bloomberg said he wouldn't run for president. "I believe that an independent approach to these issues is essential to governing our nation — and that an independent can win the presidency. I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not — and will not be — a candidate for president. I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership. The most productive role that I can serve is to push them forward, by using the means at my disposal to promote a real and honest debate."
With Bloomberg officially declaring himself not running for president, the New York Daily News wonders if we could see an Obama-Bloomberg ticket.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The ad originally aired in Iowa, ran in Texas and Vermont before the March 4th primaries, and the Obama campaign says is no longer running in Texas.
"There's a one-minute ad on in Texas telling you how terrible things were in the 90s," Bill Clinton said earlier today. "Well, I think we did pretty well in the 1990s. …If you believe things were bad in the 90s, just as bad as in this decade, and you believe everybody should be eliminated from being considered for president if they did anything good, I think you should vote for him."
But the ad hardly goes that far. The following is the only reference to the 1990s, and it’s nothing new.
The former president objects. "There aren't many facts in there," he said at his last of four events in Houston this afternoon.
"Because what fights should we not have made?" he challenged, going on to enumerate struggles over the budget, education and labor unions that he chalks up as successes for Democrats in the last decade.
"Look, no one wants to go back to the past," he said. "But you have to understand the past in order to avoid repeating its mistakes."
John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times
interviews Ohio Gov.
Ted Strickland ,
Clinton's chief surrogate in the Buckeye State. They talk about last night's debate,
McCain's prospects in Ohio, and whether or not Strickland is interested in being someone's running mate.
From NBC's Libby Leist French Ambassador to the U.S., Pierre Vimont , has assumed a new and unexpected role since taking over as Ambassador in Washington last summer: political reporter.
The French are captivated by the race for the White House this year, and he is the one officials in Paris are going to first.
Forget Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. It is all Obama vs. Clinton.
"On a personal basis, we're being asked nearly every day by our people in Paris, 'What's going on?' Even to the point that it's becoming difficult to talk to them on the phone about [anything else]... ," Vimont told a small group of reporters today. 'Tell us about the primaries!' they will say."
"They want forecast and predictions," he added.
So Vimont decided he needed to see first hand how the campaigns for U.S. President were going. He traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina last month to observe rallies for Clinton, Obama and McCain. And he even asked for a seat to watch the South Carolina Democratic debate between Obama and Clinton -- one of the most contentious this campaign season.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ron Allen and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton wanted to talk about the campaign's upcoming economic summit meeting in Zanesville -- which will focus "not only on problems, but solutions" in Ohio where the economy is "unbelievably important."
"Inflation is up, prices of everything are going up," she said. "We are sliding into a recession." When asked what's the major difference between herself and Obama on the economy, Clinton replied with "experience," "specifics..." And she then outlined her plan for a moratorium on foreclosures and a freeze on subprime adjustable mortgages.
Regarding last night's debate, Clinton said she "drew some good contrasts" with Obama. "I was really pleased by it. I thought that once again we drew some good contrasts and obviously I was pleased to talk about issues that I, you know, care a lot about and know something about and thought that that came across."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton camp has seized on something the New York senator herself brought up: the lack of hearings at the subcommittee Obama took over in 2007.
"Last night, we saw a glimpse of the real Barack Obama – the Barack Obama who became chair of a national security subcommittee, put it on his resume, but did not hold a single oversight hearing because he was too busy running for president; the Barack Obama who spends his time talking about change you can believe in instead of change you actually can count on. Given the opportunity to take the reins of leadership and shape two critical areas of U.S. foreign policy -- Afghanistan and our alliances in Europe -- Senator Obama has done next to nothing."
Here is how Obama responded last night: "I became chairman of this committee at the beginning of this campaign, at the beginning of 2007. So, it is true that we haven't had oversight hearings on Afghanistan. I have been very clear in talking to the American people about what I would do with respect to Afghanistan. I think we have to have more troops there to bolster the NATO effort."
Below is the entire Clinton memo...
CONTINUED >>
In an on camera interview with NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Rep.
John Lewis -- one of the most influential African-American members in Congress -- has said he will support
Obama as a superdelegate. Congressman Lewis had endorsed
Clinton last year, but says that Obama's candidacy is a "movement and something in American politics that cannot be ignored."
Lewis has said his decision to change from Clinton to Obama was harder then his march across the bridge in Selma 43 years ago when he was beaten and bloodied by Alabama State Troopers. Lewis tells NBC's Andrea Mitchell he has put a call into Senator Clinton but has not yet informed her of his decision and has not yet told Senator Obama.
Adding one to Obama's superdelegate total, and subtracting one from Clinton, the superdelegate count is now Clinton 255 and Obama 201.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
AP : "William F. Buckley Jr., the erudite Ivy Leaguer and conservative herald who showered huge and scornful words on liberalism as he observed, abetted and cheered on the right's post-World War II rise from the fringes to the White House, died Wednesday. He was 82."
Bloomberg describes him as "the syndicated columnist and intellectual whose studied mannerisms, verbal flourishes and polemics energized the American conservative movement for a half-century...."
NYT said he "marshaled polysyllabic exuberance, famously arched eyebrows and a refined, perspicacious mind to elevate conservatism to the center of American political discourse... .
"Mr Buckley, 82, suffered from diabetes and emphysema, his son Christopher said, although the exact cause of death was not immediately known. He was found at his desk in the study of his home, his son said. 'He might have been working on a column,' Mr. Buckley said."
NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger adds in
Huckabee's response on Buckley's death: "Janet and I were sad to hear the news of William F. Buckley's passing. As one of the founders of the modern conservative movement, William Buckley helped turn the intellectual and political tide, shifting America from liberalism to conservatism. Our country, and our world, are better for his 82 years on this earth.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro With the pick up of Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND) today, Obama has now reached 200 superdelegates. He has cut what was once a 90-delegate advantage for Clinton to what is now 56 since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th. Since Feb. 5, Obama has gained 30 publicly declared superdelegates, and Clinton has lost a net of four.
Clinton maintains a 256-200 advantage in our overall superdelegate count.
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds... Dorgan (D-ND) endorsed Obama in a conference call with reporters, and stressed Obama's support for free trade. He also praised his call, though, to renegotiate agreements like NAFTA to include labor and environmental protections.
Dorgan also repeated the call of many other Red State Dems, who argued that Obama can help down-ballot candidates and appeals to independents and Republicans.
This is Obama's second senatorial endorsement in as many days. Yesterday, he received the endorsement of Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, the first former presidential candidate to endorse Obama.
From Mark Hudspeth and Aswini Anburajan COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Has the general election already started?
Obama , with the backdrop of a roaring crowd of thousands behind him at Ohio State University lit into
McCain's comments earlier today that he didn't know that "al Qaeda IS in Iraq."
Obama referenced last night's debate in Cleveland and explained Russert's hypothetical question on whether he would send troops back into Iraq to strike al Qaeda.
"I said, well I would always reserve the right to go in and strike against al Qaeda if they were in Iraq," Obama said. "So, you know, this is how politics works. McCain thought that he could make a clever point by saying, 'Well, let me give you some news Barack, al Qaeda IS in Iraq,' like I wasn't reading the papers. Like I didn't know what was going on."
Obama went on to lay the blame for terrorist activity in Iraq on McCain's shoulders. "But I have some news for John McCain," Obama said, "and that was that there's no such thing as al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq!"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann HOUSTON, Texas -- At a just-concluded event, Bill Clinton accused Barack Obama of "running for president since he got in the Senate."
The line was thrown into a standard spiel about Obama's argument re: avoiding the "fights" of the 90s.
A Bill Clinton fundraising email just hit inboxes, and it reads: "So let's show the Obama campaign that they can't win this race just by throwing more money at it. "
This on a day when he's slamming Obama's new one-minute ad buy in Texas. The commercial, says Clinton, paints a falsely somber picture of "how terrible things were in the 90s."
From NBC’s Mark Hudspeth and Domenico Montanaro Obama fired back at McCain while on stage in Columbus, Ohio, on the subject of Iraq and Al Qaeda.
McCain had gone after Obama this morning, saying, “…I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.”
Obama gladly engaged:
“I've got some news for John McCain, that is there was no such thing Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade.
“I've got some news for John McCain. I've got some news for John McCain. He took us into a war, along with George Bush that should have never been authorized, never been waged. They took their eye off the people who were responsible for 9/11 and that would be Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, that is stronger now than at any time since 2001. I've been paying attention John McCain!
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann HOUSTON, Texas -- Houston, we have a contrast.
Bill Clinton is fond of enumerating the differences of policy opinion between his wife and her main rival, often listing off their areas of disagreement on health care and trade. But residents of Space City USA were treated to a new "huge difference" during one of the former president's campaign stops on a day-long blitz of Houston today.
"Hillary has always supported the manned space program just as I did when I was president," he told a crowd of over 250 who gathered in a picturesque neighborhood park in a Houston suburb today. "Her opponent says we should downgrade man space travel and upgrade robotic travel."
The issue of space industry employment is key in a town home to NASA's largest R&D facility. According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Johnson Space Center employs 3,000 federal workers and as many as 14,000 contracted employees.
"There are 16,000 jobs and a lot of Americans' futures riding on this centered here in Houston," Clinton said today. "You have to make a decision whether you care about this."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The
Obama campaign crossed the one-million-donor threshold today. The ticker on their Web site reads: 1,002,842 people.
At last night's debate Obama said that 90 percent of his money is raised online in small-dollar donations, an average of $109. Aides have said that the campaign barely needs to work the phones, making fundraising calls anymore. Most of the work is done online.
Speculation on the Internet is that the campaign may have raised as much as $50 million in February alone. Staffers smile smugly when you ask about numbers, but have been tight lipped about when they will announce their February figures and how much it might be.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Obama's rally here at Ohio State University started an hour and 45 minutes behind schedule today. Though I'm told the crowd waited pretty patienty for the senator and didn't boo his introducers on the stage, which has happened in times past.
A snowstorm in Cleveland, which has brought a steady white flurry to the city since late Monday night, made the drive to the airport and taking off a cumbersome affair. The campaign plane sat on the tarmac for almost two hours as it was de-iced and the runway was cleared.
So far no events will be cancelled. The staff seems determined to stick to the schedule, no matter how delayed they are. The rally in Columbus was critical -- he has yet to campaign here. Next up on the schedule is a flight to Texas with a town hall in the Dallas suburbs focused on the economy and a rally at Texas State University late tonight.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy The big news from today's
McCain town hall in Tyler, Texas, is his decision to emphasize
Obama's answer to a hypothetical question from
NBC's Tim Russert in last night's debate about reserving the right to send troops back into Iraq if Al Qaeda was to set up a base there. Here is McCain's response from the beginning of the town hall and then Russert's questions and Obama's answer.
"I'm not embarrassed to tell you that I did not watch the Democrat debate last night," McCain said, "but I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.
"It's pretty remarkable when Al Qaeda is in Iraq, and want to withdraw from Iraq and then say you will go back to Iraq if they have a base there. That's -- when you examine that statement it's pretty remarkable."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro CLEVELAND -- Last night’s debate here had a very tense feel to it -- the combination of two very competitive Democratic candidates, two very tough questioners, it being the final showdown until the March 4 primaries, and there being so much at stake. Bottom line: Both Clinton and Obama were put on the spot and survived. Clinton came armed with her own material on Obama’s record (including some new hits like the lack of hearings on his Senate subcommittee) and tried to keep him on the defensive, but he handled the pressure. Obama might have had more negative YouTube moments than Clinton, because of the initial waffle on the Farrakhan answer (though he did clean it up pretty well) and his look to Clinton to answer the Russia question first; it was clear Obama didn't want first dibs on that question. But Clinton didn’t hit that question out of the park, either. She had the chance to show her real foreign policy chops and didn’t. And her answers on releasing her IRS records (don’t she and Bill have an accountant?) and releasing her White House schedules weren’t that strong.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how Hillary Clinton's Saturday Night Live comment had a greater point in last night's debate. ***
It wasn’t a game-changer: Given those things, it's hard to see last night’s debate as changing the trajectory of this race, and that’s ultimately good news for the front-runner Obama. He was a bit more defensive last night than last week and had more stumbles than in more recent encounters. But there was a reason for that: He received some very tough questions. The Farrakhan one put him between a rock (Jewish voters) and a hard place (some African-American ones), and the Russia question had the potential of making him look small compared with Clinton -- if she had nailed the question. But she didn’t. Clinton really flubbed that "SNL" line. Like the “Xerox” one from last week, it seemed rehearsed. And to echo NBC’s David Gregory, what’s wrong with getting the first question? It allows one to set the tone of the debate…
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Chris Matthews tells Keith Olbermann that Sen. Barack Obama’s thrill factor is missing in his debates and is only visible in his speeches. ***
A “civil” war: It was a contentious but civil debate (South Carolina seems so long ago). And no matter who ends up winning, both will probably be better nominees for it. It's hard to pick a winner. Clinton was more prepared, but Obama survived under some tough questions from the moderators and volleys from Clinton, and that's probably the name of the game for him at this late date in the campaign. And a final point: Obama being seated really helps him. He doesn’t have to shout into a microphone. He can deliver his subtle zingers, but with a calm, collected tone. Now on to the contests in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont
*** Obama's financial advantage: Watching local TV here in Ohio, it feels like Obama has a 4-to-1 advantage -- with SEIU, UFCW and Obama just blitzing the airwaves compared with Clinton. It's happening in all four states. In fact, per TV ad expert Evan Tracey, Obama has outspent Clinton $23 million to $14 million in the last 30 days. How is she expected to hold a big lead if she gets outspent this badly? The third party groups are like salt in the Clinton wound.
*** I’m sorry, so sorry, please accept my apology: McCain apologizing yesterday after a radio host who introduced the Arizona senator referred to Obama as “Barack Hussein Obama” was another reminder of how many apologies we’ve seen in this race -- many of them to Obama. Off the top of our head, there was Biden (for the “clean” and “articulate” remark), Billy Shaheen (for wondering if Obama ever sold drugs), Bob Johnson (another drugs reference), and now McCain (for the shock jock’s “Barack Hussein Obama” line). It reflects just how hard it is to run against Obama. As Peggy Noonan wrote earlier in the month, “Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.” NBC’s Abby Livingston also makes this observation: While some Clinton surrogates were late to apologize to Obama, McCain did it very quickly. If the Clintons -- of all people -- can get into trouble with African Americans for statements about Obama, then just think of some of the troubles McCain might have.
VIDEO: A campaign speaker's attack on Barack Obama before a John McCain rally prompted an apology from the Arizona senator. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. ***
On the trail: Clinton attends an “Economic Solutions Summit” in Zanesville, OH, then campaigns in St. Clairsville, OH; Obama holds a rally in Columbus and then campaigns in Duncanville, TX, and San Marcos, TX; McCain also campaigns in Texas, including town halls in Tyler and San Antonio, and two fundraisers in Houston; and Bill Clinton makes five stops in the Lone Star State, hitting early voting events in Houston and Austin and a rally at the University of Texas at Austin.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 6 days
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USA Today writes, “Aggressive cuts and thrusts over Iraq, health care and campaign tactics dominated the 20th and possibly final Democratic debate Tuesday as Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama angled for advantage a week before a crucial set of primaries.”
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann talks to a political panel about Sen. Hillary Clinton’s response about her Iraq war vote as something she wishes she could take back. The New York Times : “Questions about which approach Mrs. Clinton would take to sway voters were quickly answered as she immediately confronted Mr. Obama, and she was relentless throughout the meeting. She insisted on responding to virtually every point that he made - often interrupting the debate moderators, Brian Williams and Tim Russert of NBC, as they tried to move on. At the same time, it was one of the most detailed and specific of all the debates, with both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama giving long explanations of their records and views.”
The Los Angeles Times leads with the pledge from both Dems that they could opt out of NAFTA.
The Boston Globe : "At times last night, Clinton's frustration at her position was evident. Not 20 minutes into the debate, she expressed exasperation at being asked first about the North American Free Trade Agreement, an especially volatile issue in Ohio over which the two Democrats have tangled."AP : "The tone was polite yet pointed, increasingly so as the 90-minute session wore on, a reflection of the stakes in a race in which Obama has won 11 straight primaries and caucuses and Clinton is in desperate need of a comeback."
The Washington Post : "The tone of the debate was generally civil but rarely relaxed."
Reuters saw Clinton's difficulty in pronouncing Putin's successor's name, Dmitry Medvedev, as a problem for the former First Lady. "In a campaign where the New York senator and former first lady has stressed she is ready to serve as president from the first day, as opposed to Obama, the scene was reminiscent of past campaign debates where foreign policy missteps have hurt presidential candidates."
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews discuss who won the MSNBC Democratic debate. Time : "The 90-minute affair … had most of the same features we have come to expect of the last round of Clinton-Obama debates: strong jabs, deep dives into health care policy, pointed arguments over the meaning of words-and another cordial, high road finish." More: "At times, Obama showed a lawyer's flair for conceding the small points that aren't worth arguing about. This pattern was most visible in an unexpected exchange over whether Obama has sufficiently distanced himself from Louis Farrakhan's expressions of support for his candidacy. After Obama had said he has long denounced Farrakhan's anti-semitic statements, Clinton said Obama had to do more and flat-out reject his support. Obama, sensing a tiny opening that Clinton had carved in his performance, asked whether there was much of a semantic difference between the words "reject" and "denounce," but then defused the situation by ceding the point to Clinton and agreeing to do both."
Howard Fineman : "Bottom line, on my scorecard: a tie at best, and certainly not enough of a win for Clinton to change the dynamics of the nomination contest, which Obama is poised to lock up. Clinton wanted to be Joe Frazier, the relentless one, glaring across the ring for 90 minutes at the infuriating man with quick moves and tassels on his high-laced shoes. She complained about the referees, charged ahead as she had to do. She devastated him with a few power punches-but not enough of them-and didn't level him."
The
Boston Globe's Peter Canellos : "Clinton, who is trailing in delegates, used her strength as a weapon, returning to the specifics of her healthcare plan as if determined to expose the superficiality of Obama's. He used his own strength as a means of defense, repeatedly answering her challenges with high-road appeals to find common ground.
"At times -- such as when she pushed him to denounce Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in stronger terms - she seemed to go too far, but as the candidate who is trailing, she needed to take some risks and shake things up. In the end, she may have chafed some viewers but succeeded in taking the fight to Obama. Nonetheless, he seemed to emerge unscathed after skating through some verbal thin ice of his own."
Roger Simon : "Hillary Clinton as the inevitable Democratic nominee didn’t work. Hillary Clinton as the front-runner didn’t work. So how about Hillary Clinton as the victim? That was her theme at the Democratic debate with Barack Obama in Cleveland Tuesday night."
Ron Fournier has a similar take: “After trying to save her sinking candidacy with awkward turns of flattery and sarcasm, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton resorted to a new tactic in Tuesday night's debate: self-pity. ‘In the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time,’ the New York senator said, sounding more like a put-upon third-grader than a presidential candidate. The topic was her past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, an unpopular position in jobs-strapped Ohio. Rather than explain her evolution on trade, Clinton complained about the order of questioning and suggested that she agreed with a comedy skit accusing the media of favoring rival Barack Obama.
CONTINUED >>
About two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 16 points, 52%-36%. Now, per a new Q poll, that lead is now six points, 49%-43%.
The state’s primary is on April 22.
A new
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows that the contentious Dem primary is taking a toll on Clinton and Obama, as McCain leads both in national match-ups (McCain 46%, Clinton 40%; McCain 44%, Obama 42%). "The survey showed that McCain's potential advantages extend even to domestic issues, where he is considered to be most vulnerable. Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being best able to handle the economy. However, Clinton led McCain on that issue, 43% to 34%."
CLINTON: McClatchy’s Lightman writes, “Bill Clinton has been spending a lot of time in small-town Ohio. He is heading to Rhode Island on Thursday. From there, he may head back to some of the lesser-known dots on Ohio's map, probably Marion or Mansfield. Is this any way for a campaign to use a former president of the United States? Sure, because it's a way to keep him out of the spotlight and still useful to his wife's White House bid. ‘The Clinton campaign is sending Bill to safe places, to small cities where a visit by a former president is a really big deal,’ said Darrell West, a professor of political science at Brown University in Providence, R.I.”
OBAMA: Per the AP , “Sen. Christopher Dodd endorsed one-time presidential rival Barack Obama on Tuesday and said it is time for Democrats to join forces to defeat the Republicans in the fall campaign. ‘I don't want a campaign that is divisive here, and there's a danger in that,’ Dodd said, although he denied he was nudging Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to end her candidacy.”
Before the debate, Obama was calling for a more conciliatory tone in the primary, which, of course, benefits the front-runner.
Obama's hometown church is under investigation over whether they've crossed the political line in support of Obama.
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: At a minimum, the DNC, which has come under lots of criticism for its mediocre fundraising and bungling of the FL/MI primary mess, has given McCain one giant headache. He may eventually legally get out of this financial jam, but he's going to have to work for it.
VIDEO:
MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell talks with Howard Dean about the Democrats filing a complaint against John McCain over campaign funds The
Cincy Enquirer writes, “Radio talk show host Bill Cunningham's mocking and harsh criticism of Democrat Barack Obama upstaged Republican presidential candidate John McCain's rally [yesterday] in Cincinnati. Sen. McCain apologized for the remarks by the WLW radio talk show host. ‘I take responsibility and I repudiate what he said,’ Sen. McCain told reporters after the rally at Memorial Hall.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Overall, it's hard to see this debate as changing the trajectory of this race; Obama was a bit more defensive tonight than last week and had more stumbles tonight than in more recent encounters. Clinton really flubbed that "SNL" line and she did so early so it made it into a bunch of writeups; she should have saved it until it was more appropriate. It was a contentious debate, but civil; and both will probably be better nominees for it.
It's hard to pick a winner; Clinton was more prepared but Obama survived and that's probably the name of the game for him at this late date in the campaign.
We'll have more thoughts later but for now, good night from Cleveland.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The Obama campaign has launched a quiet offensive against Farrakhan and his endorsement. Obama held a private meeting with Jewish community leaders in Toledo, Ohio this past weekend, where he addressed concerns that he wasn't tough enough on Israel, on comments made by people like Farrakhan and his own pastor Jeremiah Wright praising Farrakhan. But this appears to be a thorn in the campaign's side that they are having trouble getting rid of.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro For the second time tonight, Obama has used Clinton as cover on another issue. He appears a bit wavering on foreign affairs. He didn't cite any details on Putin's successor and didn't appear to have a real solid grasp. Think about, for example, how Biden might have answered this question. And Clinton deserves points for attempting to say the successor's name. She clearly at least knew who he was.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan For the word-o-philes out there, Obama wins with the word denounce which is more applicable to use when you find someone's positions distastefulre·ject -a verb used as an object... de·nounce -verb (used with object), -nounced, -nounc·ing. 1. to condemn or censure openly or publicly: to denounce a politician as morally corrupt.
1. to condemn or censure openly or publicly: to denounce a politician as morally corrupt.
From NBC's David Gregory I have heard from many Jews who are worried about Senator Obama. Is he an anti-Semite? Is he close to Farrakan? His own pastor is close to Farrakhan. Tonight a strong attempt to assuage their fears. To say that Israel's security is sacrosanct is a strong pro-Israel statement. Beyond that, to say he wants to rebuild the relationship between Blacks and Jews is new ground. But give Senator Clinton for pushing him harder to reject Farrakhan. Here, again, he absorbed the blow, conceded the point and defused what could be a slip up for him.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama did a solid job of turning Clinton's criticism on not "rejecting" Farrakhan and instead "denouncing" him. She tried to go in for the attack when it looked like at first she was coming to his defense. But he disarmed it quite well.
From NBC's Chuck Todd To Obama's credit, he recovered a bit on the potential Farrakhan debacle at the end with trying to blur the differences; but Clinton is VERY quick on her feet. Obama clearly wasn't ready for that question.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama still hedges on whether or not he'd pledge to take matching funds. He said again that he is "not yet the nominee." But if he's the nominee, he said he "will sit with McCain and make sure we have a system that's fair for both sides." But this of course begs the question of why is he hedging? Is it because he actually won't take matching funds because his money machine is just too formidable now? If that's the case, that'd certainly be hypocritical. Or is it that he will actually take matching funds, but doesn't want to give the Clinton campaign a sub-rosa talking point with superdelegates -- that by taking matching funds he'd be weaker against McCain.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton saw the opening with Obama on Farrakhan and just drove a Mack truck through it.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Why didn't Obama simply say he rejected Farrakhan's support? That's an answer he's going to wish he had over.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Clinton's argument that "it takes a fighter" is interesting. It's the argument that John Edwards was making about Obama back in Iowa in December. And lately Obama has been trying to present himself as a fighter on the stump. Saying things like, "I will fight for you," its a new word in the Obama lexicon that has taken precedence lately.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Those watching the debate on local Cleveland TV got treated during the commercial break to a familiar face from debates long ago -- Dennis Kucinich. He's also on the ballot next week and so he's on the air now running TV ads for his bid for renomination for his Congressional seat. In fact, he dropped his White House bid in part because he was facing serious opposition for the first time. Unlike '04, he may not have had an easy plan B to hold on to while he kept rabble rousing.
From NBC's Mark Murray
That answer still makes it sound like he's waffling, although it's highly likely he'll stick to the promise.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's David Gregory Senator Clinton the fighter. This answer on having to be a fighter on health care is her strong suit. Her point in lampooning Obama's high-flying oratory is to say, I, too, had only the highest ideals about public service in Washington. But I know through experience, you need different tactics. This is her experience argument.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
On the campaign trail, Clinton sometimes likes to mention the difficulty of getting things done in the Senate because Democrats don't have a big enough majority.
These comments, along with the one tonight, raise interesting questions about Clinton's possible governing style and her ability to achieve the plans she's laid out. Would making her agenda reality as president require that Democrats have huge majorities in Congress? Is that realistic and what does that say about the ability to reach across the aisle? (It's an ability Hillary Clinton cites in talking about getting body armor for troops, by the way)
From NBC's Mike Memoli Worth revisiting something Bill Clinton said yesterday in Ohio that goes a step further than what Hillary said in outlining his views on Iraq.
"They have voted for the same things in the same way. ... There is a difference in when they started speaking out against the war when they were both in the Senate. She started first. This is a matter of record."
From NBC's Mark Murray
And Clinton answers back, "I was having a little fun."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro That was a solid body blow by Clinton on Obama not holding a single hearin gon Afghanistan despite that he talks about it being the front line on terrorism and that he chairs the subcommittee on Europe, which oversees NATO. While Obama's explanation may be realistic -- that he became chair at the beginning of his campaign -- doesn't it reinforce Hillary and Bill Clinton's points that he is inexperienced, that he has only been in the Senate for a limited time and hasn't cut his teeth yet. Doesn't that play right into the inexperience narrative quite well?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro I could be wrong, but I haven't heard Obama use this one before about having the same voting record as Clinton on Iraq once he entered the Senate: "Once we had driven the bus into the ditch there are only so many ways to get out." He then again implied Clinton didn't have judgment as good as his was, since she voted for the war.
On Pakistan, Obama was very clear in explaining his position. And then he hit Clinton again on voting for the war.
From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Mark Murray
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is this what Obama will continue to come back to? That he was against the war before it started to boost his foreign policy credentials. The argument hasn't caught on yet on his experience, but you wonder if at some point that will resonate. Though "change" seems to trump "experience" in these elections -- which was starkly evident by the overwhelming numbers of people in the CBS News/NYT poll that showed they saw Clinton as most ready to be president, but the majority of those said they would be voting for Obama. Really something.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton seemed ready with an answer and deflected it well, saying she anticipated that Al Gore would be president.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro ...she wanted the second question... Obama just used her as cover on NAFTA. He got on her coattails and when Russert went after his inconsistencies on NAFTA and whether he'd pledge to get rid of it.
From NBC's David Gregory "I find it kind of curious..." Senator Clinton wasted little time charging press bias. But what's wrong with getting the first question? I don't think she made a clear argument there. Getting the first question allows her to set the tone for the answer, why is she against that?
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Note Obama's comment on the idea that subsidies being inadequate. If he says anyone who wants to can buy healthcare, then how can the subsidies be inadequate? It underscores the nature of how much both these candidates are promising on affordability, but can they really deliver?
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones It's a good, pithy and valuable discussion, but I feel like I've heard all this before, including the 'this is too important line' from Clinton to allow the focus to remain on the healthcare topic.
This is clearly an important topic, but are viewers really engaged in this right now? Trading quotes from experts and soundbites? Are they just confused? Or bored?
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones adds... Laughter. Awe in the press file after the Hillary Clinton's SNL quip and mention of getting the first question. Is it bad to get the first question? I wonder how her response would be different had she gone second?
Great ad for SNL, though.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton must think this is good for her to attack the press, but I'm not sure that comes across well in just the second question of the debate to ultra-polite Brian Williams. That seems more a closing salvo -- like she finally wanted to get it in. Or she just thought it would work since there was a parody on Saturday Night Live, as she cited.
From NBC's Chuck Todd In case you were wondering, we weren't planning on having health care be the lead of our debate, but they digress.
From NBC's Mark Murray This is a good exchange. Clinton is shining on what she considers her top issue. And Obama has an excellent command of his plan and his defense. A good start to the debate...and we've had just one question!!! Scratch that: two questions...
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
But Clinton is inaccurate when she says there's "no difference" between their plans on mandates, since Obama has a mandate also. BUT Obama does not have a mandate for ADULTS; She does. His is on parents having to buy health care specifically for children.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama appears to be very comfortable going right back after her on health care, even dropping the word "whine." She's also got a tough, but not desperate, tone; about the right balance so far.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Obama trying to go for the kill tonight? We've heard about a lot of this already. But that Obama is lobbing the attacks (albe-them) gently. We've talked about Clinton blurring the lines. This is Obama wanting to make sure he preemptively addressed tactics strongly first.
From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Don't be fooled by the cordial tone. It all sounds nice, but Obama is tackling the mailers head on, defending them and perhaps baiting Clinton to get riled up?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Mark Murray CLEVELAND -- Sen. Clinton isn't backing away from her "Shame on you, Barack Obama" comments from the weekend. Earlier today, she admitted that she might have been a little hot.
She certainly isn't hot at this debate, but she isn't backing down.
From NBC's Mark Murray CLEVELAND -- About five minutes until tonight's Democratic debate, the final one before the March 4 primaries. Check in early and often for instant analysis and observations.
From NBC's Ben Weltman McCain in Cincinnati, "Willie" booked it out of there to host his three hour radio show. As previously noted by First Read McCain apologized for Cunningham's comments and took full responsibility for allowing him to appear at his event.
During the second hour of his show , "Willie" became Wild Bill when he attacked McCain for apologizing.Hillary Clinton . I want Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States. I am going to throw my support behind Hillary Clinton."
Overall breakdown: Cunningham attacked Obama. McCain apologized for the attack. Cunningham endorsed Clinton instead of McCain. And Huckabee , who one would figure would receive Cunningham's endorsement after today, was left out.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Obama and Clinton engaged in a good old fashioned slugfest over the political tradition of ripping off other people's catchy lines. Caught sampling liberally from the lofty rhetoric of pal Deval Patrick , Obama responded to charges of plagiarism by pointing out his opponent's occasional use of his favorite slogans, including the patented "Fired up, ready to go!"
Today, Clinton's No. 1 surrogate tossed out one of Obama's campaign catchphrases to distinguish his wife's campaign from her competitor's.
"This is change you can believe in," said Bill Clinton of the policies his wife has proposed. "This is change you can count on."
"Change you can believe in" is the central theme of Obama’s campaign, serves as his backdrop for speeches and is emblazoned on Obama T-shirts, posters and bumper stickers.
It's unclear whether Clinton was using the phrase deliberately. At a later rally in Grapeland, Texas, he stuck to the "change you can count on" contrast he's been using throughout Texas.
Clinton went on to mimic the argument of some Obama supporters that fatigue with the status quo trumps experience.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell today, DNC Chairman Howard Dean answered questions as to whether he would broker a deal in the Democratic race to prevent a protracted nomination fight.
"I think when someone gets to 2,025 it will be pretty clear," Dean said.
O'Donnell pointed out, "Well that's not going to happen in March or April, Governor."
"It could," Dean responded, "because I think you're already seeing movement among the superdelegates, the unpledged delegates and there will be more pledged delegates assigned as we go through this next round of primaries."
Dean ended with this prediction: "I think the odds are much better than 50-50 that the nominee will be decided before we ever get to Denver."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
“If they're willing to debate based on an invitation from us, consider it done, and we'll make it more formal by, let's see, its 2:30, give us an hour,” he said. (Note. “If that's all we're waiting on, it sounds like all they're waiting on is an invitation.”
He then jokingly started asking campaign embeds if their networks would host it.
Huckabee had said earlier that they had made it perfectly clear that they wanted to debate McCain, but the Republican frontrunner said they were unaware of that request.
Talking to media after a rally, Huckabee also said that Hillary Clinton was thoroughly vetted during her time in Arkansas, but may not have the experience to be president.
“She’s been examined far more thoroughly than her opponent in the Democrat primary,” he said. “But are there are still things about Hillary that the country would need to know before they elect her president? Sure, because it¹s different being the wife of a president and being the president. And I know that she’s talked about her experience, but you know, to say that being married to the president gives you the experience to be president would be like me saying, you know, that being married to my wife gives me the capacity to explain child birth because after all I’ve been married to her and she’s given birth to our three children. I’d probably get slapped in the face by her if I suggested that I knew as much about child birth as she does because I’ve been married to her.”
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain took the stage this morning at the Hamilton County Memorial Hall, conservative radio host Bill Cunningham had already created the news of the day. In his efforts to rally the crowd before McCain’s arrival, Cunningham went after the mainstream media and their treatment of Obama , who he called a “hack, Chicago-style, Daley politician."Bill Clinton channel ABC, and the Clinton News Network -- at some point is going to peel the bark off Barack Hussein Obama,” Cunningham said. “That day will come, then you’ll know the truth about his business dealings with Rezko, when he got sweetheart deals in Chicago and the illegal loans that he received.”Clinton , that I will treat them with respect,” McCain said before any questions were asked. “I will call them senator, that we will have a respectful debate, as I have said on hundreds of occasions. I regret any comments that may be made, about these two individuals who are honorable Americans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and Matthew Berger COLUMBUS, Ohio -- After Huckabee earlier said he'd like to debate McCain again, McCain said the Huckabee campaign has never contacted his staff for a debate. But he left the door open for a face-to-face meeting.
"I did not know that he had sought to do that," McCain said in Cincinnati. "In fact, we've had 16 debates since this campaign began, and I've been engaged in every one of them. So, I would certainly consider that proposal."
Huckabee campaign national chairman Chip Saltsman said here that the campaign had not officially sent a letter or contacted the McCain campaign seeking a debate, but reiterated Huckabee's words that the campaign had "made it very clear" they wanted a forum. He also said there had been plans for a debate but the television network scheduled to air it backed out.
From NBC’s Ron Allen LORAIN, Ohio -- Hillary Clinton is at a town hall here, listening to an elderly man vent about financial problems; he’s either losing or lost his house -- he was hard to understand because of an accent. It was a very odd moment, with Clinton standing just a few feet from him. It was a bit tense because he was so emotional. Clinton accepted an envelope from him and promised to help. She has two residents on stage with her who are facing foreclosures; they told their stories to the crowd.Obama : "Hope is not a plan...," in her opening her remarks.
Today, it was Hillary Clinton full of compassion and empathy for working people facing foreclosure, mountains of school loans, and taxes.
After anger, sarcasm, today it was empathy. At one point she said, "I got a little hot there the other day in Cincinnati...." and says she was really mad, because Obama was sending YOU false, misleading and discredited information.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Ohio and Texas are must-win states for Clinton and recent polls show Obama closing the gap in the former, although Clinton still leads, and show him leading her in Texas. Two other polls give the Illinois senator a double-digit lead nationally.
During the moment when the disabled veteran asked a long, difficult to understand question that seemed to have something to do with losing his home and being a good parent, Clinton held the microphone for him and listened intently as he spoke before accepting a packet of papers from him and saying she would try to help.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton has sunny predictions for his wife's performance in the Buckeye State.
"I've just been in Ohio -- looks like she's going to win Ohio," he predicted. "She's winning there. It looks good."
He later plugged her experience and change-making potential: "Change you can count on is coming from her. And you know it. You know she'll always have your back."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan CLEVELAND, Ohio -- With a silver head of hair, a DNC chairmanship under his belt and 30 years in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Chris Dodd endorsed his one-time rival for the presidency with the air of a senior statesman anointing the next nominee. Obama has the experience, the ability the vision to lead this country, to make a difference both at home and abroad," Dodd said, adding later, "The hour is getting late. That opportunity is not going to last forever. I believe the world wants to see [the U.S.] get back on [its] feet again. And I believe that Barack Obama gives us the opportunity to do that."
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell CINCINNATI, Ohio -- One of the speakers before McCain took the stage used some noteworthy language this morning.
Bill Cunningham, who I am told is a radio host here, repeatedly referred to Obama as Barack Hussein Obama -- at least three times. (Hussein is, as most know, Obama's middle name.)
Cunningham's tone was derisive on Obama's positions, and he also spoke very critically of mainstream media accusing the collective media of trying to get Democrats elected.
Rob Portman, former US Trade Rep. under President George W. Bush, followed Cunningham and lightly chided him saying, "You're out of control again." But then thanked Cunningham for supporting McCain.
McCain is not on stage yet.
*** UPDATE ***
The campaign says it invites radio hosts to "warm up the crowd" at some events but that Cunningham has no role in the campaign.
*** UPDATE 2 *** McCain repudiates and apologizes for the comments.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee said his campaign has been asking the McCain campaign to debate them and suggested questions surrounding McCain’s adherence to campaign finance laws raises doubts about his viability.
Speaking at a press conference that drew no reporters other than the six who travel with the candidate -- despite the national press corps in town for the Democratic debate -- the candidate said he wants to debate McCain.
“There's a race going on, and I wish Sen. McCain was debating me this weekend,” Huckabee said. “I wish we were gonna be in Cleveland tonight on stage or in Dallas or in Houston or San Antonio or Austin or somewhere between now and Tuesday having a debate.”
He said Republicans deserve a debate and that he was “disappointed” a forum between the remaining candidates hadn't been planned.
“We've made it very clear that we would love to have," he said, "whether it's a debate or a forum or Q and A, where both of us are there. I think any type of format would be acceptable to us and any location would be acceptable to us.”
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** What to watch for: The $64,000 question is: Which Hillary shows up -- the one we saw at the end of the Austin debate, or Ms. "Xerox" and "Shame on you, Barack Obama"? Certainly, this unknown tone she'll take at tonight's debate has a way of forcing Obama to be prepared for anything. It's not a bad place for her to be, in control of the tenor of this debate. Of course, is there such thing, after 20 debates, as a knockout blow anymore? Maybe not for Clinton but possibly for Obama. If he handles all of her shots, then he could put this thing away. If he wobbles, it could be a long six days for the front-runner. And keep in mind: The debate will be broadcast on all of the NBC affiliates in Ohio, and with weather likely to keep folks inside, there's a captive audience. More importantly, if you want a clue as to which Clinton is showing up tonight, think about this fact: Not a single Clinton TV ad is negative on Obama right now, in either Ohio or Texas.
*** Can you hear me now? Curious, who is Clinton listening to right now? When the going gets tough for a candidate, most end up ignoring the advice of those who they believe failed them for the last year and start only listening to a select few. Who are those select few anymore, besides husband Bill? Is it Maggie Williams? Ann Lewis? Mandy Grunwald? Has Mark Penn lost his place at the table? This may be why there are so many freelancers taking credit for Clinton saying she'll do this, or Clinton saying she'll do that. There's a lot of advice circulating, but we're guessing only a select few folks left in the Clinton inner-circle that the candidate is listening to.
*** Is a win a win? With tonight's debate and yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showing that Obama has cut her lead in Ohio from 21 points to 11 in about two weeks, it's probably worth posing this question: What happens if Clinton wins Ohio, but just by a point or two? A win is a win, of course. But is there something to say for making up nearly 20 points? Then again, with two new polls showing Obama leading Clinton nationally by double digits -- 51%-39% per USA Today/Gallup and 54%-38% per the New York Times/CBS -- the Clinton campaign would celebrate any win, no matter the margin. Nevertheless, according to our delegate math, Clinton winning both Ohio and Texas by 52%-48% would net her a combined 5-6 delegates. Yet toss in a potential Obama landslide in Vermont, and then her net March 4 haul could be as little as 2-5 delegates.
*** A split decision? While Clinton continues to lead the contest in Ohio, that’s no longer true in Texas, according to a new CNN survey. In that poll, it’s Obama 50%, Clinton 46%. A week ago, per the CNN poll, it was Clinton 50%, Obama 48%. Is it becoming more likely that March 4 becomes a split decision, with Clinton winning Ohio and Obama Texas? And if so, what does that mean? Does the race still go on? And speaking of those new national polls, how demoralizing is it for Terry McAuliffe to have to attempt to raise money today with what’s on the front pages of the New York Times and USA Today? Should Clinton folks be worried that rank-and-file Dems who view the two Dems equally favorably are simply falling in line behind the front-runner? No Dodd about it : While all the vanquished GOP presidential candidates this cycle have seemed to endorse someone after their departure (Giuliani, Romney, Brownback for McCain; Hunter for Huckabee), not a single Democrat has weighed in -- until now. Per the AP , Dodd will endorse Obama today in Cleveland, and an Obama campaign source tells First Read it will occur at this morning’s press conference at 9:30 am ET. And, yes, Dodd becomes yet another superdelegate pickup for Obama. Perhaps it’s only fitting that Dodd is endorsing on a debate day. It was Dodd's attack on Clinton on the driver's license issue for illegal aliens that seemed to be the beginning of the steady fall we've witnessed over the last four months since that Philly debate. All about Iraq: Though some may think McCain let something slip yesterday with his remark about his campaign potentially being a referendum on Iraq, don't buy it. This is what McCain wants this election to be about. He can't have this be a domestic election, it's not his strong suit so by giving straight talk on Iraq, it's pretty clear he knows if he can turn this election in a safety and national security election, he's got a boxer's chance. If this thing is about the economy, it may not matter who the GOP nominee is; it could be a potential disaster for the party. But the problem for McCain? If Iraq seems stable this summer, then that could force the electorate to not worry about it as much. It's a real box McCain may be in as far as the issue landscape.
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Clinton holds a town hall in Lorain, OH; Huckabee also is in Ohio, campaigning in Columbus and Mason; McCain is in Cincinnati and West Chester and then raises money in Tyler, TX; and Obama holds that press conference this morning in Cleveland. Also, Bill Clinton is in Texas.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 7 days
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The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a primer on tonight’s debate. “The large arena [at Cleveland State University] has been shrunk to an intimate theater holding 1,600 seats. The bulk of the tickets were distributed through each campaign.” Regarding the format, there are just a few rules. “Candidates will be asked to limit their responses to a reasonable length. There are no opening or closing statements.”
The New York Times helps tee up the debate. “After struggling for months to dent Senator Barack Obama’s candidacy, the campaign of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is now unleashing what one Clinton aide called a “kitchen sink” fusillade against Mr. Obama, pursuing five lines of attack since Saturday in hopes of stopping his political momentum. The effort underscores not only Mrs. Clinton’s recognition that the next round of primaries … are must-win contests for her. It also reflects her advisers’ belief that they can persuade many undecided voters to embrace her at the last minute by finally drawing sharply worded, attention-grabbing contrasts with Mr. Obama.”
More: "[A]t a fund-raiser Sunday night in Boston, Mrs. Clinton told supporters that in the coming days, she planned to highlight what she called ‘the experience gap’ between her and Mr. Obama. Indeed, her advisers said Monday that she planned to hit this theme during the candidates’ Tuesday debate, though they said she would try to avoid making harsh personal attacks on Mr. Obama, particularly since Mrs. Clinton drew widespread attention and praise at the debate last week for saying she was ‘honored’ to be on the same stage with him."
CONTINUED >>
At a Monitor breakfast yesterday, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes didn't pull any punches about Clinton's need to win Texas and Ohio. “While the campaign is still confident that the senator can capture the nomination, ‘if we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decision as to whether she goes forward or not,’ … Ickes told reporters at a breakfast meeting… After the meeting, Ickes said it would be nearly impossible for Clinton to end the primary season with a majority of pledged delegates - those determined by the results of primaries and caucuses. Instead, Clinton would need the votes of superdelegates to pull ahead of Obama, he said.” likened Barack Obama to George McGovern's 1972 failed candidacy Monday, telling a breakfast group of reporters that if there had been Democratic superdelegates that year, they might well have voted for someone else for fear McGovern couldn't win against Richard Nixon."
OHIO: Per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan, a crowd of 11,000 people filled a small basketball arena at the University of Dayton last evening, applauding Obama at almost every line and breaking into chants of "Yes, we can!" After the crowd had broken into an enthusiastic rallying cry yet again, Obama replied, "Yes, we can. We can do these things if you are ready for change. But I've gotta say in the waning days of this campaign, a lot of people are saying ,“no no no, don’t believe.” First of all, they say I haven’t been in Washington long enough," he said before launching into an explanation that attempted to discredit one of Clinton's chief arguments in this campaign.
TEXAS: Obama's secret weapon in Texas? Republican crossover supporters.
The New York Times notes how different and diverse the Lone Star State is, which makes it difficult to campaign in. “‘It’s like running a national campaign,’ said one veteran Texas Democrat, Garry Mauro, state director for Mrs. Clinton. ‘There are no similarities between Amarillo and Brownsville and Beaumont and Texarkana and El Paso and Austin and Houston and Dallas. These are very separate demographic groups with very diverse interests.’”
The New York Times/CBS poll , which shows Obama leading Clinton nationally, 54%-38%: “Mr. Obama has made substantial gains across most major demographic groups in the Democratic Party, including men and women, liberals and moderates, higher and lower income voters, and those with and without college degrees.” He is also seen as the Democrat most likely to beat McCain in the fall. “But there are signs of vulnerability for Mr. Obama… While he has a strong edge among Democratic voters on his ability to unite and inspire the country, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is still viewed by more Democrats as prepared for the job of president. And while he has made progress among women, he still faces a striking gender gap.”
USA Today/Gallup has Obama leading Clinton, 51%-39%. “It is the first time Obama has topped 50% and the first time he has led Clinton outside the survey's margin of error. However, the 12-point lead is at odds with a separate Gallup tracking poll, taken Friday through Sunday, that gave Obama a 47%-45% edge.” More: “In a general-election matchup among registered voters, Obama leads McCain by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%; McCain leads Clinton 49%-47%.” AP/Ipsos has it Obama 46%, Clinton 43%.
CLINTON: “Warning of the foreign policy challenges facing the next president, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday that it is not a time to pick someone who would need ‘a foreign policy instruction manual’ and likened Sen. Barack Obama, her rival for the Democratic nomination, to President Bush,” the Washington Post reports. “‘We've seen the tragic result of having a president who had neither the experience nor the wisdom to manage our foreign policy and safeguard our national security,’ Clinton told students at George Washington University. ‘We cannot let that happen again. America has already taken that chance one time too many.’”
"Clinton, entering perhaps the most crucial week of her political career, warned American voters yesterday to be wary of a Barack Obama presidency, asserting that the grave challenges posed by an unpredictable world demand a more experienced leader."
CONTINUED >>
"Bush predicted Monday that voters will replace him with a Republican president who will 'keep up the fight' in Iraq. 'I'm confident we'll hold the White House in 2008,' Bush told donors at the Republican Governors Association annual dinner, which raised a record $10.6 million for GOP gubernatorial candidates." MCCAIN: The candidate “said Monday that he needed to convince the American people that the troop escalation in Iraq was working and that American casualties there would continue to decline. If he did not, he said, ‘I lose’ the election,” the New York Times says. “‘Is there any doubt?’ Mr. McCain said to reporters on his campaign bus. But then he pulled back from his blunt assessment. ‘Let me not put it that stark,’ he said, explaining that he believed people would judge his candidacy on his ability to handle the economy, which has emerged as a pre-eminent voter concern, as well as on national security… ‘If I may, I’d like to retract ‘I’ll lose,’ he said. ‘But I don’t think there’s any doubt that how they judge Iraq will have a direct relation to their judgment of me.’”
Bloomberg News looks at the potential problem the Bush Administration presents McCain in the fall. However, doesn't McCain have the credibility to distance himself from Bush? Won't Democrats have a harder time painting him as a Bush clone, despite their shared positions on the war? Then again, there is that photo of the embrace…
The New York Times/CBS poll on McCain: “The poll showed Republicans settling in with their likely nominee. Eight in 10 said they would be satisfied if Mr. McCain won their party’s nomination, although just 3 in 10 said they would be very satisfied. Nearly 9 in 10 said he was prepared for the presidency, and more than 8 in 10 said they had confidence in his ability to deal with an international crisis, while a remarkable 96 percent said he would likely make an effective commander in chief. But misgivings remain among those who describe themselves as conservative Republicans, with a majority saying his positions on the issues are not conservative enough.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Domenico Montanaro indicted on 35 counts, which "stem from a tangle of suspected fraud involving business dealings, campaign finances and legislative conduct," per the Arizona Republic . "According to the government's case, Renzi cheated and stole his way into office, then abused his power to make money."
"I will not resign and take on the cloak of guilt because I am innocent," Renzi said per a statement released by his congressional office. "My legal team of Reid Weingarten and Kelly Kramer will handle these legal issues while I continue to serve my constituents."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray The back and forth over NAFTA mailers keeps on. In an ironic twist, union representatives from Ohio fired back at the Clinton campaign in a conference call with reporters today because of a mailer that indicates Obama’s record is inconsistent on NAFTA. Obama’s campaign came under fire over the weekend from the other side for a NAFTA mailer against Clinton.
The union member complained that the mailer does not directly quote Obama. The Obama mailer also did not directly quote Clinton; it quoted a New York newspaper’s characterization of what Clinton had said.
Further, the pro-Obama union members said newspaper headlines and characterizations used in the mailer against their candidate are taken out of context.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Ron Allen Clinton seemed to assume the role of commander-in-chief, for a "major" foreign policy speech. Slowly and deliberately she laid out her view and concerns about the world.
The world today compares with the time when Harry Truman took office, she began. (She never mentioned this, but four months after taking office Truman approved dropping two atomic bombs on Japan.)
Then, in one of the few references to Obama , while referring to President George Bush , she said we've seen the tragic result of a president without wisdom or experience in foreign affairs, and we can't let that happen again.
Later, while laying out her "New American Strategy," she said people won't need to guess whether she needs an instruction manual to deal with the world. Along with Iraq, she named Afghanistan and Pakistan as two other failures of Bush foreign policy. She talked about the emergence of China and the need to "level the playing field" for trade.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee said he believed the New York Times article linking McCain to a female lobbyist helped the Republican front-runner, and hopes the paper does a similar story about him.
Speaking at the Community Preparatory School Monday, he also ruled out a run for the U.S. Senate. After touring the school and speaking at length to a music class, he said that any moment could change a campaign, and it could happen to any candidate. Asked whether he thought the recent McCain article was a “Makaka” moment, Huckabee said “obviously, that one didn’t seem to make a big difference.”
“In fact, if anything, it's really helped John McCain, and I’m kinda hoping the New York Times will take me on and run a nasty front-page story,” he said. “It’s maybe the best thing that could happen to me; it certainly was to him.”
Huckabee responded to questions about him seeking the Senate with a strong “no way.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli PORTSMOUTH, Ohio --
Bill Clinton weighed in for the first time this afternoon on the direct mailers
Obama 's campaign has sent in Ohio, calling them "pure garbage."
On Saturday,
Hillary Clinton angrily denounced the Obama campaign's continued use of the pieces on NAFTA and health care, which she said had been discredited. Today, her husband explained the nuts and bolts her health care plan, saying that "everybody does have to be covered."
"It is not true that Hillary's plan forces anybody to buy insurance that they cannot afford," he said. "Nobody will have to pay more than a certain fixed percentage of their income because you are eligible for refundable tax credits to keep your cost down. But everybody does have to be covered or you will never get control of the cost."
He told a the audience at Shawnee State University, which included a large bear mascot, that they will "never get a chance again to vote for somebody who can make change in your lives this well." And he highlighted differences in the race, again raising the mailers. "She voted against Bush's energy subsidy bill, her opponent voted for it," he said. "She is for universal health care coverage, and his plan leaves some out. … And a lot of the mailings that have been sent out on her about health care and NAFTA are pure garbage, as has been pointed out."
As he continues his tour of southern Ohio, Clinton has been reminding each audience of the stakes. He started out his remarks by saying that if Hillary wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, "I believe she will go on to the convention, be nominated, be the president."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama leads Clinton 51%-39% nationally, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.
McCain leads Huckabee 61%-23%.
In the last poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, Obama and Clinton were in a statistical tie with Obama ahead 47%-44%.
The poll was conducted Feb. 21-24 and has a margin of error of +/- 3% for Democrats and +/- 4% on the GOP side.
NOTE: This is the USA Today/Gallup poll, not the Gallup Tracker poll , which shows a slimmer margin.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ROCKY RIVER, Ohio -- At a town hall here this morning
McCain told a crowd of well over 500 people that America's involvement in a "war" in Iraq is almost over. When asked about the benchmarks that would have to be met before American troops could start coming home, McCain was reminded of his controversial comments from last year that American troops might be in Iraq for 100 years.
"That reminds me of this 100-year thing," McCain said. "I was asked at a town hall meeting…how long would we have a presence in Iraq. My friends, the war will be over soon. The war for all intents and purposes [will be over], although the insurgency will go on for years and years and years, but it'll be handled by the Iraqis not by us, and then we decide what kind of security arrangement we want to have with the Iraqis."
Later in the event, McCain talked about how such a resolution in Iraq or Afghanistan might come about and how America should deal with countries that the government has deemed sponsors of terrorism -- such as Cuba and North Korea. In doing so he managed to take a subtle jab at Obama who has said that he would meet with the leaders of such countries without preconditions.
"I think one of the most overrated aspects of diplomacy is talks," McCain said. "For example, I don't know why in the world you would want to sit down with Raul Castro under no conditions for it. I have no idea what that would do except perhaps enhance the prestige of a guy who was really the enforcer for Fidel Castro for long periods of time."
CONTINUED >>
The "Yes, We Can" music video has become a viral hit with more than 13 million views online. CNBC/NYT's John Harwood sat down with the artist who produced it, Will.i.am of the Black-Eyed Peas. They talk about how it came about, what fueled the idea and Will.i.am’s next project about Obama.
Here's the CNBC video and the NYT video.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro VoteVets.org has a Web video hitting McCain on Iraq and tries to tie it to the economy. It features an Iraq veteran, who had a child after she came back and says, "John McCain said that it would be okay with him if the US spent the next 1,000 years in Iraq. A thousand years? That's some commitment to the Iraqi people, Senator McCain."
"This is my little boy," she says, holding her child. "He was born after I came back from Iraq. What commitment are you making to him? How about 1,000 years of affordable health care? Or a thousand years of keeping America safe? Can we afford that for my child, Senator McCain? Or have you already promised to spend trillions of our dollars... in Baghdad?"
Leaders of the group -- consisting of the Center for American Progress, USAction, MoveOn.org, the SEIU, VoteVets.org and Americans United for Change -- say it will pour in more than $20 million -- for ads and on-the-ground organization -- to draw links between Iraq and a struggling U.S. economy between now and November.
"It’s clear the crumbling economy is at center of people’s minds," said Eli Pariser, head of MoveOn.org. "We’re close to a recession, yet [the U.S. has spent] $500 billion in Iraq." He said that money should have gone to those affected by housing foreclosure crisis or toward affordable health care.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
The latest NBC News delegate hard count:DEMOCRATS
GRAND TOTAL REPUBLICANS
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli CHILLICOTHE, Ohio -- Stumping in the Appalachian region of Ohio,
Bill Clinton added a few hawkish flares to his pitch, imploring working-class Democrats to pay special attention to the candidates' security credentials.
"Usually in American elections we don’t think this commander in chief issue is a big deal," Clinton said at the University of Ohio-Chillicothe. "And we Democrats sometimes pay no attention to it at all. Just because we want to get the war in Iraq over, which we should, doesn’t mean we don’t want to be out there saying we love our country and we intend to defend it."
The former president did say diplomacy would be his wife's first priority in office, but not without some sticks should carrots prove not enough.
"Because we want to say military force will only be used as a last resort. Because we know the Bush administration has made mistakes in this area, we have to be credible on the military side to have diplomacy," he said. "We’ve got to be serious about rebuilding the military in order to do that. "
Even while touting his wife's fiscally conservative views, he revisited national security. "I ask you to take this security issue seriously," he said. "We need a good commander in chief. And the Democrats to win in November will need a strong commander in chief. Someone with credentials, experience, and a proven path to the future."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Crashing the party: By announcing yesterday on
Meet the Press that he’s making another White House bid, Ralph Nader crashed a party where -- at least on the Democratic side -- everyone is having fun and likes their choices. By now, everyone knows the story: In a 2000 race when analysts and voters believed there were actually few differences between Al Gore and George Bush, Ralph Nader ran for president; he picked up 2.7% of the popular vote; and, by most accounts, he took votes away from Gore in the closest presidential election in decades. Nader ran for president for years later and picked up just 0.4% of the vote. With Obama possibly on the ballot, who votes for this guy? Frankly, what room is there for him with any of the three candidates left? All can lay claim to being more reformers than any set of previous nominees in years. This could be Nader's jump-the-shark moment when he finds he has fewer supporters and donors (and volunteers) than ever before and ends up struggling to get on ballots.
VIDEO: Ralph Nader speaks with NBC’s Tim Russert of "Meet the Press" about the opposing candidates of the 2008 presidential election. ***
Clinton's changing tactics: As today’s
Los Angeles Times notes, Clinton is changing her tactics and her tone. Last Thursday, she was honored to share the debate stage with Obama. Two days later, she’s wagging her finger, “Shame on you, Barack Obama.” The next day, she's mocking him for his overly hopeful rhetoric. Which Clinton will show up at Tuesday’s debate? What got her fired up? Did the media's interpretation of her closing debate statement as some sort of concession fire her up? Whatever it was, something changed -- she's as aggressive as ever. Will this be a sustained attack this time? The one criticism inside camp Clinton that seems correct is that the campaign has never been able to sustain a negative attack on Obama. Of course, Clinton is doing it rhetorically, but her TV ads are all soft.
*** The fight over NAFTA: And speaking of Tuesday’s debate, we certainly know which topic might get all the attention: NAFTA. In previous debates, trade has been a back-burner issue. But with the upcoming contest in Ohio -- a state devastated by manufacturing job losses -- Obama is pointing to the Clintons for being responsible for the trade agreement, while Bill Clinton is blaming the Bush Administration for failing to uphold NAFTA’s worker and environmental protections. As we've noted before, nine times out of 10, a Democrat seen as pro-NAFTA in a Ohio primary would be the underdog -- which is why Clinton is pushing back so hard on the characterization that she is someone pro-NAFTA. She'd like folks to see her as ambivalent. Of course, neither Dem is calling for cancelling the trade agreement.
VIDEO: The war of words escalate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. NBC's Lee Cowan reports. ***
Ohio is tightening: Almost two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll had Clinton leading Obama by more than 20 points in Ohio (55%-34%). Well, that lead has been cut in half, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll -- it’s Clinton 51%, Obama 40%. The poll was conducted from Feb. 18-23. A
University of Cincinnati poll , conducted Feb. 21-24, shows Clinton leading Obama by eight points (47%-39%).
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the gap between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the race for the Ohio primary. ***
Obama's negatives: Bill Kristol’s New York Times column is the latest example of conservatives beginning to mock Obama’s rhetoric. We guess it’s getting close to general election time… By the way, Louis Farrakhan’s semi-endorsement of Obama yesterday was pretty much the last thing the Illinois senator needed. Toss in the blind photo Drudge attack of Obama today showing him doing what many American statesman do when overseas -- dress in local garb -- and it looks like this could be the week that the kitchen sink is tossed at Obama. Will Clinton be asked at her foreign policy speech today if her campaign is circulating this photo?
*** Delegate update: As the New York Times’ John Harwood points out, this week is first one this year that we haven’t had at least one nominating contest. Here is how things stand right now in the Dem race: The NBC News official hard count is Obama 1,183, Clinton 1,031. There are 30 delegates unallocated including 14 from Maryland, 10 from Colorado, and one each from Georgia, New York, Tennessee, Democrats Abroad and Hawaii. In our count of superdelegates, it’s Clinton 257, Obama 194. In the GOP race, McCain has 882 delegates -- plus 82 of Romney's, per the AP -- for a total of 964. Romney still leads Huckabee -- 286-246.
*** On the trail: Clinton, in DC, delivers a foreign policy speech and then attends a fundraiser; Huckabee campaigns in Rhode Island; McCain spends his day stumping in Cleveland, OH; and Obama, also in Ohio, holds rallies in Cincinnati and Dayton. Also, Bill Clinton is in Ohio and Michelle Obama is in Texas.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 1 day
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The New York Times’ Harwood looks at the anomaly of this week -- the first one in six weeks without a contest, and that extra time is helping both campaigns focus on the March 4 prize.
OHIO: The Columbus Dispatch examines the battle over NAFTA. “Trade and the debate over NAFTA has emerged as a major issue in the Buckeye State's March 4 Democratic primary, which could help decide the presidential nomination. Ohio has lost 257,600 manufacturing jobs since the beginning of 2000, a quarter of all the state's manufacturing jobs.”
"One day after Clinton angrily accused him of distorting her record on NAFTA in mass mailings, the Illinois senator was eager to rekindle the long-distance debate, citing passages from the former first lady's book as well as her own words.”
RHODE ISLAND: “‘Rhode Island is
right up there with Ohio and Texas,’ Clinton said to an estimated crowd of 5,000 in a gymnasium at Rhode Island College” Sunday. She also continued to criticize Obama on health care. "Senator Obama says I'm going to make people get healthcare whether they can afford it or not. That is false, it is misleading, and it has been discredited, and yet his campaign continues to say it."
TEXAS: Is Obama making inroads in South Texas with Latinos? So claims the New York Times .
Could Katrina evacuees living in Houston swing the primary to Obama?
Reuters : “In Texas, Clinton has history and Obama has buzz.”
Who's a flip-flopper ? The Washington Post notes that both Clinton and Obama have been flip-floppers. "A review of the two candidates' records shows that both senators have shifted positions on numerous issues as the competition for votes has become more intense. In some cases, the shifts have been subtle, a change of emphasis rather than an obvious reversal. But on other issues, both candidates are saying things that are quite different from their previous positions.”
In fact, here are each candidate’s top-five flip-flops . For Obama: special interest money (he's now happy to get labor support); public financing; Cuba; illegal immigration and decriminalization of marijuana. For Clinton: NAFTA, No Child Left Behind, Iraq, driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and the FL/MI delegate debacle.
The Boston Globe : “While political analysts said that Nader is unlikely to repeat his performance in the 2000 election, in which he won nearly 3 million votes, his presence on the ballot could still have an impact if the contest is close. In 2004, Nader won about half a million votes, including nearly 33,000 in Florida.”
CLINTON: The
Los Angeles Times looks at Clinton's shifting tactics. "With her White House prospects in jeopardy, Hillary Rodham Clinton has shifted from one tactic to another in trying to overtake rival Barack Obama. She tried TV ads saying he ducked debates. She accused him of plagiarism. She disparaged his huge crowds. She called his attacks on her shameful and dishonest. On Sunday, Clinton turned to ridicule. ‘Now I can stand up here and say: Let's just get everybody together, let's get unified, the sky will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing, and the world will be perfect,’ Clinton told supporters here at Rhode Island College.”
“‘Maybe I just lived a little long. But I have no illusions about how hard this is going to be,’ Clinton continued. ‘You are not going to wave a magic wand and have the special interests disappear.’”
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: The
New York Times looks at the distrust some conservatives have of McCain over his decision to be involved in the so-called "Gang of 14" which gave us the last major judicial compromise.
“McCain
swept all 38 GOP delegates awarded in US territories over the weekend.”
The DNC is trying to cause McCain a legal headache by
challenging his decision to pull out of the matching fund system. "If McCain were prohibited from withdrawing from public financing, he would be severely limited in his campaign spending for the next six months. Under campaign finance rules, he would be allowed to spend only $54 million; as of the end of January, his campaign had already spent nearly $50 million."
"The McCain campaign has downplayed the import of Mr. Mason's letter (of the FEC), saying the candidate did not use the guarantee of public funds as collateral for his bank loan and that he therefore has a ‘constitutional right’ to withdraw from the system. ‘It is clear to the campaign, as it is to a number of FEC experts, that no FEC action is necessary in response to Senator McCain's notice of withdrawal given the constitutional nature of the right,’ the campaign said in a statement yesterday. ‘In our view, the senator's letter is all that is legally required to exit from the system.’”
Again, does anyone believe the FEC will act in this calendar year?
Geraldine Ferraro, a Clinton supporter and the 1984 Dem VP nominee, defends superdelegates in a
New York Times op-ed . She also uses a talking point that we've expected to see become more prominent from Clinton land, but haven't: the idea that many of Obama's victories have come in states with open or semi-open primaries. "More important, although many states like New York have closed primaries in which only enrolled Democrats are allowed to vote, in many other states Republicans and independents can make the difference by voting in Democratic primaries or caucuses. In the Democratic primary in South Carolina, tens of thousands of Republicans and independents no doubt voted, many of them for Mr. Obama. The same rules prevail at the Iowa caucuses, in which Mr. Obama also triumphed.”
“He won his delegates fair and square, but those delegates represent the wishes not only of grassroots Democrats, but also Republicans and independents. If rank-and-file Democrats should decide who the party’s nominee is, each state should pass a rule allowing only people who have been registered in the Democratic Party for a given time -- not nonmembers or day-of registrants -- to vote for the party’s nominee."
The New York Post tries to take a look at the behind-the-scenes efforts made by Obama camp with superdelegates.
USA Today's Susan Page points out: "The three leading contenders for president have less executive grounding than anyone elected to the White House in nearly a half-century. Each candidate has scored impressive achievements in life, but none has run a city or state, a small business or large corporation -- or any bureaucracy larger than their Senate staffs and campaign teams."
Do you like speculating about running mates? Then the weekend's National Governors Association meeting was the place to be.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama claimed that Hillary Clinton had to take responsibility for the passage of NAFTA, because "she has essentially presented herself as co-president during the Clinton years."
Asked why Obama was attacking Clinton on NAFTA when neither candidate held an elected office to influence the passage of that legislation, Obama fired back saying that the "premise" of Clinton's candidacy "has been 35 years of experience, including eight years in the White House."
He argued that Clinton takes credit for "every good thing that happened" and said that it allowed her to be attacked on the bad as well.
"The notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn't politically convenient that doesn't make sense. If she suggested she had nothing to do with economic policy in the Clinton White House, then it would not be fair for me to bring it up but as you know, that's not the claim that she is making," Obama said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton has made no bones about the importance of Texas to the continuation of his wife's campaign. Today, at a get-out-the-vote rally in this Dallas suburb, the former president made it even more clear, saying that "her fate should be decided in Texas."
Clinton cited his wife's early political career when he told voters gathered at a blustery Arlington park this morning that it is "altogether appropriate" that the Lone Star State is such a crucial battleground for his wife, who launched a voter registration project here as a young woman. In the state, he said, will lie "her fate in this long and difficult nomination battle, where she has stood up to the most amazing kinds of challenges, where the pundits have danced on her grave repeatedly and she keeps coming back."
"The people who need a president know she'd be the best," he said, adding again that "is altogether appropriate that her fate should be decided in Texas."
Clinton also predicted that wins here and in Ohio would lead to a "handsome victory" in Pennsylvania in April. "Then I think she will become the favorite again and go on and win this thing."
The former president also mentioned -- for the first time -- the death of a Dallas police officer who was killed while escorting his wife's motorcade on Friday. Noting the loss and asking attendees to keep the fallen officer's family in their prayers, he mentioned "That also happened to me when I was president."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Huckabee showed once again that he gets the joke, appearing on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” to explain why he hasn’t conceded the Republican nomination to McCain and outstaying his welcome.
Huckabee appeared on the “Weekend Update” segment of the show, which made its return after a prolonged absence because of the strike by the Writers Guild of America. He chatted with anchor Seth Myers about the “mathematical impossibility” that he could win.
“The media loves to throw around the term ‘mathematical impossibility,’ but no one can ever explain what that means to me,” he said, eliciting an explanation from Myers that even if Huckabee won every remaining delegate, he would be 200 short.
“Wow,” Huckabee said. “That was an excellent explanation, but I’m afraid that you overlooked the all-important superdelegates, don’t forget about them,” he said. Superdelegates are only in the Democratic primaries, Myers reminded him.
“Uh oh, that’s not good news,” Huckabee said. “You know Seth, I was counting on those superdelegates.”
But the real joke came when Huckabee’s segment drew to a close. “Mike Huckabee does not overstay his welcome,” he said, referring to his candidacy. “When it’s time to go, I’ll know. And I’ll exit out with class and grace.” But after two rounds of applause, he was still there, smiling and waving. It took a gentle reminder from Myers to get him off stage.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Ralph Nader -- who won 2.7% of the popular vote in 2000 and just 0.4% four years later -- announced that he will once again be running for president this year.
Yesterday, when asked about a potential Nader candidacy at his press conference, Obama said: "I think anybody has the right to vote for president if they file sufficient papers. And I think the job of the Democratic Party is to be so compelling that a few percentage of the vote going to another candidate's not going to make any difference."
When reporters reminded Obama that Nader had said some not-so nice things about him, Obama replied: "He had called me and I think reached out to my campaign. My sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who if you're -- don't listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you're not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work. Now, and by the way, I have to say that historically, he is a singular figure in American politics and has done as much as just about anybody on behalf of consumers. So in many ways, he is a heroic figure and I don't mean to diminish him, but I do think there's a sense now that um, you know if somebody's not hewn to the Ralph Nader agenda then you, you must be lacking in some way."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama vigorously defended two negative mailers dropped in Ohio that Hillary Clinton says came “straight out of Karl Rove’s playbook.”
The mailing, one on NAFTA and the other on health care, raised the ire of the New York senator, who forcefully pushed back against them at a press conference earlier today.
Saying that the mailers had been out for weeks, Obama suggested that Clinton’s fiery reply this morning may be a political stunt rather than a genuine reaction. “I am puzzled by the sudden change in tone. Unless these were just brought to her attention, it makes me think that there’s something tactical about her getting so exercised this morning."
He added: “And unlike some of the attacks that have been leveled about me that have been debunked by news organizations, these are accurate. Sen. Clinton, as part of the Clinton Administration, supported NAFTA. In her book, she called it one of the Administration’s successes. And we point that out in a state that has been devastated by trade and has been deeply concerned about the position of candidates on trade.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas -- He's Bono.
Bill Clinton's late night rally here was a cross between a mob scene, a pep rally, a rock concert, and a Paris Hilton stakeout.
The former president appeared at the tiny new office of his wife's Corpus Christi headquarters tonight to fire up the campaign troops in advance of a morning rally tomorrow. Packed far past capacity, they hardly needed firing up. Several people had to be taken by ambulance after fainting from heat while waiting for him to arrive. Staff, and even a few well-meaning members of the press, formed a distribution line for bottled water to keep casualties to a minimum.
The crowd's long wait was rewarded with a speech that clocked in under five minutes, although the adoring crowd didn't much seem to care. But the chaos really began when Clinton ventured outside to greet the hoards of supporters who couldn't make it into the steamy former dance hall that housed the speech. A crowd-turned-paraparazzi, brandishing camera phones of all makes and models, mobbed the former president as he ambled around behind the building, alarmed staff and Secret Servicemen in tow.
Popping flashbulbs were punctuated with hilariously adoring comments from screaming women. (Example: "Ohmigod Bill! You're my new screensaver!") He even gave an impromptu speech to encourage supporters to vote -- twice -- in the March 4th primary.
But the true Bono moment came as Clinton reappeared for a brief moment before finally (to the relief of the Service and the press) climbing into the gray Suburban and calling it a night. He was speaking on his cell phone, and as the crowd began to chant and holler at the mere glimpse of the one-time Commander in Chief, he held the phone aloft victoriously.
Whoever was listening on the other end might be convinced that Corpus Christiis Clinton Country.
Or at least that Bill is a rock star.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan AUSTIN, Texas -- In the shadow of the state capitol that provided the United States with one of the most conservative presidents in recent history, Obama last night railed against the charge that being "liberal" was a bad thing.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli, NBC’s Ron Allen and Christina Jamison CINCINNATI -- Making an implicit comparison between President Bush and Obama , Hillary Clinton warned an audience this morning that change for change's sake is not necessarily a good thing.
The Obama campaign responded by sending along a quote from
Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson: "If you want to talk
about tactical political maneuvering, it's about one Democrat comparing
another Democrat to George Bush. That's the worst kind of tactical
political maneuvering."
After the talk, she continued to take the fight
to Obama while talking to reporters, displaying two of Obama's direct
mail attack pieces, which she called “blatantly false” and claimed that
his rhetoric doesn’t match reality.
"Let's have a real campaign,” she said, her
anger palpable. “Enough with the speeches and the big rallies... Shame
on you Barack Obama... Meet me in Ohio. Let's have a debate about your
tactics and your behavior in this campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Huckabee has tried hard to separate his paid speeches -- this was one -- from campaign activity. He flies commercial to the speeches and brings hardly any staff (two aides did join him earlier in the day for a media availability at Focus on the Family).
But what didn't change was the message. While he stayed away from direct references to his campaign, he did use many of the same anecdotes and stories, and expanded on his enjoyment in visiting the Alamo on Thursday.
Officials with the association, which provides leadership training to future public servants in Colorado, would not reveal how much Huckabee was paid for the address.
Huckabee also yesterday evening went to the Focus on the Family campus Friday for what he described as an “off-the-record and confidential” meeting with Christian leader James Dobson. Huckabee, speaking to reporters afterward, would not detail the talk, other than to say it was “excellent” and more personal than political.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Kelly O'Donnell John McCain said that Rep. Rick Renzi (R) would probably step down as co-chair of his Arizona campaign. McCain was unaware of the Arizona congressman's indictment until asked about it this morning after a town hall in Indianapolis, at which point he said that you always think about the family in these circumstances and he would look into Renzi's role in his campaign.
In other news, the McCain campaign says the fundraising email sent out yesterday that described the New York Times story as a "smear campaign" was its most successful fundraising email to date, but the campaign declined to say how much it raised.
Senior adviser Steve Schmidt said in response to questions, "There was a lot of outrage across the country on the story and the campaign has raised a lot of money in the last 24 hours."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama held a roundtable on college affordability and a rally at the University of Texas Pan American here in South Texas today.
Sitting on a high stool surrounded by about 25 students and about a dozen cameras, Obama went through the broad parts of his education plan, which includes a $4,000 tuition tax credit for students per year of college in exchange for 100 hours of community service per year.
"Michelle and I are very sensitive to the fact that the only reason we are where we are today is because we got an education. There were kids who were smarter than us more talented than us but they didn't have the choice that we did."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama's 17-point Wisconsin win? Per a University of Wisconsin Advertising Project study, he outspent Clinton nearly 5-to-1 on TV ads in the state. Overall, the four Dem and GOP candidates aired more than 8,000 spots in the state, spending a combined $2.1 million.
Of that amount, Obama spent more than $1.5 million; Clinton spent $300,000. That, folks, is quite a gap.
A few other findings, per a release:
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain -Obama fights over Cuba? The McCain campaign just put out this statement: "Not so along go Senator Obama favored complete normalization of relations with Fidel Castro's Cuba. Last night, he said that as president he'd meet with the imprisoned island's new leader 'without preconditions.' So Raul Castro gets an audience with an American president, and all the prestige such a meeting confers, without having to release political prisoners, allow free media, political parties, and labor unions, or schedule internationally monitored free elections.
"Instead, Senator Obama says he would meet Cuba's dictator without any such steps in the hope that talk will make things better for Cuba's oppressed people. Meet, talk, and hope may be a sound approach in a state legislature, but it is dangerously naive in international diplomacy where the oppressed look to America for hope and adversaries wish us ill."
Obama's camp has yet to put out a response, but here is what he said in the debate last night: "I support the eventual normalization. And it's absolutely true that I think our policy has been a failure. I mean, the fact is, is that during my entire lifetime, and Senator Clinton's entire lifetime, you essentially have seen a Cuba that has been isolated, but has not made progress when it comes to the issues of political rights and personal freedoms that are so important to the people of Cuba. So I think that we have to shift policy."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Here is some of the Q&A .
From NBC's Ron Allen and Kelly O'Donnell Clinton's motorcade in Dallas today. In a statement afterwards, Clinton called the accident is "devastating" news -- she feels "heart-sick" and expressed her condolences to the family and to the Dallas police department. Clinton placed a call to the chief, and she added that this reminds us of what people in law enforcement do everyday. "We respect their service."
VIDEO: A Dallas police officer was killed in a motor accident while escorting Sen. Hillary Clinton to a campaign rally. NBC's Peter Alexander reports. Clinton looked profoundly upset by what had happened -- a routine police operation she's probably been part of countless times as first lady, senator and now presidential candidate.
It's also worth noting that at least two officers have died in accidents while working in motorcades for President Bush in the last few years. The incidents occurred in Honolulu and Albuquerque.
As of this writing, the Clinton motorcade is rolling slowly down a highway. We're heading to another event. It's such a contrast to the way motorcades usually race through cities and towns....with crowds catching a glimpse of dignitaries. The press bus is silent. I think everyone is just stunned. Such an unexpected tragedy.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell McCain said he would not talk about New York Times/lobbyist news reports or the allegations again. He said he answered questions at his press conference yesterday and stressed that he is "moving on."
He was asked to react to a White House spokesman's comments today that the Times has a record of "dropping bombshells" on Republican presidential candidates. McCain declined and when pressed that his campaign has been going after the paper, McCain responded, "not anymore."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** No knockout punch : As for the big picture, the question was: Did Clinton do anything last night to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer was clearly no. Did she potentially win this debate on points? Perhaps. But once again, it’s telling that she no longer seems SO much better than he is on the debate stage. Clinton had a couple of good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was a bit more uneven -- at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions (although it might have been that cold he was battling). He was good, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary; ask us again later about his Cuba answer for the general) and more importantly, the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can Xerox) seemed to fall flat.
*** Not going for the jugular : But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one last night. And this is how this debate will be judged. Frankly, Clinton seemed reluctant to totally go for the jugular -- like on the question of whether or not Obama is NOT qualified to be commander-in-chief. Why? Is it too soon to go that negative against Obama and she'll wait until next week’s debate? Or does she realize it's possible she won't be the nominee and she doesn't want the blame for giving McCain his best talking point in a match-up against Obama. Imagine if she had said Obama's not ready for the job. McCain would probably repeat that line every day between now and November. By contrast, Obama doesn't shy away from basically making the case that she can't bring the country together. Hillary’s closing line : Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her, but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. Was she showing some vulnerability -- a la New Hampshire -- that might actually help her with some undecided voters? The Clinton campaign loved her closing remarks and sent a YouTube of it. But combine this last statement with her lack of negative attacks on Obama throughout the debate. As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder notes, "This was the night where we all learned that Hillary Clinton understands the moment in history we are in, and that she is smart enough and gracious enough to realize that her party is more important than personal vanity, that there are things she just cannot say about Obama because it would hurt him in the fall, and that more likely than not, she will not win the nomination."
*** Surviving the story, but… : McCain more than survived the day after the New York Times broke. In fact, even nemesis Rush Limbaugh rushed to McCain’s side, and the campaign raised money off of it. But it was other news that could give McCain a headache today. Long story short, McCain might NOT have opted out of the primary matching fund system, which could limit the amount of money he can raise and spend before the GOP convention. It’s a complicated story, and it’s unlikely the FEC will actually be able to do anything soon, but it’s all a bit ironic - given the grief McCain’s folks have given Obama for seeming to waffle on whether he will accept matching funds for the general election.
*** Speaking of surviving: Commentary’s Jennifer Rubin makes a great point: "Who says McCain’s coziness with the media didn’t pay off? Aside from the fact he literally is raising money on the Times, the vast majority of the mainstream media, not to mention both liberal and conservative bloggers, took his side or at least were highly critical of the Times. Isn’t that the opposite of what the talk show hosts are saying (i.e. it never pays to cultivate the media)? I doubt any other Republican would have been as effective or adept at beating back a potentially very damaging story in less than 24 hours." She may be absolutely right. Rush, a question for ya: Would any other Republican have gotten the same benefit of the doubt from so many members of the so-called MSM?
*** On the trail : Clinton campaigns in Dallas before heading to Ohio, where she holds rallies in Columbus and Toledo; McCain holds a town hall then a media avail in Indianapolis, IN; and Obama stays in Texas, stumping in the Rio Grande Valley, Corpus Christi, and Austin (where he attends a downtown evening rally).
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 4
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The Austin American-Statesman writes that Clinton and Obama “affably two-stepped for half a debate in Austin on Thursday night before bursting into prickly exchanges over which of them is better poised to lead the country after two terms by President Bush.”
The Houston Chronicle says the debate "offered few surprises Thursday as they tangled over universal health care and who would be best able to serve as president on the first day in office. Clinton tried to portray Obama as a candidate lacking in experience to handle the office, but he described her as a candidate embedded in a type of politics that has resulted in gridlock in Washington."
The AP : “It was an unexpectedly gracious moment in a debate that was supposed to be a game changer for Clinton in the run-up to crucial primaries in Texas and Ohio March 4. After losing 11 straight contests to Obama in a race now clearly breaking his way, the former first lady chose the high road and even delivered what sounded to many like the dress rehearsal for a campaign valedictory address.” Washington Post: "The Democratic debate began politely but gathered force in the closing portions with pointed exchanges on substantive issues and about the traits required of a president. The forum closed with a flourish, after the candidates were asked to describe how they had dealt with crises in their lives."
CONTINUED >>
The latest
Washington Post/ABC polls in Ohio and Texas show Obama making dramatic gains on Clinton, pulling even in Texas (Clinton 48%, Obama 47%) and to high single digits in Ohio (Clinton 50%, Obama 43%). FYI: the poll was conducted mostly before the results of the Wisconsin primary were known.
HUCKABEE : The Houston Chronicle called Huckabee's crowd at his Texas event "enthusiastic."
MCCAIN : The New York Times’ Bumiller pulled the duty of having to cover the fallout of the NYT story against McCain. The piece took pains to note that John Weaver refused to talk to the paper yesterday.
Editors and reporters who worked on The Times’s recent article about Senator John McCain will answer questions from readers .”
Politico's Martin and Allen note how McCain did a good job "turning the tables" on the Times.
The campaign even decided to raise money off the New York Times story.
The AP’s analysis : “The allegations in the Thursday report in the Times -- and a story in The Washington Post -- contradict core themes of McCain's campaign -- that he would bring honor and integrity to the White House as well as a record of changing business-as-usual Washington ways.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Here's a story that will make the rounds among insiders because of some of the eye-popping numbers being made at a time when the campaign is strapped for cash. Here's what will be the focus: "The high-priced senior consultants to Mrs. Clinton, of New York, have emerged as particular targets of complaints, given that they conceived and executed a political strategy that has thus far proved unsuccessful. The firm that includes Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and pollster, and his team collected $3.8 million for fees and expenses in January; in total, including what the campaign still owes, the firm has billed more than $10 million for consulting, direct mail and other services, an amount other Democratic strategists who are not affiliated with either campaign called stunning.
Howard Wolfson, the communications director and a senior member of the advertising team, earned nearly $267,000 in January. His total, including the campaign’s debt to him, tops $730,000. The advertising firm owned by Mandy Grunwald, the longtime media strategist for both Mrs. Clinton and Bill Clinton, the former president, has collected $2.3 million in fees and expenses, and is still owed another $240,000."
The New York Post adds, “Hillary Rodham Clinton's free-spending campaign blew a whopping $95,000 at a low-end supermarket-deli chain last month in Iowa -- a telling sign of why she can no longer cut the mustard financially against Barack Obama in critical states.” OBAMA : Ever-so-slowly, Obama's run-ins with a couple of notorious '60s radicals is starting to seep into the MSM . "In 1995, State Senator Alice Palmer introduced her chosen successor, Barack Obama, to a few of the district’s influential liberals at the home of two well known figures on the local left: William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn." More: "Obama’s connections to Ayers and Dorhn have been noted in some fleeting news coverage in the past. But the visit by Obama to their home-part of a campaign courtship-reflects more extensive interaction than has previously reported.”
CONTINUED >>
Democrats Abroad and its seven delegates weighed in, and Obama beat Clinton with 65% of the vote. The AP allocated 2.5 delegates to Obama and 2 to Clinton. There are 2.5 to be allocated at an April meeting. _primary/
Obama picked up the endorsement of a Massachusetts superdelegate .
From NBC's Chuck Todd This was a debate that had few fireworks. Early on, Obama set the tone and seemed to almost dare Clinton to be confrontational as he was dripping with nice things to say about her. Clinton took the cue and the first 45 minutes of the debate was a buddy picture with each complimenting the other (though Obama did it more often than she did).
But thanks to a question by CNN's John King, the two did exchange some not-so-niceties. From health care to the war of words to Iraq, the two candidates did show they have some disagreements. It was still a rather tame exchange.
As for the big picture, the question for everyone watching this debate is: Did Clinton do anything tonight to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer is no. Did she potentially win this debate on points; I think so; it was close but she had a couple of VERY good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was uneven, at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions. It may be because he was a bit stuffed up; he was good tonight, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary) and more importantly the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can xerox) seemed to fall flat.
But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one tonight. And this is how this debate will be judged. Frankly, she seemed reluctant to totally go for the jugular. Take, for instance, the question to her asking whether she believed Obama was NOT qualified to be Commander in Chief. As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder noted to me, she wouldn't answer that question; instead, she made a positive case for herself but didn't make the case against him. Why? Is it too soon to go that negative against Obama and she'll wait until next week or does she realize it's possible she won't be the nominee and she doesn't want the blame for giving McCain his best talking point in a matchup with Obama. Imagine, frankly, had she said, Obama's not ready for the job. McCain would probably repeat that line every day between now and November. Meanwhile, Obama doesn't shy away from basically making the case that she can't bring the country together.
Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. I wonder if showing some vulnerability might actually help her with some undecided voters.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro We've talked on horse race that Obama has had a pretty charmed political life from his fortunate Senate run to not having a real "crisis" in this campaign. Clinton, however, has had her back to the wall and has her back to the wall.
But they were asked a question on having faced crisis in their lives. Obama focused on his biography talking about, "Learning to take responsibility for my own actions" and atoning for them by his choices of employment.
Clinton said, "I think everybody here knows I've lived through some crises," but said that those "challenges ... are nothing compared" to what many Americans' she has met face daily. Then she made a hard pivot that resulted in a handshake and her passion for why she's running. Not sure what to make of it.
From NBC's Mark Murray
But is she focusing too much on South Texas, especially since that area (because of the Texas' delegate rules) doesn't award as many delegates as other regions in the state do?
She does head to Dallas tomorrow, however...
From NBC's Chuck Todd As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder was noting me in an email exchange, Clinton did not take the bait of the question on the Commander in Chief question; she never did say Obama wasn't qualified; she simply proactively made the case for herself. She's doing Obama a favor if he's the nominee by not directly calling him unqualified.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton has come up with a very effective sales pitch on health care by comparing it to Social Security and Medicare.
From NBC's Chuck Todd So far, the RNC has sent out six anti-Obama releases; They've sent nothing out against Clinton; The Clinton and Obama campaigns have exchanged approx. 3 attack releases each, making the RNC press shop the busiest of the three. BTW, not a single McCain release but then again, they have their hands full today.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- After Clinton's "change you and Xerox" comment, Obama mostly stayed about the fray -- and spent several minutes talking about health care. (Perhaps a chance to display more policy?)
But as my colleague Domenico Montanaro pointed out, Obama finally pulled out the Jim Cooper card -- the Tennessee Democratic congressman whom the Clinton Administration isolated during the health-care debate of the 1990s. It was a big chance from the November Nevada debate, when Clinton went after Obama on health-care. And he responded by talking about mandates.
This time, he talked about mandates -- but also brought up the Clinton health-care failures of the '90s.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro After Obama gave a pretty good answer on Words-gate, dismissing it as being given a line by one of his national campaign co-chairs, Clinton came back and said, words should be your own and then said that is not "change you can believe in" (Obama's slogan), that's "change you can xerox." That is a new one, but will that work? She's also now gone after him on health care again. Will that work?
From NBC's Chuck Todd We've finally had our first real exchange of this debate and it appears Obama's crowd advantage is benefitting him in getting the best of Clinton so far on this back-n-forth over words.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro As Clinton has asked for more debates, isn't this one proof that we've heard it all before? The first 45 minutes offered more of the same, as these candidates would say.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- Hearing both Clinton and Obama talk about comprehensive immigration reform, it's absolutely clear that this WON'T be a general election question -- with McCain as the GOP nominee.
The question is: How does a Republican Party that has campaigned against "amnesty" in the past two years adapt to that?
From NBC's Chuck Todd The RNC has yet to send out an attack release on Clinton; but they've sent at least three out on Obama that I've seen.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Obama a little like the old Dean Smith North Carolina teams now. He's got limited air time left with Clinton and as long as he holds the ball out, he wins. The clock is definitely against Hillary, and there's no shot clock.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama's answer about meeting with world leaders and taking an active role in diplomacy can easily be taken out of context and used as a sledgehammer against him. Obama just said that a presidential meeting shouldn't be used in such a way that it makes America look like it thinks they are better than everyone else. But there are a lot of Americans who want to believe America is a shining city upon a hill. Anticipate an RNC attack on this Obama line later tonight or tomorrow.
From NBC's Andy Merten Maybe it's the geographic location of this debate, but Clinton avoided saying, "The era of cowboy diplomacy is over." This is something she usually says on the stump to describe President Bush's foreign policy.
From NBC's Chuck Todd The two answers Clinton and Obama gave on Cuba are going to play VERY differently in South Florida. McCain's campaign is no doubt taking copious notes on this one because we're guessing McCain's campaign believes they can exploit Obama's Cuba position to a much greater extent in a potential battle for Florida's 27 electoral votes than Clinton's position.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- This question about whether Clinton would meet with Raul Castro brings back memories of the July YouTube debate, when Clinton and Obama sparred over meeting with unsavory world leaders.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting early tactic by Obama, he apparently is trying to disarm Clinton by complimenting her and trying to set a softer tone. Also, he appears to be hugging her on the issues; why hasn't she hugged him on his appeal as much as he apparently is now doing with her?
From NBC's Chuck Todd Just noting... Obama acknowledged Clinton, but Clinton did not acknowledge Obama in the opening statements.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- She pays respect to South Texas, Barbara Jordan, and Ann Richards -- which gets nice applause from what appears to be a bit of a pro-Obama crowd.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Huckabee sat down for dinner at Mi Tierra here, and ran into Bill Clinton , who is campaigning for his wife, campaign aides said today.
Reporters weren't traveling with Huckabee and his wife between their afternoon visit to the Alamo and evening rally at St. Mary's University, but campaign aides said the meeting at Mi Tierra was random, not planned.
The two men have a lot in common -- both were born in Hope, AR and went on to become governor of the state. However, Huckabee has been poking fun at his predecessor on the campaign trail, saying that he has taken on the Clinton machine and won, and asking voters to take a second chance on a Hope native.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Clinton campaign continues to sport new bells and whistles, courtesy of the candidate's No. 1 surrogate. In Texas today, former President Clinton used that theme to re-make a comparison between his wife and another veteran of the Oval Office -- a parallel that once caused controversy in the bitter days leading up to the South Carolina primary.
"I like everybody who’s run for president this year," Clinton said at rally here. "I like to listen to Senator Obama give a speech. I’m glad he’s incited so many people, excited people, and gotten them involved in politics. I mean, I value that."
But then he added, "President Johnson was not generally viewed as a great orator. But when he did great things he gave great speeches." Clinton went on to say the same of Truman's oratory.
Clinton's comments came as he continues to thump Obama for being heavy on talk and light on results. He said that "If you want the feeling of change, you're more likely to vote for somebody else. [But] if you want a change-maker, you're more likely to embrace her."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Washington Post/ABC poll has Clinton and Obama virtually tied in Texas (Clinton 48%, Obama 47%), while Clinton has a 50%-43% lead in Ohio.
Per the Post: "The closeness of the races in Texas and Ohio underscores the challenges facing Clinton over the next 12 days of campaigning as she seeks to end Obama's double-digit winning streak in their battle for the Democratic nomination. Those victories have given Obama a lead in delegates to the national convention and have put Clinton's candidacy at risk unless she can rack up a string of big victories of her own."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy John McCain stuck to his published schedule by touring a Ford Motor plant here this afternoon.
But the real news came when he decided to cancel a planned press conference scheduled for after his tour. Instead, McCain headed straight to a finance event in Detroit, leaving the traveling press corps to spin their wheels in a hotel until departing for Indianapolis later in the evening.
This afternoon his campaign manager Rick Davis even sent out a fundraising email linking the Times to MoveOn.org in an attempt to rally the base behind McCain and against the Times.
"The New York Times -- the newspaper that gave MoveOn.org a sweetheart deal to run advertisements attacking General Petraeus -- has shown once again that it cannot exercise good journalistic judgment when it comes to dealing with a conservative Republican," Davis wrote.
McCain won't publicly face the media again until tomorrow morning, following a town hall in Indianapolis, at which time I'm sure there will be many more questions to answer. After that, McCain heads back to DC where he is supposed to address the Republican Governor's Association on Saturday night.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt held a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters on the press plane where he continued the message that the NYT story is about bad journalism and not about the senator. He said the McCain camp was very angry last night.
Today, the campaign's mood has moved from anger to the buzz word of the day (as evident from this morning's press conference), disappointment. "We think it reads like a tabloid gossip sheet."
The campaign continues to try to explain the release of the article as a result of The New Republic's behind-the-scenes story that was reported to release on Monday. "My proposition that what happened here is that a very quick decision was made," Schmidt said.
He also scolded the paper about the higher standards they were supposed to hold in a "post- Jayson Blair and post-Judith Miller" world. "I think all of you should look at what was written in the newspaper about 'The New Times." This was extensively reported. That went out the window yesterday."
