February 2008 - Posts
From NBC's Lisa Myers and Jim Popkin Sen. Hillary Clinton has declined to return $170,000 in campaign contributions from individuals at a company accused of widespread sexual harassment, and whose CEO is a disbarred lawyer with a criminal record, federal campaign records show.
CONTINUE READING ON NBC NEWS' INVESTIGATIVE BLOG DEEP BACKGROUND
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee tried his hand at roping cattle Friday, but didn't get very far.
With two bails of hay with cow heads taking the place of the real thing, Huckabee received a quick lesson at the Fort Yards Stockyard and then had a try. He seemed to have an issue snapping his wrist, although he was better at the lassooing.
As he tried unsuccessfully, he put things in perspective.
"Ok, you're laughing at me," he said. "You think John McCain could do this better."
His wife, Janet, took aim at the other bail of hay, and lassoed the cow the first time. The governor never got it right.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Here's the Obama response to the Clinton "Children" ad...
Here's the Clinton ad again for reference...
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Rockefeller has thrown his support behind Obama . Rockefeller is the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (as of 3:40 pm ET, Feb. 29)
NOTE: Obama has picked up 38 delegates since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Clinton has lost a net of 6.
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
The NBC News Hard Count stands at Obama leading Clinton 1,194-1,037.GRAND TOTAL
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton and Obama campaigns have traded numerous charges -- over national security, NAFTA, expectations for March 4, and the delegate math.
The Obama camp now has added yet another topic to the discussion: Clinton's tax returns.
"Senator Clinton’s refusal to make this very basic disclosure has raised a number of eyebrows among advocates for increased transparency," the Obama campaign says in a memo. "As her top Ohio supporter Governor Ted Strickland said in his 2006 campaign, if a candidate is not releasing his or her “tax return, what is he hiding? We should question what’s going on.”
Click below for the full memo...
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton said this morning that, despite the some hard feelings among the candidates' most "severe partisans," he's confident that most Democratic voters are still happy with both candidates, and will support whoever the nominee is.
"We know that an overwhelming majority of the American people believe the country has to change course," Clinton told nearly 1,000 people here at the University of Findlay. "The other thing we know is that most voters who will participate in the Democratic primary like both these candidates. Some of their severe partisans have developed hard feelings about the other -- that always happens. But the truth is, most people like them both."
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Obama for his answer at Tuesday's debate about a hypothetical reinvasion of Iraq if Al Qaeda seized control, McCain today found a new line of attack in what is increasingly looking like a general election campaign: NAFTA.
Earlier at the debate on Tuesday, both Clinton and Obama said that they would use the threat of withdrawing from NAFTA to compel Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the terms of the trade agreement. But today, McCain called that irresponsible, especially in light of Canada's military support for the war in Afghanistan.
"One of our greatest assets we have in Afghanistan today, frankly, are our Canadian friends," he said. "It's very controversial in Canada, their commitment and the suffering and the losses they have faced. And we need, we need our Canadian friends and we need their continued support in Afghanistan.
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From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton's new ad in Texas continues... In an hour-plus conference call with reporters, the Clinton campaign rebutted Obama's criticism that Clinton had her red-phone moment -- the 2002 Iraq war authorization -- and failed.
"The question is not about who will be picking up the phone. The question is what kind of judgment will you exercise when you answer the phone," Obama said today. "We've had a red phone moment -- it was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer."
VIDEO: Sen. Hillary Clinton's most recent political ad portrays her as the leader voters want on the phone when crisis occurs. In the conference call, referring to the remarks Obama gave in 2002 opposing the Iraq war, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said, "Sen. Clinton understands there is a big difference between giving a speech and picking up a phone call at 3:00 am in the White House."
Citing Obama's remarks during the 2004 Democratic convention defending John Kerry's vote for the war authorization, as well as Obama's Senate votes in 2005-6 to fund the war, Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn added, "Time and time again, you have heard talk from Sen. Obama that's quite different from action."
During the call, however, reporters twice asked Wolfson and Penn when Clinton had ever been tested on foreign policy -- or had to pick up the phone at 3:00 am. "She has been tested throughout her life on so many matters," Penn answered, citing her "strength," her service on the Armed Services Committee, and when she went to China as first lady and said that human rights and women's rights.
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Clinton campaign went on air with today, former Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig, an Obama supporter, gave a terse response when asked if Clinton should drop out after March 4th.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Who is Texas and Ohio “must win” for again? Hillary Clinton’s chief surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, has said she has to win both Texas and Ohio. Harold Ickes, a top aide, said, "If we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decision as to whether she goes forward or not.” Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton supporter, said in order to win Pennsylvania, she’s got to win Tuesday.
So Clinton must win, right? Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist Mark Penn today released a memo to the media, though, with the subject, “Obama Must-Wins.”
“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem,” Penn writes. And not only does he have to win, they have to be “decisive,” according to the memo.
Obama has won a majority of nominating contests, including caucuses, but note Penn’s use of “primary.”
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe says, by their estimate, his candidate is ahead by 162 pledged delegates. (NBC News’ hard count shows Obama ahead 157 pledged delegates, but there are 13 delegates still unallocated, including nine in Colorado, two in Maryland and one each in Hawaii, Democrats Abroad, New York and Tennessee. Of those states, Obama won Colorado, Maryland, Hawaii and Abroad.)
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Obama picked up three new super delegates today, bringing our Super Delegate tracking total to Clinton 254, Obama 207. Notably, this puts Obama over 1,400 total delegates (Obama 1,401, Clinton 1,291) -- combining supers with the NBC News Hard Count, which stands at Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037. Obama has picked up 37 superdelegates since Super Tuesday; Clinton has lost a net of six.
NOTE: The Obama campaign sent out a release showing four superdelegate pick ups, but one of those was already on a list provided to us by the campaign prior to Feb. 5, which is why we add in only three as new.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro New York Observer's Politicker blog ...
A rotating red phone is shown as a an announcer ominously pronounces, "The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issues of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing, and that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale."
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Andrea Mitchell notes that Obama responded on camera to Clinton's ad. "We've seen these ads before, trying to play on people's fears, trying to scare up votes," Obama said. "But I don't think they'll work this time. The question is not about who will be picking up the phone. The question is what kind of judgment will you exercise when you answer the phone.
"We've had a red-phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer."
*** UPDATE 2 *** NBC's Lauren Appelbaum points out, Roy Spence, who has been advising the Clinton campaign, was also the media advisor for the 1984 Mondale campaign, and helped to create the red-phone ad.Politico's Ben Smith writes, "Indeed, a GOP media consultant who's made his share of red phone spots over the years e-mails that he found Clinton's a bit soft -- long on children, short on direct contrast."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign pushed back against Clinton's newest ad
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said, "She had her red-phone moment; she had it in 2002," when she and President Bush voted for the war.
The red phone reference is to an ad run by Walter Mondale in the Democratic primary against Gary Hart .
"We don't think the ad's going to be effective at all," Plouffe also said, continuing, "she's already had her red-phone moment… she answered affirmatively" on her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq. "She did not read the NIE, so she did not do her homework either."
When asked repeatedly about the ad on the call, Plouffe focused on "judgment."
"Sen. Clinton's red-phone moment in her career was in 2002," he said again. "And she supported the Iraq war, supported president Bush. ... Ultimately an ad like this is going to make people focus on judgment."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee emails First Read, "The Clinton campaign has not made any threat 'direct or veiled' to engage in litigation and no legal action is being taken. The campaigns have been discussing primary night procedures and we asked for those procedures to be put in writing before we agree to them. It is standard operating procedure for our campaign -- and we presume any campaign -- to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it."
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign is running in Texas -- "It’s 3am and your children are safe and asleep, but there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ringing" -- the Obama folks are re-releasing this ad from October featuring retired General Tony McPeak.
"As a combat pilot and Air Force chief during Desert Storm, lives depended on the judgments I made. And judgment is what we need from our next commander-in-chief," McPeak says in it.
"Barack Obama opposed this war in Iraq from the start, showing insight and courage others did not. And he's our best hope to restore our security and standing in today's world.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro New York Times’ Nagourney does a smart preview piece of how Republicans are likely to go after Obama in a general election, and are already doing so (on national security, taxes, his voting record, and even his middle name). But what the piece doesn’t mention is that the Republican Party is facing HUGE problems -- bigger than any candidate they could face. Indeed, just a look at other articles out there today should have the folks at the RNC reaching for the Tums: the Dem turnout in Texas, Obama and Clinton’s fundraising haul in just one month, and the youthfulness and diversity of the Dem electorate. And then there’s the Iraq war, Bush’s approval rating, and the fact -- as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook points out today -- that it’s difficult for one political party to hold onto the White House for three-straight elections.
*** Nevada redux? The Texas papers are reporting today that the Clinton campaign is apparently raising the specter of a lawsuit to challenge the Dem-sanctioned caucuses in the state that will occur on top of the regular primary voting. The motivation here by the Clinton camp is to discount the delegates Obama potentially wins during the caucus portion. Obviously, they are worried that narrow victories in Ohio and Texas will get overshadowed if Obama ends up with more delegates for the night, which is very possible because of his likely landslide win in Vermont and the caucus portion of the Texas prima-caucus. Is the state’s delegate-selection process screwy? Definitely. But how does Team Clinton overturn a process that had been approved for quite some time? This would be the third time -- the Nevada caucus sites on the Vegas strip, and Michigan/Florida being the others -- that the campaign has questioned rules that had already been established.
*** Goin’ negative : We were about to write this morning about our surprise that Clinton hasn’t run a negative ad against Obama in either Ohio or Texas. But then we saw the new Clinton ad in Texas that appeared on TODAY. It goes: “It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders…knows the military…someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?” Does it remind anyone of that LBJ Daisy ad? Ok, that's a little extreme… But it sure does raise the specter of fear. Of course, remember, primary voters are more likely to vote their heart than head, which may mean an ad like this won't be as effective as it would, say, in a general election. Meanwhile, Obama, who has outspent Clinton in Texas and Ohio considerably, has bought two-minute TV ad blocks in those states. No word on the content of the ads yet, but sounds like it could be another closing argument-type.
*** Blame Canada! CTV , the Canadian TV channel, isn’t letting the story die that an Obama staffer warned Canadian officials to ignore the campaign’s criticism of NAFTA. In fact, it even names an Obama official. (*** CORRECTION ***
*** Delegate update : Obama leads Clinton 1,398-1,291. The NBC News Hard Count is now Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037 (with 13 delegates still unallocated). Obama picked up another superdelegate yesterday to bring that total to: Clinton 254, Obama 204.
*** Money trouble : We’ve noticed today the McCain/FEC stories -- that McCain very well might have to abide by spending limits before the GOP convention -- are starting to roll in. But why is this only now starting to get more traction, compared with all the stories about Obama waffling on his pledge to accept public funds in the general? For one thing, the McCain story is much more complicated; certainly the Obama pledge hedge was an easier one to tell. But is this starting to become a problem for McCain? At the very least, it makes it MUCH more difficult to criticize Obama for waffling on public funds…On the trail : Clinton, in Texas, holds rallies in Waco and San Antonio; Huckabee has five events across the Lone Star State; McCain tours Dell in Round Rock, TX and then raises money at the Four Seasons in Austin before heading to Arizona; and Obama, also in Texas, stumps in Houston, Brownsville, and Selma.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 4 days
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The AP : “More than doubling her January fund-raising total, Hillary Clinton raised $35 million in February, her biggest month yet, her advisers said. But Barack Obama's campaign said it will surpass that figure, with some reports that it could exceed $50 million. Clinton has been struggling to recover from weak fund-raising in January, when she had to loan her campaign $5 million. She raised $14 million in January to Obama's $36 million.”
The New York Post : “[S]everal Democratic sources said Obama was on target for a $50 million February. One source said Obama will have raised ‘between 50 million and 60 million this month.’” Washington Post notes the really scary fact for the Republicans about Clinton and Obama raising more than a combined $80 million in month. It is unprecedented territory.
TEXAS: The state Democratic Party said the Clinton campaign is threatening a lawsuit over the caucus portion of the prim-caucus. "In a letter sent out late Thursday to both the Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, Texas Democratic Party lawyer Chad Dunn warned a lawsuit could ruin the Democrats' effort to re-energize voters just as they are turning out in record numbers. Spokesmen for both campaigns said there were no plans to sue ahead of the March 4 election. ‘It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party,’ Dunn wrote in the letter, obtained by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. ‘Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process.’
“Democratic sources said both campaigns have made it clear that they might consider legal options over the complicated delegate selection process, which includes both a popular vote and evening caucuses. But the sources made it clear that the Clinton campaign in particular had warned of an impending lawsuit. ‘Both campaigns have made it clear that they would go there if they had to, but I think the imminent threat is coming from one campaign,’ said one top Democratic official, referring to the Clinton campaign. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity."
More : "The source, who asked not to identified by name because he did not have authorization to speak about the matter, said Clinton 's political director, Guy Cecil, had forcefully raised the possibility of a courtroom battle. But Adrienne Elrod, Clinton's top Texas spokeswoman, said campaign and party officials had merely discussed election night procedures and that the campaign was merely seeking a written agreement in advance. She could not elaborate on the details of the agreement the Clinton campaign is seeking. ‘It is our campaign's standard operating procedure that we need to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it,' Elrod said. ‘No legal action is being taken. We have no reason to take any legal action.' Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said the Obama campaign had no plans to sue."
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NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his latest National Journal column about the advantages the Democrats have going into the general election -- once their nominee becomes obvious. “My hunch is that the general election will be a very competitive race. However, it’s important not to minimize the Democrats’ inherent advantages. First, it’s extremely difficult for a party to win the White House three elections in a row. Indeed, consider the past 60 years: In four of the five elections in which one party had held the White House for two consecutive terms, that party failed to win a third one. This ‘time for a change’ dynamic has predominated each time. The only exception was in 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush was elected at the end of President Reagan’s eight years in office.”
More: “Going into 2008, George W. Bush’s approval ratings hover around 30 percent, 25 percentage points below Reagan’s 20 years ago. Bush’s presidency has been marred by scandals, an unpopular war, and an economy that is just barely skating above recession—hardly ideal for any party wanting to hold onto the White House.”
Also, National Journal's Ron Brownstein looks inside the exit poll numbers and finds, "From New Hampshire to California, and from Arizona to Wisconsin, exit polls from this year’s contests show the Democratic coalition evolving in clear and consistent ways since the 2004 primaries that nominated John Kerry. The party is growing younger, more affluent, more liberal, and more heavily tilted toward women, Latinos, and African-Americans. In the 18 states for which exit polls are available from both 2004 and 2008, the share of the Democratic vote cast by young people has risen, often by substantial margins.”
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HUCKABEE : NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger writes in National Journal : “Few people believe that Huckabee will be the Republican nominee for president, but he continues to win rave reviews for his oratory and his talent for connecting with voters. With the race all but sewn up, however, many political analysts are wondering why Huckabee is still in. Earlier, some thought that he was setting himself up to be John McCain's running mate, but that likelihood has faded as Huckabee continues to challenge the front-runner. Now the take is that he is priming himself for a career -- perhaps in television, but definitely in the limelight.”
MCCAIN : The Boston Globe front pages, “Last year, when his campaign was floundering and nearly broke, McCain applied for public financing. Candidates who opt into the system get portions of their privately raised donations matched with taxpayer dollars, but agree to abide by an overall campaign spending limit. This year, the cap for the presidential primaries is about $54 million. But earlier this month, after he became the GOP front-runner and donations began pouring into his campaign, McCain decided to withdraw from the public financing system, even though he had not yet received any public money and his campaign has already spent nearly $50 million. Staying in the system would be crippling. His campaign would not be able to pay for ads, mailings, polls, or travel until September, when the primary campaign officially ends with the party convention.”
“Critics pounced on the announcement, saying it was too late for McCain to back out. And David Mason, the Republican chairman of the FEC, told the candidate that only the commission can decide whether McCain can be released from the federal funding system. But the commission is unable to vote because an impasse in Congress has left it with too few members for a quorum. As a result, McCain is in a bind. His campaign says that he has a right to declare himself out of the system without an FEC ruling and that he will feel free to spend more than the cap allows in coming months. But the dispute has cast a cloud over the self-styled election-finance reformer.”
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The New York Times : “Senator Barack Obama has made significant inroads over the last month among the Democratic elected officials and party leaders known as superdelegates who will cast a fifth of the votes at the party’s convention, cutting into Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s long-held advantage with the group.”
For every John Lewis, there are some black superdelegates who are fighting back against the pressure to switch from Clinton to Obama.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger Huckabee accused the Rev. John Hagee of playing politics over principle by endorsing McCain , and criticized the Republican front-runner for not accepting a debate.
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From NBC’s Andy Merten McCain versus Obama storyline has now veered back toward the topic of al Qaeda in Iraq, the likely GOP nominee last week previewed what could be a general-election talking point. Trying to cast doubt on the foreign policy credibility of the junior senator from Illinois, McCain told a crowd of supporters last Tuesday that he did not trust Obama’s policy toward Pakistan and his willingness to strike at known terror targets without permission from Islamabad, if necessary.
But just how far from the status quo is Obama’s position toward the nuclear-armed state, which is a known sanctuary for al-Qaeda terror cells? It turns out that Obama, whose platform of change has become the cornerstone of his campaign, may actually be more in line with the Bush administration than either McCain or Hillary Clinton . Still, both have been citing a foreign policy speech he gave last summer to criticize him.
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From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff and Lauren Appelbaum McCain was elaborating on the "stark differences" between his Democratic opponents' positions and his own, he slipped up.
"I'm a proud conservative liberal republic -- conservative Republican," he said.
After joining with the Richardson, Texas, crowd in hearty laughter, McCain went on to say what he initially meant.
"Hello, easy there," he said. "Let me say this. I am a proud conservative Republican and both of my possible or likely opponents are liberal Democrats."
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo What does Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) think of his longtime friend and colleague Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) switching his support from Sen. Clinton to Sen. Obama? "I've know him for a long time and I know how much he agonized over this because he felt that so much of what he fought for back in the 60s and 70s was beginning to be realized in a way that he did not anticipate, at a much faster rate that both of us had anticipated," Clyburn said. "And so I think that he felt compelled to be a part of that movement."
He continued: "I can recall as a child things my parents told me would come to pass are now coming to pass. And so you always wish for it, and you lay the foundation for it, but the question is 'When will it happen?' I think this has come upon us in a way that was a little bit unexpected at this particular juncture."
As to whether he will follow suit and declare his support publicly: "I will make clear what I am going to do before the convention. Will I do it this week or next? No. Simply because I do believe that as an unpledged delegate I have a very, very important role to play."
And as the third most powerful member in the House of Representatives and a longtime serving member of the Democratic Party, Clyburn sees utility in remaining neutral. "If it comes to a point where the other unpledged delegates will be looking for some guidance as to what ought to be done," he said. "I'll see if I can help with that as a neutral party much better than as a committed party."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff
As the perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader announced that former San Francisco Supervisor Matt Gonzalez would be his running mate, there was not a Nader supporter with a sign in sight. With no were cheers or applause, the room was so quiet you could hear the photographers’ shutters click.
More than a dozen TV cameras rolled as Gonzalez said that he is not disillusioned and he “understands what stands before us,” but he added that he has “never entered a political campaign without the idea that it could be won.”
Nader said he hopes that his bid for the White House will change the current political discourse. “We’re both honored to be running together and looking forward to addressing issues, conditions, and solutions ignored by the other major party candidates,” Nader said to approximately 60 reporters in attendance.
From NBC’s Robert Windrem
Al Hesbah is one of al Qaeda’s main cyber mouthpieces. It has been cited numerous times by name in official communiqués issued by bin Laden’s terror network, been featured in propaganda films produced on behalf of mujahideen organizations, including al Qaeda.
Its message boards offer key insights into the mindset of al Qaeda supporters and its collective knowledge base.
So those who follow al Qaeda took notice this week when members of the mujahideen took notice of the image of Barack Obama dressed as a Somali elder on the Drudge Report. Evan Kohlmann of Global Terror Alert, and an NBC News terrorism analyst, was among those who watched as the Al Hesbah message board lit up. Al Qaeda sympathizers cited the image as evidence that American political leaders, particularly Hillary Clinton, want to portray Islam as a political negative.
“In this case,” Kohlmann said, “it would appear that the publication of the Obama photo, along with the insinuation of an intended negative political impact from being classified as ‘Muslim,’ has only served to antagonize the ranks of those who admire and support al Qaeda.”
This discussion has been viewed several hundred times on the Al-Hesbah network, Kohlmann adds, and it has been among the top 40 most popular discussions on Al-Hesbah the past three days. Most of the discussions are about events in the Islamic world, particularly the conflict between the West and Islamic militants.
The discussion began with a post from a user apparently from Lebanon or Palestinian territories. He cited a news article (and accompanying photo) with the title, "Hillary Clinton's campaign distributes photos of Obama in Kenyan dress and accuses him of being Muslim." The author then immediately comments afterwards, "May Allah's curse be on all of them."
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Mark Murray Clinton campaign is up with a new TV ad in Ohio, in which Gov. Ted Strickland -- Clinton's top surrogate in the Buckeye State -- vouches for the New York senator. "We need a president who first of all is going to be a fighter. That's the way I see Hillary Clinton," he says.
"Hillary's always been an advocate for the middle class. She's got great plans to create new jobs in every part of Ohio. I think she's a person of deep faith. I think she's a person who has devoted her life to caring about other people making sure that America works for everyone, not just the privileged few."
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign will hold a conference call with reporters, during which it will announce having raised $35 million in the month of February, according to news reports. That amount is more than double what it raised in January -- and it comes after surge in online fundraising in the wake of Clinton announcing that she had to loan her campaign $5 million.
The Obama campaign has yet to announce the size of its February haul, but spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read: "We have raised considerably more."
Obama raised $36 million in January.
From NBC's Joel Seidman Senator McCain fully meets the Constitution's qualifications to be President of the United States. In my view, the plain meaning of 'natural born citizen' includes persons who become citizens of this nation 'naturally,' that is by virtue of their birth to parents who are citizens, particularly when the birth takes place on territory occupied and controlled by the United States, in Senator McCain's case, a U. S. military base in the Panama Canal Zone. Indeed, the very First Congress, containing many Members who were the actual Framers of the Constitution, explicitly declared that children of United States citizens, born outside the limits of the United States, were 'natural born' citizens. I am confident that the United States Supreme Court, should it ever address the issue, would agree."
*** UPDATE ***
Here's what she wrote in full: "While I agree with Mr. Olson's conclusion, what I said in my article 20 years ago remains true today: 'Whether a person born abroad of American parents ... qualifies as natural born has never been resolved,' and that 'Eligibility for ... children born on American military bases ... is also uncertain.' Some have taken the view that 'natural born' means native born, that is, born in the United States, and there is no authority expressly to the contrary. The 'natural born' language in the naturalization statute passed by the first Congress, to which Mr. Olson refers, was deleted from a later version of the statute for unknown reasons. The early common law did not always provide that the children of citizens born abroad were citizens themselves, see for example dicta in Weedin v. Chin Bow, 274 U.S. 657, 663 (1927), and the automatic citizenship of persons born in United States territories or on military bases is of much more recent origin."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
McCain leads Obama 47%-37% and Clinton 49%-40%. The Arizona senator leads the Democrats across the board. About 80% of Republicans are behind McCain. Only 66% of Democrats are behind Obama and 72% are backing Clinton in one-one-one match-ups with McCain. Currently, 17% of Democrats indicate that in a match up with Obama, they'd support McCain; 16% say so in a match up with Clinton. Seventeen percent of Dems also say they are undecided in a match up with Obama; 13% say so with regard to McCain-Clinton. Those numbers though could be a reflection of McCain being the presumptive nominee and Obama and Clinton still engaged in a fight for the nomination.
Floridian Democrats also weighed in on whether and/or how their delegation should be seated at the national convention -- 28% said the state party should hold another Democratic primary or caucus; 24% believe the delegation should be seated, according to the Jan. 29th primary; 15% say “the Florida Democratic Party knowingly violated the national party rules, so it should accept the penalty”; 13% favor a delegation that is split evenly between Clinton and Obama; and 20% say they aren’t sure.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain spoke at the James Baker Institute at Rice University and jumped back into his back-and-forth with Obama . After McCain criticized Obama for his statements at Tuesday's debate, Obama's comeback involved McCain's support for the war from the outset. And today McCain called that kind of thinking counterproductive to moving forward.
"So yesterday, Senator Obama said, 'Well we shouldn't have gone in in the first place, and if we hadn't gone in in the first place we wouldn't be facing this problem,'" the Arizona senator said. "Well, that's history. That's the past. That's talking about what happened before. What we should be talking about is what we're going to do now.
"And what we're going to do now is continue this strategy, which is succeeding in Iraq and we are carrying out the goals of the surge. The Iraqi military are taking over more and more responsibilities, the casualties are down, and we will be able to withdraw and come home. But we will come home with honor."
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Michelle Obama often refers to what she calls the "fear bomb" that was used against her husband in his Senate race, as rivals questioned whether someone with his name could be elected.
Today she acknowledged that it is happening again in his presidential race, and said it's an example of why America can't wait for a leader like him to be elected.
"They threw in the obvious, ultimate fear bomb," Obama said of her husband's 2004 Senate race. "We're even hearing [that] now. … 'When all else fails, be afraid of his name, and what that could stand for, because it's different.'" She said rivals use innuendo to play on fears. "Just as they're saying it now," she said.
But, she told about 200 supporters this morning at a restored theater in Canton, Obama won despite that "climate of negativity and doubt" in 2004, and even after standing up against the Iraq war. "We learned, number one, that when power is threatened by real change they will say anything to stop it," she said. "But we also learned that the American people can handle the truth."
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Here comes the general? The day after Tuesday’s final debate before the March 4 contests, a funny thing happened: The post-debate spat was between Obama and McCain, not Obama and Clinton. If you think about it, it's an extraordinary development. Although Clinton is still leading on Ohio (yet that contest is narrowing every single day) and is about tied in Texas (yet Obama has the Mo here, too), everyone seems to be slowly moving on to the general election; political inertia is taking over. Of course, Clinton hopes that wins in Ohio and Texas will stop that storyline -- and they very well might. Does anyone else have a feeling that one more game-changer is coming from the Clinton campaign, that they must have one more thing up their sleeve? They must, right? Maybe it's Edwards (this poverty tour seems like a big clue). Maybe it's one more televised town hall (although its one in Texas is bizarrely being broadcast on a sports channel). Something, right?
*** Too late? Overshadowed by the McCain-vs.-Obama storyline, Clinton and her campaign spent the day blasting Obama over a point she raised at the debate: that Obama hasn’t held any hearings at the subcommittee he chairs. "My opponent likes to talk about what he will do, but there was a perfect example last night about the difference between talk and action,” she said yesterday, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones. “He was given the responsibility of chairing what's called a subcommittee in the Congress responsible for the European countries and our alliance with them and as part of that responsibility was NATO… [W]hat you learned last night is he's never held a substantive hearing or meeting to look at what is going on in NATO, to take a hard look at what's happening in Europe and in fact the reason he hasn't as he said is because he got the assignment when he started running for president. Well, I don't think that's an adequate excuse.” For Clinton, this is a good line of attack. But is it too late? Shouldn’t she have been making this point several weeks ago? The talk-vs.-action hit needs seasoning; it takes weeks for a storyline like this to take hold. By the way, it’s worth noting that the RNC used this very line of attack on Obama yesterday as well…
*** The delegate count : The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,192, Clinton 1,036. Obama picked up two more superdelegates last night and this morning bringing the superdelegate total to Clinton 254, Obama 203. (Since Feb. 5, Obama has picked up 33; Clinton has lost a net of six.) That’s a grand total of Obama 1,395, Clinton 1,290. So when you include superdelegates into the mix, Obama has a 105-delegate lead.
*** Natural-born citizen? The New York Times today has a piece that hadn’t crossed our mind: Because McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone, does that disqualify him for being president? It doesn’t look like it, but constitutional scholars say it’s an interesting case. “‘There are powerful arguments that Senator McCain or anyone else in this position is constitutionally qualified, but there is certainly no precedent,’ said Sarah H. Duggin, an associate professor of law at Catholic University who has studied the issue extensively. ‘It is not a slam-dunk situation.’” And it looks like the McCain campaign isn't taking any chances by making sure Ted Olson puts together a legal opinion. Speaking of legalities, though, this matching fund and ballot qualification issue is perhaps a bigger headache than questions about his citizenship.
*** The moment we’ve all been waiting for : At noon today, from the National Press Club in DC, Ralph Nader will announce his veep pick. Question: After today, will Nader -- making yet another White House bid -- be able to draw TV cameras and reporters to any other event?
*** On the trail : Clinton holds a town hall at a child development center in Hanging Rock, OH before holding two events in Houston; Huckabee is in Texas; as is McCain, who makes seven stops in the state, including two fundraisers; Obama, in Texas, stumps in Austin, Beaumont, and Fort Worth; and Bill Clinton campaigns in Rhode Island and Dayton, OH.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 5 days
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The Dem front-runner and the presumptive GOP nominee sparred over Iraq yesterday. The Washington Post front-pages, “For McCain, the decision to pick a fight with Obama helps keep the presumptive GOP nominee from being overshadowed by the battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) for the Democratic presidential nomination. It also gives him a chance to undermine confidence in Obama's foreign policy experience before the Democrat can turn full attention to the general election. But even as he focuses on a potentially decisive showdown with Clinton in four contests next Tuesday, Obama has made it clear he won't ignore the attacks from McCain. Generating headlines about an Obama-McCain showdown could also benefit Obama by creating the sense among Democratic primary voters that he is on the verge of becoming their party's nominee and also that he can hold his own against the Republicans.”
The New York Times : “In the exchange of charges between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both essentially ignored Mr. Obama’s Democratic rival, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was campaigning in Ohio on economic and trade issues.”
The Boston Globe : “The rapid-fire, long-distance exchange underscored that the two consider each other likely general election rivals, even though the Democratic contest remains unresolved.” Wall Street Journal : "The disputes between the two men touch a variety of issues. On campaign finance, Mr. McCain slammed Mr. Obama for hedging on his pledge to accept public financing in the general election. ‘He committed to public financing. It is not more complicated than that,’ Mr. McCain said last week. ‘I'll keep my word. I want him to keep his.’”
Another March 4 line in the sand -- this time by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell : "Rendell, who is backing Clinton, said the New York senator would win his state's April 22 primary, the next major contest on the calendar after March 4, if she were to beat Obama in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. Without those victories, he said, the campaign will not get to Pennsylvania."
"Rendell accepted the conclusion of former president Bill Clinton, who said recently that his wife must win both states to keep her candidacy viable. ‘I'm assuming the only way to proceed on is, as President Clinton says’ to carry both big states, Rendell said in an interview. ‘I'm not close enough to the campaign, I don't know their monetary situation, I don't know any of that. But from a vantage point of a supporter who's not in the inner circle of the campaign, I think that would make sense.’”
More: "Clinton advisers anticipate that she will come under immediate pressure from prominent supporters to consider leaving the race if she loses on Tuesday. That pressure probably would be conveyed privately at first, but quickly become public if she fails to heed the message. A split decision Tuesday would be likely to lead to similar pressure, her advisers said. Only by gaining ground against Obama in the delegate fight would she find the justification to keep going. Aides described Clinton as realistic about her precarious standing."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON : So is Clinton about to get Edwards' support this week? She's doing a poverty tour . "Today, in the town of Hanging Rock, in the state's southeast, Sen. Clinton will for the first time devote an entire campaign event to poverty."
The Times looks at the increased role Harold Ickes is taking on the campaign. "Ickes’s battles have often been as much inside the campaign as outside it. He and Mr. Penn have a long history of enmity — they did not talk when both worked for Mr. Clinton when he was in the White House. In a campaign that often exhibits a decidedly corporate and somewhat antiseptic air — personified by Mr. Penn — Mr. Ickes is intense, emotional and, his friends say, idealistic. He barely tries to hide his view of Mr. Penn. ‘Many pollsters, many pundits — including our chief strategists, dare I say — didn’t think we were going to win New Hampshire,’ he said pointedly at his breakfast with journalists.”
The New York Times’ Gail Collins writes, "If Hillary Clinton were a state, she’d be Ohio. This is a no-frills kind of place, suspicious of glamour. Barack Obama’s promise to make politics cool again doesn’t necessarily resonate here. Eight presidents came from Ohio, and the coolest was William McKinley."
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MCCAIN : The campaign isn't taking chances on the issue of whether McCain was born in the U.S. Under the Constitution, a president must be natural-born. The New York Times : "Mr. McCain was born on a military installation in the Canal Zone, where his mother and father, a Navy officer, were stationed. His campaign advisers say they are comfortable that Mr. McCain meets the requirement and note that the question was researched for his first presidential bid in 1999 and reviewed again this time around.”
“But given mounting interest, the campaign recently asked Theodore B. Olson, a former solicitor general now advising Mr. McCain, to prepare a detailed legal analysis. ‘I don’t have much doubt about it,’ said Mr. Olson, who added, though, that he still needed to finish his research.’”
The Boston Globe : “The story of how the "Keating Five" senators allegedly pressured regulators to lay off a failing Arizona S&L became a major scandal, and marked a turning point in McCain's life -- the near-death of his political career followed by his eventual rebirth as a crusader for campaign finance reform.”
CONTINUED >>
In a New York Times op-ed , Michael Bloomberg said he wouldn't run for president. "I believe that an independent approach to these issues is essential to governing our nation — and that an independent can win the presidency. I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not — and will not be — a candidate for president. I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership. The most productive role that I can serve is to push them forward, by using the means at my disposal to promote a real and honest debate."
With Bloomberg officially declaring himself not running for president, the New York Daily News wonders if we could see an Obama-Bloomberg ticket.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The ad originally aired in Iowa, ran in Texas and Vermont before the March 4th primaries, and the Obama campaign says is no longer running in Texas.
"There's a one-minute ad on in Texas telling you how terrible things were in the 90s," Bill Clinton said earlier today. "Well, I think we did pretty well in the 1990s. …If you believe things were bad in the 90s, just as bad as in this decade, and you believe everybody should be eliminated from being considered for president if they did anything good, I think you should vote for him."
But the ad hardly goes that far. The following is the only reference to the 1990s, and it’s nothing new.
The former president objects. "There aren't many facts in there," he said at his last of four events in Houston this afternoon.
"Because what fights should we not have made?" he challenged, going on to enumerate struggles over the budget, education and labor unions that he chalks up as successes for Democrats in the last decade.
"Look, no one wants to go back to the past," he said. "But you have to understand the past in order to avoid repeating its mistakes."
John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times
interviews Ohio Gov.
Ted Strickland ,
Clinton's chief surrogate in the Buckeye State. They talk about last night's debate,
McCain's prospects in Ohio, and whether or not Strickland is interested in being someone's running mate.
From NBC's Libby Leist French Ambassador to the U.S., Pierre Vimont , has assumed a new and unexpected role since taking over as Ambassador in Washington last summer: political reporter.
The French are captivated by the race for the White House this year, and he is the one officials in Paris are going to first.
Forget Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. It is all Obama vs. Clinton.
"On a personal basis, we're being asked nearly every day by our people in Paris, 'What's going on?' Even to the point that it's becoming difficult to talk to them on the phone about [anything else]... ," Vimont told a small group of reporters today. 'Tell us about the primaries!' they will say."
"They want forecast and predictions," he added.
So Vimont decided he needed to see first hand how the campaigns for U.S. President were going. He traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina last month to observe rallies for Clinton, Obama and McCain. And he even asked for a seat to watch the South Carolina Democratic debate between Obama and Clinton -- one of the most contentious this campaign season.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ron Allen and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton wanted to talk about the campaign's upcoming economic summit meeting in Zanesville -- which will focus "not only on problems, but solutions" in Ohio where the economy is "unbelievably important."
"Inflation is up, prices of everything are going up," she said. "We are sliding into a recession." When asked what's the major difference between herself and Obama on the economy, Clinton replied with "experience," "specifics..." And she then outlined her plan for a moratorium on foreclosures and a freeze on subprime adjustable mortgages.
Regarding last night's debate, Clinton said she "drew some good contrasts" with Obama. "I was really pleased by it. I thought that once again we drew some good contrasts and obviously I was pleased to talk about issues that I, you know, care a lot about and know something about and thought that that came across."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton camp has seized on something the New York senator herself brought up: the lack of hearings at the subcommittee Obama took over in 2007.
"Last night, we saw a glimpse of the real Barack Obama – the Barack Obama who became chair of a national security subcommittee, put it on his resume, but did not hold a single oversight hearing because he was too busy running for president; the Barack Obama who spends his time talking about change you can believe in instead of change you actually can count on. Given the opportunity to take the reins of leadership and shape two critical areas of U.S. foreign policy -- Afghanistan and our alliances in Europe -- Senator Obama has done next to nothing."
Here is how Obama responded last night: "I became chairman of this committee at the beginning of this campaign, at the beginning of 2007. So, it is true that we haven't had oversight hearings on Afghanistan. I have been very clear in talking to the American people about what I would do with respect to Afghanistan. I think we have to have more troops there to bolster the NATO effort."
Below is the entire Clinton memo...
CONTINUED >>
In an on camera interview with NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Rep.
John Lewis -- one of the most influential African-American members in Congress -- has said he will support
Obama as a superdelegate. Congressman Lewis had endorsed
Clinton last year, but says that Obama's candidacy is a "movement and something in American politics that cannot be ignored."
Lewis has said his decision to change from Clinton to Obama was harder then his march across the bridge in Selma 43 years ago when he was beaten and bloodied by Alabama State Troopers. Lewis tells NBC's Andrea Mitchell he has put a call into Senator Clinton but has not yet informed her of his decision and has not yet told Senator Obama.
Adding one to Obama's superdelegate total, and subtracting one from Clinton, the superdelegate count is now Clinton 255 and Obama 201.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
AP : "William F. Buckley Jr., the erudite Ivy Leaguer and conservative herald who showered huge and scornful words on liberalism as he observed, abetted and cheered on the right's post-World War II rise from the fringes to the White House, died Wednesday. He was 82."
Bloomberg describes him as "the syndicated columnist and intellectual whose studied mannerisms, verbal flourishes and polemics energized the American conservative movement for a half-century...."
NYT said he "marshaled polysyllabic exuberance, famously arched eyebrows and a refined, perspicacious mind to elevate conservatism to the center of American political discourse... .
"Mr Buckley, 82, suffered from diabetes and emphysema, his son Christopher said, although the exact cause of death was not immediately known. He was found at his desk in the study of his home, his son said. 'He might have been working on a column,' Mr. Buckley said."
NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger adds in
Huckabee's response on Buckley's death: "Janet and I were sad to hear the news of William F. Buckley's passing. As one of the founders of the modern conservative movement, William Buckley helped turn the intellectual and political tide, shifting America from liberalism to conservatism. Our country, and our world, are better for his 82 years on this earth.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro With the pick up of Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND) today, Obama has now reached 200 superdelegates. He has cut what was once a 90-delegate advantage for Clinton to what is now 56 since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th. Since Feb. 5, Obama has gained 30 publicly declared superdelegates, and Clinton has lost a net of four.
Clinton maintains a 256-200 advantage in our overall superdelegate count.
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds... Dorgan (D-ND) endorsed Obama in a conference call with reporters, and stressed Obama's support for free trade. He also praised his call, though, to renegotiate agreements like NAFTA to include labor and environmental protections.
Dorgan also repeated the call of many other Red State Dems, who argued that Obama can help down-ballot candidates and appeals to independents and Republicans.
This is Obama's second senatorial endorsement in as many days. Yesterday, he received the endorsement of Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, the first former presidential candidate to endorse Obama.
From Mark Hudspeth and Aswini Anburajan COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Has the general election already started?
Obama , with the backdrop of a roaring crowd of thousands behind him at Ohio State University lit into
McCain's comments earlier today that he didn't know that "al Qaeda IS in Iraq."
Obama referenced last night's debate in Cleveland and explained Russert's hypothetical question on whether he would send troops back into Iraq to strike al Qaeda.
"I said, well I would always reserve the right to go in and strike against al Qaeda if they were in Iraq," Obama said. "So, you know, this is how politics works. McCain thought that he could make a clever point by saying, 'Well, let me give you some news Barack, al Qaeda IS in Iraq,' like I wasn't reading the papers. Like I didn't know what was going on."
Obama went on to lay the blame for terrorist activity in Iraq on McCain's shoulders. "But I have some news for John McCain," Obama said, "and that was that there's no such thing as al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq!"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann HOUSTON, Texas -- At a just-concluded event, Bill Clinton accused Barack Obama of "running for president since he got in the Senate."
The line was thrown into a standard spiel about Obama's argument re: avoiding the "fights" of the 90s.
A Bill Clinton fundraising email just hit inboxes, and it reads: "So let's show the Obama campaign that they can't win this race just by throwing more money at it. "
This on a day when he's slamming Obama's new one-minute ad buy in Texas. The commercial, says Clinton, paints a falsely somber picture of "how terrible things were in the 90s."
From NBC’s Mark Hudspeth and Domenico Montanaro Obama fired back at McCain while on stage in Columbus, Ohio, on the subject of Iraq and Al Qaeda.
McCain had gone after Obama this morning, saying, “…I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.”
Obama gladly engaged:
“I've got some news for John McCain, that is there was no such thing Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade.
“I've got some news for John McCain. I've got some news for John McCain. He took us into a war, along with George Bush that should have never been authorized, never been waged. They took their eye off the people who were responsible for 9/11 and that would be Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, that is stronger now than at any time since 2001. I've been paying attention John McCain!
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann HOUSTON, Texas -- Houston, we have a contrast.
Bill Clinton is fond of enumerating the differences of policy opinion between his wife and her main rival, often listing off their areas of disagreement on health care and trade. But residents of Space City USA were treated to a new "huge difference" during one of the former president's campaign stops on a day-long blitz of Houston today.
"Hillary has always supported the manned space program just as I did when I was president," he told a crowd of over 250 who gathered in a picturesque neighborhood park in a Houston suburb today. "Her opponent says we should downgrade man space travel and upgrade robotic travel."
The issue of space industry employment is key in a town home to NASA's largest R&D facility. According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Johnson Space Center employs 3,000 federal workers and as many as 14,000 contracted employees.
"There are 16,000 jobs and a lot of Americans' futures riding on this centered here in Houston," Clinton said today. "You have to make a decision whether you care about this."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The
Obama campaign crossed the one-million-donor threshold today. The ticker on their Web site reads: 1,002,842 people.
At last night's debate Obama said that 90 percent of his money is raised online in small-dollar donations, an average of $109. Aides have said that the campaign barely needs to work the phones, making fundraising calls anymore. Most of the work is done online.
Speculation on the Internet is that the campaign may have raised as much as $50 million in February alone. Staffers smile smugly when you ask about numbers, but have been tight lipped about when they will announce their February figures and how much it might be.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Obama's rally here at Ohio State University started an hour and 45 minutes behind schedule today. Though I'm told the crowd waited pretty patienty for the senator and didn't boo his introducers on the stage, which has happened in times past.
A snowstorm in Cleveland, which has brought a steady white flurry to the city since late Monday night, made the drive to the airport and taking off a cumbersome affair. The campaign plane sat on the tarmac for almost two hours as it was de-iced and the runway was cleared.
So far no events will be cancelled. The staff seems determined to stick to the schedule, no matter how delayed they are. The rally in Columbus was critical -- he has yet to campaign here. Next up on the schedule is a flight to Texas with a town hall in the Dallas suburbs focused on the economy and a rally at Texas State University late tonight.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy The big news from today's
McCain town hall in Tyler, Texas, is his decision to emphasize
Obama's answer to a hypothetical question from
NBC's Tim Russert in last night's debate about reserving the right to send troops back into Iraq if Al Qaeda was to set up a base there. Here is McCain's response from the beginning of the town hall and then Russert's questions and Obama's answer.
"I'm not embarrassed to tell you that I did not watch the Democrat debate last night," McCain said, "but I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.
"It's pretty remarkable when Al Qaeda is in Iraq, and want to withdraw from Iraq and then say you will go back to Iraq if they have a base there. That's -- when you examine that statement it's pretty remarkable."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro CLEVELAND -- Last night’s debate here had a very tense feel to it -- the combination of two very competitive Democratic candidates, two very tough questioners, it being the final showdown until the March 4 primaries, and there being so much at stake. Bottom line: Both Clinton and Obama were put on the spot and survived. Clinton came armed with her own material on Obama’s record (including some new hits like the lack of hearings on his Senate subcommittee) and tried to keep him on the defensive, but he handled the pressure. Obama might have had more negative YouTube moments than Clinton, because of the initial waffle on the Farrakhan answer (though he did clean it up pretty well) and his look to Clinton to answer the Russia question first; it was clear Obama didn't want first dibs on that question. But Clinton didn’t hit that question out of the park, either. She had the chance to show her real foreign policy chops and didn’t. And her answers on releasing her IRS records (don’t she and Bill have an accountant?) and releasing her White House schedules weren’t that strong.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how Hillary Clinton's Saturday Night Live comment had a greater point in last night's debate. ***
It wasn’t a game-changer: Given those things, it's hard to see last night’s debate as changing the trajectory of this race, and that’s ultimately good news for the front-runner Obama. He was a bit more defensive last night than last week and had more stumbles than in more recent encounters. But there was a reason for that: He received some very tough questions. The Farrakhan one put him between a rock (Jewish voters) and a hard place (some African-American ones), and the Russia question had the potential of making him look small compared with Clinton -- if she had nailed the question. But she didn’t. Clinton really flubbed that "SNL" line. Like the “Xerox” one from last week, it seemed rehearsed. And to echo NBC’s David Gregory, what’s wrong with getting the first question? It allows one to set the tone of the debate…
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Chris Matthews tells Keith Olbermann that Sen. Barack Obama’s thrill factor is missing in his debates and is only visible in his speeches. ***
A “civil” war: It was a contentious but civil debate (South Carolina seems so long ago). And no matter who ends up winning, both will probably be better nominees for it. It's hard to pick a winner. Clinton was more prepared, but Obama survived under some tough questions from the moderators and volleys from Clinton, and that's probably the name of the game for him at this late date in the campaign. And a final point: Obama being seated really helps him. He doesn’t have to shout into a microphone. He can deliver his subtle zingers, but with a calm, collected tone. Now on to the contests in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont
*** Obama's financial advantage: Watching local TV here in Ohio, it feels like Obama has a 4-to-1 advantage -- with SEIU, UFCW and Obama just blitzing the airwaves compared with Clinton. It's happening in all four states. In fact, per TV ad expert Evan Tracey, Obama has outspent Clinton $23 million to $14 million in the last 30 days. How is she expected to hold a big lead if she gets outspent this badly? The third party groups are like salt in the Clinton wound.
*** I’m sorry, so sorry, please accept my apology: McCain apologizing yesterday after a radio host who introduced the Arizona senator referred to Obama as “Barack Hussein Obama” was another reminder of how many apologies we’ve seen in this race -- many of them to Obama. Off the top of our head, there was Biden (for the “clean” and “articulate” remark), Billy Shaheen (for wondering if Obama ever sold drugs), Bob Johnson (another drugs reference), and now McCain (for the shock jock’s “Barack Hussein Obama” line). It reflects just how hard it is to run against Obama. As Peggy Noonan wrote earlier in the month, “Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.” NBC’s Abby Livingston also makes this observation: While some Clinton surrogates were late to apologize to Obama, McCain did it very quickly. If the Clintons -- of all people -- can get into trouble with African Americans for statements about Obama, then just think of some of the troubles McCain might have.
VIDEO: A campaign speaker's attack on Barack Obama before a John McCain rally prompted an apology from the Arizona senator. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. ***
On the trail: Clinton attends an “Economic Solutions Summit” in Zanesville, OH, then campaigns in St. Clairsville, OH; Obama holds a rally in Columbus and then campaigns in Duncanville, TX, and San Marcos, TX; McCain also campaigns in Texas, including town halls in Tyler and San Antonio, and two fundraisers in Houston; and Bill Clinton makes five stops in the Lone Star State, hitting early voting events in Houston and Austin and a rally at the University of Texas at Austin.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 6 days
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USA Today writes, “Aggressive cuts and thrusts over Iraq, health care and campaign tactics dominated the 20th and possibly final Democratic debate Tuesday as Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama angled for advantage a week before a crucial set of primaries.”
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann talks to a political panel about Sen. Hillary Clinton’s response about her Iraq war vote as something she wishes she could take back. The New York Times : “Questions about which approach Mrs. Clinton would take to sway voters were quickly answered as she immediately confronted Mr. Obama, and she was relentless throughout the meeting. She insisted on responding to virtually every point that he made - often interrupting the debate moderators, Brian Williams and Tim Russert of NBC, as they tried to move on. At the same time, it was one of the most detailed and specific of all the debates, with both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama giving long explanations of their records and views.”
The Los Angeles Times leads with the pledge from both Dems that they could opt out of NAFTA.
The Boston Globe : "At times last night, Clinton's frustration at her position was evident. Not 20 minutes into the debate, she expressed exasperation at being asked first about the North American Free Trade Agreement, an especially volatile issue in Ohio over which the two Democrats have tangled."AP : "The tone was polite yet pointed, increasingly so as the 90-minute session wore on, a reflection of the stakes in a race in which Obama has won 11 straight primaries and caucuses and Clinton is in desperate need of a comeback."
The Washington Post : "The tone of the debate was generally civil but rarely relaxed."
Reuters saw Clinton's difficulty in pronouncing Putin's successor's name, Dmitry Medvedev, as a problem for the former First Lady. "In a campaign where the New York senator and former first lady has stressed she is ready to serve as president from the first day, as opposed to Obama, the scene was reminiscent of past campaign debates where foreign policy missteps have hurt presidential candidates."
VIDEO: MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews discuss who won the MSNBC Democratic debate. Time : "The 90-minute affair … had most of the same features we have come to expect of the last round of Clinton-Obama debates: strong jabs, deep dives into health care policy, pointed arguments over the meaning of words-and another cordial, high road finish." More: "At times, Obama showed a lawyer's flair for conceding the small points that aren't worth arguing about. This pattern was most visible in an unexpected exchange over whether Obama has sufficiently distanced himself from Louis Farrakhan's expressions of support for his candidacy. After Obama had said he has long denounced Farrakhan's anti-semitic statements, Clinton said Obama had to do more and flat-out reject his support. Obama, sensing a tiny opening that Clinton had carved in his performance, asked whether there was much of a semantic difference between the words "reject" and "denounce," but then defused the situation by ceding the point to Clinton and agreeing to do both."
Howard Fineman : "Bottom line, on my scorecard: a tie at best, and certainly not enough of a win for Clinton to change the dynamics of the nomination contest, which Obama is poised to lock up. Clinton wanted to be Joe Frazier, the relentless one, glaring across the ring for 90 minutes at the infuriating man with quick moves and tassels on his high-laced shoes. She complained about the referees, charged ahead as she had to do. She devastated him with a few power punches-but not enough of them-and didn't level him."
The
Boston Globe's Peter Canellos : "Clinton, who is trailing in delegates, used her strength as a weapon, returning to the specifics of her healthcare plan as if determined to expose the superficiality of Obama's. He used his own strength as a means of defense, repeatedly answering her challenges with high-road appeals to find common ground.
"At times -- such as when she pushed him to denounce Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in stronger terms - she seemed to go too far, but as the candidate who is trailing, she needed to take some risks and shake things up. In the end, she may have chafed some viewers but succeeded in taking the fight to Obama. Nonetheless, he seemed to emerge unscathed after skating through some verbal thin ice of his own."
Roger Simon : "Hillary Clinton as the inevitable Democratic nominee didn’t work. Hillary Clinton as the front-runner didn’t work. So how about Hillary Clinton as the victim? That was her theme at the Democratic debate with Barack Obama in Cleveland Tuesday night."
Ron Fournier has a similar take: “After trying to save her sinking candidacy with awkward turns of flattery and sarcasm, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton resorted to a new tactic in Tuesday night's debate: self-pity. ‘In the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time,’ the New York senator said, sounding more like a put-upon third-grader than a presidential candidate. The topic was her past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, an unpopular position in jobs-strapped Ohio. Rather than explain her evolution on trade, Clinton complained about the order of questioning and suggested that she agreed with a comedy skit accusing the media of favoring rival Barack Obama.
CONTINUED >>
About two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 16 points, 52%-36%. Now, per a new Q poll, that lead is now six points, 49%-43%.
The state’s primary is on April 22.
A new
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows that the contentious Dem primary is taking a toll on Clinton and Obama, as McCain leads both in national match-ups (McCain 46%, Clinton 40%; McCain 44%, Obama 42%). "The survey showed that McCain's potential advantages extend even to domestic issues, where he is considered to be most vulnerable. Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being best able to handle the economy. However, Clinton led McCain on that issue, 43% to 34%."
CLINTON: McClatchy’s Lightman writes, “Bill Clinton has been spending a lot of time in small-town Ohio. He is heading to Rhode Island on Thursday. From there, he may head back to some of the lesser-known dots on Ohio's map, probably Marion or Mansfield. Is this any way for a campaign to use a former president of the United States? Sure, because it's a way to keep him out of the spotlight and still useful to his wife's White House bid. ‘The Clinton campaign is sending Bill to safe places, to small cities where a visit by a former president is a really big deal,’ said Darrell West, a professor of political science at Brown University in Providence, R.I.”
OBAMA: Per the AP , “Sen. Christopher Dodd endorsed one-time presidential rival Barack Obama on Tuesday and said it is time for Democrats to join forces to defeat the Republicans in the fall campaign. ‘I don't want a campaign that is divisive here, and there's a danger in that,’ Dodd said, although he denied he was nudging Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to end her candidacy.”
Before the debate, Obama was calling for a more conciliatory tone in the primary, which, of course, benefits the front-runner.
Obama's hometown church is under investigation over whether they've crossed the political line in support of Obama.
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: At a minimum, the DNC, which has come under lots of criticism for its mediocre fundraising and bungling of the FL/MI primary mess, has given McCain one giant headache. He may eventually legally get out of this financial jam, but he's going to have to work for it.
VIDEO:
MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell talks with Howard Dean about the Democrats filing a complaint against John McCain over campaign funds The
Cincy Enquirer writes, “Radio talk show host Bill Cunningham's mocking and harsh criticism of Democrat Barack Obama upstaged Republican presidential candidate John McCain's rally [yesterday] in Cincinnati. Sen. McCain apologized for the remarks by the WLW radio talk show host. ‘I take responsibility and I repudiate what he said,’ Sen. McCain told reporters after the rally at Memorial Hall.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Overall, it's hard to see this debate as changing the trajectory of this race; Obama was a bit more defensive tonight than last week and had more stumbles tonight than in more recent encounters. Clinton really flubbed that "SNL" line and she did so early so it made it into a bunch of writeups; she should have saved it until it was more appropriate. It was a contentious debate, but civil; and both will probably be better nominees for it.
It's hard to pick a winner; Clinton was more prepared but Obama survived and that's probably the name of the game for him at this late date in the campaign.
We'll have more thoughts later but for now, good night from Cleveland.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The Obama campaign has launched a quiet offensive against Farrakhan and his endorsement. Obama held a private meeting with Jewish community leaders in Toledo, Ohio this past weekend, where he addressed concerns that he wasn't tough enough on Israel, on comments made by people like Farrakhan and his own pastor Jeremiah Wright praising Farrakhan. But this appears to be a thorn in the campaign's side that they are having trouble getting rid of.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro For the second time tonight, Obama has used Clinton as cover on another issue. He appears a bit wavering on foreign affairs. He didn't cite any details on Putin's successor and didn't appear to have a real solid grasp. Think about, for example, how Biden might have answered this question. And Clinton deserves points for attempting to say the successor's name. She clearly at least knew who he was.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan For the word-o-philes out there, Obama wins with the word denounce which is more applicable to use when you find someone's positions distastefulre·ject -a verb used as an object... de·nounce -verb (used with object), -nounced, -nounc·ing. 1. to condemn or censure openly or publicly: to denounce a politician as morally corrupt.
1. to condemn or censure openly or publicly: to denounce a politician as morally corrupt.
From NBC's David Gregory I have heard from many Jews who are worried about Senator Obama. Is he an anti-Semite? Is he close to Farrakan? His own pastor is close to Farrakhan. Tonight a strong attempt to assuage their fears. To say that Israel's security is sacrosanct is a strong pro-Israel statement. Beyond that, to say he wants to rebuild the relationship between Blacks and Jews is new ground. But give Senator Clinton for pushing him harder to reject Farrakhan. Here, again, he absorbed the blow, conceded the point and defused what could be a slip up for him.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama did a solid job of turning Clinton's criticism on not "rejecting" Farrakhan and instead "denouncing" him. She tried to go in for the attack when it looked like at first she was coming to his defense. But he disarmed it quite well.
From NBC's Chuck Todd To Obama's credit, he recovered a bit on the potential Farrakhan debacle at the end with trying to blur the differences; but Clinton is VERY quick on her feet. Obama clearly wasn't ready for that question.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama still hedges on whether or not he'd pledge to take matching funds. He said again that he is "not yet the nominee." But if he's the nominee, he said he "will sit with McCain and make sure we have a system that's fair for both sides." But this of course begs the question of why is he hedging? Is it because he actually won't take matching funds because his money machine is just too formidable now? If that's the case, that'd certainly be hypocritical. Or is it that he will actually take matching funds, but doesn't want to give the Clinton campaign a sub-rosa talking point with superdelegates -- that by taking matching funds he'd be weaker against McCain.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton saw the opening with Obama on Farrakhan and just drove a Mack truck through it.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Why didn't Obama simply say he rejected Farrakhan's support? That's an answer he's going to wish he had over.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Clinton's argument that "it takes a fighter" is interesting. It's the argument that John Edwards was making about Obama back in Iowa in December. And lately Obama has been trying to present himself as a fighter on the stump. Saying things like, "I will fight for you," its a new word in the Obama lexicon that has taken precedence lately.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Those watching the debate on local Cleveland TV got treated during the commercial break to a familiar face from debates long ago -- Dennis Kucinich. He's also on the ballot next week and so he's on the air now running TV ads for his bid for renomination for his Congressional seat. In fact, he dropped his White House bid in part because he was facing serious opposition for the first time. Unlike '04, he may not have had an easy plan B to hold on to while he kept rabble rousing.
From NBC's Mark Murray
That answer still makes it sound like he's waffling, although it's highly likely he'll stick to the promise.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's David Gregory Senator Clinton the fighter. This answer on having to be a fighter on health care is her strong suit. Her point in lampooning Obama's high-flying oratory is to say, I, too, had only the highest ideals about public service in Washington. But I know through experience, you need different tactics. This is her experience argument.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
On the campaign trail, Clinton sometimes likes to mention the difficulty of getting things done in the Senate because Democrats don't have a big enough majority.
These comments, along with the one tonight, raise interesting questions about Clinton's possible governing style and her ability to achieve the plans she's laid out. Would making her agenda reality as president require that Democrats have huge majorities in Congress? Is that realistic and what does that say about the ability to reach across the aisle? (It's an ability Hillary Clinton cites in talking about getting body armor for troops, by the way)
From NBC's Mike Memoli Worth revisiting something Bill Clinton said yesterday in Ohio that goes a step further than what Hillary said in outlining his views on Iraq.
"They have voted for the same things in the same way. ... There is a difference in when they started speaking out against the war when they were both in the Senate. She started first. This is a matter of record."
From NBC's Mark Murray
And Clinton answers back, "I was having a little fun."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro That was a solid body blow by Clinton on Obama not holding a single hearin gon Afghanistan despite that he talks about it being the front line on terrorism and that he chairs the subcommittee on Europe, which oversees NATO. While Obama's explanation may be realistic -- that he became chair at the beginning of his campaign -- doesn't it reinforce Hillary and Bill Clinton's points that he is inexperienced, that he has only been in the Senate for a limited time and hasn't cut his teeth yet. Doesn't that play right into the inexperience narrative quite well?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro I could be wrong, but I haven't heard Obama use this one before about having the same voting record as Clinton on Iraq once he entered the Senate: "Once we had driven the bus into the ditch there are only so many ways to get out." He then again implied Clinton didn't have judgment as good as his was, since she voted for the war.
On Pakistan, Obama was very clear in explaining his position. And then he hit Clinton again on voting for the war.
From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Mark Murray
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is this what Obama will continue to come back to? That he was against the war before it started to boost his foreign policy credentials. The argument hasn't caught on yet on his experience, but you wonder if at some point that will resonate. Though "change" seems to trump "experience" in these elections -- which was starkly evident by the overwhelming numbers of people in the CBS News/NYT poll that showed they saw Clinton as most ready to be president, but the majority of those said they would be voting for Obama. Really something.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton seemed ready with an answer and deflected it well, saying she anticipated that Al Gore would be president.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro ...she wanted the second question... Obama just used her as cover on NAFTA. He got on her coattails and when Russert went after his inconsistencies on NAFTA and whether he'd pledge to get rid of it.
From NBC's David Gregory "I find it kind of curious..." Senator Clinton wasted little time charging press bias. But what's wrong with getting the first question? I don't think she made a clear argument there. Getting the first question allows her to set the tone for the answer, why is she against that?
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Note Obama's comment on the idea that subsidies being inadequate. If he says anyone who wants to can buy healthcare, then how can the subsidies be inadequate? It underscores the nature of how much both these candidates are promising on affordability, but can they really deliver?
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones It's a good, pithy and valuable discussion, but I feel like I've heard all this before, including the 'this is too important line' from Clinton to allow the focus to remain on the healthcare topic.
This is clearly an important topic, but are viewers really engaged in this right now? Trading quotes from experts and soundbites? Are they just confused? Or bored?
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones adds... Laughter. Awe in the press file after the Hillary Clinton's SNL quip and mention of getting the first question. Is it bad to get the first question? I wonder how her response would be different had she gone second?
Great ad for SNL, though.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton must think this is good for her to attack the press, but I'm not sure that comes across well in just the second question of the debate to ultra-polite Brian Williams. That seems more a closing salvo -- like she finally wanted to get it in. Or she just thought it would work since there was a parody on Saturday Night Live, as she cited.
From NBC's Chuck Todd In case you were wondering, we weren't planning on having health care be the lead of our debate, but they digress.
From NBC's Mark Murray This is a good exchange. Clinton is shining on what she considers her top issue. And Obama has an excellent command of his plan and his defense. A good start to the debate...and we've had just one question!!! Scratch that: two questions...
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
But Clinton is inaccurate when she says there's "no difference" between their plans on mandates, since Obama has a mandate also. BUT Obama does not have a mandate for ADULTS; She does. His is on parents having to buy health care specifically for children.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama appears to be very comfortable going right back after her on health care, even dropping the word "whine." She's also got a tough, but not desperate, tone; about the right balance so far.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Obama trying to go for the kill tonight? We've heard about a lot of this already. But that Obama is lobbing the attacks (albe-them) gently. We've talked about Clinton blurring the lines. This is Obama wanting to make sure he preemptively addressed tactics strongly first.
From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Don't be fooled by the cordial tone. It all sounds nice, but Obama is tackling the mailers head on, defending them and perhaps baiting Clinton to get riled up?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Mark Murray CLEVELAND -- Sen. Clinton isn't backing away from her "Shame on you, Barack Obama" comments from the weekend. Earlier today, she admitted that she might have been a little hot.
She certainly isn't hot at this debate, but she isn't backing down.
From NBC's Mark Murray CLEVELAND -- About five minutes until tonight's Democratic debate, the final one before the March 4 primaries. Check in early and often for instant analysis and observations.
From NBC's Ben Weltman McCain in Cincinnati, "Willie" booked it out of there to host his three hour radio show. As previously noted by First Read McCain apologized for Cunningham's comments and took full responsibility for allowing him to appear at his event.
During the second hour of his show , "Willie" became Wild Bill when he attacked McCain for apologizing.Hillary Clinton . I want Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States. I am going to throw my support behind Hillary Clinton."
Overall breakdown: Cunningham attacked Obama. McCain apologized for the attack. Cunningham endorsed Clinton instead of McCain. And Huckabee , who one would figure would receive Cunningham's endorsement after today, was left out.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Obama and Clinton engaged in a good old fashioned slugfest over the political tradition of ripping off other people's catchy lines. Caught sampling liberally from the lofty rhetoric of pal Deval Patrick , Obama responded to charges of plagiarism by pointing out his opponent's occasional use of his favorite slogans, including the patented "Fired up, ready to go!"
Today, Clinton's No. 1 surrogate tossed out one of Obama's campaign catchphrases to distinguish his wife's campaign from her competitor's.
"This is change you can believe in," said Bill Clinton of the policies his wife has proposed. "This is change you can count on."
"Change you can believe in" is the central theme of Obama’s campaign, serves as his backdrop for speeches and is emblazoned on Obama T-shirts, posters and bumper stickers.
It's unclear whether Clinton was using the phrase deliberately. At a later rally in Grapeland, Texas, he stuck to the "change you can count on" contrast he's been using throughout Texas.
Clinton went on to mimic the argument of some Obama supporters that fatigue with the status quo trumps experience.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell today, DNC Chairman Howard Dean answered questions as to whether he would broker a deal in the Democratic race to prevent a protracted nomination fight.
"I think when someone gets to 2,025 it will be pretty clear," Dean said.
O'Donnell pointed out, "Well that's not going to happen in March or April, Governor."
"It could," Dean responded, "because I think you're already seeing movement among the superdelegates, the unpledged delegates and there will be more pledged delegates assigned as we go through this next round of primaries."
Dean ended with this prediction: "I think the odds are much better than 50-50 that the nominee will be decided before we ever get to Denver."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
“If they're willing to debate based on an invitation from us, consider it done, and we'll make it more formal by, let's see, its 2:30, give us an hour,” he said. (Note. “If that's all we're waiting on, it sounds like all they're waiting on is an invitation.”
He then jokingly started asking campaign embeds if their networks would host it.
Huckabee had said earlier that they had made it perfectly clear that they wanted to debate McCain, but the Republican frontrunner said they were unaware of that request.
Talking to media after a rally, Huckabee also said that Hillary Clinton was thoroughly vetted during her time in Arkansas, but may not have the experience to be president.
“She’s been examined far more thoroughly than her opponent in the Democrat primary,” he said. “But are there are still things about Hillary that the country would need to know before they elect her president? Sure, because it¹s different being the wife of a president and being the president. And I know that she’s talked about her experience, but you know, to say that being married to the president gives you the experience to be president would be like me saying, you know, that being married to my wife gives me the capacity to explain child birth because after all I’ve been married to her and she’s given birth to our three children. I’d probably get slapped in the face by her if I suggested that I knew as much about child birth as she does because I’ve been married to her.”
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain took the stage this morning at the Hamilton County Memorial Hall, conservative radio host Bill Cunningham had already created the news of the day. In his efforts to rally the crowd before McCain’s arrival, Cunningham went after the mainstream media and their treatment of Obama , who he called a “hack, Chicago-style, Daley politician."Bill Clinton channel ABC, and the Clinton News Network -- at some point is going to peel the bark off Barack Hussein Obama,” Cunningham said. “That day will come, then you’ll know the truth about his business dealings with Rezko, when he got sweetheart deals in Chicago and the illegal loans that he received.”Clinton , that I will treat them with respect,” McCain said before any questions were asked. “I will call them senator, that we will have a respectful debate, as I have said on hundreds of occasions. I regret any comments that may be made, about these two individuals who are honorable Americans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and Matthew Berger COLUMBUS, Ohio -- After Huckabee earlier said he'd like to debate McCain again, McCain said the Huckabee campaign has never contacted his staff for a debate. But he left the door open for a face-to-face meeting.
"I did not know that he had sought to do that," McCain said in Cincinnati. "In fact, we've had 16 debates since this campaign began, and I've been engaged in every one of them. So, I would certainly consider that proposal."
Huckabee campaign national chairman Chip Saltsman said here that the campaign had not officially sent a letter or contacted the McCain campaign seeking a debate, but reiterated Huckabee's words that the campaign had "made it very clear" they wanted a forum. He also said there had been plans for a debate but the television network scheduled to air it backed out.
From NBC’s Ron Allen LORAIN, Ohio -- Hillary Clinton is at a town hall here, listening to an elderly man vent about financial problems; he’s either losing or lost his house -- he was hard to understand because of an accent. It was a very odd moment, with Clinton standing just a few feet from him. It was a bit tense because he was so emotional. Clinton accepted an envelope from him and promised to help. She has two residents on stage with her who are facing foreclosures; they told their stories to the crowd.Obama : "Hope is not a plan...," in her opening her remarks.
Today, it was Hillary Clinton full of compassion and empathy for working people facing foreclosure, mountains of school loans, and taxes.
After anger, sarcasm, today it was empathy. At one point she said, "I got a little hot there the other day in Cincinnati...." and says she was really mad, because Obama was sending YOU false, misleading and discredited information.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Ohio and Texas are must-win states for Clinton and recent polls show Obama closing the gap in the former, although Clinton still leads, and show him leading her in Texas. Two other polls give the Illinois senator a double-digit lead nationally.
During the moment when the disabled veteran asked a long, difficult to understand question that seemed to have something to do with losing his home and being a good parent, Clinton held the microphone for him and listened intently as he spoke before accepting a packet of papers from him and saying she would try to help.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton has sunny predictions for his wife's performance in the Buckeye State.
"I've just been in Ohio -- looks like she's going to win Ohio," he predicted. "She's winning there. It looks good."
He later plugged her experience and change-making potential: "Change you can count on is coming from her. And you know it. You know she'll always have your back."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan CLEVELAND, Ohio -- With a silver head of hair, a DNC chairmanship under his belt and 30 years in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Chris Dodd endorsed his one-time rival for the presidency with the air of a senior statesman anointing the next nominee. Obama has the experience, the ability the vision to lead this country, to make a difference both at home and abroad," Dodd said, adding later, "The hour is getting late. That opportunity is not going to last forever. I believe the world wants to see [the U.S.] get back on [its] feet again. And I believe that Barack Obama gives us the opportunity to do that."
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell CINCINNATI, Ohio -- One of the speakers before McCain took the stage used some noteworthy language this morning.
Bill Cunningham, who I am told is a radio host here, repeatedly referred to Obama as Barack Hussein Obama -- at least three times. (Hussein is, as most know, Obama's middle name.)
Cunningham's tone was derisive on Obama's positions, and he also spoke very critically of mainstream media accusing the collective media of trying to get Democrats elected.
Rob Portman, former US Trade Rep. under President George W. Bush, followed Cunningham and lightly chided him saying, "You're out of control again." But then thanked Cunningham for supporting McCain.
McCain is not on stage yet.
*** UPDATE ***
The campaign says it invites radio hosts to "warm up the crowd" at some events but that Cunningham has no role in the campaign.
*** UPDATE 2 *** McCain repudiates and apologizes for the comments.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee said his campaign has been asking the McCain campaign to debate them and suggested questions surrounding McCain’s adherence to campaign finance laws raises doubts about his viability.
Speaking at a press conference that drew no reporters other than the six who travel with the candidate -- despite the national press corps in town for the Democratic debate -- the candidate said he wants to debate McCain.
“There's a race going on, and I wish Sen. McCain was debating me this weekend,” Huckabee said. “I wish we were gonna be in Cleveland tonight on stage or in Dallas or in Houston or San Antonio or Austin or somewhere between now and Tuesday having a debate.”
He said Republicans deserve a debate and that he was “disappointed” a forum between the remaining candidates hadn't been planned.
“We've made it very clear that we would love to have," he said, "whether it's a debate or a forum or Q and A, where both of us are there. I think any type of format would be acceptable to us and any location would be acceptable to us.”
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** What to watch for: The $64,000 question is: Which Hillary shows up -- the one we saw at the end of the Austin debate, or Ms. "Xerox" and "Shame on you, Barack Obama"? Certainly, this unknown tone she'll take at tonight's debate has a way of forcing Obama to be prepared for anything. It's not a bad place for her to be, in control of the tenor of this debate. Of course, is there such thing, after 20 debates, as a knockout blow anymore? Maybe not for Clinton but possibly for Obama. If he handles all of her shots, then he could put this thing away. If he wobbles, it could be a long six days for the front-runner. And keep in mind: The debate will be broadcast on all of the NBC affiliates in Ohio, and with weather likely to keep folks inside, there's a captive audience. More importantly, if you want a clue as to which Clinton is showing up tonight, think about this fact: Not a single Clinton TV ad is negative on Obama right now, in either Ohio or Texas.
*** Can you hear me now? Curious, who is Clinton listening to right now? When the going gets tough for a candidate, most end up ignoring the advice of those who they believe failed them for the last year and start only listening to a select few. Who are those select few anymore, besides husband Bill? Is it Maggie Williams? Ann Lewis? Mandy Grunwald? Has Mark Penn lost his place at the table? This may be why there are so many freelancers taking credit for Clinton saying she'll do this, or Clinton saying she'll do that. There's a lot of advice circulating, but we're guessing only a select few folks left in the Clinton inner-circle that the candidate is listening to.
*** Is a win a win? With tonight's debate and yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showing that Obama has cut her lead in Ohio from 21 points to 11 in about two weeks, it's probably worth posing this question: What happens if Clinton wins Ohio, but just by a point or two? A win is a win, of course. But is there something to say for making up nearly 20 points? Then again, with two new polls showing Obama leading Clinton nationally by double digits -- 51%-39% per USA Today/Gallup and 54%-38% per the New York Times/CBS -- the Clinton campaign would celebrate any win, no matter the margin. Nevertheless, according to our delegate math, Clinton winning both Ohio and Texas by 52%-48% would net her a combined 5-6 delegates. Yet toss in a potential Obama landslide in Vermont, and then her net March 4 haul could be as little as 2-5 delegates.
*** A split decision? While Clinton continues to lead the contest in Ohio, that’s no longer true in Texas, according to a new CNN survey. In that poll, it’s Obama 50%, Clinton 46%. A week ago, per the CNN poll, it was Clinton 50%, Obama 48%. Is it becoming more likely that March 4 becomes a split decision, with Clinton winning Ohio and Obama Texas? And if so, what does that mean? Does the race still go on? And speaking of those new national polls, how demoralizing is it for Terry McAuliffe to have to attempt to raise money today with what’s on the front pages of the New York Times and USA Today? Should Clinton folks be worried that rank-and-file Dems who view the two Dems equally favorably are simply falling in line behind the front-runner? No Dodd about it : While all the vanquished GOP presidential candidates this cycle have seemed to endorse someone after their departure (Giuliani, Romney, Brownback for McCain; Hunter for Huckabee), not a single Democrat has weighed in -- until now. Per the AP , Dodd will endorse Obama today in Cleveland, and an Obama campaign source tells First Read it will occur at this morning’s press conference at 9:30 am ET. And, yes, Dodd becomes yet another superdelegate pickup for Obama. Perhaps it’s only fitting that Dodd is endorsing on a debate day. It was Dodd's attack on Clinton on the driver's license issue for illegal aliens that seemed to be the beginning of the steady fall we've witnessed over the last four months since that Philly debate. All about Iraq: Though some may think McCain let something slip yesterday with his remark about his campaign potentially being a referendum on Iraq, don't buy it. This is what McCain wants this election to be about. He can't have this be a domestic election, it's not his strong suit so by giving straight talk on Iraq, it's pretty clear he knows if he can turn this election in a safety and national security election, he's got a boxer's chance. If this thing is about the economy, it may not matter who the GOP nominee is; it could be a potential disaster for the party. But the problem for McCain? If Iraq seems stable this summer, then that could force the electorate to not worry about it as much. It's a real box McCain may be in as far as the issue landscape.
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Clinton holds a town hall in Lorain, OH; Huckabee also is in Ohio, campaigning in Columbus and Mason; McCain is in Cincinnati and West Chester and then raises money in Tyler, TX; and Obama holds that press conference this morning in Cleveland. Also, Bill Clinton is in Texas.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 7 days
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The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a primer on tonight’s debate. “The large arena [at Cleveland State University] has been shrunk to an intimate theater holding 1,600 seats. The bulk of the tickets were distributed through each campaign.” Regarding the format, there are just a few rules. “Candidates will be asked to limit their responses to a reasonable length. There are no opening or closing statements.”
The New York Times helps tee up the debate. “After struggling for months to dent Senator Barack Obama’s candidacy, the campaign of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is now unleashing what one Clinton aide called a “kitchen sink” fusillade against Mr. Obama, pursuing five lines of attack since Saturday in hopes of stopping his political momentum. The effort underscores not only Mrs. Clinton’s recognition that the next round of primaries … are must-win contests for her. It also reflects her advisers’ belief that they can persuade many undecided voters to embrace her at the last minute by finally drawing sharply worded, attention-grabbing contrasts with Mr. Obama.”
More: "[A]t a fund-raiser Sunday night in Boston, Mrs. Clinton told supporters that in the coming days, she planned to highlight what she called ‘the experience gap’ between her and Mr. Obama. Indeed, her advisers said Monday that she planned to hit this theme during the candidates’ Tuesday debate, though they said she would try to avoid making harsh personal attacks on Mr. Obama, particularly since Mrs. Clinton drew widespread attention and praise at the debate last week for saying she was ‘honored’ to be on the same stage with him."
CONTINUED >>
At a Monitor breakfast yesterday, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes didn't pull any punches about Clinton's need to win Texas and Ohio. “While the campaign is still confident that the senator can capture the nomination, ‘if we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decision as to whether she goes forward or not,’ … Ickes told reporters at a breakfast meeting… After the meeting, Ickes said it would be nearly impossible for Clinton to end the primary season with a majority of pledged delegates - those determined by the results of primaries and caucuses. Instead, Clinton would need the votes of superdelegates to pull ahead of Obama, he said.” likened Barack Obama to George McGovern's 1972 failed candidacy Monday, telling a breakfast group of reporters that if there had been Democratic superdelegates that year, they might well have voted for someone else for fear McGovern couldn't win against Richard Nixon."
OHIO: Per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan, a crowd of 11,000 people filled a small basketball arena at the University of Dayton last evening, applauding Obama at almost every line and breaking into chants of "Yes, we can!" After the crowd had broken into an enthusiastic rallying cry yet again, Obama replied, "Yes, we can. We can do these things if you are ready for change. But I've gotta say in the waning days of this campaign, a lot of people are saying ,“no no no, don’t believe.” First of all, they say I haven’t been in Washington long enough," he said before launching into an explanation that attempted to discredit one of Clinton's chief arguments in this campaign.
TEXAS: Obama's secret weapon in Texas? Republican crossover supporters.
The New York Times notes how different and diverse the Lone Star State is, which makes it difficult to campaign in. “‘It’s like running a national campaign,’ said one veteran Texas Democrat, Garry Mauro, state director for Mrs. Clinton. ‘There are no similarities between Amarillo and Brownsville and Beaumont and Texarkana and El Paso and Austin and Houston and Dallas. These are very separate demographic groups with very diverse interests.’”
The New York Times/CBS poll , which shows Obama leading Clinton nationally, 54%-38%: “Mr. Obama has made substantial gains across most major demographic groups in the Democratic Party, including men and women, liberals and moderates, higher and lower income voters, and those with and without college degrees.” He is also seen as the Democrat most likely to beat McCain in the fall. “But there are signs of vulnerability for Mr. Obama… While he has a strong edge among Democratic voters on his ability to unite and inspire the country, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is still viewed by more Democrats as prepared for the job of president. And while he has made progress among women, he still faces a striking gender gap.”
USA Today/Gallup has Obama leading Clinton, 51%-39%. “It is the first time Obama has topped 50% and the first time he has led Clinton outside the survey's margin of error. However, the 12-point lead is at odds with a separate Gallup tracking poll, taken Friday through Sunday, that gave Obama a 47%-45% edge.” More: “In a general-election matchup among registered voters, Obama leads McCain by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%; McCain leads Clinton 49%-47%.” AP/Ipsos has it Obama 46%, Clinton 43%.
CLINTON: “Warning of the foreign policy challenges facing the next president, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday that it is not a time to pick someone who would need ‘a foreign policy instruction manual’ and likened Sen. Barack Obama, her rival for the Democratic nomination, to President Bush,” the Washington Post reports. “‘We've seen the tragic result of having a president who had neither the experience nor the wisdom to manage our foreign policy and safeguard our national security,’ Clinton told students at George Washington University. ‘We cannot let that happen again. America has already taken that chance one time too many.’”
"Clinton, entering perhaps the most crucial week of her political career, warned American voters yesterday to be wary of a Barack Obama presidency, asserting that the grave challenges posed by an unpredictable world demand a more experienced leader."
CONTINUED >>
"Bush predicted Monday that voters will replace him with a Republican president who will 'keep up the fight' in Iraq. 'I'm confident we'll hold the White House in 2008,' Bush told donors at the Republican Governors Association annual dinner, which raised a record $10.6 million for GOP gubernatorial candidates." MCCAIN: The candidate “said Monday that he needed to convince the American people that the troop escalation in Iraq was working and that American casualties there would continue to decline. If he did not, he said, ‘I lose’ the election,” the New York Times says. “‘Is there any doubt?’ Mr. McCain said to reporters on his campaign bus. But then he pulled back from his blunt assessment. ‘Let me not put it that stark,’ he said, explaining that he believed people would judge his candidacy on his ability to handle the economy, which has emerged as a pre-eminent voter concern, as well as on national security… ‘If I may, I’d like to retract ‘I’ll lose,’ he said. ‘But I don’t think there’s any doubt that how they judge Iraq will have a direct relation to their judgment of me.’”
Bloomberg News looks at the potential problem the Bush Administration presents McCain in the fall. However, doesn't McCain have the credibility to distance himself from Bush? Won't Democrats have a harder time painting him as a Bush clone, despite their shared positions on the war? Then again, there is that photo of the embrace…
The New York Times/CBS poll on McCain: “The poll showed Republicans settling in with their likely nominee. Eight in 10 said they would be satisfied if Mr. McCain won their party’s nomination, although just 3 in 10 said they would be very satisfied. Nearly 9 in 10 said he was prepared for the presidency, and more than 8 in 10 said they had confidence in his ability to deal with an international crisis, while a remarkable 96 percent said he would likely make an effective commander in chief. But misgivings remain among those who describe themselves as conservative Republicans, with a majority saying his positions on the issues are not conservative enough.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Domenico Montanaro indicted on 35 counts, which "stem from a tangle of suspected fraud involving business dealings, campaign finances and legislative conduct," per the Arizona Republic . "According to the government's case, Renzi cheated and stole his way into office, then abused his power to make money."
"I will not resign and take on the cloak of guilt because I am innocent," Renzi said per a statement released by his congressional office. "My legal team of Reid Weingarten and Kelly Kramer will handle these legal issues while I continue to serve my constituents."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray The back and forth over NAFTA mailers keeps on. In an ironic twist, union representatives from Ohio fired back at the Clinton campaign in a conference call with reporters today because of a mailer that indicates Obama’s record is inconsistent on NAFTA. Obama’s campaign came under fire over the weekend from the other side for a NAFTA mailer against Clinton.
The union member complained that the mailer does not directly quote Obama. The Obama mailer also did not directly quote Clinton; it quoted a New York newspaper’s characterization of what Clinton had said.
Further, the pro-Obama union members said newspaper headlines and characterizations used in the mailer against their candidate are taken out of context.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Ron Allen Clinton seemed to assume the role of commander-in-chief, for a "major" foreign policy speech. Slowly and deliberately she laid out her view and concerns about the world.
The world today compares with the time when Harry Truman took office, she began. (She never mentioned this, but four months after taking office Truman approved dropping two atomic bombs on Japan.)
Then, in one of the few references to Obama , while referring to President George Bush , she said we've seen the tragic result of a president without wisdom or experience in foreign affairs, and we can't let that happen again.
Later, while laying out her "New American Strategy," she said people won't need to guess whether she needs an instruction manual to deal with the world. Along with Iraq, she named Afghanistan and Pakistan as two other failures of Bush foreign policy. She talked about the emergence of China and the need to "level the playing field" for trade.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee said he believed the New York Times article linking McCain to a female lobbyist helped the Republican front-runner, and hopes the paper does a similar story about him.
Speaking at the Community Preparatory School Monday, he also ruled out a run for the U.S. Senate. After touring the school and speaking at length to a music class, he said that any moment could change a campaign, and it could happen to any candidate. Asked whether he thought the recent McCain article was a “Makaka” moment, Huckabee said “obviously, that one didn’t seem to make a big difference.”
“In fact, if anything, it's really helped John McCain, and I’m kinda hoping the New York Times will take me on and run a nasty front-page story,” he said. “It’s maybe the best thing that could happen to me; it certainly was to him.”
Huckabee responded to questions about him seeking the Senate with a strong “no way.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli PORTSMOUTH, Ohio --
Bill Clinton weighed in for the first time this afternoon on the direct mailers
Obama 's campaign has sent in Ohio, calling them "pure garbage."
On Saturday,
Hillary Clinton angrily denounced the Obama campaign's continued use of the pieces on NAFTA and health care, which she said had been discredited. Today, her husband explained the nuts and bolts her health care plan, saying that "everybody does have to be covered."
"It is not true that Hillary's plan forces anybody to buy insurance that they cannot afford," he said. "Nobody will have to pay more than a certain fixed percentage of their income because you are eligible for refundable tax credits to keep your cost down. But everybody does have to be covered or you will never get control of the cost."
He told a the audience at Shawnee State University, which included a large bear mascot, that they will "never get a chance again to vote for somebody who can make change in your lives this well." And he highlighted differences in the race, again raising the mailers. "She voted against Bush's energy subsidy bill, her opponent voted for it," he said. "She is for universal health care coverage, and his plan leaves some out. … And a lot of the mailings that have been sent out on her about health care and NAFTA are pure garbage, as has been pointed out."
As he continues his tour of southern Ohio, Clinton has been reminding each audience of the stakes. He started out his remarks by saying that if Hillary wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, "I believe she will go on to the convention, be nominated, be the president."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama leads Clinton 51%-39% nationally, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.
McCain leads Huckabee 61%-23%.
In the last poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, Obama and Clinton were in a statistical tie with Obama ahead 47%-44%.
The poll was conducted Feb. 21-24 and has a margin of error of +/- 3% for Democrats and +/- 4% on the GOP side.
NOTE: This is the USA Today/Gallup poll, not the Gallup Tracker poll , which shows a slimmer margin.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ROCKY RIVER, Ohio -- At a town hall here this morning
McCain told a crowd of well over 500 people that America's involvement in a "war" in Iraq is almost over. When asked about the benchmarks that would have to be met before American troops could start coming home, McCain was reminded of his controversial comments from last year that American troops might be in Iraq for 100 years.
"That reminds me of this 100-year thing," McCain said. "I was asked at a town hall meeting…how long would we have a presence in Iraq. My friends, the war will be over soon. The war for all intents and purposes [will be over], although the insurgency will go on for years and years and years, but it'll be handled by the Iraqis not by us, and then we decide what kind of security arrangement we want to have with the Iraqis."
Later in the event, McCain talked about how such a resolution in Iraq or Afghanistan might come about and how America should deal with countries that the government has deemed sponsors of terrorism -- such as Cuba and North Korea. In doing so he managed to take a subtle jab at Obama who has said that he would meet with the leaders of such countries without preconditions.
"I think one of the most overrated aspects of diplomacy is talks," McCain said. "For example, I don't know why in the world you would want to sit down with Raul Castro under no conditions for it. I have no idea what that would do except perhaps enhance the prestige of a guy who was really the enforcer for Fidel Castro for long periods of time."
CONTINUED >>
The "Yes, We Can" music video has become a viral hit with more than 13 million views online. CNBC/NYT's John Harwood sat down with the artist who produced it, Will.i.am of the Black-Eyed Peas. They talk about how it came about, what fueled the idea and Will.i.am’s next project about Obama.
Here's the CNBC video and the NYT video.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro VoteVets.org has a Web video hitting McCain on Iraq and tries to tie it to the economy. It features an Iraq veteran, who had a child after she came back and says, "John McCain said that it would be okay with him if the US spent the next 1,000 years in Iraq. A thousand years? That's some commitment to the Iraqi people, Senator McCain."
"This is my little boy," she says, holding her child. "He was born after I came back from Iraq. What commitment are you making to him? How about 1,000 years of affordable health care? Or a thousand years of keeping America safe? Can we afford that for my child, Senator McCain? Or have you already promised to spend trillions of our dollars... in Baghdad?"
Leaders of the group -- consisting of the Center for American Progress, USAction, MoveOn.org, the SEIU, VoteVets.org and Americans United for Change -- say it will pour in more than $20 million -- for ads and on-the-ground organization -- to draw links between Iraq and a struggling U.S. economy between now and November.
"It’s clear the crumbling economy is at center of people’s minds," said Eli Pariser, head of MoveOn.org. "We’re close to a recession, yet [the U.S. has spent] $500 billion in Iraq." He said that money should have gone to those affected by housing foreclosure crisis or toward affordable health care.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
The latest NBC News delegate hard count:DEMOCRATS
GRAND TOTAL REPUBLICANS
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli CHILLICOTHE, Ohio -- Stumping in the Appalachian region of Ohio,
Bill Clinton added a few hawkish flares to his pitch, imploring working-class Democrats to pay special attention to the candidates' security credentials.
"Usually in American elections we don’t think this commander in chief issue is a big deal," Clinton said at the University of Ohio-Chillicothe. "And we Democrats sometimes pay no attention to it at all. Just because we want to get the war in Iraq over, which we should, doesn’t mean we don’t want to be out there saying we love our country and we intend to defend it."
The former president did say diplomacy would be his wife's first priority in office, but not without some sticks should carrots prove not enough.
"Because we want to say military force will only be used as a last resort. Because we know the Bush administration has made mistakes in this area, we have to be credible on the military side to have diplomacy," he said. "We’ve got to be serious about rebuilding the military in order to do that. "
Even while touting his wife's fiscally conservative views, he revisited national security. "I ask you to take this security issue seriously," he said. "We need a good commander in chief. And the Democrats to win in November will need a strong commander in chief. Someone with credentials, experience, and a proven path to the future."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Crashing the party: By announcing yesterday on
Meet the Press that he’s making another White House bid, Ralph Nader crashed a party where -- at least on the Democratic side -- everyone is having fun and likes their choices. By now, everyone knows the story: In a 2000 race when analysts and voters believed there were actually few differences between Al Gore and George Bush, Ralph Nader ran for president; he picked up 2.7% of the popular vote; and, by most accounts, he took votes away from Gore in the closest presidential election in decades. Nader ran for president for years later and picked up just 0.4% of the vote. With Obama possibly on the ballot, who votes for this guy? Frankly, what room is there for him with any of the three candidates left? All can lay claim to being more reformers than any set of previous nominees in years. This could be Nader's jump-the-shark moment when he finds he has fewer supporters and donors (and volunteers) than ever before and ends up struggling to get on ballots.
VIDEO: Ralph Nader speaks with NBC’s Tim Russert of "Meet the Press" about the opposing candidates of the 2008 presidential election. ***
Clinton's changing tactics: As today’s
Los Angeles Times notes, Clinton is changing her tactics and her tone. Last Thursday, she was honored to share the debate stage with Obama. Two days later, she’s wagging her finger, “Shame on you, Barack Obama.” The next day, she's mocking him for his overly hopeful rhetoric. Which Clinton will show up at Tuesday’s debate? What got her fired up? Did the media's interpretation of her closing debate statement as some sort of concession fire her up? Whatever it was, something changed -- she's as aggressive as ever. Will this be a sustained attack this time? The one criticism inside camp Clinton that seems correct is that the campaign has never been able to sustain a negative attack on Obama. Of course, Clinton is doing it rhetorically, but her TV ads are all soft.
*** The fight over NAFTA: And speaking of Tuesday’s debate, we certainly know which topic might get all the attention: NAFTA. In previous debates, trade has been a back-burner issue. But with the upcoming contest in Ohio -- a state devastated by manufacturing job losses -- Obama is pointing to the Clintons for being responsible for the trade agreement, while Bill Clinton is blaming the Bush Administration for failing to uphold NAFTA’s worker and environmental protections. As we've noted before, nine times out of 10, a Democrat seen as pro-NAFTA in a Ohio primary would be the underdog -- which is why Clinton is pushing back so hard on the characterization that she is someone pro-NAFTA. She'd like folks to see her as ambivalent. Of course, neither Dem is calling for cancelling the trade agreement.
VIDEO: The war of words escalate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. NBC's Lee Cowan reports. ***
Ohio is tightening: Almost two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll had Clinton leading Obama by more than 20 points in Ohio (55%-34%). Well, that lead has been cut in half, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll -- it’s Clinton 51%, Obama 40%. The poll was conducted from Feb. 18-23. A
University of Cincinnati poll , conducted Feb. 21-24, shows Clinton leading Obama by eight points (47%-39%).
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the gap between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the race for the Ohio primary. ***
Obama's negatives: Bill Kristol’s New York Times column is the latest example of conservatives beginning to mock Obama’s rhetoric. We guess it’s getting close to general election time… By the way, Louis Farrakhan’s semi-endorsement of Obama yesterday was pretty much the last thing the Illinois senator needed. Toss in the blind photo Drudge attack of Obama today showing him doing what many American statesman do when overseas -- dress in local garb -- and it looks like this could be the week that the kitchen sink is tossed at Obama. Will Clinton be asked at her foreign policy speech today if her campaign is circulating this photo?
*** Delegate update: As the New York Times’ John Harwood points out, this week is first one this year that we haven’t had at least one nominating contest. Here is how things stand right now in the Dem race: The NBC News official hard count is Obama 1,183, Clinton 1,031. There are 30 delegates unallocated including 14 from Maryland, 10 from Colorado, and one each from Georgia, New York, Tennessee, Democrats Abroad and Hawaii. In our count of superdelegates, it’s Clinton 257, Obama 194. In the GOP race, McCain has 882 delegates -- plus 82 of Romney's, per the AP -- for a total of 964. Romney still leads Huckabee -- 286-246.
*** On the trail: Clinton, in DC, delivers a foreign policy speech and then attends a fundraiser; Huckabee campaigns in Rhode Island; McCain spends his day stumping in Cleveland, OH; and Obama, also in Ohio, holds rallies in Cincinnati and Dayton. Also, Bill Clinton is in Ohio and Michelle Obama is in Texas.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 1 day
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The New York Times’ Harwood looks at the anomaly of this week -- the first one in six weeks without a contest, and that extra time is helping both campaigns focus on the March 4 prize.
OHIO: The Columbus Dispatch examines the battle over NAFTA. “Trade and the debate over NAFTA has emerged as a major issue in the Buckeye State's March 4 Democratic primary, which could help decide the presidential nomination. Ohio has lost 257,600 manufacturing jobs since the beginning of 2000, a quarter of all the state's manufacturing jobs.”
"One day after Clinton angrily accused him of distorting her record on NAFTA in mass mailings, the Illinois senator was eager to rekindle the long-distance debate, citing passages from the former first lady's book as well as her own words.”
RHODE ISLAND: “‘Rhode Island is
right up there with Ohio and Texas,’ Clinton said to an estimated crowd of 5,000 in a gymnasium at Rhode Island College” Sunday. She also continued to criticize Obama on health care. "Senator Obama says I'm going to make people get healthcare whether they can afford it or not. That is false, it is misleading, and it has been discredited, and yet his campaign continues to say it."
TEXAS: Is Obama making inroads in South Texas with Latinos? So claims the New York Times .
Could Katrina evacuees living in Houston swing the primary to Obama?
Reuters : “In Texas, Clinton has history and Obama has buzz.”
Who's a flip-flopper ? The Washington Post notes that both Clinton and Obama have been flip-floppers. "A review of the two candidates' records shows that both senators have shifted positions on numerous issues as the competition for votes has become more intense. In some cases, the shifts have been subtle, a change of emphasis rather than an obvious reversal. But on other issues, both candidates are saying things that are quite different from their previous positions.”
In fact, here are each candidate’s top-five flip-flops . For Obama: special interest money (he's now happy to get labor support); public financing; Cuba; illegal immigration and decriminalization of marijuana. For Clinton: NAFTA, No Child Left Behind, Iraq, driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and the FL/MI delegate debacle.
The Boston Globe : “While political analysts said that Nader is unlikely to repeat his performance in the 2000 election, in which he won nearly 3 million votes, his presence on the ballot could still have an impact if the contest is close. In 2004, Nader won about half a million votes, including nearly 33,000 in Florida.”
CLINTON: The
Los Angeles Times looks at Clinton's shifting tactics. "With her White House prospects in jeopardy, Hillary Rodham Clinton has shifted from one tactic to another in trying to overtake rival Barack Obama. She tried TV ads saying he ducked debates. She accused him of plagiarism. She disparaged his huge crowds. She called his attacks on her shameful and dishonest. On Sunday, Clinton turned to ridicule. ‘Now I can stand up here and say: Let's just get everybody together, let's get unified, the sky will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing, and the world will be perfect,’ Clinton told supporters here at Rhode Island College.”
“‘Maybe I just lived a little long. But I have no illusions about how hard this is going to be,’ Clinton continued. ‘You are not going to wave a magic wand and have the special interests disappear.’”
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: The
New York Times looks at the distrust some conservatives have of McCain over his decision to be involved in the so-called "Gang of 14" which gave us the last major judicial compromise.
“McCain
swept all 38 GOP delegates awarded in US territories over the weekend.”
The DNC is trying to cause McCain a legal headache by
challenging his decision to pull out of the matching fund system. "If McCain were prohibited from withdrawing from public financing, he would be severely limited in his campaign spending for the next six months. Under campaign finance rules, he would be allowed to spend only $54 million; as of the end of January, his campaign had already spent nearly $50 million."
"The McCain campaign has downplayed the import of Mr. Mason's letter (of the FEC), saying the candidate did not use the guarantee of public funds as collateral for his bank loan and that he therefore has a ‘constitutional right’ to withdraw from the system. ‘It is clear to the campaign, as it is to a number of FEC experts, that no FEC action is necessary in response to Senator McCain's notice of withdrawal given the constitutional nature of the right,’ the campaign said in a statement yesterday. ‘In our view, the senator's letter is all that is legally required to exit from the system.’”
Again, does anyone believe the FEC will act in this calendar year?
Geraldine Ferraro, a Clinton supporter and the 1984 Dem VP nominee, defends superdelegates in a
New York Times op-ed . She also uses a talking point that we've expected to see become more prominent from Clinton land, but haven't: the idea that many of Obama's victories have come in states with open or semi-open primaries. "More important, although many states like New York have closed primaries in which only enrolled Democrats are allowed to vote, in many other states Republicans and independents can make the difference by voting in Democratic primaries or caucuses. In the Democratic primary in South Carolina, tens of thousands of Republicans and independents no doubt voted, many of them for Mr. Obama. The same rules prevail at the Iowa caucuses, in which Mr. Obama also triumphed.”
“He won his delegates fair and square, but those delegates represent the wishes not only of grassroots Democrats, but also Republicans and independents. If rank-and-file Democrats should decide who the party’s nominee is, each state should pass a rule allowing only people who have been registered in the Democratic Party for a given time -- not nonmembers or day-of registrants -- to vote for the party’s nominee."
The New York Post tries to take a look at the behind-the-scenes efforts made by Obama camp with superdelegates.
USA Today's Susan Page points out: "The three leading contenders for president have less executive grounding than anyone elected to the White House in nearly a half-century. Each candidate has scored impressive achievements in life, but none has run a city or state, a small business or large corporation -- or any bureaucracy larger than their Senate staffs and campaign teams."
Do you like speculating about running mates? Then the weekend's National Governors Association meeting was the place to be.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama claimed that Hillary Clinton had to take responsibility for the passage of NAFTA, because "she has essentially presented herself as co-president during the Clinton years."
Asked why Obama was attacking Clinton on NAFTA when neither candidate held an elected office to influence the passage of that legislation, Obama fired back saying that the "premise" of Clinton's candidacy "has been 35 years of experience, including eight years in the White House."
He argued that Clinton takes credit for "every good thing that happened" and said that it allowed her to be attacked on the bad as well.
"The notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn't politically convenient that doesn't make sense. If she suggested she had nothing to do with economic policy in the Clinton White House, then it would not be fair for me to bring it up but as you know, that's not the claim that she is making," Obama said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton has made no bones about the importance of Texas to the continuation of his wife's campaign. Today, at a get-out-the-vote rally in this Dallas suburb, the former president made it even more clear, saying that "her fate should be decided in Texas."
Clinton cited his wife's early political career when he told voters gathered at a blustery Arlington park this morning that it is "altogether appropriate" that the Lone Star State is such a crucial battleground for his wife, who launched a voter registration project here as a young woman. In the state, he said, will lie "her fate in this long and difficult nomination battle, where she has stood up to the most amazing kinds of challenges, where the pundits have danced on her grave repeatedly and she keeps coming back."
"The people who need a president know she'd be the best," he said, adding again that "is altogether appropriate that her fate should be decided in Texas."
Clinton also predicted that wins here and in Ohio would lead to a "handsome victory" in Pennsylvania in April. "Then I think she will become the favorite again and go on and win this thing."
The former president also mentioned -- for the first time -- the death of a Dallas police officer who was killed while escorting his wife's motorcade on Friday. Noting the loss and asking attendees to keep the fallen officer's family in their prayers, he mentioned "That also happened to me when I was president."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Huckabee showed once again that he gets the joke, appearing on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” to explain why he hasn’t conceded the Republican nomination to McCain and outstaying his welcome.
Huckabee appeared on the “Weekend Update” segment of the show, which made its return after a prolonged absence because of the strike by the Writers Guild of America. He chatted with anchor Seth Myers about the “mathematical impossibility” that he could win.
“The media loves to throw around the term ‘mathematical impossibility,’ but no one can ever explain what that means to me,” he said, eliciting an explanation from Myers that even if Huckabee won every remaining delegate, he would be 200 short.
“Wow,” Huckabee said. “That was an excellent explanation, but I’m afraid that you overlooked the all-important superdelegates, don’t forget about them,” he said. Superdelegates are only in the Democratic primaries, Myers reminded him.
“Uh oh, that’s not good news,” Huckabee said. “You know Seth, I was counting on those superdelegates.”
But the real joke came when Huckabee’s segment drew to a close. “Mike Huckabee does not overstay his welcome,” he said, referring to his candidacy. “When it’s time to go, I’ll know. And I’ll exit out with class and grace.” But after two rounds of applause, he was still there, smiling and waving. It took a gentle reminder from Myers to get him off stage.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Ralph Nader -- who won 2.7% of the popular vote in 2000 and just 0.4% four years later -- announced that he will once again be running for president this year.
Yesterday, when asked about a potential Nader candidacy at his press conference, Obama said: "I think anybody has the right to vote for president if they file sufficient papers. And I think the job of the Democratic Party is to be so compelling that a few percentage of the vote going to another candidate's not going to make any difference."
When reporters reminded Obama that Nader had said some not-so nice things about him, Obama replied: "He had called me and I think reached out to my campaign. My sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who if you're -- don't listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you're not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work. Now, and by the way, I have to say that historically, he is a singular figure in American politics and has done as much as just about anybody on behalf of consumers. So in many ways, he is a heroic figure and I don't mean to diminish him, but I do think there's a sense now that um, you know if somebody's not hewn to the Ralph Nader agenda then you, you must be lacking in some way."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama vigorously defended two negative mailers dropped in Ohio that Hillary Clinton says came “straight out of Karl Rove’s playbook.”
The mailing, one on NAFTA and the other on health care, raised the ire of the New York senator, who forcefully pushed back against them at a press conference earlier today.
Saying that the mailers had been out for weeks, Obama suggested that Clinton’s fiery reply this morning may be a political stunt rather than a genuine reaction. “I am puzzled by the sudden change in tone. Unless these were just brought to her attention, it makes me think that there’s something tactical about her getting so exercised this morning."
He added: “And unlike some of the attacks that have been leveled about me that have been debunked by news organizations, these are accurate. Sen. Clinton, as part of the Clinton Administration, supported NAFTA. In her book, she called it one of the Administration’s successes. And we point that out in a state that has been devastated by trade and has been deeply concerned about the position of candidates on trade.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas -- He's Bono.
Bill Clinton's late night rally here was a cross between a mob scene, a pep rally, a rock concert, and a Paris Hilton stakeout.
The former president appeared at the tiny new office of his wife's Corpus Christi headquarters tonight to fire up the campaign troops in advance of a morning rally tomorrow. Packed far past capacity, they hardly needed firing up. Several people had to be taken by ambulance after fainting from heat while waiting for him to arrive. Staff, and even a few well-meaning members of the press, formed a distribution line for bottled water to keep casualties to a minimum.
The crowd's long wait was rewarded with a speech that clocked in under five minutes, although the adoring crowd didn't much seem to care. But the chaos really began when Clinton ventured outside to greet the hoards of supporters who couldn't make it into the steamy former dance hall that housed the speech. A crowd-turned-paraparazzi, brandishing camera phones of all makes and models, mobbed the former president as he ambled around behind the building, alarmed staff and Secret Servicemen in tow.
Popping flashbulbs were punctuated with hilariously adoring comments from screaming women. (Example: "Ohmigod Bill! You're my new screensaver!") He even gave an impromptu speech to encourage supporters to vote -- twice -- in the March 4th primary.
But the true Bono moment came as Clinton reappeared for a brief moment before finally (to the relief of the Service and the press) climbing into the gray Suburban and calling it a night. He was speaking on his cell phone, and as the crowd began to chant and holler at the mere glimpse of the one-time Commander in Chief, he held the phone aloft victoriously.
Whoever was listening on the other end might be convinced that Corpus Christiis Clinton Country.
Or at least that Bill is a rock star.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan AUSTIN, Texas -- In the shadow of the state capitol that provided the United States with one of the most conservative presidents in recent history, Obama last night railed against the charge that being "liberal" was a bad thing.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli, NBC’s Ron Allen and Christina Jamison CINCINNATI -- Making an implicit comparison between President Bush and Obama , Hillary Clinton warned an audience this morning that change for change's sake is not necessarily a good thing.
The Obama campaign responded by sending along a quote from
Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson: "If you want to talk
about tactical political maneuvering, it's about one Democrat comparing
another Democrat to George Bush. That's the worst kind of tactical
political maneuvering."
After the talk, she continued to take the fight
to Obama while talking to reporters, displaying two of Obama's direct
mail attack pieces, which she called “blatantly false” and claimed that
his rhetoric doesn’t match reality.
"Let's have a real campaign,” she said, her
anger palpable. “Enough with the speeches and the big rallies... Shame
on you Barack Obama... Meet me in Ohio. Let's have a debate about your
tactics and your behavior in this campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Huckabee has tried hard to separate his paid speeches -- this was one -- from campaign activity. He flies commercial to the speeches and brings hardly any staff (two aides did join him earlier in the day for a media availability at Focus on the Family).
But what didn't change was the message. While he stayed away from direct references to his campaign, he did use many of the same anecdotes and stories, and expanded on his enjoyment in visiting the Alamo on Thursday.
Officials with the association, which provides leadership training to future public servants in Colorado, would not reveal how much Huckabee was paid for the address.
Huckabee also yesterday evening went to the Focus on the Family campus Friday for what he described as an “off-the-record and confidential” meeting with Christian leader James Dobson. Huckabee, speaking to reporters afterward, would not detail the talk, other than to say it was “excellent” and more personal than political.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Kelly O'Donnell John McCain said that Rep. Rick Renzi (R) would probably step down as co-chair of his Arizona campaign. McCain was unaware of the Arizona congressman's indictment until asked about it this morning after a town hall in Indianapolis, at which point he said that you always think about the family in these circumstances and he would look into Renzi's role in his campaign.
In other news, the McCain campaign says the fundraising email sent out yesterday that described the New York Times story as a "smear campaign" was its most successful fundraising email to date, but the campaign declined to say how much it raised.
Senior adviser Steve Schmidt said in response to questions, "There was a lot of outrage across the country on the story and the campaign has raised a lot of money in the last 24 hours."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama held a roundtable on college affordability and a rally at the University of Texas Pan American here in South Texas today.
Sitting on a high stool surrounded by about 25 students and about a dozen cameras, Obama went through the broad parts of his education plan, which includes a $4,000 tuition tax credit for students per year of college in exchange for 100 hours of community service per year.
"Michelle and I are very sensitive to the fact that the only reason we are where we are today is because we got an education. There were kids who were smarter than us more talented than us but they didn't have the choice that we did."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama's 17-point Wisconsin win? Per a University of Wisconsin Advertising Project study, he outspent Clinton nearly 5-to-1 on TV ads in the state. Overall, the four Dem and GOP candidates aired more than 8,000 spots in the state, spending a combined $2.1 million.
Of that amount, Obama spent more than $1.5 million; Clinton spent $300,000. That, folks, is quite a gap.
A few other findings, per a release:
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain -Obama fights over Cuba? The McCain campaign just put out this statement: "Not so along go Senator Obama favored complete normalization of relations with Fidel Castro's Cuba. Last night, he said that as president he'd meet with the imprisoned island's new leader 'without preconditions.' So Raul Castro gets an audience with an American president, and all the prestige such a meeting confers, without having to release political prisoners, allow free media, political parties, and labor unions, or schedule internationally monitored free elections.
"Instead, Senator Obama says he would meet Cuba's dictator without any such steps in the hope that talk will make things better for Cuba's oppressed people. Meet, talk, and hope may be a sound approach in a state legislature, but it is dangerously naive in international diplomacy where the oppressed look to America for hope and adversaries wish us ill."
Obama's camp has yet to put out a response, but here is what he said in the debate last night: "I support the eventual normalization. And it's absolutely true that I think our policy has been a failure. I mean, the fact is, is that during my entire lifetime, and Senator Clinton's entire lifetime, you essentially have seen a Cuba that has been isolated, but has not made progress when it comes to the issues of political rights and personal freedoms that are so important to the people of Cuba. So I think that we have to shift policy."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Here is some of the Q&A .
From NBC's Ron Allen and Kelly O'Donnell Clinton's motorcade in Dallas today. In a statement afterwards, Clinton called the accident is "devastating" news -- she feels "heart-sick" and expressed her condolences to the family and to the Dallas police department. Clinton placed a call to the chief, and she added that this reminds us of what people in law enforcement do everyday. "We respect their service."
VIDEO: A Dallas police officer was killed in a motor accident while escorting Sen. Hillary Clinton to a campaign rally. NBC's Peter Alexander reports. Clinton looked profoundly upset by what had happened -- a routine police operation she's probably been part of countless times as first lady, senator and now presidential candidate.
It's also worth noting that at least two officers have died in accidents while working in motorcades for President Bush in the last few years. The incidents occurred in Honolulu and Albuquerque.
As of this writing, the Clinton motorcade is rolling slowly down a highway. We're heading to another event. It's such a contrast to the way motorcades usually race through cities and towns....with crowds catching a glimpse of dignitaries. The press bus is silent. I think everyone is just stunned. Such an unexpected tragedy.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell McCain said he would not talk about New York Times/lobbyist news reports or the allegations again. He said he answered questions at his press conference yesterday and stressed that he is "moving on."
He was asked to react to a White House spokesman's comments today that the Times has a record of "dropping bombshells" on Republican presidential candidates. McCain declined and when pressed that his campaign has been going after the paper, McCain responded, "not anymore."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** No knockout punch : As for the big picture, the question was: Did Clinton do anything last night to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer was clearly no. Did she potentially win this debate on points? Perhaps. But once again, it’s telling that she no longer seems SO much better than he is on the debate stage. Clinton had a couple of good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was a bit more uneven -- at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions (although it might have been that cold he was battling). He was good, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary; ask us again later about his Cuba answer for the general) and more importantly, the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can Xerox) seemed to fall flat.
*** Not going for the jugular : But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one last night. And this is how this debate will be judged. Frankly, Clinton seemed reluctant to totally go for the jugular -- like on the question of whether or not Obama is NOT qualified to be commander-in-chief. Why? Is it too soon to go that negative against Obama and she'll wait until next week’s debate? Or does she realize it's possible she won't be the nominee and she doesn't want the blame for giving McCain his best talking point in a match-up against Obama. Imagine if she had said Obama's not ready for the job. McCain would probably repeat that line every day between now and November. By contrast, Obama doesn't shy away from basically making the case that she can't bring the country together. Hillary’s closing line : Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her, but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. Was she showing some vulnerability -- a la New Hampshire -- that might actually help her with some undecided voters? The Clinton campaign loved her closing remarks and sent a YouTube of it. But combine this last statement with her lack of negative attacks on Obama throughout the debate. As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder notes, "This was the night where we all learned that Hillary Clinton understands the moment in history we are in, and that she is smart enough and gracious enough to realize that her party is more important than personal vanity, that there are things she just cannot say about Obama because it would hurt him in the fall, and that more likely than not, she will not win the nomination."
*** Surviving the story, but… : McCain more than survived the day after the New York Times broke. In fact, even nemesis Rush Limbaugh rushed to McCain’s side, and the campaign raised money off of it. But it was other news that could give McCain a headache today. Long story short, McCain might NOT have opted out of the primary matching fund system, which could limit the amount of money he can raise and spend before the GOP convention. It’s a complicated story, and it’s unlikely the FEC will actually be able to do anything soon, but it’s all a bit ironic - given the grief McCain’s folks have given Obama for seeming to waffle on whether he will accept matching funds for the general election.
*** Speaking of surviving: Commentary’s Jennifer Rubin makes a great point: "Who says McCain’s coziness with the media didn’t pay off? Aside from the fact he literally is raising money on the Times, the vast majority of the mainstream media, not to mention both liberal and conservative bloggers, took his side or at least were highly critical of the Times. Isn’t that the opposite of what the talk show hosts are saying (i.e. it never pays to cultivate the media)? I doubt any other Republican would have been as effective or adept at beating back a potentially very damaging story in less than 24 hours." She may be absolutely right. Rush, a question for ya: Would any other Republican have gotten the same benefit of the doubt from so many members of the so-called MSM?
*** On the trail : Clinton campaigns in Dallas before heading to Ohio, where she holds rallies in Columbus and Toledo; McCain holds a town hall then a media avail in Indianapolis, IN; and Obama stays in Texas, stumping in the Rio Grande Valley, Corpus Christi, and Austin (where he attends a downtown evening rally).
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 4
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The Austin American-Statesman writes that Clinton and Obama “affably two-stepped for half a debate in Austin on Thursday night before bursting into prickly exchanges over which of them is better poised to lead the country after two terms by President Bush.”
The Houston Chronicle says the debate "offered few surprises Thursday as they tangled over universal health care and who would be best able to serve as president on the first day in office. Clinton tried to portray Obama as a candidate lacking in experience to handle the office, but he described her as a candidate embedded in a type of politics that has resulted in gridlock in Washington."
The AP : “It was an unexpectedly gracious moment in a debate that was supposed to be a game changer for Clinton in the run-up to crucial primaries in Texas and Ohio March 4. After losing 11 straight contests to Obama in a race now clearly breaking his way, the former first lady chose the high road and even delivered what sounded to many like the dress rehearsal for a campaign valedictory address.” Washington Post: "The Democratic debate began politely but gathered force in the closing portions with pointed exchanges on substantive issues and about the traits required of a president. The forum closed with a flourish, after the candidates were asked to describe how they had dealt with crises in their lives."
CONTINUED >>
The latest
Washington Post/ABC polls in Ohio and Texas show Obama making dramatic gains on Clinton, pulling even in Texas (Clinton 48%, Obama 47%) and to high single digits in Ohio (Clinton 50%, Obama 43%). FYI: the poll was conducted mostly before the results of the Wisconsin primary were known.
HUCKABEE : The Houston Chronicle called Huckabee's crowd at his Texas event "enthusiastic."
MCCAIN : The New York Times’ Bumiller pulled the duty of having to cover the fallout of the NYT story against McCain. The piece took pains to note that John Weaver refused to talk to the paper yesterday.
Editors and reporters who worked on The Times’s recent article about Senator John McCain will answer questions from readers .”
Politico's Martin and Allen note how McCain did a good job "turning the tables" on the Times.
The campaign even decided to raise money off the New York Times story.
The AP’s analysis : “The allegations in the Thursday report in the Times -- and a story in The Washington Post -- contradict core themes of McCain's campaign -- that he would bring honor and integrity to the White House as well as a record of changing business-as-usual Washington ways.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Here's a story that will make the rounds among insiders because of some of the eye-popping numbers being made at a time when the campaign is strapped for cash. Here's what will be the focus: "The high-priced senior consultants to Mrs. Clinton, of New York, have emerged as particular targets of complaints, given that they conceived and executed a political strategy that has thus far proved unsuccessful. The firm that includes Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and pollster, and his team collected $3.8 million for fees and expenses in January; in total, including what the campaign still owes, the firm has billed more than $10 million for consulting, direct mail and other services, an amount other Democratic strategists who are not affiliated with either campaign called stunning.
Howard Wolfson, the communications director and a senior member of the advertising team, earned nearly $267,000 in January. His total, including the campaign’s debt to him, tops $730,000. The advertising firm owned by Mandy Grunwald, the longtime media strategist for both Mrs. Clinton and Bill Clinton, the former president, has collected $2.3 million in fees and expenses, and is still owed another $240,000."
The New York Post adds, “Hillary Rodham Clinton's free-spending campaign blew a whopping $95,000 at a low-end supermarket-deli chain last month in Iowa -- a telling sign of why she can no longer cut the mustard financially against Barack Obama in critical states.” OBAMA : Ever-so-slowly, Obama's run-ins with a couple of notorious '60s radicals is starting to seep into the MSM . "In 1995, State Senator Alice Palmer introduced her chosen successor, Barack Obama, to a few of the district’s influential liberals at the home of two well known figures on the local left: William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn." More: "Obama’s connections to Ayers and Dorhn have been noted in some fleeting news coverage in the past. But the visit by Obama to their home-part of a campaign courtship-reflects more extensive interaction than has previously reported.”
CONTINUED >>
Democrats Abroad and its seven delegates weighed in, and Obama beat Clinton with 65% of the vote. The AP allocated 2.5 delegates to Obama and 2 to Clinton. There are 2.5 to be allocated at an April meeting. _primary/
Obama picked up the endorsement of a Massachusetts superdelegate .
From NBC's Chuck Todd This was a debate that had few fireworks. Early on, Obama set the tone and seemed to almost dare Clinton to be confrontational as he was dripping with nice things to say about her. Clinton took the cue and the first 45 minutes of the debate was a buddy picture with each complimenting the other (though Obama did it more often than she did).
But thanks to a question by CNN's John King, the two did exchange some not-so-niceties. From health care to the war of words to Iraq, the two candidates did show they have some disagreements. It was still a rather tame exchange.
As for the big picture, the question for everyone watching this debate is: Did Clinton do anything tonight to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer is no. Did she potentially win this debate on points; I think so; it was close but she had a couple of VERY good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was uneven, at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions. It may be because he was a bit stuffed up; he was good tonight, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary) and more importantly the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can xerox) seemed to fall flat.
But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one tonight. And this is how this debate will be judged. Frankly, she seemed reluctant to totally go for the jugular. Take, for instance, the question to her asking whether she believed Obama was NOT qualified to be Commander in Chief. As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder noted to me, she wouldn't answer that question; instead, she made a positive case for herself but didn't make the case against him. Why? Is it too soon to go that negative against Obama and she'll wait until next week or does she realize it's possible she won't be the nominee and she doesn't want the blame for giving McCain his best talking point in a matchup with Obama. Imagine, frankly, had she said, Obama's not ready for the job. McCain would probably repeat that line every day between now and November. Meanwhile, Obama doesn't shy away from basically making the case that she can't bring the country together.
Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. I wonder if showing some vulnerability might actually help her with some undecided voters.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro We've talked on horse race that Obama has had a pretty charmed political life from his fortunate Senate run to not having a real "crisis" in this campaign. Clinton, however, has had her back to the wall and has her back to the wall.
But they were asked a question on having faced crisis in their lives. Obama focused on his biography talking about, "Learning to take responsibility for my own actions" and atoning for them by his choices of employment.
Clinton said, "I think everybody here knows I've lived through some crises," but said that those "challenges ... are nothing compared" to what many Americans' she has met face daily. Then she made a hard pivot that resulted in a handshake and her passion for why she's running. Not sure what to make of it.
From NBC's Mark Murray
But is she focusing too much on South Texas, especially since that area (because of the Texas' delegate rules) doesn't award as many delegates as other regions in the state do?
She does head to Dallas tomorrow, however...
From NBC's Chuck Todd As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder was noting me in an email exchange, Clinton did not take the bait of the question on the Commander in Chief question; she never did say Obama wasn't qualified; she simply proactively made the case for herself. She's doing Obama a favor if he's the nominee by not directly calling him unqualified.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton has come up with a very effective sales pitch on health care by comparing it to Social Security and Medicare.
From NBC's Chuck Todd So far, the RNC has sent out six anti-Obama releases; They've sent nothing out against Clinton; The Clinton and Obama campaigns have exchanged approx. 3 attack releases each, making the RNC press shop the busiest of the three. BTW, not a single McCain release but then again, they have their hands full today.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- After Clinton's "change you and Xerox" comment, Obama mostly stayed about the fray -- and spent several minutes talking about health care. (Perhaps a chance to display more policy?)
But as my colleague Domenico Montanaro pointed out, Obama finally pulled out the Jim Cooper card -- the Tennessee Democratic congressman whom the Clinton Administration isolated during the health-care debate of the 1990s. It was a big chance from the November Nevada debate, when Clinton went after Obama on health-care. And he responded by talking about mandates.
This time, he talked about mandates -- but also brought up the Clinton health-care failures of the '90s.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro After Obama gave a pretty good answer on Words-gate, dismissing it as being given a line by one of his national campaign co-chairs, Clinton came back and said, words should be your own and then said that is not "change you can believe in" (Obama's slogan), that's "change you can xerox." That is a new one, but will that work? She's also now gone after him on health care again. Will that work?
From NBC's Chuck Todd We've finally had our first real exchange of this debate and it appears Obama's crowd advantage is benefitting him in getting the best of Clinton so far on this back-n-forth over words.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro As Clinton has asked for more debates, isn't this one proof that we've heard it all before? The first 45 minutes offered more of the same, as these candidates would say.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- Hearing both Clinton and Obama talk about comprehensive immigration reform, it's absolutely clear that this WON'T be a general election question -- with McCain as the GOP nominee.
The question is: How does a Republican Party that has campaigned against "amnesty" in the past two years adapt to that?
From NBC's Chuck Todd The RNC has yet to send out an attack release on Clinton; but they've sent at least three out on Obama that I've seen.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Obama a little like the old Dean Smith North Carolina teams now. He's got limited air time left with Clinton and as long as he holds the ball out, he wins. The clock is definitely against Hillary, and there's no shot clock.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama's answer about meeting with world leaders and taking an active role in diplomacy can easily be taken out of context and used as a sledgehammer against him. Obama just said that a presidential meeting shouldn't be used in such a way that it makes America look like it thinks they are better than everyone else. But there are a lot of Americans who want to believe America is a shining city upon a hill. Anticipate an RNC attack on this Obama line later tonight or tomorrow.
From NBC's Andy Merten Maybe it's the geographic location of this debate, but Clinton avoided saying, "The era of cowboy diplomacy is over." This is something she usually says on the stump to describe President Bush's foreign policy.
From NBC's Chuck Todd The two answers Clinton and Obama gave on Cuba are going to play VERY differently in South Florida. McCain's campaign is no doubt taking copious notes on this one because we're guessing McCain's campaign believes they can exploit Obama's Cuba position to a much greater extent in a potential battle for Florida's 27 electoral votes than Clinton's position.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- This question about whether Clinton would meet with Raul Castro brings back memories of the July YouTube debate, when Clinton and Obama sparred over meeting with unsavory world leaders.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting early tactic by Obama, he apparently is trying to disarm Clinton by complimenting her and trying to set a softer tone. Also, he appears to be hugging her on the issues; why hasn't she hugged him on his appeal as much as he apparently is now doing with her?
From NBC's Chuck Todd Just noting... Obama acknowledged Clinton, but Clinton did not acknowledge Obama in the opening statements.
From NBC's Mark Murray AUSTIN, TX -- She pays respect to South Texas, Barbara Jordan, and Ann Richards -- which gets nice applause from what appears to be a bit of a pro-Obama crowd.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Huckabee sat down for dinner at Mi Tierra here, and ran into Bill Clinton , who is campaigning for his wife, campaign aides said today.
Reporters weren't traveling with Huckabee and his wife between their afternoon visit to the Alamo and evening rally at St. Mary's University, but campaign aides said the meeting at Mi Tierra was random, not planned.
The two men have a lot in common -- both were born in Hope, AR and went on to become governor of the state. However, Huckabee has been poking fun at his predecessor on the campaign trail, saying that he has taken on the Clinton machine and won, and asking voters to take a second chance on a Hope native.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Clinton campaign continues to sport new bells and whistles, courtesy of the candidate's No. 1 surrogate. In Texas today, former President Clinton used that theme to re-make a comparison between his wife and another veteran of the Oval Office -- a parallel that once caused controversy in the bitter days leading up to the South Carolina primary.
"I like everybody who’s run for president this year," Clinton said at rally here. "I like to listen to Senator Obama give a speech. I’m glad he’s incited so many people, excited people, and gotten them involved in politics. I mean, I value that."
But then he added, "President Johnson was not generally viewed as a great orator. But when he did great things he gave great speeches." Clinton went on to say the same of Truman's oratory.
Clinton's comments came as he continues to thump Obama for being heavy on talk and light on results. He said that "If you want the feeling of change, you're more likely to vote for somebody else. [But] if you want a change-maker, you're more likely to embrace her."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Washington Post/ABC poll has Clinton and Obama virtually tied in Texas (Clinton 48%, Obama 47%), while Clinton has a 50%-43% lead in Ohio.
Per the Post: "The closeness of the races in Texas and Ohio underscores the challenges facing Clinton over the next 12 days of campaigning as she seeks to end Obama's double-digit winning streak in their battle for the Democratic nomination. Those victories have given Obama a lead in delegates to the national convention and have put Clinton's candidacy at risk unless she can rack up a string of big victories of her own."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy John McCain stuck to his published schedule by touring a Ford Motor plant here this afternoon.
But the real news came when he decided to cancel a planned press conference scheduled for after his tour. Instead, McCain headed straight to a finance event in Detroit, leaving the traveling press corps to spin their wheels in a hotel until departing for Indianapolis later in the evening.
This afternoon his campaign manager Rick Davis even sent out a fundraising email linking the Times to MoveOn.org in an attempt to rally the base behind McCain and against the Times.
"The New York Times -- the newspaper that gave MoveOn.org a sweetheart deal to run advertisements attacking General Petraeus -- has shown once again that it cannot exercise good journalistic judgment when it comes to dealing with a conservative Republican," Davis wrote.
McCain won't publicly face the media again until tomorrow morning, following a town hall in Indianapolis, at which time I'm sure there will be many more questions to answer. After that, McCain heads back to DC where he is supposed to address the Republican Governor's Association on Saturday night.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt held a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters on the press plane where he continued the message that the NYT story is about bad journalism and not about the senator. He said the McCain camp was very angry last night.
Today, the campaign's mood has moved from anger to the buzz word of the day (as evident from this morning's press conference), disappointment. "We think it reads like a tabloid gossip sheet."
The campaign continues to try to explain the release of the article as a result of The New Republic's behind-the-scenes story that was reported to release on Monday. "My proposition that what happened here is that a very quick decision was made," Schmidt said.
He also scolded the paper about the higher standards they were supposed to hold in a "post- Jayson Blair and post-Judith Miller" world. "I think all of you should look at what was written in the newspaper about 'The New Times." This was extensively reported. That went out the window yesterday."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee said he took McCain at his word and would not speculate on the impact of the New York Times article suggesting the Republican front-runner had an affair during the 2000 presidential campaign with a lobbyist.
“You know, I’ve campaigned now on the same stage and platform with John McCain for 14 months; I only know him to be a man of integrity,” Huckabee said at a press conference after a rally. “Today he denied any of that was true, I take him at his word. I have no further comment other than that. I think for me to get into it is completely immaterial. Again, I only know him what I know him to be, and that’s a good and decent and honorable man.”
Pressed to speak about the paper’s decision to run the article or what the allegations may mean for the Republican race, he demurred.
“This is politics, but you know, I don’t have any further comments on this other than what I’ve said,” he said. “I feel like that’s why I’m not in Texas anyway.”
Huckabee drew only about 100 supporters Thursday morning and stressed that a win in Texas is key to his strategy of preventing McCain from garnering 1,191 delegates. He has refrained from calling any state a “must-win,” but came close Wednesday in Plano.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"On the substance, we think the story speaks for itself. In all the uproar, no one has challenged what we actually reported. On the timing, our policy is, we publish stories when they are ready.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro Politico :
Talk radio host Rush "Limbaugh wrote in an e-mail to Politico: 'The story is not the story. The story is the Drive By media turning on its favorite maverick and trying to take him out. The media picked the GOP's candidate, the NYT endorsed him while they sat on this story, and is now, with utter predictability, trying to destroy him.'
"Limbaugh added: 'This is what you get when you walk across the aisle and try to make these people your friends. I'm not surprised in the least that the NYT would try to take out John McCain. Predicted this, in fact, way back in the early 2000s. Sen. McCain courted the media, cultivated them, even bragged that the media was his ‘base.’ I cringed when I heard it because the media turning on McCain was as predictable as the sun rising in the morning.'"
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum McCain calmly responded to allegations of an affair with a lobbyist first raised in the 2000 campaign and printed this morning in the New York Times article. Replying with a quick "no" to NBC's Kelly O'Donnell's questions about any meetings he had with staffers about Vicki Iseman and about a relationship with the woman, McCain said no staffer communicated with him of any concerns about a possible romantic relationship.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Mike Huckabee was asked this morning about the McCain-NYT story. Here's a quick highlight:
"I only know him to be a man of integrity," he said, but Huckabee refused to answer follow-ups.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Lots of questions: A few things that jumped out at us in this piece. 1) Up high, in the fourth paragraph, is the initial print of the denial of the romantic relationship between the two. Longtime readers of the NYT know the paper doesn't delve into personal relationships often in their political reporting; Why did they choose to have this fact so high? 2) Who are the former McCain campaign aides from 2000 who talked to the Times? The only former McCain aide who is quoted in the paper is John Weaver, so he's likely to get fingered by McCain partisans as somehow cooperating with the paper on this piece. But Weaver is pretty loyal to McCain, even now, so who else talked? And will these folks start talking to other media outlets creating a drip, drip effect. 3) Why did the NYT go with this story now and not a month ago when word first surfaced about many of the facts in the piece? 4) The McCain camp's reaction to it is very aggressive but if all the paper has is what they printed, do they have much to worry about?
*** The fallout: If you are a Republican operative or political junkie, there may not be a more important thing to do at noon today than to tune into Rush Limbaugh. How will he react? Will he feel sorry for McCain and go after the New York Times as being part of the liberal media establishment trying to take down anyone, even one they love, who stands in the way of a potential Democratic president? Or will he use this potentially vulnerable opportunity for McCain to re-raise questions about McCain's ability to unite the Republican Party? Besides Limbaugh, who will be the first to go find Mitt Romney and get his reaction? Will Mike Huckabee, who openly said he was staying in because you never know if there's a "Macaca" moment or something like that, go after McCain on this? And then there's Clinton and Obama, particularly Obama, who has been in a mini-debate with McCain on campaign finance issues? Doesn't this story play into Obama's wheelhouse?
*** The Longhorn showdown: The eyes of Texas (and the nation) are upon Clinton and Obama tonight, when they debate here at the University of Texas at Austin. After losing the last 10 contests and with the delegate math stacked against them, the Clinton campaign is hoping that these next two debates -- or something else between now and March 4 -- produce a game-changing moment in the Democratic race. To put it into language almost every Texan can understand (including one of your authors here), Clinton needs the equivalent of the Texas defense stopping a seemingly unstoppable USC on 4th and 2, so Vince Young can have the ball just one more time with about two minutes left on the clock. The problem for Team Clinton is that, according to the delegate math, they’re behind more than just one score. Tonight’s debate, which last from 8:00 pm ET to 9:30 pm ET, is moderated by CNN’s Campbell Brown, with panelists John King of CNN and Jorge Ramos of Univision.
*** But how does she get that moment? Now, is it possible for Clinton to force a series of Obama missteps without it backfiring? The answer to this question is probably one of the great debates inside her campaign. As we mentioned yesterday, we're already hearing whispers that there are multiple camps inside Team Clinton that are split on how to approach Obama. There are some who believe a sustained negative campaign -- something Obama has NEVER dealt with -- is a winning strategy. But is it? Can Clinton damage Obama for the long term? Yes. But can she damage him and keep herself politically viable in 2008? We’re not so sure. And some Clinton loyalists aren’t so sure either. Apparently, there are some inside the campaign who realize that Hillary Clinton has a political future beyond 2008 and might just have another presidential campaign in her future. But she can't go "scorched Earth" now and hope to preserve her viability as a political powerhouse either in the Senate or as the potential Democratic savior in 2012.
*** Who does she turn to? Once again, we ask: How did the most prepared candidate for the presidency (and probably for the general election) end up so woefully unprepared for the primary campaign? Why did they think this campaign should be run as a re-elect (circa ’96), rather than as a challenger race? Besides Mandy Grunwald, is there a single veteran from the Clinton '92 campaign that remembered what running uphill was like? Besides Howard Wolfson (who ran the DCCC) was there a single member of Clinton's inner circle who had ever successfully run a major national campaign before? Sure, Mark Penn takes credit for Clinton '96, but what did he do for that campaign against Bob Dole that was so remarkable? And what's he done since? Re-election campaigns are one thing, but challenger races are another, and Penn's never won a big-time race from behind. And now that Clinton's behind, who can she turn to?
*** McCain’s first general-election stop? Before a certain NYT story broke, today was going to be significant for this one reason, McCain was going to campaign in Michigan and hold a media avail at a Ford Motor Company plant in Wayne, MI, marking the first official general election stop of the campaign. Why Michigan? Well, McCain's folks probably believe that they have a good shot in this state because he can appeal to some moderates in MaComb and Wayne counties but they also probably believe Obama's struggles with working class white Democrats in the primaries could make him vulnerable in industrial states like Michigan. Anyway, this could have been an interesting development today if, well, news hadn't gotten in the way.
*** Speaking of eyebrow-raising campaign stops...: Clinton today -- once again -- stumps in South Texas (in Laredo). It’s her fourth day in Texas in about a week, and every stop so far has been to a Latino-heavy part of the state (El Paso, Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio, and today Laredo). But not until tonight’s debate in Austin will she have visited any other part of the state in the build-up to March 4. Although her husband has campaigned in other parts of the state, she has yet to hit Houston, Dallas, or Fort Worth -- even though those places have more delegates at stake than South Texas does.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Huckabee is in Texas, where he visits Houston and San Antonio; Bill Clinton stumps in West Texas (Odessa and San Angelo) before attending a debate-watching party in San Antonio; and Michelle Obama holds a rally in Cleveland, OH, before traveling to San Antonio, TX for an event after the debate.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 5
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The Austin American-Statesman previews tonight's first of two one-on-one showdowns between Clinton and Obama. Considering this event is taking place in Austin, does that give Obama a potential home-field advantage as far as the crowd's concerned? Something to watch for.
NYT's Nagourney gets right to the heart of the current Clinton campaign dilemma. "When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton meets Senator Barack Obama at a one-on-one debate in Austin on Thursday night, one of her final opportunities to change the course of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, she will again face the challenge that has repeatedly stymied her: how to discredit her popular opponent without hurting herself. Even now, after a string of defeats, her advisers are divided over how to proceed.”
Noting the divide between Mark Penn (who wants sharper contrasts) and Mandy Grunwald (who wants to soften the jabs), Nagourney then gets Penn to respond this way in an email. "Penn, asked about the extent to which the campaign might move to draw tough contrasts in the weeks ahead, responded with an e-mail message that suggested Mrs. Clinton did not intend to roll out any new lines of attack now. “It is really up to the press to dig deeper and vet him now,” he wrote. “That’s not our job.”
With Gloria Esteban's song, "Get on Your Feet" blaring, Clinton was introduced to a huge crowd in Brownsville yesterday, NBC’s John Boxley reports. She spoke for just 14 minutes, continuing to sharpen her attacks on Obama -- perhaps a preview of what we will see in tonight’s debate. "I have a plan to provide health care at an affordable cost for everyone, my opponent Senator Obama does not, he leaves out at least 15 million people," she said, for example. Also: "We need to dream big, but you know dreams alone won’t make anything change; dreams alone are not enough. We've got to have solutions to the problems that face us, I will bring my 35 years of experience and your voices to the White House."
The Washington Post's Milbank writes that there were plenty of empty seats at Clinton's South Texas rally yesterday. "Organizers had pulled out all the stops: a two-dozen piece mariachi band, Mexican dancers, a cowboy-cowgirl dancing act, a goth rock band, even a guy throwing out T-shirts and shouting, 'Who's excited?' But it was no use. In the top row of the arena, Jose G. Bustos, wearing a Clinton T-shirt and sticker, had Section 120 to himself. He surveyed the crowd. 'We were expecting a little more,' he said."
The Washington Post on the new pro-Clinton 527 that will be running TV ads in Ohio and Texas: "The decision to launch the independent group ... coincides with an increasingly aggressive approach being taken by Clinton in advance of March 4 contests ... that could determine the Democratic nominee. The Obama campaign compared the effort to the 'Swift boat' ads that helped sink Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential bid."
VERMONT: It’s all about delegates. Clinton is gearing up to campaign in Vermont.
CLINTON: Clinton “gave a defiant speech at Hunter College in New York City, where she dismissed rival Barack Obama as leading a movement with little to show for his eloquence and promises. ‘It's time to get real about how we actually win this election,’ she declared. ‘It's time that we move from good words to good works, from sound bites to sound solutions. . . . This campaign goes on!’”
The New York Daily News refers to “March 4th and long” for Clinton’s chances. They also call it “Hail Mary time” and “desperation time.”
The Washington Post takes a closer look at the 527, the American Leadership Project, which is supporting Clinton. "Supporters of the group, called the American Leadership Project, said yesterday that they decided to undertake the effort late last month, when Clinton was forced to lend her campaign $5 million to try to minimize Obama's large fundraising advantage. Unlike a political campaign, the group can accept as much as money as supporters want to give."
More: "Though the independent ads could help bring greater parity on television for the Clinton campaign in Texas and Ohio, where they are set to air, they may carry a steep price for the entity behind them. Such a group faces tight federal restrictions on how it can operate and what it can say in advertising. A 527 cannot have as its primary purpose the election of a candidate, and the law limits it to running ads about issues, not ones that plainly advocate for Clinton's election or defeat. The group cannot have any contact with the Clinton campaign. Violations could subject organizers and donors to stiff fines.
“Campaign finance reform experts said there are troubling aspects in the American Leadership Project's mission. The group is not part of an established effort to exert political influence in Washington, and it first officially surfaced in filings with the Internal Revenue Service on Feb. 15. It is advertising only in states where Clinton faces competitive primary contests. And the content of its first ad strongly hints that its purpose is to support her candidacy and oppose Obama's."
Some California financial supporters of Clinton are on board this 527 as well.
OBAMA: The Boston Globe front-pages what they call Obama’s “aloha spirit.” “While Obama is winning the vast majority of African-American voters, he has not made as many inroads with Asian-Americans and Latinos in some primary and caucus states. …But many who knew him during his childhood and have lived here for decades say Hawaii -- highly isolated but also highly diverse - best explains the origins of Obama's vision of breaking down barriers and fashioning a new majority out of the nation's splintered political landscape.”
“I am amused when the Clinton campaign continues to say, 'Well, it's essentially a tie.' I mean, that's just lunacy,” said Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe. "We have opened up a big and meaningful pledged-delegate lead. They are going to have to win landslides from here on out to erase it."
The Washington Post's Kurtz notes the TV networks' decision to skip Clinton's Feb. 19 speech in favor of Obama's victory speech in Houston.
“[I]n a race in which the Harvard-educated lawyer and mother of two has received mostly positive press as a charismatic figure on the campaign trail, the controversy also highlighted the flip side to her dynamic personality: Michelle Obama says what she thinks, sometimes without editing herself first.” rolled out a slew of endorsements, including four superdelegates and two labor unions. Can they keep up this kind of bandwagon effect again today?
The Philly Inquirer notes how Obama is getting squeezed now on two fronts on the same issue: experience. Both Clinton and McCain are hitting him on it. "It remains to be seen what impact the oral assaults from Clinton and McCain will have on the Obama campaign heading into the big-delegate states of Texas and Ohio, with their primaries March 4.
The subject of readiness to be president is certain to come up tonight when Obama and Clinton hold a televised debate in Austin, Texas, their second one-on-one encounter. "This is a legitimate question that he [Obama] would face if he were the nominee," Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson, said yesterday of the question of Obama's readiness to command the military. "He's facing it from John McCain now."
It's possible that Democratic-primary voters will react to the criticism by taking a new look at the Obama-Clinton choice. Or they could resent seeing their front-runner assailed from both sides and rally to his defense. Said Obama's communications director, Bill Burton: "These attacks will only remind voters that John McCain and Hillary Clinton both voted for a war in Iraq that allowed Osama bid Laden and al-Qaeda to escape across the border into Pakistan.'"
Karl Rove believes Obama has now opened himself up for attacks. "Mr. Obama had not been so effectively criticized before. In the Democratic contest, John Edwards and Mrs. Clinton were unwilling to confront him directly or in a manner that hurt him. Mr. McCain was rightly preoccupied by his own primary. On Tuesday night, things changed.
Perhaps in response to criticisms that have been building in recent days, Mr. Obama pivoted Tuesday from his usual incantations. He dropped the pretense of being a candidate of inspiring but undescribed "post-partisan" change. Until now, Mr. Obama has been making appeals to the center, saying, for example, that we are not red or blue states, but the United States. But in his Houston speech, he used the opportunity of 45 (long) minutes on national TV to advocate a distinctly non-centrist, even proudly left-wing, agenda. By doing so, he opened himself to new and damaging contrasts and lines of criticism."
HUCKABEE: So Huckabee talked about staying in the race because you never know what could happen.
MCCAIN: CBN’s Brody writes on how evangelicals might react to the NYT story. “Obviously an article like this doesn't help McCain among the conservatives he's trying to win over, especially social conservatives. But let's take a step back for a moment. The New York Times has NO evidence in their story that there was actually a romantic relationship. No phone calls, e-mails, etc. Will some people be put off by the alleged romantic relationship? Sure, but I'm not convinced it's a killer when it comes to McCain's courting of the evangelical vote.”
“It may be one more reason not to vote for McCain for some Evangelicals. But my hunch is that for the most part, this story does nothing to radically change McCain's relationship with Evangelicals. I mean, what? All of a sudden Evangelicals won't vote for him because of this, or now vote for Obama or Clinton? I don't see it.”
McCain’s "lawyer, Robert Bennett told Fox News Channel he interviewed members of McCain's staff about the allegations and concluded, "There's nothing to it."
On December 20, 2007 -- when word of this New York Times story first surfaced -- a reporter asked McCain to comment on talks with the paper. McCain replied, per NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum, that the Times has "been communicating with our staff and with us."
CONTINUED >>
Jesse Jackson is speaking out about his worries of a protracted fight. “First, we must not allow people to exacerbate black-Hispanic tensions,” Jackson said in a lengthy phone interview from New York. “I think the differences there are exaggerated. You just can’t characterize things as Hispanics for Hillary and blacks for Obama.” More: Second, "If the superdelegates are substantially out of line with the popular vote, it could very damaging,” Jackson said. “There must be some reasonable relationship.”
Jackson said the final rift -- which could prove the most difficult to heal -- is genuine reconciliation between Obama and Clinton at the Democratic convention in Denver in August. “The two sides must be able to embrace fervently in Denver and heal campaign wounds,” Jackson said, or else, he said, Republicans could win in November.
We are learning more details of the candidates' January fundraising and spending. Clinton ended with debt of more than $7 million; Obama raised $36 million compared to Clintons' $13.6 million. The Clinton debt does NOT include the $5 million personal loan. "But even that money is illusionary when measured against the reported $7.6 million in debts.
More than $2 million of the red ink is owed to chief consultant and adviser, Mark Penn. But the lengthy laundry list of IOUs also includes unpaid bills ranging from insurance coverage, phone banking, printing and catering at events in Iowa, New Hampshire and California."
Giuliani ended his shortened senate race in the '00 cycle with extra money and apparently he ended his shortened presidential campaign with extra money , some $9 million.
“Romney put in at least $42.3 million of his own money , a big chunk of the $97 million he spent on the campaign.” More: “The former Massachusetts governor's total self-financing puts him ahead of Steve Forbes, the publisher who spent $38 million on his unsuccessful run for the GOP nomination in 1996, but shy of the $63.5 million that H. Ross Perot spent on his 1992 third-party presidential campaign. Romney's total loan also equates to about $167,000 for each of the 253 delegates he won before suspending his campaign.”
“Romney also reported raising $9.7 million last month, bringing his campaign total to $63.6 million. That total is appreciably more than that raised by John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee whom Romney endorsed last week. McCain received contributions totaling about $49 million and borrowed nearly $4 million more by the end of last month. During January, McCain raised $11.7 million and borrowed $950,000.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Obama may be battling a cold in Texas, but while campaigning in Dallas this afternoon he also fought a battle against both Clinton and McCain . After introductions from former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk and ex-Cowboys running back Emmit Smith, Obama entered to thunderous applause and he came out swinging.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton just said this about his wife's campaign while in Texas: "If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."
From NBC's Jessica Turtletaub
In a speech delivered this morning at Hunter College in New York,
Clinton dug in her heels and continued to hit home that her campaign is offering the public more than just rhetoric. "It is time to get real, to get real about how we actually win this election and get real about the challenges facing America."
Contrasting her campaign with Obama's and McCain's , Clinton boasted "sound solutions" as opposed to "sound bites," and promised "21st-century solutions" rather than "more of the same old Republican policies." She also questioned Obama’s record and his readiness to tackle what she described as the “toughest job in the world.”
“Americans have a choice to make this election,” she said “and that choice matters. It’s about picking a president who relies not just on words, but on work… We need to make a choice between speeches and solutions. Because while words matter greatly, the best words in the world aren’t enough unless you match them with action.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama gained three more superdelegates today. And one of them is a superdelegate switch. Two of the superdelegates are from New Jersey -- State Sen. Dana Redd, who switched her support from Clinton , and Donald Norcross, who was previously undecided.
Obama also gained the support of Wisconsin Congressman Ron Kind , who had pledged to support the winner of his congressional district; he officially did so today.
Two unions also threw their support behind Obama: The 1.4-million Teamsters and the 65,000-member Boilermakers.
For political and union insiders, NBC's Mark Murray notes this observation: the majority of the Change to Win unions (SEIU, Teamsters, UNITE-HERE) are now behind Obama versus AFL-CIO ones (AFSCME, the Machinists, the Letter Carriers, Bricklayers, AFT, etc), which are backing Clinton.
SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (as of 2:10 pm ET, Feb. 20)
NOTE: This brings Obama's post-Feb. 5 superdelegate count to 18 to negative-4 over Clinton.
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
OVERALL DELEGATE COUNT NBC News Hard Count
GRAND TOTAL (with supers)Obama 1,384
*** UPDATE *** Doggett will hold a press conference today in Austin, Texas, announcing his support, per the Obama campaign. The above numbers have been updated to reflect Doggett's support.
From NBC's Andy Merten
It’s slightly counter-intuitive that
Obama could sound more hawkish than
McCain , but when it comes to Pakistan, that may be the case. Last night at his Wisconsin victory speech in Columbus, Ohio, McCain came out swinging against what he perceives as the Illinois senator’s naiveté of international affairs and world events.
Providing a potential sneak preview of his general election talking points, he asked, “Will we risk the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested bombing our ally, Pakistan?” The likely nominee’s comments referenced a counter-terrorism policy speech that the presidential hopeful gave in August in Washington, DC. While lamenting what he perceived as the Bush administration’s misguided war in Iraq and its distraction from al-Qaeda strongholds in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Illinois senator struck an offensive tone.
“Let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains, that murdered 3,000 Americans,” he said, continuing with resolve: “If we have actionable intelligence about high-valued terrorist targets and President Musharraf will not act, we will.”
Obama at the time was talking about attacking known al-Qaeda terrorist targets, not suggesting mounting an attack on the country or government of Pakistan. Still, he caught flak shortly thereafter from some on both sides of the aisle for discussing the merits of attacking a sovereign ally.
And McCain saw no distinction, while speaking with reporters, today. “That’s still bombing Pakistan,” he said when pressed on the topic. McCain then sidestepped, discussing the merits of diplomacy. “The first thing you do is you don’t tell people what you’re going to do; you make plans, and you work with the other country that is your ally and friend, which Pakistan is.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A hat tip to the
Atlantic's Marc Ambinder , who broke the news that there is a pro-Clinton 527 planning "an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania," he writes. "They're canvassing Clinton donors for pledges of up to $100,000 in the hope of raising at least $10M by the end of next week."
And a hat tip to Politico's Ben Smith , where we found the video of the 527's first ad for Clinton to run in Ohio.
From NBC's Andy Merten
It seems that McCain may have come down from the high of his victory party last night. Following his decisive win in Wisconsin last evening, the Arizona senator projected the most confident language to date about his likely nomination.
“Thank you, Wisconsin, for bringing us to the point where even a superstitious naval aviator can claim with confidence and humility that I will be our party’s nominee,” he told a cheering crowd in Columbus, Ohio.
This morning, however, the likely nominee was a little more measured and subdued. Asked during a press conference if he has begun thinking about who will occupy the bottom half of his presidential ticket, and if he will name said person before the convention, McCain brushed off the idea.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Abby Livingston
Tom Buffenbarger president of the machinists' union (International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers) was the the latest in a string of Clinton junkyard dogs unleashed upon Obama . Prior to Hillary Clinton’s speech last night in Youngstown, Ohio, Buffenbarger delivered nothing short of an Obama diatribe.
While campaign introductions typically sing the praises of the upcoming candidate, Buffenbarger's speech barely mentioned Clinton until the conclusion. It was all about Obama, and it was laced with venom and ad hominems.
VIDEO: Clinton supporter Tom Buffenbarger attacks Sen. Barack Obama during a campaign event in Youngstown, Ohio. Buffenbarger called Obama a “thespian,” and he sarcastically referred to the junior senator from Illinois as a “wunderkind.” He compared Obama to “Janus, the two-faced Roman god of ancient times.” And he pleaded with the crowd to boo Obama’s labor record.
Early in his speech, Buffenbarger asked, “So now we have a decision to make. Will we rely on the Harvard Law Review editor? The silver-tongued orator from Kansas, Hawaii and Illinois? The man in love with the microphone?”
Taking off the gloves, he said, “Barack Obama is no Muhammad Ali. He took a walk every time there was a tough vote in the Illinois State Senate. He took a walk more than a 130 times. That's what a shadow boxer does. All the right moves. All the right combinations. All the right footwork. But he never steps into the ring.”
But it was Obama supporters for whom Buffenbarger saved his most vitriolic contempt, and he proved that the Democratic Party’s coalition is nothing if not fragile. Channeling Howard Beale from the movie "Network," he yelled into the microphone, “Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine. He's a poet, not a fighter.”
With all this trash talk, who needs a Thrilla in Manilla?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Obama goes 10-0: The best way to end two days of tough press coverage? You go out and win a contested state -- and a general election battleground, to boot -- by 17 points. That’s exactly what Obama did in Wisconsin yesterday, and when you add his victory late last night in Hawaii, he’s now an eye-popping 10-0 since February 5. What’s more, every single win after Super Tuesday has been in the double digits, the narrowest margin being last night’s 17-point win. Yes, Obama outspent Clinton in Wisconsin. Yes, he campaigned in the state longer than she did. And, yes, Madison is full of potential Obama base supporters: college students and highly educated adults. But demographically, Wisconsin was a perfect place for Clinton to stop Obama’s momentum. And she tried with negative TV ads (hitting Obama on health care, Social Security, and not participating in debates), mailings (slamming him on health care and his “present” votes), and a well-timed oppo hit (on Obama lifting lines from Deval Patrick’s speeches). And still, per the exit polls, Obama won among those who decided on Election Day (though it was closer), as well as in the last three days. There's an argument that some in the Clinton campaign can make that the negative stuff was just starting to work. Then again, it was a 17-point win...
VIDEO: "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert talks with TODAY’s Meredith Vieira about the results of the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries. ***
Is it panic time yet? Losing as badly as she did in Wisconsin really puts Clinton’s campaign in as precarious of a position as it has ever been. The likelihood she can beat Obama as badly as she needs to in any remaining state -- let alone Ohio and Texas -- is very remote at this point. She no longer controls her own destiny, but now has to hope for an unforced error by Obama. And a big one. The good news for Clinton, the next six days provide two opportunities for unforced errors: debates. But how negative can Clinton go at this point? According to NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Newsweek's Howard Fineman, there's a divide inside the campaign about how negative to go. On one side is Mark Penn, who is ready to go all out (and who comes from the Bill Clinton school that there is no tomorrow, fight today); on the other is Mandy Grunwald and Howard Wolfson, who are worried about Clinton's legacy. After all, there has to be a point where Clinton says to herself, "there might be a next time." Isn't it possible Obama blows this as the nominee? And if so, who's going to be asked to pick up the pieces in 2009?
*** It’s the campaign, stupid…: Time and again, we hear anecdotes of how the Obama campaign has more staff here or more money there. This, of course, was a luxury Obama had versus Clinton. The Obama campaign knew they weren't going to win quickly, and so they prepared for the long campaign -- the delegate fight. The Clinton campaign has been surprisingly unprepared for the long haul. Remember when Clinton herself said the contest would be over February 5? This is the only way to explain the consistent caucus beat-down they take and the lack of preparation for Wisconsin. It's the Obama campaign that's doing the little things tactically. At some point, one has to wonder if Obama will start using the organizational success he's had in this campaign as a talking point about his own preparation to run the White House. After all, this is the largest organization either Clinton or Obama has run.
*** A troubling sign for Ohio? Clinton won just a few demographics in Wisconsin last night, including among white women (52%-47%) and those over 60 (54%-45%). But one group she lost, per NBC’s AnaMaria Arumi, was among whites making less than $50,000 (50%-48%). What’s significant for Obama is that -- outside of Utah and his home state of Illinois -- last night’s contest was his best score with that subgroup. Among all of those making under $50,000, Obama beat Clinton, 54%-44%; among those making more than $50,000, he won, 60%-39%. Clinton is targeting blue-collar workers, but has the wormed turned here, too?
VIDEO: After losing the Wisconsin primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., tells voters that the new president should rely on ‘hard work to get America back to work’. 'The question isn't whether we can,' says Clinton, 'but whether we will.' ***
The Delegate math: After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276. Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won't be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%. On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK...
VIDEO: Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., after winning the Wisconsin primary, encourages voters to ‘fight for every delegate needed to win the nomination’ and then to fight for the presidency. ***
The way to win? The Clinton campaign, meanwhile, has unveiled its own
Delegate Hub , a Web site listing “facts and myths” about the Democratic race for delegates. What’s most interesting here is that the campaign moves the 2025 magic number to include Florida and Michigan (thus 2208). And as Harold Ickes tried on Saturday, they want to erase the pledged vs. super distinction. This is the clearest signal yet that the Clinton campaign knows they can’t win as things stand now and need to win this on the perception front.
*** Compare and contrast: Lost in the attention of last night’s Democratic contest in Wisconsin was McCain’s own win in the Badger State, as well as in Washington. However, McCain should be thankful there won’t be many more back-to-back Election Night speeches, in which TV viewers can compare the speeches and the audiences. In fact, fast forward to the conventions and ask yourself: If you were McCain, would you want to have your convention first or second. (The GOP convention goes second.) But jeez, that was a long speech by Obama -- maybe too long. Obviously, last night was about putting the Deval Patrick issue to rest, so he spoke with no teleprompter and notes. We get it, but he rambled just a tad.
*** Buckeye Bill? Bill Clinton campaigns today and tomorrow in Texas. But just asking: Will we see him stump for his wife in Ohio? Because of NAFTA? According to the exit polls in Wisconsin, a whopping 72% said that trade with other countries takes more jobs from the state -- rather than creates them -- and Obama won those folks by a 57%-41% margin.
*** Michelle making news: Speaking of spouses, anyone else getting flashbacks to Hillary Clinton '92 when hearing Michelle Obama make news and, well, speak her mind? We can hear the divisive whispers about her already and some of the critiques come across like the ones Republicans leveled at Hillary '92. Barack may be coated in the same Teflon Reagan and Bill Clinton soaked in during their campaigns, but like Nancy and Hillary, Michelle Obama may not be as lucky.
VIDEO: Speaking to women voters in Rhode Island, Michelle Obama explains her "proud of my country" remarks. ***
On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton raises money in New York City before heading once again to South Texas, where she visits Hidalgo (with Rep. Ruben Hinojosa) and Brownsville (with Rep. Solomon Ortiz); Huckabee is also in Texas, where he holds a rally in Plano; McCain spends his day in Ohio before taking off to Obama’s home state of Illinois for a media avail; and Obama holds a rally in Dallas, TX. Also today, Michelle Obama campaigns in Rhode Island and Ted Kennedy stumps in South Texas.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 6
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In Wisconsin (with 99% of precincts reporting), Obama
handily won Wisconsin, 58%-41%. And in Hawaii (with 100% reporting), it was Obama 76%, Clinton 24%.
The
AP’s Ron Fournier writes, “The Democratic nomination is now Barack Obama's to lose. After nine consecutive defeats -- including a heartbreaker in tailor-made Wisconsin on Tuesday -- Hillary Rodham Clinton can't win the nomination unless Obama makes a major mistake or her allies reveal something damaging about the Illinois senator's background. Don't count her out quite yet, but Wisconsin revealed deep and destructive fractures in the Clinton coalition. It's panic-button time.“
The
Washington Post’s Balz writes, “Sen. Barack Obama won the Wisconsin Democratic primary and the Hawaii caucuses decisively last night, extending his winning streak to ten consecutive contests and dealing another significant blow to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose imperiled presidential candidacy now hangs on the outcome of showdowns in Ohio and Texas in two weeks. After a week of sparring that included the first negative ads of the campaign, Obama emerged victorious in the critical general-election battleground state of Wisconsin, and was treated to favorite son status with a lopsided win in Hawaii, where he was born.”
The New York Times : “For Mr. Obama, Hawaii was his 10th consecutive victory, a streak in which he has not only run up big margins in many states but also pulled votes from once-stalwart supporters of Mrs. Clinton,” like women, union members, and low- and middle-income people.
The New York Daily News’ DeFrank’s lead: “Finally, there's some happy news for Hillary Clinton: The most abysmal stretch of the primary season for her limping candidacy is over. Unfortunately, the damage may be irreparable.”
The Boston Globe : “Wis. win extends Obama streak.” Subhead: “Clinton steps up attacks; McCain calls victory the clincher.”
McCain won both the Wisconsin and Washington State primaries last night. In Wisconsin, he won by a convincing 55%-37% margin over Huckabee. And in Washington, he won 49%-22% over Huck. But it's worth noting that Romney also picked up 20% there, and Ron Paul took in 7%.
The
New York Times : “Mr. McCain declared victory in Wisconsin shortly after the polls closed and continued rolling past his last major challenger, Mr. Huckabee, toward the goal of winning the 1,191 delegates needed to seal the party’s nomination. But surveys of voters gave evidence of misgivings about his candidacy: more than 4 in 10 voters said Mr. McCain was not conservative enough; conservative voters split their votes evenly between the two men. And Mr. Huckabee won a majority of the vote of the one-third of evangelical voters who participated in the Republican primary.”
The Washington Post adds, “In his speech after the Wisconsin vote, McCain all but dismissed Clinton as a potential adversary, focusing his rhetorical fire on Obama as offering an "eloquent but empty call for change.’” More: “Mindful of McCain's attacks, he struck back at the likely GOP nominee. "I revere and honor John McCain's service to his country. He's a genuine hero," Obama told the audience at the Toyota Center. "But when he embraces George Bush's failed economic policies, when he says he's willing to send our troops into another 100 years in Iraq, then he represents the party of yesterday, and we want to be the party of tomorrow."
The AP : “McCain moves closer to nomination.” New York Daily News : “John McCain cruises in Wisconsin, Washington State.”
OBAMA: The
New York Times : “On Wednesday, the Obama campaign will report to the Federal Election Commission that it collected $36 million in January -- $4 million more than campaign officials had previously estimated -- an unprecedented feat for a single month in American politics that was powered overwhelmingly by small online donations. That dwarfed the $13.5 million in January that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is expected to report Wednesday and the $12 million Senator John McCain’s campaign said he brought in for the month.”
On those districts that produced zero votes for Obama in New York on February 5, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg said, "If you want to call it significant undercounting, I guess that's a euphemism for fraud." defended Obama’s use of a part of a speech he uttered during his 2006 run for Massachusetts governor.Boston Globe’s Scott Lehigh defends Obama’s use of the words. “This juxtaposition of well-known quotations simply isn't original enough to qualify as the unique creation of Patrick. As for Patrick's phrase ‘just words,’ it is, well, just words -- oh, egad, make that, merely words -- and pretty basic words at that, no matter how dramatic the emphasis. It would seem odd for Obama to have to somehow verbally footnote those two words to his friend.
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: “McCain
raised nearly $12 million in January… According to filings with the Federal Election Commission late Tuesday, McCain had $5.2 million cash on hand at the start of February and $5.5 million in debts, including a loan of nearly $4 million.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has unveiled a
new Web video that links McCain’s statements on Iraq to those of the DSCC’s targeted Republicans for 2008: Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, and John Sununu.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Obama campaign source tells NBC News that after the two speeches, Clinton called Obama to congratulate him. The conversation was described as "brief."
It was duly noted by the Obama campaign that Clinton once again neither congratulated nor conceded in her speech.
The Obama campaign also tells NBC News that their January money total was actually $4 million more than they had previously claimed -- due to more money coming in at the end of the month than they'd anticipated. A spokesman says the actual total was $36 million -- not $32 million -- which in itself was a one-month record.
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo Obama chalked up his ninth straight victory and won in this predominantly white state with a strong showing across a broad spectrum of voters and by eating into Hillary Clinton's base of support. He nearly tied her among women, won on all of the issues and won every income level. He also won the white vote under-60.
Electability has been something both campaigns have been touting. Tonight, Obama beat Clinton soundly -- 63%- 37% -- when voters were asked who would be most likely to beat the Republican candidate in the fall.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro McCain had some choice words for Obama . And in case you missed it, he paused, laughed, winked and waited for you to get it.
“I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change ,” McCain said, pausing (get it yet?), then chuckling (how ’bout now?), and then with a wink (for reinforcement), “that promises no more than a holiday from history and a return to the false promises and failed policies of a tired philosophy that trusts in government more than people.”
Or…”We live in a world of change , some of which holds great promise for us and all mankind and some of which poses great peril,” McCain said, then speakign on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Cuba and Venezuela. “Will the next President have the experience , the judgment experience informs , and the strength of purpose to respond to each of these developments in ways that strengthen our security and advance the global progress of our ideals? Or will we risk the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested invading our ally, Pakistan, and sitting down without pre-conditions or clear purpose with enemies who support terrorists and are intent on destabilizing the world by acquiring nuclear weapons?”
And…“I'm not the youngest candidate. But I am the most experienced .”
And he struck an inspirational chord at the end…
“Don't tell me what we can't do. Don't tell me we can't make our country stronger and the world safer. We can. We must. And when I'm President we will.”
All that’s missing in that last bit is, “Yes, we can.”
NOTE: Obama, by the way, referred to “straight talk” in his speech.
NBC News declares
Barack Obama as the projected winner in Wisconsin's Democratic primary.
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo Wisconsin has been a battleground where Hillary
Clinton and Barack
Obama have been trading barbs about who can create jobs and the numbers tonight indicate that the voters are listening. It's also an industrial state so what happens in Wisconsin may well be indicative of what might be ahead as we look to Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Democrats in the state are very concerned about the economy: 43% say it's the number one issue facing the nation. The war in Iraq was next at 29%, followed by healthcare at 25%. Regarding the economy, Nine out of ten Democratic voters in the state say the economy was in bad shape. This number is about 10 points higher than it was last year.
Related to feelings about the economy is the issue of trade. Seven out of 10 believe that international trade takes away more jobs compared to four years ago.
Another interesting note: Wisconsin's primary is an open primary, which means voters can walk into the voting booth and register on the spot. Also, when voters walk into the voting booth, they have a choice of candidates from both parties. One figure to watch tonight -- independents and how they break. More than one-in-four voters that cast their ballot today in the democratic primary consider themselves independent.
We're also seeing a good number of first time voters; 17% say this is their first primary election. That's about the same number we saw in New Hampshire. Although that figure is not the highest we've seen -- in Virginia it was more than a third of voters -- it's still notable.
NBC News declares John McCain the projected winner in Wisconsin's GOP primary.
The Democratic race in the state is too early to call. Obama has a substantial lead in the exit poll.
From NBC's Mark Murray Senator Clinton that there is a choice in this campaign," says Obama spokesman Bill Burton in a statement. "It's a choice between a candidate who's taken more money from Washington lobbyists than any Democrat or Republican running for President and a candidate who hasn't taken a dime of their money in this election. It's a choice between a candidate who's called NAFTA a victory and supported permanent trade with China and a candidate who will end tax breaks for companies who ship our jobs overseas and give them to companies who create good jobs in America. It's a choice between a candidate who voted for the war in Iraq and one who opposed it from the very beginning. It's a choice between going into this election with Republicans and Independents already united against us, or going against John McCain with a campaign that has already united Americans of all parties around a common purpose."
"The choice in this election is between more of the same divisive, say-or-do-anything-to-win politics of the past and real change that we can believe in. That's the change that Barack Obama offers, and that's why more and more voters across America are choosing him as our next President."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama strategist David Axelrod to respond to the latest report suggesting that Obama and Deval Patrick have shared even more language.
Below is the transcript of the interview...
Axelrod: I haven’t seen it, I can’t comment on it.
NBC/NJ: Well, I think Tapper insinuates that both these candidates are getting their language from you.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign has released excerpts of the speech Hillary Clinton will give tonight at 8:30 pm ET from Youngstown, OH. And, according to these excerpts, she doesn't mince words when talking about Obama .
"Tonight, I want to talk about the choice you have in this election -- and why that choice matters... This election is not about me or my opponent. It’s about you. Your lives, your dreams, your future," she will say.
"Right now, too many people are struggling. Working the day shift, the night shift, trying to get by without health care... They need a president ready on day one to be commander in chief. Ready to manage our economy. And ready to beat the Republicans this November. I will be that president."
More: "This is the choice we face: One of us is ready to be commander in chief in a dangerous world… One of us has a plan to provide health care for every single American -- no one left out… Finally, one of us has faced serious Republican opposition in the past. And one of us is ready to do it again.
And: "Both Senator Obama and I would make history. But only one of us is ready on day one to be commander in chief, ready to manage our economy, and ready to defeat the Republicans. Only one of us has spent 35 years being a doer, a fighter and a champion for those who need a voice. That is what I would bring to the White House. That is the choice in this election... It’s about picking a president who relies not just on words – but on work, hard work, to get America back to work. Someone who’s not just in the speeches business – but will get America back in the solutions business."
OFFICIAL NBC NEWS HARD COUNT (Democrats)
There are 43 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NY, TN and DC. We estimate those a 24-19 split for Obama. (1 pledged delegate was added to Clinton's column as a result of her win in New Mexico.)
SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (as of 1:20 pm, Feb. 19)
NOTE: This is one more for Obama than the last update. The addition comes because of the endorsement of Obama today by DNC Member Carol Ann Campbell (D-PA), a former Philadelphia City Councilwoman. This brings Obama's post-Feb. 5 superdelegate count to 15 to minus-3 for Clinton.
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
GRAND TOTAL
NBC Hard Count (Republicans)
NOTE: Of those 282 Romney delegates, the AP has allocated 73 of those so far to McCain, which would bring McCain to 908.
EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post indicated that there were 44 delegates still unallocated. It's actually 43, now that New Mexico has gone to Clinton. That makes it 24-19 in our estimate of remaining delegates in Obama's favor.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan SAN ANTONIO, Texas -- Obama hit the twin themes of mortgage fraud and special interests at a roundtable in San Antonio, at an event intended to make a play for working class and Latino voters.
Both Obama and Clinton released statements on mortgage fraud today, and Obama in his prepared remarks criticized Clinton's plans to freeze the monthly rate on existing adjustable mortgage rate for at least five years to help families hit by the crisis.
The Obama housing roundtable was part of a ramped up effort by the campaign to focus more on bread-and-butter issues. The roundtables, which have been a part of the campaign since Iowa, have increased in quantity, with the campaign usually holding at least two per week now as the try to increase their appeal and get an economic message out to working class voters.
"Senator Clinton's plan to freeze mortgage rates is not sufficiently targeted to struggling families who need help and would actually put more families at risk,” Obama’s statement reads. “In fact, one economic analyst called her plan 'disastrous.'"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters to look ahead to the upcoming pivotal March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas.
"The Obama campaign is going to be pulling resources into these two states," Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said. "These are major, major, major battleground states and they will be hotly contested," he said. "It will be a major test of the two candidates."
At the same time as it raised the stakes in Ohio and Texas -- two states where polls have shown Clinton to be leading, although a new poll shows a tie in Texas -- the Clinton campaign downplayed the Wisconsin primary and said a loss there wouldn't hurt its prospects in other states. "Wisconsin and Hawaii are both states that the Obama campaign predicted big victories in," Wolfson said. (In fact, the now-famous leaked Obama memo projects Obama winning in those respective states, 53%-46% and 52%-47%.)
Asked if tonight's results in Wisconsin could have an impact on the March 4 states, Clinton Texas state director Ace Smith replied, "Texas is one of those great, independent-thinking states... I think Texas is going to make up its own mind." Added Robby Mook, the campaign's Ohio state director: "I don't think voters in Ohio are worried about the horserace."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama , Clinton , and McCain stand on that issue. Below is NBC's research...
OBAMA. Wants to normalize relations -- if Cuba begins moving towards democracy
I would not normalize relations, but those two things, those two shifts in policy would send a signal that we can build on once Castro's out of power. (Brown and Black forum, 12/1/07)
But earlier didn’t qualify such support
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray "We have not, are not, and will not pursue the pledged delegates of
Barack Obama ,"
Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said in a conference call with reporters, in which the Clinton camp was discussing the upcoming contests in Texas and Ohio.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"You pour coffee, fix hair, you work the night shift at the local hospital," an announcer says. "You're often overworked, underpaid, and sometimes overlooked. But not by everyone. One candidate has put forth an American family agenda to make things easier for everyone who works so hard.
The ad concludes with Clinton at her desk under just the light of a desk lamp, "She understands. She's worked the night shift, too."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Andy Merten Clinton was the first out of the gate today to go on camera and comment on the ceding of power by Cuban leader Fidel Castro . She called news that Castro had resigned an opportunity for the island nation.
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., comments on the ceding of power by Cuban leader Fidel Castro during a campaign stop in Parma, Ohio. "I think this provides a great opportunity for the people of Cuba," Clinton said at an economic roundtable here. "I'm hoping that the new leadership will take steps to move Cuba toward democracy, release political prisoners, lift a lot of the oppressive burdens that have prevented the Cuban people from really having the kind of future that they deserve to have.
“Certainly the people of the United States would meet a new government to talk about what needs to happen, if that new government takes some action that demonstrates they're willing to change. And so we're hoping that we'll see some evidence of that. But it is a very stark reminder that even if you've been in power for 50 years you cannot hold onto power forever and people of Cuba deserve to have leadership that respects their human rights and gives them the opportunity to fulfill their own destiny. We need a president who will work with countries around the world, in Europe and the Western hemisphere to push Cuba now to join the community of nations and to become a democracy and I will certainly do that as president."
Clinton is campaigning in Ohio, a must-win state for her, as voters hit the polls in the Wisconsin primary. Her campaign has said they expect her to hold her own in the state, but have downplayed any expectations of a win.
*** UPDATE *** Obama's, McCain's and Huckabee's written statements on Castro:CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign is jumping all over today's article by the Politico's Roger Simon , who writes that Team Clinton is considering targeting the pledged delegates Obama has won. Says Obama manager David Plouffe in statement: “As it becomes increasingly clear that Senator Clinton may not be able to secure the nomination by winning the support of actual voters, the Clinton campaign has once again floated a strategy that would essentially say that the preference of Democratic voters is a mere obstacle to their win-at-all-costs strategy."
He continues, “Voters are already rejecting the Clinton campaign’s say-or-do-anything-to-win tactics, and this is the latest example that it’s time to turn the page on this type of politics that could severely harm our party’s chances to win the general election."
Of course, as Simon wrote, pledged delegates aren't required to cast their vote at the convention for the candidate who won them. But here -- as with the debate over superdelegates and over Florida and Michigan -- the Obama campaign is trying to claim the PR high ground.
*** UPDATE *** NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro All eyes on Wisconsin: Does Obama hold on to his momentum? Did the Clinton campaign’s attacks on Obama (over skipping debates, waffling on matching funds for the general election, and those Deval Patrick lines) end up working? We could very well find out the answers to those questions in today’s Wisconsin primary. If either Clinton wins or Obama wins significantly, the contest could wind up being a real turning point. For instance, a key part of Clinton’s coalition so far has been with older and blue-collar Democrats. If she wins, that means she again clobbered him in those groups. But if Obama wins a significant victory, he does it by chipping into these older and blue-collar Dems. And if he does that, watch out Ohio… Up for grabs in Wisconsin’s open primary are 74 pledged delegates. On the GOP side, 37 winner-take-all delegates are at stake (broken down by congressional district and statewide vote). Polls close at 9:00 pm ET.
*** The other contests: Elsewhere today, 20 delegates in the Democratic race are up for grabs in Hawaii -- where Obama grew up, where Chelsea Clinton has campaigned, and where we wish were right now. Hawaii’s presidential preference poll begins at midnight ET and ends at 12:30 am ET. And today’s primary in Washington State allocates the remaining half of the state’s GOP pledged delegates (19); the other half were won at its February 9 caucuses. The Washington State primary is a beauty contest on the Democratic side; the true Dem contest there was on February 9. Polls there open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET, although most voting is done by mail.
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama talks in an exclusive interview with TODAY's Matt Lauer about his campaign style and whether he can win in Hawaii and Wisconsin. ***
Words-Gate: Well, it looks like controversy over the lines that Obama borrowed from Deval Patrick is over. But it produced a day and a half’s worth of news clips, TV spots, and blog posts. This is what the Clinton campaign hopes this story begins to do: chip away at Obama's authenticity. A typical politician steals lines from other pols; that's the message the Clinton camp hopes this episode sends to voters in Ohio and Texas. It may be too late for Wisconsin voters. But after reading the RNC’s gleeful emails over the controversy, the episode brings up another point: The longer the Dem race goes on -- and the more oppo hits and attack conference calls the Clinton and Obama campaigns trade -- does the winner come out looking weaker and more vulnerable heading into the general election, especially with John McCain now sitting on the sidelines?
*** The NAFTA battle: As we look ahead to the March 4 contest in Ohio, NAFTA becomes a bigger and bigger issue. Here is what Obama said yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan: "By the way, one thing I do have to say about Senator Clinton -- she says, well, speeches don’t put food on the table. Well, you know what? NAFTA didn’t put food on the table in Youngstown either." Just asking: If Ohio was in a vacuum and there was an entire month to campaign in just that one state, would the pro-NAFTA candidate -- or more accurately, the candidate whose spouse passed NAFTA -- even have a chance?
*** Delegate update: The official NBC News hard count for the Democrats is Obama 1,116, Clinton 985. There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC. We estimate those a 24-20 split for Obama. The superdelegate total is Clinton 257, Obama 184 for a grand total of Obama 1,324, Clinton 1,262.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for a John Edwards endorsement and Democratic superdelegates. ***
On the trail: Clinton holds a rally tonight in Youngstown, OH; Huckabee holds a media avail at 10:00 pm ET in Little Rock, AR; McCain campaigns this morning in Wisconsin and then head to Columbus, OH for his Election Night party; and Obama, in Texas, stumps in San Antonio and holds an evening rally in Houston.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 7
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Wisconsin (D). Open primary (independents can vote) -- 74 delegates up for grabs (48 proportional by CD, 15% threshold; 26 by statewide vote, 15% threshold).
Wisconsin (R). Open primary (independents can vote) -- 37 delegates at stake (24 winner-take-all by CD; 16 winner-take-all by statewide vote).
Hawaii (D). Closed caucuses (independents cannot vote) -- 20 delegates up for grabs (13 proportional by the state’s two CDs, 15% threshold; 7 based on statewide results, 15% threshold).
Washington (R). Open primary (independents can vote): Feb. 9 caucuses were used to determine 18 (or 49%) of the state's pledged delegates. Today's primary will determine the back half (or 51% -- 19 delegates) -- 10 proportional by statewide vote, 20% threshold; 9 WTA by CD. Note: Washington’s Democratic primary is a beauty contest. Democrats will base all pledged delegate allocation on results of February 9 caucuses.
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal previews the Ohio battle through the prism of the white male swing vote.
And early voting has begun in Texas.
The Politico's Roger Simon writes that the Clinton campaign is targeting the pledged -- yes, pledged -- delegates that Obama has won. “‘I swear it is not happening now, but as we get closer to the convention, if it is a stalemate, everybody will be going after everybody’s delegates,’ a senior Clinton official told me Monday afternoon. ‘All the rules will be going out the window.’”
The bottom line, no delegate is pledged even on the first ballot. “‘Delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to at the convention or on the first ballot,’ a recent DNC memo states. ‘A delegate goes to the convention with a signed pledge of support for a particular presidential candidate. At the convention, while it is assumed that the delegate will cast their vote for the candidate they are publicly pledged to, it is not required.’”
HUCKABEE: Snow cut short Huckabee’s last-ditch effort in Wisconsin Monday, NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger notes, but not before he made clear he would continue on no matter the results in the primary. Huckabee brought a cheese head aboard his campaign plane as it made its way back to Little Rock Monday evening, and told reporters it was for a victory party. The plane waited for de-icing before taking off in near white-out conditions. Little Rock never looked so appealing.
He continued to stress he would stay in the race, for the first time talking past Texas and mentioning the Pennsylvania and North Carolina primaries, in April and May. “We see the last stand only when someone has 1,191 delegates,” he said when asked whether Texas would be his last opportunity to take on McCain. “Other than that we may go all the way to Minneapolis-St. Paul, to the convention.” He also acknowledged the importance of the March 4 primary. “One thing I know about Texans, they are very independent people,” he said. “They are not people who just say follow the leader because someone told them they ought to.”
MCCAIN: “[A]t the crucial do-or-die moment of the 2008 campaign, McCain unleashed one of the most dubious negative ads of this political season, helping to bury his chief rival Mitt Romney. McCain gets a pass for that ad in many people's eyes, if only because Romney himself had tried to win the nomination by blanketing the airwaves with attacks on McCain and Mike Huckabee. But the question of whether McCain would engage in negative campaigning is key to the general election, since the Democratic race may well turn on which candidate is better prepared to withstand what some consider the vaunted GOP attack machine.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Does anyone believe we'll see Clinton ever pull a trigger in public? Her hunting tale was shared with Wisconsin voters yesterday.
The Boston Globe : “As Hillary Clinton struggles to regain her momentum in the presidential race, frustrated feminists are looking at what they see as the ultimate glass ceiling: A female candidate with a hyper-substantive career is now threatened with losing the nomination to a man whose charismatic style and powerful rhetoric are trumping her decades of experience.”Bloomberg News has more details of Bill Clinton's relationship with that Canadian miner billionaire who took him to Kazakhstan. Bill's used the man's jet a few times.
OBAMA: At the end of the day, Obama borrowing lines from Patrick simply doesn't come across very presidential. "Obama, as the Globe detailed in an April 2007 article, has periodically used themes and even direct lines that echo speeches by Patrick, including the one cited yesterday by Clinton's campaign. Obama's campaign manager, David Axelrod, also worked closely with Patrick in his successful effort in 2006 to become the Bay State's first African-American governor. Obama used Patrick language again recently, remarking at a Milwaukee dinner on Saturday night that it was not true that ‘words don't matter.’”
More: “Patrick, who has endorsed the senator from Illinois and is campaigning for him, shrugged off the controversy last night as ‘a tempest in a teapot,’ while Obama acknowledged earlier yesterday that he should have credited his friend, but added that he and Patrick agreed not only on many issues but on the language to describe them. ‘There are always candidates out there who will trivialize the ability of Barack Obama to mobilize people and energize people’ with language, Patrick told the Globe.”
CONTINUED >>
We know we said we're taking the rest of the day off, but we figured for those of you wondering where things stand before tomorrow's primaries, here's the latest delegate count. The NBC Hard Count is unchanged since Feb. 14, and we added one superdelegate in Obama's column since Thursday. (This does not include John Lewis for Obama; he remains in the Clinton column -- none of us is quite sure what exactly his position is, since he hasn't commented on it since the New York Times piece. But it does include David Scott.) Official NBC News Hard Count (Democrats) Obama 1,116
NOTE: There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC.
NBC News Political Unit Estimate for those 44: Obama 24, Clinton 20.
NBC News Political Unit Superdelegate Count Clinton 257
GRAND TOTAL: Needeed to be Dem nominee: 2,025Official NBC News Hard Count (Republicans)
Needed to be nominee: 1,191
*** UPDATE *** Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX) of Obama today, the superdelegate total is now: Clinton 257, Obama 184. (Since Feb. 5, Obama has gotten 14 superdelegate endorsements, while Clinton has lost a net of three.)
The grand total then stands at:
First Read will be taking the rest of this holiday off to recharge our batteries for the upcoming contests and debates ahead.
We'll be back bright and early tomorrow morning.
Happy President's Day...
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Huckabee didn't have time to get a tan while in the Cayman Islands this weekend, but he did have time to talk about the island's notorious financial services industry.
Huckabee met with whom he referred to as the island's equivalent to a prime minister. Campaign officials have not confirmed the actual name or title. But Huckabee said Sunday night they had a "good discussion of many of the efforts the Caymans are making to clean up their banking industry and to make themselves a financial services center."
"To their credit, they've got the job done," he said, particularly in the last 15 years.
Most of what concerns Americans is not illegal practices, he noted.
"My whole point is not to say don't put money there because it's illegal, its perfectly legal," he said. "The problem is why should US investors have to put their money in places other than the United States to save. Because our tax system is choking the daylights out of any investments."
Huckabee said his "fair tax" proposal would change that. But making it easier for corporations in the United States probably wouldn't make him very popular on the island, he acknowledged.
"I'm sure he would rather not see us have the fair tax," he said.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** The Wisconsin test case : The Democratic race tomorrow in Wisconsin is shaping up to be a momentum race heading into the March 4 contests. Does Obama win handily there and in Hawaii, making him 10-0 since February 5? Or does Clinton pull off the upset -- or at least make it close -- in a state where’s campaigned only since Saturday. Clearly, the Clinton campaign is using Wisconsin is being used as something of a test case of how effective negative attacks on Obama can be. There's been nothing overly nasty, just some tough pokes like the health care mailer and the debate TV ads. If Clinton gets close to Obama tomorrow, the campaign will likely conclude the negative attacks worked, and they'll escalate a bit more ahead of the March 4 primaries.
*** Process this : The Clinton camp is hitting Obama hard on a few process issues, including over debates and campaign finance issues. While the press gets this stuff rather easily, do voters? Still, it appears McCain's got a more effective hit on Obama over the idea of whether he would take public financing as the nominee. This is actually an odd backtrack by Obama since it would be hard for Obama to figure out how to spend $85 million in a mere 60 days after the Democratic convention. More importantly, as the nominee, the DNC could then raise the serious hard dollars that Obama would be backing off from. So strategically, it seems like an easy promise for Obama stick to. But Obama's campaign must be a little hesitant to follow through on this promise, because it may worry Clinton's campaign can use this decision to "disarm" as one of the reasons superdelegates should be convinced that Clinton and not Obama would be the stronger nominee for the party.
*** Just words? Whose words? The oppo drop du jour is a YouTube clip of Obama friend and supporter Deval Patrick -- in 2006 -- saying virtually the same thing Obama did on Saturday night in Milwaukee. "Don't tell me words don't matter!” Obama said. “‘I have a dream' -- just words? 'We hold these truths to be self evident that all me are created equal' -- just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' -- just words? Just speeches?" The suggestion here: that Obama borrowed/recycled/pilfered (take your pick) Patrick’s lines. The Obama campaign, however, maintains that Obama and Patrick share lines all the time, and Patrick says that he applauded Obama from using this one on Saturday night. But is this a story? Back in April 2007, the Boston Globe wrote a similar piece over these very words, after Obama said that line to the New Republic. So Obama has said this before, and the press has reported it before (although not necessarily as a gotcha piece). Of course, the difference is that Obama is now the front-runner. More importantly, what would the reaction be if Clinton were the candidate accused of borrowing lines from another politician -- even one who is a friend and who shares the same media consultant? Obama probably escapes major criticism over this unless there's another instance that doesn't involve Patrick. On the up and up : Speaking of oppo, Bloomberg’s Tim Burger has a piece entitled “Obama Bought His Home With No Rezko ‘Discount,' Seller Affirms,” which basically concludes that everything was on the up and up regarding Obama’s purchase, even though he may have acted like he had something to hide. Anyway, the piece has new details and the first conversation with the original owner Obama brought from.
*** (Former) President’s Day : Today, in Houston at 10:30 am ET, McCain picks up the endorsement from former President George H.W. Bush. And it comes on the very day that the New York Times front-pages how McCain wants to utilize the current president, Bush 43. “Senator John McCain’s campaign advisers will ask the White House to deploy President Bush for major Republican fund-raising, but they do not want the president to appear too often at his side.” And that seems to make the most sense. McCain needs major fundraising help, and Bush 43 can certainly do this for him. Interestingly, McCain may have the luxury of using Bush on the campaign trail (at least with conservatives), since he's still not seen as a rank-and-file conservative by the press or party stalwarts. So this could give McCain more flexibility in using Bush than Gore had in using Clinton.
*** Veepstakes! With McCain now the presumptive GOP nominee, the veepstakes stories have arrived. Here is what appears to be the McCain short list, per recent articles: Haley Barbour (southern economic conservative with Katrina cred), Charlie Crist (the guy who DELIVERED the GOP nod to McCain, period; but can he get married before Labor Day?), Mike Huckabee (see below), Kay Bailey Hutchison (can McCain pick a pro-choice Republican?), Tim Pawlenty (the early front-runner?), Condi Rice (too much Iraq on one ticket?), and Mark Sanford (the other early front-runner?). Question, though: Does Huckabee’s Cayman Islands speech eliminate him from the conversation?
*** On the trail : Clinton spends her entire day in Wisconsin, stumping in De Pere, Wausau, and Madison; Huckabee is also in the Badger State, hitting Hudson, Eau Claire, and Appleton; McCain campaigns in Wisconsin after picking up his endorsement from Bush 41 in Texas; and Obama holds a rally in Youngstown, OH and then heads back to Wisconsin for an evening rally in Beloit.
Countdown to Wisconsin and Hawaii: 1 day
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More of Clinton's African-American superdelegate supporters are feeling the heat .
Al Hunt has a very smart column defending the superdelegate process. "Should Obama win Ohio or Texas or Pennsylvania, the superdelegates will follow the voters and he'll win the nomination. If he doesn't, and the race isn't settled as the convention approaches in August, the superdelegates might control the outcome. That, however, isn't thwarting any popular will; instead, it would be figuring out the most politically advantageous way to resolve a deadlock.”
“In the end, Obama or Clinton will owe a small debt, not to special interests seeking favors or to well-heeled fat cats, but to top politicians with whom they will have to deal if elected president. That's a good thing."
The Washington Post's Balz looks at Clinton's long-standing ties to Texas. "From her incidental connections such as the one Salinas described from the 1992 campaign, to deep friendships formed working in Texas during the 1972 presidential campaign of George McGovern, to acquaintances gained from multiple visits over the past decades, Clinton is rooted in Texas as she is in few other states."
But: "Clinton's built-in advantages here could be foiled by the rules governing the distribution of delegates, even in the primary portion of the contest. Some of the most delegate-rich districts are in areas where Obama may have his greatest strength, particularly those with sizable black populations. The 10 most heavily Hispanic districts will award far fewer delegates. By one analysis, Clinton could win those Hispanic districts 60 to 40 percent and still emerge with just a two-delegate advantage among one of her strongest constituencies in the state."
CLINTON: The Clinton campaign has a new way of circulating its views on the economy. "Clinton's campaign released a 13-page blueprint for fixing the economy Monday, detailing the former first lady's plans to achieve universal health care, address the home foreclosure crisis and develop jobs for the middle class. The pamphlet, which will be distributed to voters at campaign events and posted online, outlines many of the ideas she talks about on the campaign trail each day. But by pulling them together, the document resembles a populist manifesto - with Clinton championing the needs of working-class voters over corporate and business interests.”
“‘Over the past seven years, big corporations and special interests have been given a free pass to profit, often at the expense of the American worker. As President, Hillary will make it a priority to scale back special benefits and subsidies to these corporations and put those resources to work for our economy again,’ the pamphlet declares. Among other things, the document stresses Clinton's plan to freeze home foreclosures and subprime adjustable rate mortgages - a plan some economists believe would raise interest rates on other consumers.”
Bill Clinton's outbursts yesterday, which we detailed, were probably not that bad -- despite the heavy Drudge play. There was a passion to it that didn't seem out of place.
CONTINUED >>
HUCKABEE : Do we really believe Huckabee doesn't know how much he made off his Cayman Islands speech ?
MCCAIN : It looks like the McCain campaign has figured out how to immediately use President Bush, and that's in the area of fundraising . "But even as the consensus was that Mr. McCain needed to ‘stand in the sun’ on his own, as one adviser put it, without the large shadow cast by Mr. Bush, left unsaid was the difficult calculus the McCain campaign faces: Using Mr. Bush enough to try to make the tough sell of Mr. McCain to conservatives but not so much that he will drive away the independents and some moderate Democrats that Mr. McCain is counting on in November."
“‘What an incumbent president can do is help a new nominee with fund-raisers, maybe with unifying the party, maybe with getting out the vote in Republican areas,’ said Charles Black, a top adviser to Mr. McCain and an outside adviser to the White House who has been part of every Republican presidential campaign since 1976. ‘But the important thing to remember is, the nominee is on their own. And no president, no matter how popular and effective politically, can carry somebody.’”
The AP : “‘No new taxes,’ the probable GOP presidential nominee said during a taped interview broadcast yesterday. His words brought to mind the phrase uttered by George H.W. Bush at the 1988 Republican National Convention: ‘Read my lips: No new taxes.’” New York Daily News looks at some tempermental exchanges involving McCain.
McClatchy has a good roundup of pros and cons on potential McCain running mates. Listed: Haley Barbour, Charlie Crist, Condi Rice, Mike Huckabee, Kay Bailey Hutchison and Mark Sanford.
The Politico , meanwhile, focuses on Tim Pawlenty. “Even through the McCain campaign's darkest days in 2007, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty remained a steadfast ally to the Arizona senator in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination. As a result, with John McCain as the clear GOP frontrunner and insider talk turning to speculation about his possible running mate, party insiders are now buzzing about the 47-year-old, second-term governor's vice-presidential prospects.”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton snapped hard at an anti-abortion protestor who had interrupted him.
“I gave you the answer. We disagree with you," Clinton said. "You wanna criminalize women and their doctors and we disagree... I reduced abortion… Tell the truth, tell the truth… If you were really pro-life, if you were really pro-life, you would want to put every doctor and every mother as an accessory to murder in prison. And you won’t say you wanna do that because you know that because you know that you wouldn't have a lick of political support. Now, the issue is who … the issue is, you can't name me anybody presently in politics that did more to introduce policies that reduce the number of real abortions instead of the hot air putting out to tear people up and make votes by dividing America."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli CANTON, OH -- Robert Holeman came to Timken High School here today with a message to deliver to Bill Clinton . He did -- and he said the former president wasn’t happy about it.
Clinton spoke to a capacity crowd in this Northeast Ohio town, the third of five events today in the Buckeye State. He told voters that the contest was “the power of speeches against the promise of solutions by a world-class change maker.”
Throughout the event, as Clinton made his case for his wife, Holeman’s dissenting voice could be heard. At times he simply shouted Obama’s name. When Clinton would set up a sure applause line, Holeman could be heard heckling. As soon as Clinton finished speaking, the Canton native made a beeline to the ropeline to give Clinton a piece of his mind.
“I asked the president to please stop the bickering between the campaigns,” Holeman said in an interview afterwards. “All this name calling is like the bully in the yard. He can’t get his way, he can’t get nothing done.” Holeman said he thought Clinton was “gasping for air.”
“This is the last hurrah. After March 4, Hillary Clinton will be out of the race for good, and Obama will take the commanding lead,” he said. “She should back him with her delegates immediately. That’s what I’m asking them to do.”
Holeman said that Clinton responded by saying Obama came after him first. Holeman also described Clinton’s reaction to him as “irate.”
“I think he even hit me in the face with his hand,” he said. “He did give me a little pop. It was okay, because I understand his tenacity for his wife.” Clinton did engage Holeman for a few minutes, at times pointing directly at him. It was unclear whether he did make physical contact, however.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Hillary Clinton -- at least among campaign staffers and many voters who have met her -- is that the while she may not come across on stage as well as Barack Obama, the closer people get to her, the more they like her.
So when bad weather prevented a plane trip to Green Bay, forcing the cancellation of an event in nearby De Pere, Clinton went to Miss Katie's Diner here to press the flesh. It's the kind of close interaction she likes. The visit thrilled six young women seated at a corner booth, who talked excitedly amongst themselves as the senator slowly worked her way toward them.
One told the group this could help her make up her mind come Election Day. Rep. Tammy Baldwin chatted briefly with the women before Clinton came over with Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton . The senator called them "dynamic women" and talked about her student supporters and college campuses that she said were "coming alive again."
"I encourage all of you to get involved in some way or another," Clinton said.
Afterwards, the three women eligible to vote in the state said they were still undecided, but that this personal contact had helped. One student, who attends Xavier University in Ohio -- a key state for Clinton -- explained why she was having trouble deciding between Clinton and Obama .
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray First Read has learned that Obama and Edwards finally had their meeting this morning in Chapel Hill, NC.
The Obama campaign confirmed the meeting but would not provide any other details.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama campaign today cried foul today over a health-care mailing that the Clinton camp distributed in Wisconsin.
The mailer, which shows a rainbow assortment of young and old Americans, asks: "Barack Obama, Which of these people don't deserve health care?" The line is a play off of Clinton's stump speech, in which she asks rhetorically who should she choose not to give health care to: The single mom? The waitress? The retiree?
On a second page it reads, "Barack Obama's plan says NO WE CAN'T, leaving 15 million people without coverage." It goes on to list bullet points claiming that the plan "wastes billions" and would cost Americans $1,700 per person." Obama has long claimed that his plan would cut costs more than any other's and would cut costs for individuals. But Clinton has seized on his plan's lack of a mandate to say he's not really offering universal health coverage.
The mailing also quotes a line from New York Times' columnist Paul Krugman -- a fierce critic of Obama -- saying that the candidate's claim that he is passing universal health care is "unscrupulous demagoguery from the candidate himself."Sen. Ted Kennedy , responding to the mailing told reporters in a conference call that he had been fighting for universal health care for 38 years and would not have endorsed Obama if he didn't believe that he wasn't for it or couldn't pass it.
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton said this morning that America faces serious challenges, and that only the political system could address them.
“Politics is important, because there are some things we do through our elected leaders that can be done in no other way,” he said at the St. Paul AME Church here this morning. “The truth is, we can never build a good society unless we have strong citizens, strong families and communities and churches, and strong leadership.”
The former president spoke at length about problems in the economy and health care, and then talked about solutions that he said “only the political system can make.”
“Only the political system can decide, will you finally stop making excuses and get everybody health care and get rid of these excessive costs,” he said. “You’re not going to be able to save the economy or get more jobs past a certain job unless we do it. That is a decision for you to make.”
Clinton also argued that the job of the president in particular is “to take the good intentions we all have and turn them into positive changes in other people’s lives.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama opened his speech last night at Wisconsin's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner with the claim that he -- not Clinton -- is the underdog. "I knew I'd be the underdog in every contest from January to June," Obama told the crowd here, saying that creating change and winning the nomination would be "hard."
Yet the attempt to downplay expectations though was somewhat at odds with his introduction by Gov. Jim Doyle (D), an Obama endorser, who touted the Illinois senator's victories to the crowd. "There have been eight-straight states. There have been eight straight elections that he has won," Doyle told the crowd, adding that Obama competed in every state rather than picking and choosing the ones that would have benefited him demographically.
"He has honored us, day after day and town after town in Wisconsin. You should see how hard he works," Doyle added, pointing out that despite expectations that he will win in this state, the Obama campaign has campaigned with a steady intensity here, leaving nothing to chance.
Obama also pushed against charges that he was all promises and not policy, breaking from his prepared remarks to riff that iconic words like "I had a dream" were not "just words."
"Don't tell me words don't matter! 'I have a dream' -- just words? 'We hold these truths to be self evident that all me are created equal' -- just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' -- just words?. Just speeches?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Hillary Clinton yesterday said she was prepared for a long race and that it was not unusual for the nomination battle to continue up to the convention.
She also talked a lot about rules and made a point of telling the reporters assembled here at the Brat Stop yesterday that she knew more about the political process than they did. And she repeated her contention that the Florida and Michigan delegations be seated, citing party rules.
"The rules provide for a vote at the convention to seat contested delegations. This goes back as long as I've been in politics. It goes back to the 1940s, by my memory, and maybe before that," she said during a press conference. "There is nothing unusual about this. You know, I know that some of you have only covered the '04 and the 2000 campaign, which were really kind of anomalies. The nominees were determined early, but that's not the usual pattern. My husband didn't wrap up the nomination in '92 until June, and usually it takes a while to sort all this out. And that's why there are rules, Democratic Party rules -- that if there are contested delegations the convention votes on them. Those are the rules."
The focus on rules here is important (and ironic) to note, since the reason the two states were stripped of their delegates was that they broke party rules by moving up their primaries.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Hillary . You know, if you care.
Speaking to an enthusiastic crowd of Democrats in the heavily conservative Texas panhandle yesterday afternoon, former president Bill Clinton said that voters who "want to feel better about" universal health care but "don't really care that much about it," can go ahead and vote for his wife's rival. He added that Obama's plan, which critics allege would leave millions of Americans without insurance, only cuts the number of uninsured in half without reducing costs.
“If it’s not that important and you just want to feel better that we’re making the problem a little better," Clinton said, "and we’re gonna get, you know, half the people who don’t have insurance, even if it costs us more but you don't really care that much about it, then you have an alternative."
Clinton noted that, on the issue of health care, it is priorities and not policies that are up for dispute between supporters of the two candidates. "You gotta decide whether you care," he said of the health care differences between Hillary and her remaining competitors. "You can say you don't care, but you can't say it's not there."
The crowd, dotted with Texan cowboy hats, rewarded that sentiment with a standing ovation.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
And in a conference call today, Ray Mabus, former governor of Mississippi and an endorser of Obama, told reporters that statements by a prominent Clinton surrogate who discounted Obama's wins in Red states like Kansas and Idaho marginalized voters in those regions.
His comments were in response to Harold Ickes, who in a call earlier today , told reporters that the Obama campaigns' touting of victories in Red States didn't amount to much more than an exercise in political showmanship that would do little to help Democrats win in November.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Kennedy isn't one to disappoint a crowd.
The Massachusetts senator was late for a campaign appearance in Cleveland for Obama this morning. Just as the event was to start, he called County Commissioner Tim Hagan to say he was in Columbus, and would be another hour. Told that he had a crowd of over 250 waiting to see him, Kennedy asked to say hello.
"We're on our way," he said through Hagan's cell phone. "Neither sleet nor snow nor ice nor delayed flights are keeping us away from you. So we'll be over there in just a little bit. Thanks so much."
After a round of cheers, Hagan proposed an alternative plan. "Maybe we should have had him do the speech on the damn phone," he said. Instead Hagan and a round of campaign staffers were speaking, urging those on hand to spread the word about Obama and sign up to volunteer on election day.
On superdelegates Kennedy, whose own bid for the presidency went to the floor of the 1980 Democratic convention, weighed in on the role of superdelegates in the 2008 contest. "I think this oughta be decided by the elected delegates," Kennedy told reporters after finally making it to the rally. "That's the way we oughta go. And I'm confident that if it's done that way, Barack Obama's gonna be successful."
Kennedy did not elaborate on whether his or other superdelegates' votes should be considered, saying only thay leaving it to "elected" delegates was "the most democratic way to go."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and NBC's Domenico Montanaro all-out negative ad released by the Clinton campaign yesterday that not only challenged Obama to debate in Wisconsin, but also attacks him on social security and favoring Cheney's oil bill.
"After 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates,” an announcer says in the Obama ad. “It's the same old politics.” The ad also says that Obama has a better plan for social security (in fact, that Clinton doesn't have a plan) and that his health-care plan, per the estimate of a former Clinton labor secretary, covers more people. On the Cheney oil bill charge, the ad says Obama "sponsored a bill to end tax breaks for oil companies."
Obama is also going up with three ads each in Vermont and Rhode Island, which hold primaries on March 4.
Here's the script: Announcer: After 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates? It's the same old politics. Here's the truth. Obama has a plan to protect Social Security benefits and the current retirement age. Hillary doesn't. On health care, even Bill Clinton's Labor Secretary says Obama covers more people than Hillary. And Obama sponsored a bill to end tax breaks for oil companies. Tired of the same old politics? Vote for change we can believe in.
Obama: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton continued to slam Obama's discounting of "fights" of the past, even saying that Obama's argument can be blamed for the elimination of Democratic candidates who have already dropped out of the race.
"If you fought you made somebody mad, and you got cut up," he said, parodying what he says is Obama's "explicit argument" against Clinton. "We just have to turn over a new leaf. And it is actually an advantage not to have any experience because then you never made anybody mad."
Clinton added that the strategy of equating experience with the taint of partisan injury "has been very effective in this campaign."
"It has already taken four candidates out, four good candidates out," he said. "And it would have taken Hillary out if she didn't have so much grassroots support and so much guts in the face of a lot of what has happened here. "
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
As Obama traveled from Milwaukee to the campuses of the University of Wisconsin at Oshkosh and then Green Bay, ending the night at Kroll's Fish Fry in Green Bay, I was reminded of that picture. Obama has the land of the cheeseheads all to himself - for now.
At stop after stop, Obama took shots at his opponents. He ridiculed Clinton's healthcare failures in '93, saying you can't get universal healthcare by "hollering at Republicans." In Oshkosh, he responded in person to a crowd of several thousand on not debating Clinton, one of political footballs tossed between the campaigns over the course of the day.
"She's got an ad running right now saying, 'Well, uh, Barack Obama won't debate.' We've had 18 debates! Eighteen debates! I've got two more scheduled next week. But that's what happens when you've been in Washington a long time -- your attitude becomes, I'll just say whatever might work to win an election," he told the crowd to cheers of approval.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ron Allen Huckabee campaign bus recently, we walked into a Hillary Clinton event outside Cleveland last night. What a difference the possibilty of winning versus the likelyhood of losing makes. The Clinton event is in a packed gym with a gospel choir and a marching band. I don't think the cumulative audience at Huckabee's four events in Wisconsin matches the size of this one Clinton event. The Huckabee campaign just rented a sound system and played a few CDs...so few the songs repeated a few times. McCain draws much bigger crowds than Huckabee. We were with him in Florida and elsewhere. One of Romney's largest crowds was one of his last in Long Beach, Calif. That was smaller than this. Obama . It's all perhaps another reminder of the enthusiasm and huge turnout on the Democratic side through the primary season, and what the Republicans could be up against in November.
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones and NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Ickes, a DNC member and superdelegate himself, said the campaign expects Clinton to "hold her own" in Wisconsin, to win Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania and to have come close to closing the delegate gap with Obama by March 5th. He said by the end of the process on June 7th, when Puerto Rico votes, she would be "neck and neck" with Obama and would wrap up the nomination soon after. Ickes said the nomination would be settled "before we get to the floor" of the convention but that the campaign would take this fight all the way to Denver.
Ickes argued the "superdelegates" should be called "automatic delegates" instead, because the former makes it sound like they have “superpowers.” The DNC itself refers to them as “superdelegates” and as “unpledged” delegates.
"Automatic delegates don't have superpowers. Their vote isn't given any extra weight," Ickes said, explaining it was still a one-person, one-vote scenario, though they already get the opportunity to vote in primaries and caucuses like regular voters.
The effort to change the terms journalists use to refer to the superdelegates was particularly interesting as a political ploy. The word "automatic" has implications that would seem to fit well with the arguments the Clinton camp has been making, namely that superdelegates should exercise their independent judgment.
On Florida and Michigan, the campaign again said voters in those states should not be “disenfranchised” and that the states were important to the Democratic Party's fortunes. Ickes also said Clinton didn't vote on the DNC rules.
But Ickes did. And he voted in August to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates as a sitting member of the Rules and Bylaws Commission.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones CUYAHOGA FALLS, Ohio -- Akron Mayor and Clinton backer Don Plusquellic tried a little bit of comic relief during his brief remarks at a Summit County Democratic Party fundraiser where the senator was speaking Friday eveningOprah Winfrey , an Obama supporter, and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones .Ted Strickland . It was an odd comparison, because it was unclear what one woman had to do with the other. While it may not be the only thing, it would appear that the main thing the two women have in common is that they are both black.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain campaign announced that the Arizona senator plans to meet with George H.W. Bush on Monday in the former president's home state of Texas. NBC has confirmed that former President Bush is expected to endorse McCain at a press conference following their meeting.
And although he would not confirm an impending endorsement, this afternoon McCain called Bush one of the "most respected people in our party."
"I've had the pleasure of knowing and working for him as president for many years, and I'm going to meet with him on Monday," McCain said. "I'm going to fly to Houston and have a meeting with him and it's always a pleasure to be in his company."
McCain also ramped up the energy of his stance on accepting public financing in the general election, and criticized Barack Obama for wavering on his commitment to do the same.
"It was very clear to me that Senator Obama had agreed to having public financing of the general election campaign if I did the same thing," McCain told reporters after a town hall in Oshkosh this morning. "I made the commitment to the American people that if I were the nominee of my party, I would go the root of public financing, I expect Sen. Obama to keep his word to the American people as well."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton has been slamming Obama's lack of love for the '90s for weeks now, knocking the Illinois senator's disregard for the fights and successes of the Clinton era. But today, he was more caustic than usual in his criticism.
"There are two competing moods in America today," he told a crowd of about 900 here. "People who want something fresh and new, and they find it inspiring that we might elect a president who literally was not part of any of the good things that happened or any of the bad things that were stopped before."
Clinton went on to say that "The explicit argument of the campaign against Hillary is that no one who was involved in the 1990s or this decade can possibly be an effective president because they had fights."
"We're not going to have any of those anymore," he said sarcastically,
"Well, if you believe that," he added, "I got some land I wanna sell you."
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton’s campaign in Ohio is reacting strongly to a mailer from the Obama campaign that hits her on NAFTA. One of her key labor supporters said the piece almost amounts to “mail fraud,” and claimed that other unions now siding with Obama -- as the SEIU is today -- are doing so only out of “sheer opportunism.”
“The Obama campaign until very, very recently had no union support because they didn’t believe that their constituency ... should include blue-collar workers,” Rick Sloan, a representative of the Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, said on a conference call today. “Unions that are joining them are doing it out of sheer opportunism... What they don’t understand is that this race is not over. It has just begun.”
The Obama mailer, which shows a closed sign hanging on a gate outside a factor, claims that Clinton once felt NAFTA would be a “boon” to the economy. It sites a 2006 Newsday questionnaire for Clinton’s 2006 Senate race that stated as such. Newsday’s blog yesterday corrected the record, saying that was its characterization of “how we best understood her position.”
Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher said it was disappointing that Obama chose to introduce himself to state voters in such a way. Sloan said the mailer “really reached over the bounds,” and was just short of “mail fraud.” “[Clinton is] on record having said that NAFTA has not lived up to its billing and needs to be fixed,” Fisher said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Gabriel Herman Huckabee commented on the tragic Northern Illinois University shooting, stating: “On any given day, our lives can really be in danger. And the sad thing is, students get up and just go to class trying to get their education and someone that goes off his rocker ends up creating just utter mayhem. I think our heart goes out to the victims and family and a reminder again of how vulnerable life is.”
When pressed on what the president can do during such times, the former Arkansas governor responded, “I think a president ought to just encourage this country to once again to get back to their own moral center. This is an act of outrage and true criminal intent. We do not know enough about the shooter to know if he was mentally unstable. Obviously, no president can say you are going to go out there and prevent people from doing crazy things. Hopefully, what you can do, is to make sure when crazy things happen there is a national face on it and your heart, your prays and your thoughts go to those people."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
She used several harsh, new turns of phrase to hammer home a point she began to make in the lead-up to the New Hampshire primary, arguing her opponent, known for his great oratory, is all talk and little action.
Those who wondered whether the New York senator would begin hitting her rival from Illinois hard to try to stop his momentum, seemed to get their answer here during a speech at a General Motors plant.
"Over the years you've heard plenty of promises from plenty of people in plenty of speeches and some of those speeches were probably pretty good, but speeches don't put food on the table. Speeches don't fill up your tank. Speeches don't fill your prescriptions or do anything about that stack of bills that keeps you up at night. That's the difference between me and my Democratic opponent: my opponent makes speeches. I offer solutions," she said to applause. "It is one thing to get people excited. I want to empower you. This is not about me. This is about you."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Rep. John Lewis (D) really endorse Barack Obama ? Obama isn't quite sure himself. Asked at a press conference this morning if Lewis had switched his endorsement, Obama pointed to the New York Times reporter who broke the story, Jeff Zeleny, saying he knew more than he did.
"I have not spoken to Congressman Lewis, I haven't spoken to him prior to this report. I put in a call to him after the report to find out what he was thinking but I have not received word from him yet."
The question followed news reports that Lewis, a prominent civil-rights leader and back of Hillary Clinton , said he wouldn't vote against the wishes of voters in his district who had overwhelmingly voted for Obama in Georgia's primary.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff Michelle Obama got a little tongue-tied -- as have others -- in Columbus, Ohio. She started off with what was going to be a bold statement. "We are going to win Iowa...Ohio," she said, quickly correcting herself.
"We are going to win OHIO like we won IOWA, is my point. What I am trying to say is that the feeling that I feel here in Ohio, is just what I felt in Iowa."
Michelle Obama also urged the crowd not to overlook the importance of inspiration and hope. "Our souls are broken," she said. "And right now we need some inspiration. Inspiration and hope are not words. Everything begins and ends with hope. And the only person in this race who has a chance of getting us where we need to be is Barack Obama."
She told the crowd they have two choices: "The first choice is voting for the people have been doing the same thing, same folk, same game plan and expecting that we are going to get different results." The other, she said: "Is Barack Obama."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Expect those truth-o-meters, Pinocchios and other fact-checking devices to be abuzz.
Here's the script for "Deserves": Announcer: Barack Obama still won't agree to debate in Wisconsin. And now he's hiding behind false attack ads. Maybe he doesn't want to explain why his health care plan leaves out 15 million people and Hillary's covers everyone.
Or why he voted to pass billions in Bush giveaways to the oil companies, but Hillary didn't. Or why he said he might raise the retirement age and cut benefits for social security. But Hillary won't.
Why won’t Barack Obama debate these differences? Wisconsin deserves better. Clinton: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Asked about his response ad to Clinton's debate-challenge ad on not debating, he said, "Our general attitude is that any time somebody goes up with something
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Cheney had weighed in on a congressional opposition to the District of Columbia's ban on guns had Obama clarifying his position on the second amendment this morning.
However, he went on to defend the right of municipalities to establish their own handgun laws. "The city of Chicago has gun laws, so does Washington, D.C.," Obama said. "The notion that somehow local jurisdictions can't initiate gun safety laws to deal with gangbangers and random shootings on the street isn't born out by our constitution." Washington, D.C., Mayor Adrian Fenty is an endorser of Obama.
Asked to elaborate on his understanding of what the second amendment actually means, Obama said that he does believe the second amendment "speaks to an individual's right." But he said that right could be "subject to common-sense regulation just like most of our rights are subject to common-sense regulation. So I think there's a lot of room before you [sic] bumping against a constitutional barrier for us to institute some of the common-sense gun laws."
In response to the crisis at Northern Illinois University, Obama said what the families were going through was unimaginable. He called for existing gun laws to be strengthened and pointed to a new law in California that allows authorities to trace bullets back to the guns they came from as a measure that both sides of the gun debate could potentially agree upon.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
“We are not standing on the brink of recession because of forces beyond our control,” Obama said at one point, per a transcript provided by his campaign. “This was not an inevitable part of the business cycle. It was a failure of leadership in Washington … A Washington where politicians tout NAFTA as a success when they're in the White House and then call it a mistake when they're on the campaign trail.”
On her attack, Obama called it the “latest in a long line of slogans.” Now, all of us have proposed plenty of solutions in this race. On some we differ. On many, we agree.” Ideas, are instead, “the victim of petty, partisan politics, point-scoring, and special interest influence that's out of control.” He extended that, saying the real question is, “[W]ho can change that? Who can break us out of the gridlock?”
And then he went after her on lobbyists, “You know, after defending Washington lobbyists as people who ‘represent real Americans’ at a debate in August, Senator Clinton said yesterday that she would take them on as President. But in this campaign, she's taken nearly double the amount of money from lobbyists than any Democrat or Republican running for President. That's not being a part of the solutions business. That's being a part of business-as-usual in Washington.”
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Clinton -Obama contest moving to Wisconsin (February 19) and then to Ohio (March 4), it was inevitable that NAFTA would start becoming a much bigger issue.
Many economists have viewed the North American Free Trade Agreement -- enacted during Bill Clinton's presidency -- as an overall plus for the US economy. But especially after all the nation's manufacturing job losses, that five-letter trade accord has become a four-letter word in Democratic politics, particularly in the industrial Midwest.
That reality has forced Hillary Clinton to distance herself from one of the her husband's signature achievements. "Look, NAFTA did not do what many had hoped," she said at a debate in November. "NAFTA was a mistake to the extent that it did not deliver on what we had hoped it would."
In a debate a month later, Clinton called for the trade agreement to be changed. "I want to be a president who focuses on smart, pro-American trade. I will review every trade agreement. I'm going to ask for revisions that I think will actually benefit our country, particularly our workers, our exporters... And NAFTA will be part of that review, to try to reform and improve it."
But in a press conference today, Obama tried to link Clinton to her husband's NAFTA. "We are not standing on the brink of recession because of forces beyond our control. This was not an inevitable part of the business cycle," he said. "It was a failure of leadership in Washington -- a Washington where George Bush hands out billions of tax cuts to the wealthiest few year after year after year. A Washington where politicians tout NAFTA as a success when they’re in the White House and then call it a mistake when they’re on the campaign trail."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's John Boxley Huckabee met and shook hands with customers at the Original Pancake House in Brookfield, WI.
Afterwards, the former Arkansas governor hopped in a van and headed to the airport and a flight to the Cayman Islands where he will deliver a paid speech Saturday. The campaign will return to the trail Sunday night with an event planned in Northern Milwaukee.
From NBC's Mark Murray In his latest installment of interviews, John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times chats with New York Sen. Chuck Schumer (a Clinton backer) about the presidential contest and the upcoming Senate races.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Judging a president by her campaign : As voters decide whom to support for president, should how the candidates actually ran their campaigns be part of the equation? What can we learn about the type of presidencies each of the three major candidates will have should they win? Clinton had a plan and stuck to it -- invest heavily in Iowa and New Hampshire and try to run up the score on Super Tuesday -- and now is having to come up with a Plan B that could be too little too late. Does this mean she won't have too many Plan Bs as president? If she's ready to be president on Day One, should she have been ready to run a primary campaign on February 6? What about all the money the Clinton campaign blew through, as well as the conflict among staffers? When the tough got going, the campaign didn’t really react that well. Going into this campaign, the narrative on Clinton was that she was organized, prepared, and meticulous -- everything Bill wasn’t. But her campaign right now isn’t reflecting that.
*** How about Obama and McCain? Sticking with this topic, how is Obama going to handle the first time he gets attacked relentlessly for weeks at a time, which is an inevitable thing for any president? Outside the build-up to South Carolina, he hasn't been tested on this front yet in the campaign. Should this scare voters -- that they don't how Obama will react in a crisis? And then there's McCain. Does the fact that this guy stared political death in the eye mean nothing will faze him as president? That unpopularity (i.e., the war in Iraq) won't bother him to the point that he might not be tuned into the electorate? Of course, as has been asked before , does the best campaigner necessarily make the best president?
*** Are we understanding John Lewis? The New York Times is front-paging that Rep. John Lewis, who has endorsed Clinton, will cast his superdelegate vote for Obama, since his congressional district overwhelmingly voted for the Illinois senator. However, Lewis’ office is adamant that Lewis isn’t endorsing Obama. So is that the distinction? That he isn’t changing his endorsement, but will cast his superdelegate vote for Obama? Pardon us if we’re a bit confused… And Georgia Rep. David Scott -- another Clinton backer -- has apparently endorsed Obama. Not counting Lewis (because the situation is confusing), Obama has gained 12 superdelegates since February 5, while Clinton has lost a net of three.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on waivering superdelegates and the latest presidential hopefuls poll. Better late than never, we guess : In one of the most bizarre press conferences we’ve seen in months, the New Mexico Democratic Party finally declared Clinton the winner of that February 5 contest, which will most likely result in Clinton picking up an extra pledged delegate. It’s certainly welcome news for Clinton, but would it have more resonance if the race had been decided before the past eight contests? From our count, Obama has won 22 states (including DC), while Clinton has won 11.
*** Delegate update : The official NBC News hard count of pledged delegates is Obama 1,116 and Clinton 985. Conservatively allocating the outstanding 44 pledged delegates, toss in an additional 24 for Obama and 20 for Clinton. Then adding our superdelegate count (257 for Clinton, 182 for Obama), the GRAND TOTAL is Obama 1322, Clinton 1,262.
*** A missed opportunity? Just asking: as superdelegates are starting to break Obama’s way, is Clinton making a mistake by not campaigning in Wisconsin until Saturday, just three days before the contest there? Obama has been there since Tuesday night, although he took a break from the trail yesterday. Doesn’t Clinton need to start changing the momentum right now -- not on March 4? Wisconsin has a lot of her voters in the state, older Democrats and working class Democrats; there's certainly a latte set of voters in Dane County (Madison), and the state that gives the Senate Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl probably would be comfortable with Obama. Still, this should be a VERY closely fought primary. Yet Clinton does seem to be coming to the party late.
*** The Eyes of Texas are upon you : Looking ahead to March 4… Yesterday, Quinnipiac came out with a poll that gave us a baseline for the upcoming Ohio contest (Clinton 55%, Obama 34%). Now there’s a good Texas poll that shows Clinton up by eight points over Obama (49%-41%) and McCain up by just four points over Huckabee (45%-41%). More evidence that Texas is the better opportunity for Obama? And if the GOP electorate is as conservative as these pollsters expect it to be, will McCain face a potential embarrassment on March 4?
*** On the trail : Clinton holds a rally in Lyndhurst, OH; Huckabee was in Wisconsin and then heads to Chicago; McCain stumps in Wisconsin, stopping in Oshkosh, La Crosse, and Milwaukee; and Obama, also in Wisconsin, has rallies in Milwaukee, Oshkosh, and Green Bay. Also, Bill Clinton makes five stops in East Texas, while Michelle Obama is in Ohio.
Countdown to Wisconsin and Hawaii: 4 days
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Washington Post's Balz looks at why the Clinton campaign turned its back on caucuses. "The explanation from the Clinton camp is that at the time decisions were made about where to concentrate resources for Feb. 5, money was extremely short. Targeting and winning big states took precedence over organizing for caucuses in smaller states. In the estimation of one strategist, winning California, Massachusetts and New Jersey after Obama was closing the gap paid off. Had the campaign had more money in January, the caucus states would have gotten more attention."
In the past 10 days, if our count is correct, Clinton has actually lost superdelegate support, while Obama has picked up about a dozen new superdelegates, including two former Clinton supporters. The latest, a big one -- Rep. John Lewis . “Mr. Lewis, who carries great influence among other members of Congress, disclosed his decision in an interview in which he said that as a superdelegate he could ‘never, ever do anything to reverse the action’ of the voters of his district, who overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama.”
Lewis spokeswoman Brenda Jones told NBC News that the congressman is NOT changing his endorsement of Clinton. But it appears that he will his cast his superdelegate vote for Obama.
“Rep. David Scott's defection and Rep. John Lewis' remarks highlight one of the challenges confronting Clinton in a campaign that pits a black man against a woman for a nomination that historically has been the exclusive property of white men. "You've got to represent the wishes of your constituency," Scott said in an interview with the AP Wednesday in the Capitol. "My proper position would be to vote the wishes of my constituents." “The third-term lawmaker represents a district that gave more than 80 percent of its vote to Obama in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary. Lewis, whose Atlanta-area district voted 3-to-1 for Obama, said he is not ready to abandon his backing for the former first lady. But several associates said the nationally known civil rights figure has become increasingly torn about his early endorsement of Clinton.”
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal's Calmes notes that delegates may matter less than perception on March 4. Clinton's "elevation of Ohio and Texas to must-win status may well turn out to be a game-changer for the Democratic race. Instead of a long fight for delegates up to the August convention, which all sides had come to expect after no candidate scored an early knockout, their rivalry may be decided much as nominations have been in past years' contests -- based on perceptions: If Sen. Clinton doesn't win both states, she will be widely perceived to have lost, no matter that neither candidate yet has the needed 2,025 delegates."
Clinton, campaigning in Ohio yesterday, refused to call Ohio a must-win state. (And, by the way, we also find out that Obama's got an anti-NAFTA mailer hitting Clinton in Ohio.) “‘I really don’t think about it like that,’ Clinton told The Dispatch following a 35-minute speech to 2,600 in Ohio State University’s French Field House. ‘I think about doing the very best I can. I’ve got a good campaign here. I’ve got wonderful, broad support across the state and we’re just going to work like crazy to get as many votes as we possibly can and hopefully we’ll do well.’”
“Sharpening her contrasts with Obama, Clinton accused him of misleading Ohio Democrats with a direct-mail piece that misrepresented her position on the North American Free Trade Agreement, signed into law by her husband, former President Bill Clinton. ‘He’s running a campaign where he is obviously taking shots at me,’ Clinton said. ‘He’s got some mailer I’ve heard about here in Ohio, going after me on NAFTA. I wasn’t in the Senate, I didn’t vote on NAFTA. I’ve obviously got a record where I’ve taken on the trade issues time and time again. So we’re going to be drawing comparisons and contrasts.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON : The New York Times editorial page criticizes both Clinton and McCain for their lack of transparency when it comes to releasing their personal finances.
Peggy Noonan on Clinton: “Her whole life right now is a reverse Sally Field. She's looking out at an audience of colleagues and saying, ‘You don't like me, you really don't like me!’”
The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes has an oddly supportive column of Clinton. "Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, has been ridiculed for his rosy analysis of her campaign. But
More Barnes: "[T]here's a growing consensus among both Republican and Democratic strategists that Obama would be the stronger general election candidate. He may be more liberal than Clinton, but by almost every other yardstick he's a more appealing candidate. Nevertheless, many Republicans are rooting for him to knock off Clinton. If that makes it more difficult to keep the White House, so be it. Being spared another President Clinton is reward enough. For now."
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN : The Boston Globe : “Romney yesterday endorsed John McCain, his onetime bitter rival, all but assuring the Arizona senator will have the delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination.” New York Times looks at Rush Limbaugh's role in the campaign. “‘It’s entirely possible I will go the distance without saying I support a candidate,’ he said, still sweating from his three-hour performance, his blue-and-white striped dress shirt untucked and draped over dark dress slacks. The effect of Mr. Limbaugh’s resistance could be substantial, serving, at the least, to reinforce doubts among other conservatives about Mr. McCain, who would seem to need the party’s conservative base to turn out in force in November.”
“Asked what Mr. McCain might do to change his mind, Mr. Limbaugh said: ‘I don’t think there’s anything he could do. If he did do it, he would be accused of selling out.’ Then, in a familiar baritone as resonant as it is on the air, he added, ‘If I were to endorse McCain based on the current circumstances, I’d be looked at as a party hack.’”
“To the extent Mr. Limbaugh offered Mr. McCain any consolation, it was this: ‘What I can tell you I’m sure of is, I’m not going to be endorsing Obama or Hillary — unless it’s a joke to make a point.”
The Washington Post examines the two Democrats' economic visions and finds they have similar views. "Hillary Rodham Clinton slammed Barack Obama during an appearance at a General Motors plant here on Thursday for what she charged was a lack of a record of achievement on the economy. But as both Democratic presidential candidates announced comprehensive economic plans this week, they advocated similar visions for what has become the single biggest issue for voters in the 2008 campaign."
Also: "Despite the similarities, Clinton, eager to generate positive news about her campaign, went on the offensive during her tour of an automotive plant. She sharpened her line of attack against Obama and what she argues is his lack of substance. ‘Over the years, you've heard plenty of promises from plenty of people in plenty of speeches,’ Clinton told a group of factory workers. ‘Speeches don't put food on the table. Speeches don't fill up your tank. Speeches don't fill your prescriptions.’”
“She continued: ‘That's the difference between me and my Democratic opponent. My opponent makes speeches. I offer solutions.’”
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton has won the New Mexico caucuses 48.8% to 47.7% over Obama , per the New Mexico Democratic Party.
Here's the vote total:
Here's a delegate count update...
Official NBC News Hard Count (as of 2 p.m. Feb. 14)DEMOCRATS
NOTE: There are 44 still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN, DC.
SUPER DELEGATES
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
Since Feb. 5, superdelegate endorsements are 11-2 Obama over Clinton. (Clinton has also lost two delegates since then -- one today switched to Obama and Tom Lantos passed away.)
GRAND TOTAL:
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro reported on Clinton's ad in Wisconsin, challenging Obama to debate her there. Today, Obama is going up with a response ad.
"After 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates?" an announcer says. "It's the same old politics, of phony charges and false attacks."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Language to watch for during Romney's endorsement is if he says he is "releasing" his delegates "to McCain." That, or some variation, may be enough in some states where he won BOUND delegates.
Caucus states' rules are less restrictive and several of these states' delegates are completely unbound and may be able to go to whomever they so choose.
Here are the primary state delegates Romney has won: Ark. (1), Calif. (6), Ga. (3), Ill. (3), Mass. (22), Mich. (23), N.H. (4), Tenn. (8) and Utah (36).
Caucus state delegates won: Alaska (12), Colo. (43), Iowa (7), Maine (18), Minn. (38), Mont. (25), Nev. (17), N.D. (8), Wyo. (8).
Of these, all of the primary delegates are pledged. But, of the caucuses, the following are not bound: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada and Wyoming.
*** UPDATE ***
*** UPDATE 2 ***
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton wished the press a Happy Valentine's Day and handed out chocolates on the plane before taking off to a stop in Dayton, OH Thursday.
"Happy Valentine's Day," she said. "I apologize to all of you who are not spending Valentine's Day with your significant others."Bill and talked to him this morning and said they had spent almost every Valentine's Day together.
She then surprised everyone, by speaking with the girlfriends of the CBS embed Fernando Suarez and the Politico's Ken Vogel -- after asking the reporters to call the women on their cell phones.
Before Super Tuesday on a flight from Little Rock, the senator served peach cobbler to reporters.
From NBC's Mark Murray Mitt Romney will endorse McCain today.
The endorsement, per a Romney source, will occur at Romney's headquarters in Boston around 3:30 pm ET and 4:00 pm ET. And McCain, who has been campaigning in nearby Rhode Island, will be in attendance.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Announcer: For every soldier who serves so bravely over there but is ignored over here, she hears you. For every National Guard and Reservist who leaves their family behind, she hears you. That's why Hillary Clinton reached across the aisle, to expand access to health care for the National Guard, and is pushing to protect the bonuses of wounded soldiers. She'll never stop fighting for those who fight for us and give voice to those who have none. Hillary Clinton: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
"This really is a choice between the excitement of the new and a lifetime of empowerment of other people," Bill Clinton told a crowd of about 300 at a morning rally here. "This really is a choice between the inspiration of speeches and the profound inspiration of solutions."
The former president also reiterated his wife's assertion that she is "in the solutions business" and said that her supporters are those who take threats to America's domestic and foreign policies seriously. The choice between Democratic candidates "depends on how serious you think these economic problems are, and how serious you think these international problems are," he added.
Clinton made his remarks as his wife's campaign retools after losses in primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington DC Tuesday. In light of those defeats, the campaign's surrogates are lobbying hard to allow delegates won in penalized state Florida to count towards the final score leading into the convention -- even though the campaign didn't start supporting such a move until right before the South Carolina primary, a contest Hillary Clinton lost decisively. Today, Bill Clinton made the case that "the Republicans set the date" in Florida and that "we had nothing to do with it." He also relished the chance to plug his wife's California win, saying that she scored a big delegate net there despite her opponent having "all the celebrities and all the glitz."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Republicans are outraged. Democrats are putting forward a resolution holding White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and former White House Counsel Harriet Miers in contempt of Congress. House GOP rank-and-file are planning a dramatic walk out when the vote is called.
Democrats are affronted. Right in the middle of the Statuary Hall service for the late Tom Lantos , a Republican went to the floor -- just steps from the solemn proceedings -- and called a procedural vote, apparently out of pique.
The full House will vote on the contempt resolution. It is likely to pass. The resolution directs the speaker to refer the case to the Department of Justice. DoJ would then have to decide for itself whether to pursue the case.
The vote is expected at around 1 p.m.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Chelsea Clinton hopes her mother returns to the White House. She just thinks she's too old to live with her parents again.
"Sometimes people ask me if I want to move back to my old room," Chelsea playfully told an audience at Sinclair Community College in Dayton yesterday. "One, I don't see past March 4th. I don't take anything for granted. … And two, I'm 27. I love my parents a lot. But I don't want to move back in with them."
Chelsea had been asked about the challenges of once again being involved in the presidential campaign of one of her parents. Earlier, she had mentioned that she did have a private life working and living in New York. "At least did until about five weeks ago," she said. "Yet I do believe this is the most important election of my lifetime. And I believe so strongly in my mom. Not only is there anyone that I love and respect more, but I've seen her work on these issues my whole life, and that's why I'm here."
Rarely, if ever, does she mention Obama's name, instead focusing almost exclusively on her mother's record. Countless times, she has begun a sentence with, "I'm so proud that my mom …," before wonkishly detailing something her mother has done as senator, First Lady or in private life. When any of her comments have been met with a hint of applause, she would stop and prod the crowd: "Yeah, you can applaud for that."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign announced Christine "Roz" Samuels, a DNC member and superdelegate from New Jersey, switched her support from Clinton to Obama. NBC News can confirm that Samuels had been supporting Clinton.
This also changes the superdelegate count more so than just a usual pick up because, in baseball terms, it helps in both the win and loss columns.
The NBC News Political Unit superdelegate count now stands at Clinton 260, Obama 181. This brings Obama's post-Feb. 5 superdelegate endorsements to 11-2 over Clinton. (And Clinton's lost two, including Samuels and Tom Lantos , who passed away.) Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
The Obama campaign also announced the endorsement of former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee , of Rhode Island. Chafee switched his party affiliation to independent after losing his seat to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse , who is supporting Hillary Clinton. Rhode Island holds its primary March 4.
Note: Erin McPike covered Mitt Romney for NBC News and National Journal, and below are some of her observations after covering his campaign. First Read ran a similar dispatch from our Edwards embed, Tricia Miller, after he pulled out of the race.
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Mitt Romney and his wife, Ann , went to his campaign headquarters in Boston for meetings the day after Super Tuesday, he drove the two of them –- alone. For a couple that’s spent the bulk of their time during the last year riding in motorcades and boarding chartered planes, it was a telltale sign that the whirlwind run was coming to an end.
Romney flew down to Washington on February 7 on a routine morning US Airways flight at 8:00 am with his wife, strategists Cindy Gillespie and Ron Kaufman, several other staffers and -- as luck would have it -- the AP reporter, NBC producer, and NBC/National Journal embed (yours truly) assigned to cover him.
Seated in the 12th row of the aircraft, one row behind me, Romney worked on something quietly and stopped only a few times -- one of which was to ask Ann and those around him how to spell “propitious.” Though he knew he would be calling off his presidential bid in a few hours at the conservative confab, CPAC, he appeared to be in good spirits.
Just one day earlier, the Romney campaign spent the day making the case that it would go forward. That seemed like a fantasy and a heady approach for a businessman who built part of his message around his background as a data-driven number-cruncher, because more and more analyses of the GOP primary started showing it would be next to impossible for Romney to catch McCain in the delegate hunt.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Hillary’s tough press day: After Clinton’s losses on Tuesday, and after going 0-8 since February 5, you just knew that the tough press reports were coming. And that’s certainly true today, even on this Valentine’s Day. In addition to its front-page piece on how the pledged delegate math is difficult for Clinton, the New York Times writes that the Clinton campaign essentially had no plan after February 5. “The Texas and Ohio presidential primaries, on March 4, have become must-win contests for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, her advisers say. So why is she just opening campaign field offices across those states? The primary in Pennsylvania, on April 22, is also a crucial battleground. So why is her campaign telling its most prominent supporter there, Gov. Edward G. Rendell, that there is not enough money now for his proposed piece of direct mail to voters?” Terry McAuliffe was on TODAY and Morning Joe, arguing that Super Tuesday was a victory for the Clinton campaign. While Clinton and Obama split delegates and states on that day, doesn’t the notion that the Clintons really didn’t have a game plan after February 5 mean that Obama emerged as the true Super Tuesday winner?
*** Looking at Ohio and Pennsylvania: But these Quinnipiac polls might brighten the Clinton camp’s day. They show her leading Obama in Ohio, 55%-34%, and Pennsylvania, 52%-36%. What’s more, unlike past national polls, Clinton performs slightly better against McCain than Obama does. In Ohio, it’s McCain 44%, Clinton 43% versus McCain 44%, Obama 40%. And in Pennsylvania, it’s Clinton 46%, McCain 40% versus Obama 42%, McCain 41%. The problem for Clinton, however, is the expectations game. With those 20-point leads over Obama, she is now the overwhelming favorite in those states. But in this rapidly moving race, those contests (on March 4 and April 22, respectively) might seem like an eternity away, giving Obama plenty time to catch up. And, of course, we’re eager to see some baseline polls in Texas. As we’ve said before, Obama might have a better chance in the Lone Star State than he has in the Buckeye State…
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on new polls showing Hillary Clinton with big leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Is the shake up done? Well, the tidbit of the day has to be this one from the Wall Street Journal : "But the campaign has something of a shellshocked feel, as staffers privately chew over a blowup last week where internal frictions flared into the open. Clinton campaign operatives say it happened as top Clinton advisers gathered in Arlington, Va., campaign headquarters to preview a TV commercial. ‘Your ad doesn't work,’ strategist Mark Penn yelled at ad-maker Mandy Grunwald. ‘The execution is all wrong,’ he said, according to the operatives. ‘Oh, it's always the ad, never the message,’ Ms. Grunwald fired back, say the operatives. The clash got so heated that political director Guy Cecil left the room, saying, ‘I'm out of here.’”
*** The Huckster: When NBC's John Boxley first alerted us to Huckabee's for-pay speech in the Cayman Islands this Saturday, we had to double check that he wasn't joking. But it’s true… “I'm not independently wealthy. I wish I was,” Huckabee said, per the Washington Post . “I have to make a living. I do that through my writing and speaking." But imagine if any other presidential candidate -- no matter their income -- was giving paid speeches in the middle of this campaign (and in the Caymans to boot!). Many continue to speculate that Huck is running to be McCain’s veep, but does something like this pretty much rule that out? Isn't it becoming clearer that Huckabee's sticking around this race simply to raise his profile for speaking gigs? Is this campaign nothing but a ploy to make money?
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Ohio, where she campaigns in Youngstown and then holds a rally with Gov. Ted Strickland and John Glenn at the field house at Ohio State University in Columbus; Huckabee makes four stops in Wisconsin; McCain is in Vermont and Rhode Island (both March 4 states); and Obama doesn’t have any public events. Also, Bill Clinton stumps across Wisconsin, while Chelsea stumps in Cleveland and Akron, OH.
Countdown to Wisconsin and Hawaii: 5 days
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Channeling yesterday’s First Read, the New York Times’ Nagourney notes that Obama has taken a solid lead among pledged delegates, and that it will be difficult for Clinton to catch up. "With every delegate precious, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers also made it clear that they were prepared to take a number of potentially incendiary steps to build up Mrs. Clinton’s count. Top among these, her aides said, is pressing for Democrats to seat the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan, who held their primaries in January in defiance of Democratic Party rules."
More: "Clinton’s advisers acknowledged that it would be difficult for her to catch up in the race for pledged delegates even if she succeeded in winning Ohio and Texas in three weeks and Pennsylvania in April. They said the Democratic Party’s rules, which award delegates relatively evenly among the candidates based on the proportion of the vote they receive, would require her to win by huge margins in those states to match Mr. Obama in delegates won through voting."
As for superdelegates: "Clinton’s aides said the delegates should make their decision based on who they thought would be the stronger candidate and president. Mr. Obama argues that they should follow the will of the Democratic Party as expressed in the primary and caucuses -- meaning the candidate with the most delegates from the voting."
Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum looks at the delegate math and wonders if Clinton figures out how to win the Dem nod, if it will be a hallow victory. "It would mean that Clinton’s only hope of winning would be some kind of backroom deal in which she persuaded super-delegates, the party elders and leaders who need not take a firm stand until the first ballot at the convention in Denver, that Obama simply lacks what it takes, even if he has won more votes and delegates in the state-by-state count. It would be akin to winning the presidency in the Electoral College after losing the popular vote. We’ve tried that, and it doesn’t work out so well.”
“Winning the presidency by a whisker is not a recipe for success. Bill Clinton’s own ability to do the job was often limited by the simple fact that he never won a majority of the popular vote. So now it is Hillary Clinton who must still believe in a place called Hope. It was terribly dangerous for her and her campaign to all but make fun of hope, that innate human impulse that has fueled Obama’s whole campaign. ‘Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul,’ Emily Dickinson wrote. It’s what makes people get up in the morning. Hope floats. It turns out that hope votes, too."
Check out the superdelegates primer by MSNBC.com’s Tom Curry .
Check out how Obama could benefit in how delegates are allocated in Texas. From the New York Times’ Nagourney : "Clinton faces another problem there in the form of that state’s unusual delegation allocation rules. Delegates are allocated to state senatorial districts based on Democratic voter turn-out in the last election. Bruce Buchanan, a professor of political science at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that in the last election, turnout was low in predominantly Hispanic districts and unusually high in urban African-American districts."
CLINTON: So how did Clinton find herself in this predicament? The New York Times attempts to answer that question: "She and her team showered so much money, attention and other resources on Iowa, New Hampshire and some of the 22-state nominating contests on Feb. 5 that they have been caught flat-footed -- or worse -- in the critical contests that followed, her political advisers said." More: "She also made a strategic decision to skip several small states holding caucuses, states where Mr. Obama scored big victories, accumulating delegates and, possibly, momentum. Her heavy spending and relatively modest fund-raising in January compounded the problems, leaving the campaign ill-equipped to plan after Feb. 5, advisers and donors say."
And: "Guy Cecil, Mrs. Clinton’s field director, told reporters on Wednesday that Mrs. Clinton would not be outmatched again, committing to opening offices and dispatching staff not only to Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but also other battlegrounds to come, like Kentucky, Mississippi and even Puerto Rico, which holds the final contest on June 7. ‘We are recommitting and redoubling our efforts to not only have the best candidate in the race, but also have the most effective and largest grass-roots effort in the states going forward,’ Mr. Cecil said.”
On the message front, the Washington Post writes: "Clinton's first step in trying to reverse Obama's momentum came early yesterday with a release of a new ad criticizing her rival for refusing to debate in Wisconsin before next Tuesday's primary. But while that suggested Clinton may get tougher with Obama, her initial moves were tentative. Speaking at a rally in McAllen, Tex., yesterday morning, she said: ‘I am in the solutions business. My opponent is in the promises business. I think we need answers, not questions.’”
“Later, in Robstown, Tex., she addressed the issue of change that has been at the heart of Obama's message. ‘There's a lot of talk in this campaign about what kind of change we're going to have,’ she said. ‘Well, let me just say change is going to happen whether we want it or not. Change is part of life. Change is a constant. The question is who can master and direct change so it actually results in progress for America.’”
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The Los Angeles Times reports, "An attorney for clergyman Wiley S. Drake confirmed Wednesday that the Internal Revenue Service was investigating the pastor's endorsement of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's presidential bid, written on church letterhead and announced during a church-affiliated Internet radio show. ‘Pastors and churches have 1st Amendment rights just like everybody else,’ said Erik Stanley, an attorney for the Alliance Defense Fund. ‘Wiley Drake has the same right to make a personal endorsement as anybody.’”
“The inquiry into the Buena Park pastor's actions comes six months after Americans United for Separation of Church and State urged the IRS to investigate the nonprofit status of Drake's church because of the endorsement. Stanley said the IRS sent Drake a letter of inquiry Feb. 5."
Another day with Huckabee in the race… "Of course I'd like for him to withdraw today," McCain told reporters in Washington, D.C., yesterday. "It'd be much easier." “But, he said, it's up to Huckabee to make that decision.” stumped in Wisconsin yesterday. "He never named the Arizona senator, instead referring only to ‘three U.S. senators’ from a Washington culture that has turned its back on the country on a host of issues. He hawked his sweeping tax plan, calling for energy independence within a decade and beefing up the military. His most emphatic comments were reserved for the abortion issue, and they drew the night's biggest ovation."
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From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones MCALLEN, Texas, Feb. 13 -- Hillary Clinton congratulated rival Obama on his primary wins, but said she was well-positioned in this race and that the back-and-forth fight for delegates had always been expected.CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
John McCain received the endorsement of the top members of the House Republican Conference after the Washington Post reported this morning that he might get a cold shoulder. Standing with GOP House leaders John Boehner , Roy Blunt , and Adam Putnam , McCain said that he met with the group this morning and agreed that there was a lot of work to be done towards uniting the party.
McCain also addressed Huckabee's continued presence in the GOP primary race. Although he had previously admitted that Huckabee helped keep Republicans in the news while they are up against a very heated Democratic contest, this morning McCain admitted that life would be easier if he was running uncontested.
"I don't pretend that I wouldn't like Gov. Huckabee not in the race," McCain said, adding that even though he respects his opponent's right to keep campaigning, "of course, I'd like for him to withdraw today, I mean it would be much easier."
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From NBC's Mark Murray
At a lunch meeting with dozens of Washington reporters today, McCain manager Rick Davis said the campaign isn't looking ahead to the general election just yet. But that didn't stop the reporters from peppering him with questions about how the Arizona senator might match up against Obama and -- to a lesser extent -- Clinton , especially considering the excitement surrounding their candidacies.
Davis noted that the crowds Obama has attracted so far this primary season is a phenomenon he hasn't seen in all of his years in politics, and he argued that it's important for McCain to begin matching that level of enthusiasm. "We've got to get the Republican Party excited about this candidacy," he said. "We have to show them there is a chance to succeed."
Yet Davis also wasn't sure if the excitement surrounding Obama necessarily equals success in November. "How that translates into the general election, I don't know." Davis did tout public polls that have shown McCain -- even during his campaign's darkest days -- as being competitive with Obama and Clinton.
Asked how the 71-year-old McCain would fare in what seems to be a "change" election, Davis replied that McCain has always stood for change. "If you look at John's record ... no one has been a bigger catalyst for change," he said. "He is not stay as you go. He is not status quo. He is the greatest change agent in our party."
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton campaign is not about to give up anything without a fight.
Strategists said in a conference call with reporters the campaign will go after delegates wherever they can be found -- including in Michigan and Florida. They also said Clinton will likely be within 25 delegates of Obama after voting on March 4, including superdelegates, and they dismissed most states which Obama has won.
“Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois?” Chief Strategist Mark Penn said. “That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
Howard Wolfson, communications director, pointed out, “We do better the more voters vote. The largest turnout primaries, by in large, are the ones that have favored us. …The presidential election is not a caucus; it’s an election for the most people to get out and vote.”
But the campaign seems to be shifting strategy and employing a method Obama capitalized on Feb. 5. In addition to focusing on the large states -- something Cecil admitted had been their focus -- they are “opening offices” and “hiring staff” in Wyoming, Montana and even Puerto Rico to try to get every delegate possible in “congressional districts where we can be successful.”
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton is up with a new TV ad in Wisconsin -- this one questioning why Obama has not agreed to debate her in Wisconsin.
"Maybe he'd prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions," an announcer says in the ad. "Like why Hillary Clinton has the only health care plan that covers every American, and the only economic plan that freezes foreclosures."
Somewhere, John Spencer -- Clinton's 2006 Senate opponent -- is still asking for more debates.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Huckabee camp and the candidate will continue to "fight hard" at least through the March 4 Texas primary, a senior campaign aide said.McCain from hitting the magic number of 1,191 delegates and force a floor fight at the national convention. They also argue that the contest motivates the conservative base and keeps the Republican race from being completely overshadowed by Obama -Clinton .NBC's Mark Murray adds the McCain campaign has just released a memo arguing that it's mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the GOP nomination. While the campaign is correct that the number of delegates Huckabee has already picked up, plus the number of pledged delegates still remaining, won't get Huck to the magic number of 1,191 -- Huckabee could still conceivably get some of Romney's delegates, as well as the unpledged ones.
So while it seems like it's virtually impossible for Huckabee to win the GOP nod, it's not mathematically impossible -- yet.
Here's the full memo:
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The statistical front-runner : No matter how one slices the election results from last night, there's no denying that Obama is the statistical front-runner. He's got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here's our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Barack Obama taking a clear lead in the Democratic delegate count. Staying on the statistical front : Check out these cumulative vote totals for primaries and caucuses to date:With Florida
With Florida and Michigan
*** Follow the leader : So no matter how you slice the total popular vote, Obama is the leader. He's at 50% in states that have awarded delegates; he's at 49% and leads Clinton by 3 points in states where both their names were on the ballot, and his lead is big enough that he leads even when you factor in Michigan where Obama's name wasn't on the ballot. Why does this popular vote total matter? Because it's yet another important talking point when wooing superdelegates. How many supers will be comfortable voting against the candidate who's leading in the pledged delegate count and the total vote count?
*** So now what? This Democratic race has two finish lines. One could be as early as March 4. An Obama victory in either of the big states would probably put the pledged delegate count out of reach for Clinton and would allow Obama to disprove the idea that he either can't win Latinos or blue-collar white Democrats. Should Clinton sweep those big March 4 states, the race goes on to the end and becomes a rhetorical fight over stats and polls. The stats being the ones we've cited above (the pledged delegate count and the national vote totals), as well as the Democratic candidates' standing against John McCain in the national polls. But one other thing to ponder: No one ever writes off a Clinton. How do we know? If Clinton were in the position Obama's in right now, how many folks would be writing Obama's obit?
*** The rhetorical front-runners : Watching all three post-Chesapeake Tuesday speeches last night, one could sense the two candidates who believed they were headed to the general election. Obama and McCain spoke back-to-back, and it was as close to a debate as two have had. Obama's speech was laced with more McCain references than any of his speeches to date. He regularly referred to "Bush-McCain" ideas. In response, McCain had some biting shots at Obama; McCain wordsmith Mark Salter, after all, knows how to take a poke at an opponent.
***
Hope vs. platitudes : Some choice McCain excerpts last night at Obama: "Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience... To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude… I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. I seek the presidency with the humility of a man who cannot forget that my country saved me." That last line was probably the most pointed. Of course, the Obama folks will point to the dramatic generational contrast that's being set up. McCain's backdrop last night? A couple of retiring and aging pols, joined by a crowd of 250. Obama's backdrop? Seventeen-thousand screaming believers of all ages, ethnicities, and backgrounds.
*** Dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge : As for McCain, he dodged a bullet in Virginia. Obama almost propelled Huckabee to an upset victory in the Old Dominion. How? Because Obama drew a bunch of independents and even a chunk of moderate Republicans, making the Virginia GOP electorate a lot more conservative than it was eight years ago. But McCain survived, and now the calendar gets a lot tougher for Huckabee. Wisconsin has similar rules as Virginia, meaning McCain could face a far more conservative electorate because of Obama's appeal to independents and Republicans, but the evangelical base in Wisconsin is not nearly as large as it is in Virginia. The numbers suggest McCain should officially secure the GOP nod on March 4.
*** Edwards watch : Did anyone else find this quote in today’s New York Times a bit interesting? "You can't make a judgment until Ohio and Texas," said Jonathan Prince, who was a senior adviser to John Edwards of North Carolina, who quit the race two weeks ago. "In this campaign, every time he has surged ahead, voters take a pause. If momentum keeps slamming into a wall, than you do have to come down to the numbers." Is this what Edwards is thinking about in an eventual endorsement?
*** Is it still 2006? Two incumbent members of Congress from Maryland -- Al Wynn (D) and Wayne Gilchrest (R) -- lost their primaries last night.
*** On the trail: Clinton is in South Texas, where she campaigns in McAllen (which, for the reporters covering her there, has the best Tex-Mex in the world), Robstown (home of famous Joe Cotton’s BBQ), and San Antonio; McCain is in DC, where he holds a media avail with GOP members of Congress and later raises money; and Obama is in Wisconsin, where he stumps in Janesville, Waukesha, and Racine.
Countdown to Hawaii and Wisconsin: 6 days
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The Washington Post says Obama “won Virginia with about 64 percent of the vote. In Maryland, where the polls were kept open an additional 90 minutes because of bad weather, he was winning with about 60 percent to Clinton's 37 percent. He was headed for an even bigger win in the District, where he was attracting about 75 percent of the vote. The lopsided wins mean Obama will emerge with a clear majority of the 168 pledged delegates at stake in the area, as well as a widening lead overall among the more than 65 percent of pledged delegates who have now been accounted for nationally. When superdelegates are added to the calculations, Obama and Clinton are still in a highly competitive race, but Obama has seized the overall lead.”New York Times : “The outcome provided [Obama] his first chance to assert that the Democratic race, which had seemed to be heading into a protracted standoff, is beginning to break in his direction. And it left Mrs. Clinton facing weeks in which she has few opportunities for the kind of victory that would alter the race in her favor after a string of defeats notable not just for their number but also their magnitude.”
The New York Times’ Nagourney lists these obstacles for Clinton. “For one thing, if this is an election where a candidate wins by virtue of being seen as winning — a definition of momentum — that would mean that voters in coming states would be influenced by the outcome of earlier races. And Mr. Obama might then be in a position to encroach on Mrs. Clinton’s firewall of Texas and Ohio. Perhaps most problematically, the delegate selection process … could now begin to work against Mrs. Clinton. Both candidates get a share of the delegates, even if one wins by a margin of 20 points. That is a reason Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama had stayed so close on delegate numbers, and why it becomes harder for her to reclaim a lead.”
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The Washington Post : Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) swept Republican primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District last night, defeating former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and adding to his vast delegate lead in the race to become his party's presidential nominee. But even as he dominated the Potomac Primary, McCain lost conservatives in Virginia, as he has across the South and parts of the Midwest -- trailing Huckabee among that group and evangelicals as he attempts to unite a fractured Republican Party behind his candidacy.”New York Times : “Mr. Huckabee got a boost from conservative and evangelical Christian voters in [Virginia], but not enough to overcome support among moderates and nonevangelical Christians for Mr. McCain, who won 50 percent of the vote. Mr. McCain also prevailed in the District of Columbia, with 68 percent of the vote, and in Maryland, where he had 55 percent of the vote with 67 percent of the precincts reporting.”
“Flashing a grin, McCain later congratulated Huckabee for his spirited run in Virginia, saying, ‘He certainly keeps things interesting, a little too interesting at times tonight, I must confess.’”
And then he said this about his Dem rival, the Los Angeles Times writes: “‘We know where either of their candidates will lead this country, and we dare not let them. They will paint a picture of the world in which America's mistakes are a greater threat to our security than the malevolent intentions of an enemy that despises us and our ideals.’ After assailing the Democratic candidates, McCain puckishly ended by swiping one of Obama's lines, declaring, ‘I am fired up and ready to go!’”
Hawaii is a de facto home state for Obama, so don't expect much of a contest there; all Clinton hopes is that her labor friends help keep Obama's margins down so she can acquire a decent delegate haul from the Aloha State. As for Wisconsin, it's not clear how seriously the Clinton campaign is taking it. The candidate herself doesn't arrive in the state until the weekend, but then she likely won't leave. Wisconsin's open primary rules -- similar to Virginia -- favor Obama, and there's a chunk of Obama's white vote in the state (highly educated and affluent folk). But there's also a good chunk of Clinton's supposed core support: blue collar, working family Democrats. If Clinton had two weeks, we'd guess she could make things interesting. But there may not be enough time for her on this one. Then again, the margins are VERY important.
Per the AP , “In a Feb. 8 letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean, NAACP chairman Julian Bond expressed "great concern at the prospect that million of voters in Michigan and Florida could ultimately have their votes completely discounted." Refusing to seat the states' delegations could remind voters of the "sordid history of racially discriminatory primaries," he said.” CLINTON : The AP’s Ron Fournier writes, “For years, Bill and Hillary Clinton treated the Democratic National Committee and party activists as extensions of their White House ambitions, pawns in a game of success and survival. She may pay a high price for their selfishness soon. Top Democrats, including some inside Hillary Clinton's campaign, say many party leaders — the so-called superdelegates — won't hesitate to ditch the former New York senator for Barack Obama if her political problems persist. Their loyalty to the first couple is built on shaky ground.”
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HUCKABEE : What’s Huckabee’s angle? “Asked about the buzz that he might run for senator from Arkansas, Huckabee quipped , ‘There's a greater chance that I would dye my hair green and get tattoos all over my body and do a rock tour with Amy Winehouse than there is that I would run for the Senate.’”MCCAIN : In an Obama-McCain match-up, there appears to be two glaring weaknesses the other hopes to exploit. McCain will want to hit Obama for his lack of experience in foreign affairs; the comparison is quite favorable to McCain. But on the economic front, Obama will try and exploit McCain's discomfort on the issue. Bloomberg News goes through McCain's economic philosophy and notes McCain is now styling himself as a tax-cutter and a spend thrift.
"On the stump, McCain seems uncomfortable with economic prescriptions, preferring to talk about the war on terror. In December, he told the Boston Globe that economics ‘is not something I've understood as well as I should.' McCain's discomfort with the issue surfaced recently when a consensus emerged in Washington for a stimulus package to avert a recession. His initial reaction was to slash spending, a measure most economists say would actually slow growth. Subsequently, McCain endorsed a stimulus plan that provides tax rebates for individuals and incentives for business. He says his campaign package of tax cuts would spur long-term growth."
McCain is starting to put together his general election finance team, signing up Mercer Reynolds of Bush 43 fame.
“U.S. Rep. Albert R. Wynn (D) conceded a short time ago after losing to Prince George's County lawyer Donna F. Edwards,” the Washington Post says. “Wynn, who had served in the 4th District for eight terms, had been targeted by an aggressive advertisement campaign, funded in part with hundreds of thousands of dollars from national labor groups and liberal organizations. The effort apparently convinced voters that Wynn had fallen out of step with his overwhelmingly Democratic district during his 15 years in Congress.”
Maryland state Sen. Andy Harris “upset [GOP] Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest,” the Baltimore Sun reports. “Branded a liberal in a district where that label amounts to a scarlet letter, Gilchrest was targeted in a withering series of negative television commercials and direct-mail fliers that jammed the mailboxes of district voters for months. Some voters stuck with him despite the attacks, but others were persuaded that he doesn’t truly represent the district.”
From NBC’s Andy Merten Huckabee , he may say that he’s doing McCain -- and the GOP -- a favor by staying in the race.
“It would really be an admission of extraordinary weakness in our party if we could not handle, within our party, having a real election,” he told reporters this evening in Little Rock, Ark. “I thought that’s the whole point of politics -- that you have elections.”
He went on to say that he’d be doing McCain no favor by stepping down now and ceding the nomination to him, drawing a mental image of the senator from Arizona sitting around waiting for up to a few more months, as the Democrats select their nominee.
“The worst thing that could happen to the Republican eventual nominee is to go months without having the sharpness of a contest," Huckabee said. "And I really feel that it’s a great disservice to the party, even a disservice to Senator McCain, should he be the nominee, if he were to suddenly have nothing to do for the next several months.”
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Here are the official NBC News allocated pledged delegate totals as of Feb. 12 at 9:30 p.m. DEMOCRATS Pledged Delegates: Estimated Super Delegates:
GRAND TOTAL: Clinton 1,203
NOTE: 180 delegates are still unallocated, including all 15 from DC, 46 from Maryland and 21 from Virginia. There are also 41 from Washington, 27 from Colorado, 10 from Georgia, 8 from Louisiana, 5 from Illinois, 4 from Alabama and one each from New Mexico, New York and Tennessee.
Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.
REPUBLICANS McCain 785
There are still 103 delegates unallocated on the GOP side, including 24 in Maryland, 20 in Louisiana, 18 in Washington state, 16 in DC, 9 in California, 6 in Georgia, 6 in Tennessee and 4 in Alabama.
NBC News declares John McCain as the projected winner in the District of Columbia's GOP primary.
As MSNBC's Keith Olbermann just noted, 49% of precincts are reporting, and there have been fewer than 2,500 votes!
NBC News declares Barack Obama and John McCain as the projected winners in Maryland's primaries.
Both wins are by significant margins.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum McCain is expected to speak in 45 minutes and his supporters are filling up a ballroom in Alexandria after braving icy roads. While waiting for the main attraction, the press' attention is stolen by two young boys from Great Falls, Va.
Jake Trautwein, 10, and Max, 8, proudly hold their signs: "I will go door to door for McCain. Thank you for serving" and "McCain is my hero! Thank you for serving."
Jake had wanted to bring a different sign tonight, but his mother vetoed it. The sign had said, "Hillay gives me nightmares." Jake's father told him it is always better to keep it positive, and Jake made the sign saying, "McCain is my hero" instead.
Their father makes it an educational experience, having them do the math each time new results are posted on the television screen. As the campaigns geared up for the Potomac Primary, Max asked his father how he could help since he is not yet old enough to vote. Although he has not yet knocked on doors for McCain, he and his brother have been following McCain with his parents' help. Both boys volunteered at the polls at 6:30 this morning, showing their support for their hero.
NBC News declares John McCain the projected winner in Virginia's GOP primary.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Henry's departure was first reported by Chris Cillizza on WashingtonPost.com .
Henry is the person who wrote the now-famous Clinton campaign memo that Clinton shouldn't compete in Iowa.
NBC News says the District of Columbia's GOP primary is now too early to call.
At this time, the poll closing time in Maryland has been extended 90 minutes by a judge due to weather conditions. NBC will not project or characterize the race until 9:30 pm ET.
NBC News declares Barack Obama the projected winner in the District of Columbia's Democratic pimary.
NBC News projects a substantial victory for Barack Obama in Virginia's Democratic primary.
NBC News declares that the Virginia Republican primary is too close to call. Based on exit polls, McCain and Huckabee are in a close race.
At 1310 North Courthouse Road, Arlington, Va.
Precinct workers in the Verizon building on North Courthouse Road separated the Arlington residents by giving Democratic voters a blue slip and Republican voters a white slip. One of the workers estimated the turnout ratio was around 10 Democrats for every three Republicans, and in our hour in the room, only one voter walked to the voting machine with a white slip. The woman said she cast her vote for McCain and exclaimed, “I wanted him in 2000 and want him again, because he is a patriot in the realm of George Washington.”
Rafael Beltran III, precinct captain, explained that “something energized these voters” because as the polls opened at 6 a.m., the line extended well over 100 feet. Thankfully for these early risers, the lobby inside the building was large enough to save them from the sub-freezing temperatures outside. The lines remained long until 11:30 a.m., before softening, but Beltran was expecting another surge from 3 p.m. until the close at 7p.m.
Sandipan Baschi, a 28 year-old consultant originally from Stony Brook, Long Island, explained the conundrum for a large number of Democrats, but in a particularly personal way. Supporters of both Clinton and Obama, and friends of Baschi, had reached out for his vote in recent weeks. One of Baschi’s friends running for local office in New York received the personal support of Clinton on the campaign trail, but Baschi was also drawn to the 56-page blueprint for America on Obama’s website. In the end, Baschi decided not to share his vote in public so as not to offend any of his close acquaintances.
Matthew McLeggon, an African-American Democrat, cast his vote for Obama due to his support for a “new kind of politics” and a “new foreign policy,” he said. He added, though, that if it came down to a general election contest between McCain and Clinton, he would cast a vote for Clinton.
The commonwealth of Virginia uses the often-criticized touch-screen machines for voting, but Beltran mentioned that he had only experienced three glitches as of 2 p.m. and all of the problems were resolved. Beltran also added that there is an extra USB card in each of the three machines in order to backup the voting tallies. -- NBC's Alex Lebowitz
CONTINUE READING FOR TWO MORE VIGNETTES FROM THE AREA
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From NBC's Ken Strickland McCain addressed his Republican Senate colleagues today in their weekly caucus luncheon. According to a senator who attended the session, McCain spoke of building party unity and increasing the congressional GOP ranks. Vice President Cheney also attended the luncheon and in his remarks congratulated McCain on his campaign thus far.
The weekly sessions are closed to the press, but afterward Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told to reporters (on camera) that McCain "got an extremely warm reception."
"We're proud of the fact that the Republican nominee for president is going to be a sitting United States senator. Sen. McCain made some gracious remarks to our members and was very warmly received. We haven't had a nominee out of our conference in quite a long time, and we're pretty excited about it."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli John Glenn (D) officially endorsed Hillary Clinton this afternoon, as the campaign signals its focus on what is now a must-win Buckeye State primary.
“I respect her, I trust her, I like her,” he said. “She’s experienced, and she’s developed as a leader. And I think she’s fully capable of being a great president, starting on Day One.”
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) said that for Ohioans who are “looking for validation” there is no person “more highly respected” than Glenn. “If I were running for president in Ohio, there is no endorsement that I would want more,” said Strickland, the state’s popular first-term Democratic governor and former member of Congress.
Each of the officials who spoke at the press conference talked about the pivotal role Ohio has often played in general elections, and now will play in the primary. Glenn called this the “most unusual election year” in his lifetime, and noted that Ohio did not try to “out-early” some of the other primary states. “I wish maybe we had,” he said. “Ohio is truly more of a microcosm of this whole nation of everything -- ethnically, and geographically, and economically.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Doyle , an Obama endorser, said in a conference call today that Obama's ability to campaign in every state in the country was a main reason for his support.
Doyle said Clinton would not be competing in Wisconsin, and criticizing her campaign for it, adding that voters there wanted to make an informed choice about the candidates, and Clinton being a no-show for the first part of this coming week deprived voters of that opportunity.
In fact, however, Clinton is running an ad, which went up today in Wisconsin and she's certain to campaign in the state. But choosing to travel to Texas and not Wisconsin immediately following the Chesapeake primaries could be telling.
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
It appears as though the Clinton television ad blitz is more centered on Texas, however. In addition to the Spanish ad Nuestra Amiga, which debuted for Feb. 5 states, the Clinton campaign has three English ads running in the state.
"Lifetime," "Obligation," and "Dignity" (the one with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cesar L. Chavez -- Cesar Chavez's grandson) will begin airing in the state at 3 p.m. today local time. All markets except San Antonio will be running "Obligation" and "Lifetime" 50-50. For now, San Antonio will remain as "Dignity" 60% and "Lifetime" 40%.
Obama is also running a Spanish-language ad in Texas in San Antonio, Harlingen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Dallas, Houston, Austin, and El Paso, per the campaign. In trying to draw commonality with Latinos, an announcer says, translated from Spanish, "Barack Obama is talking to me. He's faced many of the same challenges that we've faced in my family. His parents weren't rich, but through hard work, he earned a scholarship and found his way - graduating from Harvard Law School. And instead of accepting job offers that paid a lot of money, Obama decided to work with churches, giving a helping hand to those less fortunate in his community."
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From NBC's Doug Adams Obama and McCain were on Capitol Hill today for Senate votes. At about 12:08 pm ET, McCain came over after voting to shake hands with Obama. Ken Salazar (D) and Ben Nelson (D), and chatted for several minutes -- joined by various other senators from time to time.
At several points, Obama reached over and grasped McCain on the shoulder. When McCain left, another friendly shoulder grab.
From NBC's Mark Murray a very good piece on Patti Solis Doyle's ouster as manager of the Clinton campaign. Do read the entire article, but here is the gist:
More: "Her performance in Clinton’s past races and especially in this one reflects all the good and the bad that the alter-ego designation carries. I’ve always felt that the most revealing thing about Solis Doyle is her oft-repeated line: 'When I’m speaking, Hillary is speaking.' It is revealing both because it is true and because it conveys—and even flaunts—an arrogance that I think is the key to understanding all that has gone wrong for the Clinton campaign."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Paul has scaled back his presidential run and is focusing on his congressional primary race, Paul spokesman Jesse Benton acknowledged.
Paul is being challenged by Republican Galveston City Councilman Chris Peden in the 14th congressional district for the March 4th Republican primary, the same day as the Texas presidential primary. Paul's name will appear on the ballot for both races in that district.
Paul has raised $400,000 for the TX-14 race, Benton said. Paul cannot use his presidential funds for congressional primary, since he has not withdrawn. The campaign has about $5 million on hand for the presidential race, Benton said.
Paul's goal, Benton added, is to get a substantial delegation to convention (they estimate they'll have about 42 delegates) get a good speaking spot, and "spread the conservative message."
On the $5 million, Benton said, "We're not looking to take any with us. We're going to spend it on what donors contributed it for." Even though he said they're "looking to spend every dime on the presidential race," he acknowledged that there is certainly an "organization that has been built out of this campaign" that they will use after the presidential race, including their more than 300,000-person e-mail list.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton will make a play for Wisconsin where Obama is currently favored. The campaign announced that they are going on air today in the state with an ad focusing on health care, an issue for which she has criticized Obama.
Here's the script for "Obligation": Announcer: She fought for universal health care, long before it was popular. Got health insurance for six million kids and expanded access to health care for the National Guard. Now, she's the only candidate for President with a plan to provide health care for every American. A top economist calls Hillary's plan, "the difference between achieving universal health coverage and falling far short." If you believe health care is America's moral obligation, join her.
From NBC's John Boxley Huckabee press van taking us to airport and then to Little Rock, AR has run out of gas. We are stuck on side road.
Anybody have a AAA card?
*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Ron Allen
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Will Obama’s win streak continue? If it’s Tuesday, it’s another round of nominating contests, and today there are three: in DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Will Obama be 8-0 since Super Tuesday (counting DC and the Virgin Islands)? It's looking possible. The marquee win for Obama would be Virginia. It's a state similar to Missouri -- though while Missouri has been trending red, Virginia is trending blue, but they are currently crossing at the same area of the ideological bar graph right now. A decisive win in Virginia will be something to brag about. While not a top-10 population state, Virginia isn't small, and he needs some bigger state victories. On the Democratic side, there are a total of 168 delegates at stake in the three races (83 in Virginia, 70 in Maryland, and 15 in DC). On the GOP side, there are 113 delegates up for grabs, and 76 of them are winner-take-all (60 in Virginia and 16 in DC), and Maryland has an additional 37 delegates at stake. In DC and Maryland, polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET, and in Virginia they open at 6:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** Remember the Alamo (and Ohio, too)! As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday and as the New York Times writes today, Ohio and Texas have become must-win states for the Clinton campaign, its donors, and its superdelegates. Per Mitchell, campaign officials confirm that Clinton called supporters yesterday to reassure them that the campaign is not in trouble. Nevertheless, there is considerable nervousness within the campaign about the outlook. They are ahead in those two states, as well as Pennsylvania, but several officials now say there is no margin of error. They must win all three, she notes. Interestingly, most of the make-or-break moments this primary season have been for Clinton, not Obama. His only one was South Carolina, while she’s had New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, and now March 4. Each time, she's just hung on. But according to that now-famous Obama campaign memo -- which has been pretty conservative in its projections so far -- Clinton could still win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania yet still trail Obama in pledged delegates.
*** But what about Wisconsin? The question the Clinton folks have to focus on is whether to contest Wisconsin. Do they want Obama to go 10-0 after February 5? There's a good chunk of working-class Democrats in the state, and a historical significance to the Wisconsin primary that leads us to believe she will contest it seriously. That said, while Obama heads to campaign in Wisconsin tonight, Clinton is going to Texas. Should Obama end up 10-0, won't the national polls continue to respond to his momentum? We're already seeing him start to take the lead in some national primary surveys, and he performs better against McCain than her in every post-February 5 survey we've seen. A 10-0 record after Super Tuesday would likely add to that -- and doesn't that eventually trickle down to Ohio and Texas? By the way, when wondering which March 4 state Obama will target more, realize that there is a larger African-American population in Texas than Ohio. Just something to think about. For more, check out the 2004 exit polls.
*** Delegate update : The Official NBC News Allocated Pledged Delegate Count (as of 10:00 am yesterday): Obama 958, Clinton 904 (although there are some delegates from decided contests that have yet to be allocated). The Political Unit Superdelegate Count: Clinton 261, Obama 177. Grand Total: Clinton 1,165, Obama 1,135. Our superdelegate count reflects numbers the campaigns are claiming plus our own updates based on publicly declared endorsements. There are currently 795 superdelegates in all, and only 719 are actually known at this point; 76 others will be chosen by state parties at state conventions as late as May and June.
*** Down the ballot : Today is only the second primary day to feature congressional races on the undercard. Last week, Illinois had congressional primaries, and this week, it's Maryland. The two big races feature two incumbents fighting for their political lives. In Maryland's 4th District, Democrat Al Wynn looks to be in serious trouble in his rematch with Donna Edwards. In the state’s 1st District, meanwhile, Republican Wayne Gilchrest is trying to fend off two serious primary foes from the right. Gilchrest has been a thorn in conservative sides for years but surprisingly he looks a tad safer than Wynn. We'll see though…
*** On the trail : Clinton is in DC and then heads to El Paso, Texas, for an evening rally there (Texas holds its primary on March 4); Huckabee is in DC and Arkansas; McCain is in DC, Maryland, and holds an election night rally in Arlington, VA; and Obama is in DC and then holds a rally at the University of Wisconsin in Madison (Wisconsin holds its primary on February 19).
Countdown to Hawaii and Wisconsin: 7 days
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DEMOCRATS.
REPUBLICANS.
The Washington Post looks at the final day of campaigning. “As the closing arguments were made to voters in Virginia, Maryland and the District, election officials were predicting a heavy turnout for the first-ever ‘Potomac Primary,’ and a great deal was at stake for the two Democratic candidates. Obama was angling to sweep the three jurisdictions. For Clinton, a stronger-than-expected showing could blunt Obama's momentum in what has turned into a protracted competition for convention delegates.”
CONTINUED >>
Today’s New York Times : "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday."
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on why Hillary Clinton's campaign is expecting no new primary victories until March. On the money front: "Some donors also expressed concern about a widening money imbalance between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton: Obama fund-raisers say he is taking in roughly $1 million a day, while Clinton fund-raisers say she is taking in about half of that, mostly online. Mrs. Clinton’s aides say that the campaign was virtually broke as of the Feb. 5 primaries, but that finances have stabilized."
The New York Daily News compares Clinton's wait-‘til-March 4 strategy to Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy. "If Obama sweeps Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia today, he'll be 7-0 since Super Tuesday, when he won 13 contests to Clinton's nine. Wisconsin and Hawaii next Tuesday also look promising for him.”
Anyone else confused by the fact that the Gallup daily tracking has Clinton up, while the USA Today/Gallup has Obama up? In that USA Today version, Obama performs slightly better against McCain than Clinton does.
A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Obama leading McCain 48%-42% percent; Clinton had 46% to McCain's 45%. CLINTON : An interesting pledge from Clinton last night at the WJLA/Politico.com forum : "The senator was asked a question from a Politico.com reader in Santa Monica, Calif., who was seeking assurance that ‘no new business or personal scandal involving Bill Clinton’ could erupt if she were in the White House and give fodder to Republicans. ‘You know, I can assure this reader that that is not going to happen,’ she said. ‘You know, none of us can predict the future, no matter who we are and what we are running for, but I am very confident that that will not happen.’”
CONTINUED >>
“A longstanding alliance of convenience and admiration between John McCain and Mike Huckabee has exhibited its first fissures after Huckabee announced plans to contest McCain's weekend victory in Washington state's caucuses.” The AP : “The Washington state Republican Party released additional results late Monday from last weekend's presidential caucuses, and declared Arizona Sen. John McCain the winner once again. ‘It's clear to me that Sen. McCain was the winner of the precinct caucuses,’ state party Chairman Luke Esser said in a conference call with reporters late Monday night. ‘Now let me clarify about that that the precinct caucuses are the first step of a three-step process and it's not clear at all yet how many Washington State delegates he'll end up with.’ … With 96 percent of weekend results in, Esser said McCain had 3,191 precinct delegates (25.6 percent) to Mike Huckabee's 2,898 (23.3 percent) - a difference of just 293.”
HUCKABEE : What does he do next? The Wall Street Journal , "Looking further ahead, Mr. Huckabee could make a strong showing in Texas, as he has in many other Southern states, where his campaign is beginning to send staff. His team's rationale: Mr. Huckabee now stands to scoop up all the support from the most conservative voters in the party."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Jeb Bush endorsed McCain , saying in a statement, "John McCain is a patriot and devoted conservative leader. Like no other candidate in the field, John McCain has made tremendous sacrifices for this nation. He is beholden to no interest other than that of the public good. He is determined and steadfast in his commitment to reducing the burden of high taxes, restoring the people's trust in their government, and winning the war against radical Islamic extremists. It is with pride that I announce my endorsement of John McCain for president."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy WASHINGTON, DC -- To show DC-area voters that he isn’t taking their support for granted, John McCain brought his I’m-still-campaigning tour to Annapolis this morning for a press conference with former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).
After a weekend full of caucus losses and a quasi-endorsement from President Bush , the press had plenty of questions for the presumptive GOP nominee, and McCain did his best to prove that he is still taking the primary race seriously.
After congratulating Huckabee on his victories in Kansas and Louisiana, McCain defended the Washington GOP’s decision to call him the winner its caucus, despite allegations of voting ‘irregularities’ coming from the Huckabee campaign.
“It's pretty clear that we won [in Washington],” McCain said. “[Huckabee] certainly has the right to challenge if he chooses to. But I honestly don't know enough about the details except that I know that state parties declare elections when they have sufficient evidence as to who's won and who's lost. That's not unusual in any way.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign, the reason behind the cancellation of tonight's Obama-Edwards meeting is purely a scheduling conflict -- and that both camps are working to reschedule.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum While making a last appeal to Richmond voters to come out and support him during Virginia's primary tomorrow, Huckabee said he wanted to be the choice of "Wal-Mart Republicans."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Hillary Clinton today declined to admit any concern over the momentum her rival could pick up if he sweeps February's primaries and caucuses.
VIDEO: Sen. Hillary Clinton remarks on Obama's five-state victory over the weekend and the overall state of her presidential campaign. The senator also reiterated her belief that superdelegates should use their independent judgment in choosing whom to back.
On whether Obama's momentum could impact Ohio and Texas: "I don't think it does. I think those are independent electorates and everybody knew, you all knew what the likely outcome of these recent contests were and, you know, my husband didn't win any of these caucus states. You know, he didn't win Maine. He didn't win Colorado. He didn't win Washington. This is about making a strong case. You know, before Super Tuesday, you all were reporting the same thing about all of the momentum. It didn't turn out to be true. Let's have the election. You know, instead of talking about them and pontificating about or punditing about them. Let's let people actually vote, and I think in Texas and Ohio, I will do very, very well, and I intend to run very competitive winning campaigns there."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth and Mark Murray
A source close to Edwards confirms that the meeting has been canceled. But the source doesn’t know the reason behind it; it could be something as simple as a scheduling conflict.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger and Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee just said Paul Weyrich , a prominent conservative, called him and will endorse him.
This comes on the heels of McCain today picking up an endorsement from conservative Gary Bauer .
Huckabee told those attending a rally here that he spoke with the founder of the Heritage Foundation earlier in the day, and Weyrich said he would announce an endorsement.
"He called me first of all and initiated the conversation and indicated to me that he felt like I was the one guy that was left that was a true conservative that really believed things that mattered to a lot of conservatives and it involved everything from strong national defense to immigration to tax policy, the life question," Huckabee told reporters after the rally. "There were many different reasons, and, you know, so obviously, this is good news for me. I appreciate it."
Weyrich had endorsed Romney, who dropped out the race last week. Huckabee said he hoped the nod would be more beneficial to him.
CONTINUED >>
Here is the updated official NBC News allocated pledged delegate count on the Democratic side, factoring in the Maine results (as of 10 a.m., Feb. 11)...
DEMOCRATS 958Clinton 904Edwards 26
In Maine, Obama won 15 of 24 delegates; Clinton won 9.
*** UPDATE *** Clinton 261Obama 176Clinton 1,165Obama 1,134
Our superdelegate count reflects numbers the campaigns are claiming plus our own updates based on publicly declared endorsements. There are 796 superdelegates in all, and only 720 are actually known at this point; 76 others will be chosen by state parties at state conventions as late as May and June.
