ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Obama unsure Hillary can get his voters

Posted: Friday, February 01, 2008 12:45 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The lovey-doveyness of last night's debate may have come to an end. This morning, Obama said Clinton supporters would vote for him but the reverse would not be true. He took credit for helping to expand the playing field for Democrats by "attracting new voters and independent voters into the process in a way that Senator Clinton cannot do."
 
"I don't take all the credit for the enormous upsurge in participation in the Democratic primaries and caucuses over the last four contests," Obama said while taking questions from reporters in Los Angeles. "But I think it's fair to say nobody has done more to engage and bring people in who otherwise would not participate."
 
Obama and McCain both attract a large number of Independents, while Clinton is stronger among Democrats than Independents. Using Nevada as an example, Obama said while Clinton did well in Clark County where traditional Democrats reside, he did well in Elko, a place without traditional Democratic votes.
 
"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."
 
Obama also repeated his assertion he would be best to counter McCain on Iraq. "There's going to be a contest with John McCain, potentially, somebody who's been very clear and firm about his position on the war," he said. "If we go in there suggesting that it just was not managed well by George Bush, then Senator McCain will be able to come back and argue, that in fact we've reduced violence in the surge, we're now getting it right in his framework. I totally dispute that. I think it's easier for me to dispute given my long standing belief that it was a strategic error on the part of the Bush administration."

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

What a statement! This is the democratic party. A true democrat will vote for the party's nominee. How dare Mr. Obama start dividing the party!
As a Clinton voter let me say that I would not vote for Obama if he gets the nod. I would sooner vote for McCain. The gall of this man to assume that Hillary supporter would vote for him in the general only shows his arrogance.  I am sorry to say that the man is actually starting to believe his own campaign hype. Sorry Obama your NO JACK Kennedy no matter what Ted or Caroline say.
"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

He is just being polite.  Billary stands for everything that the "Independent" electorate hates in politicians.  There isn't a chance in Hell that Obama supporters (like myself) will vote for Billary.    I, for one, will vote for McCain before I will vote for Billary. The thought of the Billary circus returning to White House make me nauseous. I can assure you Billary supporters that there are millions out there just like me.  
HILLARY READ FROM HER NOTES ON THE BUSH CLINTON QUESTION, IVE WATCHED IT SEVERAL TIMES AND SHE DID.=ANOTHER PLANTED QUESTION=CNN CLINTON NEWS NETWORK
I'm an avid Obama supporter and I agree with this statement. The Bush administration has lied to us for the last 7 years. It is a fact that the Clintons (yes, this would be a co-presidency) are dishonest. How could I knowingly put dishonest people in back in the White House? Anybody rememeber the whole impeachment deal not to mention a number of other scandals?

I have never voted in a primary before. Obama represents a fundamental change. I truly believe he is for the people. I am very excited to see him surge in the polls.

Obama 08!!!
Don't ever forget the reason we got W was because Gore who was a shoe in to win had to distance himself from the disgrace of the Clintons and could not use Bill to help in his run.  Thanks Clinton for W and this awfull war!
Obama is clearly the candidate of the 21st century. His progressive and compassionate policy proposals, clean style of campaigning, and his honest character all support his new way of politics. He will bring a much needed credibility and hope to America.
The makeup of the Supreme Court for possibly an entire generation is at stake in this election.  I've heard that some Obama supporters say that if he's not the nominee, they might vote Republican.

Please think twice about that!  If you don't want to vote for Clinton, that's certainly your right, but for heaven's sake don't vote for the Republicans or you may very well be looking at an ultra-conservative Supreme Court for the next twenty years.  So much for Roe v. Wade and other important Democratic issues.

As a Clinton supporter, I'd be happy to support Obama should he win the nomination.  We must keep the Supreme Court balanced, and a Republican win in November will destroy that hope.  I hope Obama supporters will equally plan to support Clinton should she win the nomination.

Remember the Supreme Court this November!
I attended the Obama rally in Washington this week with Ted Kenndy'e endorsement and one had only to look at the huge crowd of enthusiastic young people to understand the whole new electorate that is drawn to the Obama campaign. These are voters who will vote for the first time in this election and they are clearly excited by the forward looking message of the Obama campaign. I do not think that they would bother to come out to vote for Hillary.

At the same time there is a second group, those old enough to be the parents of those young voters, who remember the Clinton White House years. And while they give Bill Clinton credit for the prosperity of those years, they also remember the scandals and the smut of that period. Many of them will not vote for Hillary no matter what. Indeed, at the rally there were many buttons that said "No Third Term", making clear a sentiment against another Clinton presidency.

Those who look forward will support Obama. Many of them will not ever support Hillary's bid to be president.
All very true and very good points to be made. I will certainly hesitate voting for another clinton. Actually HOPING for a Bloomberg to step in. Our Voices must be heard. My friends and family have discussed this election pretty thoroughly and one thing we all certainly have in common is that another clinton administration would be repeating history, not making it. I am all for women as president, I know we will definitely get there, just not THIS woman, not this time. We need Barack Obama, and each day that goes by, every day he makes his case more evident. BARACK OBAMA 08!!!
> "I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

that is certainly correct.  

my fellow straight-thinking Americans, unite behind this man.  let's take our country back from the incompetent blockheads that have been running the show for far too long.

not only do we have the change to elect a man that can bring together a new governing majority - not just a 50 + 1 win - but by nominating Barack, we also avoid making this election a referendum on whether the country wants Hill & Bill back in the White House.  it shouldn't be about that- but it will be if Hillary is the nominee.

we've got an RFK here, people.  let's not screw this up.

Most of us are very dissatisfied with our Congress and especially with our President. Many of us think he lied or at least distorted the available intelligence to persuade naïve Senators to authorize the invasion of Iraq.
I think we the voters are almost entirely to blame for this kind of situation.

We need to take Dr. Phil seriously when he says “THE BEST PREDICTOR OF FUTURE BEHAVIOR IS PAST BEHAVIOR.”

Take the way we view political contests. When political contenders deliberately distort the views of their opponents and make patently false charges against them, we dismiss this as part of the rough and tumble of political campaigns.

We need to scrutinize this behavior more carefully. If a man or woman lies or distorts the facts in order to gain political office, why do we think this person will reform when elected? Believe me, this person will lie and dissemble to win support for his or her objectives.

So, Boys and Girls, if you want a President who tells you the truth, do not elect one who lies or distorts the opponent’s record on the campaign trail. If you want a president who will fight for your interests as against the interests of the Health Care Companies, do not elect a president who gets large campaign contributions from the Health Care Industry.

As President Eisenhower put it “When the President of the United State speaks, it is important that the world believe him”

Obama has an outstanding point.  I know that I would vote for McCain if Hillary is the nominee.  It has to do with the fact, that I DO NOT want Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton.  enough is enough.....
Does Senator Obama really think he has a chance of winning a truly RED state like South Carolina in a general election ???
Wow what a hypocrite he is.  Last night he says we are all one party, and now he's saying that his voters won't vote for him (read: "And I'm not going to help!")  Well as a Hillary voter, I can tell you that I'd vote for McCain before I'd vote for Obama.  The man needs to stop being so full of himself.
I'm a Democrat. But, after the Clintons' performance over the past few weeks, I can honestly say that I won't ever vote for Hillary in a general election or otherwise. I used to be a Clinton fan (even during the Lewinsky scandal...well, at least I was supportive.) I never believed or understood those that hated the Clintons--until now.
She won't get my Obama vote. Though I don't like him arguing this -- his surrogates should be arguing it.
I am a Hillary supporter and there is no way I w;; vote for Obama.  I will not vote that office on the ballot if it is Obama.
I don't know where Obama gets the audacity to make that statement, unless of course he's talking about the independents who are taking over the nominationg process in The DEmocratic Party and shoving Obama's candidacy down our throats.
I for one am a Hillary supporter who will not vote for Obama.
***** ALL HILLARY SUPPORTERS WHO WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA, MAKE YOUR "VOICES" HEARD HERE! PROVE OBAMA AND FIRST READ WRONG! (AGAIN)*****                                                                                                                  
I think that Sen. Obama would have a better chance of pulling votes of republicans who are fed-up with this administration, over Hillary Clinton.  She did aurhorize the use of force after-all.
He is right.  I am an independent who leans Democrat.  (My admiration for Senator John Warner(R-VA) is boundless)  I will not vote for Hillary Clinton.  I feel her nomination is the most damaging possible outcomes for the Democratic Party and I would prefer McCain or an Indpendent over her administration.  I feel that if the Democratic party wants to shoot themselves in the head by nominating her then they prove they are too stupid to govern.
"But I think it's fair to say nobody has done more to engage and bring people in who otherwise would not participate."
 Sorry Obama but that crown goes to Bush.
true. after yesterday, im less opposed to vote for Hillary. she's done herself and the party good. talk about magic. we'll be a united party.

but Obama has a point. Do you really think hillary can get all the youth vote? really? against a potential Mccain? the war in Iraq? really? independents?

POLITICS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT TRANSITIONS OR RESTORATIONS, BUT ABOUT TRANSFORMATIONS.

OBAMA CAN TRANSFORM THE LANDSCAPE AND RESTORE A SENSE OF PURPOSE AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN OUR GOV'T. TRANSPARENCY.
"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

Ego. Hubris. Obama.

It says that either he won't campaign hard for her, or his supporters AREN'T really democrats. Does he really believe that he, THE MOST LIBERAL senator in the entire country would attract the same voters as McCain? Does he really believe that the REPUBLICANS who crossed-over to vote for him in the primaries would vote for a pro-choice, anti-Iraq in the GE?

Ego. Hubris. Obama.
Barrack is 100% correct.  I can say that I have been an Obama supporter since the beginning of this race.  He has done some incredible things.  But if Hillary became the nominee, I would switch my support to McCain.  Barrack's followers believe that change is needed.  Change has a better chance with a rogue republican than an establishment democrat.  I don't think I am the only one that feels that way.
***** ALL HILLARY SUPPORTERS WHO WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA IN THE GENERAL ELECTION, MAKE YOUR "VOICES HEARD HERE!!!!! *****
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Obama echoes the impression I've gotten around the country from people who are supporting Obama. Of the countless people I've been in contact with in the past month, I have only heard from one supporter who said they would vote for Clinton if she is the nominee EVEN if Obama is on the ticket as the VP candidate. These are all Democratic supporters who have been active in Democratic party politics and supported Bill Clinton for president.  But there is a deep aversion to the way the Clinton team approached the issue of race and now that they got the job done, they play nice and reconcile. But the damage is done and it seems Obama supporters see this as the final straw. It is very unlikely the majority will vote or fund-raise for Clinton in the fall. As a result, I do not think Clinton is electable.
That's very true.  I am currently a registered Democrat, was once a Republican, and I would not like to see the Republicans to retain control of the White House.  I am an Obama supporter, but I could not in good conscience vote for Hillary.  I would not do so even if Obama was the VP nominee, and I would even be reluctant to vote for Obama if Clinton was the VP.
Polls really don't bear this out.  I heard speculation on MSNBC from Pat that Obama may not pull in over 40%, especially when the "dirty tricks" are done to him.
This is a very real issue. Youth voters, who do have a history of being apathetic in regards to politics, will turn out in droves for Obama but will be much less enthusiastic for Clinton. The African-American vote, while still going largely for Hillary should she end up the nominee, will not turn out to the degree they would for Obama. Obama can get Independents and even some Republicans, Hillary will not. If Hillary wins the nomination the net effect will be to deflate a large portion of the Democratic electorate and galvanize the GOP, and in the end cost the Democrats votes overall in the general election.
I won't vote for Obama if McCain is the nominee, and possibly even Romney.  There are just some people who think you need more experience than Obama has, no matter how inspirational his speeches.   I never felt that Bush had a sufficient record of accomplishment and look what we have.  
Barack Obama summed it up perfectly. Now we must all move forward and focus on what needs to be done, so so that we can once again live in a country we can be proud of, with Obama as our new President. OBAMA 2008.
I think all these are very valid reasons that must be considered.  I am a life-long Democrat but I am fed up with the politics in Washington right now. I would not vote for Hillary in a general election and I know many of my closest friends have the same opinion.

It's time to end the divisiveness in this country and come together for the good of us all. Hillary seems to offer more of the same bickering partisanship that we hated so much about the Bush Administration!
It is very interesting the way you slant the stories. Northern Nevada votes republican. Romney was the only major republican on the ballot and he is a mormom.(I have nothing against the mormoms). The republicans in upstate Nevada could vote as independents and did so in the democratic caucus. Why did you think he went up to Reno to give the Reagan address.Hillary won the debate last night. Hillary will win the nomination. Hillary will win the general election and Hillary will be your president. Get over your Hillary hatred.
I, for one, am getting tired of hearing Obama brag about being "right" about Iraq in his 2002 speech.
He neglects to mention that he made his objectiion
to the Iraq invasion without a single piece of intelligence information for or against it. In
other words, he made a gut feeling statement without
facts. Further, when the war was popular, Obama
removed the text of that speech from his website.
And, in 2004, in a press conference, when asked
about his opposition to the war, he responded that
he didn't have the intelligence information or briefings that sitting Senators had and so didn't
know how he would have voted. Then, when the war
became unpopular, the speech got back on the website and he has been consistingly bragging that he's always been against the war. In short, HE IS A PHONY!
When it comes to outlining programs, he changes his
"vision" according to how it is playing. In many cases
he has picked up on Hillary's programs with very little input of his own. He claims to have worked the
inner city in Chicago to coordinate and organize the
poor and needy. Those in Chicago who actually did the
groundwork admit that Obama did some work there, but
in no way was he the leader of the pack.
Lastly, no matter what the Clintons say about Obama's
record, they are attacked as being racial. Considering the lifelong work the Clintons did in behalf of blacks, that is ridiculous. On the other hand, for some reason, when black leaders, black
columnist and black church organizations say, "we
have a black man who has a real chance at being
elected, so you must vote for him." Per the media,
apparently that is not a racial statement. Also,
the fact that 85-90% of blacks vote for Obama should
be some indication that there is racial motivation.
The media has done an abominable job in covering this
Democratic campaign. It is similar to the 2000 and
2004 campaigns when they fell in love with GW Bush because he was a nice guy to have a beer with. Forget the fact that there should be some experience qualifications before you hand the job to someone who
will have so big an effect on the entire world.
We Independents may end up with only McCain and
Obama to choose from. One wants to stay in Iraq
forever and the other hasn't the slightest idea
on what to do except "Hope" everything turns out
alright.
Does the Senator from Illinois have a wee touch of swollen head syndrome?   Talk is cheap, actions speak louder than words.  Senator Obama talks a good game, but will he savvy with his deeds?  We shall see.
I am a Clinton supporter and an idependent.  I will not vote for Obama no matter what.  I'd vote Republican.  Mine will not be a vote of hers he picks up if he receives the nomination.
He's right. I'm willing to give Obama my vote over McCain, but would never consider voting for Hillary over McCain.

I really don't understand half of the party's love affair with the Clinton's. When Bill was in office they had a working majority, two years later they lost the House and Senate, six years after that they lose the Whitehouse in a time of Peace and prosperity to a clown.

The bottom line is Obama will win in a landslide, Hillary may win a 51-49 election, but she won't get my vote and won't have a working majority.

Out with the old and in with the new.





The ticket will be Hillary/Obama
It's this kind of comment from Obama that doesn't support or promote the party's positions on the critical issues.  If he is dedicated to promoting the democratic party's position on the major issues then it is emcumbent on him or vice versa for Hilary to energize and enlist his/her supporters to vote for the party's nominee. If his statement wasn't properly put in context by Lauren Appelbaum then shame on her.
Hard to take the side of someone who's supporters do nothing but post the same blantant racist lies over and over.  I guess they know their candidate can't stand up on her own merits.

"Birds of a feather..."  Why would I want to support someone that is supported by some of the lowest form of trash in this country?
With all due respect, this is a very naive comment. Obama will not get my vote if Hillary is not the candidate. I live in Florida where the Republican dominated legislature moved up the primary date. Until the Florida primary took place, all the democratic candidates thought the delegates should be seated at the convention. Now the Obama campaign does not want my vote to count; I assume because they did not agree with it. What a uniting message. So now Obama can absolutely not count on my vote.
Amen
I personally cannot see any reason whatsoever that an Independent who previously supported Obama would not vote for Hillary Clinton should she receive the nomination. If voters are making their decisions based primarily on the issues, there is no doubt these Obama supporters would rather see Hillary Clinton over McCain enter the White House in 09 because, as far as the issues go, Hillary is almost identical to Obama while McCain differs tremendously (especially with respect to the Iraq War).  
This is one Clinton supporter who will not support Obama in a general election.  I have not and will not ever vote Republican either.  But I will stay home on election day rather than cast my vote for someone who is simply not ready to be president.
He's right. I am a life long Democrat but if my choice this fall is Billary, I will vote for McCain. What tipped it for me was the "Jesse Jackson" comment.
He does make a good point... I have heard this stated (the Obama vs. Clinton factor on votes) many times in many different forums.
Obama is closing fast.  All the polls show him surging.  For my part, I'm tired of political dynasties.  No more Bushes.  No more Clintons and their endless psychodrama.  Let's turn the page on the politics of the past -- Obama '08.
It's not just independents, it's young and disaffected voters who feel inspired to engage. HRC, like every other politician for decades before her, have not brought these people in.

And I saw the press conference. Obama was very even-handed with his point. Your lede implies mudslinging, and that wasn't the case.
Obama is on the mark here and the same would have been true had Edwards been the nominee. As an Edwards supporter, I am willing to come over to the Obama camp, but will never vote for HRC. I don't think I could bring myself to vote McCain - I probably wouldn't vote for President or perhaps a 3rd party candidate like Bloomberg.

This is a very real problem for HRC and for all of us Democrats if we make the mistake of nominating her.


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=629273

First Read e-mail alerts


Sign up for First Read alerts
The first place for key political news and analysis

Syndicate This Site

Add First Read to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google