First thoughts: Going back to Cali

Posted: Monday, February 04, 2008 9:17 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Going back to Cali: Both Bill Clinton and Mitt Romney return to California today, as it appears the biggest prize on Super Tuesday is actually living up to the hype. Since Florida, a day hasn't gone by without a Clinton campaigning in the Golden State -- it's become that important to the Clintons. The good news for the Clinton campaign is that California counts if they win by a vote or 10 points. Once again, the Obama campaign is seeing expectations get out of control for them. Two days ago, getting close to Clinton in California would have been a "victory." Now? Losing will be a disappointment to them and in the eyes of the media. Yesterday's L.A. rally featuring yet another celebrity endorsement (Maria Shriver), certainly adds to the Obama hype. By the way, how important is early voting to the Clinton camp these days in both California and Arizona? How likely is it Clinton loses Election Day voters in both states, but gets her margin of victory via the early vote? If Clinton wins the Golden State, it will be because of those folks who made up their mind weeks ago…

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the effect early voting might have on the outcome of the Golden State's election results and resulting delegates.

*** Speaking of Cali... : Romney goes back today for an unscheduled stop, as apparently the polls show it closer than the experts think. Remember, California is a Republicans-only primary, so if there ever was an electorate for Romney to target, it's this one. Plus, the state awards delegates via congressional district -- not winner-take-all -- so there are plenty of delegates to grab even if Romney loses the statewide vote to McCain, who may have too much of his vote clumped in certain areas. And then there's -- again -- the early vote issue. Remember, when California started voting in January, McCain had yet to win a primary. Romney's the only campaign that had the resources to target the early vote in January; will this preparation pay off for him tomorrow night?

*** Obama under the scope: In the last 48 hours, we’ve seen a spate of stories questioning Obama's rhetoric and record. From nukes to guns, the Illinois senator is getting some scrutiny on the issue front. It's unclear if any of this penetrates the electorate before tomorrow, but going into the post-February 5 campaign, one can see how it could be Obama under the microscope instead of the Clintons -- a change from the last two weeks. Of course, Clinton’s mandate for universal health care is getting a fair share of scrutiny as well: The RNC yesterday happily passed around an AP clip, which noted that Clinton “might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans.” By the way, how ecstatic are the Republicans that this Democratic race is likely to go on and now will get nastier? With half the country out of the way, both camps are going to be more comfortable going negative in these smaller state contests, be it Virginia on February 12 or Wisconsin a week after that. Remember, the party that settles its nomination last usually loses the general

*** Edwards watch: Meanwhile, if Edwards was going to endorse anyone in order to influence the Clinton-Obama race, that endorsement might come today. But a former Edwards spokesman tells NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller that and Edwards endorsement today would be pretty unlikely. However, it is interesting to see just how many former Edwards backers are now supporting Obama. Per Miller, Reps. GK Butterfield, Jim Oberstar, and Raul Grijalva; former NARAL head Kate Michelman; California SEIU and the Transport Workers Union; and former Edwards rural adviser Dave “Mudcat” Saunders are all now backing the Illinois senator. Yet the Clinton campaign passed a list of names of former Edwards endorsers who are now supporting Clinton. Those people include three DNC members (thus superdelegates and frankly more lucractive “gets”), and several state representatives and party activists in California, New Jersey, Tennesse, and Colorado.

*** Just asking: Is it a coincidence that as Clinton is no longer leading in general election match-ups against McCain, her lead over Obama in national polls has narrowed? Or is it the other way around? Yesterday’s Washington Post/ABC poll had McCain beating Clinton, 49%-46%, yet Obama beating McCain, 49%-46%. And according to a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, McCain leads Clinton, 45%-41%, while Obama beats McCain 45%-43%.

*** Just asking, part II: Did Mitt Romney jinx Tom Brady and the Patriots? Romney yesterday told reporters -- including NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike -- that he emailed Brady his best wishes for the Super Bowl. Will the McCain campaign use that against Romney while campaigning in Boston today? It's just the type of thing McCain would say. Should be interesting.

*** Just asking, part III: Home state love. Check out the poll differences in Illinois vs. New York (and we can't wait to see some polling on the GOP side in Massachusetts). Can Obama do better in New York than Clinton does in Illinois? And why does it matter? Delegates. If Obama can break 65-70% in key districts in Illinois, he'll get some bonus delegates, ditto with Clinton in New York. Both need to run up the score in their home states. Interestingly enough, though: Clinton is saturating the New York airwaves while Obama is only advertising in St. Louis (more for targeting Missouri than Illinois). We'll see which strategy pays off. And speaking of delegates, a quick Dem tutorial for folks watching the delegate fight: The threshold for bonus delegates depends on the number of delegates up for grabs in a particular state or district. The range is anywhere from 59% to 70%, so check your rules before playing the allocation game.

*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in New Haven, CT and Worcester, MA, holds her national town hall at 9:00 pm ET, and appears on Letterman; Huckabee is in Tennessee and Arkansas; McCain stumps in Boston and New Jersey before holding a press conference in New York City; Obama holds rallies in East Rutherford, NJ, Hartford, CT, and Boston; Paul is in North Dakota and Minnesota; and Romney hits Tennessee and Georgia before heading back to California.

Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 1 day
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Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 29 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 274 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 351 days

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Comments

Wow, what an incredible number of responses to my post last Friday (maybe the largest single topic response I have ever seen in First Read). I succeeded in getting everyone to stop and think why they are voting for either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton. I congratulate all of you for taking time to respond, and your thoughts and observations were great.

One very glaring conclusion I saw in all of your posts (and yes I read the first 500+) was a need for closure if you support Senator Obama. I could not agree more. I believe we have reached the point of closing out W’s reign, and the demonizing years of Rush Limbaugh and his ilk. The country wants to move on, and I believe Senator Obama will usher in a new phase of American politics to the benefit of all. I am 54, and I cannot remember the last time I witnessed a debate of policy issues that was scholarly or academic. I think we have been at each others throats since Reagan, and demonizing has ruled the day ever since. Senator Clinton, or any GOP candidate this year, will not provide closure to anything. We need to close out this era!!!

I am casting my vote for Senator Barack Obama.

Chuck, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:26 AM)

Rock-Paper-Scissors

Obama beats McCain; McCain beats Clinton; but due to status quo not yet broken, Clinton may beat Obama (in primaries). Not new news as McCain has been beating Clinton in polls the last 3 years...is this the choice you wish to give yourself in November?

iowan (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:32 AM)

Chuck, the OBAMA camp is not letting expectations get out of control. That is YOUR problem. You media types play this game of "expectations" and set these movable hurdles and bars, not us voters. You all are so busy "scripting" this election that you all must have writer's cramps. You are the ones who have created all of these scenarios, in hopes that one of them may play out. I have heard no predictions from Obama or his spokespeople -- and I was at his Albuquerque event -- when he meets with voters. I have not seen him "guarantee" a victory -- unlike Hillary who, in an interview with Katie Couric pre-Iowa declared emphatically "It will be me."

So let's face it, your expectations are out of control. Take two Tylenol and call me on Wednesday morning.

Jade7243 (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:34 AM)

I think Obama needs an endorsement from some unexpected quarter, like Bill Gates or former senator George Mitchell, to push him forward. Of course, the Iowa win should be his best endorsement, but California doesn't listen to Iowa.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:38 AM)

Wait a minute. There's no chance Obama is expected to win California. Most polls still show Clinton in the lead there, and she's been up 20+ points when voting started weeks ago. She's going to dominate that early voting and he'd probably have to win on election day by 5% or better to make that up.

I can't believe for a second that a close loss in CA would be "not meeting expectations" in any way. If the punditry are thinking he is in a good position there, they're either biased against him or miscalculating the situation in that state.

How could he miss on expectations? Lose Georgia, win by 15 or less in Illinois. But not by losing California!

Paul, Annapolis, MD (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:40 AM)

It will be Hillary or McCain, but I'll never vote for a man whose greatest achievement was Chicago community activist. As the ex CEO of GE said today, "He is a great speaker, but I'll never vote for him."

MH (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:42 AM)

Um, not to tell you your business, but one of the passages doesn't make much sense. You say above that the Edwards supporters who shifted to Clinton are "frankly more lucrative 'gets'" because three are superdelegates. But three of the Edwards supporters who shifted to Obama are also superdelegates -- the representatives listed. So who exactly are the three unnamed DNC members who shifted to Clinton more lucrative than?

Simon (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:42 AM)

John McCain better just stick to campaigning on ths issues and don't bring up the Pats. I wonder how many times has the Arizona Cardinals been to the Super Bowl? Or even the NFC Championship game? or at least the Division semifinals? Better just sit that one out John.

The RNC yesterday happily passed around an AP clip, which noted that Clinton “might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans.”

That would not surprise me at all. Hillary won't be giving any of her positions until IF she is elected, and by then the American taxpayer will feel pain like never before. If it is McCain and Clinton, it will be a contest of two people who just aren't up to snuff when it comes to the economy.

With people in California just loving to pay over 50% of their pay in taxes, I can see them voting for Hillary in big numbers. Whether you are rich or dirt poor, if you are not paying over 50% of your hard earned money to the state of California, you are just not doing enough.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:45 AM)

The Clinton campaign seriously miscalculated the backlash of one of the Most Dependable voting block's in the Democratic party.
Van, how about them National polls? OOPZ!
The word out this morning isn't good for Billary's campaign.Clinton resentment in D.C.(Super Delegates).Possible $$$$$ problems after tuesday!

The Fact that Hillary said she would GARNISHEE people's wages to Mandate her Health care plan.

I'm gonna ask this question of Hillary's Main message, EXPERIENCE.How does she use that against John McCain? Any Taker's?

Barack Obama for President!!!!!!!!!!

Rick,ky (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:46 AM)

After putting ALL the candidates of both parties under my personal microscope I've thoughtfully chosen to support Senator Obama. I sincerely believe he's our best choice for a better future.

JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:47 AM)

Tsk, Tsk, Tsk,.....once again MSNBC's First Read proves itself to be incapable of simply providing the news without any bias, or "spin."
"If Clinton wins the Golden State, it will be because of those folks who made up their mind weeks ago…"
And what's to say that folks who made their minds up weeks ago, won't go to the polls tomorrow and vote exactly the way they decided to, originally?
I have two words for you First Read;
YELLOW JOURNALISM
If Hillary wins in California, which she is very to, it will simply be because California Democrats want her as their candidate. Period.
As for Maria Shriver's endorsement of Obama; did it ever occur to First Read, that she is married to a very prominent Republican (Ahhhhhaaaalllld) who supports McCain, and that maybe the Republicans wants the weakest candidate to run against them in the fall. Maybe she and Ahhhnnnaallld worked this out so that her endorsement of Obama would actually help McCain in the fall.
Unless you expect us to believe that Mrs. Schwartzenager doesn't support her husband, or his agenda, and I doubt that very much.

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT, 2008!
Change is the residue of design, and design is the by-product of experience.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:47 AM)

Here's a novel idea that would really unite this country, and be unbeatable: Obama/McCain.

elsie, ct (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:49 AM)

I think the latest polls showing the Dems in a dead heat looks good for Obama. I think the polling system probably has an inherent flaw, in that they generally call home phones. Obama has a huge following among 18-25 year old voters, who exist with cell phones, and another huge segment of the population uses Caller ID to avoid picking up calls from company names they don't recognize.

I bet Obama's supporters are being hugely under-counted based upon their parents and grandparents being the ones answering the land-line phone.

Bill, Corpus Christi, Texas (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

Due to mail-in votes, Clinton will win California. The question is not whether, but by how much. If Obama keeps it within 15%, it will be a huge win since it will indicate he kept the delegate number close.

Linda, Los Angeles (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:55 AM)

First off, I'd say the polling in head to head and in the national polling is one in the same. They are a reflection of people either making up their minds or switching. And as such, in the head to head it will reflect that movement to the Obama camp.
As for playing down California. Everyone is pretty aware there is early voting and many democrats have already voted. Given that, many are not expecting Obama to win. Most are wondering if he can be close in the delegates.
For the candidates home state polls. I've noticed that Hillary's lead in NY is smaller than Obama's is in Illinois.
I live in Illinois and would not be surprised at all if he did get some districts at 65 or so percent.
He is extremely popular here and has alot of support and loyality.
I will be casting my vote for Obama tomorrow.

diane (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:57 AM)

clinton will win the nomination and choose Obama as her running mate. This guy has to pay his dues before hes going to even be vice president of anything.

j fl (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:58 AM)

There shouldn't be early voting. It makes zero sense. In California for example, people have now wasted their vote on Edwards, and can't change their vote. And polls today have Obama tied with Clinton, whereas polls two weeks ago had Clinton ahead by 20%. If 20% of the early voters changed their minds, their vote is already cast, and it's too late to change it, even though the primary date hasn't even arrived.

It will also be interesting to see how Clinton discusses the superdelegate situation. It's very interesting how she'll say that Michigan's and Florida's voters shouldn't be "disenfranchised", but disenfranchisement is clearly going to happen if a handful of ivory tower democrats choose Clinton even though Obama is winning the delegates-via-votes by the people of America. Of course, I doubt she'll bring THAT up, just like how she doesn't bring up the fact that her "pro bono work" at the Children's Defense Fund lasted less than a year, while she worked 15 years at a corporate law firm defending big business.

Ron, TX (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 9:58 AM)

Come on, Chuck. Nice try. Chris Matthews called the Joe Scarborough Show this morning and warned of this setting up by some in the Clinton camp and some in the media that if Obama doesn't now WIN CA it will be a huge disappointment. You bought into it apparently. The Obama camp has NEVER said they will win CA. They hope to get many delegates - but they have never said they expect to win the popular vote! People have been sending in absentee ballots for weeks so it is unlikely that Obama will win - but he will do very, very well in the delegate count. For you to say the media will now say it is a disappointment if Obama now does not WIN CA is ABSURD! As Chris Matthews pointed out the media did the exact same thing in 1984 with Mondale. It was set up that if he did not win GA it was all over. When he DID win GA - but lost a bunch of other states to Gary Hart, the media only played up Hart's loss in GA. BTW, you implied on MSNBC this morning that Obama was RAISING EXPECTATIONS by putting out Oprah, Maria, Caroline, Michelle, etc.! Well, isn't that just called CAMPAIGNING?? What are they supposed to do?? They want to get out as many votes as possible. But to extrapolate from that that the Obama campaign is saying because of this they will WIN CA - and that it will somehow be a HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT in the media if they lose CA, (which is what is almost what EVERY POLL shows will be the case in the popular vote) - is an "expectations trick" by the media. I'm really shocked that you would buy into it. THE STORY IS THAT OBAMA HAS MADE UP A 20 POINT DEFICIT IN THE NATIONAL POLLS IN TWO WEEKS!! AND THAT THE LONGER THIS CAMPAIGN CONTINUES, THE BETTER IT IS FOR OBAMA AS HE HAS THE "BIG MO!!"

Jane, Cary, NC (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:01 AM)

Senator Obama going to say to republicans when asked why he favors granting drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants as Obama has admitted twice in debates? About Obama's present position that undocumented workers will not be covered in his healthcare proposal, yet when he was running for the Senate he said that children of undocumented workers should get the same healthcare benefits that citizens get? when they begin to ask him about negotiating in unstructured summits with the leaders of Iran, North Korea and Cuba without preconditions? What will Senator Obama say when Senator McCain asks him why he said in 2004 that he did not know how he would have voted on the Iraq war authorization and that his view of the Iraq war was not different from President Bush's? What will Senator Obama say when Senator McCain compares Obama's votes to fully fund the Iraq War in the Senate to Obama's rhetorical opposition to that war? What is Senator Obama going to say when Senator McCain questions Obama's claim to be "the most qualified person in America to conduct the foreign policy of the United States"? What is Senator Obama going to say when Senator McCain says that Obama is not one of the most qualified members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to lead this country in today's dangerous world but instead one of the most absent? Senator Obama has not conducted a single policy hearing as chairman of the subcommittee on European Affairs of the Foreign Relations Committee?

Hank Balto MD (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:01 AM)

This is getting ridiculous. Obama people were whining and whining about having to run against both Hillary AND Bill? Well it seems to me, Hillary has much stronger competition...she has to run against Obama, his also-big-mouthed spouse, Oprah, most of the Kennedy clan....and lets not forget, JFK, MLK, RFK and even Paul Wellstone as Saturday, here in MN Obama claimed that legacy as well. I realize when you don't have much of a record of your own, you have to take attention away from that, but this is getting ridiculous. He's been so pumped up by the media, that this race has become very close. Scary, when we don't yet know who the man is.
I'll tell you people one thing...we in MN loved Paul Wellstone and Paul Wellstone was much more than talk. He backed up his every word with action and conviction. And he would NEVER have used tactics like those nasty Harry & Louise adds (that did untold damage to the idea of universal health care and left us in this horrible position we are in today) just to win. (and Obama supposedly WANTS universal health care?).
And don't forget, people Obama has mandates that could end in garnishment of wages and penalties as well...why does every article seem to forget that. I guess it could be because the man doesn't have any truly in-depth, solid plans AT ALL.
BUT HE SURE DOES TALK PERTY!

Wake up people. Only now is he truly beginning to be looked at deeply. As soon as his gun control stance and the other scams get bigger news, we could be stuck with him as a candidate. Actions speak louder than words, people. Too bad this man's actions arent backing up all that pretty, uplifting talk!

Susan, MN (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:02 AM)

Joan Baez endorsed Senator Obama today in the San Francisco Chronicle:
Editor - I have attempted throughout my life to give a voice to the voiceless, hope to the hopeless, encouragement to the discouraged, and options to the cynical and complacent. From Northern Ireland to Sarajevo to Latin America, I have sung and marched, engaged in civil disobedience, visited war zones, and broken bread with those who had little bread to break.

Through all those years, I chose not to engage in party politics. Though I was asked many times to endorse candidates at every level, I was never comfortable doing so. At this time, however, changing that posture feels like the responsible thing to do. If anyone can navigate the contaminated waters of Washington, lift up the poor, and appeal to the rich to share their wealth, it is Sen. Barack Obama. If anyone can bring light to the darkened corners of this nation and restore our positive influence in world affairs, it is Barack Obama. If anyone can begin the process of healing and bring unity to a country that has been divided for too long, it is Barack Obama. It is time to begin a new journey.

JOAN BAEZ

Menlo Park

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:05 AM)

1) The New York Times on its front page explains how Sen. Barack Obama told voters he stood up to the nuclear power industry and how he passed a bill to require reports of any radioactive leaks after hearing from his constituents. But The Times discovers, after a lengthy examination, that the bill was watered down after meeting with Exelon, the company whose plants created the issue and whose key executives are big contributors and bundlers to his campaign. Answering written questions for the NY Times, the campaign, in the words of the paper, never "directly" explains why Sen. Obama would tell voters he passed a bill that in fact was not passed and did not become law.

2) The Chicago Tribune features a similar story on a different topic. While Sen. Obama on the stump tells people about the plight of Maytag workers who lost their jobs, ("Obama's fundraising collides with his rhetoric") the Tribune documents that the union covering those workers believes they got no help from the Senator, who was again taking significant contributions and bundling from one of the company's directors and biggest investors.

3) And yesterday there was an AP story where Senator Obama told the voters of Idaho: ''And then there are people who say, 'Well, he doesn't believe in the Second Amendment,' even though I come from a state -- we've got a lot of hunters in downstate Illinois. And I have no intention of taking away folks' guns.'' But he didn't disclose to those voters, as the AP said that "he does support gun control and has a record of voting for it in the Illinois Senate. He backed limiting handgun purchases to one a month, but he made no attempts to ban them." When he originally ran for the state legislature 12 years ago, he filled out a questionnaire saying he ''supported banning the manufacture, sale and possession of handguns.'' He gave the voters of Idaho no indication whatsoever of either his record in the State Senate or his prior views on the questionnaire.

where are these posts, first read. It's about time to start treating this race fairly!

Hillary 08 (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:05 AM)

California First Lady Maria Shriver Announces Support for Barack Obama(click on video below)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62_ajoKkuHA&eurl=http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:06 AM)

By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press Writer
Sun Feb 3, 11:40 AM ET WASHINGTON - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans.

And so it begins. Do it her way, or, do it her way.

Rick, Germany (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:06 AM)

Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, has endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States...

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:07 AM)

This is not over! As we all know, things happen in California first. Romney now has the momentum and is leading in Cali. This will spread the rest of the country. Super Tuesday will not be the end. Then Romney can take McCain one on one the rest of the way. All true conservatives need to get on the bandwagon for Romney. Come on in Paul supporters, Fred Heads, Huckabee supporters and friends of Rudy. Let's take back our Republican party by voting for Romney!

John, Lake Worth, Florida (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:07 AM)

ST. PAUL – Writer and humorist Garrison Keillor today announced his endorsement of Senator Barack Obama for President.

In a letter to Senator Obama, Keillor wrote:

“I'm happy to support your candidacy, which is so full of promise for our country. Seven years of a failed presidency is a depressing thing, and the country is pressing for a change and looking for someone with clear vision who is determined to break through the rhetorical logjam and find sensible ways to move our country forward. That's you, friend.

“I can't think of a happier prospect for next January than to see you and your wife and children stepping out on the platform in front of the Capitol for the inauguration. The sight of this will bring to an end a long sour chapter in our history. It will be an enormous moment. And of course it will be exciting to have a president who can speak with grace and power to the American people. Your campaign is a great tonic for America and that's why so many young people are excited about it. I congratulate you on your awesome achievement so far and pledge my support toward victory in November.”

Keillor is best known as the host of Public Radio’s A Prairie Home Companion and is also a best-selling author and humorist.

“I’ve been entertained and inspired by Garrison Keillor’s work through the years,” Obama said. “His tales of life in Lake Wobegon tell the story of life in quintessential middle America. I’m honored to have his support and, as president, I will wake up every day thinking about how I can help make life better in places like Lake Wobegon all across the country.”

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:07 AM)

Jerry writes .... "With people in California just loving to pay over 50% of their pay in taxes, I can see them voting for Hillary in big numbers. Whether you are rich or dirt poor, if you are not paying over 50% of your hard earned money to the state of California, you are just not doing enough" another entry from an ignorant Republican from Texas who knows NOTHING about California. The great thing about this election is the death of all republicans coming from Texas who have ruined our nation. Maybe after Nov '08, we will no longer have to read anymore "meaningless" blogs from Texas Republicans .... Hasta La Vista Jerry

RGO, California (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:07 AM)

Rory Kennedy: Two fine choices, one clear decision - Obama---

Rory Kennedy, a documentary filmmaker

In my years making documentaries, I have traveled to remote regions, from small villages in South America, to townships in South Africa, to the hollows of Appalachia. Every trip, every film, I meet people who still keep photographs of my family on their walls. They cry when they meet me, simply because they were touched by my father, Robert Kennedy. In part, this is because my father supported policies and legislation that helped the disenfranchised. But it is also, and perhaps more importantly, because they felt that my father understood their pain. Senator Obama has that quality too. He has an open heart and an energizing spirit.

Recently, my mother, Ethel Kennedy, said of Obama: "I think he feels it. He feels it just like Bobby did. He has the passion in his heart. He's not selling you. It's just him."

I agree. Obama is a genuine leader. We Americans - women included - desperately need that kind of leader now. Not a president of a particular gender or a specific race, but a president with a different vision, one who inspires a sense of hope.

To elect Barack Obama is to choose a new direction, set a new course - to steer America toward a better place, better for women as well as men, better for us all.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/02/ED39UQKTS.DTL

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:09 AM)

So, Hillary, ya have'n fun yet girl? Is this the fun part? You still think you're winning?

Lou Pruce (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:12 AM)

The California results matter a lot since they give a delegate "bonus" of 11 delegates if you win the state. Moreover, MA and MO could be interesting as if Hillary wins the press locally will ask why the people who endorsed Obama could not bring the states home for him. The spin will all be about the size of the states won, how many states won, how many delegates won, and the total popular vote won. Look for Obama to have a better showing in much of this perhaps except for delegate count.

As for the media questioning Obama's record versus his speeches perhaps this is something they should have done a while ago.

Eric, NY, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:15 AM)

Health Care:

Obama: OPTIONAL. This is less likely my employment coverage will wain.

Clinton: MANDATORY and potential garnishment of wages if citizen does not pay. Likely my employment coverage will wain, if not this year, it rests on the horizon. This will be another deduction from my paycheck I JUST CANNOT AFFORD! I am suspect she has the big businesses in mind.

Marybeth, Henderson, NV (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:17 AM)

OH the spin! I am still asking what is a Barack Obama? We are dizzy from the the hype and the appearance of the saviour from out of the wild blue yonder!

HP Boston (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:18 AM)

The media - i.e. First Read - and James Carville - are setting up FALSE EXPECTATIONS on CALIFORNIA! GOOD GRIEF! NO POLL AND NO ONE IN THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN HAS SAID HE WILL WIN CA!! He has dramatically risen in the polls but there were many - almost 50% - of the ballots ALREADY CAST via the ABSENTEE BALLOT process. So everyone knows that Hillary will win the popular vote. BUT - if Obama can capture a large number of the delegates THAT should be the story! The media is shameless in trying to CREATE a story. To now say that it will be a disappointment to both Obama and the media if he loses the popular vote in CA is a trick worthy of Clinton guru Mark Penn.

Carol Johnson, Topeka, Kansas (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:18 AM)

Just a question... What has Obama ever accomplished in the Senate that is bi-partisan or non-partisan in any way? What has he ever done that unites Democrats, Independents and Republicans in solving a problem?

The answer is nothing. (Ethics reform was not bi-partisan, ask John McCain.) Talking about hope is unifying but meaningless. It is just like George W. Bush - "I'm a uniter not a divider", "humble foreign policy", "no nation building", etc. etc. Nice words, but zero results. You have to actually work with the other side in order to have an achievement.

Hillary has been effective in working with Lindsey Graham, Trent Lott, Newt Gingrich, John McCain, and other Republicans. Real work, real solutions, real results - not just words.

Chris NY, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:22 AM)

Barack Hussein Obama has no experience. He is a great speaker and has charisma, but in the end he says nothing.

Sharon Stone (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:23 AM)

Congratulations "blue collar" Giants. Great home State victory, Hillary. Now, Hillary's blue collar voters and diverse other supporters are set to bring victory to Hillary on Super Tuesday. Teddy and his clan are devastated. Oprah must address the ratings war. Congratulations Giants and your Senator Hillary on victory in Super Tuesday.

benvictor (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:24 AM)

Ah---Harry and Loise has been put into the campaign by Obama.He should have checked first how the original Harry and Loise ended up.Harry got ill went to the hospital and found out his healthcare would not pay his medical bills.Harry died and Louise was left to pay his hospital and doctor bills.She ended up losing everything including her home.Not a pretty ending but seems to be happening all over the country.Did the republicans claim Hillary would garnshee or was it Hillary?

enough of chuckie (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:24 AM)

The grassroots/country wants Obama...and the "party" wants Clinton who will prevail?

CJ (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:25 AM)

Keep being swayed by polls, people. The problem is, those polls take in account ALL Hillary's negatives and none of Obamas. People do not really know him yet, other than the hype. Once his gun control and other liberal stances along with new questions concerning his "favors" for donors comes out as it is further and further investigated(as should have been done all along) comes out, he will lose independents and those "obama republicans", plus more.
He panders and lies and misrepresents both his own record and Hillary Clinton's as well. If people believe he is truly a "different" kind of politician, they dillusional.
God help us all...

goDems (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:25 AM)

No more Repub. in the white house, we have learned our lesson. Vote Democratic. Bush damaged the Repub. but you will never hear Limbaw or Hannutty or OReilly mention one word against him! You put another Repub. in the white house and you will wind up with more BUSH,more Limbaw, more Hannutty & more OReilly.

R.amanda,all done (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:26 AM)

we would like to point out something hillary said on television sunday. hillary said, she may consider garnishing wages or some other forms of penalty if people don't pay the mandated premium for universal healthcare.

this is something we have been speaking about since the campaign began. she will not be fully honest about it, but gave a waffling answer after being pressed a third time on the subject.

with the clinton's americans must think about hillary's answers being politically correct depending on her audience. we will never know what she is truly thinking or will actually do.

she said she is for the working class, but voted for the bankruptcy bill that favored lenders and creditors.

the expectations issue is a misrepresentation on the part od msnbc and the media. for obama to be behind hillary by double digits 2 weeks ago and recently and obama closing the gap says that he has exceeded all expectations.

please don't try to set him up as failing if he doesn't win california. that is not fair to us voters.

it is sad that the early voters don't get the chance to recast their vote. at the time those votes were casted obama was an unknown quantity and voters casted their votes based upon the clinton's name recognition. we think they would vote very differently now based upon his exposure to california. anyway, go obama.

independents for truth (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:26 AM)

Romney is NOT going to win anything except the biggest EGO contest...What a buffoon...! The only reason he is running is he wants to feed his ego even more, if that is possible. He has no sense of humanity for anything except the big profit$$$. We don't need a president like that....we just had that type and look what he did to our country.

The Demoocrats will be cleaning up after the GOPer's, as usual, with a winning ticket of Hillary/Obama!

R.V. (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:28 AM)

TO: Hillary 08 (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:05 AM)

Pls click on these sites for info
KNOW THE FACTS
http://factcheck.barackobama.com/

LEARN & ISSUES
http://www.barackobama.com/index.php
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
http://www.barackobama.com/speeches/index.php
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/

KNOW THE FACTS
http://factcheck.barackobama.com/

Marbw (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:31 AM)

Zogby has Obama with significant momentum coming into Tuesady, especially in California. Yesterday alone he beat her 49%-32% and now leads her 46%-40% over all in their tracking poll. If he makes no mistakes between now and tomorrow, he just might overcome that mail-in/early vote and hold his own.

I sure hope so. Hillary hasn't said anything meaningful all campaign long. Giving general answers to specific questions and laughing/cackling alot doesn't cut it right about now.

Blaine (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:33 AM)

Chuck- Yes, Obama is now expected to win California. How can he not, with Shriver, Kennedy, and Oprah behind him?

Obama is an empty suit. 'Can give a great speech, but has no executive experience. Yet, he's expected to win in California. Hopefully, Californians will come to their senses and pick Hillary, but I don't expect that.

Dirk, Brunswick, Georgia (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:34 AM)

we are trying to understan why some people here discuss differences and issues and some continue after so long to lie, slander and insult rather than point out the reasons they support their candidate intelligently? is hate or division a part of your nature???

do you just think that if a person is not your candidate you must tear them down as republicans do democrats???

is it your nature to just be poisonus???

we are trying to understand the hate level. though we don't support hillary, we see know need to disrespect her with names, slander and lies.

why is this ugly type of politics that the clinton's and the republicans have been using since the 90's so necessary to some of you???????

why can't you be intelligent in your discussion????

independents for truth (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:34 AM)

First Read,
You are being SPUN again on California. What is wrong with you guys? Doesn't it get embarrassing after a while? Nobody in the Obama camp thinks he's going to win California; she has a MASSIVE institutional advantage here and huge leads from all the older voters that sent in absentee ballots early. Be professionals and take some pride in your work. Stop letting Mark Penn and James Carville commandeer your brain.

SW, SF, CA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:35 AM)

'...Yesterday’s Washington Post/ABC poll had McCain beating Clinton, 49%-46%, yet Obama beating McCain, 49%-46%. And according to a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, McCain leads Clinton, 45%-41%, while Obama beats McCain 45%-43%...'

Billayr will lead us to DEFEAT
Obama will WIN

This contest WON'T BE OVER on Super Tuesday
We can see the momentum heading Obama's way

A statistical tie in national polls, a statistical tie in CLAIFORNIA ! CALIFORNIA !
The Clintons practically LIVED HERE during Bill's failed Presidency.

Billary is having trouble holding California
Watch the results.... Billary will LOSE the SF Bay Area. FLAT OUT

One pundit said this week end said Obama would NEVER offer the VP slot to Clinton........ Who wants two VPs ?

Obama is gaining and the nomination may be decided in Ohio AFTER Super Tuesday

Sierra, SF (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 10:37 AM)

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