Obama camp downplaying expectations

Posted: Monday, February 04, 2008 3:03 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
With polls showing Obama making up a considerable amount of ground in key February 5 contests, there is a growing sense that he could pull off what was unthinkable just two or three weeks ago: grab more Feb. 5 delegates than Clinton. Heck, even win California.

Well, the Obama campaign just released a memo to rein in such expectations. "Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states," Obama manager David Plouffe said in the memo. "Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates."

Plouffe continues, "Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests. We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months."

That 100-delegate margin is an interesting mention. It's rare that campaigns establish benchmarks that journalists can hold them to later on, and Plouffe is vague on "a number of states'" which could mean seven or it could mean fifteen. But in providing a measure of success in terms of delegates, that's a good way to see if Obama can meet his own expectations game tomorrow night. That said, after playing with the delegate math a bit, a 100-delegate difference might be setting the bar a little too low.

The full Plouffe memo is below.

February 4, 2008
To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective

Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.

Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.

For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”

Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.

Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.

While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.

ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]

CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]

DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]

GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]

MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]

MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]

MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]

NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]

OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]

TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Please join in on the conversation. Major Town Hall meeting "tonight" 9 p.m. e.s.t. on Hallmark channel or go to hillaryclinton.com

Grace Adams, Hickory, N.C. (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:11 PM)

Now it's time to check this out. Tonight on the Hallmark channel or go to hillaryclinton.com, for the National Town Meeting. 9 p.m.-- e.s.t.

Phillip West, San Francisco, Ca. (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:15 PM)

Why is Obama gaining ground? Because he rambles incessantly about change without discussing what he proposes to change, other than to work with republicans? Because the media tells voters that he is the candidate of chage, wihtout even asking what he proposes to change? Why won't Hillary's campaign critic him for this? It is as if everyone is afraid to ask him to provide substance. Why?

MM (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:15 PM)

Hard to believe they need to play this card, when all the momentum is on their side.

Sen. Barack Obama has erased Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Democrats nationally, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll out Monday. The two are in a virtual tie, with Obama at 49 percent and Clinton at 46 percent.

The survey represents a dramatic turnaround in the race from a few months ago when Clinton had a significant edge over Obama.

With 1681 delegates up for grab, what Candidate do you believe will accumulate the most delegates on Super Tuesday?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1693

Jeff, Austin (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:15 PM)

IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING that even though an Obama upset now seems possible (and even exciting to some of us in the media) it would STILL be a HUGE upset. Even the fact that he is CLOSE to Hilary post-Feb 5th would be a HUGE achievement. COmpare it to what McCain achieved in 2000, or Bradley in 2000, or Jerry Brown in his underdog battles. Obama's success should be measured against those more analogous struggles of the up-and-comer vs. the establishment, presumptive nominee. If Obama remains close after Feb 5th, then the battle continues. IF he wins CA and/or has MORE delegates than Hilary, then she will likely have to drop out. What would be her argument to stay in? Thus, even if she holds onto CA and wins a bare majority of delegates she is STILL haning on by a thread. 2% more Obama votes in NH and she'd already be gone. My two cents...

Geoff in BRooklyn (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:17 PM)

Uh, sorry, I don't get the Grandma channel. If it ain't been said already, it's not gonna be said at 9 tonite.

With apologies to my mom, who I welcome to watch the channel. My vote, and my kids', will cancel hers plus two.

HRC needs to step aside with dignity. See Edwards, John. Also, look for his endorsement Wednesday.

iowan (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:18 PM)

HELLO! what about the absentee ballots? alot of people have been casting their votes since december!

John in la (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:19 PM)

Only the most political diehards will watch the delgate race...sad to say. Most people who watch the race tomorrow night, will watch for the checkmarks as each state is declared for one candidate or the other. The perception of the true winner will be based on media reports tomorrow night and in the days following. Headlines such as "Clinton Wins California" will have a much bigger impact than "Clinton and Obama Tie In Delegates in California". Remember Nevada? Clinton won the total vote, Obama won the delegate count. Nowhere have I heard that Obama won Nevada...but in reality he did. If the media can hold off, and reserve their comments (biased one way or the other) citing the delegate count instead of the total vote, then maybe we will know the true winner, but I'm not holding my breath.

Al, KS (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:22 PM)

"Why won't Hillary's campaign critic him for this? It is as if everyone is afraid to ask him to provide substance. Why?"

As opposed to Hillary Clinton claiming she has 35 years of experience? The woman is 60 years old. Subtract 35 and you realize her "35 years of experience" begins when she was 25 and in law school!

Sarah (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:56 PM)

Obama as the change canidate-----with Ole Ted Kennedy by his side???? Strange!!! 100 + "present" votes as a state senator, when you are elected to vote on bills....stand for something.....he was smart...no scrutiny of his record.....Simply NOT READY

Chuck Bttar (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 3:57 PM)

There is a movement in this country - its best to get on board now, but if you want to wait a few more weeks, that's cool too. This is a very important election; it's about taking back the white house and establishing a new United States of America, where party lines and state colors don't exist. Where political polarization and discouraging voter turnout are things of the past. If you'd like a candidate who can reach out to Republicans as fellow Americans, not partisan opponents, look no further than Barack Obama - a new America. Change happens, out with the old and in with the new... America that is! <--- this from a kid who grew up in the backwoods of the south with a Nascar dad.

John, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:01 PM)

Obama will win California tomorrow. Don't know about the mail-ins, but he wins tomorrow by at least 6 pts.

Blaine (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:04 PM)

It looks like Clinton wins tomorrow. She will pick up a 1000 delegates and with the previous number and the super delegates she will be within a hand full , which we will take care of that when Texas, Ohio and Pa. vote and we will take her over the mark.

gene britton (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:08 PM)

Wow, is that the sound of defeat! The Obama camp is trying to lower expectations as Hillary will be the winner tomorrow.

Tasha, Atlanta, GA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:08 PM)

I'll say it now first: even if Barack Obama pulls off a huge upset and gains MORE delegates than Hillary tomorrow, this race is far from over. It is just one gaffe or smoking gun (on either campaign's part) away from a total reversal.

Check out the blog Power to the People to talk some more.

Tom, Fairfield, CT (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:09 PM)

Hey MM and all the rest of you who say he has no plans. Go to Obama's web site and see all his detailed proposale many of which have been announced long before Clintons. Also where have you been...haven't you been listening to every debate and read every article that states that the differences in Obama's and Clinton's proposals are very close to eachother. Please do your homework before you spout your untrue generalizations!

MG, St. Louis, Mo. (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:10 PM)

Remember, it's all about November.

A vote for Hillary = a vote for McCain. If Hillary is the nominee, McCain is president. Why? She simply cannot get the Independent or Swing voters. Too much baggage, fair or not.

Obama, on the other hand, has wide, crossover appeal and can get those coveted Independent and swing voters -- which are necessary and key to a White House victory.

Vote Obama in your primary or caucus if you want something other than the same ol' Republicanism for another four years.

Think. Think November strategy. Vote Obama.

Voice of Reason (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:10 PM)

This is starting to sound more and more like the Clean Gene people of 1968, who decided to sit out, and gave us Nixon. Be careful what you wish for. Don't pretend that somehow Obama is so cloaked in virtue, that his nomination will heal all wounds and a larger, more energized party will emerge. The fight is still in Ohio and Florida. Dems already get 90 percent of the AA vote, and that still isn't enough to carry southern states.

Wm., Schererville, IN (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:19 PM)

I'm sorry; I'm reading a post by "MM" saying Obama hasn't said how he will get change - that is not true. How cynical are people these days when the word change, which means something new and/or a shift in conventional thinking, becomes something he has to prove he can do and how? Isn’t any new president change? That is why Hillary isn’t attacking him for this, because she understands that even if she isn’t elected, when Bush leaves office there will be change! How can we ignore the definition of the word and make it a political talking point? When I watched him stump the other day he mentioned several ways in which he would make change including a plan to eliminate the income tax for seniors who make a certain amount of money (I don't remember the figure so I won't pretend to), he will give students who do some form of community service a 4000 dollar tax credit every year they are enrolled, he will leave Iraq in a safe and organized way, he will create a universal healthcare plan by the end of his first term, he'd be the first black president, he'd talk with foreign leaders friendly or not, and he has said he would eliminate the Bush tax cuts for the rich. I could continue on with plenty more examples of change but I don’t think I have to. Any candidate on the democratic side and even republican side will bring forth some form of change so that argument has to fall short. If you have any questions on his issues and how he plans to address then why don’t you do some of your own research? The information is out there on how he plans to implement change AND WE WILL GET THE CHANGE WE WANT WHEN WE TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE!

Nick W. St. Louis, MO (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:20 PM)

Hey! Don't knock the Hallmark channel! I'm a 34 year old male that happens to be a closet "Little House" fan. The Hallmark Channel is the only station that I can find it on.

Honestly, I don't see this event helping her in any way. The only people that will tune in are people that are already voting for her. It doesn't have the same appeal as seeing a candidate in person. Even I would go listen to her speak if she was in my area, just out of couriousity. However, I would travel several hours to go see Obama speak.

Kevin B, PA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:22 PM)

Can I ask for a clarification on something? this quote from your post "That said, after playing with the delegate math a bit, a 100-delegate difference might be setting the bar a little too low." does this infer that you believe he is being too optomistic? or overly optomistic? I'm just confused as to the "bar being set too low".

Also, I believe Barack is our best hope for a win in November. I agree with most that say Hillary will do one unfortunate thing, unite the Republican party. Barack takes from the middle and they will have a hard time fighting him.

Ollie McMillan, Sammamish WA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:22 PM)

Obama pulling in the larger number of delegates after Super Tuesday will be a big blow for the Clinton campaign. But even if he does not, just the mere impart of the two running in this race makes for good television and for debatable conversations. More young people are tunning into the election talks. A woman and a Black man running for the highest office, and either could be the Democratic nomination is history in our life time. The question, however, is where will they rank should either of them take the nomination and run up against a McCain? I don't think either will have a major hurdle against anyone but McCain on the Republican side. Could the long-awaited upset be upset by the Republican nominee? Great possibility there?

Barbara, Elk Grove, CA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:22 PM)

I don't understand why commentators don't correct either Hillary or her campaign workers when she says she "won" Michigan. They let those statements pass. Why did her name remain on the ballot when both Edwards and Obama took theirs off and respected the Party's decision? With none of them allowed to campaign either in Michigan or in Florida, those votes are totally flawed. And Hillary is on record as agreeing that those primaries should not part of the picture - that is before NH.

hilary, Newport, RI (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:22 PM)

Ok I will get in trouble with the under 30 crowd for this but here goes. It is best for Obama to look like he is behind in the polls. If the youth vote thinks they need to show up to win they will. In N.H. they figured he had it won and did not come out in numbers like in Iowa or S.C.. If they think he has it won they go to the bars instead of the booth. Remember they are a very hard group to poll so their numbers are not reflected well.

Vincent in KC (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:27 PM)

Vincent in KC (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 4:27 PM)

Hey, Youth Vote! (who ever the hell that is) Read this guys post and know which candidate's campaign considers you to be naive slackers that they are hoping to God they don't have to worry about. It's yours to take.

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:36 PM)

If you really want to know what this movement is about, then check out the UCLA rally for Sen. Obama that aired on yesterday (If c-span isn't repeating it, then go to You Tube). We Americans are tired of lies, scandals, corruption, lobbyists, and big business taking advantage of the middle-class and the poor. Sen. Obama is a brilliant, strong, and brave man with policies that will work for the American people for a change. We're no longer interested in politicians who are only in it for themselves and the lobbyists. We (the American people) are taking our country back! OBAMA, 2008- YES WE CAN!!!!

kj, Dallas, TX (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:39 PM)

I agree with Vincent in KC. The current youn voters need be nudged into the voting booth by way of thinking there vote is necessary for thier candidate to win other wise they will simply assume it is won a find something else to do with thier time. With that being said if you are reading this and feel like I do that the only way the Democratic party will win in November is for Obama to win the primary please vote...no excuses.

Raul Ibanez Oklahoma city OK (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:40 PM)

Let me make a prediction. Hillary will win by about 500 to 600 delegates. Even if her margin is that great, the media will spin it as a great Obama victory because he was up against the mighty Clinton political machine. Every time I turn on Chris Mathews, I give another 10 bucks to Hillary. --Shad0w

Dave Ludwig, Nogales Arizona (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:41 PM)

SurveyUSA numbers showing much different race.

24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 53% Clinton, 41% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 12th pre-primary tracking poll. Other pollsters show the contest closer. In SurveyUSA's last 3 tracking polls, Obama had led among men. At the wire, the two are tied. For 9 months, Clinton has led among women, at one point by 50 points. At the wire, she leads by 23. Obama leads for the first time in the San Francisco Bay Area. But Clinton dominates in greater Los Angeles, and maintains smaller leads in the Inland Empire and Central Valley. Among voters under age 50, Clinton leads by 6. Among voters 50+, Clinton leads by 21. Clinton leads by 5 among white voters, but overpowers Obama among Latinos. Obama leads 4:1 among black voters, but there are materially fewer blacks in California than Latinos. Clinton leads among Democrats. Obama leads among Independents.

Eric, NY, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:42 PM)

Well the just released Survey USA poll has Obama down by double digits and Clinton had a 12 point lead in those who had already voted early--a good sign. Why don't you mention that?

teddi, Norwalk, CT (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:46 PM)

This underdog status Obama is trying to play just isn't going to work. All the media covers him 24/7 and pushing him with all the momentum and tied with her so how is that the underdog. Get real. Obama supporters jumped on Hillary for Bill campaigning for her but Obama has all his endorser everywhere campaigning for him to get media coverage and that is ok. Can't he do it on his own as you demand of Hillary!!!

cheryl,az (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:55 PM)

Hillary does not represent change and is not to be trusted. She is the establishment candidate who was supposed to be crowned to preserve status quo. All you, young voters, do not be complacent. Every call you make matters. Every vote you cast counts. Only you can help Obama get us back our country. Go and vote tomorrow. Talk to family, a friend, or a relative. We are up against a well-oiled and mean machine.

Peter M, Toronto, Ontario (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:56 PM)

MM is spot on here! Obama supporters are sheep! They hear buzzwords like 'hope' and 'change', a few cheapshots at Bush and/or Hillary, rattle off the same phrases and slogans and all the sheep are like lemmings of the cliff! He has a great formula, eloquently can states the problems of America today, gets people energized without even them knowing what for! The voting record is very troubling! Can someone please ask him WHY HE VOTED TO EXTEND THE PATRIOT ACT? But he hardly votes on anything else. He is a fraud! It is not that I support Hillary however, I would rather be water-boarded than vote for Obama!

ANYONE BUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DON'T VOTE FOR HUSSEIN, Commonsense, USA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:58 PM)

Old McCain is so beatable it is laughable. He will a
a joke as the McPresident, would need a no doze pill each afternoon.

HP Boston (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:00 PM)

Can anyone tell me why it sounds like Hillary all of the sudden wants the Florida vote to be counted, when she had agreed along with the other democratic candidates that they would strip Florida of it delegates

Malik Low (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:02 PM)

Dems, Indies and Undecideds:

A vote for Hillary = a vote for McCain.

Hillary as nominee = a McCain White House.

Why? Fair or not, Hillary has too much "Billary" baggage to win in the General Election.

It's really November that counts. So, if you don't want another four years of a Republican presidency, vote for Obama. His appeal is crosscultural and crossparty. Hillary's appeal is Democrat only -- which is not enough to win the White House. Period.

Obama 08!

Stacy Johnson, California (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:07 PM)

I say if Obama can't mop up on Feb. 5th with all the accolades, Hollywooood, Ted-express, bazillions of $$$, and a kiss-up press - then he is by all accounts a very weak candidate. He should beat Hillary by 10% across the board - or get out of the race.

J of Ark (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:07 PM)

CA Independents take note: The CA Democratic Party allows you to vote in their primary (the GOP does not) but you must REQUEST A DEMOCRATIC BALLOT at your polling place. If you do not request the Dem ballot, you will receive a generic one with just state and local propositions on it, no presidential primary ballot.

Doug, San Diego (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:11 PM)

Senator Obama said about having to be right right on day one as well as ready. Talk is cheap. Actions mean louder than words.

My question to Obama supporter, what makes you think that Obama "will be right on day one as well as ready" considering the fact that Senator Obama admitted that his dealing with the corrupt slum landlord in Chicago was a "BONE HEAD" one? And considering Senator Obama LACK OF EXPERIECE, one would think that he would make more "BONE HEAD" decisions.

Cliff Baker (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:23 PM)

I hope you are wrong about youth voters, Vincent. Because I am banking on them. They are the reason I like Obama. He has gotten them willing to take the challenge, pick up our country and move it forward with economic and social justice and peace. I'm hoping that with an Obama win, some youth will be inspired to enter politics and take on some of their elders in Congress. That will be change. Change we can count on. So please young voters, go to the polls. Vote. And vote for Obama. Our future depends on it.

Alice Fried, Alameda, CA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:27 PM)

Go Obama!
We can do this!

Jim, Carbondale, IL (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:36 PM)

YOU CAN'T EVEN SUBMIT A QUESTION FOR CLINTONS TOWN HALL MEETING UNLESS YOUR ONE OF HER SUPPORTERS AND JOIN HER WEB SITE.

THIS WOMAN IS A JOKE !

James Brown , Eugene , Oregon (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:45 PM)

LETS ASK Senator Obama about Nuclear leaks for the EXelon Corp and how much money he received.
read NY Times today!!! Wow caught!!!!

john M (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:52 PM)

why is obama going to pull the upset tomorrow?...because of hard work and good campaigning about the real issues that affect many americans....plus, he doesn't have any skeletons in his closet like the clintons do....the repukes would crawl through broken glass to vote against hillary;...they don't know how to handle obama

justanotherdummycrat, Norwich, NY (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:52 PM)

I agree that Obama probably stands a better chance of winning in November. Personally I just can't get past Hillary's support for the invasion or Iraq--som that's why I'm almost certain to vote for Obama.

judith, burbank, ca (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:53 PM)

Good memo. Actually I'm surprised the Obama campaign is "lowering" expectations to being with a hundred. Lowering expectations is campaigning 101, and you never want to give a too-high lowering. I know things have tightened, but the Obama campaign must be looking at some different numbers than the rest of us have seen.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:54 PM)

In regards to Michigan and Florida
No one took their names off. All just agreed to not
campaign there.
Therefore no delegates but yes a winner!!! Hillary Clinton!

Read the exelon article..All should read!!!

Mary J (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:54 PM)

I am amazed by anyone who says Barack Obama is lacking in substance. If anyone truly believes this, I urge you to visit barackobama.com and read some of his well developed ( well thought out ) and I might add brilliant plans for solving problems in this country.

I know that when voters hear Senator Obama they understand what this movement is and they overwhelmingly give him their support. It is simply a matter of time. If super Tuesday were next week, I have no doubt that Senator Obama would win everywhere. As it is, it is remarkable that in one week, the Senator has communicated his message to enough people to be this close.

I hope that he will be our next President, because without him, I fear we are in trouble. Even with him, the problems that face us are huge. I strongly feel that corny as it sounds, "United we stand, divided we fall"-- only with Senator Obama do we have the possibility of that unity.

I also ask that people posting stop knocking republicans. and independents who are supporting Senator Obama. I am one of those independents and I am also an American who would like to see our Country with a transparent President, who follows the Constitution, does not evoke executive privilege at every opportunity and brings us into the debate by broadcasting important hearings (i.e. health care) on c-span so we can be involved and see exactly who the elected officials are who are trying to steal our country for special interests.

Yes we can!

Kim, Pasadena, CA (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 6:55 PM)

September 26 2004 Obama staes his support for attacking Iran and Pakistan...but he was opposed to the War on Terrorism from the beginning??? For 9 years he worked as an attorney (through a firm) that handeled shady dealings involving Antion Reznick, an Illinios slumlord; He also accepted donations from and allowed fundraisers to be hosted by Resnick, along with being involved in a very questionable real estate transaction with Reznick's wife and the purchase of his (Obama's) current home(hello...$300,000 under market value during the real estate boom!!), and he says he is the candidate that will help take back the White House and lead us into the future? Then there is the Infant Born Alive bill, which he voted against as a state Senator. This bill was not an attempt to limit abortion rights, but rather an attempt to protect babies born alive as the result of abortion. He claimed he would have voted yeah had the wording been the same as the bill's at the Federal level...yet it was. Why did he vote against a bill that would, if nothing else, help these babies at least pass without pain? Is that an example of his character, his leadership, where he wants to take this country? I say no thanks. I will take John McCain or Hillary Clinton gratefully, any day of the week, over Obama. God help us if he gets elected.

Theresa Felts, St. Petersburg, Fl (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 7:01 PM)

You can thank the media non stop love fest for Obama in gaining in the polls. Most people don't take the time to look at each of the candidates, they just listen to the sound bites and commercials.
Hillary is the best to be president period. Wait until the man behind the curtain comes out and the great Obama is not the wizard his feable minded followers thought he was.
Again the most quailfied is going to made fun of and put down because she is not the charismatic, double taking, race baiting, fraud Obama.

Jennifer,Arroyo Grande,Ca (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 7:28 PM)

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