First thoughts: A Super Day

Posted: Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:30 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A Super Day: It isn't always that reality lives up to the hype. But this election -- which for the last two years has been billed as the most wide open since 1928 or 1952 (take your pick) -- seems to be one of those times. And this Super Tuesday, the single biggest primary day in US history, becomes the latest chapter in most exciting primary season in our lifetimes. On the GOP side, the front-runner McCain has the opportunity tonight to pretty much lock up the Republican nomination by running the table. Or Romney could pull off several upsets, particularly in California, which would allow him to keep his White House hopes alive. Things in the Dem race aren't as clear. Looking at the narrowing polls, Obama has the opportunity that would have been unthinkable just a week ago: beat Clinton across the country, even in Clinton strongholds (CA, NJ, CT), which would pull the Democratic contest in his direction. Or Clinton could do what she did in New Hampshire: defy those polls, hold onto those strongholds, and capture some of the toss-up states (like MO and AZ). Most likely, however, Clinton and Obama will split up the delegates pretty evenly, moving the contest to Feb. 12 (DC, MD. VA), Feb. 19 (WI, WA), and March 4 (OH, TX). Obama himself predicted a “split decision” on TODAY and Morning Joe.

*** Looking for the break: But campaigns rarely deliver split decisions, and that’s why it’s possible that the Democratic electorate could break one way or the other. What if undecideds all go one way? And don't assume we think we know which direction they will break. We could easily explain how women power a break for Clinton, allowing her to win most states on the board today -- just as we could easily see undecideds breaking Obama and him cutting into Clinton's massive advantages among women and Hispanics thanks to a surge of younger voters that alter the makeup of electorates. The polls over the last week seem to indicate momentum is on the side of Obama, but we've all seen this movie before (think New Hampshire).

*** So many questions: Super Tuesday also has the potential to answer several other questions. One, is Clinton the de facto incumbent in this race? If she is, it's going to be a long night for her campaign since she's well under 50% in a number of states. Why does this matter? Because if she's perceived as the incumbent, look for undecideds to break decidedly to Obama. Then again, a number of us thought undecideds would break for Kerry against Bush in '04, and that didn't happen. Two, what will have a greater impact on viewers Tuesday night: racking up delegates or racking up states? As the New York Times’ Nagourney writes today, "The delegate count might matter more officially, but the state results could count more politically, and that will be the central tension of the night." And three, in how many states will McCain break the 50% threshold, and should that matter? There are five primary states in particular that McCain could sweep (AL, GA, MO, OK, TN) that he'd lose if he were facing a two-way contest.

*** Romney's last stand: Michigan saved Romney at a time he needed saving politically. This time, he's asking California to do the same. Here's what Romney said last night in Long Beach, CA: "We’ll look with eagerness as to what happens in California." That sounds like someone who is counting on California to send him a message.

*** The basics: A total of 24 states hold primaries or caucuses today (22 for the Democrats and 21 for the Republicans). At stake are a combined 2,600-plus delegates -- more than 80% of the total numbers of delegates needed to win the nomination in both parties. Each state awards delegates differently (winner take all, proportional by statewide vote, proportional by congressional district, or some combination of the two). But what’s truly “at stake” in the voting -- and this is an important distinction to make -- are “pledged delegates,” who are publicly bound in theory to a candidate at the national convention. There are numerous unpledged delegates (the “superdelegates” on the Dem side) whose arms can be twisted into changing their minds. Polls close as early as 7:00 pm ET in Georgia and close as late as 11:00 pm ET in California. (And don’t forget those Alaska caucuses, which will provide results around midnight ET.)

*** How to count delegates: On the Republican side, it's VERY easy; there are enough winner-take-call states to allow anyone who did ok in high school algebra to follow along. The Democratic side is not so easy: The threshold for winning an extra delegate (from 3-3 in a six-delegate district to 4-2 to 4-3 to 5-2 in a seven-delegate district etc.) changes. Then you add in the superdelegates. The Clinton campaign claims about a 100-delegate advantage among the supers. So if she gets any delegate advantage tonight, then she'll claim a 100+ delegate lead early and often. Obviously, Obama's folks would like to win the night on the delegate front, so that Clinton's super lead is cut into the double digits. Speaking of the spin war, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns did their best yesterday to lower expectations, with Team Clinton reminding folks this could be a convention fight (can you say Florida and Michigan credential fight?) and the Obama folks reminding the media that Clinton's still the favorite tonight to win more delegates and more states. The truth? As always, somewhere in between!

*** The celebrity factor: Is there such a thing as too much celebrity help? It seems as if the rich and famous are coming out of the woodwork for Obama. Notes NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan: "Chris Rock and Scarlett Johansson recorded automated get-out-the-vote phone calls for Obama that went out yesterday, while singer Dave Matthews endorsed him on his website. Kate Michelman lent a feminist weight to his candidacy this weekend. And who can forget Oprah? These heavyweights, whether celebrities or politicians, have fanned out across the country to provide testimony to the potential of a Barack Obama candidacy." Usually, a candidate that wins the Hollywood primary doesn't always do as well in the rest of America. Obama might need to start worrying about looking too out-of-touch. Sure, the celebrities can help turn out the casual voter he's been targeting (particularly the youth), but celebrities can give a false sense of self-worth for the campaign, which is something Camp Obama may need to start worrying about.

*** On the trail: The locales for the candidates’ election night parties shouldn’t be surprising: Clinton is in New York City; Huckabee is in Little Rock, AR; McCain is in Phoenix; Obama is in Chicago; and Romney is in Boston. Elsewhere today, Clinton votes in Chappaqua, NY at 7:40 am ET; Huckabee attends the West Virginia GOP convention before heading back to Little Rock to vote at 3:15 pm ET; McCain holds rallies in New York City and San Diego before heading to Phoenix; and Romney attends the West Virginia GOP convention and holds a media avail in Charleston, WV before heading to Massachusetts.

Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 7 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 273 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 350 days

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Comments

Over/under on the number of lawsuits filed over today’s voting? I think 5 total. 4 from Clinton and one from Obama. Obama will sue just to prove to the democrats he is just as capable of trying to get the rules changed after a vote as Billary is. It’s important to show the base you can steal an election while trying to look like the victim.

k. austin (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:40 AM)

V O T E

adam/nyc (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:47 AM)

I voted at 705 am There were some lines already...

Lynette, NYC (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:51 AM)

America, whoever your candidate is, GET OUT & VOTE.
I'm going to see my Grand Baby's today. I'll read all the Nonsense sometime tonight.

Good Luck to all.

Barack Obama for President!!!!

Rick,ky (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:51 AM)

Gobama!

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:51 AM)

Get out and VOTE!!!!

Obama '08!!!!!

L. Jackson Topeka KS (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:52 AM)

No, no, no, no, no. If Clinton wins CA/NJ/CT, it doesn't defy the polls. It's close in all those states, yes, but Clinton is for the most part ahead. It would not defy anyone's expectatins.

In addition, the Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby polls undercount women and/or overcount men.

Nicholas Beaudrot, Seattle, WA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:54 AM)

I have to clarify a point I noticed reiterated falsely on several of these threads yesterday, regarding Clinton's health care plan.

Many Clinton supporters seem to hear the words "universal coverage" and immediately imagine a European/Canadian-style single-payer system. There were several comments on these boards yesterday to the effect of, "If Europe and/or Canada can afford it, why can't we, and Hillary will get us there."

That would be all well and good if that were actually what Hillary is proposing. It's not. She is proposing an expansion of our current health care system by forcing every single person in this country to buy health care, whether they can afford it or not. If someone chooses not to buy health care for whatever reason (this is still a free country, as I recall), she hinted that she may be willing to garnish their wages.

Not only is this a decidedly bad idea both substantively and politically, it is also inherently anti-democratic and extremely timid. If Hillary wanted to go out on a limb and support a government-run single-payer health system, she would probably have a lot of support for that, albeit not a lot of institutional support. She recognizes, of course, that it would take a lot of political clout to get something like that through congress. So she says "universal", knowing that many democrats will automatically think "free health care for all".

The worst part? Her plan will by definition be the most harshly punitive to the most vulnerable in our society: the poor, the disenfranchised, and the lower middle class. Ridiculous, and contrary to every principle of the Democratic party.

Mark S, NC (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:56 AM)

To all the women of my boomer generation who are torn by this decision, please consider this. If Hillary’s quest for the nomination ends with the unexpected rise of this silver-tongued young upstart, we can all be proud of the strength of her candidacy. At this point nobody can deny that she was fully accepted by the American people as a legitimate contender for the top office in the land. She has already cleared the path for women who decide to run in the future.

If she manages to beat Obama now, Hillary drives a stake through the heart of a dream beginning to take hold of the public imagination. A diverse spectrum of America sees in Barack’s candidacy the hope that we can bridge the gulf that has divided our country since we all came of age. We can’t expect to then convert these dreamers to our vision of managerial expertise and the paying of dues and waiting your turn in time to turn them out and win an election.

If Hillary loses in November, (and she will lose) think about what that does to the chances of women seeking their party’s nomination in the future. If Hillary couldn’t win with all the built in advantages that come with having a husband who happened to be a two-term president, then why should the party take a risk on another woman in the future, particularly one without all the advantages Hillary enjoys? If we get behind Obama now, it’s win-win. We can safely say that all the barriers of race and gender have been shattered and future candidates can rise to the top based solely on ability. Isn’t that what we have been working for all these years?

jaycee, Ventura, California (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 9:59 AM)

All I kone is that I love my country, and I want waht's best for it.
That's why I am voting for Hillary today!
GET OUT AND VOTE AMERICA!

GO HILLARY, 2008!

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:01 AM)

I have not been as nervous and excited about elections in a long time. It seems to come down to the power of women's vote as well as Hispanic's for Clinton and Independants and 18-30 for Obama. It's going to be a late night folks!

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:02 AM)

Go Go Go Hillary! - Obama and Hillary had put out a great week of campaining and I hold up much respect for both candidates. We all have our differences of opinions - so let's just root for our own candidate and stop knocking the others. Go Hillary!

Frank, South Hampton, NY (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:06 AM)

Vote.
Follow your heart.
Believe in yourself.
Believe in our future.

Obama '08

Ed G (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:07 AM)

This is Hillary's last day on the campaign trail. After today, she'll get the rest she deserves.

Holden Masters (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:07 AM)

The reason I'm voting for Romney: When the topic of the economy comes up in the White House, I want our President to be the smartes person in the room. That person is Mitt Romney.

Seth, Georgia (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:07 AM)

New York State...get out and vote the Carpet Bagger back to Arkansas. Remember her promise to us? "I won't use my position as a senator from New York as a stepping stone to the Whitehouse."

Vote Obama08

Bob Wheeler, Mendon, NY (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:09 AM)

100 New York Feminists Endorse Barack Obama

The Clinton 'house of cards' is collasping...
Was it all just a scam to get Bill his THIRD TERM ?

'...Those endorsing Obama include longtime peace
activist Cora Weiss; Katha Pollitt, columnist for The
Nation; Pulitzer-prize winning New York Times writer
Margo Jefferson; award-winning women's rights
historians Alice Kessler Harris and Linda Gordon;
Barbara Weinstein, president of the American
Historical Association, and Ellen P. Chapnick, Dean
for Social Justice Initiatives at Columbia Law School.
Susan Sarandon and Francis Fox Piven signed on
Monday...'

'...This group joins other prominent feminist leaders
who have turned against Hillary and endorsed Obama,
including Kate Michelman, president for 20 years of
NARAL Pro-Choice America, the country's leading
reproductive rights group, and Ellen Bravo, former
director of 9to5, the National Association of Working
Women...'

'...Jon Wiener

sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:11 AM)

Hillary all the way - do not be swayed by the rich and famous - remember they are the rich and famous. I don't need them to make up my mind - i can think for myself..I vote for Hillary, inspiration and prespiration together. GO HILLARY!

Joan, Burlington, Vt (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:12 AM)

MSNBC wants Obama to win.

Chirs Matthews wants Obama to win.

'Nuff said.

Mark, Columbus, OH (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:13 AM)

'...Zogby shows Obama has stormed to a stunning 13% lead, 49% to 36%. Just yesterday, Obama was up 46% to 40%...'

From Campaigm Diaries:

'...2.05.2008
In final Super Tuesday polls, California is all over the place

After SUSA's massive wave of polls comforted Clinton supporters earlier today, we knew that the next batch of surveys could only bring some good news to Obama supporters. And Zogby's third and last day of tracking polls confirms that pollsters are very divided in what to expect in the Democratic race. Their Republican results are much more consistent, suggesting that the Democratic primary is still very fluid with many people still making up their mind.

And with that let's review the latest numbers from Zogby, and first off California where two polls show widely different numbers.

Zogby shows Obama has stormed to a stunning 13% lead, 49% to 36%. Just yesterday, Obama was up 46% to 40%, so he had some very good single nights Sunday and Monday. Zogby explains that he progressed among Hispanic voters and women, two key Clinton constituencies.
Among Republicans, Romney remains stable, leading 40% to 33% for McCain with Huckabee at 12%.

That California's polls are all over the place is confirmed by SUSA's second California poll of the day. They supplemented the poll they had this afternoon with numbers from Monday night and found Clinton up 52% to 42%. Clinton's advantage among Latinos is a large 67% to 31%. The key to Clinton's good numbers here lies in the fact that more than a third of the electorate have already voted, and they indicate having chosen Clinton by 17%. Obama will need to have a big day tomorrow to offset that.
SUSA shows Romney facing the same problem: SUSA explains that conservatives are now racing to vote Romney (who has tripled his support among conservatives in three weeks) but Romney will have to offset his disadvantage among early voters who are locked in for McCain by 6%. Overall, Romney has pulled into a tie, 39% to 38%. In the poll released this afternoon, Romney was down 39-36...'

sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:13 AM)

Yes, let's vote for the community activist from Chicago and part-time junior Senator. He can lead us through any community type activites we may have in the future. Oh, he is for change and yes we can do what ever it is he's going to do. After all some actresses and liberal far-left typical Washington crowd people are supporting him. And most of all I like his general speeches about general stuff. I almost forgot, he's a civil rights attorney who will free the muslims from Getmo.

USC Students for better stuff (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:18 AM)

Vote OBAMA!

Bruce, Madison, Wisconsin (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:20 AM)

I find it rather amusing that the Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee is siding with John McCain, who has had numerous failed marriages with children that are not very close. McCain even had an illegitimate child with a Bangladesh woman while he was married to one of his previous wives, which he later adopted.

Mitt Romney is the absolute candidate for President without doubt.

Bob - NC (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:20 AM)

Hillary is not just the most qualified candidate, she is also the smartest, on both sides.

kincaid, Alcoa, TN (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:21 AM)

Please make a correction - Washington's Democratic caucus is February 9. The official primary on Feb 19 means nothing - it is a beauty pageant.

John Doe, Seattle, Wash (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:21 AM)

From Campaign Diaries:

'...The second state from which we have more than one poll is New Jersey:

First, Zogby has Clinton rising to a slight lead, 46% to 41%, after being stuck in a tie at 43% last night.
Rasmussen finds a similar margin in New Jersey, showing Clinton coming in 49% to 43%. Rasmussen's poll is still an improvement for Obama who trailed 49% to 37% a few days ago, suggesting that undecideds are breaking his way.
Zogby's other polls are less surprising and less unexpected, albeit the Missouri numbers are interesting:

The Missouri Dem race is in a toss-up, with Obama up 45% to 42%, a slight downturn from yesterday's 5% lead...'

Have a FUN ELECTION !

Obama '08

sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:21 AM)

Another side note on 'Universal Healthcare'...

One of the greatest things about this country is that we have the freedom of choice. We have competition amongst our goods/services providers that allow us to have the best-of-the-best, the most cutting edge, innovative technology. That is true even in healthcare. Can you imagine not having the choice of whether to go to a particular doctor for, say, orthopedic surgery, because a)the wait would be years upon years or b)because like many other things in recent years, the doctors all practice out of other countries because they get paid better elsewhere? That is what would happen if we did not have a system of CHOICE with our healthcare.

The current system, where insurance companies and networks dictate our decisions is wrong. However, taking away the competition factor where doctors/scientists strive for a new and innovative definition of excellence would only hurt US, the patient. Also of importance - Canadians, Europeans, etc...come to our country to have medical procedures done - BECAUSE we have the best of the best, and because although our system is VERY FLAWED - it creates a level of excellence that is higher than in other places.

Did you know that what is considered a birth defect and a flaw in a child in say, China, is corrected by an outpatient procedure in our country? Did you know that part of what drives up the cost of healthcare is the fact that we have so many regulations and mandates that are expensive (but necessary) in order to provide top-rated healthcare?

When you talk about universal healthcare, which sounds like an awesome opportunity to provide everyone with treatment for whatever ailments they have, you should look further into what it would do to this country - the long term effects and the implications it has for our future.

We need reform - change and hope - but we have to find a way to incorporate the American way of life into all of the issues of today, especially the ones that we are depending on to carry us in to the future!

Kathryn in Bham (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:21 AM)

Dear NBC/MSNBC:

URGENT MESSAGE

The Clinton camp (surrogates) is at it again with slanderous late statements about Sen. Obama's record on reproductive rights.

THIS IS THE SAME DIRTY TRICKS THE CAMPAIGN USED THE DAY BEFORE NEW HAMPSHIRE. BUT BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE SO DISGUSTED, THEY ARE NOW USING A SURROGATE ORGANIZATION TO DISTRIBUTE THIS PATENTLY FALSE AND LIBELOUS INFORMATION THROUGH THE INTERNET INSTEAD OF THE FLIERS THEY USED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

The TRUTH is that Sen. has a 100% score on women's rights (abortion).

This is the very dirty politics that I and other Americans are sick and tired of. I'm extremely upset when politicians win because of dirty politics rather than voting on truth.

PLEASE EXPOSE THIS STORY BEFORE MOST PEOPLE GO TO THE POLLS. THE VALIDITY OF TODAY'S PRIMARY DEPENDS ON IT.

Sincerely,

Dr. Brad Burke
Maricopa, AZ

Dr. Brad Burke, Maricopa, AZ (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:23 AM)

Mark S, NC / it is also worth noting hillary's alleged healthcare plan was crafted with direct input from the insurance and pharmaceutical companies that are bankrolling her campaign, if you look at the few concrete details of her plan you will find it is all about making money for her lobbyist friends, and it will make that money on the backs of the american citizen, it's much more a healthcare tax than a healthcare plan, it is an absolute lie to call this farce ‘universal healthcare’, unfortunately no one seems to care, may they get what they deserve

MK,MO (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:24 AM)

As the sun comes up in California everyone I have talked to this morning is excited for today....I still have some undecided's in my office to try and sway.

Who ever you are voting for - let your voice be heard today - get out and VOTE!!! This is the Liberty Part in Life Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness....Probably the most important election since 1968....It's a great day to be an American!

Independent in CA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:24 AM)

John, San Diego (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:24 AM)

Mark S of N.C- I am in the hlthcare field working daily for pt's/member's behalf. Considering that 42 millions Americans have no insurance and use the emergency rooms to deal with their medical issues resulting in astronomical costs for everyone in closing of trauma units across the country. We have to remove profits from it because if you saw Sicko it is right on (except the Cuba segment). Hmo's raking record profits for their CEO'S/Shareholders while middle class Americans decides between food and/or meds to keep them well. Please spare me the jingoism of Socialism while our country lags other industrialized countries in terms of lifespan and the greedy corporate king makers along with their corrupt politicians. I hear horror stories everyday from pts and their families about why they were rejected when they thought they had coverage. The status quo is not acceptable.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:25 AM)

GOOD MORNING AMERICA ! IT'S A SUPER DUPER TUESDAY..BRING IT ON !

HILLARY (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:25 AM)

'..."He acts like this is an entitlement," said the Michigan Democrat. "How could anyone be challenging him and his wife?" ...'

From Huffington Post:

'...Sam Stein
The Huffington Post

Conyers: Bill Clinton "Can't Contain Himself" On Trail
February 4, 2008 08:03 PM

Rep. John Conyers, the powerful chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and a supporter of Sen. Barack Obama, levied harsh words for Bill Clinton, saying the former president "can't contain himself" on the campaign trail.

"He acts like this is an entitlement," said the Michigan Democrat. "How could anyone be challenging him and his wife?" It is hard for us to remember that that was exactly the age he was when he ran for president. He was 46, the same age [as Obama]. And he was considered an upstart."

Conyers has spent much of the past week campaigning for Obama, and he called the primary battle one of the most pitched and emotional he'd ever seen. In a phone interview with the Huffington Post, he dismissed the notion -- raised in last Thursday's CNN Democratic debate -- that either of the candidates would be willing to server as the other's vice president.

"I started off thinking this is the way we would resolve it," the congressman said. "But I think they both generally see themselves as presidential material and not people working underneath or subservient to the other. You know the vice president thing as Clinton and Gore taught us doesn't always work out too well."...'

sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:26 AM)

I, like everyone I know, voted by mail-in ballot a couple of weeks ago. California and Arizona may already be decided. I am a Hillary fan. As a middle-aged woman who struggled under the weight of the oppression of my time, it is empowering to watch one woman do what millions of us could not. Hillary has taken a beating. She has been bashed and vitrolized and assaulted. She represents the lives of many of us. Her beating will scare many young girls and women from attempting their dreams - lest they be bashed as well. It is important that Hillary succeed to send a message that we can overcome. It is important to teach young women not to listen to men who promise them the stars and the moon. The promises we make to ourselves are the only promises that matter and each time one of us survives a beating, the bullies will beat a little less until we are able to stop the beatings all together. Viva la Hillary!!!

BionicWoman, Tucson, AZ (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:27 AM)

This election will cost MSNBC its share of viewers on the basis of their dishonest coverage.

It's the smae every day - never a bad word to say about obama or a good word to say about Clinton.

It's upsidedown at MSNBC - even in states where she wins but not by a big margin she is seen as the loser.
I have given up on Matthews and Carlson and now find the "humor" of Keith to be nausiating.

What does this say about past Democratic losers - Al Gore's running mate is campaigning for John McCain!
Ted Kennedy hasn't this much attention since he ran around with a "neckbrace" after leaving Mary Jo Kopechne to drown.

Hillary Clinton is a proven winner and perhaps that is why so many Democrats will vote for Obama - they love a loser! Like lemmings running off the cliff!

Hillary Clinton - a better health care plan and a better plan for the economy! And, a better plan to get us out of Iraq!

I voted for Hillary clinton last month and will do so again in November 2008!

Fred C Dobbs, Sierra Madre, N.M. (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:28 AM)

The Democratic race is thus flirting with a dangerous competition between inequalities to correct or injustices to repair. The risk is that by dividing the electorate of their party, the two candidates could cause fractures that the one who is nominated cannot repair.

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1700

.

Jeff, Austin (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:30 AM)

The only real candidate, the only one that stands for meaningful improvements is Ron Paul. Obama and Hillary? Please, they stand for the same failed socialist policies of the past. Mitt or John? Nah, both will say anything to get elected as they have no core values. Ron Paul is the only candidate that does not pander, lie, or mislead. He states his opinion without spin. Basically he is the only honest candidate running and he has earned our vote.

Eric, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:31 AM)

Juan, ft lauderdale,fl

I couldn't agree with you more. I did see "Sicko", and I would support a single-payer system. That's not what Hillary is proposing. Please read my prior post again more carefully for clarification. I just don't want democrats to get suckered in by talk of "universal healthcare", dreaming of a single-payer system, when they're not getting anything of the kind. If anything, I think, Hillary's plan will make things worse for the poorest of the poor. Obama has the right focus: make health care affordable for all, reduce costs and provide subsidies, so that anyone who wants to have health care can afford it.

Mark S, NC (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:33 AM)

If there is any candidate who will divide the Democrats it is Obama. He makes John McCain look very promising.

Edward S. Scottsdale, AZ. (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:33 AM)

ZOGBY PUTS ANTI-CLINTON BIAS ON THE LINE. Zogby's love affair with Obama is well known- he didn't even conduct polls in states that Clinton is far ahead- like Oklahoma or Tenn! Nor does he mention the surprising fact that Hillary has surged in Alabama- nope- but he makes HUGE play about the double digit Obama lead in Georgia. Then you have Survey USA with Clinton up 10 in California- Zogby has Obama up 10! In Missouru, Survey USA has a huge Clinton surge- she is up by 11, BUT Zogby has Obama up by 3!!! What is up with Massachusetts?????????? Obama has almost every major endorcement in the state-as well as the Gov and Kennedy machines-yet he is down 12 points- why isnt the media looking at Mass as a signal for how much the Kennedy endorcement meant????? The biggest fraud is that fool Lund on Fox- his discredited staged focus groups are still being used by that station to pimp a conservative agenda- so much for fair and balanced- what a laugh.

Robert Houston, TX (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:34 AM)

From Huffington Post:

MoveOn Endorses Obama
NEDRA PICKLER | February 1, 2008 06:10 PM EST |

LOS ANGELES — Barack Obama picked up the endorsement
of a leading anti-war group Friday and said Democratic
presidential rival Hillary Rodham Clinton still has
not adequately explained her vote to go into Iraq.

Obama told reporters in a news conference that, even
though Clinton explains how she would like to end the
war, her explanation for her vote leading into the war
is disingenuous. He said his opposition against the
war from the start will make him the stronger rival to
Republican front-runner and war backer John McCain in
the general election.

Obama's long-standing opposition to the war helped him
pick up the backing of MoveOn.org, a liberal network
which counts 3.2 million members and decided to
support him by a vote of 70 percent to 30 percent for
Clinton. The group said Friday that it has 1.7 million
members in the 22 states scheduled to vote in the race
Tuesday, and it would immediately begin a campaign to
get them behind Obama.

Obama also picked up the support of a large union in
California which had endorsed rival John Edwards, who
dropped out of the race this week.

Meanwhile, Oprah Winfrey was returning to the campaign
trail in support of her friend Obama. The talk show
hostess planned to hold a rally with Obama's wife,
Michelle, and Caroline Kennedy on Sunday in Los
Angeles. Winfrey held massive rallies for Obama in
December in the early voting states of Iowa, New
Hampshire and South Carolina.

MoveOn.org executive director Eli Pariser said the
country needs a president to end the war, provide
universal health care, address climate change, restore
America's standing in the world and "change business
as usual in Washington." In his statement, Pariser
thanked all the other candidates who ran in the
Democratic primary for their contributions to the
race.

Obama criticized Clinton's answer during a debate
Thursday night when she was asked why she voted
against a 2002 amendment offered by Sen. Carl Levin,
D-Mich. The amendment would have given weapons
inspectors more time in Iraq and required President
Bush to first obtain U.N. approval before using force.
Clinton argued that a vote for the Levin amendment
would have subordinated U.S. authority in Iraq to the
U.N. Security Council and called it a troublesome
precedent.

She reiterated her explanation of the 2002 vote to
give Bush authority to use military force to oust
Saddam Hussein. But she added, "If I had known then
what I know now, I never would have given President
Bush the authority. It was a sincere vote based on my
assessment at the time and what I believed he would do
with the authority he was given. He abused that
authority; he misused that authority."

She declined to say the vote was a mistake. Obama
criticized her explanation in his news conference, the
third he's held this week leading into the Super
Tuesday contests. Clinton holds a lead in the polling
in most of those states.

"I think there continues to be a suggestion that it
was not a vote for war, and I thought that her
explanation with respect to the Levin amendment was
inaccurate," Obama said. "Anyone who looks at the
Levin amendment knows that we were not ceding
sovereignty in some fashion to the United Nations."

Responding to Obama Friday, Clinton spokesman Phil
Singer said Obama's early opposition to the war was
not borne out by his actions in the Senate.

"The reality is that once he got sworn in, he
explicitly called for keeping troops in Iraq and
opposed a timeline for withdrawal, only changing his
position when he became a candidate for the White
House," Singer said.

In Sacramento, one of California's largest unions, the
Service Employees International Union', decided to
throw its support to Obama. The 650,000-member union's
backing could help Obama cut into Clinton's lead in
California polls of Democratic base voters, many of
whom are union members. The SEIU includes city, county
and state workers, as well as in-home support and
health care workers.

Union officials will urge their members to vote for
Obama but do not plan to do a wider get-out-the-vote
effort.

Obama was also endorsed Friday by the New York
City-based Transport Workers Union, which also had
originally sided with Edwards. "With Senator Edwards
out of the race, our officers found it an easy
decision to lend our support to the Obama campaign,"
said union president James C. Little. The
200,000-member Transport Workers Union is the first
national AFL-CIO-affiliated union to endorse Obama.

Obama said he has spoken to former presidential
candidate Bill Richardson about getting his
endorsement.

"We have no plans of receiving an endorsement, but I
would love to be pleasantly surprised," he said.

The New Mexico governor has spoken to former President
Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Massachusetts Sen.
Edward Kennedy, who endorsed Obama on Monday.
Richardson was unclear on whether he would made an
endorsement before Democratic caucuses in his state
Tuesday.

"I asked all my supporters in New Mexico to make their
own choice, but don't be guided by me. And I mean
that. I think we have a good selection of candidates,"
he said.

sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:34 AM)

Kathryn in Bham (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:35 AM)

For the Repubicans amongst us - if you want a liberal (equal to Billary) that is an old ex-military man with a hot temper, zero business experience, and just more Washington, then you should vote for McCain. But if you want a conservative with excellent business experience that knows how to get things done, then you should vote for Mitt Romney.

MITT ROMNEY will make an excellent President!

Al - CA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:39 AM)

Obama could very well shock the world today. America is sick of a House divided and a do nothing congress and lets face it...........thats what Clinton has to offer this country.

TURN THE PAGE
OBAMA 08

YES WE CAN

Jim , Oregon (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:39 AM)

Is something big happening today?

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:40 AM)

everyone is talking about CA now so thank arnold for moving us up.
dont believe the polls
get out and vote if you want your guy or gal to win

mike b, long beach CA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:42 AM)

Well MSNBC, we'll leave it to you as usual to tell us who won and who will be our next President. We don't have to guess, watching your election coverage so far this year. But I'll be watching CNN tonight. I've had enough of the Obama News Network. Clinton, no matter if she wins the popular vote or delegate vote tonight will every be declared anything but a loser by your commentators and Obama only the winner. The fix is in.

obamawatch, LA (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:43 AM)

Eliminating celebrities from politics is akin to keeping fatties from restaurants (or pigs from a trough); it can't be done but should be, both morally and ethically (and medically).

"Corn-row, Split-tail, or War Veteran for Commander- in-Chief?"

Doc, Monroe WV (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:45 AM)

Hussein, Rodham, or Big, Bad, John?

Doc WV (Sent Tuesday, February 05, 2008 10:46 AM)

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