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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Tsunami Tuesday (D)

Posted: Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:16 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

Obama won 13 states: Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah. Clinton won eight states: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. New Mexico hasn’t been called, but Obama has a very slight lead there.

The New York Times: “Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama carved up the nation in the 22-state nominating contest on Tuesday, leaving the Democratic presidential nomination more elusive than ever… It was a night of drama as millions of Democrats cleaved sharply between two candidates offering them a historic first: The opportunity to nominate a woman or an African-American to lead their party’s effort to reclaim the White House. Yet it was also a night when neither Mr. Obama nor Mrs. Clinton could decisively lay claim - or even secure an edge - to the nomination, assuring an electoral fight that will unfold for weeks to come.”

The Boston Globe: “Obama and Clinton began yesterday essentially tied at two victories each after voting in the first four states. And that is more or less how the day ended: Neither Obama nor Clinton scored a decisive win nationally.”

The Washington Post: In many of the states Clinton won, Obama had surged from far behind to narrow the gap in the days before Super Tuesday. Her ability to hold off his charge brought a sense of relief to her campaign advisers, but the likelihood that neither would emerge with a significant advantage in delegates was a sign that their roller-coaster competition would continue.”

Per the AP’s Ron Fournier, Clinton and Obama “fought to a draw on Super Tuesday, splitting the delegates almost evenly while each emerged with bragging rights. Obama won the most states. Clinton seized delegate-rich California and New York. The calendar now favors Obama, whose strength among blacks and upscale, educated voters gives him the edge in states holding contests this month… So why worry? Despite Obama's successes so far, it's hard to argue with Bill Clinton that it's a ‘roll of the dice"’ to vote for a freshman senator less than four years removed from the Illinois legislature. Obama still has much to prove. The potential for setbacks and mistakes is high.” 

The Boston Globe’s Canellos: “A fierce, protracted contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could sour the good feelings - or energize the party even more, depending on how the candidates conduct themselves.”

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Obama has no chance to win the general election in November 08, McCain and the GOP will simply destroy him  by taking on his record as a drug user and they will present him as weak on national defense and security.
I believe Hillary is the best choice for the Democrats, she's the one who is most prepared to face McCain and his GOP machine, she's the one who can make the difference and win the general election on November 08.
 
Hilary and Clinton both served their terms in the white house. Should she become president it will be like electing Bill Clinton for a third term. It is time to bring a change, new face, new constituents. Let's show to the world that we are not as divided as we may appear to be.
We need to unite as Americans. The time has come to show the world that we can get along. Obama is a great candidate for president.  He will be the president for every body not just one particular group.
If I hear one more comment about Obama's lack of experience, I'll probably scream! He has as much experience as John Kennedy had. What on earth was George Bush's experience? Failed business person. He couldn't even make a profit in OIL!! Hilary has no more experience than Obama. He's bright and he's inclusive. He doesn't scold, he seeks to bring people together without blame. Obama IS a rock star. I met John Kennedy when I was 12 years old, Obama radiates the same power and charisma.
I was amazed reading some of the commentary on this page with respect to Obama winning in red states. That's precisely the point, he is only winning in states where the democrats have basically never won and will not win in a general election. Obama is played up by the media because they love a story, but Bill Clinton is right to elect Obama is a roll of the dice, we know absolutely nothing about this guy accept that he has the most liberal voting record so far in the senate! By the way I am  black man!
GO BILLARY!!  As a Republican, I totally agree with Ari Fleicher - White Water, Pardongate, Travelgate, Filegate, Vince Foster, Lincoln bedroomgate, "I never had sex with that woman" (Talk about a fairy tale!!!), etc. etc.  Hilary makes claims that she was involved in EVERY aspect of Bill Clinton's presidential terms - BRING IT ON!!  We're gonna have a field day.
Super Tuesday PROVES Hillary's electability!
She won in N.Y. and N.J. in spite of DeNiro's endorsement of Obama at a ralley in Jersey two days ago; she won in Massachusetts despite Ted Kennedy's and John  Kerry's endorsements up there; she won Arizona even though Governor Napolitano endorsed Obama; and, she won big in California in defiance of Maria Shriver's support for Obama, and opposition from Oprah's Hollywood crowd.
Furthermore, we keep hearing from the media about how Obama's momentum is gaining and how he's going to knock her out.
But, it never happens.
Hillary is "The Comeback Kid II." She has shown that she can win, even when the establishment of the Democratic Party comes out against her in force.
Imagine what she could do as The Democratic Candidate in a general election with that establishment behind her.
Obama is a slick talker.
But, if he couldn't apply the knockout punch in Mass. and Ca., after the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, John Kerry, Maria Shiver, Robert DeNiro, and Oprah's Hollywood 'posse,' then he would never be able to win a general election.
Last night, Hillary showed us what she can do. She's the best, most electable candidate The Democratic Party has.
Let's unite behind her, for the good of our country, and our party!

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT 2008!
"Change is the residue of design, and design is the by-product of experience."
I want to see numbers regarding votes cast Dem vs Rep.  I know not all that voted for Hillary woudl vote for Obama or vice versa....and the same is true on the Repub side.  But anyone know where to find stats like that.

and again....so excited to have a voice.  Come on Texas primary!!
The concept of red or blue state doesn't mean the same thing in a primary election as it does in a general.  So what if a republican does well in a blue state...this just means that he got more votes from one group of republicans than he did another....it has nothing to do with how the entire state will vote in a general election.

Clinton is not at all liked by the right but she does have a chance with those centrist republicans that want a well planned withdrawal from Iraq as well as a strong defense.  In addition, conservative democrats and liberal republicans both want a real action plan for economic growth.  

Let's not forget that there will be a ticket that includes bot Pres. and VP candidates and this nomination process may be as much to form a ticket as it is to determine who will be the presidential candidate.  

I see polling information re: how each candidate would fare in a head on competition but I would be interested in knowing how an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket would compete against any Republican ticket.

We are passionate about our candidates now but in the end we need to make some choices and form the ticket that will win back the White House and give us the power in the senate and house to enact the reforms that both of our candidates support.

The fix is in though with the Super Delegates. Hillary's had those in her back pocket forever so Barack doesn't stand a chance. Barack will have the peoples vote, but not the Democratic Machine vote. Nothing like disenfranchising the people from who they really want elected.
To all of you who are trumpeting the fact that Barack won in many of the "red" states:

Usually, a democrat will with the Democratic primary in a "red" state.  It says absolutely nothing about the general election.  Also, in those red states, those were open primaries or caucuses.  I would wager that lots of Republicans voted in Alaska, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado, etc., many Republicans showed up to vote for Obama as he is the easiest target for the McCain machine to come.  And if we're talking about red state wins, let's look at Oklahoma, Tennessee, Florida, Nevada, Arizona.  With all his surging momentum, Obama should have done much better than he did even though it's still basically a tie.  But Hillary plowed through Mass., Calif., TN, OK, AZ and split the delegates in Missouri and New Mexico.  She has decided advantages in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania - 3 of the biggest prizes left.  And should the DNC decide to allow Michigan and Florida their delegates back, then she surges way forward as those were huge wins for her.
Is there any information regarding the Decline-to-State (unaffiliated) vote in Los Angeles County. Those voters had to indicate Democratic on their ballots and also vote for their particular candidate. From my understanding, if they neglected to mark Democratic on their ballots, then those ballots would not be counted toward the Presidential Primary. I only ask because there could be a significant amount of votes that otherwise could have gone toward Senator Obama but now won't be counted. Anyone have more info on the matter? Just thought I'd share.
There are several comments on this board regarding Obama's wins in "red states" and how he will obviously not be able to transfer that into wins in those states in November.

Au contraire. This is exactly the point.

What Obama has been saying all along, and what the Clinton supporters are too short-sighted to get, is that we have the potential in this election to break out of the red-blue divide we've been in for the last 30 years. Can he win Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alabama in the general? Probably not. Could he win Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Arizona, Montana, Virginia, North Carolina--maybe even Mississippi? Quite possibly, if he continues to build the cross-party coalitions he's been very successful at building thus far in this election. Could Hillary win those? Maybe a few, maybe not. This is what we mean when we speak of "transformational". Obama is, Hillary is not.

On the other side: if Hillary is nominated, and McCain is the nominee, she will (guaranteed) lose every current red state with the possible exception of Arkansas. And she will be fighting McCain on Blue State turf (New Jersey, Delaware, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon).

Even Tom Brokaw said on the air last night that we can't judge this election by past models. It's time for new models. It's time for Obama.
It is so interesting to see the primaries unfold.  Super Tuesday had some interesting twists that will now play out in the coming months.  I foresee both primaries getting ugly.  On the Republican side the battle lines have already been drawn between the far right conservatives and McCain as the front-runner.  On the Democratic side the Super Tuesday contrast between the 4-1 African American vote and a somewhat more balanced white vote for the candidates foreshadows the race issue resurfacing in a big way.  The biased media commentators, and I mean all of them, are loving the way it’s playing out.
For everyone who's convinced that the high turnout is only due to Obama's running, let me remind you that Democratic turnout has been more than double Republican,and considerably higher than either party from 2004.  While this might be due in small margin to the new kid on the block, did you ever think it's simply that after seven years of Republican lunacy, that Democrats are just energized in general and will not fail to show up in November no matter who the nominee is?  I just give this as a reminder for everyone who is frightened of a fractured Democratic party and are voting based on this probably baseless, warrantless fear.  And for everyone who believes that John McCain would be unbeatable because of all of the independents and crossover Democrats, unless Barack is the nominee, I give you two sentences which are direct quotes from John McCain which should be played on TV over and over again before the election: "We will be in Iraq for 100 years."  AND: "My friends, there will be more wars... and more wars ...and more wars.
I think it is time for the party activist to realize what it takes to win.  But I think the fact that voters who have not participated in the past are doing so in huge numbers should be paid closer attention to.  One youth put four cartoons to together to address four main areas.

The presidential candidates are asking each of us to consider who will make the greatest impact. Will Obama, Clinton, Romney or McCain be your voice to declare war on your most important issue?

When trying to market or promote your brand does Google give you a fair shake?

The federal government is giving billions to not grow food and people cannot feed their families.
Foreclosure, has been a real drain on everyones credit access, the investors do not want the homes. If the owner is found and wants to auction the house under foreclosure instead of negotiating with the home ownerr, they are not prevented from bidding to buy your home for its true value.
http://mynonprofitwebsite.com/blog/category/emo-cartoon/
I have seen some comments about Hillary being able to stand up to the republican machine and some express doubt that Obama can. First of all, the Republican attack machine was built on attacking the Clinton's. They are very comfortable doing so and will NEVER run out of new ammunition. Second, the attack machine only garners support and credibility when the subjects like Clinton, Kerry, Pelosi, etc. have failed to prove their integrity on critical progressive issues like war, diplomacy, poverty, and so on. People have gotten the sense from these Democrats that they are out of touch with the common folks that they fight for--that they are rich but fight for the poor; that they want to pull out of Iraq, but they voted to authorize the invasion. This argument can NOT be made about Obama. He fought on the streets, opposed the war, and he doesn't come from an elite family or household. He is a self-made progressive who has consistently sacrificed his private interests for his view of the public good. This is about electability and if democrats want to win, we have to nominate someone who can expose the Republican attack machine for what it is--a senseless and partisan defender of the status-quo. If Hillary turns up the heat as she promises, all that it will do is give unnecessary credibility to the Republican attack machine that is predicated entirely upon a Clintonian Democrat on the ticket. If we redraw the map, we win. Obama is the only one who turns out unprecedented numbers of young people, independents, first time voters, African-Americans, and disaffected Republicans. Clinton will turn out the same old democrats from the same old states.


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