First thoughts: A Dem split decision

Posted: Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:18 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A split decision: The Clinton and Obama campaigns engaged in a furious game of spin before Super Tuesday, but Obama might have put it best when he said on TODAY and Morning Joe yesterday that it would end up being a split decision. In fact, after they traded state after state last night, it reminded us of “Rocky I” -- lots of drama, lots of punches landed and received, and ultimately a draw. And just like with that movie, we’re now headed to a sequel to find a true winner. It looks like Obama, by the narrowest of margins, won last night’s delegate hunt. By our estimates, he picked up 840 to 849 delegates versus 829-838 for Clinton; the Obama camp projects winning by nine delegates (845-836). He also won more states (13 to Clinton’s eight; New Mexico is still outstanding), although she won the most populous ones (California and New York). And Obama’s argument that he might be the most electable Democrat in a general election was bolstered by the fact that he won nine red states versus four for Clinton. Yet with Clinton’s overall superdelegate lead (259-170, based on the lists they've released to us), and when you toss in the 63-48 lead Obama had among pledged delegates going into Super Tuesday, it appears Clinton has about 70 more overall delegates than Obama does (1140-1150 for Clinton versus 1070 to 1080 for Obama). It’s that close, folks…

VIDEO: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama talks with TODAY's Matt Lauer Tuesday about the pending Super Tuesday vote.

*** Obama’s opportunity and challenge: The calendar for the next couple of weeks favors Obama, as we head into February 9 (Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington State); February 10 (Maine); February 12 (DC, Maryland, Virginia); and February 19 (Hawaii and Wisconsin). In fact, in a conference call it held with reporters on Monday, the Clinton campaign seemed like it was conceding those states when it didn’t mention those states, but said it was looking ahead toward March 4 (Ohio and Texas; don't forget Rhode Island and Vermont) after Super Tuesday. Obama can certainly feel good about last night: He went toe-to-toe with Clinton in a Super Tuesday contest that once seemed to favor her. And he’s on pace to have a significant financial advantage over Clinton. But as the AP’s Ron Fournier writes, “Obama still has much to prove. The potential for setbacks and mistakes is high.” At some point, the question will have to be asked: When or how can he put her away? Of course, last night proves that Clinton faces that very same question regarding Obama.

*** How nasty will it get? Now that a majority of the country has voted and the delegate battle is THISCLOSE, the likelihood that both campaigns will decide it's ok to go negative is high. Someone needs a knockout, particularly Clinton since she appears to have the bigger resource problem. The good news for Clinton is that the burden of expectations is on Obama; any victory between now and March 4 for Clinton will be deemed an upset and Clinton has fed off of hyped-up Obama expectations. Clinton's camp needs to peel away white men from Obama; Obama needs to peel away downscale women from Clinton. Appealing to both key demographic groups could easily lead the campaigns down the low road. By the way, what will have a greater effect on the media regarding what happened last night? The results from this weekend's events or the first wave of national polls? If Clinton is ahead in the national primary (which, by the way, should that include states that already voted? What say you pollsters?), does that mean Clinton won Super Tuesday? If Obama continues to be stronger than Clinton against McCain, does that tip things to Obama? Bottom line, as important as the delegate fight is, the national polls and the C.W. they create will be very influential, particularly with superdelegates, who are finger-in-the-wind deciders at this point.

*** McCain’s win and Huck’s surprise: If the name of the game is accumulating delegates, then McCain was definitely the winner on the GOP side last night. NBC’s delegate total for last night (as of 3:15 am ET) was McCain 423, Romney 130, Huckabee 102, and Paul 5. The big surprise of the night was Huckabee’s sweep of the South. We knew that he would end up hurting Romney in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia, but we didn’t anticipate him winning those states. And as a result, McCain ended up having a good night -- but not a great one. The attention now turns to Romney, who won Massachusetts, Utah, and the caucuses in the Mountain West, but little else. California was Romney’s shot at a symbolic win to keep his White House hopes alive. But he fell short there, and looking at the calendar, it’s hard to see where Romney could pull off a significant win to wrest the front-runner title away from McCain. Romney has to make the decision to stick in this race to March 4 (and spend in very expensive states, i.e. Texas and Ohio). This isn't about testing whether he can stop McCain in Virginia; the decision he's making today is about staying in for another four weeks.

*** Inside the exits: Looking inside the Democratic exit polls (per the last wave we saw), it is striking to us just how predictable Clinton and Obama voters are. Nationally, Clinton won among women (52%-45%), and Obama won among men (53%-42%). Obama won big among voters ages 17-29 (59%-38%), and Clinton won big among those 60 and older (55%-38%). Obama won the African-American vote (82%-16%), while Clinton won Latinos (61%-37%). Obama did seem to do better among whites (with 43% of that vote); in fact, Obama won white men (49%-44%). And Obama won among those making $200,000 or more (52%-46%), while Clinton won among those making less than $50,000. On the GOP side, McCain narrowly beat Romney among self-identified Republicans (38%-37%), among moderates (52%-24%), and those who said they were “somewhat conservative” (40%-36%). Yet among those identifying themselves as “very conservative,” it was Romney 48%, Huckabee 26%, and McCain 19%.

*** Just asking: As the Washington Post asks today: What if George Allen hadn’t uttered the word “Macaca” back in 2006? It’s likely that he and McCain would be the GOP finalists right now…

*** London calling: And speaking of McCain, Sky News is reporting that he will be passing through London on Friday, and has requested a meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

*** On the trail: Not surprisingly, there isn’t that much activity the day after Super Tuesday. Clinton appears to be down; McCain holds a press conference in Phoenix before heading to DC; Obama also holds a press conference -- in Chicago -- before traveling to DC and then Baton Rouge, LA; and Romney is in Boston, where he has no public events.

Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 6 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 27 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 272 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 349 days

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Comments

ho hum....zzzz...more corpocracy no matter who "is chosen"...government of, by, and for the corporations

terry edmonds wa (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:27 AM)

Excellent campaign! Congratulations to Senator Obama. Hoping the momentum continues. Time to turn the page, and have someone new in the White House.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:30 AM)

Well, however the numbers fall, Bill took away any chance that Hilary will ever get this black woman's vote!

Bill showed his true colors by being the first to bring race into this contest, and I for one will not forget it.

Sorry Obama, this unity thing has to work both ways.

Nobody likes feeling duped and used for another's own selfish gain.

Blacks trusted you, Bill!

Now, Hilary turns to the Hispanics, to use them, with the larger population, more votes, while you, with your words, treat the Blacks that supported you all those years like insignificant, foolish believers of "fairytales".

Well, it was the Black "fairytale" hope, dream, belief and trust in you that helped carry you throughout your career, that welcomed you, and even still admired you through all of your past betrayals, only to be, ourselves, betrayed by your arrogance.

You have reopened those slow healing wounds of distrust. They are newly fresh once again and they will burn long and deep.

No, I cannot support you this time. I may be only one vote, not missed, nor noticed, but perhaps remembered.

PLEASE...close the door behind you.

CN,Nashville,TN (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:31 AM)

"...among those identifying themselves as “very conservative,” it was Romney 48%, Huckabee 26%, and McCain 19%."

Bob - NC (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:33 AM)

John McCain has made every dirty deal he could make to try and get the Republican nomination. The dirty trick express was in full swing in West Virginia last night and I am sure it has a full list of stops all over the country.

Joe Hughes Boca Raton, FL (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:34 AM)

One key point is that Obama managed to stay slightly behind. That's actually a good thing to not be targeted as the front-runner, as the schedule moves to states that heavily favor him. This whole day couldn't have been better for Obama as I see things.

What will be funny all day is to watch the Clinton supporters scraping for some sort of positive spin. Narrow wins in the NE (including huge delegate bleeding in NY), and getting trounced in some key states like GA, MN, and KS. Getting shut out of the Pac-NW. A narrow win in CA while watching eroding support by Latinos. White men with Confederate flags on their pickup trucks actually voting for a black man in the South.

So where exactly is the good news? Where is the devastating blow that Billary supporters were promising on Feb. 5?

Billy, Normal, IL (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:36 AM)

Hillary's Health Care Plan forces people to buy crappy insurance from corporate health insuance agencies. Her Health Care proposal was written by the Lobby. She takes more money from them than anyone in the race.

It's kind of like forcing starving people to buy happy meals at mcdonalds and then garnishing their wages if they can't aford it.

Obama's plan focuses on bringing the cost down so that people and businesses aren't throwing ridiculous amounts of money at the health insurance agencies that turn around and fund Hillary Clinton's campaign.

adam/Brooklyn New York City (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:36 AM)

The CNN website says Clinton has 783 delegates, Obama 709. CBS says its Clinton 900 to Obamas' 824. I keep hearing that Super Delegates are elected officials like Congresspeople, but how do they get apportioned? I'm so confused!

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:37 AM)

It's all a setup for the convention where Gore will be the nominee. He will be "reluctantly called to serve his country because we have asked him to and what better way to save the planet than to establish the United States as a leader in curbing Global Warming" The freaking progressive, ignorant, pampered, rich media have elevated Mr. Gore to an almost holy status which will give him the credibility to run and win. There is no way we are voting a black man or a woman as president before one of them does a stint as vice president. Just like there will never be a president "Huck". Let's be honest about this. America are all racists and chauvinists in one way or another. Progressives just force themselves to overcome it, sometimes irrationally. So when it comes to the private booth, many will fall back on their truth and not vote for either as president out of fear. And rightfully so. Obama is as disingenuous as the come. Hillary is so full of hubris to think she has any ability, experience, or temperment to run the most powerful nation on earth. Gore will be a welcome candidate for the Dems. AND if that weren't enough.....the Global Warming hoax has penetrated even some conservative minds and the conservative candidates are lackluster at best. McCain:Scary, Romney:Cult-eyed Mormon Paul:Too Odd Huckabee:Bumpkin Giulani:Prick Hunter:Who? Look, I'm not passing these judgements, so don't get on me. I'm just saying I think this is how the country feels. Because of all of it, even some conservatives, who are scared of Global Warming, would rather deal with 4 years of Gore until they can come up with someone better. Howard Dean and the party is planning it this way. An inconvenient truth is a campaign film by Gore to establish him as holy. Obama and Mrs. Bill Clinton will be deadlocked at the convention and the only way to get a mandate for their candidate will be Gore. And he is SO holy that everyone will bow before his greatness and we will all be SO honored that he has stepped down from his Mt. Olympus of Warming that he will wind the nomination in a landslide and the election pretty handily. There is a huge base of conservatives that just can't stand him, but not enough to overcome the "Global Warming scared" moderates. I admire Gore's political acumen, he is a smart guy and he's played it beautifully. He hasn't had to spend a dime, nor will he have to spend very much. Why would he when he's got Spielberg, the NY Times and every other form of media outlet singing his praises already under the guise of "Global Warming".

Gore is it....I promise you that.

John Muoio (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:37 AM)

Obama, Obama, Obama. That is all we hear from YOU Chuck; in addition to every negative spin, and dirt you can dig up against Hillary. It turns my stomach. Just Remember Chuck, and I think this is what you want, Obama, can not, I repeat, can not win in November if the Democrats are divided. And that is exactly what you and the MSNBS/Obama network are doing to us with your bias, Hillary hating, one sided reporting. You people are no better than the Republican attach machine. I am sick of MSNBC.

If Hillary wins this thing, I hope she boycotts your show and never appear on it while she is president.

Umakemesick, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:38 AM)

Barack Hussein Obama is a glorious speaker. He has much charisma and people are attracked to him, even though if you listen closly he is saying nothing of value. He is a major charlatan. If elected he will be way in over his head.

Vote for Hillary

Sharon Stone (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:39 AM)

If you want and mean little troll for president, vote for John McCain.

Bonnie Vernal Utah (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:40 AM)

This proves Obama can not win a general. Latins would go to McCain in a general. They will not vote strongly for Obama. Republicans and independant whites will overwhemingly vote against Obama. There are no cuacases in the general. Obama will be stuck with the black vote and about 30% of the white vote. He may split the latin vote, but it will not be enough. Asians will not go for Obama. He would be a big loser in the general. As a now former Obama supported, last night made it clear. The only way the dems can take back the white house is if the ticket is Hillary/Obama. This is an unbeatable ticket. Hillary can win it on her own by a sliver, but Obama unfortubatly can not. He would lose big. Dems, please look at the big prize. Clinton/Obama wins it.

tany k, st. cloud, mn (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:41 AM)

Hillary has been the national limelight since 1992 when Bill ran and won for POTUS. Obama became a public figure in August of 2004. They battled to a national draw last night. Given those obvious variables, I dare say, you make the call First Read. Because I believe that the upside is with BO, not HRC.

Blaine (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:44 AM)

Nice I knew Obama would win mores States and more Delegates.... the money situation is optimal and he still has the momentum... What a difference 2 weeks makes.

Wish we could have takened California but winning more delegates across all states is ultimately better.

Still congrats to Clinton on that big win in Cali.

Good to be a democrat

mike (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:45 AM)

Nothing changes today on the MSNBC spin machine for Obama. Wow, he won more states including Alaska/N.D./Del./Idaho!

Nice touch Zogby showing Obama up by 13% in Ca. Survey USA had it right by 10%. Same pollers who tried and lost their way with the numbers in NH!

A good night for the Kennedy clan in Boston. Ted and his folks can now go back to the sixties where they belong!

MSNBC still trying to spin the delegate count but the TRUTH is that Hillary Clinton leads in delegates.

Hillary Clinton has a better health care plan. A better plan for the economy and a better way out of Iraq!

Oh, we didn't watch MSNBC for a second last night - 90% CNN and 10% Fox (ugh). How did Chris and Keith do?
Just kidding - who cares about those spin meisters!

Fred C Dobbs, Sierra Madre, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:47 AM)

MSNBC likes to tout Obama's win in red caucus states. Really? So he could win in the fall there? Not likely. Seems to me that Obama cannot win the general election because he can't win a majority of the white vote even in the democratic primary states,nor a majority of the Hispanic vote, therefore in the fall should he be the nominee, he cannot win. Say hello to Pres. John Cainbo oops! McCain. There aren't enough black voters for Obama to win. Sorry kiddies. The only hope the democrats have is to elect Hillary as their nominee. She at least has a fighting chance. Obama will never be Pres. Not this year anyway.

Minda Lillie La Follette, TN (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:48 AM)

Time to add to the timeline days to the convention.

Obama was not suppose to win NY, NJ, or CA what he did was get closer than the polls. He did upset Clintons in CT and MO. Otherwise it was even. Will the media follow the Clintons on that the next states don't matter only OH, TX,...

The Clintons will continue to gain in Super Delegates. But the pledged delegates to Edwards are the ones that could make the difference. (Richardson will pledge his to Clintons)

David - MO (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:49 AM)

I'm still thrilled about last night. I'm still stunned by some of Obama's wins. I sat here last night, watching them call states for him and it didn't really dawn on me until I was tabulating them for my blog. I was just blown away that in some states, Obama "from nowhere" could go from a 28 point deficit 2.5 months ago, to winning by 25%. To beat the Clinton's and their entrenched and extensive noise machine. Despite their race-baiting, and lies about Sen. Obama's present votes and other smear, he won in states that he wasn't projected to win. As of a week ago, he had NY and IL as possible wins. All 8 of Clinton's states she was expected to win even before Iowa. She still had to spend a lot of money and time in those states. And just looking at the map and the number of votes, Obama could beat any of the GOP candidates. Clinton would be like John Kerry and get the coasts. Yes, it's was a very good night.

faboo mama (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:54 AM)

I note that it is totally WRONG for anyone in the media to start suddenly reporting super delegate totals. All along the totals have been based on delegates won by the voting. Obama has been a bit ahead since Iowa, and he has EXTENDED his lead every voting day since. Tie in NH, win in NV, win in SC, overall win on super tuesday. Ultimately the superdelegates will have to follow the voting trend. Thus, the number of delegates won should be reported, ESPCIALLY since that has been what is reported to date, and it is unfair to suddenly shift. Shifting would give the impression Clinton gained on super tues. But in fact she LOST ground (though just a tiny bit).

Geoff in Brooklyn (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:54 AM)

Now the Democrats will begin to consume each other. It iwll be nice to see them tear themselves apart.

Gary Treadwell, Texas (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:55 AM)

Don't walk into defeat America!

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NATION/476091143/1001
"The senator from Arizona beats the senator from New York in 14 of 17 head-to-head polls taken since Dec. 6, but he wins just five of 17 against the senator from Illinois over the same period. Analysts say Mrs. Clinton is so divisive that she would drive moderates and some independents to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama, conversely, could draw from the pool of supporters who have delivered wins to Mr. McCain in a host of presidential primaries.
"

It's about more than change. It's about being able to deliver on that change in November, not from ANOTHER democratic defeat, but from a monumentous win!

Obama - Ready to deliver the win on Day Zero!

Ron, TX (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:55 AM)

Obama is the future. Clinton is the past.

"Obama won big among voters ages 17-29 (59%-38%), and Clinton won big among those 60 and older (55%-38%)"

PEM, Central Jersey (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:55 AM)

Who is the BEST candidate for the DEMOCRATS in NOVEMBER???

BARACK OBAMA!!

Why?

We know whoever the Democratic candidate is they will win New York and California. So Hillary's wins in those two are not that conclusive.

But in order to WIN, the Democrats MUST win toss-up states like Missouri and Iowa. Obama has proven he can win these. He is competitive in states like Georgia. He, of course, would win in most of the New England states. He will win Illinois. He will be competitive in states like Colorado.

If you look at the BIG PICTURE Obama will be much more likely to WIN in the fall. HE IS A UNITER - NOT A POLARIZER! HE WILL NOT GALVANIZE THE GOP BASE THE WAY HILLARY WILL! He attracts INDEPENDENTS and even some REPUBLICANS! So let's not become so taken with wins by Hillary in New York and CA. I think EITHER DEMOCRAT will win those. MISSOURI is a key indicator. And Obama won that. Plus, he will make some Southern states competitive. He'll bring Illinois easily, as well as be competitive in places like Colorado.

BOTTOM LINE - OBAMA HAS PROVEN HE HAS BROAD GEOGRAPHIC APPEAL - AND APPEAL TO MORE THAN THE CORE DEMOCRATIC BASE! OBAMA WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER - HILLARY CANNOT.

Jane, Cary, NC (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:58 AM)

TO: All the Obama supports and Hillary Haters, It was clear last night that the Republicans will win in November. listen to all the hate coming from Democrats. You all make me sick.

Umakemesick, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:00 AM)

Hillary won California because of Latinos and Asians, who, for whatever their reasons, voted for Senator Clinton in almost 2 to 1 ratios. Despite all the talk about white/black race issues, the real race issues appear not to be white/black (look at the massive wins Obama racked up in lilly-white states last night) but perhaps in the latino and Asian communities.

Obama's surge here was real the past few weeks and should be troubling to Clinton supporters. He won the Bay Area, the most highly-educated area in the country.

California Independent (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:01 AM)

The race isnt over yet and no matter what a lot of ous will go democratic before supporting a foot soldier.....I would even support huk if he get there...Obama has a real good shot over clinton..No matter what you can thank the media for your canadates.........Change Still can be done....Yes we can

Russell Wells, Maine (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:02 AM)

Obama lost big time.

You believe utah, alaska, n.dakota, and ks are going to vote democratic?

sure.

Obama should resign

Tuck, realityville, KS (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:02 AM)

My big concerns about the Dems is that they will bloody each other leading up to a possible brokered convention allowing McCain to be the nominee early and sit back and allow the Democrats to beat each other up. Rommey needs to hang it up unless he likes to blow his own money by all means go for it.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:02 AM)

The party is going to have to make a decision and these super delegates are going to have to decide to either vote with their personal interests or vote with their state/country. Obama has won across the heartland,south, West, and NE...what more do they want. New Mexico is still in play so late..that's a suprise. Clinton won the traditional coastal states..and not by large margins...that just does not impress me.

CJ (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:03 AM)

Barack lost all the big states with the largest population. I don't watch Msnbc any longer for they are bias and very negative. As far as the Red states, Democrats will never win in general election. So have some kool aid when the Barck campaign spins you. Congradulation Hillary. No one with a thinking mind pays attention to these people. The big fuss over Ophrah, the Kennedys. The media loved it. Whos Laughing now?

A Schanker (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:03 AM)

BTW CN of Nashville, you have believed the Obama lies about race. He is using this. Obama brought race in the door when he announced just like Hillary brought gender. Bill Clinton never said anything racist, so your feelings are not justified, but it seems blacks always play victim. Bill Clinton actually cared about the black community, too bad you all forgot that when one of your own came along. This race thing is all ginned up by the Obama campaign and the attack dog press. They used race and convinced you he (Clinton) was racist? You are being duped, or is it you are being just the racist your community is proving to be? It is clear that as a group, the black voters are voting for their race in this election, but be careful what you wish for, you just might get it, a candidate who has no chance of winning in the fall. You of all people should know you live in a racist country, that hasn't changed all that much and will take a few more years before it does.

Minda Lillie La Follette, TN (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:03 AM)

Just some numbers crunching. Clinton recieved only 130,000 more votes in all the states yesterday. The DEMS received 13.8 million votes and the GOP received 7.9 million votes in common states yesterday. It does not look good for the GOP in the fall if this keeps up. Even GOP states like AR, GA, MO, ND, OK and TN had more DEM voters than GOP.

Keep up the momentum Senator Obama. Yes we can!

Chuck, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:03 AM)

Chuck Todd -

How many votes in CA were absentee and what was the breakdown for Hillary and Obama?

Did most of the late-deciders break for Obama or for Clinton?

Please find out and let us know! Thanks!

Alice Dobson, Concord, NH (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:06 AM)

Obama has opened those wounds for sure. Clintons didnt start the race card he did and on purpose to neutralize clintons. Smart move,he blamed clintons for it. Old political box trick and it worked. There was enough leariness left in our land, black americans were glad to believe it. Bill Clinton did a lot for race issues but people needed to think he was playing race card so they could leave there loyalty to him and back Obama.To me this says a lot about your leader ,Obama, no loyalty will stand in his way. What he will do for you he will do to you.Use your mind. This isnt the end of your dream but watch what you ask for.

John Doe (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:06 AM)

well mr john muoio i have been tossing this same theory around since the week before christmas when mathews and olberman started to really slant every broadcast toward obama....running edwards out early and causing every debate host to ask the clinton questions in such a way that she can't answer,...she has to defend herself...while tossing creampuffs at obama.....it is getting sickening to watch.

anyway, i was hoping to see another opinion as yours especially now in the wake of edwards removing himself....this convention will be very interesting to say the least....these 2 candidates better tread lightly because the big test will come 4 years from now and the winner could be the one who best learns from his or her mistakes....go gore!!!!

justanotherdummycrat, Norwich, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:06 AM)

To: CN,Nashville,TN (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:31 AM)

With statements like that, we will have a republican in office in November. Keep up the good work!

Umakemesick, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:06 AM)

If you want and mean little troll for president, vote for John McCain.
Bonnie Vernal Utah (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 9:40 AM)

----------------
Thanks for that post, it made me chuckle this morning. And, it finally gave me a description of McCain I've been trying to come up with for days.

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:06 AM)

Right on Terry E of wa it has always been about corporate greed and the ignorant masses who flock like obediant sheep to vote for politicians who promise everything and deliver nothing exept pork.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:09 AM)

Hispanics go to McCain in a general against Obama?! Yeah, right. Now matter how soft Hispanic support is for Obama (and he did better than he was supposed to have done - 30% was the advertised threshold), the Hispanic vote isn't going to a Republican for many, many years, even if McCain is the nominee.

Adam, Pittsburgh, PA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:10 AM)

I said it before. If Obama wins, he will loss CA in Nov. Most latinos and asians will vote McCain. I don't think any dem can win the general election w/o CA.

Dong, LA, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:10 AM)

Quite the underdog achievment.

Comming out of SC the buzz was Clinton was leading by 20pts in all the Super Tuesday States. To acheive what Obama has against a well oiled 20 year old political machine is amazing.

If the voting patterns on the above demographics hold who would be ahead in delagates on March 4th?

nadeem (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:11 AM)

Even if McCain is a mean, little troll (and he is not), he is not a whiny little bitch. NOBODY is going to mess with McCain when he is elected President. He has guts.

I dedicate "Tears of a Clown" to Miss Hillary and a big bottle of Valium.

Southern Boy (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:13 AM)

This proves that Obama can not win GEneral Election. Red states win is useless because Republicans have bigger following in those states that is why they are red states. They will go for McCain, even the independents.

If Obama can not win the blue states, what is he going to do in General Election? Without Hillary, Obama is nothing in blue states.

Electoral Votes Matter (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:14 AM)

Report from the small caucus state of Kansas.
At a rural National Guard Armory where in 2004 there were 40 voters, last night 183 people came out on a cold and snowy night. The crowd had to be moved to a larger room and as the crowd broke into Hillary and Obama camps, there were 3 undecided and 4 Edwards voters. 2 stayed with Edwards, (ultimately saying that they would back Huckabee?) while the rest went 4 to Obama and 1 to Hillary. Many of the Obama supporters had driven over an hour to get to the caucus, while most of the Hillary supporters where from the local area. The Obama leaders were better prepared, with signs, buttons, and leaflets describing the candidate's positions and history, while Hillary's leaders only had a few signs. Obama's supporters were more diverse, old and young, a few blacks (5), and even a Dutch woman originally from South Africa. Hillary's supporters were mostly older (many 60+ years old), mostly female, with a few very young 17-18 year old voters. There was no pressure on either side, just good spirited debating for the undecided and Edwards voters. Really only 1 Hillary supporter (the leader I guess) to try to convince the non-aligned voters, while several Obama supporters joined the debate. In the end it was 100 for Obama and 81 for Hillary. The final delegate count was 3 for Obama and 2 for Hillary. From what I observed, the Obama folks were better prepared at a grass root level, and were more committed driving farther, and more animated during the process. Although it was hard to tell who were the actual leaders, it seemed like there were 4 Obama organizers to 1 Hillary organizer.

Al, KS (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:15 AM)

Of course, Chuck and the crew continue their Barak infomercial on a full-time basis. If it weren't for the media's relentless Clinton bashing and Barak gushing, this thing would have been settled last night. We might have had a winning ticket by now: Clinton-Obama.

But there's other news. Memo to the Kennedys: Dems aren't that in to you; we don't accept that your word is our command. You'd deliver MA and CA for Barak...? Just check the final numbers.

Ultimate message: Teddy, Take your red nose and cirrhotic liver and hit the bricks. You've been DISMISSED!

SJS, Kansas City, MO (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:16 AM)

Why do all the people who claim to be so sick of MSNBC keep coming back to post?

All in all, Obama is in a great position. Roughly tied in delegates, and only trailing a bit because of Clinton's headstart with super delegates. And he has resources to compete whereas it seems that's a question about the Clinton campaign.

Who would have thought it? Practically tied after Tsunami Tuesday, and people wondering if Clinton has the resources for the long haul.

Also, does anyone really think this super delegate lead will hold if Obama leads in vote-generated delegates after the last state is counted? Talk about risking a party fracture.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:16 AM)

Thanks to First read we all can express our free and independent thoughts. Thanks first read for being here for all people with different opinions and affiliations.
Also thanks to all who voted in Super Tuesday especially those who voted for their candidate despite all of the rhetoric written at first read and those awful on air pundits that asked you to give your vote to their candidate, because your candidate was not liberal or not conservative enough to win the nomination. Every citizen has the right to vote and express his or her desire for this country’s leadership, even if it is to vote for a Ralph Nader or some other minor candidate.

TEC-spring-TX (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:17 AM)

Someone in a thread here yesterday suggested that music says it best, I agree:
---------------------------------------------
Romney: "Can't Buy Me Love" (Beatles)
McCain: "Old & In the Way" (Jerry Garcia)
Hillary: "Stand By Your Man" (Loretta)
Barack: "Time Has Come Today" (Chambers Bros)
----------------------------------------------
Bonus tracks:
Dick Cheney: "Take the Money & Run" (Steve Miller)
George W: "Whiskey River" (Willie Nelson)

JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:19 AM)

Man, can we knock off the Latinos will not vote for Obama meme? These are all Democratic voters, and they are voting for Hillary largely off of her history with that population and a failure of Obama to make strong inroads thus far (one exit poll I was reading showed a split actually between primarily english-speaking Hispanics and those who primarily followed spanish language channels, with Obama doing very well in the English-speaking group). It's mainly about name recognition and votes that are FOR Hillary, not anti-Obama. The more people hear and see him, the higher his number go. They'll all be onboard in the general when he's the nominee.

Michael (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:19 AM)

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