Who won the popular vote?

Posted: Wednesday, February 06, 2008 12:51 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: Democrats, 2008, Feb. 5

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
With almost all of the voting in, here’s the popular vote calculation for the Democrats:

Clinton 48.97% (6,967,302)
Obama 48.04% (6,835,447)

Based on totals on MSNBC.com, there are still some outstanding votes. There is only 82% reporting in Minnesota; Arkansas is 92% in; Arizona is 93% in; California is 96%; Illinois is 97%; New Mexico is 98%; Alaska looks like delegate votes not raw vote.

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Here is a state by state breakdown of actual votes (taken from MSNBC website at 11:30 am EST) for the GOP. Not all precincts are 100% reported, but it gives you an idea what is going on with the total vote. See numbers below: Fact, McCain (roughly 4.8 million) has twice as many votes as Huckabee (roughly 2.4 million), and Romney (roughly 4.1 million) nearly twice as many votes as Huckabee. When looking at a rough meta-analysis (Avg percent of all state voting percentages) by each state, Romney leads with 37%, McCain with 30%, Huckabee with 20%, and Paul with 7% (others - 6%). However, where it counts most (delegates), McCain is winning.

State Huckabee McCain Paul Romney
Iowa 40,841 15,559 11,817 29,949
New Hampshire 26,768 88,466 18,303 75,343
Wyoming 0 0 0 8
Michigan 139,699 257,521 54,434 337,847
Nevada 3,616 5,651 6,087 22,649
South Carolina 132,440 147,283 16,054 67,132
Florida 259,735 693,508 62,063 598,188
Alabama 225,659 206,595 15,052 99,836
Alaska 2,548 1,804 1,955 5,126
Arizona 40,497 213,461 19,160 154,071
Arkansas 120,776 40,784 9,762 26,878
California 258,683 947,509 95,869 760,029
Colorado 7,266 10,621 4,670 33,288
Connecticut 10,588 78,705 6,084 49,809
Delaware 7,706 22,626 2,131 16,344
Georgia 325,602 302,895 27,893 289,118
Illinois 146,349 418,005 44,521 253,451
Maine 268 958 851 2,362
Massachussetts 20,260 203,576 13,080 253,411
Minnesota 12,191 13,228 9,437 25,253
Missouri 185,627 194,304 26,445 172,564
Montana 245 358 400 625
New Jersey 45,625 309,622 26,861 158,533
New York 65,521 310,084 38,838 168,474
North Dakota 1,947 2,224 2,082 3,490
Oklahoma 111,996 123,094 11,166 83,119
Tennessee 188,034 173,389 30,594 133,898
Utah 4,054 15,264 8,295 255,218
West Virginia 567 12 0 521
Total Votes: 2,385,108 4,797,106 563,904 4,076,534
Avg Votes/State: 82,245 165,417 19,445 140,570

Wayne (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 12:57 PM)

amazing talk about a dead heat. You couldnt get it any closer. Something has to give.

Lynette, NYC (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 12:58 PM)

Sorry Domenico, but this is a garbage post.

It means absolutely nothing. You can't call the popular vote when its this close before all votes are in. You still have large chunks of votes out in states that are heavily slanted to either candidate. Without those added in the numbers you list mean nothing. The actual 'winner' could go either way because of those uncounted. Clinton could gain a lot more, or Obama could pass her. It's poor reporting to even attempt to post those numbers now.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:03 PM)

From Slate.com not my words!

"Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns emerged from Super Tuesday with bragging rights. Clinton trounced Obama in Massachusetts, 56 percent to 41 percent. It was a thrashing that almost matched the one he gave her in South Carolina. She had been ahead in polls in the state, but for the last week, Barack Obama has had about the best press imaginable there. He was being compared often to JFK by Kennedy family members, who did everything but play touch football with him on the lawn. Obama also had the support of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

Clinton also won the toss-up state of New Jersey and the largest popular-vote prize in California, where she was able to stop Obama's movement with two crucial blocs of voters. She won Latino voters by 32 points even though Obama was endorsed by the state's largest Spanish-language newspaper. She won by 18 points among women despite a widely publicized rally attended by Michele Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and Caroline Kennedy, at which California first lady Maria Shriver made a surprise appearance and endorsement."

Ron, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:05 PM)

Super Tuesday was a collection of states that on balance looked to shape up well for Clinton; in late December she told George Stephanopoulos that the race would be over on Feb. 5. Instead she won the popular vote by less than 1% (looking at states and regions still out, that will probably come down a touch) and lost the delegate count and state count - indeed, there has not been a single primary day she has won the delegate count yet. She lost the swing states that should hold the most import for the general election - CO, IA, MO, and MN - most by significant margins.

It's true that she won all of the states that would have given Obama a knockout blow (CA, MA, AZ) by significant margins. But she needs a win in VA (LA, ME?) badly and absolutely must win OH, TX, and PA now, and at a major financial disadvantage to boot. If she can pull it off, she'd be the best nominee and I'll line up behind her despite my disgust with her campaign tacts. But that's a very big if.

John M., San Diego, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:06 PM)

I really think obama should win cause clinto doesnt support our state like obama could shes just like bush shes not gonna satisfy our state and plus she doesnt support gay and lesbian marriages people should have there own opionan not her and im only 14 years old and i dont like her

Pr (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:06 PM)

Well, so far there goes the argument in another thread that Obama won the popular vote.

Tiffany Portland, Oregon (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:08 PM)

Mark Thieme (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:11 PM)

How does this factor in caucuses vs. primaries? Taking the percentage of the vote in each state times the number of delegates per state, I get:

Obama 51.58% (828.4)
Clinton 48.82% (790.2)

Ted, Louisville, KY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:12 PM)

It's pretty darn close !
Two weeks ago, who would have thought that ?
Two weeks ago, it was Billary's race

But, now ?

February is Obama's Month !!
He has the money
He has the momentum
He has the endorsements
He has the leadership
He has the character
He has the wisdom

OBAMA '08
HONESTY, CHARACTER, LEADERSHIP

Anybody see a 'post Tsunami' national poll ?
NOW'S WHEN THEY MATTER !!

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:15 PM)

For Republicans, I get:

McCain 37.8% (371.5)
Romney 35.3% (346.5)
Huckabee 20.6% (202.2)
Paul 6.4% (63.2)

Ted, Louisville, KY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:16 PM)

Those numbers are about a million short of the truth, and they ignore how certain caucaus are counted, but if we pretend they are true, I guess that means Hillary Clinton lost Al Gore style.

Obama won the delegate count, "lost by a hair" in the popular vote.

Do we really want another Al Gore debacle? Hillary already has enormous trouble beating McCain in general election surveys.
http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NATION/476091143/1001

Ron, TX (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:16 PM)

More interesting numbers

Feb 5 voting:

Voters on democrat races: 15,130,728
Voters on republican races: 8,992,015

Hillary and Barack each got as many votes as nearly the entire Republican field combined.

B (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:18 PM)

What's more important than the breakdown of the popular votes among candidates is the difference between parties. The Democratic voters came out in much larger numbers than Republicans. This was true even in the south (except for Alabama), so the Democrats might have a chance of winning a few southern states in November.

Houston (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:18 PM)

Obama doesn't care if The Democratic Party is fractured after this primary season is over.
He only cares about himself.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:19 PM)

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:19 PM)

New Mexico has 17,000 write-in ballots to count. People who vote early tend to be older. They don't want to have to navigate the polls. Also, they are young mothers with children at home. They made up their minds a couple of weeks ago - before this race tightened so much.

Bionicwoman, Tucson, AZ (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:20 PM)

The msnbc popular vote calculation does not seem to include the popular vote in the caucus states properly. Remember, the results reported in caucus states are state/county delegate counts and not popular vote.

AAFromWA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:23 PM)

If you are a democrat and you want to beat John McCain, think carefully about who you vote for in the primaries. Recent polls show McCain beating Hillary in a general election. The candidate with overwhelming victories in the south, midwest and other traditionally 'red' areas is Obama. He can campaign where she can't, and he brings in many more new voters, independent voters and crossover republicans. He cannot be accused of "flip-flopping" on the key issue of Iraq, as Hillary will be. McCain will indeed unite his party (especially if Hillary is the nominee), and they will have a good chance to win unless we put up our strongest challenger: Obama. Voting for Obama should be a simple matter of pragmatism for democrats. We need to win, and we need to win big. The stakes are too high to take a chance on Hillary.

JB Hull, IA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:33 PM)

I've heard Obama's speeches and his writer and teleprompters serve him well and I am sure everyone can agree with the way he describes the world. But what is he going to do? Where is the beef? Too much fluff, I need action points. The country was duped with GW and his crew, now we need someone to do the job. We should all select someone just like we would choose a doctor for surgery. I would choose my doctor for experience not inspiration. I can get that at church every Sunday.

Courtney, Las Vegas NV (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:35 PM)

Tuesday, February 5, 2008 will go down in history as the night the Clinton train derailed.

Stopped.

Steam pouring out of the smoke stack, it just sits there and waits.

For Godot? No.

The Obama bullet train just swooshed by.

Toot.

Mark Thieme (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:11 PM)

__________________________________________________
You drinking and doing drugs with your friend Obama?
Obama is on the "LITTLE TRAIN THAT COULDN'T."

Tickets Please! (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:35 PM)

I also heard from a relative in N Mexico that the write in votes will eventually push the votes in Hillarys favor.

Chris Penn (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:39 PM)

California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona............

MASSACHUSETTS!!!!!! HILLARY WINS!

Women make Hillary strong!
Women are the majority!

HP Boston (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:41 PM)

Isn't it much more newsworthy that Obama will end up with more delegates from super tuesday (after CO, MO, ND release their delegate counts) than Clinton?

(i.e. check out CBS: http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml
)

Garrett, Seattle (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:41 PM)

Todd, see you put your man on the front page again. Did not see a picture of Hillary. You keep trying to spin it for Obama. Take eight of his wins yesterday and add South Carolina and you get nine RED STATES. some of these states have not voted democratic since joining the union of states. With a few exception for Carter, others have not voted democratic since the civil rights act of 1964. These nine states,some being cause states, the democratic base is black and they voted their. Nothing wrong with that, but when it comes to the general election these 9 states will vote republican. Todd thinks he so cute and smart. Makes snarky remarks about Clinton every chance he has. Remember, starting yesterday morning and all day long MSNBC keep pumping the Zogby poll. They had Obama up in California by 13 points. All the talking heads, Chris, Joe, Olbermann,Fineman and Tucker are all losers.Hilary won the big democratic states that count. She will also win the big states of Ohio, Texas and Pa. Contrary to how you try to spin this thing, based on the fact of MSNBC,NBC,Newsweek, FOX and CNN massive Clinton bias, this was a big win fo Hillary.

Gene brtton (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:42 PM)

Sierra, you have remained one of the most amusingly ignorant posters on this board. Sometimes I think your intellect rivals that of one Jerry.

You believe the polls when your useless candidate is up, and the second Hillary wins there's always some excuse (read whining) to downplay yet another state proving Hillary is the future.

Sorry Dean, Kerry, and all you other losers who say "The kids revolution" well look how wonderful Ron Paul is doing with all of his childrens' support.

They make up for 10% of the vote, and when Hillary wins older people hands down, and older people show up roughly 3-1 for young kids... not looking too good for Mr. flash in the pan, now is it?

Travis, Louisville, Ky. (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:43 PM)

How do we know the popular vote in caucus states? These were in general states that Obama carried with supermajorities...

DBH, Philly, PA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:43 PM)

Delegate Count
State Date Delegates Clinton Obama
Total - - 900 824
Super Delegates - 0 211 128
Latest delegate count from Realclear politics

Jay Link, Chicago, IL (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:46 PM)

Just as in the general election, popular vote doesn't matter, so you can stop hyperventilating, people.

Dale, Denver (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:46 PM)

farther down on this site a black woman said she would never vote for clinton because of Bills racist remarks.The media perpetuated this bs and the beugene robinson grabbed onto it shaming any black that did not vote for Obama.A touchy question that I have not read but heard is will white women vote for a black first lady?Just as importan as voting for a black male president.

HMT-MI (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:51 PM)

J. Merle - that one is really funny. The race is basically a tie, so its Obama's fault? He doesn't care about the party, and he only wants to deny Hillary her entitled nomination? Is that it?

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:52 PM)

To:Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:15 PM)
Not in california!

halfthevote, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:52 PM)

Regarding the post from J. Merle Stanley, "Obama doesn't care if The Democratic Party is fractured after this primary season is over," I must say that I wonder if you've noticed the young people involved in the campaign and the enthusiasm for both candidates. The electorate was already divided when Bill Clinton decided to compare Obama to Jesse Jackson. If Bill and Hillary Clinton are the party nominees, I'll be voting green. If you didn't want a divided electorate, you shouldn't have voted for the most polarazing figure in American politics. Obama cares about moving our country beyond the darkness of the Clinton's. Maybe you should join us. It's brighter here.

Drew, Brooklyn, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:53 PM)

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY: '...Obama doesn't care if The Democratic Party is fractured after this primary season is over. ...'

Maybe Billary should drop out, now
THAT would prevent a fracture of the party

At least, Billary should permanently stop her
RACE BAITING

That would help

OK, Merle ?

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:54 PM)

hillary clinton is arguably the worst thing that has ever happened to the democratic party, her perverse use of the race and gender card have divided the party like never before, she has taken more money from more lobbyists than any other candidate in the history of the united states all the while claiming to be the champion of the less fortunate, her campaign staff is a 'who's, who' of the most dishonest political operatives in washington d.c., this is the same classy individual that stole property from the whitehouse when she exited, and her touted experience was for the most part defending the same corporate entities that have raped the citizens of this country into the poorhouse, her financial history is cluttered with shady dealings some of which were never resolved, and you have the gall to speak of her as someone with integrity and scruples, spare me, her record speaks clearly for itself, she cannot win the general election if it is conducted lawfully, and she should not

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:56 PM)

PS

Last night Alameda and Contra Costa counties reported no votes (they RAN OUT of ballots. East Bay efficiency)
They are both SF Bay Area counties that should have HEAVY MAJORITIES for Obama

California may be closer than you think

(but still a disappointment)
Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:19 PM)

Hey Sierra - Berkeley/Oakland and South Alameda County are showing 0 counted in the SF Chronicle today are still being counted and they said Santa Cruz this morning....I think Clinton won - but it will be interesting to see Oakland and Berkeley and Santa Cruz totals - as these areas should favor Obama - he may aqueak out another delegate or two.

Over all - wow what a great night of Politics!:)

Independent in CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:56 PM)

Obama doesn't care if The Democratic Party is fractured after this primary season is over.
He only cares about himself.
J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:19 PM)
*****************************************************
Merle I hate to break it to ya, but Even if I have never heard of Barack Obama, I was never ever ever going to vote for Billary.

No, I am not a Repug, I am an left of center independent. I can tell you, there are a lot of like minded people out there thatwould feel the same way. The Clintons turn me off everytime they speak. I do not want another appearnce of a dynasty, I don't want anymore divisive politics, which means I don't want anymore Clintons or Bushes in office.

Jimmy CHICAGO (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:03 PM)

Democrats, we urge you to support the nominee of the Democratic convention in August. The Democratic party is candidate rich: Clinton with an obvious record that will return us to prosperity, and Obama with a stellar ability to fire people up. Either candidate will help us to leave the catastrophic Bush years behind, in a big way.

We were shocked to see every Republican candidate, at their debates, to stumble over each other, trying to prove how much like Bush they are.

Don't let pundits' hyperbole about Dem disarray fool you: we will win with either candidate in November.

Jcolo (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:05 PM)

I hope you guys read the First Read feedbacks.
The next few weeks look good for Barack, but Ohio and Texas have a lot of work ahead. Please consider two things that can really help:
1. More interviews on Univision and Spanish ads, both playing up Obama's father and his dream as an immigrant to the US, as well as Barack living overseas and learning a different culture and language. Immigration resonates.
2. In Ohio, schedule, ASAP, a Hardball College Tour show with Chris Matthews at Ohio State Univ. The young demographic and energy will sell, and free media coverage in Columbus doesn't hurt.

a message to obama camp (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:06 PM)

TIE

ITS A TIE PEOPLE. Cherry picking facts is moot. The net gain on either side was negligable. Call Super Tuesday a TIE!

Short term I think a tie benefits Obama more, just because of the next primaries... all in seemingly solid Obama territory: Louisiana (Caucus), Washington (Caucus), DC, Virginia, Maryland, Nebraska (Caucus), Maine (Caucus). He may gain momentum if he wins any/all into Ohio/Texas. But Hillary does know how to BUCK any momentum. So it'll be interesting. My money is on Obama.

Sean, Sterling, VA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:09 PM)

Ummm, the popular vote doesn't count...it's about who has the most delegates...sound familiar...electoral college...Bush v Gore...I think that if we are going to continue this national primary thing in the future, the Dems should switch to the winner takes all system used by the repukes ... this way, we have a clear cut winner sooner rather than later, and the nominee could get down to business campaigning in terms of the general election...does anyone disagree? If so, I would like to hear your opinion as to why the current system is good.

pat huntington ny (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:10 PM)

Hey!

What about Hillary's victory in the American Samoas!

Why isn't that getting any publicity!

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:15 PM)

"These nine states,some being cause states, the democratic base is black and they voted their. Nothing wrong with that, but when it comes to the general election these 9 states will vote republican."

...riiiight, Gene. Those giant black populations in CO, MN, ID, AK, UT, KS, and ND are obviously what put Obama over the top there.

Brilliant electoral strategy to write off CO and MN too. Those plus MO and OH are pretty much what the Dems can most easily pick up in the general.

Clinton said the race would be over on Feb. 5 and instead she lost the delegate count, the state count, and all of the critical swing states. I can see why it's so hard to spin yesterday as a win for Clinton.

John M., San Diego, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:15 PM)

To Sierra: You said "He has the endorsements". Yep, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry's endorsements in Massachusettes helped him so much, didn't they?????

Go Hillary!!

Sharon, Worcester, MA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:16 PM)

I am just so thrilled with the turnout numbers. I'm an Obama supporter, but if Clinton manages to get the nomination I'll have no qualms with supporting her. I don't believe either candidate aims to split the party, it's the supporters that are causing those issues. I think they'll both be willing to support the other regardless of the outcome. I'd love to see them run on the same ticket, but doubt that will happen. But boy would that get the entire spectrum of the democratic party to the polls in November!

CA - Ohio (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:17 PM)

I stopped saying this is Hillary Clinton's race....
I just call them The Clinton's now....

So it looks like the race will be settled in Texas. Obama should win Texas easily. There are not a lot of people who care about The Clinton's. I have seen more Ron Paul signs in everybody's yards then anything else. I'm still looking for my first The Clinton's bumper sticker or sign or button or billboard down here. If The Clinton's are going to score in South Texas, they had better get down here and get hot, they face a long hard battle here.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:17 PM)

In an AP Article reported this morning - Barack said that "if he winds up winning more delegates in voting than the former first lady, they "would have to think long and hard about how they approach the nomination when the people they claim to represent have said, 'Obama's our guy,'" he said."

MY QUESTION TO THIS JERK (SPEAKING OF BARACK OBAMA) -DOES THAT MEAN THAT TED KENNEDY AND JOHN KERRY ARE GOING TO BE CASTING A VOTE FOR HILLARY - BECAUSE THEIR PEOPLE - THE PEOPLE OF MA WENT WITH HILLARY NOT THE GOLDEN BOY BARACK...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!

Adam, Chicago, Illinois (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:17 PM)

Please note that 98% of the precincts in NM have reported. But, more than 10% of the actual vote is still being counted today (Wednesday). Most of the votes yet to be counted are from areas that should trend (some strongly so) to Obama. With HRC currently ahead by only 117 votes don't be surprised if Obama takes the popular vote by more than 2000 votes.

The Grand Panjandrum, New Mexico (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:19 PM)

Despite all of the spinning by Clinton lovers and Obama fans, Tuesday night was a great night for the democrats. The dems voted in record numbers and now we are all part of a historic election. Truly, this is democracy at its best. Regardless of who becomes the nominee, if you are a true dem and believe in the platform of the demorcatic party, then you need to support and vote for the nominee. Remember, John McCain wants to stay in Iraq until we win ...which could be another 8 years (or more). He now supports making the Bush Tax cuts permanent so the wealthy can become wealthier while the middles class continues to pay for it all ..... A vote for John McCain would be another 4 years of Bush policies.

RGO, California (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:27 PM)

A white male who voted for Hillary Clinton! As a political junkie, I listen carefully to all candidates. With Obama, I just hear platitudes. Inspiring rhetoric, yes, but not a lot of substance. Nice rhetoric sound familiar to you? Remember George Bush and "kinder, gentler foreign policy?" This time I want a hands-on president who won't have to or be inclined to pass off the real decision-making to subordinates. Hillary fits that bill to a tee!!!

earl paisley (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:31 PM)

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