Adviser: McCain has it wrapped up

Posted: Wednesday, February 06, 2008 12:56 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, McCain, Feb. 5

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Speaking with reporters today, McCain adviser Charlie Black said, "To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them -- all of them -- to get to 1,191. Now you can't do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you'd have to get 100% if the vote to get them all.

"It's virtually impossible for Romney or Huckabee to be the nominee just based on the arithmetic," Black added. "I see it as virtually impossible. I'm superstitious like my boss, I don't want to say anything's impossible, but it's virtually impossible on the arithmetic."

EMAIL THIS

Comments

The voters are not stupid. They saw Flip Flop Mitt for what he was, a phony panderer who once disavowed Reagan, voted for Tsongas, ran to the left of Ted Kennedy and is trying to buy the election.

Esteban Rolando (Detroit, Mich) (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:04 PM)

Black is likely correct in his assumption of McCain winning the GOP. However, as stated elsewhere, caucus delegates can and do at times change their vote. Some of the 775 delegates cited could change. The bigger question of McCain's camp is how to win the general. I'm an independent registered Republican. From my vantage point, McCain has split the GOP exceptionally deep like I've never seen it before. He won't get the backing of the conservative wing for many different reasons. As a result, it won't matter whether it is Obama or Clinton, either will win the general. So as McCain has won the "battle" (GOP nod), he will ultimately lose the "war." Had he worked the GOP race better/differently in the "battle," he would have given himself a chance in the "war." Now, it is lost.

Wayne (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:07 PM)

Apparantly you do not know how The Obamalites fear Hillary would lose to Mccain---interesting in what you say.They are as devisive and nasty as Rush.

HMT-MI (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:21 PM)

If McCain picks Huckabee as a running mate, so help me, not only am I never voting republican, I'm getting a vote Obama or yes even Clinton bumpersticker AND starting a "We hate Huck" shirt line.
I like Romney, but he should drop out and let Huckabee and McCain fawn over eachother. There are plenty of states out there Romney could still win, but what's the point?

Wilson, Seattle (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:27 PM)

If you are a democrat and you want to beat John McCain, think carefully about who you vote for in the primaries. Recent polls show McCain beating Hillary in a general election. The candidate with overwhelming victories in the south, midwest and other traditionally 'red' areas is Obama. He can campaign where she can't, and he brings in many more new voters, independent voters and crossover republicans. He cannot be accused of "flip-flopping" on the key issue of Iraq, as Hillary will be. McCain will indeed unite his party (especially if Hillary is the nominee), and they will have a good chance to win unless we put up our strongest challenger: Obama. Voting for Obama should be a simple matter of pragmatism for democrats. We need to win, and we need to win big. The stakes are too high to take a chance on Hillary.

JB, Hull, IA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:32 PM)

McCain is 71 going on 91 yrs old. His wife has to help him up and down airplane stairs, and blurts out inappropriate statements and at this point, ANY democrat can beat him. He's a doddering old fool. Reminds me of Teddy boy Kennedy.

j fl (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:33 PM)

it a sad day in the party when john macain is the nommiee. what will rush say now?

michael, ca (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:33 PM)

McCain still needs to win 416 delegates, 43 percent of those remaining, to get the nomination. It's conceivable that he could be denied a first ballot victory, after which the conservatives might coalesce around a single candidate. It's not likely, but it's too soon to say McCain's a lock.

Michidem (Ypsilanti, MI) (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:39 PM)

Hillary can't beat McCain.

adam/Brooklyn New York City (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:46 PM)

Now that McCain is almost sure to be the Pub candidate, people need to take a closer look at his military record, which is not quite what he makes it out to be in his "hero" ads running on TV. And no, this doesn't appear to be swift-boating (which means lying like the swift-boaters lied about Kerry's military record in the 2004 election. According to the article below,

McCain's life was saved by a Vietnamese civilian who rescued him from drowning and kept other civilians from beating him to death on the spot. (When people drop bombs on you, it could make you kind of angry). McCain never mentions that he wouldn't be around to run for prez if it wasn't for some Vietnamese guy.

And he _did_ break under torture and "confessed" to war crimes and such while he was in the Hanoi Hilton. That shouldn't be considered a strike against him, except when his campaign pretends he heroically resisted torture for 6 years with super-human will power and never broke.

Here's the article:

Puffing up John McCain, POW
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/02/06/6878/

Houston (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:49 PM)

why was Hillary Clinton the only one that expressed her thoughts about the tornado victims last night.The other 3 just too worried about their own asses.That told me a lot about these people.Teir true natures

HMT-MI (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:55 PM)

Has John McCain ever held a job in the private sector?

Fiscal Conservative, Idaho (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 1:58 PM)

John McCain is going to try to paint the "surrender" flag on the dem. nominee in terms of Iraq, but it aint gonna work this time. Cause Johnny boy, you are on record as saying you would stay in Iraq for 100 years, and this country wont have that....we want out of Iraq, and it's not surrender to start pulling out our troops since, after all, didn't Bush, your mentor, say, "Mission Accomplished"? We did our job there, they are messing up their own country, and Iraq should stand or fall on its own by now. And don't give me that Al Qaeda nonsense...less than 2% of all violence in Iraq is due to Al Qaeda ... all the rest is the "other extremists", i.e., the centuries old sunni vs shiite battle we will never end.

pat huntington ny (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:07 PM)

One thing is crystal clear. Voters pay little attention to polls, pundits and endorsements, and when they do, it's to stick it ion their eye(s).

God Bless the ornery American voter.

McRumi (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:07 PM)

McCain had better remember this is not over....

This will give him a chance to unite the party but I doubt he can.

After last night, I'm beginning who will unite either party....

You have a three way race in the republican showdown
And you have a two way race on the democratic side....

If anybody was thinking about a third party run, now is the time to do it while both parties are right down the middle

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:13 PM)

For Huck and Mitt it has to be about positioning for next time. If Mitt wants to leave a good impression, he has to be low key. If Huck wants the Veep, well, he's got some chips and that looks like a good way for Huck to have a shot down the road.

If McCain loses or is limited to one term, Huck and Mitt would be obvious choices to shape the party. It's not that they can't win, but how they get out. They could both be a lot stronger if they learn some lessons from this campaign.

Isn't Romney's best shot to build for the future just to bow out now? That really shuts out Huckabee, on one level, because Mitt puts McC over the top, more or less. If Romney really wants it down the road, I don't see what he builds staying in the race.

It's over...

George Sears, Cedar City, Utah (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:15 PM)

Houston: Garbage. ''common dreams''is a leftwinged website which typically shills for George Soros. Expect no veritas from the likes of these. [indeed,go to their website,and we find,that the usual contributors to the site include Soros himself,Noam Chomskey,Cindy Sheehan,Sean Penn,and other leftist-Marxist tinfoil luminaries]. Houston,denying a ''swiftboat'' hit job,has in fact advanced it. Deliberately.

Lee Holmes (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:18 PM)

Why is MSNBC colluding with the Hillary camp and continuing to promote her "wins" in Michigan and Florida. Last night the map shaded these states for Clinton. Today, on Morning Joe, Tim Russert noted that she was allowed to claim these "wins" on yesterday's program without being challenged. On today's 1pm segment, Norah O'Donnell also referred to Hillary's "sort of wins" in MI and FL when discussing the delegate counts with Charlie Cook. Encouraging the inevitability that Hillary will get these delegates will not prevent the firestorm that Tim Russert referred to this morning if there is an attemt to seat them at the convention. Fix the map. Emphasize that no delegates have been awarded in these states. And stop assisting Hillary Clinton in her end-game around the rules.

Mo, Summit, New Jersey (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:18 PM)

Timelines!!, Timelines!!, Timelines!!, Timelines!!

watch out Hussein Bin Obama and you too Billary he's coming after you next!!! Start up the old swift boat engines!!

notlookingthroughrosecoloredglasses!! (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:21 PM)

Among other things that people should consider when comparing Hillary to John McCain, is that most people consider her tougher than half the Senate already. Did you ever consider that she was the strength behind the throne getting her husband elected in the first place? As for John McCain being commander in chief, do you really want to elect someone who says he has no problem with us being in Iraq for over a hundred years, or that there will be more wars and more wars and more wars? Haven't we had enough of war for the sake of war? Isn't it time we elect someone who has another more progressive agenda? To answer that the blogger who asked what job John McCain held before he was in the Senate, the answer is he was in the military. It seems to me, that war is all John McCain has to recommend him. War is all he knows. War is all he wants. I don't know about you but I'd like a little more than just more war.

ny reality (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:21 PM)

As far as John McCain being able to unite the Republican party against Hillary Clinton, it should be remembered that right now it seems to me he can't even unite them around him

ny reality (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:23 PM)

Now that the primary is over with a vote cast for Ron Paul, some of us can rejoin our true conservative brethren in the Constitution Party, America First Party, and our Constitutional allies among the Libertarians.

All you "conservative" Republicans can squabble over your preferred socialist, Keynesian, liberal, gun grabbing, war mongering, illegal-alien-embracing nominee: McCain, Romney, or Huckabee. Pick your poison.

Mike, Hermosa Beach, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:24 PM)

Fiscal Conservative, Idaho, the answer to your question is no he was retired from the Navy in 1981 and went into politics after that. The negative on McCain in his service to the country, is that he never made a grade above captain. He was not the brightest guy in the service. However he did buck all odds and regain his physical ability to fly and became a noted leader of a flight squadron.

TEC-spring-TX (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:26 PM)

To HMT

Get your facts straight. Obama expressed, right in the beginning of his speech, his thoughts and concerns about the tornados in the South.

SBR (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:27 PM)

I think that McCain should start thinking about having a real conservative (not Huckabee, who isn't one) as a running mate. If he does not, conservatives should sit out the election no matter who the Dims select. McCain will probably not live out his term and so the 2nd spot on the ticket will be a prize. There has been discussion about whether or not McCain has Alzheimer's by people who say they are physicians. Having been around quite a few people who have developed the disease I am not really sure myself.

Mad Jayhawk, Madison, SD (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:34 PM)

Yessiree bob...the reprehensible party is signing up to a third bush term...more lies and deceipt...more wars of choice that their kids don't fight in...more neonut crusades....more ignorant judges...more pandering to dictatorships, rightwing ones of course....oh boy

Mitt (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:34 PM)

JB, Hull, IA: the hypotetical matchups are a joke. I don't know why they do them....and just because Obama won in some red states (so did Hillary, for that matter) in the primaries, doesn't mean that he can do so come November

sp (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:36 PM)

Is it safe to assume that McCain will win a large majority of the remaining delegates? I think it is, but it is looking like there will be at least two, likely more, ballots. After the first ballot, are the delegates allowed to change their minds? If that is the case, then it could be anybody's game except Ron Paul. If he really wants the White House, he would have to run as a 3rd party again like he did in 1988.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:40 PM)

As a republican who probably won't get to vote for my candidate, I'd rather make history by electing either of the dems choices than elect McCain. A McCain Huckabee ticket would be too embarrassing to even think about endorsing - Bomb and Dumber.

Dems, don't worry, McCain has the distinction of being the most pro-war candidate, who admittedly knows NOTHING about the economy. You will win this one, hands down.

Just remember, when the economy tanks - I supported Romney!!!

Anyone but Huckabee, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:41 PM)

McCain indeed has it wrapped up. It is mathematically impossible for either Romney or Huckabee to win enough delegates to win the nomination. The only think left to decide is the VP, and what the ditto-heads are going to do next. Will they take their marbles and go home? Or will they vote Democratic? It's hard to imagine the likes of Ann Coulter pulling that lever, but I guess anything'a possible. After all she still believes that Senator Joe McCarthy was a great hero.

Portuguese Pete (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:42 PM)

McCain president? Not in 100 years (of Iraq/U.S. war).

Brian, Cedar Hill, TX (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:43 PM)

Mr. Straight Talk AKA The Keating Five

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five

He is a natural leader with Democrats

Larry Tierney---Dunedin, Florida (Sent Wednesday, February 06, 2008 2:45 PM)

Hillary will beat McCain, just not a sound of a thrashing as Obama will give.

Obama/McCain could not be a more clear distinction.

Clinton/McCain, not so much. Hillary is fairly far to the right for a Deomcrat, and McCain is fairly far to the left for a Repub. Not totally there, but close. They meet in the middle in a big mush. Not on all issues, or even most issues, but on MANY.

Now, conservatives HATE McCain. They will NEVER vote for him. They will stay home. A few might even vote for whoever the Libertarian Party puts up there, maybe Ron Paul. (Not much maybe 2 or 3%.)

Add to that the fact that 1) There are more registered Democrats than Republicans. 2) Democrats have been turning out to the primaries WAY MORE than Republicans, by a factor of 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 in some cases. 3) Independents are going with Obama, probably less so with McCain. 4) New young voters are being registered in droves, which will favor the Democrats. Probably less so if Clinton is the nominee, but still a bit of a bump.

The bottom line: Republicans are depressed about their candidates. Democrats are excited about their candidates. Almost every Democrat, even Obama supporters, will vote for Clinton, even if it's not their preference.

Scott Mercer, Los Angeles, California (Sent Thursday, February 07, 2008 1:28 PM)

For most of Hillary's fans, it seems illogical that Hillary needs to subject herself or her husband to a knock-down, dragged out fight after the primaries.

Democrats who would like to see such a mudfight don't have the best interests of the Democratic Party in mind. It's possible that Hillary should allow Democrats the courtesy of losing to McCain if they seem hell bent on doing so.

Though it may not be best for the country, why should Hillary become the Atlas who tries to shoulder the world and make things better for Democrats? Since they obviously believe she is not the candidate to preserve their interests, perhaps she should pick up her marbles and go home.

If Democrats think they can do it without her, let them follow the path of Gore and Kerry.

Pat (Sent Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:07 PM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=643431