First thoughts: Some good GOP news
Posted: Friday, February 08, 2008 9:16 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Finally, some good GOP news: It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Republican Party is heading into a general election where it’s at a clear disadvantage -- whether we’re talking about generic ballot tests, fundraising, Iraq and the economy, or turnout so far in this year’s nominating contests. But with Romney’s departure from the GOP race yesterday, coupled with the perception that Obama and Clinton will continue battling at least for a couple more months, the GOP finally has some good news to tout: It appears to have its nominee months before the Democrats will. And this time is an opportunity to heal wounds, raise money, and reorganize for the general election battle ahead. The Democrats -- with all of their advantages -- might not have that same opportunity. Think about this stat, by the way: There is more time in between the last primary (Puerto Rico) and the start of the Dem convention (approx. 80 days) than there is from the end of that convention to the November general election (approx. 60 days).
*** A note of caution, however: While everyone is proclaiming McCain the presumptive nominee after Romney’s exit, the GOP race still isn’t over. And do remember that McCain has never been a good front-runner -- he has always seemed to trip up when in that position. Huckabee is still in the race, and his last stand is Virginia. He may not say it, but it's pretty obvious when one looks at the potential Republican electorate. Should many indies and moderate Republicans decide their vote is better spent in the Dem primary, then Huckabee's passionate evangelical supporters could be enough to keep things close. What does McCain do now? For one, he can't completely act like he's taking the nomination (and conservatives) for granted. He should do what he can to put Huckabee away for good on Tuesday. A big win by McCain over Huckabee in Virginia will do just that. The thing McCain has left to fear from conservatives who aren't on board yet is a third party challenge, and that happens if he pokes conservatives in the eye or ignores them too quickly and moves too fast to the center.
*** The streak might be broken: With Romney bowing out of the race, the chances of a sitting senator winning the presidency in November are now extremely high, NBC’s Andy Merten notes. Barring the highly unlikely surge by Huckabee (a governor) or the entrance and success by a third-party contender (say Bloomberg), either McCain, Obama, or Clinton will probably win in November -- the first time in nearly 50 years a sitting senator has won the presidency, since JFK. Something else worth pointing out: If McCain and Clinton both end up winning the nods, it will be the first time we can remember both nominees being outspent in the primaries.
*** Dictating the pace of the game: Is Obama the front-runner? Maybe not, but the fact that he's dictating the terms of when the candidates debate and he is the fundraising leader, he's on the verge. The only thing missing: an overall delegate lead and a national primary poll lead. Clinton needs to stop him from that because if his momentum ever gets to the point where he looks like the national front-runner in the polls, everything else will only cement him. Another example of Obama dictating the race: his semi-call yesterday for the Clintons to release their tax returns after the $5 million loan, which led to a slew of stories today examining their wealth. But the Clinton folks had to know this would be the result of their decision to spend their own money. After all, the Clintons have only accumulated their wealth since Bill Clinton left the presidency. By the way, can the Clinton campaign get away with their promise to wait to release their tax returns after the primary season?
*** Another busy weekend: If you thought that there were no contests between Super Tuesday and Chesapeake Tuesday on Feb. 12, think again. This weekend, there are a total of five Democratic races, and a combined 185 delegates are at stake in them. In fact, it’s worth noting that this delegate amount is 48 more than were at stake before February 5. On Saturday, Louisiana (primary), Nebraska (caucuses), the Virgin Islands (territorial convention), and Washington State (caucuses) hold nominating contests. And Maine (caucuses) goes on Sunday. The GOP also holds contests in Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington. A preview of these races is below…
*** Loopholes donkeys could fit through: Journalists are not lawyers or mediators or referees. Unfortunately, particularly with regard to the situation surrounding Michigan and Florida's delegates, we've had to play the part, in some respects, of all three. We pride ourselves on trying to make the complicated clear. And for those of us who attended the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting months ago, most of us thought the rules were abundantly clear. It went something like this: you knew the rules; you broke the rules; you get one last chance (30 days to figure out how to abide by the rules), and if you don't, you are punished. Now we learn that through what essentially amounts to loopholes and legalese, Florida and Michigan could be given another chance. There's talk that if they hold caucuses or something similar, then their delegates could potentially be seated and have full voting privileges. But just asking: Isn't it Parenting (or Teaching) 101 that you shouldn't set consequences you can't follow through on? Because when your child (or student)-- given clear expectations and consequences from the beginning -- breaks the agreed-to rules and you don't follow through, don't you lose credibility?
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Washington State, where she stumps in Tacoma and Spokane; Huckabee holds rallies across Kansas; McCain campaigns in Virginia, Kansas, and Washington State; and Obama attends a rally in Seattle, WA before traveling back to Chicago.
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 4 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 25 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 270 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 347 days
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