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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



More oh-eight (D): The super fight

Posted: Monday, February 11, 2008 9:03 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

On superdelegates, the New York Daily News writes, “Think of them as the Democrats' House of Lords, or maybe just the modern-day sachems of Tammany Hall. They include every Democratic governor and member of Congress, assorted union chiefs, political operatives and even former President Bill Clinton (though not Michelle Obama).” 
 
The candidates are wooing them hard. 
 
Every delegate counts… “With Clinton running neck and neck with Sen. Barack Obama in delegates, the race could be affected by whether party officials allow any delegates to be seated from Florida and Michigan.”

OBAMA: Why hasn't more been made of Colin Powell's apparent openness to support Obama, even over his good friend John McCain? Of course, does Obama want the support of someone from the Bush Administration who pushed the Iraq war during the primaries? This may be an endorsement he hopes he gets AFTER he's the nominee. "Even as Bush said he'd help McCain if he won the Republican nomination, the president's former secretary of State, Gen. Colin L. Powell, said in a separate interview that he was open to voting for a Democrat for president. Powell, a Republican, praised Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. ‘I think he's been an exciting person on the political stage,’ Powell said on CNN's ‘Late Edition.’ ‘He has energized a lot of people in America; he has energized a lot of people around the world.’”

“Powell backed Obama's proposal to open talks with Iran -- a key difference with Obama's opponent, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- saying it was important to engage with leaders of states in conflict with U.S. policies. ‘You have to talk to folks that you may not necessarily like, and you can't put down impossible preconditions for conversations,’ said Powell in a clear reference to Clinton, who has said she would not open discussions with antagonists without ground rules."

Paul Krugman really, really, really doesn’t like Barack Obama -- or his supporters.

Bloomberg News takes a closer look at Obama's mother Ann Dunham.

The New York Times’ Roger Cohen looks at the problems Obama's facing in the Jewish community. "The attacks, mainly anonymous e-mails, have woven together various threads -- his middle name ‘Hussein;’ schooling in Muslim Indonesia; his Chicago pastor’s embrace of the anti-Semitic leader of the Nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan; and his calls for dialogue with Iran -- to portray Obama as the Muslim Manchurian candidate. Leading American Jewish organizations have denounced these ‘hateful e-mails.’ Obama has condemned Farrakhan’s anti-Semitism and made clear he disagrees with his pastor, the Rev. Jerermiah A. Wright Jr., whose magazine honored Farrakhan last year. But he’s not broken with Wright, the man who ushered him to his Christian faith.”

“Some doubts clearly persist among U.S. Jews, who account for just 2 percent of the population but a higher percentage of voters, and one with wide influence. On a recent four-day trip to Florida, David Harris, the executive director of the nonpartisan American Jewish Committee, encountered the following questions: Did Obama really attend a madrassa? What are his relations with Wright? Why does he have former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski (viewed as cool toward Israel) on his foreign policy team?"

The New York Times’ Bill Kristol foresees some Obama momentum and then adds his guess as to how Obama seals the deal: "And there are, as a final resort, two super-superdelegates (so to speak) who would have the clout to help Democrats achieve closure: Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. If they stepped forward at the right time, they would earn the gratitude of their party. And they might also enjoy contemplating a derivative effect of their good deed — the fall of the house of Clinton."

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Ouch, that must have been painful.  I know you’ve been a strong backer of Hillary.  I hope you’re right, but I don’t see how she can do it, and I don’t mean that as a knock on Hillary.  I’m trying to put myself in her place and I don’t think I could do it.  She was, after all, the presumptive nominee for many months.  If she could manage to yield gracefully, that would go a long way toward earning back the respect of many of us, and it would certainly be in the best interest of her party and the country.

The very best outcome for the party now would be a clean win for one of the two candidates. That means the superdelegates uphold the will of the grassroots voters, if necessary.  I know some of Hillary’s advisors are pushing to overturn the popular verdict if they lose, by playing loose with Florida and Michigan or manipulating superdelegate votes.  Don’t even think about it.  What a disaster for the party!  It would be a classic case of grasping so hard for the prize that you break it.  The nomination would be worthless in November after such an ugly win.  

The second best outcome for the party would be if Hillary threw her support behind Barack.  I say that because her supporters are generally loyalists, while Barack draws heavily from voters who have never developed party loyalty or have lost interest in the kind of confrontational politics that Hillary has decided to champion.  As persuasive as Barack is, he won’t be able to deliver these votes to Hillary if she wins.  He can’t join her on a ticket or gracefully bow out, and then convince these newly energized voters that now all of a sudden politics as usual is OK.  It just doesn’t work.  A great many of the disillusioned Independents would actually shift to McCain.

The straightforward calculation is that we would have a larger margin of votes in November with Barack as the standard bearer.  That assumes that Hillary can bring most of her backers around to support Barack.  If not, we’re screwed.  It would help us prepare for November if she decides to bow out early, but I would frankly be stunned if she could pull off such a selfless act.
"Op-Ed columnist Paul Krugman has the disturbing habit of shaping, slicing and selectively citing numbers in a fashion that pleases his acolytes but leaves him open to substantive assaults."
-Daniel Okrent
New York Times Ombudsman
Obama should flaunt Colin Powell's support.  Yes, he was a part of the Bush administration...but left and came out against the war. People respect him across all lines. He could pull in independents and disenchanted Repubs.
“With Clinton running neck and neck with Sen. Barack Obama in delegates, the race could be affected by whether party officials allow any delegates to be seated from Florida and Michigan.”


Those delegates should be seated, but only if a fair campaign can be run by all candidates prior to the vote. Didn't all the candidates sign pledges to not campaign in MI or FL? And didn't all the candidates (except Clinton) take their names off the ballot in MI? That hardly seems fair to seat the delegates on the so-called votes made in each of these two states. It seems more like stealing if they do seat the delegates.
Obama has energized alot of people, but with generalities only.  His outdated 60's speeches full of promises without substance impress Powell? I would of voted for Powell years ago if he ran for pres. and I am a democrat.  Now? He is an embarassment.  I bet he'll wait until slick Obama feels it won't hurt him.  If Obama is true to his word, he won't accept it.  When he does accept, Obama will use his talent of spin and will try to make it a positive. Obama will show how hypocritical he is- especially after attacking Hillary on the Iraq vote (which he misconstrued to his benefit).  
Vote for Hillary.  She will be tougher against McCain.
Obama would be crazy to hook up with Colin Powell (or Condi Rice); he needs to keep clean and very, very clear his opposition to Bush's Idiot's Delight of a war/boondoggle from the very beginning.  Don't muddy the waters with ANYONE associated with that mistake of a war!
So many young people have gotten excited and started to participate in the process, to be a little less cynical. If the delegates elected by the people favor Barack, but the supers swing it to Hillary, it'll be a real slap in the face to them, and EVERYONE who believes in the Democratic process.
Sorry Colin there will be no redemption for you by simply supporting Democratic candidates.  You must admit your sins and guilt, apologize and seek forgiveness.
As the Daily Show's Jon Stewart said to Mitt Romney after he Mitt compared Democrats to terrorists,  f@@k you Paul Krugman.
The straightforward calculation is that we would have a larger margin of votes in November with Barack as the standard bearer.  That assumes that Hillary can bring most of her backers around to support Barack.  If not, we’re screwed.  It would help us prepare for November if she decides to bow out early, but I would frankly be stunned if she could pull off such a selfless act.

jaycee, Ventura, California (Sent Monday, February 11, 2008 9:19 AM)


Jaycee.  I love reading your well written, well thought out, positive posts.  Sadly I believe you are correct when you say "I would frankly be stunned if she could pull off such a selfless act."

In my opinion, I believe Hillary feels she's owed the Presidency and it should be given to her no matter what.  I'm afraid she'll drag this out all the way to the convention no matter what, including possible law suits to try and get Florida/Michigan counted as is, and try to use super delegates to overturn the people's vote. She'll do or say anything to win.  I simply can't see her doing the right thing and stepping aside if it's clear she can't win fairly.
Obama has to win the nomination. There is no other way around it. If Hillary takes it, it will be because the super delegates gave it to her and I for one will not vote in the General Election. I will stay home and vote again in 2012.
OBAMA-08!!!!
As to the Paul Krugman comments, it is so ironic that the one nominee in many years who has refused to engage in hate politics and his gigantic wave of supporters who wish only to unify America and move forward for the common good are being criticized for being - yes, HATEFUL - by this idiot!!!

This is exactly why we need Barack Obama RIGHT NOW in America. We need an end to the destructive spin and partisanship on BOTH sides of the aisle.

Someone should take Paul Krugman's computer away.

And THANK YOU OBAMA for running a great campaign!!!

If the superdelegates attempt to overthrow the vote of the populace then there will be a mutiny at the Democratic National Convention.  Delegates have to fight long and hard for the chance to represent their candidate on the floor of the convention.  If Hillary tries to overthrow the popular count we may see a mini-revolution in the Democratic Party.  Dems are adament about playing by the rules since the coronation of Bush in 2000.  We believe everyone needs to compete according to the same rules . . . even if your name is Clinton.
FLIP FLOPPA OBAMA: Just heard on the news that Obama has changed his views on pulling "all" the troops out of Iraq. He is now supporting Hillary Clinton's stand on the troops. Obama is a flip flopper. Hillary has been right on this issue all along. She knew what a dangerous time this would be for our troops and the US citizens who are there. Obama, your bad judgment is showing what a lightweight you are. Get some experience and facts before you make your views known.
If the super delegates are used to negate the votes of the people then what the hell is democracy? After 39 years as a Democrat I would withdraw from the party, switch to Independent, and write in the name of John Edwards as my vote.
 As for Colin Powell, turncoats have never been popular on any battlefield.  They may be used, but always despised.  His actions toward instigating the illegal slaughter of the Iraqi people are now part of history.  Warmonger McCain may have welcomed that endorsement, but Obama is too sharp to make a mistake like that.
I respect Hillary, but she is not and never has been a leader.  A true leader NEVER has to stand up and says "I'm a leader"...they simply do it by inspiring others.  Once Obama wins the nomination, she would make an awesome Senate Majority Leader...Harry Reid is a wimpy puppy dog.
I am telling everybody one thing.  I feel trouble in the air and I hope I am wrong.  I am looking at each state and how badly Barak is beating Hillary in the popular vote and I swear he is getting screwed in the delegates.  Hillary had 9 delegates before they even casted one vote in Maine. At the end of the contest that first read was that Barak had 15 delegates and Hil had 9.  The exact number she started with before the casting of the first vote.  How does that happen. Is that from early voting??  I am worried that they are going to try and steal this election from Barak and hand it to Hillary.
"BUSH ENDORSES CLINTON" perfect.  We Obama supporters could not be more thrilled.
Go back and watch colin powell speaking to the un and showing off his doctored photos and little bottles of chemicals.He succeedded in selling the Iraq war to the world.Whoops----he was lying like the rest of them he just cinched the deal.If that is who want running the country you are screwed up.He was used and abused then discarded--------incidently your guy BO needs money his people just keep calling and begging.


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