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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Read my lips, no new scandals

Posted: Tuesday, February 12, 2008 9:02 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

Anyone else confused by the fact that the Gallup daily tracking has Clinton up, while the USA Today/Gallup has Obama up? In that USA Today version, Obama performs slightly better against McCain than Clinton does.

A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Obama leading McCain 48%-42% percent; Clinton had 46% to McCain's 45%.

CLINTON: An interesting pledge from Clinton last night at the WJLA/Politico.com forum: "The senator was asked a question from a Politico.com reader in Santa Monica, Calif., who was seeking assurance that ‘no new business or personal scandal involving Bill Clinton’ could erupt if she were in the White House and give fodder to Republicans. ‘You know, I can assure this reader that that is not going to happen,’ she said. ‘You know, none of us can predict the future, no matter who we are and what we are running for, but I am very confident that that will not happen.’”

Also in last night’s discussion, NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones reports, Clinton insisted things in her campaign "have gone well," despite her recent string of losses. When asked why she has declined to release her tax returns, Clinton said Barack Obama should answer questions about his relationship to Exelon Corp., a company with nuclear energy interests that has donated to Obama's political campaigns. "I've said that I'm going to release my tax returns when I'm the nominee," she said, adding that she had liquidated all of her holdings to avoid any appearance of conflict. "Transparency is an important issue and it doesn't only go to your personal finances, but Sen. Obama has some questions to answer about his dealings with one of his largest contributors, Exelon, a big nuclear power company. Apparently he cut some deals behind closed doors to protect them from full disclosure in the nuclear industry. So I just think that we need to get more information out so people are not driven by campaigns or partisan advantage."

She also said there were a lot of unanswered questions regarding Obama and Tony Rezko, and suggested that while she had been "examined one side up and the other side down", not enough scrutiny was being directed toward her opponent.

The New York Daily News: “Yet in a year where many Democratic elders salivate over winning back the White House and plumping up their congressional majorities, a growing sense of doom and dread surrounds the Hillary campaign. … Clinton spin notwithstanding, there's no disputing Obama is surging and Hillary is struggling. If you believe in the momentum theory of politics, that bodes ill for Clinton.”

“[T]raders wagering on the outcome of the dramatic contest were overwhelmingly betting that Obama would defeat Clinton,” the New York Post writes. “Obama was trading at about 70 on the Dublin, Ireland-based Intrade predictions market, meaning traders gave him a 70 percent chance of being the Democratic nominee. Clinton was selling at about 30. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by researchers at the University of Iowa, had similar expectations, giving Obama a 70 percent chance of winning the nomination and Clinton about a 27 percent chance. As recently as Jan. 1 traders were giving Clinton about a 70 percent chance.”

One Latino superdelegate in California is not happy with Clinton removing Patti Solis Doyle as manager.

OBAMA: The New York Times examines the struggle Obama has had navigating race issues. "Glimpses inside the Obama campaign show, though, that while the senator had hoped his colorblind style of politics would lift the country above historic racial tensions, from Day 1 his bid for the presidency has been pulled into the thick of them. While his speeches focus on unifying voters, his campaign has learned the hard way that courting a divided electorate requires reaching out group by group. Instead of following a plotted course, Mr. Obama’s campaign has zigged and zagged, reacting to outside forces and internal differences between the predominantly white team of top advisers and the mostly black tier of aides.

“The dynamic began the first day of Mr. Obama’s presidential bid, when white advisers encouraged him to withdraw an invitation to his pastor, whose Afro-centric sermons have been construed as antiwhite, to deliver the invocation at the official campaign kickoff. Then, when his candidacy was met by a wave of African-American suspicion, the senator’s black aides pulled in prominent black scholars, business leaders and elected officials as advisers."

The Wall Street Journal looks at the fact that Obama has yet to be able to overwhelm Clinton. "In another year, against another candidate, Illinois's Sen. Obama might be on the verge of nabbing the Democratic nomination. A few Democratic strategists, and some Republicans, think he is almost there now. But Sen. Clinton is no average candidate, and party rules give the New York senator enough convention delegates to weather February's squalls until contests in March."

More: “‘The Obama wave is unlike anything I have seen during my career. It would have totally swamped any traditional candidate,’ said Republican pollster Bill McInturff,  who conducts The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. ‘The fact that Clinton is still standing and breaking even is actually a remarkable statement about how unique a candidate she is and what an exceptionally strong candidate.’”

The New York Sun reports that one of Obama's chief foreign policy advisers, Zbigniew Brzezinski, is leading a RAND delegation to Syria. "Mr. Brzezinski's visit to Syria, a country President Bush has accused of arming terrorists and ordering political assassinations in Lebanon, is in many ways in keeping with a theme of the Obama campaign. The Illinois senator in August said during a Democratic debate that he would be willing to meet with foreign adversaries, earning a rebuke from Senator Clinton, a Democrat of New York, who said such an approach would be ‘naïve.’”

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Comments

Al Gore had a social security lock-box. Hillary has a testicular lock-box.
Can anyone believe that this question to Hillary is even being asked? People are asking if Bill will behave if left loose to roam the halls of the White House? These two drama queens have never been far away from scandels, and now we're told to believe that everything will be better when they get back to the White House? We don't need the day time soaps with these two around.
Okay Sierra, the first part of this post is for you.  Time for your lists....
I'm sure she would have made the same pledge in '92 (hell - she probably DID make it.). Pledging that Bubba's gonna behave is not the same as guaranteeing that he won't, and all of the issues of his post-presidential 'business dealings" are gonna come to the fore if she's the nominee.

If she's lost nine in a row going into March 4, it's gonna be hard for her to claim anything other than "I used to be real popular."
Obamas wife last night did pretty good. Was interesting to hear Obamas got an apartment here and she stays home.That is an accident waiting to happen.Will she sign pledge nothing will ever happen?What about her snide remark before :If you cannt run her own house you cannt run the White House.? Obama is one to watch says one thing and means another.Obama slams Hillery too but now maybe he will have to be the one ans. the questions.Rezko,Excelon corp,trip to Kenya and relatives still there.there will be lots more its his turn now for sure.He is not the lilly white he would have you believe.Sometimes people seem to good to be true and they usually are.
"No scandals" that you'll know about.  Oh by the way... where are Sen.Clinton's tax returns?  Anyone?
This is exactly why she would have a difficult time, at best, dealing with foreign leaders.  They will either be snickering behind her back knowing bubba is chasing every skirt in town (back at home while she's gone, or in the other room at the palace), or they'll be rolling their eyes as Bill comes strolling up with his hand out looking for a "contribution" of some sort.    
"When asked why she has declined to release her tax returns, Clinton said Barack Obama should answer questions about his relationship to Exelon Corp., a company with nuclear energy interests that has donated to Obama's political campaigns."


Thanks, Hillary...that answer made a WHOLE lotta sense!
It's an open secret within the mainstream media community that several major papers have been sitting on a story for some time that will detail Bill Clinton's ongoing infidelities since leaving the White House. The LA Times and the New York Times, in particular. What they're waiting for, I don't know. But it's a story that could break any time. Don't believe me? Check out Mickey Kaus's blog at Slate.com today, where he alludes to it. Also, check out this link to a piece at HuffingtonPost.com from November:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-robinson/the-big-clinton-story_b_74391.html
The fact that she had to PROMISE that there would be "no -NEW- scandals" gives testimony to the fact that Hillary-haters are not irrational.  

And there WILL be plenty of new scandals, seeing as how Hillary has yet to release her tax returns, and all those millions of pages of documents at the Clinton Library, as well as the library donor's list.

Frankly, I'm sick of hearing about scandals.  I want to hear about something getting done.  I just don't see how Clinton will get anything done with her partisan fighting.
"[T]raders wagering on the outcome of the dramatic contest were overwhelmingly betting that Obama would defeat Clinton ..."
--Whoever says betting is more accurate?  The market merely follows the polls and the momentum.  Anybody with half a brain could predict it as well.


I agree with the WSJ.  Given this political environment and hunger for change, in any normal year, Obama would have swamped any traditional candidate.  Sen. Clinton is also a unique candidate given her family situation and gender, both of which play a large role in her campaign.  I think that it is those unique features more than anything else that give her campaign strength.
I wouldn't worry about new scandals, kids, there are enough old ones to make a joke of the general election campaign if Clinton wins the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton has always been a divisive force in politics.  During the Clinton administration, it was termed a "vast right wing conspiracy.  Now she is divisive to the Democratic party.  

Her favorable ratings and her unfavorable ratings have always been about the same.  Additional, Mrs. Clintons supporters are as avid as they come, but the same thing can be said for her detractors.  I can't think of anything that would energise the Republican base more than naming Mrs. Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

It is apparent that the Democratic National Committee front loaded the primary process to favor the acknowledged presumptive favorite in the presidential race.  Before January 1st, that would be Mrs. Clinton.  Mr. Obama has turned that advantage around.  In just a short month and a half, he has accomplished the impossible in battling Mrs. Clinton to a draw. In terms of momentum, he has done a tremendous job just to get to the position of being even with Mrs. Clinton. His momentum is still growing.  It wouldn't surprise me to see him win in Texas and in Ohio.  It also wouldn't surprise me to see the Clinton machine go all out and squeek out a narrow victory.  It is unwise to bet against the Clinton machine.  Look to New Hampshire as evidence!
I would love for Monica to have gotten involved with Bush back in 2002 maybe the economy would not be in the toilet and the war of ego would not have been started.
We are approaching 4,000 killed in that war and to me that is much worse than a bj in the oval office.
Hillery '08 wrote:

Obamas wife last night did pretty good. . . What about her snide remark before :If you cannt run her own house you cannt run the White House.?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is a often repeated bit of misinformation. The quote you mention above WAS NOT a reference to Senator Clinton. Here is the full context:

"So our view was that, if you can’t run your own house, you certainly can’t run the White House. So, so we’ve adjusted our schedules to make sure that our girls are first, so while he’s traveling around, I do day trips. That means I get up in the morning, I get the girls ready, I get them off, I go and do trips, I’m home before bedtime."

Get more at this link:
http://thinkonthesethings.wordpress.com/2007/08/22/transcript-of-michelle-obamas-speech-no-attack-on-clinton-found/
This not AMERICAN IDOL... where vocals matter. Let's compare resumes for the AMERICAN PRESIDENT.
Bill Clinton is over 60 years old and has had major heart trouble and major surgery.   All of you who see him as this middle-aged lothario are living in world now 20 years past and your rhetoric is getting pretty lame
One wonders if Hillary made this pledge with as much concern for upholding it as the pledge she signed regarding MI and FL.
Interestingly enough there hasn't been as much of the scandal questioning, by the media and the other candidates, as I thought there might have been, but now the trend seems to be changing...

That notwithstanding, I know the Republicans are salivating at the thought of Billary gaining the nomination.. As Peggy Noonan wrote in a Wall Street Journal Editorial, February 8......... "Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it." And Noonan’s,  presenting the scenario in a much lighter fashion than it would actually happen, they’d rip her to shreds…Yesterday, on the Charlie Rose Show, one of the guests, a member of the Christian Rightwing said…just imagine it, “you’d have a true war hero, a prisoner of war, running against a candidate who’s married to a draft dodger”…..That’s what she’s facing….now think of the contrast, what are they going to say about Obama?  

Now, the media is starting to question her regarding the possibility of any other skeletons bobbing to the surface, because there are increasing rumblings of new rumors of infidelity and malfeasance surrounding her wayward spouse.....Poor Billary, not only is she apparently facing a "0 for 10" record in February, but she also has the ongoing fear that her juvenile delinquent husband has been pulling his pants down again.
Does anybody talk about or are they concerned that we have lost more of our blood and treasure in Iraq?Or are you just so sucked in by the path the media has put you on(Obama-Hillary)that you just do not care.You better shut your mouths and open up your eyes as to what is going on-----Bush is already stopping our troops from coming home--even the extras sent in the surge.You people make me sick---so damned interested in fighting each other but do not give a twit about Iraq----
YOU DID CLINTON IN NOW MOVE ON lets see if you can whump A WAR HERO who has served his country selflessly for years sat in a prison camp came out with more hope and not hatred for his country lets see OBAMMA start slinging mud at MACAIN the same way he beats up HILLIARY
Where are we in the world today where a candidate for our highest office has to be asked (summarized) will your husband, our former 2 time president, be involved in any more scandals or corrupt activities? WHAT!?!? What has our country become when we need to ask this type of question? And for those who support Hillary….please respond directly to this and tell me why I should vote for her? I was a supporter but I'm on the fence now and really don't like the sounds of this. My wife said this is like proposing to your sweatheart but asking her first "Marry me but first promise not to cheat on me again" after it has happened several times.
‘You know, I can assure this reader that that is not going to happen,’ she said.

Of course, that all depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is.  Right, Hill?
Let's face it either Hillary or Obama can win against John.  The problem comes with governing.  Hillary is hated by the Republicans and will cause many of them to come out and vote.  Not only will they be voting for president, they'll be voting for Senators and House members.  If the Democrats don't have 60 votes, in the Senate and 2/3s of the House they'll have trouble getting legislation through.  With Obama, I think, Democrats  will have the working margins they need.  The Republicans won't be as motivated to vote.
No More Scandles?  Oh, come on, Hillary, you can do much better than that!

Where are the Tax Returns?
Where are the White House Papers?
What's Bill up to right now, Hillary?

Bill and Hillary, we will all do well if you both just quietly exit the world stage at your earliest convenience!
What a joke Hillary is.  I can't believe she will not release her tax results. Then she has to nerve to talk about corporate involvments when she is involved with more corporations than any other Demorcratic candidate.  I really liked Bill Clinton when he was president but he isn't running, Hilliary is, so that is a whole different candidate.  She was able to get away with breaking the law in 2000 and I don't trust her. If you don't believe me visit http://youtube.com/watch?v=AMfUajhL24I&feature=related


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