First thoughts: Will the streak continue?
Posted: Tuesday, February 12, 2008 9:10 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Will Obama’s win streak continue? If it’s Tuesday, it’s another round of nominating contests, and today there are three: in DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Will Obama be 8-0 since Super Tuesday (counting DC and the Virgin Islands)? It's looking possible. The marquee win for Obama would be Virginia. It's a state similar to Missouri -- though while Missouri has been trending red, Virginia is trending blue, but they are currently crossing at the same area of the ideological bar graph right now. A decisive win in Virginia will be something to brag about. While not a top-10 population state, Virginia isn't small, and he needs some bigger state victories. On the Democratic side, there are a total of 168 delegates at stake in the three races (83 in Virginia, 70 in Maryland, and 15 in DC). On the GOP side, there are 113 delegates up for grabs, and 76 of them are winner-take-all (60 in Virginia and 16 in DC), and Maryland has an additional 37 delegates at stake. In DC and Maryland, polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET, and in Virginia they open at 6:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** Remember the Alamo (and Ohio, too)! As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday and as the New York Times writes today, Ohio and Texas have become must-win states for the Clinton campaign, its donors, and its superdelegates. Per Mitchell, campaign officials confirm that Clinton called supporters yesterday to reassure them that the campaign is not in trouble. Nevertheless, there is considerable nervousness within the campaign about the outlook. They are ahead in those two states, as well as Pennsylvania, but several officials now say there is no margin of error. They must win all three, she notes. Interestingly, most of the make-or-break moments this primary season have been for Clinton, not Obama. His only one was South Carolina, while she’s had New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, and now March 4. Each time, she's just hung on. But according to that now-famous Obama campaign memo -- which has been pretty conservative in its projections so far -- Clinton could still win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania yet still trail Obama in pledged delegates.
*** But what about Wisconsin? The question the Clinton folks have to focus on is whether to contest Wisconsin. Do they want Obama to go 10-0 after February 5? There's a good chunk of working-class Democrats in the state, and a historical significance to the Wisconsin primary that leads us to believe she will contest it seriously. That said, while Obama heads to campaign in Wisconsin tonight, Clinton is going to Texas. Should Obama end up 10-0, won't the national polls continue to respond to his momentum? We're already seeing him start to take the lead in some national primary surveys, and he performs better against McCain than her in every post-February 5 survey we've seen. A 10-0 record after Super Tuesday would likely add to that -- and doesn't that eventually trickle down to Ohio and Texas? By the way, when wondering which March 4 state Obama will target more, realize that there is a larger African-American population in Texas than Ohio. Just something to think about. For more, check out the 2004 exit polls.
*** Delegate update: The Official NBC News Allocated Pledged Delegate Count (as of 10:00 am yesterday): Obama 958, Clinton 904 (although there are some delegates from decided contests that have yet to be allocated). The Political Unit Superdelegate Count: Clinton 261, Obama 177. Grand Total: Clinton 1,165, Obama 1,135. Our superdelegate count reflects numbers the campaigns are claiming plus our own updates based on publicly declared endorsements. There are currently 795 superdelegates in all, and only 719 are actually known at this point; 76 others will be chosen by state parties at state conventions as late as May and June.
*** Down the ballot: Today is only the second primary day to feature congressional races on the undercard. Last week, Illinois had congressional primaries, and this week, it's Maryland. The two big races feature two incumbents fighting for their political lives. In Maryland's 4th District, Democrat Al Wynn looks to be in serious trouble in his rematch with Donna Edwards. In the state’s 1st District, meanwhile, Republican Wayne Gilchrest is trying to fend off two serious primary foes from the right. Gilchrest has been a thorn in conservative sides for years but surprisingly he looks a tad safer than Wynn. We'll see though…
*** On the trail: Clinton is in DC and then heads to El Paso, Texas, for an evening rally there (Texas holds its primary on March 4); Huckabee is in DC and Arkansas; McCain is in DC, Maryland, and holds an election night rally in Arlington, VA; and Obama is in DC and then holds a rally at the University of Wisconsin in Madison (Wisconsin holds its primary on February 19).
Countdown to Hawaii and Wisconsin: 7 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 266 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 343 days
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