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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Last night's results (D)

Posted: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:11 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

The Washington Post says Obama “won Virginia with about 64 percent of the vote. In Maryland, where the polls were kept open an additional 90 minutes because of bad weather, he was winning with about 60 percent to Clinton's 37 percent. He was headed for an even bigger win in the District, where he was attracting about 75 percent of the vote. The lopsided wins mean Obama will emerge with a clear majority of the 168 pledged delegates at stake in the area, as well as a widening lead overall among the more than 65 percent of pledged delegates who have now been accounted for nationally. When superdelegates are added to the calculations, Obama and Clinton are still in a highly competitive race, but Obama has seized the overall lead.”

The New York Times: “The outcome provided [Obama] his first chance to assert that the Democratic race, which had seemed to be heading into a protracted standoff, is beginning to break in his direction. And it left Mrs. Clinton facing weeks in which she has few opportunities for the kind of victory that would alter the race in her favor after a string of defeats notable not just for their number but also their magnitude.”

The New York Times’ Nagourney lists these obstacles for Clinton. “For one thing, if this is an election where a candidate wins by virtue of being seen as winning — a definition of momentum — that would mean that voters in coming states would be influenced by the outcome of earlier races. And Mr. Obama might then be in a position to encroach on Mrs. Clinton’s firewall of Texas and Ohio. Perhaps most problematically, the delegate selection process … could now begin to work against Mrs. Clinton. Both candidates get a share of the delegates, even if one wins by a margin of 20 points. That is a reason Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama had stayed so close on delegate numbers, and why it becomes harder for her to reclaim a lead.”

But he also provides this reason for hope for Team Clinton. “[W]hatever challenges Mrs. Clinton faces, she has repeatedly proved to be a resourceful candidate with a sharp campaign organization and a passionate base of supporters. Should she win in Ohio and Texas, she could halt Mr. Obama’s claim to momentum and keep the race for pledged delegates from breaking against her. And there has been a history in this campaign of Mr. Obama winning, only to have Mrs. Clinton return and win.”

The Los Angeles Times: “Obama's victories marked the first time in six weeks of balloting that either Democratic candidate has strung together so many successive wins. For a time, they traded triumphs every week or so. But Obama started to broaden his support in the last few rounds; he continued to make inroads Tuesday.”

The New York Daily News: “The lopsided wins were a body blow to Clinton's already battered campaign, which had been hoping to slow Obama's momentum heading into Texas and Ohio on March 4. The Illinois senator only picked up more steam.”

USA Today’s Page looks inside the exit polls. “Obama broadened his electoral coalition and swamped Clinton in both Democratic-leaning Maryland and Republican-leaning Virginia. Exit polls in both states showed him carrying African-American voters by nearly 9-1 and splitting white voters about evenly. He led among men and women.”

The AP’s Fouhy adds, “Memo to Hillary Rodham Clinton: Barack Obama is stealing your faithful… Even white women were beginning to move toward the Illinois senator - Clinton won nearly 60 percent of their votes, a much lower percentage than in contests past. Clinton has based her candidacy in large part on her appeal to white women. In addition to his usual strong showing among young voters, Obama was also running about even among those over 65, a group Clinton usually dominates.”

“Barring a dramatic run-of-the-table by Clinton or Obama in the weeks ahead and a concession from the other, neither will reach that tally without superdelegates,” the Boston Globe writes. “And it is impossible to know what event will catalyze superdelegates to coalesce behind one or the other (if they coalesce at all): Obama pulling off a win in Ohio or Texas on March 4 or Clinton scoring commanding victories in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania?”

The Boston Globe’s Canellos lead, “Clinton's supporters flipped on their televisions on Saturday night, Sunday night, and last night hoping to watch ‘The Amazing Race’ and ended up with ‘The Biggest Loser.’”

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White's will never admit to being racist because doing so would acknowledge that they are flawed. They have a sickness a human failing that would make them afraid. They are also always worried about payback! Imagine thousands of white families packing lunch, bringing their children and enjoying themselves while they Hang, Shoot, and Burn a Black Man. White folks ya'll are SICK! Face it! Hitler was Caucasion, there is a lust within you for this kind of behavior that you must confront not us forgive forever your shortcomings until you do your future is one that will fail unless you change. So get over yourself and join the Human Race. We understand, you just need to admit it to yourselves we will help you with your disease.
jaycee, thanks for the ride on the wayback machine with Bob Dylan's "My Back Pages."  That was my favorite Dylan song. Here is another stanza.

Half-wracked prejudice leaped forth
"Rip down all hate," I screamed
Lies that life is black and white
Spoke from my skull. I dreamed
Romantic facts of musketeers
Foundationed deep, somehow.
Ah, but I was so much older then,
I'm younger than that now.
Francis Wilson

Let us beware of what we are asking for or doing with this election before we throw it away based on emotiinal factors that Obama can and will "bring us together." Please note that our fight in politics are based on philosophical differences not so much about personalities. So, Obama will bring the republicans to accept abortion rights, gun control, corporate tax reform, gay marriage and other rights!
Think Again!

Think Again Hilary & McCain have the same odds accomplishing this as Obama.  I am a conservative white male over 50 from New York and will be voting for Obama. I even registered from republican to independent to vote for him in the NC primaries.  The role of president is akin to a general contractor, your only as good as the plumber, electrician & carpenter.  Your only job is to pick the right ones and get them to work together to build something.  Obama checked his ego at the door and can put the right team together to build something for America.  McCain & Hillary are only in it for themselves their words and body language tell the whole story.
Looks like Obama's getting alot of Republican votes and it's all going according to (their) plan.  If Obama end up being the Dem nominee, the Republicans will wipe up the floor with him and he'll never again be able to run for President with the same untarnished rock-star cult following he has today.  McCain will be a one-tern President and Hillary Clinton will run again for President and win.
When posting, please ensure your spelling is correct.  It also does noone any good to call out fellow posters names or mock their intelligence.  This should be a free exchange of ideas, thoughts, and comments.  Remember we're all in this together, please behave accordingly.
Actually, if the Dem's system were winner take all, Hillary would have the lead right now (if my system of awarding delegates on a winner take all basis is correct).

Of all the delegates awarded to date, if they went to the person who (by percentage) won the state, this is the delegate total I get:

Clinton -- 1069
Obama -- 998

Still extremely close, but with the shoe on the other foot, so to speak.

Hey First Read, anyway to verify that info?  Who would have the most delegates on the Dem side if it were winner take all, not proportional?

(sorry this is posted on 2 threads, wouldn't go thru before)
raider dem, maryland (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 12:29 PM)

____________

Your math is off.  It would be:

Obama - 1096
Clinton - 1049

Obama -
Alabama: 52
Alaska: 13
Colorado: 55
Connecticut: 48
Delaware: 15
District of Columbia: 15
Georgia: 87
Idaho: 18
Illinois: 153
Iowa: 45
Kansas: 32
Louisiana: 56
Maine: 24
Maryland: 70
Minnesota: 72
Missouri: 72
Nebraska: 24
North Dakota: 13
South Carolina: 45
Utah: 23
Virginia: 83
Washington: 78
US Virgin Islands: 3
Total: 1096

Clinton -
Arizona: 56
Arkansas: 35
California: 370
Massachusetts: 93
Nevada: 25
New Hampshire: 22
New Jersey: 107
New York: 232
Oklahoma: 38
Tennessee: 68
American Samoa: 3
Total: 1049


New Mexico's 26 is still undecided last I heard.  So even if she gets those, she'd still be behind in Pledged Delegates.  But, its a mute point, as that's not how the system works and you can't change the rules mid way through.
"..beware of what we are asking for or doing with this election before we throw it away based on emotiinal factors that Obama can and will "bring us together."
Concerned Democrat, NY
Francis Wilson

I caution you to be a spokesperson for african-americans, to say that Obama is a Flash in the pan is so disingenuous. The rhetoric being bantered about reminds many of us again of the election cycles of the past. Spread doubt, fear and uncertainty and divide minorities, because only the same group of people who have lead this country for 232 years can determine what is best for EVERYONE.
The word is OUT people want change, experience is what exists in the senate and congress and has it made a difference?
BL, Cincinnati, OH (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 11:04 AM)

Very well said! Also check out the Op Ed in the NY Times, this woman is disgusting.

Before buying into the 'no experience' claims against Barack check it out on his website for yourself. He has nothing to hide.

Barack, whether you admit it or not, is what we need. And it has nothing to do with his speeches, absolutely nothing.
To those who so ardently (and often vitriolically) support Senator Clinton:  the claim that Senator Obama has not "run" anything is an extremely weak argument.

And this is why, what has Senator Clinton ever run?  Apparently, in making this argument you discount running a Senatorial office or a national campaign, so what does that leave that Senator Clinton has run as an executive?  She didn't even run the Yale Law Review.  

Senator Obama has more legislative experience than Senator Clinton.  Being a First Lady does count as something, but not as "running" something; running the executive branch of our government was of course President Bill Clinton's job.  

As for how they manage, well, objective evidence points to Senator Obama as the better on that score --Senator Obama certainly has handled his campaign better by managing the money correctly, planning properly, and organizing his grassroots support.  

Senator Clinton has many fine qualities.  I suggest those of you who support her do some research, find out what those qualities are and argue those rather than making these specious arguments.  You might find your arguments are more effective when they are honest.  You might also find that Senator Obama's call to a new kind of politics is attractive-- when you are positive you feel so much better than you do rolling around in the muck.
New Mexico's 26 is still undecided last I heard.  So even if she gets those, she'd still be behind in Pledged Delegates.  But, its a mute point, as that's not how the system works and you can't change the rules mid way through.
BL, Cincinnati OH
-----------------------------------------------------
Thanks for your input BL.  According to your numbers and mine, we had very different counts for CO and MD (though I mistakenly did not include American Samoa or the Virgin Islands).  

My overall point was in response to the comment that IF the Dem system were winner take all, that Hillary would be getting pulvarized right now, that she wouldn't be relevant.  Clearly, not the case.

Any way you slice it, its still close.
Not trying to change the rules, just trying to make a point.

Thanks for the feedback.
Why is it that the Media refuses to mention the oppressed 2million+ voters from Michigan and Florida, both of whom went overwhelmingly for Clinton.  If this issue is not resolved, and these delegates are not given to Clinton, we will be repeating 2000 all over again.  Sorry, but Obama can not win, and should not win, given this scenario.  It is so sad to see the Right Wing Press giving Obama the pass, hoping that he will be crushed by McCain.  It is also so sad to see the more than 2million people being denied their vote.
Dear Disgusted - I'm pretty sure that Obama carried 90% of the African-American vote in North Dakota, too. That would explain his 62% here, and his 67% next door in Minnesota, and his 67% in Nebraska and Maine, and everywhere. He's the only national candidate we have. The racists you worry about aren't Democrats anyway.
New Mexico's 26 is still undecided last I heard.  So even if she gets those, she'd still be behind in Pledged Delegates.  But, its a mute point, as that's not how the system works and you can't change the rules mid way through.
BL, Cincinnati OH
-----------------------------------------------------
Thanks for your input BL.  According to your numbers and mine, we had very different counts for CO and MD (though I mistakenly did not include American Samoa or the Virgin Islands).  

My overall point was in response to the comment that IF the Dem system were winner take all, that Hillary would be getting pulvarized right now, that she wouldn't be relevant.  Clearly, not the case.

Any way you slice it, its still close.
Not trying to change the rules, just trying to make a point.

Thanks for the feedback.
Perhaps the most frustrating thing to me about Senator Clinton is that I have to ask, where was she 4 years ago?  She touts 35 years of experience as the primary (sole?) reason she should be selected.  Would 31 years of experience not have been enough?  Or is it pure political calculation that she did not want to run against a sitting president because it was a more difficult road to election.  Did she chose to leave us more vulnerable 4 years ago, for her own political gain?  Would she not have been the better candidate than Senator Kerry and given us a better chance to win back the presidency from Bush where the past 3 disasterous years could have been avoided?  Senator Obama understands the urgency of now.  Senator Clinton has shown that she does not.  I was proud to be able to vote for Senator Obama yesterday in the Virginia primary.
Obama the only hope for DEM's? A serious underestimation of the republicans. He will be swiftboated. Those  claims of racism, every time his record gets citicized, only works on democratic sensibilities. He has momentum on his side but a growing number of independents, centrists and undecideds are getting very nervous about the cult of personality. They will vote McCain.

In addition there will be many Clinton supporters who are  offended and disenfranchised by the obvious betrayal/abandonement of the Clintons. If  democrats start participating in the  sport of "Clinton hunting" we just help setting up Obama to be the next target: and he does not have the the experience in fighting mudslingers that the Clintons do. If you think that he is immune from the bullying and "character assination by propaganda" you don't understand republicams.
to the post by Minco at 12:52 p.m. You can say things in pretty words and pose them as concern for others if you like. However, your post is just as racist as you accuse others of being. And, please, don't lump all white people into one group and call them racist. I happen to love my bi-racial grandson with ALL MY HEART; I would die for him. Add to that I love his bi-racial father like he is my own son; I wouldn't have picked anybody different for my daughter.  You see the problem?  When people start stereotyping groups (all whites, all blacks, all Hispanics, etc)rather than looking at individuals, they hurt and offend folks. I will accept your apology for calling me a racist. You couldn't be further from the truth. If there were a voter concerned about Obama's race, you did not nothing to persuade them they're wrong.
Why is it that the Media refuses to mention the oppressed 2million+ voters from Michigan and Florida, both of whom went overwhelmingly for Clinton.  If this issue is not resolved, and these delegates are not given to Clinton, we will be repeating 2000 all over again.  Sorry, but Obama can not win, and should not win, given this scenario.  It is so sad to see the Right Wing Press giving Obama the pass, hoping that he will be crushed by McCain.  It is also so sad to see the more than 2million people being denied their vote.

Jason, Cambridge MA

I don't know Jason? Maybe it's because all Democratic candidates pledged not to campaign in Michigan or Florida, because both states violated DNC calendar rules that their own DNC  delegates agreed to, knowing the penalty would be a loss of delegates. If Michigan and Florida voters are upset that a select few of their citizen's won't get to attend the convention in Denver, they should be mad at their own representatives, either the ones to the DNC convention that agreed to the calendar, and the penalty (no delegates- a contest that doesn't count), or their elected leaders (surprise Hillary supporters trying to "help Hillary") who scheduled their primaries in violation of the calendar with full knowledge of the result. The joke is on Michigan and Florida's elected leaders they violated the calendar to be relevant, instead all Democrats pledged not to campaign there and agreed the votes won't count, and they wouldn't try to seat them. So before Iowa and NH the candidates did ignore Michigan, and they continued to ignore Florida after Nevada, but after Clinton was crushed in South Carolina she went to Florida for her victory speech (how pathetic), and has since been trying to get Florida and Michigan to count. What a joke! If Florida and Michigan had played by the rules and either scheduled primaries 2/5 or any day in February after 2/5, they would receive the attention they so craved.  Also, you seem to forget that 40% of those who turned out to vote in the Michigan primary voted for "other", more than 50% of Michigan's male Democrats didn't vote for Clinton despite the fact only she and Dodd had failed to ask that their names be removed from the ballot. If Florida had not had an important tax/education issue on the ballot, how many Floridians would have shown up to vote when they knew there was no contest?
I may be one of the few, but I thought for months that MSNBC pundits were all hyping Obama, because
he is something new.  I could not help but laugh
at all of them when they realized Hillary was actually winning in New Hampshire.  Are the blacks
racist for voting 90% for Obama, at least the white
people are splitting it and may be giving more thought to the process than blacks.  Only time will
tell who will win, as for me I can take either one
as the nominee.

Senator Clinton is highly intelligent, has hands-on experience regarding all the major issues, and will get the job done; unlike Obama, who states he will rely on others where he is less knowledgeable or experienced (that covers a lot of territory).  The media (MSNBC???) "reports" on the Obama party train, as opposed to the candidates' stances on the issues and what each will do if elected.  The media is not to hype any one candidate, but to report and educate, giving people the tools they need to make intelligent decisions based on the issues.  It is unconscionable, not to mention irresponsible, for any news medium to tout one candidate over another.  Yes, some people are easily led; however, it is irresponsible, prior to voting, to psyche them into some rah-rah, feel-good movement, which does nothing but satiate and placate a citizenry hungry for hope and a new administration.  As an American I see my country dividing into many camps.  I do not understand why women and men are not ready to vote for a highly qualified, powerful, and dynamic woman.  Women have led in other countries for centuries.  Why do we fear this leadership by women?  Experience is an absolute necessity in order for change to take hold in an organized, linear manner, and a must when working within the structures of diplomacy on a global level.  It is imperative the next president be ready to take the helm immediately; we cannot play catch-up, nor will we have time for Obama's "learning curve."   Not only has Senator Clinton worked for the better health and education of all children since graduating law school, but she presented universal health care many years ago (remember?), only to be stopped by a multitude of adversaries on every side, in particular, every Republican in office, doctors, special interest groups, and big insurance companies.    
Francis Wilson,

You obviously don't remember when the Rev's Jackson and Sharpton ran for the presidency. Black people didn't vote for them in large numbers. Why? Because they were not that qualified for the position although they did some good things.

Black people are voting for Barack because he is the most qualified candidate that happens to be half black. Stop using the race card because it doesn't fit here and give black people more credit than that.

And what about when Bill Clinton was getting 90% of the black vote, nobody was saying anything then, so just stop it with the "because he's black" because it's not the reason why black people are supporting him.
I'm no expert delegate counter, but it seems to me that it is a bad idea to spit in the face of the 15 "insignificant" states yet to vote. Here is my admittedly rudimentary delegate math:

Current pleged delegates:
Obama 1078
Clinton 969

Assuming Clinton wins 55% of the 577 delegates in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, that would give her 317 delegates, and Obama would get 260.

Then, assume there is a backlash in the remaining states because Clinton thinks they are insignificant. We'll say Obama wins 55% of those 735 delegates. That would give him 404 delegates and Clinton would get 331.

At the end of the day, here would be the final pleged delegate count:
Obama 1742
Clinton 1617

If Clinton is counting on Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, she will have to have the superdelegates to win. I really doubt they will go against a margin of over 100 pleged delegates.
One of the more amusing factoids about last night's events was that when Hillary was giving her stump speech (boooring) in El Paso, a young man sitting right in front of her (but partially obscured by an Anmerican flag on the stage) was wearing an OBMAMA T-shirt. Chuck Todd: review the video -- it's pretty funny, and she couldn't have missed it; he was probably in the second row.
I grow tired of reading all these messages but I read on beacause even though it may seem that we are all different in some way we are all much alike! We are, as a people, the United States Of America! We as a people dictate to the world how strong and united we are! American people band together when we are confronted face to face by the enemy, after 9/11 we were united as a country for quite some time. I feel as if we are angry at ourselves so much we need to blame some one else. 9/11 has worked and it is showing through at this very moment in our country. Unfortunately people died on 9/11 but what else has happened is that we are so afraid now of another attack by the enemy on our own soil we have changed the way we live! Our economy took a hit so we had to jump start it! The Big 3 in detroit lowered interest rates, sales went up and people grew dependant on low interest rates. While the focus was on low interest rates the housing industry spiked and we as a country started to get hungry for more money so what do we do we bent the rules or did not disclose a few things and clients purchased homes they could not afford. We became addicted to low interest rates and what happens we de-valued vehicles homes and finally the dollar. Now the terrorist have us right where they want us! Now get this, as a country we are in debt up to our eyebrows, we are fighting a war that doesn't make sense in another country. Our military forces are spread thin! The analyst say we are close to a recession if not already there so what do we do, we borrow money for a stimulis plan that will not work only put us in deeper debt! Then top that with an election that divides us even more as a country. Our country is like a bomb ready to go off! One terrorist incident and we could be put over the top. We are very vulnerable right now for any attack! So what do we do? We start bringing our troops home, unfortunately we may have to leave some behind to continue to help the iraqi people. We started it now we have to finish it. We save some money but not having a full force over in iraq. We cannot wait for the next president to be elected it could prove to be to late. We as americans cannot give in to this economic stimulis package, send your checks back to the federal government and say thanks but no thanks.We tell them to save the money to start to pay off our debt. Now this is where it gets tricky, we as americans all americans have to start being more giving if Mr. Obama can raise millions in just a few short months then why wouldn't we be able to donate to ourselves to our childrens future and beyond! Give back to your country remember JFK! I am ready to give back to my country in the form of money if it will help us believe in us as a country again! For all you people who say this will not work you are the people who will try to make money off this movement we do not need you. If you had a chance to give a few dollars back to our failed government and we actually had some people we could trust to handle all the money why wouldn't you. If you do not have money some blood sweat and tears will work. No persons over 65 unless you want to, you have given enough to this country now it's time we give back to you! So let's begin! I can only imagine what it would be like to walk side by side with my fellow Americans to rebuild this Great United States of ours! So today we take back what is our's tomorrow the world watches and we become respected again! Then we learn from our mistakes! For the people, by the people!
BAD Move HILLARY! You are preparing to solicit the Hispanic vote in Texas. Yet, you fire(or get rid of) your Hispanic Campaign Manager just before you get there. What's up with that! Now, we all know that thing are not going well in your campaign, and you are on the verge of losing your possible "Super Delagate" supporters. So, you had to unload some of your "expendable" staffers. Really,I don't think the Hispanic voters in Texas (or any place else) are so stupid as to believe that She left because of being lonely for her family. She was probably lonely for her family the first day on the Job but she committed her time to you. And her family was probably proud for her to be the first to hold such a position. People just don't drop a honored position such as "Campaign Manager" on a whim -- admit it -- She served your perpose and you no longer need her. "SLAM BAM THANK-YA MAAAAM!"


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