First thoughts: Mr. Front-runner

Posted: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The statistical front-runner: No matter how one slices the election results from last night, there's no denying that Obama is the statistical front-runner. He's got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here's our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Barack Obama taking a clear lead in the Democratic delegate count.

*** Staying on the statistical front: Check out these cumulative vote totals for primaries and caucuses to date:
States Awarding Delegates
                    Total Vote      %
Obama         9,373,334       50%
Clinton          8,674,779       46%
Others          726,095         4%

With Florida
                    Total Vote         %
Obama         9,942,375        49%
Clinton          9,531,987        46%
Others          984,236         4%

With Florida and Michigan
                     Total Vote         %
Obama         9,942,375        47%
Clinton          9,860,138        47%
Others        1,249,922         6%

*** Follow the leader: So no matter how you slice the total popular vote, Obama is the leader. He's at 50% in states that have awarded delegates; he's at 49% and leads Clinton by 3 points in states where both their names were on the ballot, and his lead is big enough that he leads even when you factor in Michigan where Obama's name wasn't on the ballot. Why does this popular vote total matter? Because it's yet another important talking point when wooing superdelegates. How many supers will be comfortable voting against the candidate who's leading in the pledged delegate count and the total vote count?

*** So now what? This Democratic race has two finish lines. One could be as early as March 4. An Obama victory in either of the big states would probably put the pledged delegate count out of reach for Clinton and would allow Obama to disprove the idea that he either can't win Latinos or blue-collar white Democrats. Should Clinton sweep those big March 4 states, the race goes on to the end and becomes a rhetorical fight over stats and polls. The stats being the ones we've cited above (the pledged delegate count and the national vote totals), as well as the Democratic candidates' standing against John McCain in the national polls. But one other thing to ponder: No one ever writes off a Clinton. How do we know? If Clinton were in the position Obama's in right now, how many folks would be writing Obama's obit?

*** The rhetorical front-runners: Watching all three post-Chesapeake Tuesday speeches last night, one could sense the two candidates who believed they were headed to the general election. Obama and McCain spoke back-to-back, and it was as close to a debate as two have had. Obama's speech was laced with more McCain references than any of his speeches to date. He regularly referred to "Bush-McCain" ideas. In response, McCain had some biting shots at Obama; McCain wordsmith Mark Salter, after all, knows how to take a poke at an opponent.

***

Hope vs. platitudes: Some choice McCain excerpts last night at Obama: "Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience... To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude… I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. I seek the presidency with the humility of a man who cannot forget that my country saved me." That last line was probably the most pointed. Of course, the Obama folks will point to the dramatic generational contrast that's being set up. McCain's backdrop last night? A couple of retiring and aging pols, joined by a crowd of 250. Obama's backdrop? Seventeen-thousand screaming believers of all ages, ethnicities, and backgrounds.

*** Dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge: As for McCain, he dodged a bullet in Virginia. Obama almost propelled Huckabee to an upset victory in the Old Dominion. How? Because Obama drew a bunch of independents and even a chunk of moderate Republicans, making the Virginia GOP electorate a lot more conservative than it was eight years ago. But McCain survived, and now the calendar gets a lot tougher for Huckabee. Wisconsin has similar rules as Virginia, meaning McCain could face a far more conservative electorate because of Obama's appeal to independents and Republicans, but the evangelical base in Wisconsin is not nearly as large as it is in Virginia. The numbers suggest McCain should officially secure the GOP nod on March 4.

*** Edwards watch: Did anyone else find this quote in today’s New York Times a bit interesting? "You can't make a judgment until Ohio and Texas," said Jonathan Prince, who was a senior adviser to John Edwards of North Carolina, who quit the race two weeks ago. "In this campaign, every time he has surged ahead, voters take a pause. If momentum keeps slamming into a wall, than you do have to come down to the numbers." Is this what Edwards is thinking about in an eventual endorsement?

*** Is it still 2006? Two incumbent members of Congress from Maryland -- Al Wynn (D) and Wayne Gilchrest (R) -- lost their primaries last night.

*** On the trail: Clinton is in South Texas, where she campaigns in McAllen (which, for the reporters covering her there, has the best Tex-Mex in the world), Robstown (home of famous Joe Cotton’s BBQ), and San Antonio; McCain is in DC, where he holds a media avail with GOP members of Congress and later raises money; and Obama is in Wisconsin, where he stumps in Janesville, Waukesha, and Racine.

Countdown to Hawaii and Wisconsin: 6 days
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 13
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 265 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 342 days

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Comments

It seems that John Edwards is not only becoming less and less relevant as time passes, but his endorsement could even be seen as a negative for the Obama campaign. If it appears that they've energetically courted him this late in the game, they look solicitous to his preening egotism. For someone presumed to be close to Edwards to suggest that the former senator is either waiting to endorse the clear winner or to bestow his benediction as if it would settle things should the race be deadlocked, makes any endorsement even less important. And if his endorsement was ever of any consequence, it needed to have been made before the bulk of his support amongst primary voters swung (it would seem so) to Senator Obama. It might be more than coincidence that the victories the Obama campaign has achieved became more resounding soon after Edwards dropped out.

Russ Elba, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:18 AM)

Not a word last night from Hillary re the results in Maryland, D.C. & Virginia. No call of congrats to Barack, as is customary. Just straight to pandering in Texas. These folks are 1000% more intelligent than she gives them credit for.

JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:18 AM)

I hate that Hillary Clinton is unapologetically calling upon superdelegates to steal the nomination for her. She has lost the most states. She lags in pledged delegates AND the popular vote. I mean, really, if she doesn't have the popular vote OR pledged delegate lead, which she does not at this time and may not get back, why should superdelegates go with her anyway?! "Shame on you," a la Bill Clinton, if you think that they should. That just means you are willing to steal the election too.

Also, every reasonable pundit states that there is no way FL and MI will be seated in the way that Hillary wants them to be. I am not saying that they will not be seated; however, even IF they are, the delegate count is likely to be reduced to account for the unfairness, or they will be made to have a caucus or primary again.

Obama is brilliant. You do not graduate from Harvard law first in your class, and, dethrone the presumed heir to the Democratic nomination without being so. His campaign has been splendid -and I also believe he will better our great country. Inspiration is a part of the puzzle; the other part is he's just sharper than Hillary who is running using old tricks, old techniques and the fledgling support of old timers. I wish that she would exit with grace, and not become the Huckabee of the DNC -actually, even Huckabee doesn't have 47% of Americans stating that unequivocally would never vote for him.

I am proud to have voted for Obama yesterday, in his second winning sweep of the the month. I look forward to Hillary losing Ohio, Texas and/or Pennsylvania, all of which she has to win now. Here's to transparency and ethics!

Marie, Maryland (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:19 AM)

A sign and speech does not cut it for me.

Cheri M Danbury WI

Cheri,
You need to learn to read & listen. I felt the same about both candidates till I took the time to do some research. Niether candidate will spell out in detail what or how they plan their policies in ther "stump" speeches! No responsible citizen should make their decision based solely on general speeches or trust the info hand fed to them by the media. Listen to the last debate, look at their voting record and check their websites!

Larry, Simi Valley, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:20 AM)

Geez, it's looking like an OBAMA NATION....

Vote for Mama, not Obama.

SadStateOfAffairs (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:20 AM)

Unfortunately for McCain, most people probably don’t know what the word “platitude” means. For the record, a platitude is “A trite or banal remark or statement, especially one expressed as if it were original or significant.”

(Trite means “lacking in freshness or effectiveness because of constant use or excessive repetition.” Banal means “Drearily commonplace and often predictable.”)

Note for McCain – when trying to convince a younger generation raised on pause and fast forward to vote for their great-grandpa instead of the cool guy, it’s best not to use words whose definitions also require definitions.

Seth Doria, St. Louis, MO (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:21 AM)

I still think Hillary's choice of an intro song at last night's rally should have got a little more notice (Where the Streets Have No Name by U2)- Opening lines- "I want to run, I want to hide..." Seems to be a mantra in the Clinton campaign these days.

Michael (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:23 AM)

Obama is leading in all the delegate counts and popular votes. There's no use in people trying to deny his excellence in campaigning or speaking or in motivating. What's so wrong with giving people hope and believing that hope is a real vehicle of change? The skeptics about this guy continue to contradict themselves. Either you want things to stay the same way OR you don't. If you do, then you will support Obama. To Hillary's credit, she had her time and did some great things along the way. However, her time is up! She's now trying to sound more like him in order to become more appealing. It's not going to work, because it's not genuine. Take a bow and leave gracefully.

I wish Obama the best. I have heard his stance on issues. Those who have not must subcribe to selective listening. You can always go to his site barackobama.com . His positions on the issues are clearly outlined just as Hillary's is on her site. Plus those issues have been discussed THROUGHOULY in numerous debates. Just because the man is eloquent, convincing, and confident does not diminish his ability to be President nor does it stand in the place of his position on the issues. Get off your jealousy boats and give the man and his excellent campaigning credit where it's due. OBAMA 08! THE TIME IS NOW. PERIOD!

jodi from jerzeee (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:23 AM)

if you people can't see what's going to happen if obama, oprah, jesse jackson, and al sharpton get in the white house then your blinded by his b.s. 99% of african americans are voting for him, if that doesn't tell all of you young white voters what's coming down the pike, nothing will. if he makes it into the white house, white people as a whole will be done. i'm 45 years old, i voted democrat all my life, but i'll vote for mccain before i vote for him.

shocked, pittsburgh, pa (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:24 AM)

I credit Obama for rising above the din of Clinton's attacks and for staying on message about creating a bright and secure future for ourslves and our children. A future where we regain our place of leadership in the world....not just economically, but morally too. Its pretty apparent that the Clintons are not the people to help us regain a leadership role when it comes to morality. Neither one seems to have an accurate moral compass.

Brian, MIllstone, New Jersey (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:24 AM)

I agree that the Edwards endorsement will be pretty much irrelevant after Texas/Ohio. I was an ardent Edwards supporter before he dropped, and now I oscillate between the two remaining candidates (sorry Gravel), having to decide between voting with my heart for a candidate who inspires me and yet I know next to nothing about, and have no clear plan on what his strengths would be in such an important administrative office (I'd hire the person as my speechwriter any day of the week, however); or voting for someone who I know would be apt in the position but would only certainly further the partisan, manipulative pocket-lining that has made the American government the oily crotch stain of the modern world.

Anyway, as much as I would've liked to see Edwards win the primary, his endorsement of either candidate for me would mean little. Endorsements can rarely if ever be taken at face value: that the endorser "belives so-and-so is the best candidate". Endorsements are just people hitching rides on gravy trains and trying to get into a position of favor with people of power. I don't place a bet on a horse because I think the horse would be the most suitable horse to lead the Kentucy Derby to prosperity. I just back a horse cuz I think that horse will win and I'll get my 2:1 odds payoff on it.

So Edwards endorsing either candidate wouldn't help me with my problematic decision.

Steven, Mobile, AL (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:24 AM)

Obama is the candidate who can carry us to victory. The choice in November will be clear: Continue on with the Bush agenda - perpetual war that will bankrupt the USA, more tax cuts for the rich, destruction of the civil liberties we hold so dear as Americans? That is McCain's platform and he is stuck with it. Obama will offer a CLEAR DIFFERENCE. He has steadfastly opposed all those things. While Hillary has supported many of them and she will NOT be able to run from her voting record. If forced to choose between BUSH and BUSH LITE, too many Americans will vote for the real thing - McCain. At least, they know he BELIEVES on continuing the Bush Agenda. Hillary will take us down in flames. Party bosses, take n ote: OBAMA IS THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE. Rebuke the people at your own peril.

Susan Garcia, US citizen in Bocas del Toro, Panama (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:28 AM)

I'm sorry, I started this election ready to go to war for Hillary, but Barack has just won me over. I can't help but think that when he and McCain are standing side-by-side at the debates, people will not be able to take their eyes off of him.

I do feel for Hillary, and think she would have made a fine president, but the times have just changed.

Oscar, Tampa Florida (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:28 AM)

The human brain is not fully developed till you're 25 - and most fanatic Obama supporters are under 25, so they should be forgiven. They will get wiser!

Hillary 08!!!

Martin (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:28 AM)

To all of you Clinton Haters and Obama Lovers, just remember. If you don't get the Clinton Voters the democrats don't get the Whitehouse. Keep talking the TRASH. You have turned me off. I am voting for Mccain!

Democrat, California (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:29 AM)

Internal commmunication and memo's show that Clinton's strategy and campaign had some serious flaws reaching back to her 2006 senate re-election. Obama's appeal plus Bush Administration is helping to pick off larger numbers of independents, which has further hurt McCain.

However, I'd like to offer another alternative for Hillary and McCain's troubles. Candidates from the Senate who try to run for President. Obama, while I do believe he has the experience and leadership, has only been in the US Senate for 3 years. The last President that came from the Senate was Kennedy 47 years ago. All others since were either VPs or Governors. In this age of ever expanding media access, the senate is no place to bread a Presidential candidate. That branch of goverment breads a very different set of skills than those needed to run for President. And all those votes and high profile wheeling and dealing comes back to haunt future candidate. Hillary's vote for the war isolated parts of her base. McCain's vote against tax cuts isolated parts of his base.

When will politicians learn that congress is not launching pad to the White House. How many have tried and failed in this age of media since Watergate.

Jeff, Hoboken (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:29 AM)

The human brain is not fully developed till you're 25 - and most fanatic Obama supporters are under 25, so they should be forgiven. They will get wiser!

Hillary 08!!!

Martin (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:29 AM)

The Clintons are still a very formidable candidate who has proven time & time again that they can come back.

Stay tuned....
Ivan, Washington, DC (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:44 AM)

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

Ivan...

The Clintons have some problems this Morning
1) 8 Obama Wins in a row - no matter how you slice it - that's a fact.

2) Firing of Solis-Doyle is not sitting well with Latin Super Delegates ad other Latins...this has 3 weeks to become a real problem for the Campaign.

3) If you look at the exit polls and groups of people who voted - Obama is cutting into her base: Women, Working Class, White Men...she can't lose these groups in Texas and Ohio...if she wants to win

4) She keeps changing who she is. After Iowa - A group of Old people who looked like they were ready to tour an assisted living facility standing behind her...(Like McCain's crowd last night)After New Hampshire - signs read change and all young people behind her. Last night all Latin People behind her. Baracks Crowd consistantly Very large and Mixed. Hers seems to be hand picked by state.

5) In order to stay in the game she has to win by large margins going forward about 60% to stay competitive according to the math....

6) If Barack Wins Wisconsin (which she is not campaigning in - Mistake) and Hawaii that gives him 10 in a row. She has come back from a loss or two but not 10 in a row. There is a Psychological game going on with voters too - and people are seeing this.

I am not saying she can't come back...She may but even her supporters have to admit it's a total up hill climb. They are still paying for Bills bad behavior on the campaign trail and Caucus and negative AA comments they have made and may continue to pay.....in Votes.....

Independent in CA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:30 AM)

Jaycee's message is right on. In case you still have doubts about Obama, I recommend the excellent article in the December issue of Atlantic Monthly entitled "Goodbye To All That: Why Obama Matters" (it's on line).

John Mehan, San Francisco, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:32 AM)

"To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude"

why is McCain dissing Reagan?

nuanced (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:33 AM)

I am a 59 year old male caucasian life-long Democrat and have been a somewhat resigned Clinton supporter in Texas. My political views are moderate, but I'd almost NEVER vote for a Republican. I have been thoroughly disgusted with the past seven years of Republican and conservative control.

I have been in sales for 35 years and have learned something about the art of sales, an honorable profession.

Over the past 48 hours I have found myself drawn to Barack Obama after listening to three of his speeches. I've sat back in the past 24 hours and analyzed why.

Barack Obama is not talking about himself. He is talking about his audience and positioning himself with his audience. He is making it very clear in his communication that he is one of us and that TOGETHER, WE can make things happen. Hillary Rodham Clinton isn't doing that, and she is destroying herself in the process. She is using the word "I" and making everything about her in the process. This style no longer sells product, and it doesn't sell concepts.

The marketplace changed over the ninties and into the 00's. A new generation came of age. Clinton's campaign may have Mark Penn and his micro-targeting. That's important, but it is only one piece of the jigsaw puzzle. The message is just as critical if not moreso. I get the impression that the balance of her staff are PR flacks and that there is a lot of in-fighting and fear in the management ranks. If anyone on her staff REALLY knows how to A+ market in today's marketplace, they aren't being listened to. Unfortunately, most likely it is WAY too late to totally revamp the message. Additionally, my suspiscion is that Ms Clinton wants the style and message to be what it is--it is the essential Hillary Clinton. I think she has some great ideas but she doesn't have a clue how to sell them nor, I suspect, does she understand how to manage people. Yes, she has some very loyal staffers. But are they loyal out of inspiration, or are they loyal out of fear?

During Bill Clinton's presidency, he lost both Houses of Congress, inadvertently helped drive a strong influence of conservative politicos, and through poor personal behavior, set the nation on a course of extremely poor policy and governance over the past 8 years.

Through their approach to life, Bill and Hillary Clinton have triggered incredible hostility and hate on the other side of the aisle. Granted that the Republicans have been viscious in their opposition. However, effective salesmanship and better understanding of people and how to communicate could have mitigated a lot of the ill will. Hillary Clinton is hated by so many in this country because she has been unable to sell herself and relate to people beyond New York State.

Fact is, Barack Obama isn't hiding his positions on the issues. He isn't hiding his plans for government. It's all laid out on his website. Anybody who has access to the Web can read it. However, Obama and his speechwriters know how to win friends and influence people. They know what people want and how to effectively communicate with them. People don't enjoy listening to policy wonk speeches, and they don't like to sit and listen to people talk about themselves. Obama knows that.

In my book, if you have the right policy positions, and if you know how to communicate with people, understand what makes them tick, and how to motivate them, you'll be an effective leader and great manager.

Hillary Clinton may have the right policy positions, but she couldn't manage the health care bill project in the early '90's, and she still can't manage a well run campaign. She doesn't understand that it's about the voters, not about her.

Barack, you just won my vote.

yodacohen, Houston, TX (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:35 AM)

I am a Democrat and a Hillary supporter in Mississippi. Ya'll can talk up Obama all you want, he will never win one dang State in the South in the general, he will loose the western hispanic population and for all his talk of hope.. well he can hope his way to killing the democratic party. Him against McCain is an easy choice: McCain! If Hillary doesn't win the nomination, get ready for 8 more years of the same. McCain has already taken Hillary's motto of ready on day one. They can't wait to trounce on his drug use, using his full name Barrack Hussein Obama, his muslim school, etc. You guys in the media are giving Obama a cakewalk into his downfall, and God help us but I believe he wil take down the Democratic party with him. Its too bad you guys won't jump on anything that the Republicans are waiting for to attack him on, but love to trounce Hillary's shortcomings. Its amazing how she is winning the blue states or coming close and the red states are going overwhelmingly for Obama. Thats a sign people! WAKE UP AND VOTE WITH YOUR MIND!

Wess, Ridgeland, Mississippi (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:35 AM)

Although Obama is a remarkable presidential candidate, the 8% of republicans who voted for Obama accounts for probably 4% of republicans who sacificed a republican vote in order to make sure "the Clintons" would be stifled.
When entering my polling place, I had to choose either a rep. or dem. paper ballot thus squelching any discrete plan of doing this myself. As I voiced my disappointment that all candidates were not listed on one ballot, a fellow next to me said he " I know what your thinking" with a grin. Later, as we were exiting simultaniously, I found out he had considered the same tact. in the end we both voted for McCain

Carrie D., Yorktown, Va (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:36 AM)

Watching those two star-struck liberal losers Keith Olberman and Chris Matthews fawning all over Obama was pathetic. Those two "reporters" were still saying that McCain was barely winning Va. while the results at the bottom of the screen showed his margin increasing to over 40,000.

Ken, Long Island, New York (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:36 AM)

Cheri M Danbury WI:'...Mr. Obama and state what your exact "change" consists of. Start the debates now. A sign and speech does not cut it for me...'

Obama seems to be running a pretty good campaign on his own.
If you REALLY want to know what he stands for, do a little READING. That's pretty simple... Isn't it ?

Obama is doing just fine the way he's campaigning

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 10:38 AM)

shocked pittsburg-You are telling us that you are not voting democrat (the way you have your whole life) because Obama is black? What kind of democrat are you? What kind of person are you? If you want to continue down the path of destruction that our current president has sent us, then leave your lifelong party and vote for McCain. I guess he MUST be the right person for the job just because of the color of his skin!!

Montana in Montana (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 12:55 PM)

McCain vs Obama

Win - Win in my book. Two men who love their country more than themselves and are willing to respect the other side. Either will have to work with a closely divided Congress, so comprimise will be key to passing legislation.

SL, NJ (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 12:56 PM)

I amd pleased at Obama's victory last night. Onward and upward. Go Oboma!

Carol (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 12:59 PM)

Obama has a lot of Republicans voting for him and it looks like all is going as they've planned. If Obama ends up being the Dem nominee, the Republicans will wipe the floor with him. He'll never ba able to run again untarnished with the same blind rock-star cult following he has today. McCain will be a one-tern President, and Hillary will run again and win the Presidencey in 4 years.

I challenge MSNBC to publish this comment!

Martha, Tobyhanna PA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:06 PM)

First, as someone who has loads of family living in Texas, I wholeheartedly agree with the reporter about the Tex-Mex in Southern Texas-- anyone who can should check it out. It is amazing. If I could, I would have it delivered weekly.

Second, I know some of the moderate Republicans voting Obama (in fact, I have swayed some of them). These folks are voting for Senator Obama because they long (like many of us) for a President who actually works for the People and the good of the Country, rather than the next election. They are also disenchanted with the way their own party exercised power. Considering the sadness and yes, embarrassment generated by the incompetence and corruption of the last 7 years who can blame them?

Third, Senator Kennedy, Senator Kerry and the other Senators and Representatives behind Senator Obama give him something he needs: skilled legislators in the Congress ready and able to help craft workable legislation and push Senator Obama's legislative agenda through Congress. As Senator Obama repeatedly says "Yes we can." He knows he cannot do this alone; instead, he asks all of us to assist.

Fourth, to all of you who spout such venom with regard to Senator Obama, or who still feel he lacks specifics, I encourage you -- no, I DARE you -- to go to Senator Obama's web site:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/contact/

and listen with your mind open, or read his detailed policy proposals without bias.

If you do this, I believe you will find that Senator Obama is exactly the right candidate for this moment to be President of the United States.

Yes we can, America, believe it! Obama '08.

Kim, Pasadena, CA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:07 PM)

Well Said Ron, Tx

All of the people asking what Barack Obama is going to change? Open your eyes! He's -already- changed the game! You have record breaking fundraising happening all over the place, Republicans and independents swooning over a democrat, young people -actually- voting, people -actually- realizing that Washington doesn't have to be a big sessepool... he's got Hillary scared to death of going negative and he's got her fundraisers walking on eggshells.

Wanna know what he's going to change? Start listening to what he says! Your lack of education on the subject is growing tired. Nobody likes a broken record, especially when it's a bad track.

Ethics reform, iraq, governmental transparency, energy reform, health care, foreign policy, diplomacy, etc etc the list goes on and on. You Clintonites harp that he's all talk, and then turn around and criticize his ideas in the very next sentence. Grow up.

Sophia, Los Angeles Ca (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:10 PM)

Obama just doesn't have the guts to make the tough decisions. If Hillary doesn't get the nod, I'll take a serious look at McCain although my biggest concern is that McCain could appoint some Supreme Court justices that are just too conservative.

However, I believe that both Clinton and McCain could stand up to international threats, although I think Clinton is the only one that can pull America back from the economic precipice.

Obama's just another pretty face with pretty words. I want a president with a backbone, not a wishbone.

Peter, Baltimore, MD (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:11 PM)

CLINTON did NOT CAMPAIGN IN FLORIDA but I WATCHED & OBAMA COMMERCIALS IN THE LEAD UP TO THE FLORIDA PRIMARY> WHEN ASKED OBAMA SAID (just like your average POLITICIAN) THAT HE WASN't AWARE THAT THE NATIONAL BUY THEY DID WOULD ALSO SHOW IN FLORIDA. HOLY COW!! HE"S SOOOOOO BRILLIANT HUH? HE SOUND LIKE A LIAR OR A FOOL LIKE W> GET REAL OBAMA SUPPORTERS THE TRIAL OF HIS BUDDY--THE CHICAGO SLUM LORD IS COMING IN MARCH --GO AHEAD AND NOMINATE THIS DO NOTHING--VOTE "PRESENT" --"YES WE CAN" NOTHING INFO-MERCIAL AND WATCH THE TRAIN WRECK HAPPEN IN NOVEMBER!!THEN ALL THE AIRHEADS THAT THINK HES SO FAB WILL WINE ABOUT ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF IRAQ under MCCAIN!! VOTE ON ISSUES AND TRACK RECORD --SO MANY THINK THEY CAN VOTE ON THEIR PERCEPTION OF THE CANDIDATES CHARACTER--PLEEEEEEEZ---HOW MANY OF YOU VOTED FOR BUSH BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT GORE WAS A KNOW IT ALL AND YOU COULDNT STAND THE IDEA OF HIM AS PREZ AND COULD SEE YOURSELF HAVIN A BEER WITH W. THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE SOLID JUDGEMENT THAT VOTERS THEN AND APPARENTLY NOW OFFER US IN THE MIDDLE CLASS!! MORE POLITICS AS USUAL AND ANOTHER TRILLION BUCKS DOWN THE DRAIN--BECAUSE YOU T-H-I-N-K OBAMAARAMA IS DIFFERENT. GIVE ME A BREAK!!

PM (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:12 PM)

OHIO Republicans are voting for OBAMA in the primary AND in the general election.

No matter how outstanding any one candidate may be as President of the United States, he or she cannot do the job alone. The President must connect with the nation: he or she must inspire the country if not the world to get off our posteriors, turn off the television, get outside into our neighborhoods and communities and do the things that must be done that collectively will make our nation a Great Nation.

I submit that the best candidate for the job of President of the United States is not a hammer, but a healer. Not all of the problems we face are nails. I reject any candidate that summarily assumes that all members of the opposing party are the enemy, and the leaders of nations in turmoil will not meet us on common ground.

Mine is not a position of idealistic youth, but rather practicality. The old way of sticking out one’s chin and inviting the first blow doesn’t work. The most effective route to change I have seen begins with leading by example. We must strive to live by the highest ideals and principles of our culture rather than resigning ourselves to our lowest common denominator. If we lapse, we must try again. If we succeed, we must not be satisfied.

Obama in the Oval Office
20 January 2009

Vote On Paper, Findlay, OHIO (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:13 PM)

Obama will not get my vote. I have found his campaign to be insincere and the cult following just plain bizarre.

Krs, Keizer, OR (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:14 PM)

While some Republicans might have crossed over to stop Hillary, I think it was a small amount. Most of them were making their protest vote (in VA anyway) with Huckabee. One of my friends, who is very conservative, said to me the other day, "Even though that Obama guy is a Muslim, I still really like him." There was no point in correcting her, but it made me smile. What's wrong with wanting a president with enough hope and inspiration to fill all of our hearts? We who live in the DC area are so sick and tired of political infighting--it's around us day and night. That's why Hillary lost this area, not because of the black vote but because of the "we're sick of you" vote. I feel badly for her, but she should have known that after 8 years of the Clinton presidency, though we loved Bill, we were sick of the division. People couldn't even have dinner together anymore, wouldn't let their kids play together, stopped talking...The Clintons polarized our nation and we in the DC area can't forget it. I'd much rather have someone in there who can mend fences, and though I will completely support Obama, John McCain would be more acceptable to me than Hillary.

LB, Washington DC (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:15 PM)

I love it! Place a Clinton ion a corner and watch the nastiness begin. As a conservative without a dog this year it is so nice to see the Dems destroy themselves. Maybe there is hope after all?

Richard, Golden, CO (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:15 PM)

The game ain't over yet. Just another reason the media should be reined in during campaigns. Hillary is doing VERY well and could gain the advantage with a few of the big states left.
Why no criticism of Obama? All this non-thinking by 'Bama nuts is nauseating.

JMK (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 1:16 PM)

New Mexico's 26 is still undecided last I heard. So even if she gets those, she'd still be behind in Pledged Delegates. But, its a mute point, as that's not how the system works and you can't change the rules mid way through.
BL, Cincinnati OH
-----------------------------------------------------
Thanks for your input BL. According to your numbers and mine, we had very different counts for CO and MD (though I mistakenly did not include American Samoa or the Virgin Islands).

My overall point was in response to the comment that IF the Dem system were winner take all, that Hillary would be getting pulvarized right now, that she wouldn't be relevant. Clearly, not the case.

Any way you slice it, its still close.
Not trying to change the rules, just trying to make a point.

Thanks for the feedback.

raider dem, maryland (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:17 PM)

I'm glad to see so many people would be willing to send their friends and family off to a war they shouldn't be fighting in let alone dying in for the next 100 years by voting for McCain,just in spite of Barack Obama. Kudos to you guys for taking this country so seriously.

MC, WI (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 4:59 PM)

Well Obama has tried to play JFK and MLK and now he is playing a new role: SC (Santa Claus) and FDR. Promises a quarter of a trillion dollars to create jobs in "green" industries and infrastructure construction. Oh and it's already paid for, according to BO. End the war (paid for with debt), increase corporate taxes and taxes on "wealthy" individuals (increased taxes).

I especially liked the line where he says this GM auto plant can be around for another 100 years if it retools, WITH THE GOVERNMENTS HELP (corporate welfare)

Where's the change BO? More government spending, increased taxes, and socialistic corporate welfare. Looks like a Dem, smells like a Dem, talks like a Dem....must be a same old tax and spend liberal.

Keep it coming BO. You'll rally the conservative base before it's over with!!!

Don't drink the Obama-Aid (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:02 PM)

I'm amazed how many people still don't get it. Lots of people don't know much about Obama, or think he lacks experience, but lots MORE folks ABSOLUTELY HATE HILLARY!! Nominating her is the only thing that will wake the sleeping and dispirited right-wing giant. Nominate Hillary, you suffer through 4 years of President McCain (or, as is not statistically unlikely given his advancing years, some period under the thumb of McCain's VP - President Romney? President Huckabee? RIP USA).

Dave in NM (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:04 PM)

I admire John McCain for his military service to our country, but we are now talking about the Presidency. He is preaching the same rehashed crap from the past eight years, which we don't need. I think he should be Swiftboated the first day of the campaign in September. He says he was a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution, well let's see about that. Does the name Keating 5 sound familiar Senator? Gee, you were part of destroying the S&Ls in this country through deregulation and greed. Would we have the subprime mess now if the S&Ls had not been destroyed? What did you do in the Iran-Countra War daddy? We sold missiles to our sworn enemy and negotiated with terrorists, something Alzheimer Ronnie said he would never do. Gee, I think that's treason under the Constitution. Do we want somebody party to treason as president? I don't.

Go Obama!!!

Dave, Sun City, AZ (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:10 PM)

Martin,

Exactly what do you mean with strong ties with slumlord Resko?-- we know what a foto of smiling Hill, Bill and Resko at the whitehouse means. Throw in Lincoln Bedroom and you get a better picture!

Democrat LA CA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:10 PM)

Hillary can't even win her own party by a landslide despite her brand name. McCain would straight crush her, not to mention people coming out of the woodworks to stop a Clinton. We need a president for the FREE people not a CHOOSEN dictator like Hillary or McCain. Obama's wave of hope/new voters should crush the opposition just like Clinton.

Also why should he talk too much? Hillary would just copy it. He should save it catch the GOP off guard.

Rock 4 Obama, SC (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:24 PM)

Dave in NM (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:38 PM)

John and Jen I agree with you totally. I live in Washingon State where I caucused. Delegates are proportional to the vote count. Voters were allowed to vote without: showing voter registration card;
proof of address;proof of age;proof of citizenship;
nada. I could have been from Mars with earthlings
address. One late comer to the causus asked the area cordinator "where do I go" "I want to vote"
"I'm a republican". The cordinator said who are you voting for? The man answered, "Obama". The cordinator motioned with his hand to a crowd across the room and said, "Over there". He did not tell the man that he had to find his precint number by his address, he just sent him over there to the Obama crowd. I questioned not having any proof of any kind for all these people voting to select who will be the nominee on the Democratic ticket. He said, "we just have to trust them."

SO AMERICANS, THIS IS THE "NEW AMERICAN MAJORITY" (that's what Obama is now calling Americans).

WELL I'M IN THE MINORITY. THE DISENFRANCHIED VOTER. I AM NOT ONE OF THE REPUBLICAN (OR AS OBAMA CALLS HIS "OBAMACANS") VOTERS WHO CROSSED OVER IN THE CAUCUSES AND THE OPEN PRIMARIES. I AM A REGISTERED DEMOCRAT VOTER WHO LOATHS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, BUT IF HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT ON THE TICKET I WILL WRITE IN HER NAME. MY HUSBAND IS A REPUBLICAN AND SAID HE WOULD VOTE FOR HILLARY CLINTON IF SHE IS ON THE TICKET.

I STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S METHODS OF SELECTING OUR CANDIDATE IS ILLEGAL AND INJUST TO THE AMERICAN VOTER. THE POPULAR VOTE IS BEING RIGGED FOR OBAMA IN THESE CAUCUS. THE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS WILL GO HOME TO THEIR PARTY IN THE FALL. THE MEDIA AND REPUBLICAN MACHINE ARE READY WITH ATTACKS THAT WILL SEND ALL THE CROSSOVER REPUBLICANS RUNNING HOME TO THEIR PARTY.

TO THE OBAMA SUPPORTERS, ASK YOUR SELF IF OBAMA'S TWO VOTES TO GIVE BUSH MORE MONEY FOR THE WAR TO CONTINUE IS OKAY. IF BUSH DID NOT RECEIVE MORE FUNDING FOR THE IRAQ WAR, HE WOULD HAVE HAD TO BRING THE TROOPS HOME IMMEDIATELY. ALSO, ASK YOURSELF IF YOU FORGIVE COLIN POWELL FOR LYING TO YOU AND THE UNITED NATIONS ABOUT IRAQ'S WEAPONS OF MASS DISTRUCTION, AND CONDI RICE'S STATEMENT ABOUT NUKES STRIKING THE UNITED STATES? COLIN POWELL WAS BUSH'S FOOT SOLDIER AND BUSH BETRAYED HIM. BUSH BETRAYED OUR COUNTRY AND HE BETRAYED HILLARY CLINTON'S TRUST AS WELL. SO IF OBAMA DEBATES MCCAIN HE CANNOT SAY THAT HE NEVER SUPPORTED THE IRAQ WAR.

Let the chips fall where they may, the Republicans can clean up Bush's horrible mess. I am left with out trust in the Media, Government, Repubs, or even the Democratic Party at this stage of this election.
I feel as if I attended an election in a Third World country.

Laura, Sammamish WA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 5:38 PM)

I did the math myself using the results from CNN. The numbers quoted here do not add up.

Tom from Texas (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 6:00 PM)

No comment whatsoever from Hillary Clinton after Obama swept the latest primaries?? Not terribly presidential of her!

Her health care plan is largely irrelevant as her governing style - e.g. threatening to "crush" Representative (Democrat) Jim Cooper in 1993 for not going along with her health care plan - would not result in the vast majority of her policy plans being carried out.

Doesn't it make more sense to elect someone who has a solid history of actually getting things done with people who don't agree with him rather than someone who has run a bitter, nasty campaign without any apparent experience working WITH people to accomplish something rather than intimidating and bullying people?

And this "the media is destroying Hillary" nonsense? Give me a break. Were they destroying her when she was 20-30 points ahead too?

DS, Seattle, WA (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 6:17 PM)

I don't see what Hillary can do for this country. Especially in the aftermath of the Bush administration. Sure, if the preceding president had done a semi-decent job of running the country, I would say Hillary would do good with upgrading and streamlining national policy. However, the country is in a terrible state, and we're going to need a lot more than a tune-up. The fact is, Hillary can't revamp this country. The way she has run her campaign simply says she can't do it.

Obama on the other hand, who has carved out his place in national polls and defied sentiments that this race would be over by the end of Super Tuesday, is the man for the job. Face the facts. Hillary is losing her edge. Never mind experience and promises. Obama is going to rebuild this country.

Grant (Sent Wednesday, February 13, 2008 6:21 PM)

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