First Thoughts: Hillary's tough press day
Posted: Thursday, February 14, 2008 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Hillary’s tough press day: After Clinton’s losses on Tuesday, and after going 0-8 since February 5, you just knew that the tough press reports were coming. And that’s certainly true today, even on this Valentine’s Day. In addition to its front-page piece on how the pledged delegate math is difficult for Clinton, the New York Times writes that the Clinton campaign essentially had no plan after February 5. “The Texas and Ohio presidential primaries, on March 4, have become must-win contests for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, her advisers say. So why is she just opening campaign field offices across those states? The primary in Pennsylvania, on April 22, is also a crucial battleground. So why is her campaign telling its most prominent supporter there, Gov. Edward G. Rendell, that there is not enough money now for his proposed piece of direct mail to voters?” Terry McAuliffe was on TODAY and Morning Joe, arguing that Super Tuesday was a victory for the Clinton campaign. While Clinton and Obama split delegates and states on that day, doesn’t the notion that the Clintons really didn’t have a game plan after February 5 mean that Obama emerged as the true Super Tuesday winner?
*** Looking at Ohio and Pennsylvania: But these Quinnipiac polls might brighten the Clinton camp’s day. They show her leading Obama in Ohio, 55%-34%, and Pennsylvania, 52%-36%. What’s more, unlike past national polls, Clinton performs slightly better against McCain than Obama does. In Ohio, it’s McCain 44%, Clinton 43% versus McCain 44%, Obama 40%. And in Pennsylvania, it’s Clinton 46%, McCain 40% versus Obama 42%, McCain 41%. The problem for Clinton, however, is the expectations game. With those 20-point leads over Obama, she is now the overwhelming favorite in those states. But in this rapidly moving race, those contests (on March 4 and April 22, respectively) might seem like an eternity away, giving Obama plenty time to catch up. And, of course, we’re eager to see some baseline polls in Texas. As we’ve said before, Obama might have a better chance in the Lone Star State than he has in the Buckeye State…
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on new polls showing Hillary Clinton with big leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
***
Is the shake up done? Well, the tidbit of the day has to be this one from the
Wall Street Journal: "But the campaign has something of a shellshocked feel, as staffers privately chew over a blowup last week where internal frictions flared into the open. Clinton campaign operatives say it happened as top Clinton advisers gathered in Arlington, Va., campaign headquarters to preview a TV commercial. ‘Your ad doesn't work,’ strategist Mark Penn yelled at ad-maker Mandy Grunwald. ‘The execution is all wrong,’ he said, according to the operatives. ‘Oh, it's always the ad, never the message,’ Ms. Grunwald fired back, say the operatives. The clash got so heated that political director Guy Cecil left the room, saying, ‘I'm out of here.’”
*** The Huckster: When NBC's John Boxley first alerted us to Huckabee's for-pay speech in the Cayman Islands this Saturday, we had to double check that he wasn't joking. But it’s true… “I'm not independently wealthy. I wish I was,” Huckabee said, per the Washington Post. “I have to make a living. I do that through my writing and speaking." But imagine if any other presidential candidate -- no matter their income -- was giving paid speeches in the middle of this campaign (and in the Caymans to boot!). Many continue to speculate that Huck is running to be McCain’s veep, but does something like this pretty much rule that out? Isn't it becoming clearer that Huckabee's sticking around this race simply to raise his profile for speaking gigs? Is this campaign nothing but a ploy to make money?
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Ohio, where she campaigns in Youngstown and then holds a rally with Gov. Ted Strickland and John Glenn at the field house at Ohio State University in Columbus; Huckabee makes four stops in Wisconsin; McCain is in Vermont and Rhode Island (both March 4 states); and Obama doesn’t have any public events. Also, Bill Clinton stumps across Wisconsin, while Chelsea stumps in Cleveland and Akron, OH.
Countdown to Wisconsin and Hawaii: 5 days
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 12
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 264 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 341 days
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