First thoughts: The Wisconsin test case
Posted: Monday, February 18, 2008 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Wisconsin test case: The Democratic race tomorrow in Wisconsin is shaping up to be a momentum race heading into the March 4 contests. Does Obama win handily there and in Hawaii, making him 10-0 since February 5? Or does Clinton pull off the upset -- or at least make it close -- in a state where’s campaigned only since Saturday. Clearly, the Clinton campaign is using Wisconsin is being used as something of a test case of how effective negative attacks on Obama can be. There's been nothing overly nasty, just some tough pokes like the health care mailer and the debate TV ads. If Clinton gets close to Obama tomorrow, the campaign will likely conclude the negative attacks worked, and they'll escalate a bit more ahead of the March 4 primaries.
*** Process this: The Clinton camp is hitting Obama hard on a few process issues, including over debates and campaign finance issues. While the press gets this stuff rather easily, do voters? Still, it appears McCain's got a more effective hit on Obama over the idea of whether he would take public financing as the nominee. This is actually an odd backtrack by Obama since it would be hard for Obama to figure out how to spend $85 million in a mere 60 days after the Democratic convention. More importantly, as the nominee, the DNC could then raise the serious hard dollars that Obama would be backing off from. So strategically, it seems like an easy promise for Obama stick to. But Obama's campaign must be a little hesitant to follow through on this promise, because it may worry Clinton's campaign can use this decision to "disarm" as one of the reasons superdelegates should be convinced that Clinton and not Obama would be the stronger nominee for the party.
*** Just words? Whose words? The oppo drop du jour is a YouTube clip of Obama friend and supporter Deval Patrick -- in 2006 -- saying virtually the same thing Obama did on Saturday night in Milwaukee. "Don't tell me words don't matter!” Obama said. “‘I have a dream' -- just words? 'We hold these truths to be self evident that all me are created equal' -- just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' -- just words? Just speeches?" The suggestion here: that Obama borrowed/recycled/pilfered (take your pick) Patrick’s lines. The Obama campaign, however, maintains that Obama and Patrick share lines all the time, and Patrick says that he applauded Obama from using this one on Saturday night. But is this a story? Back in April 2007, the Boston Globe wrote a similar piece over these very words, after Obama said that line to the New Republic. So Obama has said this before, and the press has reported it before (although not necessarily as a gotcha piece). Of course, the difference is that Obama is now the front-runner. More importantly, what would the reaction be if Clinton were the candidate accused of borrowing lines from another politician -- even one who is a friend and who shares the same media consultant? Obama probably escapes major criticism over this unless there's another instance that doesn't involve Patrick.
*** On the up and up: Speaking of oppo, Bloomberg’s Tim Burger has a piece entitled “Obama Bought His Home With No Rezko ‘Discount,' Seller Affirms,” which basically concludes that everything was on the up and up regarding Obama’s purchase, even though he may have acted like he had something to hide. Anyway, the piece has new details and the first conversation with the original owner Obama brought from.
*** (Former) President’s Day: Today, in Houston at 10:30 am ET, McCain picks up the endorsement from former President George H.W. Bush. And it comes on the very day that the New York Times front-pages how McCain wants to utilize the current president, Bush 43. “Senator John McCain’s campaign advisers will ask the White House to deploy President Bush for major Republican fund-raising, but they do not want the president to appear too often at his side.” And that seems to make the most sense. McCain needs major fundraising help, and Bush 43 can certainly do this for him. Interestingly, McCain may have the luxury of using Bush on the campaign trail (at least with conservatives), since he's still not seen as a rank-and-file conservative by the press or party stalwarts. So this could give McCain more flexibility in using Bush than Gore had in using Clinton.
*** Veepstakes! With McCain now the presumptive GOP nominee, the veepstakes stories have arrived. Here is what appears to be the McCain short list, per recent articles: Haley Barbour (southern economic conservative with Katrina cred), Charlie Crist (the guy who DELIVERED the GOP nod to McCain, period; but can he get married before Labor Day?), Mike Huckabee (see below), Kay Bailey Hutchison (can McCain pick a pro-choice Republican?), Tim Pawlenty (the early front-runner?), Condi Rice (too much Iraq on one ticket?), and Mark Sanford (the other early front-runner?). Question, though: Does Huckabee’s Cayman Islands speech eliminate him from the conversation?
*** On the trail: Clinton spends her entire day in Wisconsin, stumping in De Pere, Wausau, and Madison; Huckabee is also in the Badger State, hitting Hudson, Eau Claire, and Appleton; McCain campaigns in Wisconsin after picking up his endorsement from Bush 41 in Texas; and Obama holds a rally in Youngstown, OH and then heads back to Wisconsin for an evening rally in Beloit.
Countdown to Wisconsin and Hawaii: 1 day
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 8
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 15 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 260 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 337 days
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