ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: All eyes on Wisconsin

Posted: Tuesday, February 19, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** All eyes on Wisconsin: Does Obama hold on to his momentum? Did the Clinton campaign’s attacks on Obama (over skipping debates, waffling on matching funds for the general election, and those Deval Patrick lines) end up working? We could very well find out the answers to those questions in today’s Wisconsin primary. If either Clinton wins or Obama wins significantly, the contest could wind up being a real turning point. For instance, a key part of Clinton’s coalition so far has been with older and blue-collar Democrats. If she wins, that means she again clobbered him in those groups. But if Obama wins a significant victory, he does it by chipping into these older and blue-collar Dems. And if he does that, watch out Ohio… Up for grabs in Wisconsin’s open primary are 74 pledged delegates. On the GOP side, 37 winner-take-all delegates are at stake (broken down by congressional district and statewide vote). Polls close at 9:00 pm ET.

*** The other contests: Elsewhere today, 20 delegates in the Democratic race are up for grabs in Hawaii -- where Obama grew up, where Chelsea Clinton has campaigned, and where we wish were right now. Hawaii’s presidential preference poll begins at midnight ET and ends at 12:30 am ET. And today’s primary in Washington State allocates the remaining half of the state’s GOP pledged delegates (19); the other half were won at its February 9 caucuses. The Washington State primary is a beauty contest on the Democratic side; the true Dem contest there was on February 9. Polls there open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET, although most voting is done by mail.

VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama talks in an exclusive interview with TODAY's Matt Lauer about his campaign style and whether he can win in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

*** Words-Gate: Well, it looks like controversy over the lines that Obama borrowed from Deval Patrick is over. But it produced a day and a half’s worth of news clips, TV spots, and blog posts. This is what the Clinton campaign hopes this story begins to do: chip away at Obama's authenticity. A typical politician steals lines from other pols; that's the message the Clinton camp hopes this episode sends to voters in Ohio and Texas. It may be too late for Wisconsin voters. But after reading the RNC’s gleeful emails over the controversy, the episode brings up another point: The longer the Dem race goes on -- and the more oppo hits and attack conference calls the Clinton and Obama campaigns trade -- does the winner come out looking weaker and more vulnerable heading into the general election, especially with John McCain now sitting on the sidelines? 

*** The NAFTA battle: As we look ahead to the March 4 contest in Ohio, NAFTA becomes a bigger and bigger issue. Here is what Obama said yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan: "By the way, one thing I do have to say about Senator Clinton -- she says, well, speeches don’t put food on the table. Well, you know what? NAFTA didn’t put food on the table in Youngstown either." Just asking: If Ohio was in a vacuum and there was an entire month to campaign in just that one state, would the pro-NAFTA candidate -- or more accurately, the candidate whose spouse passed NAFTA -- even have a chance?

*** Delegate update: The official NBC News hard count for the Democrats is Obama 1,116, Clinton 985. There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC. We estimate those a 24-20 split for Obama. The superdelegate total is Clinton 257, Obama 184 for a grand total of Obama 1,324, Clinton 1,262.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for a John Edwards endorsement and Democratic superdelegates.

*** On the trail: Clinton holds a rally tonight in Youngstown, OH; Huckabee holds a media avail at 10:00 pm ET in Little Rock, AR; McCain campaigns this morning in Wisconsin and then head to Columbus, OH for his Election Night party; and Obama, in Texas, stumps in San Antonio and holds an evening rally in Houston.

Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 7
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 259 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 336 days

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Comments

It's time Wisconsin voters, put on your hats and coats and go vote for Hillary. Thank You !
GOT HOPE.... GOT PLAGERISM.
Today's Clinton campaign consistency report:

1) We want all the votes to count.  Unless of course they're in either NY or CA.  If 80 precincts in NY City (including Harlem) didn't register a single vote for Obama, then nobody must have voted for him (pass the sniff test J. Merle from Westchester?).
2) Words don't matter.  Unless of course we decide the ONLY thing we have on Obama is that he and his good friend have used similar language in campaign speeches.  In that case, words matter greatly because we can twist them to fool the portion of the electorate that's not on to us yet.

Obama's not perfect.  Far from it.  But how do the rusty games that Senator Clinton endorses day after day add up to inspiring leadership?  Wisconsin, please join the rest of America in saying no to the past and to the same political games we've endured the past 8 years.
Obama is a fraud. Charles Krauthhammer had a good article in my local newspaper that talked about how cult-like Obama candidacy has become and how dangerous this is. This is the first time in my life I actually agreed with Mr Krauthhammer. He is generally a extreme rightwing nut. I agree with him totally on this.
If there is any justice, Obama will sweep the rest of the primaries & caucuses.  I clearly feel Clinton is bringing down the DEM party.  Why do we do this my fellow Democrats?  The WH and a bigger majority in Congress are ours for the taking and she is ruining it.  There is no way she will win in NOV.  Why can’t our party members see this?

Not only is she desperate and is going negative, she is even looking mean and bitchy when she speaks.  I hope she doesn’t start crying again.  I bet the media is loving this, and hope for a protracted fight all the way to the convention.  I bet they hope she gets the nomination and they get a great story whether she wins or loses.  If she loses, then they get to report the downfall of the Clinton dynasty.  If by a miracle she wins, they get to be part of the attack machine to thwart her political agenda and the DEM party slide.

There is something more going on with her candidacy then just the ‘first woman’ issue.  I do not see how she has hoodwinked so many current political leaders and party faithful.  I know politics makes strange bedfellows, but why are people failing to see her tremendous shortcomings?  She criticizes Obama on substance when she is as vague as anyone.  She criticizes Obama as being inexperienced when she has held elected office fewer years then he.  She wiggles in the political wind while he stays consistent.  He is inspirational, she is divisive and polarizing.  

Let’s put her away and start building up to a great victory in November for the whole party.  OBAMA 08!!!
Early results just in from Wisconsin. Obama,lies, deciet and plagerism well ahead.
If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, we are doomed to a 3rd Bush term by way of McCain, and the end of all civilization as we know it.
Obama is playing the race card and we all know it.

It amazes me that his supporters and bloggers have the audacity of calling my family members in Wisconsin and telling them the Clinton's stole the black votes in Harlem and no vote was cast for Obama in Harlem and President Clinton has just opened up an office in Harlem to get the black vote.

Come on people. He is a phony and so are his supporters to have to use these kind of lies. There is no way he will take office in November because republicans are not going to be lady like and will examine his past and dealing and the truth will be told and we will see he is no messiah.

He has no experience, no substance and uses cheap tricks and talk. Kerry was suppose to win huge according to all polls. We saw what the result was. Action speak louder than words!

Come on MSNBC you have got to print this. Let's not get fooled once again.
Speak Truthfully,

The Clinton's balanced the country's budget in their 8 years in the White House and left us with a surplus Bush has blown. John McCain also had to take a loan out to fund his campaign just a few short weeks ago, so what Clinton did was not off. Even Romney was using his own money. YES, Hillary's campaign manager spends far more than she should have betting Super Tuesday would be the end, she was wrong and has been fired. Hillary is now raising $1 million a day and the money troubles are fading. What Hillary did not count on is the media giving a free pass to Obama to say whatever he wanted without any questions and the public going for a great public speaker who has no experience for President when she is clearly the better choice at this time of crisis. My hope is she takes Wisconsin (or comes close) and then takes Texas, Ohio and PA as it seems she will to finally put thing in order. Obama will be an excellent VICE PRESIDENT and with Hillary's experience and his passionate speeches they will wipe our McCain easily.
Ryan Healey, Central, CT (Sent Monday, February 18, 2008 12:53 PM)

I just thought that this was a really good post and MSNBC gives it a chance.
Hillary is full of deciet, lies and plagerism.  She recently said "if we can track people who come into a Blockbuster video store then we should be able to track people who come into the country" (this is a paraphrase).  Funny thing, it is the exact same thing John Edwards said in a debate last year.  Clinton is a hypocrit and her supporters are brainwashed lemmings.  BTW, ARG poll on Feb 15-16 showed Clinton 49% and Obama 43%.  Another ARG poll on Feb 17-18 showed Obama 52% and Clinton 42%.  In two days, Obama gained 9 points and Clinton lost 7 points.
Looks like all clinton monitors on to day....Yes we can and the polls indicate Obama and if you cant spell it here it is again Obama...not the old politcis but new.......Without tears.....
WHY on earth did "words-gate" get a day and a half of coverage??? How very pathetic.

Is this ALL Hillary has at this point? She claims that she is "vetted" but obviously the Clintons haven't found any real dirt on Obama - Clearly they are looking - so I think that one is a wash.  

Who Cares if Barack used the same words as Patrick? Politicians do it all the time. This whole conversation is beyond absurd.

First, Barack is not all about rhetoric. Look at his website.

Second, I find it interesting that the candidate that likes to claim that she is all about substance and issues brings up this Substance-less, Non-issue right before two important primaries. If she wants to be about the issues, she needs to stick to the issues.

This is ridiculous to the point of being embarrassing....for Hilary. I don't think she can win on her merits, and apparently, neither does she if she insists on these tactics. How very Sad and Pathetic...
I hope people are beginning to awaken from their cult slumber and see that this Obama guy is a con artist. Some of us seem to be destined to follow this guy off a cliff. We know very little about him, his past, his ideas. Just spouting change and yes we can means absolutely nothing with no backing it up.
Like comparing himself to MLK and JFK before, Barack Obama inexperience is responsible for mistakes such saying it is not a BIG DEAL.

Barack Obama behavior is similar to another inexperience candidate Dan Quayle who also tried to compare himself to John F. Kennedy in the 1988 debate facing Senator Lloyd Bentsen. Senator Bentsen responded: “........... Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy"

Barack worsened the perception pointing the fingers to others instead of apologizing and move on, knowing that people are willing to forgive for his mistake.

Michelle Obama's "For the first time in my adult lifetime I am really proud of my country", and not George Bush (41) will "fire up and ready to go" those reluctant conservatives to vote for war hero John McCain facing Barack Obama.
mrs. clinton has a lot of gall talking about the evils of nafta when her husband signed it into law with her cheering him on, knowing full well it would destroy the working man, I certainly hope people see hillary for what she is, an elitist corporate puppet that cares nothing about the less fortunate, and an obvious liar with no morals. She has a lot of experience alright, experience taking from the poor and giving to the rich, like the wall street journal says,
‘big business loves hillary’
mrs. clinton has a lot of gall talking about the evils of nafta when her husband signed it into law with her cheering him on, knowing full well it would destroy the working man, I certainly hope people see hillary for what she is, an elitist corporate puppet that cares nothing about the less fortunate, and an obvious liar with no morals. She has a lot of experience alright, experience taking from the poor and giving to the rich, like the wall street journal says,
‘big business loves hillary’
Just read today Clinton staffers are confirming the campaign has plans to go after Obama's pledged delegates, if it comes to that.

Seems these 'pledged' delegates actually aren't bound, and there's nothing stopping an opposing candidate from promising jobs, etc., to get them to switch their vote.

As we all know, pledged delegates were won via voting. Hmmm, seems the Clintons don't mind disenfranchising voters that don't vote they way they prefer.
Why on earth did "word-gate" get a day and a half of coverage ??? How very patethic. Now repeat this line 1,000 times.
Obama is missing a key campaign strategist.  He needs to hire and put out on the front lines Hillary's hubby's ex-girlfriend Monica.  Let the country know that the Clintons are liars.  Remind them that little Bill with the support of his little woman lied to a grad jury.  They couldn't be trusted then and they can't be trusted now.
Experience matters.  Readiness matters.  That is why Hillary is the better candidate.  I shutter to think of what a BHO presidency would be like.  We do not have time to allow him an internship.  

The republicans have balanced the budget, it is not Clinton, he as usal took credit for it.
Michelle Obama's gaffe that she wasn't proud of the U.S. until now reveals that this race is all about the Obamas. Michelle Obama's stupid unpatriotic statement recalls Obama's refusal last Fall to wear "that pin" (his words), which is the American flag, on his lapel.

The Obamas will only be proud Americans if it's all about Obama.
Wisconsin ought to be a Clinton state, based on voting trends among demographics we've seen. The fact that Obama has polled a few points up is interesting, but we've also seen we can't always believe polls.

If Obama can even stay close in a state with these demographics, I'd have to think that's very good for his campaign.
Obama reminds me of a televangelist. Lying, phoney and lots hidden in his closet..ready to fall out. We will find it and destroy him. Go McCain!!
Obama cannot chip away at Hillary's authenticity. She doesn't have any.
Wow, this race is really getting ugly. People, is this how we want to win? The first several comments on this page are mind-boggling to me. I know it's tempting to let passion for your candidate turn into hatred for the other, especially if your candidate has been losing lately, but I would strongly suggest that the best way to win this primary race, to win the general election in November, and generally to be able to look at yourself in the mirror every morning is to take the HIGH ROAD. Keep it focused on issues and process. Keep the insults and low-blows out of it. The candidates have been doing a FAIRLY decent job of that. Why can't we on this board? Here's a pretty good rule: if you're too embarrassed by what you've posted on this site to actually give your name, then you shouldn't have posted it.
Oh my gosh. I just learned that Ronald Reagan actually was saying words that Peggy Noonan wrote. I'm so disappointed, because Hillary Clinton cited Reagan as one of her favorite presidents on her campaign website.

I just can't support someone who favors a word thief.
Now that we know political handlers have carefully constructed Obama and his words are meaningless (merely plagerized from other politicians) will the public continue to blindly follow this "created man"? Maybe for now, but this fact will continue to slip thru the cracks. Someone trips on the telapromter cord and all that charisma evaporates.
If "words-gate" is the absolute best dirt the Clintons can throw at Obama, then he is without a doubt the superior choice if we're afraid of the Republican mudslinging in November.

Clinton's got her truckload of scandals, with more developing by the day (tax returns? library donors?  earmarks? White House files ever gonna get released proving that experience?)

Obama has word-gate, and a Rezko "scandal" amounting to a paltry $80 grand, with absolutely zero ties to any legislation ever passed or promoted by Obama...

2 "gates" versus 200 "gates"...

Who do we wanna give to the Republicans to tear apart again??
In a speech in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on February 16, 2008, Senator Obama said that “change only comes from below” and that “change does not come from above.” If so, what he is running for the highest office in the country for? Senator Obama is a veteran politician who tells his supporters what they want to hear: the same charge he levels at his opponents.
Hillary's supporters are a sad cynical lot- wanting to recycle the same old group-come on move on-you can't go back to the 90's. We are in 2008!
Hillary has taken words from Obama like "Yes We Can".  Obama should have said that he was going to use a couple of lines from a friend, before he said what is said.  It is not a big deal.  Hillary will do anything to win.  She is behind, and she is going manipulate the media, fans, and the "Uneducated" population about Obama.  Remember she is in a situation that she has to win.  Obama is going to be the democratic nominee.  Hillary is a lair, accepts monies from lobbist, and has some many negatives.  Obama is going to eat her alive at the next debate, if she tries to pull him down.  If the shoes were on the other feet Hillary would not even want to go to the conventation.  Obama is the only candidate that will unite the American people.  Don't beleive everything Hillary say.  It is very bad and not tactful, she doesn't represents the "American People".  She represents "Self".  You Hillary supporter will soon find out that deceiting the American people will not work.  Obama has attracted, new voters, independents, and republician. He has what it takes.  Anytime a candidate critizes her opponent to get some attention doesn't work for educated people. Hillary has not covered all the basis.

Obama 2008!
Be Objective people, have your opinion, but be Objective when speaking.

Go Obama !!!
So this is all they got on Obama, Knowing the Clintons they have gone all the way to dig up any dirt on him but couldn't find none so this is all they got?, knowing what I know about the Clintons in first 8 years of their political life it is hard to imaging that they wouldn't find anything devastating on another politician.

One Clinton surrogate this morning on Foxnews was asked about Mccain and he went into this rant about how Mccain is better than Obama on integrity and a host of other issues, so clearly he is saying if Come November he will vote Mccain if Obama is the nominee, and I have decided based on that too that come November I will vote MCcain if Clinton is the nominee, at least I know where Mccain stand on everything, he also answers question and doesn't change his mind often based on poll results which the Clintons are known for. You can not say the Clintons don't lie, I mean he was debarred and impeached what else could disqualify a couple running together for president?
If we are going to talk about "plagiarism," the least we can do is spell it correctly. Lighten up. And go vote for Barack. By any measure, Hillary is the real phony in this race. Obama '08!
It just seems like people will fall into either the Obama camp or the Clinton camp without a clue that they're practically identical on all the major issues.

Get out of Iraq? yes, and Hillary has a more nuanced, realistic plan -- but both have said they would pay attention to the military brass on the ground. Universal healthcare? yes, and furthermore both of them get a "B" for their plans from the National Physicians Alliance (just google it). Reduce dependence on foreign oil by pushing domestic "green" economy, which will create more jobs? yes again, for both.

Where in any of this suggests that voting for Obama is akin to "following a guy off a cliff?" And where in any of this is Clinton lying, scheming or out of touch?

With these two so close on the issues, the real difference lies in the Democratic platform vs. the Republican, which will only matter after all this is settled. Ask yourself realistically who has a better chance vs. John McCain. Obama, who can draw across party lines and has proven he can draw thousands, if not millions of new, YOUNG voters who energize the electorate? Or Clinton, who pretty much HAS to win by relying on superdelegates and engaging in backroom arm-twisting and wheeling and dealing?

You think she's going to look good to all the Obama voters after that? She'll be a big, fat, ugly target for a Republican party whose voters will turn out in greater force just to make sure she doesn't get close to the White House. And meanwhile she'll have stabbed her own Democratic party's growing idealism right through the heart, winning over voters by relying on people's fears and uncertainties.

Predictions, NUMBERS, on Wisconsin: http://www.nationalscold.com
Tim Matthews-

How can you report "early results just in" showing Obama ahead at 9:45 a.m.?? You know, I just gotta call from a few of my exit pollster friends showing that Hillary is mounting an early lead.

I can play that game, too---This Just In---Hillary is mounting an early, significant lead across Wisconsin. It looks to be in the 57-to-43 range. If Obama can't crack 43% in Wisconsin, then where's the momentum?
Would you guys please clarify the delegate count please? You state above: "The official NBC News hard count for the Democrats is Obama 1,116, Clinton 985... for a grand total of Obama 1,324, Clinton 1,262".

Yet all the lead MSNBC news articles say 1,281 for Obama and 1,218 for Clinton. Which is it?  I mean it seems pretty significant to me whether Obama maintains a 100+ lead versus a <100 lead. Shouldn't the NBC political director and the NBC news division be working from the same set of number?
Obama is clearly going to win Wisconsin and make Hillary sweat in Texas and Ohio.  It's obvious that the only move Hillary has left is to nit-pick every word Obama uses.  That's the only strategy she has left, and it's not a winning strategy.  The voters will see through this.  And regarding Michelle Obama's comments about this being the first time she's been proud of her country, look this is America, she can say what she pleases.  I myself, for the first time in years, am proud of my country.  Both Barack and Michelle impress the hell out of me and I think this is what our country needs.  YES WE CAN!!!!!!
Why is Hillary getting her behind kicked?  Is Obama that good or is Hillary that bad or the electorate that dumb to be duped by Obama?  My opinion is that there are quite a few Hillary haters out there and people want a change and Hillary is not it.  Sorry Hillary fans, Hillary is going down.
Senator Obama runs on the “Hope and Change” message because he is short on experience. He has a 20-year record of public service compared to Senator Clinton’s record of 32 years. Senator Clinton also served as an experienced assistant to President Clinton in the Whitehouse for eight years. It can be said that Senator Clinton is running on the “Hope and Change with Experience” message. We all have “Hope” for our future and want “Change” for the better for the current political and economy system. Senator Obama is only a junior senator aspiring to the highest office in the country. Senator Obama is part of the system just like other candidates. Senator Obama has also been supported by lobbyists and has had a political machine just like his opponents. He is trying to portray himself as a uniter but he attacked Senator Clinton first in a debate by bringing up the charge that she was working on the Board of Wal-Mart while he was doing public service. After wooing his supporters with the “Hope and Change” message, Senator Obama is now interjecting a reality check by saying that he knows how hard it is to change the system as if to prepare for failure to change it. Senator Obama is a veteran politician who tells his supporters what they want to hear: the same charge he levels at his opponents. In a speech in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on February 16, 2008, Senator Obama said that “change only comes from below” and that “change does not come from above.” If so, what he is running for the highest office in the country for?
Considering The Clinton's were mentioned yesterday on their little 13 point economic plan, did she fail to mention that a lot of her economic plans were originally found in John Edward's campaign?  They had just better keep silent about Obama and his borrowing, Hillary does quite a bit of "borrowing" herself.

The Clinton's talking about NAFTA being evil when it was the hubby that signed the thing away.  If Hillary would be woman enough, she should come out and blast her husband for signing the deal.  But as we all know, you never bite the hand that feeds you....

By the way Hillary.....
You stated that you gave Norman Hsu's money to charity......
Can you please state the Charity it went to?
Or were you lying like everything else you have said in your campaign so far?.....
Obama is clearly going to win Wisconsin and make Hillary sweat in Texas and Ohio.  It's obvious that the only move Hillary has left is to nit-pick every word Obama uses.  That's the only strategy she has left, and it's not a winning strategy.  The voters will see through this.  And regarding Michelle Obama's comments about this being the first time she's been proud of her country, look this is America, she can say what she pleases.  I myself, for the first time in years, am proud of my country.  Both Barack and Michelle impress the hell out of me and I think this is what our country needs.  YES WE CAN!!!!!!
Obama is clearly going to win Wisconsin and make Hillary sweat in Texas and Ohio.  It's obvious that the only move Hillary has left is to nit-pick every word Obama uses.  That's the only strategy she has left, and it's not a winning strategy.  The voters will see through this.  And regarding Michelle Obama's comments about this being the first time she's been proud of her country, look this is America, she can say what she pleases.  I myself, for the first time in years, am proud of my country.  Both Barack and Michelle impress the hell out of me and I think this is what our country needs.  YES WE CAN!!!!!!
What is the early reports from WI...anyone there know?
Early Word from Green Bay, WI. Clintonistas have their work cut out. No one buys the plagiarism argument here. I am a republican and I just voted for Barack Obama after I heard the crap from Clintonsita Baldy Wolfson. If Democracts in WI have any guts to see over this issue, I suggest go over all the scandals that Clintons have given us.. there is a ray of hope and don't squeeze that out now..
Obama supporters, please don't waste time going back and forth on this issue of "words", it is really crazy and they are just trying to make something out of nothing, DEVAL AND OBAMA are friends, HE TOLD HIM TO USE IT, the Clinton supporters are simply grasping at straws, let's instead use our time getting people to Barack the Vote!!
Obama supporters, please don't waste time going back and forth on this issue of "words", it is really crazy and they are just trying to make something out of nothing, DEVAL AND OBAMA are friends, HE TOLD HIM TO USE IT, the Clinton supporters are simply grasping at straws, let's instead use our time getting people to Barack the Vote!!
I didn't realize that Billary was co-President, while Wild Bill served as figure head. Maybe, in fact,she was and that's why she didn't know about Monica. She was too busy to ask Wild Bill about his use of cigars.

If we want to talk about overstating and falsehoods, let's talk about the meaning of the word - experience as it relates to her 35 year "legend." These guys wouldn't know the truth if it hit them in the face.
wow how desperate can the clinton supporters and campian get . cant blame it on the right wing cospiracy , so blame the media . and for you people that say you have to go to fox news because every body is treating clinton so unfair , well if that does not give you the picture , i guess keep living in your fairytale world . obama 08 yes we can !


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