First thoughts: All eyes on Wisconsin
Posted: Tuesday, February 19, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** All eyes on Wisconsin: Does Obama hold on to his momentum? Did the Clinton campaign’s attacks on Obama (over skipping debates, waffling on matching funds for the general election, and those Deval Patrick lines) end up working? We could very well find out the answers to those questions in today’s Wisconsin primary. If either Clinton wins or Obama wins significantly, the contest could wind up being a real turning point. For instance, a key part of Clinton’s coalition so far has been with older and blue-collar Democrats. If she wins, that means she again clobbered him in those groups. But if Obama wins a significant victory, he does it by chipping into these older and blue-collar Dems. And if he does that, watch out Ohio… Up for grabs in Wisconsin’s open primary are 74 pledged delegates. On the GOP side, 37 winner-take-all delegates are at stake (broken down by congressional district and statewide vote). Polls close at 9:00 pm ET.
*** The other contests: Elsewhere today, 20 delegates in the Democratic race are up for grabs in Hawaii -- where Obama grew up, where Chelsea Clinton has campaigned, and where we wish were right now. Hawaii’s presidential preference poll begins at midnight ET and ends at 12:30 am ET. And today’s primary in Washington State allocates the remaining half of the state’s GOP pledged delegates (19); the other half were won at its February 9 caucuses. The Washington State primary is a beauty contest on the Democratic side; the true Dem contest there was on February 9. Polls there open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET, although most voting is done by mail.
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama talks in an exclusive interview with TODAY's Matt Lauer about his campaign style and whether he can win in Hawaii and Wisconsin.
***
Words-Gate: Well, it looks like controversy over the lines that Obama borrowed from Deval Patrick is over. But it produced a day and a half’s worth of news clips, TV spots, and blog posts. This is what the Clinton campaign hopes this story begins to do: chip away at Obama's authenticity. A typical politician steals lines from other pols; that's the message the Clinton camp hopes this episode sends to voters in Ohio and Texas. It may be too late for Wisconsin voters. But after reading the RNC’s gleeful emails over the controversy, the episode brings up another point: The longer the Dem race goes on -- and the more oppo hits and attack conference calls the Clinton and Obama campaigns trade -- does the winner come out looking weaker and more vulnerable heading into the general election, especially with John McCain now sitting on the sidelines?
*** The NAFTA battle: As we look ahead to the March 4 contest in Ohio, NAFTA becomes a bigger and bigger issue. Here is what Obama said yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan: "By the way, one thing I do have to say about Senator Clinton -- she says, well, speeches don’t put food on the table. Well, you know what? NAFTA didn’t put food on the table in Youngstown either." Just asking: If Ohio was in a vacuum and there was an entire month to campaign in just that one state, would the pro-NAFTA candidate -- or more accurately, the candidate whose spouse passed NAFTA -- even have a chance?
*** Delegate update: The official NBC News hard count for the Democrats is Obama 1,116, Clinton 985. There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC. We estimate those a 24-20 split for Obama. The superdelegate total is Clinton 257, Obama 184 for a grand total of Obama 1,324, Clinton 1,262.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for a John Edwards endorsement and Democratic superdelegates.
***
On the trail: Clinton holds a rally tonight in Youngstown, OH; Huckabee holds a media avail at 10:00 pm ET in Little Rock, AR; McCain campaigns this morning in Wisconsin and then head to Columbus, OH for his Election Night party; and Obama, in Texas, stumps in San Antonio and holds an evening rally in Houston.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 7
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 259 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 336 days
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