First thoughts: Obama goes 10-0

Posted: Wednesday, February 20, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama goes 10-0: The best way to end two days of tough press coverage? You go out and win a contested state -- and a general election battleground, to boot -- by 17 points. That’s exactly what Obama did in Wisconsin yesterday, and when you add his victory late last night in Hawaii, he’s now an eye-popping 10-0 since February 5. What’s more, every single win after Super Tuesday has been in the double digits, the narrowest margin being last night’s 17-point win. Yes, Obama outspent Clinton in Wisconsin. Yes, he campaigned in the state longer than she did. And, yes, Madison is full of potential Obama base supporters: college students and highly educated adults. But demographically, Wisconsin was a perfect place for Clinton to stop Obama’s momentum. And she tried with negative TV ads (hitting Obama on health care, Social Security, and not participating in debates), mailings (slamming him on health care and his “present” votes), and a well-timed oppo hit (on Obama lifting lines from Deval Patrick’s speeches). And still, per the exit polls, Obama won among those who decided on Election Day (though it was closer), as well as in the last three days. There's an argument that some in the Clinton campaign can make that the negative stuff was just starting to work. Then again, it was a 17-point win...

VIDEO: "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert talks with TODAY’s Meredith Vieira about the results of the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries.

*** Is it panic time yet? Losing as badly as she did in Wisconsin really puts Clinton’s campaign in as precarious of a position as it has ever been. The likelihood she can beat Obama as badly as she needs to in any remaining state -- let alone Ohio and Texas -- is very remote at this point. She no longer controls her own destiny, but now has to hope for an unforced error by Obama. And a big one. The good news for Clinton, the next six days provide two opportunities for unforced errors: debates. But how negative can Clinton go at this point? According to NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Newsweek's Howard Fineman, there's a divide inside the campaign about how negative to go. On one side is Mark Penn, who is ready to go all out (and who comes from the Bill Clinton school that there is no tomorrow, fight today); on the other is Mandy Grunwald and Howard Wolfson, who are worried about Clinton's legacy. After all, there has to be a point where Clinton says to herself, "there might be a next time." Isn't it possible Obama blows this as the nominee? And if so, who's going to be asked to pick up the pieces in 2009?

*** It’s the campaign, stupid…: Time and again, we hear anecdotes of how the Obama campaign has more staff here or more money there. This, of course, was a luxury Obama had versus Clinton. The Obama campaign knew they weren't going to win quickly, and so they prepared for the long campaign -- the delegate fight. The Clinton campaign has been surprisingly unprepared for the long haul. Remember when Clinton herself said the contest would be over February 5? This is the only way to explain the consistent caucus beat-down they take and the lack of preparation for Wisconsin. It's the Obama campaign that's doing the little things tactically. At some point, one has to wonder if Obama will start using the organizational success he's had in this campaign as a talking point about his own preparation to run the White House. After all, this is the largest organization either Clinton or Obama has run.

*** A troubling sign for Ohio? Clinton won just a few demographics in Wisconsin last night, including among white women (52%-47%) and those over 60 (54%-45%). But one group she lost, per NBC’s AnaMaria Arumi, was among whites making less than $50,000 (50%-48%). What’s significant for Obama is that -- outside of Utah and his home state of Illinois -- last night’s contest was his best score with that subgroup. Among all of those making under $50,000, Obama beat Clinton, 54%-44%; among those making more than $50,000, he won, 60%-39%. Clinton is targeting blue-collar workers, but has the wormed turned here, too?

VIDEO: After losing the Wisconsin primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., tells voters that the new president should rely on ‘hard work to get America back to work’. 'The question isn't whether we can,' says Clinton, 'but whether we will.'

*** The Delegate math: After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276. Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won't be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%. On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK...

VIDEO: Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., after winning the Wisconsin primary, encourages voters to ‘fight for every delegate needed to win the nomination’ and then to fight for the presidency.

*** The way to win? The Clinton campaign, meanwhile, has unveiled its own Delegate Hub, a Web site listing “facts and myths” about the Democratic race for delegates. What’s most interesting here is that the campaign moves the 2025 magic number to include Florida and Michigan (thus 2208). And as Harold Ickes tried on Saturday, they want to erase the pledged vs. super distinction. This is the clearest signal yet that the Clinton campaign knows they can’t win as things stand now and need to win this on the perception front.

*** Compare and contrast: Lost in the attention of last night’s Democratic contest in Wisconsin was McCain’s own win in the Badger State, as well as in Washington. However, McCain should be thankful there won’t be many more back-to-back Election Night speeches, in which TV viewers can compare the speeches and the audiences. In fact, fast forward to the conventions and ask yourself: If you were McCain, would you want to have your convention first or second. (The GOP convention goes second.) But jeez, that was a long speech by Obama -- maybe too long. Obviously, last night was about putting the Deval Patrick issue to rest, so he spoke with no teleprompter and notes. We get it, but he rambled just a tad.

*** Buckeye Bill? Bill Clinton campaigns today and tomorrow in Texas. But just asking: Will we see him stump for his wife in Ohio? Because of NAFTA? According to the exit polls in Wisconsin, a whopping 72% said that trade with other countries takes more jobs from the state -- rather than creates them -- and Obama won those folks by a 57%-41% margin.

*** Michelle making news: Speaking of spouses, anyone else getting flashbacks to Hillary Clinton '92 when hearing Michelle Obama make news and, well, speak her mind? We can hear the divisive whispers about her already and some of the critiques come across like the ones Republicans leveled at Hillary '92. Barack may be coated in the same Teflon Reagan and Bill Clinton soaked in during their campaigns, but like Nancy and Hillary, Michelle Obama may not be as lucky.

VIDEO: Speaking to women voters in Rhode Island, Michelle Obama explains her "proud of my country" remarks.

*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton raises money in New York City before heading once again to South Texas, where she visits Hidalgo (with Rep. Ruben Hinojosa) and Brownsville (with Rep. Solomon Ortiz); Huckabee is also in Texas, where he holds a rally in Plano; McCain spends his day in Ohio before taking off to Obama’s home state of Illinois for a media avail; and Obama holds a rally in Dallas, TX. Also today, Michelle Obama campaigns in Rhode Island and Ted Kennedy stumps in South Texas.

Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 6
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 258 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 335 days

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Comments

The way the media has all but had a coronation for Obama is nauseating. Giving him 48 minutes of airtime, while not giving the same opportunity to the other candidates is unbelieveable.

I support Hillary, but if Obama wins the nomination, I will not vote for him. I'll either sit out the election or cast a vote for McCain. Obama's a windbag who can't even come up with his own speeches.

Al C., Raleigh NC (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:11 AM)

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 9:21 AM)

Pat I hope you don't let your hurt feelings get in the way of doing what is right. You are bitter because Hillary is losing, but you must admit all the odds were stacked against Obama, and he is winning fairly. You need to do what will make your concious clear at the end of the day, if you want to vote for McCain then so be it but at the end of the day your decision would affect you and I think you know, regardless of how angry you are at the moment, that a Democrat in the office will be better than the alternative, so use that anger to galvanize support for our Democratic nominee (no matter who that is).

Dante (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:11 AM)

In response to the coverage given to Obama's speech last night as opposed to the other candidates, Obama's speech was the only motivating, inspirational and convincing speech that that could have been heard in its entirety without putting the American public to sleep.

Shawne, Hartford, Ct. (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:12 AM)

Pat Huntington,

I find your repeated reference to Obama supporters as bot or morons utterly offensive. I am afraid you may be a tad out of touch. Every national poll puts Obama ahead of John Mcain in the general election. It is very clear that Senator Clinton is doing more damage to the democratic party. My evidence is that Mcain is now using her arguments against Obama.

Senator Clinton can gracefully exit this race and be president in 2016, until then, she should do all she can to support Obama.

Brian, Sarasota, Florida (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

1. While Obama is proud of his one wife, who is realy proud of America not settling for status quo politics, McCain can't be proud of his past three. (News Flash: Michelle isn' the Presidential Candidate, he'll look stupid attacking Obama's wife)

2. When this Iraq quagmire hits 10 years and 7 trillion dollars, McCain will be in diapers.

3. While Obama wants to gather back our former allies to form a more stable Iraq, McCain wants to keep financing the war and tax cuts through Communist China, the same communism he fought against in ANOTHER FAILED WAR. 'NUFF SAID

Superdelegate Boy '08 (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

I must agree with Pat Huntington, NY, because McCain is surely going to win Obama!
Obama may be media favored or may win voters by giving speeches but can he really do what he says? Does anyone even think about that? WHy is everyone so surprised about his speeches? WHo doesnt know how to give a good speech and who cares? All he has been doing is talking and talking and i bet you he will not be able to keep his promises!
McCain and Clinton are the best who know what to do and when to do it. They are the RIGHT people for this country!!!!

CALIFORNIA (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

Pat in Huntington NY:

Whatever dude!!!

Patrick, Indianapolis (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

Math-master Chuck, what percentage of pledged delegates does Clinton need to win if Obama comes within 5% of her in Texas and/or Ohio? I think that will really highlight how important those two states are and, given the current polls in Texas, just how close Hillary is to being knocked out.

Stu in Pittsburgh (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

Who is voting for Hillary going to switch to Obama? Not me. I will NEVER vote for him. He is a fraud. So that means I guess that McCain wins.

Because Obama has NO substance. And what his wife said yesterday is deplorable. Shameless. That woman should be cornered. She needs to stop already. She was the initial reason I wouldn't vote for Obama and now he is the main reason.

But if he thinks he has the Clinton votes, he is in for a rude awakening. Thanks for giving us another 4 years of Bush, Obama. Way to go! you idiot.

Antiyou (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 9:53 AM)

First of all, because YOU won't vote for Obama in the general, McCain automatically wins? I think you are giving yourself WAY too much credit.

Second, if you are so petty as to not vote for the Democratic candidate in November simply because he beat your candidate and you don't like him, it is YOU, and not Obama that would be giving the election to McCain. So you would have no one to blame but yourself.

But, since that won't happen, we have only to entertain you until 1/20/09, and only let you believe that the small percentage of you who think you will prevent Obama from becoming President are as influential as you are in your own head.

CitizenJ (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

Indepdendents and Republicans are setting the Democratic party up for a big loss in November.
The G.O.P. spinmasters will prop McCain up as a patriot and a decorated war hero, and they will portray Obama as a 'less-than-faithful-to-the-U.S.A.' weakling who would leave us open for another attack on American soil. His extreme liberal voting record will be brought into play, and during the general election, he's going to be called out on the meat and potatos of his domestic, foreign, and economic policies.
So far, we don't even know what they are. His supporters don't even know what they are. Nobody does because all he talks about is "hope, change, and yes we can."
I am a lifelong member of the Democratic Party, and will continue to be so in the years to come.
But, in the absence of Hillary Clinton as the party's candidate for President this year, I will keep my options open with regard to who I will vote for.
Because, it would seem as though the Democratic party needs to absorb yet another November ass-kicking before it grows up and learns to be independent of the whackos who encourage it to do silly things...like disenfranchising voters in two key states (Michigan and Florida) and nominating Barrack Obama.
All I have to say is that I hope the super-delegates do the right thing, and save our party from further embarrassment.

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT 2008!!!!!

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:14 AM)

Thanks for pointing out "Delegate Hub", Domenico! It's going to take a while to clean up all the soda I spit all over my keyboard and monitor because I was laughing so hard while checking out the site!

This is the ultimate in spin doctoring...come up with a web site and attempt to pawn it off as some kind of legitimate Democratic Party information and then place in the fine print that it's by one of the candidates!

I especially enjoyed the part about Florida and Michigan...THEY BROKE THE PARTY RULES!!!

I guess all that's left for the Clinton Campaign is to pretend that they're still in control of this race.

Hillary, if this President thing doesn't work out for you I hear that King Friday's looking for a successor in the Neighborhood of Make Believe.

Pete, Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 10:15 AM)

Now we are getting to the place where the rubber meets the road. The attacks are beginning but I am not concerned. As Hillary has said ( if we are to use her math ) she has 35 years of experience. So with all that experience she is taking an old fashioned political butt whipping from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic and then back to the Canadian border!!! Good thing she only has 35 years of experience or the butt kicking may have been worse!!

Ok so here comes this rookie and in one year he puts together a campaign that is so successful it makes all the other candidates in both parties look like amatuers. So much for the "he's inexperienced" argument.As the old saying goes " you can't argue with success."

The truth is senators honestly have never run any type of large organization. Mayors and governers do. So when it comes to the presidency no one can left other than Mike Huckabee, can claim to have any type of large organization management skills. Both McCain and Hillary have bankrupt their campaigns and come back. ( So if they can't effectively manage campaigns and millions of dollars, what in God's green earth makes anyone think they can manage a nation and trillions of dollars? )

This inexperienced rookie has raised more money, spent it more wisely, hired and appointed a better organized team, has made genius tactical decisions, all while mobilizing voters and breaking all types of voting and speech attendance records. All this and its not even half time yet!!! He is like Tiger Woods in politics, kicking butt and taking names.

The truth is no one left in the race has any actual "presidnetial" experience. Hillary is married to an ex president, but thats like being married to plastic surgeon and telling your friends you can give them lipo and breat implants.

Yet still, with all their experience,neither republicans or democrats can take down a young senator who outfalnked all of them in every single way possible.

Let me emphasize this to wake everyone up. HE IS BEATING ALL OF THEM LIKE THEY STOLE HIS PLAYSTATION 3 AND HE HAS DONE IT IN JUST OVER ONE YEAR!!!! He has raised more money, from the American people mind you, not from lobbyists, than anyone in American history. He has mobilized the entire nation to once again take responsibility for our government. He has reminded us that we can't blame Washington for our problems, we are as much to blame as they are if we don't stand up and make our voices heard. So yeah, if thats inexperience, we need all the inexperience we can get.

Finally let me remind everyone. Whoever wins, they will appoint staff members and advisors who have years of experience. Politicians, physicians, lawyers, military and foreign policy experts ,etc. So it isn't like Obama or anyone else will be in the White House flipping a coin and making judgement calls. Whoever wins will also have to contend with congress.

So yeah. I'm glad America is finally at the place where we get it. We finally understand the definition of insanity is to do the same thing with the same people over and over again yet expecting different results. I am like M. Obama. I'm proud we as a nation are getting past being petty and growing up!!!!!!!!!!!!!

E Curry (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 6:16 PM)

The media acts like the Obama wins are huge surprises. Come on, the media has ignored any introspective thinking on Obama's experience and abilities. They have participated in creating a hysterical movement mania. Hillary has been receiving negative responses from the media since day one. The media has taken democratic analylis off the tv viewing if they are too "pro Clinton" I understand the excitement of a movement. But I am afraid Obama will take us right down the tubes, if he can even win. His time will come to be destroyed (and the media will jump on that banwagon as well) if he makes it as the nominee. If he makes it to the white house, he'll be batted around like a mouse caught in a cat fight. This is irresponsible on the media's part and just magic thinking on the part of Obama's supporters. He will not change Washington. Are you kidding me? Read Hillary's book and Carl Bernstein's book (who is not a fan of the Clintons) to see all the effective and efficient work Hillary has accomplished. The international world leaders like the Clintons. She worked with them with the first lady. She is tough when she needs to be and has been in politics since college. She has an amazing resume. Obama has been a "community organizer" I used to like Obama. He is great, charismatic and such a great speaker. We need someone with skills. This is not just cliche. This is so important for our country and world. Obama is presidential material, but he is in kindergarden. We do not have the time to waste while he gets thrown to the wolves in Washington. The clintons have been through the wolves, they know how to handle them. Obama feels like an American Idol spin. We need to get serious here. And Shame on the media for participating in this "movement" which will bring the democratic party down. And as far as Hillary being negative. Geez, she has had mud thrown at her since the beginning. Sometimes, you have to throw the mud back where it came from.

Laan, Grand Rapids, Michigan (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 6:16 PM)

HOW CAN HILLARY BE SERIOUS WITH HER COMMENTS ON BEING PRESIDENT WHEN SHE IS DINING WITH BILL?

LEE WINEINGER (HOBART,INDIANA) (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 6:21 PM)

Excuse me as I use a word I seldom use but some of these responses are so stupid it is sickening to read your opinions. You would much rather vote Republican than to vote for Barack, how stupid is that? Are you Democrat because of Barack,or are you Democratic because the Democratic party embodies what you believe in. I am a strong believer that you demonstrate your character by what you do.....Hillary has demonstrated her character and what I see is not someone I want representing me.

Juanita Stone (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 6:27 PM)

Lets Get Real, I couldn't agree more. With all the promises made by both contenders, Hillary and Obama, I would like to know who's going to pay the bill. Obama is definitely out, Hillary is a maybe, but the more I hear the more I'm leaning for the Old Guy across the aisle.

Gene G. Beyers Sr., Denver, CO (Sent Wednesday, February 20, 2008 6:33 PM)

Here's something to ponder; I've spoken to handful of loyal Democrats (about 25-30) who say that if Obama is Democrat's nominee they'll vote for McCain. And these aren't just white men, there are women as well. Reason, Obama's lack of experience. Myself, voted Democrat since 1972, will also vote for McCain.
What I see here is same mood as 1974 when Watergate ended and Gerald Ford took on little-state governor Jimmy Carter. People were sick of the Richard Nixon, wanted an outsider and so they voted by emotion. As we all know, the rest is history and Carter joined GW Bush as one of the worst presidents in U.S. history. Obama will follow those footsteps because once again, Americans are voting by emotions rather than intelligence.

LM (Sent Friday, February 22, 2008 12:06 PM)

I've been reading through all the comments and several people have noted that Barak is too inexperienced and has not accomplished anything significant. This is a good article by MSNBC that explains his voting record and should be read by anyone who is torn between McCain and Obama.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23276453/

The other comment I have is to note that Barak does have stances on issues, and here's a link to his website.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

Also, when Barak won in Wisconsin, the media did give him airtime for his entire speech, where if you watched the whole thing, he spoke on specific issues with the war, economy, housing, and jobs, etc. As for Clinton not getting air time - she didn't win.
Like when the Giants won the superbowl, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick didn't get on center stage with lots of press time, they got a brief interview in the tunnel. People just aren't interested in the losers.
Barak won't be tossed around if he gets to the White House, he'll have chosen experienced advisors and have a democratic led House and Senate.
And as several others have noted, he's led a pretty sucessful primary, no matter how you spin it.

Andrew, Fairfax, Va (Sent Friday, February 22, 2008 12:25 PM)

hillary has been pistol whipped by the media and people are sick of it. She is a fighter and we should all be proud and honered that she continues to fight for our needs

pat (Sent Friday, February 22, 2008 12:34 PM)

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