Initial thoughts: not a game-changer

Posted: Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:45 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
This was a debate that had few fireworks. Early on, Obama set the tone and seemed to almost dare Clinton to be confrontational as he was dripping with nice things to say about her. Clinton took the cue and the first 45 minutes of the debate was a buddy picture with each complimenting the other (though Obama did it more often than she did).

But thanks to a question by CNN's John King, the two did exchange some not-so-niceties. From health care to the war of words to Iraq, the two candidates did show they have some disagreements. It was still a rather tame exchange.

As for the big picture, the question for everyone watching this debate is: Did Clinton do anything tonight to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer is no. Did she potentially win this debate on points; I think so; it was close but she had a couple of VERY good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was uneven, at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions. It may be because he was a bit stuffed up; he was good tonight, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary) and more importantly the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can xerox) seemed to fall flat.

But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one tonight. And this is how this debate will be judged. Frankly, she seemed reluctant to totally go for the jugular. Take, for instance, the question to her asking whether she believed Obama was NOT qualified to be Commander in Chief. As The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder noted to me, she wouldn't answer that question; instead, she made a positive case for herself but didn't make the case against him. Why? Is it too soon to go that negative against Obama and she'll wait until next week or does she realize it's possible she won't be the nominee and she doesn't want the blame for giving McCain his best talking point in a matchup with Obama. Imagine, frankly, had she said, Obama's not ready for the job. McCain would probably repeat that line every day between now and November. Meanwhile, Obama doesn't shy away from basically making the case that she can't bring the country together.

Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. I wonder if showing some vulnerability might actually help her with some undecided voters.

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Comments

yeah those closing comments sounded an awful lot like Edwards' closing comments back when he was in the running. what he said was:

Edwards said his resolution is to remember amid the political hoopla that there are hungry children, families without health coverage and parents losing their jobs. "All of us will be fine", he said of himself and his rivals: "What's at stake is whether America is going to be fine."

what Hilary said was almost identical.

kristina b, los angeles CA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:54 PM)

SHE WILL NOT WIN BECAUSE SHE HAD NO KNOCKOUT PUNCH TONIGHT. IT IS NOT ABOUT SEMANTICS. HE IS MUCH MORE APPROACHABLE AND A BETTER UNITER THAT IS OBVIOUS TO ALL.

HE ALSO SHOWS BETTER JUDGMENT AND IS BETTER AT TAKING MC CAIN DOWN.

GO BARACK GO BABY..

MONICA, SAN ANTONIO TEXAS (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:55 PM)

Check out Obama and his VP in a special preview

Marv, Strongsville, Ohio (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:55 PM)

Obama debated very well tonight. He brought the crowds in and fused substance in with his oratory skills. Hillary conceded towards the end as I read it.

Sally (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:55 PM)

Hillary's close was (again) Hillary playing the victim. Hillary's use - exploitation, really - of war victims to identify with made me want to hurl.

dan (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:55 PM)

Evidently, her best moment, she won't to be able to Capitalize on. Her ending was Great( i'll give her that).Unfortunately i missed all her word's at the end, but from the crowd response, it went over well.

As i posted on an earlier thread, she'll regret the day she asked for this debate, as it did Nothing to help her cause.

Barack Obama , the next President of the United States of America!!!!!!!

Rick,ky (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:55 PM)

Grace under fire...she is seasoned, experienced, wise, and a pro...she knows the details, has a plan and has the courage to act in the face of all the pundits in this country. She is probably the only one who truly knows there is no Knight on Horseback and that the change we seek comes from inside and has always been with us. Go, Madame President.

Lynnsy Logue, Charlotte, NC (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:56 PM)

Good job on both candidates part. Good luck to Clinton, but Obama has it wrapped. Thanks to both of the candidates for one of the best political primaries in a long time.

Not only is this historic for a woman and an African-American, but also two class acts (despite the petty) and I must applaud the level of politics that this party has reached in a new era of politics.

Thank you both Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama!!

T Terry, Gray, TN (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:56 PM)

I've never donated to a presidential campaign until tonight.
My son fought in Iraq, my husband works for GM and I recently completed school to become a Real Estate Agent. For us, this election is probably the most important issue in our lives.
I've wrestled back and forth between Barack and Hillary, but tonight the debate reinforced my opinion that when the chips are down Barack will be the better president, so I donated to his campaign.
I am under the distinct impression that there has been way too much Clinton and Bush in the drivers seat at the White House. (Most of my adult life actually)
I'd really love to see someone totally different in office, and you can't get much different than Barack Obama. He hasn't had the chance to be corrupted by the monster called Washington, and he's still genuinly concerned about America. I believe he's strong and has the capacity to listen and learn.
I believe that Hillary would be better served as vice president.
I don't know how Barack will fare here in Ohio, but I'm hoping and praying that change will truly come to America. We deserve better!!!!!!!

Teresa McCoy, Defiance OH (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:30 PM)

Overall this was a very satisfactory debate. I think both candidates did well.

What I hoped for was that Senator Clinton would show more of who she is and not so much of what she hopes to become...since ultimately, no matter where we go...even should it be the Oval Office...there we are. Don't listen so much to your advisors, listen to your heart. There were glimpses of that heart this evening. Great.

Because of that, I admit for the first time that I am willing to say out loud, there is a possibility that I could be comfortable with a joint ticket. Yes, I could be comfortable with Obama/Clinton in 2008.

William, Erin, Wisconsin (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:31 PM)

You are truly idiots if you believe that Obama even came close to her tonight on this debate. She had it all over him, hands down. I am not American, and am therefore, objective on this and I can tell you, objectively, that there was no comparison. The fact that you can't see this causes me great concern for your country. Say hello to another Republican administration (if Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, McCain will win....guaranteed) and when that happens, you can forget about a recession. A depression will be right around the corner.

Andrea Berger (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:31 PM)

Hillary came across as she knows she is done , and i think she most likey is.

Jim , Eugene,Oregon (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:31 PM)

Maybe I'm cycnical, but I felt that Clinton's final remarks were a calculated attempt to appear to be emotional. It's the only thing that has worked when the chips are down (e.g. New Hampshire tears) and it seems to be what she's falling back on.

mike, San Diego, CA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:31 PM)

Not to mention that the closing line sounded an awful lot like a line her husband's speechwriter wrote. Hypocrisy much.

Bill Clinton, 92: "The hits that I took in this election are nothing compared to the hits the people of this state and this country have been taking for a long time."

Hillary Clinton, tonight: "You know, the hits I’ve taken in life are nothing compared to what goes on every single day in the lives of people across our country."

Casey Schmidt, Seattle WA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:32 PM)

Clinton's plagerism of John Edwards' frequent campaign statement, speaking of the Presidential candidates, that "We'll be alright. What's at stake is will Americans be fine," should encourage John Edwards to endorse Obama.

Otherwise, the Clintons are political Borg. Resistance is futile.

Don, Maosn, Texas (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:32 PM)

Andrea Berger (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:32 PM)

Until yesterday, Mark Penn was running the show.

There have been many shootouts in the Clinton campaign this past Fall and Winter and Penn won them all--because that's what Hillary wanted.

She was mad as hell and ready to kick ass. Anybody who suggested otherwise was silenced.

I fully expected, and predicted here, that there would be blood in the coming weeks... guns blazing and Howitzers booming.

Something happened yesterday. The numbers got a real hard crunch and reality set in.

Hillary was informed first by Bill and then others became involved... it was a scene.

Hillary refused to accept the news and was on the rampage, as far as anyone knew... maybe Bill knew.

But tonight something incredible happened. Mark Penn was ignored. Hillary went out and did what Hillary, seemingly, wanted to do. The other side of the dark side of the moon.

Without conceding, apparently she has decided to go out in style. And to play it for all it's worth.

She seems to have let go of the tiger, at least for now, and accepted what appears to be inevitable and to take whatever chance is left on being... gracious.

We'll see.

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:32 PM)

USE YOU GOD GIVEN RATIONALITY TO SEE THAT CLINTON HAS MADE HERSELF LOOK HORRIBLE IN THAT CLOSING SPEECH. SHE HAS MENTIONED IN TODAYS DEBATE THAT ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS, THEN GOES ON TO TALK ABOUT THE WOUNDED SOLDIERS THAT : SHE PUT INTO GREATER DANGER BY VOTING TO AUTHORIZE THE WAR IN IRAQ. OPEN UP YOUR EYES PEOPLE! SHE WAS ALL TALK AT THE END AND NO ACTION, EXACTLY WHAT SHE ACCUSED OBAMA OF DOING! LASTLY, WAS THE STANDING OVATION FOR HER CLOSING REMARK OR MORE FOR THE END OF THE DEBATE? BE HONEST WITH YOURSELVES.

joas salas northbergen nj (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:33 PM)

Although, I have never liked her or Bill, tonight was the first time, I actually felt any admiration for Hillary. At least she is going out with some dignity.

Pia (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:33 PM)

Hillary had a hard time differentiating herself from Barack because their positions are virtually identical, with only minor nuances. If we wanted experience that she keeps harping on, she'd be debating Richardson, Biden or Dodd. And, in her closing argument she conveniently forgot to mention she had borrowed the line from Edward's playbook. Talk about plagiarism! Bottom line: Clinton didn't appear authentic.
Go Obama!

Frank S, Bellingham, WA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:33 PM)

I believe they both did well, but Senator Clinton seemed to be in control of the pace for most of the debate. I think she could have attacked more on his hidden earmarks which no one seemed to notice that he evaded clarifying. I would feel much more secure watching Senator Clinton debate Senator McCain than I would if Senator Obama was the candidate. Don't give up Senator Clinton!

John, Waco, tx. (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:34 PM)

Too bad her best moment of the debate was when she went and copied a line from John Edwards. Which the first poster in this thread pointed out.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:34 PM)

Not a game changer and fortunately not a Party breaker.
Both candidates were careful not to damage our chances as a party to regain the White House. It is clear that the loser will ask...no, demand that their supporters get behind the nominee. I will do that. It is time for all of us to prepare for that. It is time to prepare to come together. Then it is time rise up and go to work for this country.

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:34 PM)

What she said at the end was rated 70-75% approval from the Live People Meter; Obama's comments were rated 50%:
The question was about leadership and the candidates were asked to name a time of crisis in their life that tested them the most.

Obama first named having a single mom as a crisis; his life was rocky, he made mistakes, went off course, and "learning to take responsibility for--uh--my own actions"; I was a community organizer; need to bring people together; change washington.

Clinton said, "Everyone here knows I've lived through crisis, challenges in my life"; was grateful for the prayers and wishes of Americans all over; her crisis were nothing compared to "what I see in American lives all over"; "I am honored to be here with Barack Obama. (No matter the outcome) We will both be fine; We have the support of our families. I hope we can say the same for the American people."

Lora, Milton WV (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:36 PM)

Interesting that her word choice was "xerox" --- the term only reinforced the perception that she is outdated and out of touch.

CButler; Miami, Florida (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:38 PM)

Hillary STOLE her closing comments from John Edwards. And after she talked about Obama plagiarizing she has the NERVE to do herself in an even worse way. She's a master politician with high connections. She could care less about the American people. I'm voting OBAMA for President.

Carlos, SF, CA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:38 PM)

Chuck:

For once--tough for you, since you are chief Obama cheerleader--give Clinton her due. The closing represented grace and strength, not surrender. It also displayed her tremendous empathy--not for herself, but for the country.

I'll repeat this line one last time. If we all live to be 100 years old, we will not accomplish the good work Hillary has in one day of her public life.

Whatever happens in Texas and Ohio, this country is better in every way because of Hillary and Bill Clinton.

SJS, Kansas CIty, MO (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:39 PM)

Hillary did a little speech borrowing herself from her husband and John Edwards on her "lovely closing" that everyone is talking about.

Obama 08!

C,Northampton,PA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:39 PM)

Wow, aren't you three about as arrogant as Obama is: to assume that you know exaclty how this debate will be judged. So glad that you know all of these things so that we poor stupid people don't actually have to think for ourselves. Why is it that MSNBC and all of its affiliates seem to be such blind followers of Obama? It's really getting tiresome and you are all losing any shred of credibility you ever had. You could at least try to have some semblance of impartiality. It seems like all the MSM people have their heads so far up Obama's butt they can see out his mouth.

None of your business, SD, CA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:40 PM)

I think it was a good debate but she did not have a knock out punch. I think the best moment for Obama was when he said Clinton makes it sound like 20 million folks are delusional. I am glad he said that! She even gave a look like she knew he was right. The Clintons just don't understand, but prayerfully she will soon as he becomes the nominee. Go Obama!

C Whitfield, Centreville, VA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:40 PM)

Barack is continuing to peak adding much more substance along with his skillful delivery.

Re: the experience difference.... It has been overplayed. Experience as first lady (or first husband) only counts so much (Is first lady Bush ready to run next?) And if experience at a failed endeavor such as healthcare reform is so valuable, it's too bad we can't sign George W. up for a third term as he has undoubtedly learned so much from the failures of his fist two terms.....

David, Boston (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:40 PM)

It is clearly evident that Hillary Clinton is the best qualified Commander-In-Chief ready on day one. She has clearly done more to enhance the quality of life for our military, veterans and family members. For example, the American Legion gave her the Unsung Hero Award for her dedication to working on veteran issues.

Larry Romo, San Antonio, TX (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:40 PM)

I've watched my share of presidential dabates and must reiterate what I'm sure many people lament: that these things often gloss over issues and are peppered with sound bites and cheap shots. Tonight's debate went into a bit more depth particularly on the health care issue (despite the moderators) but I think
the audience would benefit from greater substance. My suggestion would be to have a series of debates, each dealing with a specific topic agreed by people to be of paramount importance: the Iraq debate, the health care debate, the economy debate, etc. In this way we may get a more detailed understanding of their positions, their records and how they might implement their ideas.

Mark Figueroa, Hoboken, NJ (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:41 PM)

Thank you for playing Hillary, time to go back and finish your hard work as a senator. Now on to the REAL business, How will Obama beat McCain? Who will he pick as VP to make up for his lack of military experience. I think Wes Clark would make a great VP to compliment Obama, would do you guys think?

Tim (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:42 PM)

"Barack Obama showed tonight why millions of Americans from all parties and regions have cast their vote for change – because they know that our problem is not a lack of good ideas, it’s that Washington is a place where good ideas go to die. Barack Obama is the one candidate who can change that by taking on the division, the point-scoring, and the lobbyists so we can finally provide struggling families with affordable health care and college, a middle-class tax cut, and an energy plan that creates millions of new green jobs."

Our country will be blessed to have President Barack Obama

colene, New York, New York (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:43 PM)

Hillary Clinton Borrows Edwards Finishing Line

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAYItnI-lPo

From Urbanagora:

Did anyone notice Hillary totally plagiarized John Edward's closing line in the debate. In I think at least 2 debates at the very end Edward's said "After all of this is over we're all going to be fine, this is about making sure the American people are fine." Hillary basically just cribbed that and used it herself.

How dare she after the "change you can xerox" line.

I remember Edwards using this same bit more than once. No one in the media is picking this up yet. Her high point of the night was STOLEN.

Concession speech:

"Today, I am suspending my campaign for the Democratic nomination for the presidency. But I want to say this to everyone: with Elizabeth, with my family, with my friends, with all of you and all of your support, this son of a mill worker is going to be just fine. Our job now is to make certain that America will be fine." -John Edwards

November 15, 2007 debate:

"You know, before I came over here tonight, I was thinking, we're going to have this debate; when we finish, all of you are going to be on television saying, oh, who scored points, who won the debate. All of us are going to be fine. The question is, will America be fine?"
-John Edwards

October 30, 2007 debate:

"As a matter of fact, it's not about any of us. The truth is, when this election is over, I'm going to be fine. Senator Clinton is going to be fine. Senator Obama's going to be fine. Will America be fine? And will we ensure -- and I think this is the great moral test of our generation -- will we ensure that our children have a better life than we have had? That's the responsibility we have." - John Edwards

Oberman now has this, he just said he did this in December too. He hat tipped Politico, but we had it first at Urbanagora.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:43 PM)

I think Hillary was flirting with plagiarism tonight!!
She was using a lot of John Edwards lines !!
Sen. Barack Obama Congratulations !!!!
You Sir are going to make a Great President.

Ken Collins/ Wagoner, Oklahoma (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:44 PM)

I thought Campbell Brown did a poor job as moderator. The first third was OK--but why did it seem that every question of asked of Hillary first--which meant Obama had more time to compose an answer, and then he just basically agreed with what she said, but was able to add a few more things that he thought up while she responded first. The rest of the "debate" was anything but--this is where I think Campbell Brown failed to control it. Obama answered every question by simply repeating what he says in all his speeches, namely, "When I am president, I will do this, I will do that..." (Ya, and a chicken in every pot, too.) The moderator should have insisted that he state HOW he was going to accomplish this and that...Too bad we weren't given the opportunity to learn more about it--but I suppose, what difference does it make--he's on a roll and no one seems to care that he won't be able to deliver on most of the stuff he is promising and not because he doesn't want to do those things, but no one person, even the president, can do these things. For example, the president of the US does not decide how much money teachers are going to earn ("WHen I am president, teachers are going to be given raises"). The president has no power to raise the minimum wage ("When I am president, I will raise the minimum age every year"). The president can't give every college student $4000 or even $4.00 ("When I am president, I will give every college student $4000 a year").

Karen, Newtown, CT (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:44 PM)

It's Obama Time!!!!

Felicia Woods (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:49 PM)

I kept finding myself drawn to Hillary everytime she she used the word "I" and "Me". Regardless of how much she has done or will do for this country if President, I will never vote for her.

Susan Renton, WA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:49 PM)

How ironic: in attacking Sen. Obama for using two lines in a speech that were not his own, Sen. Clinton's supposed punch-out line "change you can Xerox" line wasn't hers. Clearly, it was fed to her beforehand by someone in her camp -- utterly no different than Gov. Patrick feeding Sen. Obama a line a week ago. All rather Shakespearean -- full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Eric, Columbia MO (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:50 PM)

Obama won! He's unstoppable. Obama had more substance in his response.

HILLARY actually got BOOED for negative speaking, once again. How embarrassing is that? I really was trying to give Hillary a fair shake, but SHE BLEW IT. This is the old politics Americans want to get rid of. She's clearly a person of the past. Bye-Bye, Mrs Clinton and thanks for the ride...

Meanwhile, Obama is moving fast-forward into the future...

Patrick (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:50 PM)

A truly great moment of politics. It was GREAT! I am proud of the DP. Although I think Barack won, they both were strong. At this point, in my book, they’re both winners, no matter what happens next…

Silver Spring, MD (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:51 PM)

Her closing statement tonight was the real deal and she hit it out of the ballpark! This is what a President of the United States sounds like. Ann Richards and Barbara Jordan are looking down from heaven with big smiles on their faces tonight!

Diane, Tx. (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:51 PM)

Hillary stole words from John Edwards in a previous debate, using them in her big closing comments....

http://youtube.com/watch?v=zAYItnI-lPo

Also, compare Hillary's closing remarks to these words from John Edwards again, when he announced the suspension of his campaign:

"But I want to say this to everyone: with Elizabeth, with my family, with my friends, with all of you and all of your support, this son of a millworker's gonna be just fine. Our job now is to make certain that America will be fine."

And, she talks about Obama lifting words from someone else.

Democrat, Pittsburgh, PA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:52 PM)

I think it just showed that Obama was Presidential and Hillary was Vice!!

collette, farmington, nm (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:52 PM)

Wow, Hillary's emotions betrayed her. I thought the part about the veterns was great, and then the bombshell last few sentenced will doom her run for presidency. "What a great man you are", ""What a great, great honor this has been" and the BIGGEST ONE OF ALL "Whatever happens, happens.."
That is concession talk. That is talk about ending a campaign. What a terrible, terrible sentence to uder in an emotional moment.
What "winner" says "Oh, well, what ever happens, happens.." I think the moment when from an ultimate high to devestating moment where she revealed her true feellings about her campaign right now.
She lost the nomination in about 3 sentences.
How can you go vote for her after she almost conceded on stage to him?
"Oh well, whatever happens, happens…"
Disaster.

C Dalton, Middleton MA (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:54 PM)

I hope the people of Texas and Ohio are not swayed by all of the Obama fanfare that has been generated by the press. Hillary is clearly the better candidate. She showed that again in tonight's debate. Obama needs a few more years in the senate. He does not fully grasp the specific details on most issues. I do like Obama. I just think Hillary is better prepared by her life experiences for the trials and tribulations that come with being president.

Jim AZ (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:56 PM)

Glad that this will be over, soon, and glad that Sen. Clinton might, after all, go down on a high note, and not screeching and clawing at the convention. This is just a hope, at this moment, but one backed up by the numbers. HRC for senate leader, and BO for president!

Carthage (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:57 PM)

Wrong again, Todd. I guess you are in the right business after all.

The statement at the end reminds voters why she continues to fight. It reminds voters that despite what you in the media try to feed us she is stellar human being who has dedicated her life to America.

BRockNYLA, New York, NY (Sent Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:59 PM)

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