First thoughts: Party crasher
Posted: Monday, February 25, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Crashing the party: By announcing yesterday on
Meet the Press that he’s making another White House bid, Ralph Nader crashed a party where -- at least on the Democratic side -- everyone is having fun and likes their choices. By now, everyone knows the story: In a 2000 race when analysts and voters believed there were actually few differences between Al Gore and George Bush, Ralph Nader ran for president; he picked up 2.7% of the popular vote; and, by most accounts, he took votes away from Gore in the closest presidential election in decades. Nader ran for president for years later and picked up just 0.4% of the vote. With Obama possibly on the ballot, who votes for this guy? Frankly, what room is there for him with any of the three candidates left? All can lay claim to being more reformers than any set of previous nominees in years. This could be Nader's jump-the-shark moment when he finds he has fewer supporters and donors (and volunteers) than ever before and ends up struggling to get on ballots.
VIDEO: Ralph Nader speaks with NBC’s Tim Russert of "Meet the Press" about the opposing candidates of the 2008 presidential election.
***
Clinton's changing tactics: As today’s
Los Angeles Times notes, Clinton is changing her tactics and her tone. Last Thursday, she was honored to share the debate stage with Obama. Two days later, she’s wagging her finger, “Shame on you, Barack Obama.” The next day, she's mocking him for his overly hopeful rhetoric. Which Clinton will show up at Tuesday’s debate? What got her fired up? Did the media's interpretation of her closing debate statement as some sort of concession fire her up? Whatever it was, something changed -- she's as aggressive as ever. Will this be a sustained attack this time? The one criticism inside camp Clinton that seems correct is that the campaign has never been able to sustain a negative attack on Obama. Of course, Clinton is doing it rhetorically, but her TV ads are all soft.
*** The fight over NAFTA: And speaking of Tuesday’s debate, we certainly know which topic might get all the attention: NAFTA. In previous debates, trade has been a back-burner issue. But with the upcoming contest in Ohio -- a state devastated by manufacturing job losses -- Obama is pointing to the Clintons for being responsible for the trade agreement, while Bill Clinton is blaming the Bush Administration for failing to uphold NAFTA’s worker and environmental protections. As we've noted before, nine times out of 10, a Democrat seen as pro-NAFTA in a Ohio primary would be the underdog -- which is why Clinton is pushing back so hard on the characterization that she is someone pro-NAFTA. She'd like folks to see her as ambivalent. Of course, neither Dem is calling for cancelling the trade agreement.
VIDEO: The war of words escalate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. NBC's Lee Cowan reports. ***
Ohio is tightening: Almost two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll had Clinton leading Obama by more than 20 points in Ohio (55%-34%). Well, that lead has been cut in half, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll -- it’s Clinton 51%, Obama 40%. The poll was conducted from Feb. 18-23. A
University of Cincinnati poll, conducted Feb. 21-24, shows Clinton leading Obama by eight points (47%-39%).
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the gap between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the race for the Ohio primary.
***
Obama's negatives: Bill Kristol’s New York Times column is the latest example of conservatives beginning to mock Obama’s rhetoric. We guess it’s getting close to general election time… By the way, Louis Farrakhan’s semi-endorsement of Obama yesterday was pretty much the last thing the Illinois senator needed. Toss in the blind photo Drudge attack of Obama today showing him doing what many American statesman do when overseas -- dress in local garb -- and it looks like this could be the week that the kitchen sink is tossed at Obama. Will Clinton be asked at her foreign policy speech today if her campaign is circulating this photo?
*** Delegate update: As the New York Times’ John Harwood points out, this week is first one this year that we haven’t had at least one nominating contest. Here is how things stand right now in the Dem race: The NBC News official hard count is Obama 1,183, Clinton 1,031. There are 30 delegates unallocated including 14 from Maryland, 10 from Colorado, and one each from Georgia, New York, Tennessee, Democrats Abroad and Hawaii. In our count of superdelegates, it’s Clinton 257, Obama 194. In the GOP race, McCain has 882 delegates -- plus 82 of Romney's, per the AP -- for a total of 964. Romney still leads Huckabee -- 286-246.
*** On the trail: Clinton, in DC, delivers a foreign policy speech and then attends a fundraiser; Huckabee campaigns in Rhode Island; McCain spends his day stumping in Cleveland, OH; and Obama, also in Ohio, holds rallies in Cincinnati and Dayton. Also, Bill Clinton is in Ohio and Michelle Obama is in Texas.
Countdown to the MSNBC debate in Ohio: 1 day
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 8 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 253 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 330 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639 to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.