First Thoughts: 'Meet me in Ohio'
Posted: Tuesday, February 26, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
CLEVELAND -- “Meet me in Ohio,” Clinton snapped at Obama on Saturday over his mailings that hit her on NAFTA and health care. “Let's have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign.” And here we are. Tonight’s debate, which takes place here at Cleveland State University, is the final debate until the pivotal March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas. And it could -- depending on what happens -- be the final debate of the Democratic race. It lasts from 9:00 pm ET to 10:30 pm ET, and it’s moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams, along with NBC’s Tim Russert. One other thing: It is snowing here, and the local NBC affiliate forecasts up to eight inches of snow by this afternoon.
*** What to watch for: The $64,000 question is: Which Hillary shows up -- the one we saw at the end of the Austin debate, or Ms. "Xerox" and "Shame on you, Barack Obama"? Certainly, this unknown tone she'll take at tonight's debate has a way of forcing Obama to be prepared for anything. It's not a bad place for her to be, in control of the tenor of this debate. Of course, is there such thing, after 20 debates, as a knockout blow anymore? Maybe not for Clinton but possibly for Obama. If he handles all of her shots, then he could put this thing away. If he wobbles, it could be a long six days for the front-runner. And keep in mind: The debate will be broadcast on all of the NBC affiliates in Ohio, and with weather likely to keep folks inside, there's a captive audience. More importantly, if you want a clue as to which Clinton is showing up tonight, think about this fact: Not a single Clinton TV ad is negative on Obama right now, in either Ohio or Texas.
*** Can you hear me now? Curious, who is Clinton listening to right now? When the going gets tough for a candidate, most end up ignoring the advice of those who they believe failed them for the last year and start only listening to a select few. Who are those select few anymore, besides husband Bill? Is it Maggie Williams? Ann Lewis? Mandy Grunwald? Has Mark Penn lost his place at the table? This may be why there are so many freelancers taking credit for Clinton saying she'll do this, or Clinton saying she'll do that. There's a lot of advice circulating, but we're guessing only a select few folks left in the Clinton inner-circle that the candidate is listening to.
*** Is a win a win? With tonight's debate and yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showing that Obama has cut her lead in Ohio from 21 points to 11 in about two weeks, it's probably worth posing this question: What happens if Clinton wins Ohio, but just by a point or two? A win is a win, of course. But is there something to say for making up nearly 20 points? Then again, with two new polls showing Obama leading Clinton nationally by double digits -- 51%-39% per USA Today/Gallup and 54%-38% per the New York Times/CBS -- the Clinton campaign would celebrate any win, no matter the margin. Nevertheless, according to our delegate math, Clinton winning both Ohio and Texas by 52%-48% would net her a combined 5-6 delegates. Yet toss in a potential Obama landslide in Vermont, and then her net March 4 haul could be as little as 2-5 delegates.
*** A split decision? While Clinton continues to lead the contest in Ohio, that’s no longer true in Texas, according to a new CNN survey. In that poll, it’s Obama 50%, Clinton 46%. A week ago, per the CNN poll, it was Clinton 50%, Obama 48%. Is it becoming more likely that March 4 becomes a split decision, with Clinton winning Ohio and Obama Texas? And if so, what does that mean? Does the race still go on? And speaking of those new national polls, how demoralizing is it for Terry McAuliffe to have to attempt to raise money today with what’s on the front pages of the New York Times and USA Today? Should Clinton folks be worried that rank-and-file Dems who view the two Dems equally favorably are simply falling in line behind the front-runner?
*** No Dodd about it: While all the vanquished GOP presidential candidates this cycle have seemed to endorse someone after their departure (Giuliani, Romney, Brownback for McCain; Hunter for Huckabee), not a single Democrat has weighed in -- until now. Per the AP, Dodd will endorse Obama today in Cleveland, and an Obama campaign source tells First Read it will occur at this morning’s press conference at 9:30 am ET. And, yes, Dodd becomes yet another superdelegate pickup for Obama. Perhaps it’s only fitting that Dodd is endorsing on a debate day. It was Dodd's attack on Clinton on the driver's license issue for illegal aliens that seemed to be the beginning of the steady fall we've witnessed over the last four months since that Philly debate.
*** All about Iraq: Though some may think McCain let something slip yesterday with his remark about his campaign potentially being a referendum on Iraq, don't buy it. This is what McCain wants this election to be about. He can't have this be a domestic election, it's not his strong suit so by giving straight talk on Iraq, it's pretty clear he knows if he can turn this election in a safety and national security election, he's got a boxer's chance. If this thing is about the economy, it may not matter who the GOP nominee is; it could be a potential disaster for the party. But the problem for McCain? If Iraq seems stable this summer, then that could force the electorate to not worry about it as much. It's a real box McCain may be in as far as the issue landscape.
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Clinton holds a town hall in Lorain, OH; Huckabee also is in Ohio, campaigning in Columbus and Mason; McCain is in Cincinnati and West Chester and then raises money in Tyler, TX; and Obama holds that press conference this morning in Cleveland. Also, Bill Clinton is in Texas.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 252 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 329 days
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