Poll: McCain looking good in FL

Posted: Thursday, February 28, 2008 12:57 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
McCain leads both Obama and Clinton in potential general-election match ups with either candidate in the all-important swing state of Florida, according to a Mason-Dixon poll out today.

McCain leads Obama 47%-37% and Clinton 49%-40%. The Arizona senator leads the Democrats across the board. About 80% of Republicans are behind McCain. Only 66% of Democrats are behind Obama and 72% are backing Clinton in one-one-one match-ups with McCain. Currently, 17% of Democrats indicate that in a match up with Obama, they'd support McCain; 16% say so in a match up with Clinton. Seventeen percent of Dems also say they are undecided in a match up with Obama; 13% say so with regard to McCain-Clinton. Those numbers though could be a reflection of McCain being the presumptive nominee and Obama and Clinton still engaged in a fight for the nomination.

Floridian Democrats also weighed in on whether and/or how their delegation should be seated at the national convention -- 28% said the state party should hold another Democratic primary or caucus; 24% believe the delegation should be seated, according to the Jan. 29th primary; 15% say “the Florida Democratic Party knowingly violated the national party rules, so it should accept the penalty”; 13% favor a delegation that is split evenly between Clinton and Obama; and 20% say they aren’t sure.

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Comments

THAT HAS NO BASIS to me because Obama has never campaigned in Florida, let him campaign there for 1 week and then show me some results!!

Dante (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:08 PM)

Exactly what I thought!!! All of the Hillary supporters like myself are going to vote for McCain. The media has pushed this obama on everyone and we will have a republican for 4 more years.. Cmon Texas and Ohio wake up smell the coffee.. OBAMA WILL NOT WIN!!!!!

kevin,fl (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:10 PM)

Texas & Florida may be the only big states McCan't carries in the general election. Versus Obama, he is looking at a national landslide disaster. Face it, no Repuke is going to win California, NY and the midwest big electoral states. I bet Obama beats McCan't 352-186 in the Novemeber elections.

Jesse, Fallon NV (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:13 PM)

Ron, TX (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:13 PM)

Interesting on the "seating delegates" question...nice to know that Florida voters are as confused and frustrated as the rest of us!

But can someone refresh on why we're calling Florida a swing state? Seems like it been trending fairly RED to me over the past few years...

Lisa, New Britain, CT (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:15 PM)

The key will be turnout. With Dems' voting at up to 200% higher rates then in the past I am quite sure that Florida will go D this time. R's don't have as much room to improve turn-out.

brian wood, chicago IL (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:15 PM)

Grasping at straws? I mean really to compare them in a state wherein Obama has never campaigned that is like predicting Hillary to win Ohio with the percentage she was polled at 1 year ago!!

Crystal (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:16 PM)

If McCain wasn't ahead in Florida, considering neither Obama or Clinton campaigned there, then that would be the story. But his lead isn't a story. Of course he would be ahead at this time.

Until either Obama or Clinton wins, and campaigns in Florida, any polls in a match up with McCain are worthless.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:17 PM)

It really does NOT matter, the voters are going to write in Hillary, so it is a McCain/ Hillary battle.
We will write in Senator Clinton on the ballot. WHY? B/C we can!

YES WE CAN (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:17 PM)

I live in Florida and I think our votes should count. I am one of those Democrats that would never vote for Obama and know not anyone voting for him. If Obama is the nominee McCain is going to get a Lot of Democrats vote. There is not enought teenie boppers, blacks, and a few white men to carry the day for Obama.

Donna, Fl. (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:18 PM)

I would say that the numbers for the Democrats (especially Obama) are pretty good considering they have not campaign or run adds in Florida. This particular fact is quite important. If you look at the example of the Obama campaign, he always starts off down +10% in a state, but moves into contention once he starts campaigning and advertising in a particular area. I would believe that is pretty much the same for any candidate.

John, Dallas (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:18 PM)

This is what you get when you do not heed the will of the people in Florida and you strip their delegates to your party's convention. I never have figured out why either party tries to protect Iowa and New Hampshire when those states have the smallest amount of diversity in the country. Hopefully, the Republicans will sweep Florida and Michigan in the elections to serve notice on this poor behavior by the Democratic National Committee.

Tom Bossier City, LA (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:18 PM)

Much less than this far in advance of,say, Super Tuesday, every poll showed that a Clinton/Giuliani match up was inevitable and McCain had no chance. If the pundits haven't learned to take these months in advance polls with a grain of salt, the public and the candidates certainly have. For one thing, Obama hasn't campaigned yet in Florida.

Felix, CO (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:20 PM)

The democrats stupidity is going to give Florida and Michigan to McCain.

Patty,sd,ca (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:20 PM)

I am embarrassed to be a democrat. This media came after Hillary in every way shape and form. Hillary would have won by a landslide in November if the media would have gotten behind her. Instead we are now divided. We have a candidate that is not qualified to be President and won't.

kevin,fl (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:21 PM)

Has Obama even campaigned in FL?? If not, doesn't it make this poll significantly scewed?

John son (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:23 PM)

I am not surprised by this match up pole in Florida. I am a Dem living in Mn. but if Obama gets the nomination over Clinton; I will vote for Mccain. In my book Obama is not ready to be President. There are alot of people like me out there.

E Heffron (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:23 PM)

The states Obama is least likely to win in November are Utah, Kentucky, Arizona, Oklahoma, and Florida. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins the other forty-five.

The treatment of Florida as a top-tier swing state for Democrats is not only fighting the last war, but two wars ago; states like Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado will flip LONG before Florida for most any Democrat. In Obama's particular case, he has a better chance of winning states that would normally be impossible for a Democrat to win in than he does Florida, because he campaigned heavily and beat the turnout of the entire Republican primary in normally safe red states like Kansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Georgia, and Alabama (listed in increasing order of difficulty for him to win in November).

Consequently, even if he loses Florida, Obama can potentially beat McCain in a forty-five state landslide.

Shadow, Hamden, CT (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:23 PM)

To act as if MACAIN would send soldiers like himself off to die and abandon them whatever the history of the dems and repubs being misled by BUSH is against reason .HE WAS IN A NORTH VIETNAMESE PRISON CAMP he knows what its all about sacrifice .OBAMMA says he will attack PACKISTAN AFGANISTAN AND REENTER IRAQ all with out ever fighting in a war rather easy to talk the talk when never knowing the consequnces of your actions little man go to the back of the class and let a hero work things out.MACAIN will surely get dems votes as well as his share of disgusted dems OBAMMA will not get the repubs in the general they stick together look how they still support BUSH 63%

kenn (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:26 PM)

CLINTON WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.

BILL C. (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:26 PM)

Of course Florida is going to vote Republican.
Democrats there, and in Michigan have been disenfranchised by their own party.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:30 PM)

The question is why are they doing a poll before the Democrats have picked a nominee? Of course Grandpa Mccain would win the poll.

Cartier, Dallas, Texas (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:34 PM)

This Florida Poll does not look good for McCain. I thought with the backing of the Governor he should have a 20 pt. lead. He also campainged in Florida. With the power outage, if not rectified, the Governor will take a hit.

sozzi, mamaroneck, NY (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:35 PM)

Are 16 to 17 percent of Florida democrats just nuts? Why would they want to relive the past 7 years -- and get blamed for it besides?

Mira (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:36 PM)

24% of the Florida democrats want the delegates seated as is, 28% said they wanted a new primary or caucus and 15% say they should just follow the rules as is,

yes Sen. Clinton speaks for that 24% huh? I guess support those who agree with you, the other 76% just don't matter right?

Allen A (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:37 PM)

This will all change when Obama seats the delegates at the Convention after all this is wrapped up and the Dems can stop bickering about this nonsense. Hillary will have to be the one to mend fences in Florida after she bows out.

If she doesn't, she doesn't deserve to be part of the DNC.

Ron, Greenville, SC (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:38 PM)

Once Bush invaded Iraq and lied and lied and lied to the American peoople since--he's still doing it--I swore that I'd never again vote for a Republican for President (after having voted Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1968 and 1972, Gerald Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1980 and 1984, Bush in 1988 and 1992, Dole in 1996, Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004).

Unfortunately, I'm probably going to break that oath if Obama gets the Democratic nomination.

There is no possible way I can vote for a balloon filled with hot air and no substance. McCain has substance; Clinton has substance; Obama has nothing but pretty rhetoric.

DAMN, i'LL TRULY HATE TO VOTE REPUBLICAN, BUT I SIMPLY CANNOT BRING MYSELF TO VOTE FOR AN EMPTY SHELL LIKE OBAMA!--THE MAN ABSOLUTELY HAS NO SUBSTANCE!!

Stu Hyvonen, Saginaw, MI (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:38 PM)

Polls about what might happen in November are about as interesting now as polls about what was going to happen in the nominating contests NINE months ago. Nine months ago Obama didn't have a prayer of winning his party's nomination and McCain was likewise a very, very long shot for his.

John, Morgan Hill, CA (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:39 PM)

"POLL: MCCAIN LOOKING GOOD IN FL"
--Hey, hey, hey FirstRead ...don't you think you're being kind of harsh on the comparative beauty of Floridians?

--Actually, McCain looks good everywhere, especially in the Republican mirror.

Nicholas: Minnesota (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:39 PM)

Does that vote take into account the fact that Democratic voters have been turning out in 2 to 1 margins versus Republican voters?

I bet it doesn't... which makes it about as useful as a wet cowpie in the summer sun.
Ron, TX (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:13 PM)

*************************

Yes democrats have outnumbered Republicans. The question is are Florida & Michigan Democrats going to vote democrat come November?

Probably not.

Patty,sd,ca (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:44 PM)

John Lewis proves the Harry Truman adage: if you want a friend in Washington, get a dog!

With friends like John Lewis, Hillary Clinton doesn't need enemies!

Fred C Dobbs Sierra Madre, CA (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:45 PM)

Ron, TX:
--Do you think that the Democratic numbers might be low, because of the anomosity between the remaining two? Supporters of Obama claim they won't vote for Clinton and likewise? Or why with the turnout and American angst as is, are the poll numbers not demonstrating that? Any other ideas?
**Maybe the Democrats will actually show up and the Republicans won't--that wouldn't be reflected in these polls.

Those numbers are 6 months early and bunk. Merely a starting point.

Nicholas Minnesota (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:45 PM)

I choose to believe that Florida voters can be as open-minded as the rest of us. As with elsewhere, Obama will make great gains there, as he's done everywhere else.

And Donna, what planet are you living on? Have you been ignoring all the facts that show that Obama is winning virtually every category of voters (and making great strides among the ones he's not winning outright).

Thanks for being close-minded and marginalizing a great candidate (sarcasm alert).

Like I said, I choose to believe MOST Floridians have the capability to be open-minded.

Lisa, New Britain, CT (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:46 PM)

I'm backing Hillary Clinton, but I, too, will vote for McCain if Obama wins the Dem nomination, even if Hillary asks us not to. This is a critical time in our nation's history, and I'm just not ready to hand things over to the new kid on the block.

Don, Dayton, OH (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:46 PM)

Looks like the Obama retards continue to be in denial. Hope doesn't put food on the table.

Jack Glenn (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:46 PM)

BY ALL MEANS CLINTON SHOULD GET (ALL) THE VOTES IN FLORIDA. WHAT DID SHE DO WRONG? SHE WON!!!

OBAMA IS THE ONLY ONE WHO RAN AN AD, SHE DIDN'T.
SHE WON MORE VOTES, HE DIDN'T

ALL THE NAMES WERE ON THE BALLOT.
EVERYONE HAD THE SAME CHANCE SHE HAD.
SHE UPHELD THE PARTY RULES, NOT TO CAMPAIGN BEFORE THE PRIMARY. IT'S NOT HER FAULT IF THE PARTY RULES ARE STUPID.

WHY SHOULD SHE BE DEPRIVED OF HER VERY IMPORTANT VOTES? SHE DIDN'T FORCE ANYONE TO VOTE FOR HER.

I JUST WONDER WHAT OBAMA WOULD BE SAYING IF IT WAS REVERSED? I'LL BET HE WOULD WHINE!!!

LET FLORIDA COUNT THIS TIME.

LET'S GET HILLARY ELECTED
SHE HAS THE RIGHT EXPERIANCE FOR CHANGE

HILLORY -2008

HILLARY FOR CHANGE!!! AR. (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:46 PM)

Dems screwed up once again. Hillary is stronger on the three most important swing states...FL, Ohio, Pennsylvania. McCain will be in the white house in 2009.

Alex, San Francisco, CA (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:47 PM)

I think the below MSNBC headline say's it all when it comes to McCain the the Neo Republican Party.
"Born-again virgins claim to rewrite the past"

TEC-Spring-TX. (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:48 PM)

Kevin, fl (and all the rest of you HRC people)

The media got behind Obama because THE AMERICAN PEOPLE GOT BEHIND OBAMA. Where were you whiners a few weeks ago when HRC was the presumptive Dem candidate and was getting positive press?? Get over yourselves for godsakes

christian (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:51 PM)

You cannot judge anything by FL, I am a resident, bornin FL, and I am ashamed to have to say I'm from FL. Fl seems to be full of Republicans who should be democrats (they are so liberal) poll the true republicans and you will see McCain looses big time. As for the governor - what a joke! If McCain's helpers Guilini & Romeny had not been here we would see the real winner - Mike Huckabee. You want a republican that can beat Obama or Clinton - then you need Mike Huckabee. Thousands and more republicans haved vowed to NOT vote for McCain if he should be the nominee. The only ones that want McCain is the money hog lobbyist and washington's insiders, the media & democrat/independents that know Obama or Clinton will kill him in the General Election.
All this story is - is more push to push McCain out there cause they know he will not survive.

Tired ofthe System, North Florida (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:55 PM)

If by some crule fate Hillary is not the nominee I will not vote for him. I will not vote for McCain, but I will write in Hillary. I know that would be throwing my vote away, but Hillary is the only one I can vote for and feel I have done the right thing. Please voters look at the past, your so called changers with no experience. Take this opportunity to help everyone and vote for Hillary.

L, TN (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:56 PM)

Allen A., let's have a new primary for the Democrats then. Oh wait, Obama alienated the thousands of retired Jews with his limp wristed "denouncing" of Louis Farrakhan. But the expatriate Cuban community will support Obama...oh wait, he alientated them when he announced that he would meet Raoul Castro. No way Obama wins in Florida. So...I guess you'd rather deny Floridians their franchise like the Bushes and the Supreme Court did in 2000.

That's "change" you can believe in.

Shtuey (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:59 PM)

This poll numbers in Florida showing McCain besting Obama and Clinton are premature and meaningless. So also are the ones showing Obama as the best Democratic Candidate to beat McCain in a match-up in November. A week in an election is huge not to mention nine months away. I still think that Clinton will be a better candidate againt McCain than Obama not withstanding his rhetorics that he will make the best argument against McCain for voting for the war in the first place. But the question will be rephrased then as who is the best person to manage the war NOW that we are already there to a successful conclusion. Democrats are like a football team that recovers the ball on the twenty yard line and with the way they are running their offence (with Obama as the quarterback), they will fumble the ball back to the opposition (republiCONs) who will most likely score a touchdown (with McCain) untouched. Democrats know how to lose an election. The best way to do so is to nominate Obama as our candidates. Democrats need to use their heads not their hearts when selecting a candidate. Hillary is a stronger candidate and the RepubliCONs know that.
Concerned Democrat in NY

Francis Wilson, Brooklyn, NY (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:59 PM)

Every voters vote should count. Just because a few people decided to move up the primary against DNC rules doesn't mean that a population that large shouldn't be heard. Obama has gotten 1 million supporters for his campaign whom I'm sure would be mad as hell if their votes weren't being heard but Florida had MILLIONS (that's a multiple of the 1 million) who went to vote in the primaries and deserve to have a say. Neither candidate campaigned but Obama did run advertisments there so if anyone had the advantage it should have been him. It's funny Obama's supporter say a win is a win except when it comes to Hillary winning. Just like spoiled brats.

a of Illinois (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:07 PM)

Ha Ha Ha Ha....McCain leads in Florida! Of course he does....have you been out to eat lately down here? Everyone is his age!! Oh...and let's not forget -- Florida is a Red State. My Mom and I still fly the Blue Flag down here, but except for Broward and Palm Beach Counties, we are vastly outnumbered.

Barbara C., Pompano Beach, FL (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:09 PM)

If Clinton who won Super Tuesday wins Ohio and Texas Tuesday, Obama will have lost, California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Texas and Ohio, It will be sickening to see the media SPIN in favor of OBAMA.

Guess what, the media is composed of upper class men and women - surprise!!!!! Who does the media support?

Hillary has a big battle because the media hates her and no matter what she does they spin against her.

The media should be unemotional and merely report the facts and the news. Not spin everything to their emotional needs. Its sickening.

Hello Texas and Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, we are depending on you to tell the media where to stick it. Please vote for the most experienced, well qualified candidate. Obama has no record of bringing people together. Hillary actually worked with Republicans in the Senate and has demonstrated non-partisanship. With Obama it is unproven rhetoric.
He has no foreign policy experience.

Did you see how he through out at the last debate how he is on the foreign policy committee - to through out experience. Then when Hillary said but you never did anything about Afganistan etc. he replied well I have been on the campaign trail since I got on that committee. How come the media does not point that out? Never mentioned.

He doesn't have foreign policy experience. He wants to meet with a brutal dictator Raul Castro. Can you imagine Obama meeting with Apartheid in South Africa or Hitler? Of Course Not. He is ignorant on foreign policy.

The media has not pointed out all of Obama's flipp flopps (like what he said about Palestine and what he is saying now) (what he said about NAFTA but what he is saying now) but when the general election comes he is going to be in a lot of trouble because the media hand holding will be over.

Not to mention that our democratic party is divided and fractured.

Its laughable to watch the media debate if it has been prejudiced and unfair to Hillary. The guilty people debate about their own guilt. What a joke.

If the people of Ohio and Texas and Vermont and Rhode Island do not vote Hillary in, I will be so depressed. That is not good for the democratic party, I assure you.

RC Ocala FL (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:10 PM)

Yet another toss-up state in favor of McCain!
McCain in '08!
Yes you can-NOT have my money or dishonor my brothers in arms!

Kyd70,SC (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:10 PM)

I completely agree! Let Obama campaign there for a week or even 2 days! And lets see the results then! Im willing to bet he will be beating Sen. McCain by 50-40%. Oh and no matter how much certain people moan and groan Obama will be our next president. And if you dont believe me look at the national polls!

Brennan Leggett, Amarillo Texas (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:12 PM)

Errr, Florida has got Republican in the last 2 general elections. Why is this poll a surprise? Too many conservative old people.

Michael D. Hafer (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:13 PM)

I will neither vote for McCain or Obama. I will write in my candidate. My prediction is that McCain will carry Ohio and Florida and the Democrats can't win without one of these.
The argument about who wins more states is irrelevant. The Republicans usually wins more states and the Democrats wins enough big states to get the electoral college votes.

After Ralph Nader siphons off about 20,000 votes in FL it will be over.

Pauline, FL (Sent Thursday, February 28, 2008 2:13 PM)

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