First thoughts: It's close
Posted: Monday, March 03, 2008 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** It’s close in Ohio and Texas: The Clinton-Obama race has been exciting and fascinating, and according to two new polls released yesterday, it looks like excitement will continue into tomorrow’s pivotal contests. An MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon survey has Obama up by one point in Texas, 46%-45%, and a Cleveland Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon poll has Clinton leading by four points in Ohio, 47%-43%. Tuesday is going to be a fun night, folks… Nobody likes to be in a state that they think they might lose, so it is telling that Clinton is spending election night in Columbus, while Obama will be in San Antonio. Inside the polls, the subgroup breakdown is pretty predictable: Obama leads among men, those under 50, African Americans, and independents and Republicans; Clinton, meanwhile, leads among women, those over 50, whites, Hispanics, and Democrats.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on just how close the Democratic races in Ohio and Texas really are and what the outcomes could really mean.
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Iraq returns to the trail? Also in those polls, the economy ranked as the most important issue in both Ohio and Texas -- followed by health care and then Iraq. But is that about to change? With its “3:00 am” ad, Clinton's camp successfully turned the final days of this campaign from NAFTA and domestic issues to national security. The question is whether this will turn out to be a good strategy. Sure, the Clinton folks are controlling the final hours of the message, but Obama's camp seems just as charged up about talking about Iraq.
*** Oh, Canada: In what feels like a Perry Mason moment, the Obama campaign is going to have a hard time somehow claiming their chief domestic policy adviser was meeting with the Canadians as a University of Chicago professor and not as an Obama emissary. The only thing the Obama campaign can be happy about is that this memo of the meeting leaked today and not three days ago when the Clinton campaign could have spent days harping on this. This really does hit the Obama campaign on credibility when it comes to the press corps and may hurt them on another story down the road. The press corps gave the Obama camp the benefit of the doubt on this story; it won't next time. Of course, we have another question: Why is the conservative Canadian government leaking this memo and getting involved in a Democratic primary race?
*** Reputation saving? In what almost reads like a campaign obit, the Los Angeles Times attempts to delve into just how the Clinton campaign found itself in this position. The most remarkable part of the story -- chief strategist's Mark Penn's attempt to basically make sure he has almost no allies left inside the campaign. "Penn said in an e-mail over the weekend that he had 'no direct authority in the campaign,' describing himself as merely 'an outside message advisor with no campaign staff reporting to me.'" More Penn: "I have had no say or involvement in four key areas -- the financial budget and resource allocation, political or organizational sides. Those were the responsibility of Patti Solis Doyle, Harold Ickes and Mike Henry, and they met separately on all matters relating to those areas." So in case it wasn't clear, Penn wants to make sure the world knows he had nothing to do with the campaign outside a few message ideas. This goes to some of the chief criticism of Penn we've heard is that he won't take a leadership role; he won't take responsibility. There are a lot of folks on the campaign that would want to "report" to him, but he did everything he could to shield himself from responsibility as this CYA response to the L.A. Times exemplifies. If Clinton wins Ohio and Texas tomorrow, just how much will Penn be trusted by the rest of the Clinton brain trust?
*** Richardson hearts Obama? Still sporting his post-election beard, Richardson stated on CBS yesterday that, "Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday should be the nominee." Well, even if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas decisively tomorrow, Obama will have the most delegates after Tuesday. Is a Richardson endorsement of Obama coming soon? Say Wednesday…? If either candidate nets more than 10 delegates in tomorrow's contest, that would be considered a major upset. The most likely result is a five-delegate swing in one direction or the other.
*** “As far as I know”? Speaking of CBS, we imagine a qualifier Clinton gave on 60 Minutes last night is going to generate plenty of discussion today. In response to a bizarre question by Steve Kroft -- “You don’t believe that Sen. Obama is a Muslim,” following a discussion about that photo of Obama in Somali garb -- Clinton gave a bizarre answer: “Of course not. I mean, that, you know, there is no basis for that. I take him on the basis of what he says. And, you know, there isn't any reason to doubt that.” Kroft followed: “You said you'd take Senator Obama at his word that he's not…a Muslim. You don't believe that he's…” Clinton interjected: “No. No, there is nothing to base that on. As far as I know.” As far as she knows? For a lawyer who has demanded precise language (example: the Farrakhan discussion at last week’s debate), Clinton’s dangling qualifier was a very odd statement. No doubt if she had that question to do over again, she would have said things clearer because this is how conspiracy theories start.
*** Body language: One thing about Clinton is that she seems re-fired up again -- for some reason, there does seem to be a lot more life left in the Clinton campaign than there seemed a week ago. “Things are breaking our way,” communications Howard Wolfson just said on Morning Joe. Is that wishful thinking? Or is there something here? Of course, is it right to say that contests -- in which Clinton led by some 20 points a while back, but are now essentially deadlocked -- are breaking the Clinton camp’s way? Or are they holding on for dear life? If anything, the one thing the Clinton campaign has succeeded at is moving the burden of expectations on Obama. A month ago, he trailed in three of the four March 4 states by double-digits, now, if he loses three of the four by a combined total of, say, six points, it will be considered devastating for Obama and not Clinton. That's the price Obama's paying for his financial lead and for winning 11 contests in a row. Of course, even Obama has remarked that the challenger needs to knock out the champ and not win on points…
*** On the trail: Clinton stumps in Toledo, OH before heading to Texas, where she stumps in Beaumont and then Austin; Huckabee travels across the Lone Star State, hitting Dallas, Abilene, Midland, San Antonio, and Houston; McCain begins his day in Phoenix, AZ before jetting to Texas; and Obama campaigns in San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston. Also, Bill Clinton spends his day in South Texas and El Paso.
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 246 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 323 days
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