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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Spin wars

Posted: Monday, March 03, 2008 2:33 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
In conference calls with reporters this morning, the Clinton and Obama campaigns sought to frame Wednesday's story lines.

The Clinton camp said it was confident of success in tomorrow's pivotal contests in Ohio and Texas. "I think it will be very clear Wednesday morning which campaign had the better day and which campaign had the worst of it," declared communications director Howard Wolfson. "I think there will be no question that we will be the successful campaign on Tuesday."

Wolfson added that with the advantages Obama has going into tomorrow -- in TV ad spending and momentum from previous contests -- that Obama losing would suggest a "serious case of buyer's remorse" among Democratic voters. (That said, Clinton had substantial leads in Ohio and Texas as of the middle of February.)

In the Q&A, a reporter asked Wolfson what happens if Clinton doesn't win both Ohio and Texas. He replied, "We are very optimistic about our chances of success" in those two states. "If the outcome is otherwise, we can discuss it then."

What about Obama's large lead in pledged delegates and whether Clinton can make that up? "We believe this race will continue, and we will be the nominee... There are a lot of states yet to weigh in here." He added, "We wake up on Wednesday; Clinton wins Ohio and Texas; we have a whole new ball game here."

Regarding the Rhode Island and Vermont races -- which also occur tomorrow -- Wolfson said: "I think we are going to do better in Rhode Island than Vermont."

The Obama campaign, for their part, re-emphasized that this should be about delegates not “any kind of creative spin” by the Clinton campaign. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe reminded reporters that that was actually a Clinton campaign line.

If Obama can “maintain or even build” on his pledged delegate lead, that “would be a win for us," Plouffe contended. He went further, calling March 4th “the last big window of opportunity for them to erase a serious delegate deficit.”

Plouffe added, “They were sitting on enormous leads two weeks ago in Ohio and Texas.... We’ve made huge strides in these states." More: "They like to present alternative, underhanded paths to the nominations…. They need to demonstrate how they are going to state by state to retake the delegate lead. The candidate who wins the pledged delegates at the end of this, will be the nominee. There’s the cold, hard reality of the math. They suggested a couple of weeks ago that they were going to erase the delegate lead” as a result of March 4.

“They keep trying to move the goal posts," Plouffe said, "but at some point you run out of field."

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Obama has caught up to Hillary in EVERY state thus far. He is doing the same thing in Ohio and Texas. Although, Ohio seems like it will eventually swing to Hillary, it is hard to imagine that Hillary will get a blowout win in either of these 2 states. I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.
It was my understanding the goal post is 2025 delegates...
Texas Primary Prediction Time!

Who do you predict will win the Texas Democratic Presidential Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1793

.


Ohio Primary Prediction Time!

Who do you predict will win the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1794

.


Please read Hillary:Bad for America sayitlouder.wordpress.com and remember whitewater, The Impeachment, Monica Lewinsky, Jennifer Flowers, and Paula Jones all in which embarassed America. Wake Up People! America wants to write a new chapter but not with Hillary and Bill. Vote Barack Obama 2008!
Obama's got to pull out wins tomorrow or he's not going to take it to the finish! Get out there with everything possible and then some! It's gotta happen now!
If Clinton is really expecting to win, she needs to be honest about what she is aiming for because if she doesn't come out and say that it is over if I don't get "X" amount from Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, then it will be impossible for me to win.

I think that there needs to be a clear and definitive point that Clinton says that she isn't going to stay in after not getting these wins.  Realisticly, if Clinton doesn't make big wins tomorrow, she is toast.  It might be mathematically possible, but it is really unlikely.  
These posts are interesting but what amazes me is that self-described professional journalists copy/paste what Wolfson says into mainstream articles as if it's simply the way things are.  In an Associated Press story this morning, we see this same garbage about "buyers remorse."

Why don't journalists have any pride?  Or have they been browbeaten too much by the same Wolfson/Penn attack squad that they're scared to call BS...BS when they see it.

Senator Clinton had 20 point leads in Ohio and Texas as late as 3 weeks ago.  If she squeaks out 3 point wins in both states, how is that anything other than a massive refutation of HER?
Sounds to me that the Obama camp is afraid they are going to loose the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas.  I'm an Obama supporter, but if they (Obama camp) loose in both states then the narrative of the campaign will change dramatically. Clinto will emaerge as the canidate with the momentum.
As usual, you get spin from the Clinton camp, and facts from Obama's.  

It's absolutely true that Clinton has to win by more than a few percentage points, or she's done.  That's what happens when 35 state contests have finished, and Hillary's only won 11 of them.  She's won less than 33% of the time, and wants to act like squeeking by Obama in two states Obama's been down in 20% is some major feat.

Know what's amazing?  Clinton has the gall to declare the press biased, but given the current situation, if Obama had only won 11 out of 35 state contests, this would have been over a long time ago.
United we stand, divided we fall... oh well... so much for the Clinton's uniting for anyone but themselves. Not Gore, not Kerry and not Obama...
If Hillary loses Ohio OR Texas, the Super Delegates will move to Barack Obama

If Hillary loses Texas, the party will end this farce

The Clinton camp is getting more and more desperate

They're getting UGLY
And damn the consequences

Bill Richardson said that he candidate having the most PLEDGED (primary and Caucus) delegates after the Texas-Ohio primaries will get the nomination

We all know who will have the most PLEDGED delegates after tommorrow........ BARACK OBAMA

Barack Obama is inevitable

Barack Obama will be your next President

DEAL WITH IT
Nobdy will 'baby talk' you out of your disappointment
It was never Hillary's nomination
Nobody owes Hillary ANYTHING

Barack Obama will be your next President

Sorry, Hillary. maybe you can try to get re-elected to the Senate
(or go to work for Noaman Hsu)

Barack just HAS TO WIN Texas !!
If he does.... GAME OVER !!
A lead of a hundred is insurmountable ALL of us who are behind whatever your behind in your mortgage your bills your work just throw in the towel its over why even bother to continue its hopeless.FUNNY OBAMMA IS SELLING HOPELESSNESS.
Questions on that memo?

Bill Clinton and Blonde Canadian woman.

"New York Daily News columnist Ben Widdicombe told us the woman, Belinda Stronach, is a billionaire member of Canada's Conservative Party, and she's very possibly a future candidate for prime minister of Canada.

"She's blonde, she's ambitious and she's in politics, but she's not Bill Clinton's wife," Widdicombe said. "It's Belinda Stronach, his friend from Canada who's been visiting Bill in New York this week."

That's right move the goal posts farther and farther. But, hopefully after tomorrow the truth shall set us all free.  Do these polls reflect the new younger voters?  I don't think so, only HISTORICAL voters. The younger vote will most likely make the difference to her chagrin.
You've got to love the Republicans on MSNBC Carlson and Joe S. openly route for Clinton. They WANT to run against her...
THIS BALLGAME IS GOING ALL THE WAY TO THE "WORLD SERIES". AND I'AM PUTTING MY MONEY ON THE LONG SHOT, COME FROM BEHIND KID "HILLARY". COME TO THE TOWN HALL MEETING TONIGHT AT, hillaryclinton.com. 6:30 p.m. c.s.t or 7:30 p.m. e.s.t.
QUESTION:  Why is Clinton suddenly so confident (or is it a feign)?  Are there internal polls that show her leading in TX?  Or are they BSing?  Please tell ! ! ! !
Hillary and her doublespeak and hypocrisy has just become annoying.  Luckily, Texas and its proportional delegates and caucus are about to give her a thumping.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/03/03/why-you-should-vote-in-the-texas-caucus/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/is-hillary-getting-a-free-pass/
How come the news agencies are so slow at getting info. Canada issued an apology to Obama and it seems the blogs have them before the big news companies. What gives? Do keep driving these stories for ratings? You are quick for the negative but not the positive or corrections.
Camp Clinton will continue to draw blood all the way to the convention in which the party will elect Obama. She will not drop out no matter what b/c of superdelegates but she fails to realize her negative attacks are weakening her support amoung them. Look at the net gains/losses for both candidates. Super Tuesday will be a draw...or a slight win for Obama in delegates but nothing will be decided and the goal posts move AGAIN. North Carolina will become the "decisive" state.
My Prediction:
While the polling has been criticized as not indicative this season--primary case being NH, since then what I've seen is Obama surging past Clinton in the end--exceeding his expected margin of victory in VA, MD & WI by huge margins. I think his better orgainization, more motivated supporters--and the hidden cell phone voters (i.e. the non polled people) make him stronger than polls show.
I think this trend continues and he wins comfortably in TX, big in VT and scrapes by narrrowly in OH & RI.
Which Hillary will show up?  Which Bill Clinton will show up?

I like the personal Hillary Clinton, not the politcal Hillary Clinton that has become a spin machine.

 I voted for Obama.

Its the job of her advisors to win and spin effectively. Unfortunately either her campaign staff or she herself have lost the mantle of doing what is right, and they resort to blatant transparent spin.

Barack does actually have better judgment, as we see on the campaign trail everyday.

Let's do what is right for our country and our children's future.



Should Obama drop out if he doesn't win TX and OH?

After all the money he has spent and still can't win, shouldn't that tell him something.

Clinton 08
Should Obama drop out if he doesn't win TX and OH?

After all the money he has spent and still can't win, shouldn't that tell him something.

Clinton 08
The bottom line is that Obama leads by 157 or so pledged delegates and after tomorrow, he will still lead by 150-179. There are roughly only 611 pledged delagates available after tomorrow. Clinton would have to win the remaining contests 62%-38% just to breakeven or move up by 1-2 delagets. Should you look at the contests, almost all of them favor Obama. Clinton needs to win both Texas and Ohio by this 62%- 38% margin or she needs to exit with some sort of dignity, less she be seen as the Mike Huckabee of the Democratic party.
Good for Plouffe.  According to Chuck Todd, Clinton needs to win ALL THE REST of the primaries/caucuses by 58% just to catch up with Obama, and 65% of the states she's supposed to win, if Obama wins the states he's supposed to win.  Spin that, Wolfson.
Harold Wolfson (and Mark Penn and Hillary Clinton) is all that is wrong with the Clinton campaign.  This voter has had enough.  My vote will go to Obama in the primary and in the general election.
I really think with the press writing off Hillary in the last couple weeks, people seriously thought about Obama as president (because let's face it, the Democratic nominee will win in November), and these people had second thoughts about Obama, or "Buyer's Remorse"
If given the chance Hillary would keeping on demanding primaries in all states until the voters become tired and vote for her. Vote Obama on march 4th and get rid of this menace.
As a democrat, I hate the tone of the past few weeks. We should campaign without tearing each other apart. It just hands fire to the GOP for the general election. If Obama wins one of the big two tomorrow, Clinton needs to go away quietly for the sake of the party. If she wins both, of course she is back but I hope we are not in for another 6 weeks of negative campaigning until Pennsylvania.
As a democrat, I hate the tone of the past few weeks. We should campaign without tearing each other apart. It just hands fire to the GOP for the general election. If Obama wins one of the big two tomorrow, Clinton needs to go away quietly for the sake of the party. If she wins both, of course she is back but I hope we are not in for another 6 weeks of negative campaigning until Pennsylvania.
Clinton must accept basic concepts:
1.  The superdelegates should not and will not overturn the decision of the pledged delegates.
2.  Only extraordinarily unlikely outcomes in the remaining contests will result in a pledged delgate lead for Clinton.
3.  Almost 40% of the remaining pledged delegates will be decided Tuesday.  Unless those results significantly reduce the 160 pledged delegate lead for Obama, a Clinton victory is all but impossible.  
4.  To continue to attack the presumptive nominee for the seven weeks leading up to Pennsylvania would be unacceptably damaging to the party.  If Clinton wants to remain in the race at that point, she should drop all negative references to Obama.  
"They keep trying to move the goal posts," Plouffe said, "but at some point you run out of field."
--By definition, aren't goal posts at the end of the field to begin with?  I'm just saying ...
Wolfson added that with the advantages Obama has going into tomorrow -- in TV ad spending and momentum from previous contests -- that Obama losing would suggest a "serious case of buyer's remorse" among Democratic voters. (That said, Clinton had substantial leads in Ohio and Texas as of the middle of February.)
--------------------------------------

Exactly...Senator Clinton had big leads in Ohio and Texas and Senator Obama has shrunk those leads.  Even if the Clinton campaign comes out of Ohio and Texas with wins will it be enough to eat into the lead nationally that the Obama campaign currently holds?

Senator Obama had advantages, alright.  It's called running an effective campaign.  It's called not having to scramble after Super Tuesday because your candidate didn't come out the clear front runner like you expected.

Is it an advantage?  You better believe it!

Who's ready for Day Two?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-seitzman/the-clinton-crystal-ball_b_89587.html
If Hillary somehow steals and cry her way into the white house, she will never beat mcCain. Hillary's terrible attacks against a fellow democratic will never get her the votes she needs to win the general election.

We will remember the awful attacks on Obama's character, the attacks on his supporters and the attacks on the states that she did not win.

WE WILL REMEMBER IN NOVEMBER AND STAY HOME!!!!!!!

Obama "08"
OBAMA IS THE BIGGEST JOKE.....
"HOPE" IS A SLOGAN......
"CHANGE" IS A TERM WITHOUT SPECIFICATION.....
DEMOCRATS WILL NEVER LEARN........
THEY NOMINATE THE WRONG INDIVIDUALS......EVERYTIME.
I’m going to vote for Clinton tomorrow and here’s why:

Clinton has endured 15 years of attack by the radical right.  Millions have been spent in an attempt to gather credible evidence to support some (any) charge and yet NEVER has she been charged.  The smears she has endured simply because she is a proud Democrat and her willingness to stay in the game in spite of them tell me that this woman has great character, tenacity and strength.

The argument about Hillary not making the right decision and voting in favor of the Iraq Resolution is absurd.

George Bush LIED to the American people and intentionally provided false information to support the allegation that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.   It is not improper for the Senate and the populace to support our President in a time of crisis.  77 Senators…Biden, Dodd, Kerry, Edwards, Clinton and others acted because they took our President at his word.  It is not a mistake to take the president at his word, it is a mistake for the President to betray the trust of the American people.

And what is the alternative?  In a time when we hear so much about working in a bi-partisan effort, how could one achieve this goal when we proceed with the assumption that no president can be trusted?  

Clinton, and I would wager, most of the Democrats that voted in favor of the resolution would have voted against the resolution had they been given the truth, but again, they were not.

And lastly, I am disappointed by the much discussed notion that the Clintons have employed racially divisive tactics when in fact there is no evidence to support the claim.  I’ve seen the sound bites and I’ve seen the entire transcripts of the reported events and nowhere is there anything that supports the allegation.  I am angered because the charge of racism is an ugly charge saved for the very lowest of human beings.  Barach betrayed the spirit of the party and the spirit of his own campaign when he did not stand up in support of a fellow Democrat that has done so much to advance the just cause of civil rights in this country.  Standing by in silence when good people are maligned is shameful.

Clinton has served her state well, is respected by both Republican and Democrat Senators, has first hand knowledge of the inner workings (and dysfunctions) of government, is well schooled in the process of government and is ready to take charge and lead.

I understand an appreciate the use of spin and I expect each camp will do what they can to put the best face on any situation.  But when every thing is said I think there is plenty of evidence that we have two very, very good candidates for president but we have to chose one.  

I'm Backing Clinton and urge all people of good will to do the same.
Looks like MSNBC remains an ally to Obama in the "spin wars" This article questions the validity of Hilary staying in the race, and the second one is purely bashing Hillary for "being negaitve" and a "fighter" (both sides are just as negative)
The third article is basically Obama's add in Texas, run as if it was a news article or commentary.
Is MSNBC on the Obama payroll?
Its funny how true that Saturday Night Live skit really was.

Obamaphiles and Clinton bashing bloggers are all welcome here!
Regarding NAFTA. Can someone please tell me what the Canadian Government's position is on the Obama meeting. I understand that they are agreeing with his version of events. If America falls for this type of lies yet again, they will deserve to have Iran takeover the Middle East.When will this type of politics stop? McCain, you and Rush Limbaugh have something, I just KNOW it!
Kitty, New York
Why is it the story about Hillary Clinton refusing to return $170,000 in campaign contributions from individuals at International Profit Associations a bigger story on your news? According to The Huffington Post, which Hillary must respect because she posts there, and according to federal campaign records, the CEO of IPA is a disbarred lawyer with a criminal record and is accused of widespread sexual harassment, including "sexual assaults," "degrading anti-female language," and "obscene suggestions."

Why isn't this as prominent as Mr. Obama's supposed link to Chicago man who hasn't even been tried yet?

Isn't Hillary's accusation in a televised speech in Texas that Barack is somehow tainted a little of the pot calling the kettle black?

"...at some point you run out of field."

Given that the Clinton camp is now trying to sell that Obama has to win all four by substantial margins to prove no buyer's remorse, I'd say the goalposts are already off the field, out of the stadium, across the parking lot and now on the interstate off-ramp.

Clinton needs to net 60-70 delegates to even have a shot at getting back in this race.
  I noticed that when Hillary supposedly answered the "red" phone, she in fact answered a white phone.  Let's see:  She can't vote correctly on the deadly, costly, Iraq War; then, in a supposed national emergency, she can't answer the correct phone.  Seems to me her heralded 35 years experience has been wasted. If you don't learn from experience, then what good is it?
Obama is +160 in voted delegates.

Unless he loses the TX CAUCUSES big there is simply no way in which he will go to the convention with a smaller advantage than +150.

Every analyst agrees.

The Super Delegates are not in any way bound to vote  except as they please.  To argue that the Super Delegate is to vote per the vote of his or her district is to imply that the position of Super Delegate is somehow a representative office which it is not.
Brilliant, the same old Obama campaign spin.  Obama's camp expects the Clinton camp to quit just because she's lost the last 11 contests (22 of 35), loses her lead in the polls the minute either candidate starts campaigning in any state, has serious questions regarding how her campaign was run - including her finances (132 mil; are you kidding me), has no message as to why voters should choose her over her opponent other than 'she is not her opponent,' and can't appeal to or retain superdelegate support.
Ohio LOVES Hillary, I live in Ohio and if you can't win here you can't win the Presidency. Hillary has already proven she can win big in the big states that are the must wins for the Dems in November. Hillary should remain in this race through the convention no matter what happens tommorrow. Obama will prove to be unelectable and we don't want to be stuck with that empty suit.

I TRUST Hillary implicity with our national security as well as our domestic policies. Hillary is a known, proven leader, whose qualifications are ummatched.

I do not trust Obama. His personal relationships call into question his judgment and character.

For example, REZKO. His 17 year friend in Chicago is starting trial today in Chicago on federal criminal charges. Troublesome.

For example, PASTOR WRIGHT. This is the man Obama calls his "mentor".  Pastor Wright of Chicago is an avowed anti-semitic, anti-white, pro-Louis Farakaan supporter of black supremecy. Very, very, very, troublesome. Why does Obama call this man his "mentor". YIKES!!

For example, his relationship with Bill Ayers, an admitted participant in the radical terrorist bombings of New York, the Pentagon and other American targets who would likely be serving a life prison sentence along with his wife Bernadine Dorhn (they had to live underground for over 20 years) if the FBI had not bungled their cases. To this day, Ayers shows no remorse for his terrorism, only saying "he wishes they had done more". Obama has accepted campaign contributions from Bill Ayers and they used to hang out together in Hyde Park, Chicago when they worked together in radical community groups in Chicago. YIKES!

Why does Obama hang with such an unsavory crowd? WHO IS BARACK OBAMA?

What would Obama have done last night when faced with bombing Al-Queda targets on the Somali-Kenya border considering his family ties to Kenya, Africa?

Obama is too risky for the Dems to nominate.

Obama is unelectable.

I refer you to Ambassador Joseph Wilson's eloquent and intelligent editorial printed in the Huffington Post today. Read and VOTE SMART, VOTE FOR HILLARY!

It is sad tht these tactics will only make the Democratic Party look like a aprty of division. Hillary has utilized the most divisive, Karl Rove-ian tactics. Instead of lookingfor flaws in Obama, she goes after him with flagrant lies (check out www.factcheck.org). Obama has also twisted a few facts, but it is so easy to catch Hillary lying outright.
People who continue to insist without giving reasons that Hillary is the best candidate are either damn gullible or simply want a repeat of Bush's presidency or want a lying head of state. Or perhaps her supporters want to divide America into many nations.
Itsyourvoice, I guess you will be staying home on election day. My guess is that you are a woman hating man. Typical Obama supporter.
All you misinformed Obama voters...do your research:
Obama's Senate Voting Record: Extemely Poor Compared to his Senate Peers.
Beware of his silver tongue...behind closed doors is the voice of a pretender...
Questions linger over developer's Obama deal w/Rezko
Fallout from his relationship with politically connected Rezko dogs him still and will be his undoing.
I have been a Barack Obama supporter from the beginning in Iowa.  I stated I would not vote for Hillary Clinton when Bill Clinton got nasty in South Carolina.  Hillary revived herself in the last few weeks with her message and if she were the nominee I would vote for her in November.  Now she is showing this win at all costs side that again has lost my vote even if she is the nominee.  I'm sorry she has turned on her own party to continue a fight that only weakens the Democratic nominee.  I cannot in good conscience vote for this woman of so little character.


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