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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for Texas

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 8:56 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

The Dallas Morning News: “Their race stubbornly tight, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama blitzed Texas on Monday in a final surge of campaigning for Tuesday's primary. And while some have seen today's contests in Texas and Ohio as potentially decisive in their historic battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton raised the notion that it could go on for months more and ultimately be decided in a fight at the party's summer convention.”

The Houston Chronicle reports, “The monthlong political fight in Texas and Ohio concludes in today's primaries, but the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama signaled Monday that neither expects a knockout punch for the Democratic presidential nomination. The expectations were lowered because the polls in Texas and Ohio showed the race was too close to call.”

For the journalists following Obama, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan muses, last night's rally in Houston could have been swapped for any other late night rally he has held between his win in South Carolina and now. Just another enthusiastic crowd, just another soaring speech. Except, Monday night marked the second time that Obama has appeared on the verge of winning the Democratic nomination, and his speech to the crowd of 6,000 people had an uncanny resemblance to the speech he gave to another packed room, another cheering crowd in Concord, NH the night before the primary.
 
Like he did then, Obama told the crowd that it was important to make sure that the movement he's helped generate was not "just a flash in the pan" but rather a sustainable wave that could lift his candidacy and carry him to the White House. "So this has been your campaign. That's why so many people didn't see us coming… Change happens because America speaks in one voice and decides that it's time for change.” He later added, "Tomorrow in Texas, and Ohio and Rhode Island and Vermont, we have the chance to show America that this is not just a flash in the pan. We are in this for the long haul. 
 
But Obama has also learned the lesson of losing in this primary, and he warned the crowd of the possibility of failure as well. "So here we are with the possibility of winning the nomination," he said. "But here's the thing that people have to understand. It's that change is not easy. You know sometimes I think during the course of a campaign, particularly one that has been successful, there's a tendency for feeling kinda like 'huh.' That things are always going to go the way they should." And suggesting that if tomorrow does not hand Obama, he told the crowd that they will persevere anyway. "What makes this powerful is not that things are not always going to go easy, rather that we are going to go forward even when it’s hard."

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Barack Obama and his staff have absolutely no reason to talk to Canadians about NAFTA at this time. Not to ease their concerns or for any other reason. It takes some funny math to add up to the story circulating against him at this time. So figure.

Gregory Peek, Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:05 AM)

After today's voting and the difference in delegates between Hillary and Obama remain the same as when coming into the March 4 primaires (with Obama leading by 150+), and Hillary decides to stay in the race, she will be responsible for tearing the Dem party apart and could open the door for McCain to take the general election. When the polls in today's primaries close and the totals are tallied, it is time for Hillary to bow out. Either she can bow out gracefully or the party needs to tell her not to let the door hit her in the rear on the way out.  

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:06 AM)

If Clinton Wins in Ohio or Texas, Most Democrats Want Her to Stay in the Race

Tuesday, March 4, 2008; A08



Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both. About two-thirds of men and liberals indicated that she should give up her bid under those circumstances. And among those closely following the campaign, nearly six in 10 said she should quit the race if she loses both Texas and Ohio, states that her husband, former president Bill Clinton, has called must-wins.

At the general-election level, half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents across the country would like to see Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) as the party's presidential candidate; 43 percent would rather Hillary Clinton be the nominee.

Obama's edge is built on strong support among the types of voters who have lifted him to 11 consecutive wins since Super Tuesday. Eight in 10 African Americans want Obama to be the party's standard-bearer, as do about two-thirds of younger voters and those seeking a candidate offering a new direction and new ideas. Nearly six in 10 men and 45 percent of women support Obama, putting him roughly on par with Clinton among women. White women and older voters preferred Clinton by wide margins.

And in a twist, Obama has the edge among mainline Democrats, who prefer him over Clinton by 10 percentage points. While losing to Clinton among Democrats in most states holding their caucuses or primaries through Feb. 5, Obama has won the party faithful in the four post-Super Tuesday contests that had a network exit poll.

Overall, white Democrats prefer Clinton by a 10-point margin, masking a wide gender gap: By about a 20-point margin, white women are more likely than white men to want Clinton to be the nominee. Whites without college degrees and those with annual family incomes of less than $50,000 back Clinton, while those with more formal education and higher incomes split about evenly between her and Obama.

The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 28 to March 2 among a random national sample, including 629 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.


-- Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta

Former dem, California (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:25 AM)

If Clinton Wins in Ohio or Texas, Most Democrats Want Her to Stay in the Race

Tuesday, March 4, 2008; A08



Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both. About two-thirds of men and liberals indicated that she should give up her bid under those circumstances. And among those closely following the campaign, nearly six in 10 said she should quit the race if she loses both Texas and Ohio, states that her husband, former president Bill Clinton, has called must-wins.

At the general-election level, half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents across the country would like to see Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) as the party's presidential candidate; 43 percent would rather Hillary Clinton be the nominee.

Obama's edge is built on strong support among the types of voters who have lifted him to 11 consecutive wins since Super Tuesday. Eight in 10 African Americans want Obama to be the party's standard-bearer, as do about two-thirds of younger voters and those seeking a candidate offering a new direction and new ideas. Nearly six in 10 men and 45 percent of women support Obama, putting him roughly on par with Clinton among women. White women and older voters preferred Clinton by wide margins.

And in a twist, Obama has the edge among mainline Democrats, who prefer him over Clinton by 10 percentage points. While losing to Clinton among Democrats in most states holding their caucuses or primaries through Feb. 5, Obama has won the party faithful in the four post-Super Tuesday contests that had a network exit poll.

Overall, white Democrats prefer Clinton by a 10-point margin, masking a wide gender gap: By about a 20-point margin, white women are more likely than white men to want Clinton to be the nominee. Whites without college degrees and those with annual family incomes of less than $50,000 back Clinton, while those with more formal education and higher incomes split about evenly between her and Obama.

The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 28 to March 2 among a random national sample, including 629 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.


-- Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta

Former dem, California (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:25 AM)

Hopefully Obama got some hoops in this morning.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:26 AM)

:) .... I have a hunch that Obama knows full well that he is losing these two big states to Hillary - check out real politics website. For the first time in the last few days - Hillary is leading both polls.

Hillary 08!

mag (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:35 AM)

New Hampshire had Edwards and others in the race. The states in place today do not. BIG difference.

Blaine (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:38 AM)

I envy Ashwini who gets to go to all of Obama's campaign's!
And thanks for the great coverage of Obama you have been giving us!

-OBAMA 08-

Veej (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:52 AM)

My fellow Americans,

I have, for too long, endured the divisiveness that continues to erode our country.  For too long, have special interest held sway in our government—this alone is criminal.  And for too long have I watched the price of oil cause inflation in the United States (I believe this is a plot to destabilize our country’s economy by greed oil companies who set record profits each quarter, and others. . .)  For too long, have I watched our valiant men in uniform, sacrificed (some of which were my friends.) As an American, I am tired of seeing my government (who takes 25-30% of my hard earned wages) unable to agree on almost anything.  This has to stop.  Now, I am sure Hillary Clinton would like to bring our broken country back together, but I fear she simply has too much fight in her personality to be anything other than divisive in her politics as we saw in the last debate, and we continue to see in her negative political attacks. Furthermore, I remember the good and the bad times of the previous Clintons, and no matter how many “super delegates are in their pocket,” I do not wish to revisit those times. I have, for too long endured political speeches that promised only more back- biting once the election was won.  However, as I am often reminded, we are all in this together. After all, we are all Americans.  Republicans see things one way, Democrats see it another, Independents like myself are wishing for the two opposing sides to come together because  WE ARE REALLY ALL ON THE  SAME SIDE!—The American Side.  Now I do not want socialism, or anything similar to it.  What I do want is for my government to work and not be dysfunctional. For too long, have we “The People” paid for a government bought by special interest, and for far too long have we sent money to other countries while some Americans are poor, homeless, and helpless.  For too long, has our governments turned their backs on public education, health care, and the working man/woman.  For far too long have I read about our fallen heroes, our soldiers who will never return--home.
As an American, I deserve better from our politicians.

Now, I do not know Obama personally; however, he is the only person who actually has plans of “substance” ready to address these problems.  I say give the man a chance because he seems like our best  “hope” for the future.  Time will tell.

one american (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:58 AM)

WE ARE DEFINITELY IN IT ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.  GO OBAMA ! ! !

Myra,Va (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:07 AM)

If Obama thinks that the way to go forward is to keep going even when its hard, thats a fine idea. The only thing someone needs to tell him is that "come on, I've already answered like 8 questions." does not follow that ideal. Ask Hillary how many questions she had to answer during her 35 years in public life.  The problem we have in this election is that he only had to answer 8 questions. He needs to answer 800,000 before we decide he should be POTUS.

laurie Moultrie, Georgia (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:13 AM)

The media is always looking for negative things on Obama, when it comes to seeking out HRC's dirty laundry there is a short time of it appearing on the news.  When HRC was talking about the slum lord, it was in the media for a while, but when the slum lord was in the picture with her and asked about it she said I don't know who took the picture, (I know she smiled for the camera). When asked to give her IRS info, she said she would give it up, she was asked, by March 4, reply was "not that soon". She's just like a snake in the grass, she will do anything to be in POWER. What is she afraid of. When she put out the red phone ad, at the end why was she holding a white phone. I have never paid attention to politics before (I'm 69 yo).  I'm paying close attention to things this year so I can make up mind who to vote for.

Nora Beecher, Raleigh, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:16 AM)

"Mrs. Clinton raised the notion that it could go on for months more and ultimately be decided in a fight at the party's summer convention.”

That would give the bloodied DEM nominee 3 months to join a General election campaign that was framed and written by and for the GOP. That means the DEMS lose.
Democrats, Independents, Texans, Ohioans, Americans. If Mrs Clinton's "notion" becomes reality, there will be belly slapping and cigar lighting in every smoke filled GOP head shed across this land.
For once we need to do the thing that the opposition does NOT want us to do. It's called winning.

Yes WE MUST!
Obama

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:25 AM)

Well the Rush Mouth has convinced some Republican Texans to vote for Hillary. Must be a good number because they seem to be loud and proud. Not only will that effect the national primary outcome, it will also effect local elections. The shame is that republicans have in effect abandoned the local races at the request of a talk show host that has no local interest in Texas. Rush's only real concern is his ratings and ad revenues. He already knows or has stated that the conservative republican cause was lost when McCain became the likely republican presidential contender. Rush has no horse in this race, so he is playing spoiler. What a shame that Texans have given up their right to think and vote for themselves, so they can walk in goose step with a self proclaimed leader of the true conservative movement. Rush has proven that he is no conservative in the real since and his real secret agenda is to continue to pad his wallet at the expense of the American People. Texans have earned the right to vote and should not abandon that right so carelessly.

TEC-Spring-TX (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:31 AM)

What about the battle for RI...or VT...or Wyoming?  Lest we forget, Wyoming is having cauceses this weekend!  

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 10:52 AM)

Hillary's campaign is the best thing that's happened for the Republicans this election.
She knows perfectly well Obama is a Christian, but says "As far as I know" about it, deliberately fanning the flames of the rumors spread by bigoted right wing conservatives.
As far as the last minute flap over NAFTA, the timing of the information (misinformation) coming out -- just on the eve of the Ohio vote -- is just too suspicious not to expect there was collusion with the conservative Canadian government with either the Republicans or the Clinton campaign. Come on, folks! Don't fall for this stuff.    

Kay in Olympia (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:02 AM)

I would lke to ask the question? Who are the people you as the media are talking to when you take your poll. I voted last week on MSNBC of weather it was time for Hilary to drop-out and I voted YES it is time. At that time when I voted, the precentage was 60-40. 60% of the people wanted Hilary to drop-out in fear of breaking up DEM party. And at this point I feel thats what she is doing.When I looked at the polls this morning it was 67%- 29%. 67% of the people saying that they wanted Hilary to stay in the race. Who are these people? And how diverse are your polls? Enough already we the people are ready to get started with the general election. We are tried of the in the windows by the Clintn camp, I feel that this could really damage the Dem party and what we stand for. It is time that we the people and the Media give Sen. Barack Obama a fair chance.

Monica Mitchell Clarksville TN (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:11 AM)

We are a white middle aged professional couple (Engineer & RN) who serve the public with our hearts and minds. Barack Obama is the president that seems to speak with our voice. Frustratingly our existing government policies have been part of a roadblock to our efforts to help the environment and provide good health care. Barack Obama inspires us with hope and Hillery is too divisive to be effective. John McCain is not going to let go of his pride and seems blind to a way out of the lie base war in Iraq.
Barack's demonstrated inspired intellect, faith in our democracy and commitment to his family are drawing people together in record numbers to participate in this election.  Be part of the change and have the audacity to hope with us! Vote Obama!

Bob and Mary

Robert Schmidt (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:15 AM)

Texas, here is your president
Ohio, here is yuour president
Rhode I, here is your president
America, here is your president:
HILLARY R. CLINTON

how do u like that chicago, il (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:40 AM)

i am a latino, young and professional male, with three masters and a ph.d. and i support HILLARY CLINTON.  

how do u like that chicago, il (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:42 AM)

hey Obama, how funny, your financial advisor, talking to foreing goverment saying that it is just talking what you are doing....  ha ha ha ha ha ha,   it show that what some american is saying about you, is true, you are good giving speechs, nothing else.  no solution, no plan.  that is why i said, you are teh democrat version of BUSH

how do u like that chicago, il (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 11:45 AM)

hey,how do you like that chicago,il, did you have to take spelling to get any of those three masters? well maybe not because you seem to know the BUSH policy!

jreed,beaumont,tx (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:26 PM)

NO YOU WON'T!!!

HILLARY '08!!!!!!!

CJ Herrera (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:31 PM)

It's time Barack Obama got a FAIR chance you say? I'm sorry isn't that all he's had?? He's had the easiest ride ever. If he was a woman he would have never made it this far with his slim record. Winning this nomination is winning..period. Doesn't mean it was done by dirty tricks. If Hillary goes to the convention so be it. So did Obama's friend Ted Kennedy. It's how it's done oh so inexperienced Obama followers. You're getting sleepy, very sleepy....

Elizabeth, Ga (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:35 PM)

Come on, three masters degrees and ph.d and you fell for that one?  Look at the timing......and read the comments by the Canadian govt.  This will all be over soon....Barack can unite our party and our country.  Texas will deliver for Obama!  Viva Obama!  

Ismael, San Antonio, TX (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:38 PM)

Hillary is too far behind in the delegate count to catch up.  She would have to win 60% of all votes in all contests from now on to even tie, due to proportionasl apportionment of delegates.  And we all know that there are states she will not win such as - Vermont, Wyoming, Oregon, Mississippi, North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota.  So, it is impossible for her to win.  Even if she wins Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island today, she will likely get less delegates in Texas and not too many more than Obama in Ohio.  The super delegates, who are politicians after all, will support the decision of a majority of voters, rather then split the party.

By the way, it will be interesting to see how the bad weather in Ohio affects Hillary's elderly supporters.  I bet less of them go to the polls.

Lia (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:38 PM)

Isn't it so very calculated that this so called "Canadian Story" comes out the day before the election?? Hmmmm...  It will not work, no not THIS time!

Disgusted with the same ole politics, CA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:39 PM)

Please give Hillary a position in the white house so that she can get more experience.  Maybe in the next four years you will get some wisdom!!!.    Bill take control and tell your wife to sit down.  HILLARY you give the real women a bad name

Concerned mother of three (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:39 PM)

Everyone hear can read and most can write; lets all promise to check our facts before posting baseless comments.  Let say two additional sources.  It is 2008, we have access to information; there's no reason for anyone to go perpetuate the ignorance.

Besides, I only like to hear ideas from those who are in the know, those that could possibly sway my opinion (isn't that what this place is for or just cheerleading?); I like to hear from those that can hear bad news about their preference and not get all school-yard about it..  

Troy Hussein (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:41 PM)

I say both sides Obama and Clinton suporters need to suck it up. she has every right to stay the race. he dont have enough votes to get him a nomination nor does she ,so it moves to the next level. he can back out just as she could. I really cant see the nation putting either one in the White House. Let the fun contunue.

adrn,illinois (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:59 PM)

to the guy that say he has three masters, what do you have them in, Stupidness? I would be surprised if you had a high school diploma.

helen,mansfield,ohio (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:00 PM)

The Washington Post Fact Checker reports that "The official Canadian report on the Feb. 8 meeting, leaked to the Associated Press over the weekend, presents a much more nuanced account of what took place than the story being retold by the Clinton campaign. It shows that Goolsbee talked about the need for a limited renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement, "in favour of strengthening/clarifying language on labour mobility and environment and trying to establish these as more `core' principles of the agreement." This is consistent with what Obama has been saying about NAFTA on the campaign trail."

The Canadian memo also quotes Goolsbee as saying that some of the protectionist sentiment aired in Ohio had more to do with "political positioning than the clear articulation of policy plans." Goolsbee has denied expressing such sentiments to the Canadians.

It looks like both candidates have made a misstep here, but the Clinton campaign's willingness to fire up the rhetoric is unfortunate and evidence of further negative posturing.

I solidly support Senator Obama.

Sherri, Seattle WA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:02 PM)

Obama?  Oh Bummer!

Bob, Orlando, FL (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:07 PM)

Clinton is more qualified than Obama, but either one will be better than George Bush III, aka John McCain.

Jack, Corpus Christi, Texas (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:18 PM)

Hopefully Obama got some hoops in this morning.
Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:26 AM)

----------------------------------------------
Yes Hillary and Barry played today.
They were "shooting hoops" this AM.
Hill had to bring her own ball b/c it has more experience!

HP Boston (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:21 PM)

Yes Hillary and Barry played today.
They were "shooting hoops" this AM.
Hill had to bring her own ball b/c it has more experience!
HP Boston (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:21 PM)


Hillary need to do what the New England patriots did..

She needs to take her ball and go home........

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:42 PM)

2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
http://www.votenic.com
New Poll Posted Every Tuesday Evening
Thanks for Voting!

votenic (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:43 PM)

This campaign is between the woman's and the black man's. There are various reasons to pick the woman as our commander-in-chief. America is back and we are ready to lead.!!!!

Akber A. Kassam. Blaine, Minnesota. (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 2:22 PM)

Why is it that the Obama people are blaming Hillary for dividing the Democratic Party, after all, she was the one who announced her candidacy, raised money and organized her campaign FIRST.  It was a Obama who came along and divided the party and thinks that everybody is just suppose to jump on the Obama train just because he walked in the room.  The arrogance of the Obama people is sickining!  I hope Ohio and Texas put them in their places. As to MSNBC, why isn't the Canadian story on the front page?  Why wasn't Tim Russert on Today this morning to announce Hillary's surge and that she is now ahead in the polls in Texas and Ohio?  Why did Al Roker announce this morning during his weather report that the weather problems in Ohio might make it difficult for older voters (who tend to support Hillary)to get out and vote?  I have never seen him make that type of comment before.  

Michael (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 3:06 PM)

Watching MSNBC now !!.....why are( and have been for a while now ) they showing the exit polling numbers in Texas WHEN THE POLLS HAVEN'T CLOSED YET ??????????????? Yet not doing so for RI whose polls are also still open?. ..What about the Texan who's home eating dinner or working and hasn't voted yet tonight ....showing one candidate or another being ahead CAN IT'S BEEN PROVEN AFFECT THAT PERSON'S VOTE ( MAY STAY HOME OR CHANGE VOTE ETC......STOP TRYING TO BE THE FIRST TO CALL ELECTIONS....LET THE VOTERS ..................Barbara MeKenna-Brand

Barbara McKenna-Brand (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 8:36 PM)



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