Junior Super Tuesday
Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 8:58 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
Democrats
John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times offers of a primer of what to watch for tonight. “Should Mr. Obama sweep all four contests, her hopes will plainly be extinguished. Should she carry Ohio and Texas — as her husband, former President Bill Clinton, said she must to retain a shot at the nomination — she will no doubt fight on to the next big battle, on April 22 in Pennsylvania, and, perhaps, all the way to the convention in Denver. Trickier to handicap would be a split decision, in which Mrs. Clinton won Ohio, for example, but lost Texas. For people who want to think about possible permutations, keep this one in mind. Because of the way Texas allocates delegates, it is entirely possible that Mrs. Clinton could win the popular vote there but lose to Mr. Obama on delegates.”
The Politico’s Roger Simon: “The stage has been set for a Hillary Clinton comeback on Tuesday. Nobody knows if she has the votes to do it, but the opportunity is ripe. She not only is vigorously attacking Barack Obama but simultaneously portraying herself as a victim. It is a nifty political two-step.” He adds: “Nor do I think, as some do, that Bill Clinton’s statement that she needs to win both Texas and Ohio to gain the nomination was (yet another) grievous tactical error. The Clinton campaign had to serve notice that Tuesday is it. The campaign is facing elimination after 11 Obama victories in a row and with superdelegates swinging his way. Both Clintons had to motivate voters in Texas and Ohio by serving final notice. They had to tell them: Get up off the couch and vote now, or it’s all over.”
NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column, “[W]inning by slight percentages in Texas and Ohio aren’t real wins for Clinton. A ‘win’ would be anything that significantly closes the gap in delegates. Symbolic victories mean nothing at this point, other than encouraging her to plow ahead in this campaign, amassing a greater campaign debt than already exists and delaying her ability to get on with the next phase of her life.”
Democrats don’t necessarily seem to want the Clinton-Obama race to end. From a new Washington Post/ABC poll: “Democrats by more than a 2-1 margin say Hillary Clinton should stay in the presidential race even if she loses either the Texas or Ohio primary today. But if she fails in both, fewer than half say they’d want her to fight on. Many, in that case, have another idea for Clinton: the vice presidency.”
The New York Daily News’ DeFrank about sums it up: “If Hillary Clinton wins Texas and Ohio Tuesday, she's back from the political boneyard. If she loses both, she's finished. And if it's a split decision, anything is possible.”
But, as Reuters notes, “Even a split decision in the two states would leave her with a steep climb to overtake Obama's lead of roughly 150 pledged convention delegates who select the nominee, and increase the pressure on her to quit.”
The cover of the New York Daily News: “Win or it’s adios!” “Hillary faces do-or-die primary battles today in Texas and Ohio.”
