First thoughts: Judgment Day

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:00 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Judgment Day: In what has become the craziest -- yet most entertaining -- presidential primary cycle in memory, one thing has been pretty reliable: Almost every time a candidate’s back has been against the wall, that person pulled out an important victory. We saw it in New Hampshire, where Clinton and McCain badly needed wins to keep their campaigns alive. We saw it in Michigan, where Romney had to triumph in his native state after finishing second in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And we saw it in South Carolina, where Obama needed a big win after earlier losses in New Hampshire and Nevada. With Obama rattling off 11-straight wins since Super Tuesday and widening his delegate lead, Clinton’s back is yet again against the wall as we head into today’s contests Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Does she follow the pattern and pull out impressive wins in these states? Or does she meet the same fate Romney did on Super Tuesday after losing in Florida the week before: winning in some states, but not by enough to keep the candidacy alive? Fasten your seatbelts, folks. This should be a fun ride tonight.

*** The spin: So how do we measure success or failure tonight? There is no doubt that Clinton has more riding on tonight’s contests than Obama does; both Ohio and Texas are must-wins for her. She can continue her campaign by winning just Ohio, but for her to have a legitimate chance to close Obama’s delegate lead, she needs to win three out of the four (Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island) -- and win decisively in at least one of the big states. But the Clinton campaign doesn’t seem to be in agreement. “We are very optimistic about our chances of success in Ohio and Texas,” communications director Howard Wolfson said yesterday. “If the outcome is otherwise, we can discuss it then.” However, this is also an opportunity for Obama to knock Clinton out. If he doesn’t do it tonight, when does he do it? Then again, even if Clinton narrowly wins both Ohio and Texas, Obama’s team believes the math has already knocked her out. “There’s the cold, hard reality of the [delegate] math,” campaign manager David Plouffe said on a conference call yesterday. “They keep trying to move the goal posts but at some point you run out of field."

*** Other things to watch: Here are a few very plausible scenarios: Obama could net more delegates out of Vermont than Clinton does out of Ohio. Clinton can win both Ohio and Texas, 52%-48%, and lose the overall delegate battle tonight, thanks to how both Texas and Ohio award more delegates in African-American heavy areas as well as those crazy Texas caucuses. Speaking of Texas, Obama likely has a five-point cushion on the delegate front, meaning he could lose the state by five points and still net delegates. How will the media handle Clinton winning two states but Obama winning the most delegates tonight? Who wins the night? Bonus question: Who do we reward the state of Texas to if Clinton wins the popular vote in the primary but Obama nets the most delegates? And finally, for all the talk of bias against Clinton's campaign in the media, does anyone believe any other candidate could have lost 11-straight contests, be this far behind in delegates, and be simply two victories away from being back in the game? One thing the media has done is they've given Clinton every chance she wants to write her own comeback story. She gets another shot today.

*** The basics: At stake tonight are a total of 370 delegates. Texas is the biggest prize with 193 of them (126 proportional by senatorial district in the primary, 67 determined by the caucuses afterwards). In most parts of the Lone Star State, polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET, but in El Paso and the surrounding area, they close at 9:00 pm ET. The caucuses take place immediately after polls close. In Ohio, 141 delegates are up for grabs (92 proportional by congressional district, 49 proportional by statewide vote). Polls in the Buckeye State open at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. There are 21 delegates at stake in Rhode Island, where polls close at 9:00 pm ET. And there are 15 delegates up for grabs in Vermont, where polls close at 7:00 pm ET.

*** The absentee factor: Yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli reported that there are signs Obama might have the early-voting edge in Ohio. Indeed, these contests could very well be the first ones in which early/absentee voting actually benefits Obama, because that voting will have started after Obama went on his post-Feb. 5 run. Factor in some bad weather -- lots of rain -- expected in Ohio, and does that cut into Clinton’s lead there?

*** McCain’s dream scenario: There are at least two people hoping Sen. Hillary Clinton does well tonight -- Clinton, of course, but also McCain. (Perhaps we should include the Canadian government, but that’s another story…) The last thing McCain needs right now is to face a de facto Democratic nominee by the name of Sen. Barack Obama. For now, McCain's has an incredible challenge in front of him: He has to build a national campaign. He does not need a presumptive Democratic opponent on March 5. But if Obama comes roaring out of Tuesday’s contests as the de facto nominee, it’s going to be a tough few months for the GOP. But not so much if the Dem contests move into Pennsylvania and beyond. Why? Think back to 1996. Obama's $75 million fundraising months will be money that's used to define McCain between now and the conventions. If McCain gets more time to get his campaign structure together, he can minimize the time he's vulnerable to being dramatically outspent.

*** Hitting the magic number: Speaking of McCain, the Arizona senator does have an opportunity to hit the 1,191 magic number to lock up the GOP nomination -- if you factor in the delegates he picked up from Romney, as the AP has. Including some of Romney’s delegates, McCain has garnered 1,032 delegates. So that means he needs to win 159 out of the 256 delegates at stake in tonight’s contests to hit the 1,191 number. Look for many a network to declare McCain the presumptive GOP nominee assuming he does win Texas.

*** Florida watch: We should have mentioned this yesterday, but Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has suggested that his state could have a do-over Democratic primary race. That idea set of speculation that Crist’s offer is pure politics intended to keep the Dem contest alive to benefit McCain, whom the governor has endorsed. Just asking: Will the GOP-controlled legislature be willing to use taxpayer dollars to fund a Democratic do-over? Also, as clever as this may be to Republicans who would love the Dem primary to go on and on and on, is it really a good idea to encourage the two Dems to spend a bunch of time in Florida and erase McCain's current advantage in the state?

*** Remember these guys? Down the ballot tonight, it will be interesting to see how both Kucinich and Paul -- who face primary opposition for their congressional seats -- fare tonight in Ohio and Texas, respectively. Does Kucinich, in particular, face any backlash for his back-to-back quixotic White House bids? And by the way, Paul still hasn’t withdrawn from the presidential race… We've already seen quite a few incumbent House members lose when turnout goes unexpectedly up (see Maryland).

*** On the trail: Clinton is in Columbus, OH for her Election Night party; Huckabee has his in Dallas, TX, as does McCain; and Obama hold his Election Night party in San Antonio, TX.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 245 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 322 days

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Comments

OK, fine. I don’t respond to trolls as a general rule, but I will answer you Lynette, because I know you are a real, thinking person. There’s really no mystery about my posting at or near the top. I’m on the Pacific coast and I work a 7 AM shift. They usually put up the day’s First Thoughts in the ten minutes or so before I walk out the door. So I have time to get up and write something over a cup of coffee, and post it just before I leave. I’m usually in the field the rest of the day, so it’s first or not at all for me. If you only want to hear from people who agree with you, then skip it. I won’t be offended.

Now would be a good time to get to know the real candidate, instead of the straw man you folks have been flailing away at. If you challenge us to demonstrate that Barack isn’t just hot air, then you need to look when we provide the evidence. Otherwise you’re just putting out hot air of your own. If you want to see how it’s done, check out this thoughtful and well-researched comparison by Grassroots Mom, titled “I Refuse to Buy into the Obama Hype.” http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/20/201332/807/36/458633
It’s too bad the MSM doesn’t do the kind of job she has done here.

If you’re emotionally attached to one candidate and a better one showed up unexpectedly, I’m sorry. I’ve been there and I know it can be painful. But if you are a Hillary backer I assume you are a strong supporter of women’s issues. The right wing of the Republican Party will extract from McCain ironclad promises to appoint more conservative justices to the Supreme Court, which he is inclined to do anyway. It’s time to take a deep breath before letting disappointment back you into a firm position that is against the best interests of our daughters and granddaughters. I think there is an old expression about cutting off your nose to spite your face that would apply to a vote for McCain.

I have a great deal of respect for Hillary. I just think she’s run a lousy campaign this year. I have very little respect for her husband however, and the thought of Bill back in the White House representing me and my party makes me shudder. As far as I’m concerned he let us all down terribly for nothing more than a few minutes of self-gratification, and cost us the pivotal election in 2000. I’m not about to speculate as to why Hillary is still with him, but I didn’t marry him and I would like him to just go away now, please.

We need to end this thing, people. For whatever reasons Hillary ran the wrong campaign this cycle. She positioned herself as an establishment incumbent in a change election. They did a poor job of managing their finances and took far too much for granted in their planning. She continues to insist that she’s a fighter when most of us think the last thing we need is another round of Red/Blue warfare. Time’s up; she can’t keep up this endless retooling of her message while John has already started the general election campaign. The only thing she can accomplish now is the Republican’s task for them by dragging down our strongest candidate. We saw in 2000 what happens when our nominee tries to run in crossfire. We get shot down.

Jaycee, Ventura, California (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:08 AM)

VOTER FRAUD IN OHIO;

Please check it out. My entire family (mom, dad and brother) LIFE LONG DEMOCRATS, got to the polls this morning to find we'd been switched to registered REPUBLICANS?

We were all voting for Obama.

adam/cincinnati (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:09 AM)

As an Obama supporter, I have a really bad feeling this morning. True, he might split the delegates evenly from today’s primaries, but the fact remains Hillary is going on; probably all the way to Denver. Funny how fleeting ‘hope’ can be or the thousands of voices chanting “yes we can” can simply vanish. I am completely at a loss for thinking Senator Obama is going to either win the nomination or Presidency.

How can she live with herself? I have ‘Googled’ the internet for weeks trying to find the reference point which claims it was her divine right to be the nominee. She is the direct and sole reason the GOP will reclaim the White House, and probably reclaim control of Congress. How will she feel as a woman after the Supreme Court gets packed with a conservative tilt, and Roe v. Wade gets overturned? How will she feel when parents across the country lose another 3,000 of their sons & daughters in Iraq? How will she feel when the Constitution gets raped for another couple of years by the Repukes? How will she feel when gas hits $4 a gallon, and the economy is on the brink of depression? How will she feel when the world no longer seeks us out for leadership because we are so despised internationally? Of course by now, I already know she has no ethical backbone, so why should she care if she brings down the party and the country? How did we get to the point where comedian Limbaugh openly stresses for people in Texas to vote for her?

Yes, Hillary will be to blame. The sad thing is nobody will even fault her for the loss she is going to cause; just because she is a Clinton and a weeping woman. I had somehow thought that we had smarter people in this country. Obviously not.

Chuck, NY (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:09 AM)

So the Republican governor of Florida offers the Democrats a chance to un-disenfranchise their voters, and the Democrats want to turn down the offer?

Why not save a lot of money and let Gore, Bill Clinton, and Howard Dean just pick the Democratic nominee?

Len Holt, Clearwater FL (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:13 AM)

I just hope all Democrats keep in mind that, whoever wins the night (or if it's a tie), we're all on the same team working towards the same goals. We've got two brilliant people running for the White House, let's not tear one another down as the race goes forward, because whoever emerges as the eventual winner will be our only chance of ending the war and ensuring economic justice for average Americans. Leave the trolling and character assassination to the right-wing racists and misogynists. Best of luck to both Clinton and Obama!

Klaus (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:35 AM)

I wish someone would talk about the potential shift in voters in states Clinton already won. I know a lot of people who voted for Clinton, but given the events of the past few weeks, now absolutely refuse to support her. I'm curious if this is nationwide trend, or something particular to my community. Clinton may no longer be able to take some of the states she won on Feb. 5, potentially weakening her overall position. Since nationwide polls have shown Obama beating McCain in a head to head, it seems like this might be an important thing to look into. It makes me worry that if she does win the nomination, however unlikely that seems right now, the Dems will lose. I wish she had thought more about the effect of her recent tactics on supporters in states who have already voted. It's not looking good in my community . . .

marla, CA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:37 AM)

You have to give the Clinton's credit . They like Bush have the Press in awe or at bay. No serious pressure for her to release tax returns( all candidates left in the race have released them), nor has she been held to light by convicted felons giving to her campaign. What I have heard the last week is how she is the victim. She even left open the lie that Obama is a musilim( he is not). The press wants a story . The story here is the comeback of Hillary. Regardless, of what Hillary wants the facts are she will not achieve the necessary vote totals to pick up enough delegates to ovrcome Obama. The end result will be great theater but the Clinton's will, as they did in the 2000 elections, hand the Presidency and possibly the Senate or House to the Republicans. Then the Devisive Hillary can arrgue for her mandates on Helath care but get nonbthig passed. In the end our country suffers. Hillary will write her memoirs and bemoan the right wing conspiracy and make millions on our backs. It is my beleif John McCain will beat her in the general. Her experience will be flushed out as nothing in comparison to his.( on Iraq he has the stronger claim of consistency than she does. All she can argue is it was Bush's fault. He can argue I took on Bush and got the surge in place to put Iraq on the path to stability. Of course no significant political markers have been met) He will go to the center and Hillary will be stuck with a depressed democratic electorate because she overturned the elected delegates. It's a shame that the Clintons believe the U.S. owes them the Presidency. They owe us a better choice than the same devisive politics we have had since the early 1980's.

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:37 AM)

to jaycee, ventura -

hear, hear. you're so right on the money! cheers1

only the truth (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:38 AM)

THE ONLY THING FOR WHICH HILLARY CAN LEGITIMATELY CLAIM 35 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IS 35 YEARS OF SCANDALS.

...the Rose Law firm (a corporate firm for which Hillary is claiming 15 of her 35 years of her "experience"), Whitewater, Travelgate....and on, and on...

MKD (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:38 AM)

Just two weeks ago, Hillary had 20 point leads in both Ohio and Texas. After Wisconsin, everyone agreed that Hillary would need BIG wins in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania just to have a chance.

Today, it seems that Obama supporters are discouraged about the latest polls showing Hillary up by about 5 points in Ohio and tied with Barack in Texas. Think for a second. If the polls prove to be correct, she will have fallen well short of her goal and taken another step closer to mathematical elimination. The handful of delegates she would win today would only put a small dent in her deficit.

The only bad thing that will certainly happen if she wins either Texas, Ohio or both is she will spin it to make it look like Barack is the one who is suddenly close to losing the nomination. The Clinton campaign has done a great job the past few weeks of making her look competative despite her horrible numbers. The sad thing is that she has done it by throwing 3 or 4 negative attacks a day at Barack. Her attacks have become the lead story.

I believe that in the end, people will grow weary of seeing Hillary's constant attacks. She has all but given up trying to get people to like her based on her own merits. Instead she has decided to try to make people dislike Barack. That strategy can't work for long. I predict that even her own supporters will start to see her for what she really is.

Hillary represents all that is wrong with American politics. She will say absolutely anything to anyone to get elected. Her supporters need to know that for every one person that loves her, there are one and half people who loathe her. That has been the case since long before she decided to run for president.

As a lifelong democrat, I can say without a doubt that I have lost all respect for her. She has done enough evil in this primary season to make me stay home this November if she somehow becomes the nominee. If she knocks off Barack by continuing to bear false witness against him, I believe that she will still get what's coming to her in the general election. Then she can take back her cold seat next to Barack in senate.

Quinn, Houston (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:38 AM)

Finally, you have admitted that the media bias against Mrs.Clinton is a fairy tale. I can only imagine what the Clinton spin and the media would have said if Obama has lost 11 in a row. Yes, you have given her a chance to write her comeback story, and you let her and her surrogates get by with their distortions ( I am being polite)
And what a surprise, another flattering picture of Mrs. Clinton on your lead page
The Republican must be laughing all the way to the White House

Gerry W, Vancouver, Canada (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:39 AM)

I realize Hillary is a fighter. It's just become painfully obvious that she is fighting for her own glory and not for any one of us. I feel for those who have so ardently supported her. It is hard to be disillusioned by something you believe in. I've been there, as in Bill Clinton. Americans, you had a chance to elect the best guy to come along in decades. Hillary Clinton or John McCain are your choices? That's a scary indictment on what our society has become. Oh, and thanks again to Jaycee and Chuck NY's for their posts. It is comforting to know there are some enlightened people our there. I like to remember that even a small light can make an impact in a great room of darkness.

Bonnie (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:39 AM)

"And finally, for all the talk of bias against Clinton's campaign in the media, does anyone believe any other candidate could have lost 11-straight contests, be this far behind in delegates, and be simply two victories away from being back in the game? One thing the media has done is they've given Clinton every chance she wants to write her own comeback story. She gets another shot today."

Finally someone with guts to state the facts. If Obama had lost 11 contest in a row, the media would have written him off, but the continue to give Hillary seccond chances.

Mike, Upper Marlboro, MD (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:39 AM)

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:40 AM)

...both Texas and Ohio award more delegates in African-American heavy areas...

To the authors: you needn't try and imfluence the election by posing democratic faction vs. faction. Texas and Ohio award delegates based not on race but previous performance of the districts. Which makes sense. If you consistently win any district and lose others, why would you not weight the districts you win with more delegates; it's the only way texas dems could get anyone elected.

T Hussein (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:41 AM)

VT = Obama by wide margin

RI = Clinton by 7 points

OH = Obama by 2 points (Hillary threatens recount)

TX = Obama by 4 in primary, wide margin in caucus

Hillary suspends campaign by this Saturday.

Perhaps a whole lot of wishful thinking in those predictions.

DCuz
www.RightCuz.com

DCuz, Grand Rapids, MI (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:42 AM)

I was fascinated to hear this morning that democrats are 2 and half times more likely than republicans to wuss out in bad weather and not vote...it is also why the dems don't win many national elections, we can't stand wussies...

Rick, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:42 AM)

Too bad Hillary isn't in Texas, also. In fact, it's too bad the four candidates didn't have a group party in Terlingua. They could've saved the Taxpayers a lot of money if they'd of had Willie stop by and pick the President for us. Replacing Diebold with Luckenbach, is my idea of 'Frontier Justice'. The way it is now, it's certain we'll get another Goat-roper like Dubya.

Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:42 AM)

If anyone needs one more reason to vote for Obama, check out who's supporting Clinton...

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_030308/content/01125107.guest.html

Keith in Maryland (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:43 AM)

This race is going down to the convention and here is why.

Using the CNN numbers Obama has 1184 pledged delegates to Clintons 1031. They need 2025 delegates to get the nomination.

The remaining states are as follows:

Mississippi: 40
Ohio: 161
Rhode Island: 32
Texas: 228
Vermont: 23
Wyoming: 18
Pennsylvania: 188
Guam: 9
Indiana: 84
North Carolina: 134
West Virginia: 39
Kentucky: 66
Oregon: 65
Montana: 24
South Dakota: 23
Puerto Rico: 63

For a total of 1191. Obama needs over 71 % of the remaining pledged delegates and Clinton needs over 80% of the remaining pledged delegates. Now looking at the past voting Obama’s highest percentage of votes was 79% in the Idaho Caucuses. He has only come close to that number in the DC primary with 75%. Clinton has only come close to 80% in the Arkansas primary with 70%. The average in most primaries has been about 60 – 64 % Obama and 36 – 40 % Clinton in his wins. Clinton 55%-60% and Obama 40 – 45% in Clintons wins. The pressure is on Clinton to win big while Obama also needs to win big to clinch this. They can split todays elections and still not come out with a clear winner. Unless one of these two can win and win big it goes till August.

John, Sc (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:43 AM)

I am of the opinion that no matter how this election comes out, Senator Clinton will find a way to spin it to her advantage and soldier on as long as she has the money. My hesitation about her is simply that I don't think the Presidency was ever intended to be the "right" of certain families. That, and she has shown poor judgment, her vote for Iraq being an example.

As to Jaycee...I like reading your stuff. It is thoughtful, and not just because we mostly agree. I like reading anything that causes me to think no matter if it is for Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:43 AM)

Research your candidate and find out for yourself whether or not they will lead this country back to greatness. Don't depend on the media or some other third party to do it for you. It WILL BE WORTH THE TIME AND EFFORT! Trust me!

Wendy, Phoenix, Arizona (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:45 AM)

To be sure, Hillary's burning need to take the White House is what's driving her campaign even now. But I wonder how much a role the media plays in keeping her campaign alive.

They love the "continuing battle story" almost as much as they love the "Comeback Kid" story. We've seen op-eds go one way, then the other. And Clinton can longer claim Obama gets favorable press treatment in light of coverage of the Rezko trial, coverage of the Candian parliament absurdity, et al.

While pollsters are predicting a turnout in excess of 3 million voters total, making the election results nearly impossible to predict, we're going to make predictions anyway:

http://www.nationalscold.com/2008/03/primary-predictions-texas-and-ohio.html

Gustavo Herrera, Baltimore MD (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:45 AM)

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:46 AM)

PLEASE for GOD SAKE; don't destroy our democracy by stealing the one thing that makes us DEMOCRATIC. Our right to vote for who we choose. Adam in OH, I pray that this is not true and that we are not going to have our votes stolen and another FLORIDA is on the rise. WE CAN"T TAKE THAT AGAIN....SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING PLEASEEEEEE, we will be DOOMED AS AMERICANS..DON"T LET THIS HAPPEN for GOD SAKE.

ARE WE THIRD WORLD NOW?....ARE WE STILL THE SUPERPOWER?..who have we become....THIS is INSANE and SHAMEFUL the WORLD IS WATCHING.

KW, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:46 AM)

Somthing for you all to think about here, in TX, OH, RI and VT, before going to the polls today. This is the Democratic Party Primary, and yet, at least one of the contenders, was an ARDANT Republican in their past life.

In fact this person was PRESIDENT of the YOUNG REPUBLICANS at their alma mater. So Republican were they, that this person passionately campaigned for Barry Goldwater. This person canvassed South Chicago looking for voter fraud perpetuated by...Democrats!!

Don't belive me? I figured. So check out Matt Taibbi and Rolling Stone's great article a few issues back.

So who is this arch-Republican? Why, none other than the candidate who is running on their long and storied "experience". Hillary Clinton.

If part of your experience is being a Republican, if part of your experience is holding the poor man down (read the South Chicago incident referenced above), then doesn't that part of your experience count too?

Whatever your proclivities to Obama are, my friends and fellow citizens, at least he was and always has been a Democrat. I would think that fact should matter quite heavily in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY Primaries.

Just a thought...

Andrew (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:47 AM)

The prospect of another five months of Kitchen Sink politics is de-moralizing. Thank you, Hillary for sucking the hope out of a generation.

domenica (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:47 AM)

Hillary is throwing the kitchen sink and all the mud in her backyard at Senator Obama, and the U.S., being the nation that it is, will let some of that smear and slur stick on him. The Clintons' negative, win-at-all-costs, divisive, nasty, lying ruthless, relentless, dirty, me-first, dynastic-driven politics may yet win them the nomination. Woe then to the Democratic Party. Many of us citizens will believe, rightfully so, that the race has been won by cheating and bullying, just in the way the Republican swiftboating party wins elections. With Hillary, it will be the status quo, the way things are done in Washington, and a sure way to turn off millions of new Dems and senior citizen Dems like me. Even if the Clinton dynasty will return to the WH for eight more years (and who will clean up after them this time?), their dynastic rule will mark a deepening cynicism, apathy, and despair in the American people. It will not be change we can believe in, but more of the same old, same old we no longer want.

shirl (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:48 AM)

IT'S THE DELEGATES, STUPID!! Doesn't matter who wins what, as long as one of them scoops up more delegates than the other. In America, the popular vote means nothing. (See 2000)Unless Ohio pulls its usual scams (thank you for your post, Adam!)the delegate count added up among the four races today will be the important thing to watch, no matter what the candidates' spin.

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:49 AM)

H I L L A R Y C L I N T O N . C O M

B I L L (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:50 AM)

I think that we will have another Clinton in office. The media have basically attacked Obama unfairly before Wisconsin and now they are like sharks in a feeding frenzy when it comes to attacking Obama in order to make up for their perceived sexism. The media do not want change, and they'll do everything to stop Obama, from calling his followers a cult to making false claims (not checking their sources about the Obama adviser who went to Canada). Of course, this message won't even appear on MSNBC's website because big brother at MSNBC will moderate it!

John, Lawrenceville (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:50 AM)

KW, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:51 AM)

Clinton does not need an election night party because when it's all over she will be done. There is no need to celebrate a loss.

ChiChi For Obama (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:51 AM)

It's been interesting to see Clinton try and claw her way back in this thing. But I have to say I have been profoundly disapointed seeing her attack a fellow democrat the way she has. She sounds like John McCain's running mate the way she spews out lie after lie about Obama. And that aint good for the Dems in November. She and her husband have lost any respect I might have had for them.

Luanne (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:51 AM)

Barack Obama is nothing but a gas bag full of hot air. He is a product of the one of the most corrupt political machines in the country with Illinois politics. He's gotten his own sweet heart land deals similar to the Clintons. He talks about all the things he is going to do, without have any ability to show us what he's done - mostly because he hasn't done anything. The press has swooned over him, and hasn't challenged him on any aspect of his beliefs, plans, or (lack of) accomplishments. One media watch dog group noted that 84% of network and cable news outlets were positive about Obama. That is a remarkable number. In contrast, 53% were positive about Clinton. Obama is one of the least vetted candidates we've ever seen. The country would be in one sorry a** place if this man ever talked his way into the White House.

Speaking of gas bags, who is this Obama hack "jaycee"?

Glenn Davis, Danville PA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:52 AM)

Hillary has been bashed by the media--it's been ugly. Hard to watch some of you hit her hard. It appears as if the media picks apart everything about her. Why isn't Obama being hit hard with crticisms? What has Obama really been saying in his speeches? When Hillary is negative about Obama it's a big Media deal---but if he says something negative about her---the Media thinks it's just fine. The media wants Obama for some reason to be the Democratic Candidate. I'd like to see Hillary pull out some strong wins tonight.

Dee, Livonia, MI (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:52 AM)

Did you hear about the little city called Obama in Japan. We need Obama City in USA.

ChiChi, Atlanta, GA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:52 AM)

Hillary Clinton for Prez! Let's see what happens. Remember, we want someone who has the know how, the will power, and the skill power to get it done. Momentum is on Hillary's side and she is trying to tell you that she knows how to get it done!!!

Donna Midkiff, Huntington WV (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:53 AM)

Hillary set out to take this race into the dirt - and she has, now she's happy. Think before you vote. Is this REALLY where we want our leader to take us?
Voters, if you want change - you have to be a part of it! Show the world and the politicians that we are DONE with this kind of negative campaigning.

We are THROUGH with Clintrovian Politics!

Vote for Obama.

SD, CA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:53 AM)

Well worth repeating. Hey Ohio! Read this!

"*** McCain’s dream scenario: There are at least two people hoping Sen. Hillary Clinton does well tonight -- Clinton, of course, but also McCain. (Perhaps we should include the Canadian government, but that’s another story…) The last thing McCain needs right now is to face a de facto Democratic nominee by the name of Sen. Barack Obama."

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:53 AM)

I hope for the country's sake Hillary wins...

and you MSNBC have Obama advertisements posted all over the front page! your network is obamabiased!

Maria Christine, Richardson, TX (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:53 AM)

Barack Obama: A Lesson in 21st Century American Politics!

Talk about continuing education and how average American workers will need to get additional training, on average, about five or so times during their working careers? For starters, I believe Bill and Hillary Clinton, all their advisors and campaign gurus, plus a lot of the talking head prognosticators and 20th century pollsters—if they’re to survive—will have to return for 21st century American politics refresher courses ASAP following this election cycle. This once-in-a-generation Barack Obama phenomenon will be the main unit of study for quite some time and have “those who really get it” re-write all the current playbooks of American politics, complete with brand new glossaries. And many of the current, yet passé labels will have to be re-examined and dropped from the political lexicons once and for all. One thing’s for certain: no one will ever take the truly-educated and Internet-savvy, grassroots organizers—of all stripes and strata—for granted again!

Roland Madore, Fort Collins, CO (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:55 AM)

Interesting how a couple of weeks ago the bar set by the Clinton Campaign and the press was a lot higher- decisive wins for Hillary were predicted for their 'firewall'. Now even nail biting wins, or even a split in Ohio & Texas is being proclaimed by the Clinton camp as evidence that she should get the nomination. Unless Hillary wins decisively in both Texas and Ohio then the only way she can come in ahead in delegate counts is by seating the Russian Election like results from Florida and Michigan. It would be a sham and the super-delegates know as much. Look for the party leaders and super delegates to coalesce around Obama unless Hilary picks up substantial ground in the delegate math after Tuesday. Its not rocket science.

ArthurW from Cville VA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:55 AM)

"However, this is also an opportunity for Obama to knock Clinton out. If he doesn’t do it tonight, when does he do it?"

_____________________________________________________

Senator Obama has won 11 straight contests, most by by a margin of 15 points or better. Senator Obama has made up 20 point leads in both Ohio and Texas. No matter what happens tonight, he has ALREADY delivered the knock out blow. No matter where you put the goal posts, Senator Obama CLEARLY has the ball.

Obama '08

Nashville_fan (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:55 AM)

I simply am astounded by the lengths to which Clinton has gone to discredit Obama. She claims to be the ONLY candidate with experience or solutions. She characterizes him as "Missing in Action" and "Just a Speech." Who wouldn't vote for her, since her opponent is protrayed as virtually unqualified, misguided and incompetent!?

Well, Obama supporters are not buying it! We know that Obama has both credible experience and excellent solutions. What's more, he represents the Change that America wants and needs, while Clinton embodies the "status quo" - divisiveness and negative attacks!

Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island were all once in her column, as were most of the 50 states when this contest began (including Iowa). Now, they are virtually up for grabs. Again, her campaign is misrepresenting this as a "must win" for Obama! No, it is the Clinton campaign that "must win" or it will be in even worse shape than it is already!

Hillary, have you NO shame???

John Wilson, Raleigh, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:56 AM)

Google state primary polls-3-4-08, top four Ohio polls show inceases for Hillary over last. Thats more important then the number (even though she is ahead) as it shows that the late deciding are breaking for her. Now go to Texas and its the same, except not by as much. Two polls she was behind and now she is ahead. Obama had a terrible day yesterday, what with Rezko and the Canadian NAFTA disaster, the breaking vote should continue to move in her direction.He spent the entire day defending and "changing" his stories with the "hope" that they would go away. Same old Washington double speak, well such much for "hope'" and change.

gene (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:56 AM)

The FL Governor wants Fl delegates to count so that Clinton may win, because he knows if Clinton wins, then McCain will have a ball in November. He knows McCain cannot beat Obama so why not pay to have Clinton's rerun and win, so she can be the democratic nominee, then McCain will have an easy time in November.

But that said, if Obam campaigns in FL, Clinton will not have it easy there.

ChiChi, Atlanta, GA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:56 AM)

Chuck in NY,

I couldn't agree with you more. I pray that the DNC will step in and put a stop to this madness. It is obvious that Clinton is out for herself and not thinking of the damage she is doing to the democratic party. There is no way that she will have the delegates to win this. She is giving the race to the republicans.

Shawn, FL (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:56 AM)

What is now crystal clear is that Hillary Clinton will NEVER voluntarily suspend her campaign for the presidency.
The question is not going to be resolved on March 5, but on March 13 after Wyoming & Mississippi have gone to the polls.
Party leaders will be faced with two choices.
1. Watch the democratic party slip into a civil war whose first phase would not end until the dust had settled at the convention. And whose future, post convention would very likely be of two separate parties as the looser of the convention battle or their supporters would simply form a third party.
2. Look at the sentiments of the undeclared party leadership as expressed by Governor Bill Richardson when he set the bar this past weekend. He said that whoever has the most pledged delegates after Tuesday March 4 should be the nominee. If you follow this expression then what we should be watching for is a major swing in super delegates post March 4 to the candidate with the most pledged delegates. If this were to occur then the landscape post March 11 would look very different.
Obama would garner a total of 550 or so pledged super delegates. When coupled with his total of pledged delegates of about 1474-1500 post March 11 he would be within 40-70 delegates needed for the nomination.
In this scenario look to the party leadership to exert leadership influence over Hillary's 240 pledged super delegates to resolve the matter for the good of the party if Hillary were to still publicly buck the will of the party & the voters.
I agree that it is unlikely, barring a sweep by Obama on March 4 that there will be a resolution to the nominee question then.
I am equally sure that if post March 11 Hillary does not have the majority of pledged delegates the party will put the race for the nomination to rest long before an effort to split the party and declare civil war ever gained credence.

PAW, Oakland, CA (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:57 AM)

I have finally reached the point where I can't vote for Hillary...and I am sure people are going to say that is horrible...but I need a President I respect. She and Bill have killed that for me. I have three sisters and an educated outlook and don't have any issue with women at all but Hillary is a bad person I have finally realized...

media bias ugh...Can everyone please put it in perspective...if any candidate had lost 11 contests, run this negative of a campaign, had there own campaign chair people with such venom, and who threatened the party and brought such negativity to the youth and next generation...they would have been forced out...Hillary has such a backdated...long standing influence behind the scenes ...If she wins...I am sorry (please don't get mad it just makes it worse) I see there is no point in the people not going along with the machine...sad.

iamtobe (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 9:57 AM)

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