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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: Races won't alter delegate lead

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 4:15 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
IN THE AIR BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO -- No matter what happens during tonight's primary, Obama says he's confident that he will have the lead in pledged delegates heading into August's Democratic convention in Denver.

Coming to the back of the plane with his wife Michelle by his side, Obama joked that reporters had said he didn't take enough questions yesterday so here was their chance.

On what tonight's outcome might mean for his candidacy and for Clinton's, Obama reminded the group that he "started 20 points behind in Texas and Ohio."

"We closed the gap, but you know whether it's going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout," Obama said of today's contests. "We know there's not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another -- just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week." 

But he said that no matter what the outcome, it would be difficult for Clinton, who currently trails him by more than one hundred pledged delegates, to make up his lead.

"You know what my head tells me is that we've got a very sizeable delegate lead that is going to be hard to overcome," he said. "I am, you know, confident that we can maintain a pledged delegate lead going into the convention."

Obama, however, was quick to point out that he was not underestimating Clinton, calling her a "tough opponent" and "tenacious campaigner," adding that his campaign didn't want to "jump the gun."

But he also referred to Bill Richardson's remarks this past Sunday on "Face the Nation"  that today's primaries were "D-Day for the Democrats," implying that party elders were watching and also wanted to quickly decide on a nominee.

"I think right now, many of them are watching to see what the voters will decide. You heard Bill Richardson talk about on Sunday for him and others that to bring this to a close is important," he said.

He also claimed that the tone of his campaign would not change, despite increased attacks from Clinton. 

Michelle Obama, who stood by her husband for most of the press conference, said that they would be unrattled by negative attacks and said that Obama has been "pretty tough all year."
 
"You know this is a tough game, you know this is how it goes. This hasn't been anything under than what we expected. You know you gotta be ready for tough questions and he's handled himself well," she said. "You gotta admit he's been pretty cool calm and collected through this whole year, most of which he's been down in the polls. He wasn't supposed to be here," she said.

Unlike yesterday's contentious press conference, today's ended on a light note, with Obama saying that he had missed the caricature of the Democratic race on Saturday Night Live this past Saturday night.

But he had a message for Tina Fey, whose skit poking fun at the media's fawning over Obama received wide press coverage.

"Clearly Tina Fey and I are gonna have to have a conversation. Ya know, I think she hasn't met me," he said.

Obama will do satellite interview for the rest of the day until this evening, when he will hold a rally in downtown San Antonio as the election results come in.

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Comments

Well, he couldn't be more right about that. All this Hillary come back stuff is hype. Show me the numbers Hillary!!!!
"Cool, calm and collected."

Well, have you seen the kind of angry outbursts from Senator Obamathat you've seen from Senator Clinton on the campaign trail?

I think the folks at Slate.com got it right...

http://www.slate.com/id/2185720/
The national polls now show Clinton leading Obama by 4 points. A turn around of ten. They also show Hillary beating McCain by 4 points and Obama loosing to McCain by 6. I think the jury is out on Obama. Time to concede Barack.
A commander-in-chief must always appear calm and confident, say what you may about Obama, but he is calm under fire.  One thing is certain, Obama has showed he can handle attacks, a mis-step or two within his campaign, bad press, front-runner status, underdog status, you name it, he's wore it.

Hillary's first brushes with the above and we don't see her reacting calmly and collectedly, we see her frailing away and her own staff imploding.  Where's the leadership?  

And don't tell me HRC isn't polarizing.  Look at this inter-party race, Hillary has managed to polarize even this race with her playing of the victim card to the point, putting the party back together for the general will take more doing than expected.  I truly hope this process ends with todays results.  Somebody put a fork in the primaries, time for something that matters more to the country as a whole.
An excerpt from a speech by Barack Obama explaining how his family was built by civil rights events in Selma, AL.

"So the Kennedy's decided we're going to do an airlift. We're going to go to Africa and start bringing young Africans over to this country and give them scholarships to study so they can learn what a wonderful country America is.

"This young man named Barack Obama (Sr.) got one of those tickets and came over to this country. He met this woman whose great great-great-great- grandfather had owned slaves; but she had a good idea there was some craziness going on because they looked at each other and they decided that we know that, (in) the world as it has been, it might not be possible for us to get together and have a child. There was something stirring across the country because of what happened in Selma, Alabama, because some folks are willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama Jr. Was born. So don't tell me I don't have a claim on Selma, Alabama. Don't tell me I'm not coming home to Selma, Alabama."

Very moving, except for two facts:

Obama was born in 1961. Selma marches didn't start until 1965.

And the bill that brought his father over ALSO started years before Selma. Selma had nothing to do with his father’s earning a right to be in this country.

So, the moral is, Obama is a terrific speaker, with a hell of a talent for public speaking.

But the truth is that in a speech such as this one, the facts were distorted and an audience's emotional attachment to their city's history was bent to satisfy his needs. I'm not saying other politicians don't do the same thing, but is he not supposed to be the change candidate?

Is he allowed to bend the facts to his convenience and then criticize others?
To bad the women writers of Saturday Night Live have showed their bias in the last two weeks. They will not help Hillary in the long run.
First of all, he's absolutely correct about the delegate math.  At MOST, even if Hillary makes a screaming, cackling victory speech tonight, the most net delegates she can pick up out of today's contests is around 10, when all the margins and precincts are figured.  And that scenario would yield the gain from today being erased by big Obama wins in Wyoming and Mississippi.  So BEST case scenario, she's looking at six weeks to Pennsylvania, with the same delegate deficit she has moving into today's contests. And obviously, then she has to make huge delegate inroads starting with that single state.

So much for your firewall and your dirty, slimy politics, Bill.  Get out of the white house business now, before you plummet towards Nixon in presidential legacy.

Obama '08.  Experienced, vetted, and REAL SOLUTIONS!!!!

He is right about what thing that after tonight he will still ahve the lead. Sen. Clinton will have to just amazing kick butt to catch him or get the lead tonight, or at all really. I'm interested to see how tonight and the next few days play out. Rumors of a lot of superdelegates coming out for Obama soon and he still hasn't released his Feb. fund raising figures. Could be interesting.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

Do the math Senator Clinton. If you take this to Denver you hand the Election to McBush.
If you get out now and start the healing, the Democratic party, Independents, and disaffected Republicans will give a mandate to Obama and regain a working majority in both houses of Congress.

Obama!
I'm crossing my fingers that the math I keep hearing about is correct!  What a breath of fresh air the Obamas are!  Not just air, but SUBSTANCE and INTEGRITY.  (some might have to look that up)
Obama knows that Hillary is willing to steal this from him and he is not taking anything for granted. He is not being arrogant (like she was) thinking that he is inevitably going to win the nomination. He is ready for a fight and is willing to do so. But he knows that he is the tougher candidate and can fight fair. He dose not have to go with low blows and sneak attacks to win. I say kudos to you Obama!!!!
Sorry, B. Hussein Obama, but you will be crying all week when Hillary kills you in the primaries today, and takes either a lead over you, and drastically catches up to you.  
WE'LL SEE ABOUT THAT.
Good luck Obama!

I just read about Hillary's commercials being altering Obama's skin tone to make him appear "darker". I think this is very sad! I appologize to the African American people. We do not stand for this! We are a United People... at least some of us!
Well, he's right on the delegate lead. But at this point, it doesn't seem like that will be enough to stop Clinton from continuing forward.

It's been clear for weeks that a superdelegate showdown is the ONLY way she can win. The only question is, how many bridges is she willing to burn to get there? And imagine if she loses to McCain?

Once more the Democrats will succeeded in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They couldn't beat Bush with everything going their way, and after another four years of disaster, with Bush's approval rating permanently in the 30s, they absolutely MUST win the White House if they're to regain any prestige or dignity whatsoever.

Primary predictions: http://www.nationalscold.com
Well, he's right on the delegate lead. But at this point, it doesn't seem like that will be enough to stop Clinton from continuing forward.

It's been clear for weeks that a superdelegate showdown is the ONLY way she can win. The only question is, how many bridges is she willing to burn to get there? And imagine if she loses to McCain?

Once more the Democrats will succeeded in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They couldn't beat Bush with everything going their way, and after another four years of disaster, with Bush's approval rating permanently in the 30s, they absolutely MUST win the White House if they're to regain any prestige or dignity whatsoever.

Primary predictions: http://www.nationalscold.com
There has been numerous reports, of Obama supporters trashing Hillary Clinton signs in Texas. Obama supporters are idiots !
Michigan and Florida still lurk in the background. Gov. Crist has said that he is willing to support a new election of Democratic delegates in Florida.  Michigan already has a primary scheduled for August 5th to which a presidential primary easily could be added.  Seems like it would be relatively easy to settle the issue at the ballot box if the candidates are so inclined.
OBAMA: RACES WON'T ALTER DELEGATE LEAD

LOL. Obama, If you keep saying that to yourself maybe it'll come true.
YES TODAY WE WILL FINALLY GET CHANGE, WHEN HILLARY WINS BIG !
Sen. Obama is absolutely correct in his assessment, but Clinton, her campaign, and the MSM will ignore this bit of fact because they are playing towards their own selfish agendas.  
... and Obama is getting another 50 Super Delegates who will be announced, tomorrow

This according to Tom Brokaw

Hillary is falling further and furhter behind in the delegate race

Barack Obama is inevitable

Barack Obama will be your next President

"You know what my head tells me is that we've got a very sizeable delegate lead that is going to be hard to overcome," he said. "I am, you know, confident that we can maintain a pledged delegate lead going into the convention."

You know, I think this guy says, "you know", a little too much.

Barack Obama
1,303.5
64.4% of the
2,025 needed

Hillary Clinton
1,212

59.9% of the
2,025 needed

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

Looks like math isn't one of Barry's better subjects.
Hillary wouldn't race-bait, would she ?

No, NOT HILLARY !!

Whatever it takes, right Hillary ?


From AmericaBlog.com (via Huff Post)

'...Why is Obama's skin blacker than normal in Hillary's new attack ad?

by John Aravosis (DC) · 3/04/2008 12:42:00 PM ET ·

DailyKos has the original scoop. I went and got the original footage from the Clinton ad, and then compared it to 3 different video clips of the same debate from 3 different sources. I did this so as to take into account any editing, or quality issues, that might have accounted for Obama having darker skin in any particular video. None of the 3 video sources I found showed Obama nearly as black as the Hillary ad does. Click the image above to see a larger version. Look at his lips. Look at his eyebrows. Look at how the red MSNBC background has turned more purple. Clearly the image was darkened. The question is "why."

It just keeps happening again and again and again. The Clintons keeps doing things, saying things, that sound awfully racist. And we're to believe that this, the - what? 8th, 10th time? - this has happened is again just a coincidence. The first half a dozen times you launch seemingly racist attacks on your black opponent, maybe - maybe - we can write it off as "boy you're really dumb not to get it." But having a seemingly-racist attack from the Clinton folks on Obama every single week, after a while, you don't get to play the "I had no idea!" card anymore. After that many times, you're race-baiting. You're using racism to win. And you're destroying your legacy and your husband's. Enough already.


Labels: hillary clinton, negative campaigning, racism...'
Obama, I prey God for you. I like you to win and unite our country. I also say that world is looking for a leader like you. I know hillary's supporters will talk about experience, that does not matter much. People need a leader and inspirer and a visionary. I am white and ask all my white friends, hispanic friends, Asian and black friends to support you
Of course she hasn't met you.  Otherwise she'd be ga ga over you.  Because you're so wonderful.
These were states that Clinton held huge leads in and considered to be her fire wall just a few short weeks ago. Regardless of who wins tonight, Obama made up a lot of ground in a short time and still has the momentum in my view. He has a clear delegate lead that will be hard to overcome. It would be better for the party if Hillary will bow out after this contest.
It delights me to learn of just how narrow 'the
gap' has become.  I'm tired of the Clintons,
the Bush men, and the Reagan years.  For the first
time in my life I am thrilled to be voting for
someone like Obama.  He's a leader.  He thinks
quickly and brilliantly on his feet, doesn't smirk while his opponent is making a statement
(as she did in last, and previous debates).  

She looks way too tired, clearly does not
nor has she  taken care of her health and
weight ... beyond that her EXPERIENCE is
that of her husband's not her own.

The remark on 60 minutes really is telling
of her inability to bring people together.  "At
least there's no evidence he's Muslim as far as
I know."  What a stupid statement.  What a
witch, to knowingly bring some doubt to people
who are truly UNINFORMED or easily persuaded.
Dirty Trickster .... she is.  Good-bye Hillary.
It's time for you to take a FINAL bow and get
behind our party and our candidate BARACK OBAMA.
Being young on the scene helps because there isn't much to scrutinize.
Only problem is when fighting a guerilla war, the insurgent forces immediately test new leadership. taking questions from reporters isn't tough. Finding out that 3,000 americans were intentionally killed all at once - thats tough. Being stabbed, beaten and interrogated by people who hit you on your broken arm - thats tough.
Repeating the same speech over and over - that's not tough. Saying you were right 6 years ago - that's not tough.
McCain is only tough candidate. The only one who can stand up to our enemies and fight hard to defeat them.
"We may lose and we may win though
We will never be here again" -- Take It Easy - Eagles
Obama, keep it rollin', the supers will not overturn the will of the people.  Continue to stay positive.  HRC is like a caged animal with a scorced earth mentality.  If she couldn't manage a campaign, how can she run a country?  Oh, my wife is an attorney, but its not on my resume.
Please God - save us from empty suit Oblahma!

Obama/Rezko08
All the way Obama. Keep up the good work no matter what Bill Clinton throws out there. His day and methods are past history and the times, they are a changing.

Imhoff
well Mr Obama - let us all hope and pray that you are correct that your lead does not alter heading into the Convention. There are many people all over the world waiting to see who we get next to deal with in the Whitehouse....."that" woman, who is only a slight improvement on the incumbent so called, "President" or yourself, a man who we can believe in for at least a first term, and all going well, another one after that !

YES - YOU - CAN !!

Richard Armstrong
New Zealand
I am an Obama supporter so it pains me to say that it really sounds like a big night for HRC.  The Clintonites sound really buoyant whilst Obama's campaign is setting the expectations low and keeping the talk geared towards the delegate count.  Plus, the press has characteristically overcompensated to the charges of earlier favoritism by now turning against Obama.

Lets not forget that while Obama had closed the poll gap in Ohio and Texas, the past few days have seen a bounce in favor of the Clintons.  The Clintons have finally found a way to balance their usual negativity with Hillary's feigning a sense of vulnerability and humanity.

I just don't get a good feeling for Obama.  I really hope I am wrong.
Obama is the Hope Bomb, he has the brilliance, judgement, and consistency to be President of the USA. He has accomplished much more than Hillary, he has much more substance, and the grace, honesty and stamina to lead our country. Keep on keeping on, Senator Obama, and don't let them (The Clintons) ever get to you. They don't play nice and need to be kicked outta the playpen.
The delegate count may not shift too much, but I'm venturing a guess that the popular vote is going to tilt significantly toward Hillary.

That's something that the superdelegates are going to have trouble talking down.
Oh, poor Obama had to bring his wife back with him - what was she there to beat them back if they came up with a "tough" question.  His attempt to make up for that disasterous press avail yesterday is too little, too late.

The chink in the armor has begun and let the chips fall where they may.  

Hmmm, and for an innocent man, just exactly WHY does he have one of his staffer's attending the Rezko pre-trial hearings FULL TIME taking notes??? Me thinks he protests too much.....

Go HILLARY '08 & '12
Go Obama! YES WE CAN!
Yes We CAN! OBAMA '08!
Mr. Obama, should you lose Ohio and Texas tonight you may want to think about bowing out of the race and work on unifying the party. With more experience under your belt you will surely get the nomination next time around. Help make history and let's elect the first female president of the United States.  
My--- O-----bama-bama-bama!
Clinton looks to have won Ohio, but Texas is still too close to call. As tight as these races are, Obama may be right...but it sounds like he's already putting a bit of spin on the evening. Check out the story and predictions at:
http://undecidedvoters.blogspot.com/
I wish America truly valued class and positivity in its politics.  Obama would win all 50 states.
I have a feeling Dems want more negativity and nastiness, provided by HRC.  Looks like you're gonna get it.  
The Republicans must be smiling...
Nothing Hillary can do, short of holding up the convention at gunpoint will not change the basic fact that the pledged delegate count will not alter itself sufficiently to give her the nomination. And the Supers aren't about to split the party in two just to satisfy Her lust for power. Face it Hill and all you Cintonistas out there- do the math. It allways ends up the same. Those of us who support Barack are not going anywhere and will not be changing our votes.
It is really time for the Democratic Party to unite and stop the bickering. This has been exciting but let's prepare for the fall. All the put downs will only led to the Republician Party fighting the party in the General Election. Hillary, bow out like a lady. In this day and time it is stell ok to be a lady.
Senator Obama will prevail. The Clinton's "kitchen sink" attack will ultimatley prove ill conceived and fruitless. Stand tall Barack, Yes We Can!
The 150 excess delegates of Obama represent hundreds of thousands of people.  The Clintons will not make them disappear regardless of what happened on the 4th.   The Clintons have decided to go nuclear literally (3AM) and threatening to take the Democratic electorate on a mud slide.
The outcome is clear: Obama.  Unless, of course, the Democratic Party wants to sabotage the process and end up in the same situation as 1968 and 1972.


"You know, I think she hasn't met me"? Um what! Is that all one has to do to be swayed over to the Obama camp! Give me a break. He's all air and no substance.
Obama God Is your strenght... the strenght and skills of men do fail,, But God will never fail you,... remember God's people when you cross to the other side of big seat.  For sure  You will battle mc cain, cos it has been writing for you to arise and shine


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