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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: Races won't alter delegate lead

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 4:15 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
IN THE AIR BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO -- No matter what happens during tonight's primary, Obama says he's confident that he will have the lead in pledged delegates heading into August's Democratic convention in Denver.

Coming to the back of the plane with his wife Michelle by his side, Obama joked that reporters had said he didn't take enough questions yesterday so here was their chance.

On what tonight's outcome might mean for his candidacy and for Clinton's, Obama reminded the group that he "started 20 points behind in Texas and Ohio."

"We closed the gap, but you know whether it's going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout," Obama said of today's contests. "We know there's not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another -- just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week." 

But he said that no matter what the outcome, it would be difficult for Clinton, who currently trails him by more than one hundred pledged delegates, to make up his lead.

"You know what my head tells me is that we've got a very sizeable delegate lead that is going to be hard to overcome," he said. "I am, you know, confident that we can maintain a pledged delegate lead going into the convention."

Obama, however, was quick to point out that he was not underestimating Clinton, calling her a "tough opponent" and "tenacious campaigner," adding that his campaign didn't want to "jump the gun."

But he also referred to Bill Richardson's remarks this past Sunday on "Face the Nation"  that today's primaries were "D-Day for the Democrats," implying that party elders were watching and also wanted to quickly decide on a nominee.

"I think right now, many of them are watching to see what the voters will decide. You heard Bill Richardson talk about on Sunday for him and others that to bring this to a close is important," he said.

He also claimed that the tone of his campaign would not change, despite increased attacks from Clinton. 

Michelle Obama, who stood by her husband for most of the press conference, said that they would be unrattled by negative attacks and said that Obama has been "pretty tough all year."
 
"You know this is a tough game, you know this is how it goes. This hasn't been anything under than what we expected. You know you gotta be ready for tough questions and he's handled himself well," she said. "You gotta admit he's been pretty cool calm and collected through this whole year, most of which he's been down in the polls. He wasn't supposed to be here," she said.

Unlike yesterday's contentious press conference, today's ended on a light note, with Obama saying that he had missed the caricature of the Democratic race on Saturday Night Live this past Saturday night.

But he had a message for Tina Fey, whose skit poking fun at the media's fawning over Obama received wide press coverage.

"Clearly Tina Fey and I are gonna have to have a conversation. Ya know, I think she hasn't met me," he said.

Obama will do satellite interview for the rest of the day until this evening, when he will hold a rally in downtown San Antonio as the election results come in.

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Bye Hillary.
I am fairly certain that Tina Fey had little or no input into the Obama sketch. She was only hosting the show that week; she is no longer the head writer on the show. Both Obama/Clinton sketches were the work of long-time SNL writer Jim Downey. There have been several articles published over the last couple of weeks (including one in the New York Times) pinpointing Downey as the author of the sketches.
I'm still in awe of Obama who could, if her wanted to play dirty like his opponent, raise topics like Hillary's tax returns, Walmart experience, and countless other issues.
Hillary cannot and will not catch up in delegates.
I'm waiting for Richardson, Gore, and others to stand up and say "Enough"...enough dirty politics, the losing candidate is bringing the party down.
All it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing....directed toward Richardson, Edwards, et al.

Obama has been winning a clean race and motivated millions of voters.
It's time for her to stop.
Big John endorses Little John
John Hagee, the Louis Farrakhahn of the far right



From Huff Post:

'...Catholic Media Figures Mum On McCain's Embrace Of Hagee

March 4, 2008 11:31 AM


During the Sunday Morning liveblog, it was noted that Tim Russert, dean of gotcha journalism, all but ignored one of the more controversial events of the week, anti-Catholic bigot John Hagee's endorsement of GOP frontrunner John McCain. It seemed to be a tailor-made moment for Russert, and the opportunity was well served up by McCain partisan Mike Murphy, but Russert whiffed. Media Matters recounts the blow-by-blow:

MURPHY: The McCain campaign's got to -- in my view, anyway, from the outside -- understand that the primary is over, they don't need to be campaigning with televangelists in San Antonio. They need to pivot to the general election in a way...with all due respect to the good reverend, and I will say as a Catholic boy who's spent a lot of time with John McCain, there is not an anti-Catholic atom in John McCain; he loves my people -- but pivot to the general election and take the fact that McCain is a different kind of Republican and run with it in a very bad environment where we need that kind of guy to win, or Democrat city. It'll set the conservative movement back 50 years.

RUSSERT: Let me show you another issue where there will be a difference between John McCain and either Obama or Clinton, and that's NAFTA, [panelist and Republican strategist] Mary Matalin. North America Free Trade Agreement.


Media Matters does a fine job parsing Russert's hypocrisy, noting that previously, he had "persisted with questions to Sen. Barack Obama about Louis Farrakhan's support of Obama, despite Obama's repeated denunciations of Farrakhan's statements." But what is perhaps more galling is that Russert is a Catholic himself -- proud John Carroll University alum and author of Big Russ And Me, which lovingly details the lessons learned from a Catholic upbringing. With this background, it's jarring that the Hagee endorsement didn't inspire any outrage in Russert or any fodder for discussion on Meet The Press.

Sadly, Russert is hardly alone in his inattention to the matter. NBC's Sunday morning lineup is dominated by media celebrities who strongly identify themselves as Catholic, and precisely none of them seemed capable of working up a scintilla of ire at the Hagee endorsement. Crooks and Liars' John Amato wondered where Holy Cross graduate Chris Matthews stood on the matter last Saturday. As of last night, he's still waiting. And rather than unleash the full contents of his fusty box of anger on McCain, John McLaughlin -- who was once an ordained Catholic priest -- seemed more intent on lowering the boom on what the Obama campaign may or may not have said to Canadian officials on NAFTA.

The unwillingness among these Catholic media figures to stand up for their fellows is nothing short of baffling. Sad, even -- so far, the loudest outcry on the matter has come from frothing Catholic League lunatic Bill Donohue. But it's easy to see how McCain, who once stood firm against "agents of intolerance," is going to skate by this election cycle seeking the warm embrace of bigots: too many agents of tolerance occupy the space where scrutiny is warranted...'
It doesn't matter what happens tonight. Hillary could lose by double digits everywhere and Howard Wolfson would spin an excuse to go on. This thing is going to the convention. It isn't in Hillary's DNA to concede.
I'm not sure it matters anymore bacause a portion of each candidate's support will evaporate in November if the other wins.
God help us all if we've got to hear the phrase "My friends" for the next four years.
Spending 5 to 1 in Michigan, 2 to 1 in Texas, sure he's made progress. But there are people who cannot be swayed by the advertisements, etc...it's his performance in the debate, Rezco and Sinclair, Foreign affairs experience, etc... that we're looking into.
It is Clinton who had thus far won the larger states.
Her message - no matter how the media try to deter - is clear about the economy and foreign affairs. Two of our biggest problems right now. Problems I don't want my kids to inherit.
All in all, I think what both candidates have done for the Democratic party have been great.  Obama and Clinton have ran superlative campaigns, however between President Clinton's remarks in SC and taking into account the past 11 contests, it is easy to see where Hillary failed.  Obama has spent countless time and money in states that apparently "did not matter"; he gained ground and in many occassions overtook Clinton in "not so key states".  Obama realized the importance of getting his supporters out to vote in smaller states and racked up an amazing and unprecedented delegate lead.  There are only two ways Clinton can catch Obama now, if the superdelegates overule the delagate count and poular vote; or if Obama fouls up astronomically.  Even if Clinton were to lose all four contests today, she will remain in and fight, you have to admire her love for this country.  I just think it's too late.

Obama 08
You are the man Obama. What a class act?

It's time for Clinton to move given her campaign's promise - even though thier promises are always promises not set in stone.........

Case in point is well stated here by Obama's campaign manager..

RE: The Real Meaning of March 4th



Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]



Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]



Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]



New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.” [NYT, 2/22/08]

-------------------------------------------

By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.

There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.

So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.

The Clinton campaign has insisted that this is a race about delegates. And we agree. The tale of March 4th is not who wins what states but where the delegate battle stands after all the delegate yield for all four of these contests have been allocated.
Obama will win the nomination at the convention due to his superior skill at presenting his case logically, intelligently and spiritually.
So did you ever ask and did he ever complete his answers regarding his compaign aide's meeting with the Canadian minister or did you simply ask him whether he needed a pillow?
Give up Hillary and Bill nobody wants you in the White House. Your times are over!!!!!
I am a proud Democrat and am finally happy to see an election that makes people think about what is really going on in our society,  I am also proud to be on Obama's bandwagon and am  disappointed in all the press (SWITCH) from Obama to Clinton these past 3 days, crucial days leading into todays primaries, it's like she whined about poor pitiful her, getting the first question all the time, getting no positive press.  Does NO ONE remember all the scandals in the Clinton administration and that she was PART of some of those scandals, you don't think the republicans have rooms full of stuff they can use against her if she is our nominee???  This race is starting to get ugly using dirty tactics and I must say that Obama really hasn't slipped much at all,  he just keeps responding in a positive way and I think voters will see that.   We need to keep our party together and I am afraid HRC will tear us apart on what could be the most important election in the last 50 years.  Let's UNITE this country, YES WE CAN!!!!
Billary reminds me a team that is getting the snot kick out of them and when they finally score, their fans erroupt as if they have a chance to win. Billary has lost 11 in a row.  If the shoe was on the other foot, the "Talking Heads" would have already pushed Obama out of the race.
I hope Texas and Ohio voters have sense enough to prefer Clinton to Obama. Obama can run in 2016 when he has some experience behind him. Right now his environmental policies are about as progressive as Richard Nixon’s. That’s change???
He is not as new as he wants to appear.

The meat is on the fire right now and the sharp fork with the long handle is piercing in. Soon the meat will be flopped over, charring the other side and that is when Hillary will get out...her long dirty cranky picnic will be over and chef Obama will soon be serving up tasty chunks of nourishing democratic slabs of hot juicy meat and the whole world will cheer as Obama and the American people roll out a whole new and better dream for all citizens of earth.
What is it with changing the rules now?  No way!  You made your choice - stick with it! (Not that it would matter at this point).

go-Go-GO Mr.O-Oh-oh
Obama will not have the popular vote when all is said and done.
To All Dem supporters:

The bottom line is that no matter who picks up TX and OH tonight, neither will have the minimum number of delegates to grab the nomination.

In all likelihood no matter how the state primaries/caucuses play out the nomination will be decided at the convention and not before.  

Also, don't forget about MI and FL.  In the end, the delegates will be seated regardless of how they get there.

Finally, neither will be able to wrap up the nomination without the supers who can choose whoever they want.

BOTH need to stay in the race.  If either drops out, that will prejudice voters in states that have not yet held their primaries/caucuses.  Is this how we want to run a democracy?
Jim in Santa Cruz wrote:

"Obama will win the nomination at the convention due to his superior skill at presenting his case logically, intelligently and spiritually."

More than I can say for most Obama supporters.

I still don't have a clue how he plans to bring this change and what it will cost me.
Mr. Obama, I believe the T R A J E C T O R Y of this race has changed!(to borrow your word to impress your Star Bucks demographic).  As was said earlier, if you lose Ohio, TX, RI, you really should gracefully bow out of this race for the sake of party unity.  Hopefully you and your supporters can see how this statement effects the HC supporters who are just as loyal and determined to have the first woman in the White House.  Thank you God!!!!!  
The media in ohio showed Obama supporters beating 2 men that were holding a Hillary sign, one man that was beaten up was in a wheel chair. Obama supporters intimidate and threaten people to change their vote to Obama.Calling blacks that are voting for Hillary uncle tom. Is that the way he is getting his votes. Dirty tactics.
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Hillary


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