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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Delegate update

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 7:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro

Here is a delegate update...
On the Democratic side in Vermont, NBC News has allocated eight delegates for Obama and five for Clinton with two unallocated as yet.

NBC News Hard Count
Obama 1,202
Clinton 1,042

Note: There are still nine unallocated in Colorado; one Abroad; two in Maryland; one in Hawaii

On the Republican side, McCain has won all 17 delegates in winner-take-all Vermont and at least 58 of 85 in Ohio as of now. This brings McCain even closer to the nomination with 1,107 -- 1,191 is needed.

NBC News Hard Count
McCain 1,005 + 102 (of Romney's delegates) = 1,107
Romney 293
Huckabee 248
Paul 14
Others 7

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Comments

Please stay in the race Hillary, we need to make sure you thoroughly destroy the Democratic party. Nothing will make the GOP happier than Hurricane Hillary tearing through the party state-by-state all the way into Colorado. Then, in one final hoorah, seal the tomb on the Democrats by finding a way to covince the super delegates to coronate your well 'earned' victory. I'm sure all of the bodies you leave in your wake will not keep you up at night - so you'll be well rested for that 3 am phone call.
For all the Obama supporters, whether you like it or not, the Democratic Party requires the nominee of the party to get 2024 (since the death of Rep. Tom Lantos) delegates or more.  It doesn’t matter how many states a particular candidate has won prior to reaching the 2024 number, or by what percent, or how many states a particular candidate has won in a row.

2024 is the REQUIRED number to secure the Democratic nomination, not 2023 or 1194 (the number of Pledged delegates Obama currently has according to MSNBC).  I’m not counting the Unpledged (Super) delegates since they ARE NOT AWARDED UNTIL THE CONVENTION IN AUGUST.

So far, Obama has 1194 Pledged delegates which means he still needs 830 delegates to secure the nomination.

While Senator Clinton still needs 987 delegates to secure the nomination (157 more than Obama), Obama still needs 830.  Even if Obama was awarded every delegate from Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island (370)(which is not going to happen, he would still need 460 delegates to secure the nomination.

Even if Obama received 100% of the delegates moving forward, it would still take him until May 20th with Kentucky to have the 2024 or more delegates required to secure the nomination.  Obama is not going to get 100% of the delegates moving forward.

Even if Obama received 70% of all the remaining delegates in the Primaries and Caucuses, he STILL WOULN’T HAVE THE 2024 DELEGATES REQUIRED TO SECURE THE NOMINATION prior to the convention.

While Hillary Clinton does currently have fewer delegates (157) than Barack Obama, and despite what the Obama supporters think, would like to think, or claim, she is not so far behind that it is mathematically impossible for her to catch up or even get ahead as so many of the Obama supporters keep insisting just because they don’t like Hillary Clinton.

To date, there has not been one person, not one, who has said that it is mathematically impossible at this point for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination, because it is not mathematically impossible.  

Sure there are quite a few people like the Obama supporters that suggest that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race for the good of the Party.  The problem with people who have suggested that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race is that they don’t speak for everyone in the Democratic Party or the ENTIRE country.  They speak for themselves even though they claim that they’re speaking for other people besides themselves using words and phrases like, “everyone I know,” “everyone in the Party,” “everyone in the country,” “all of my friends and family,” and so on.

There are 17 contest left including Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island which is 33% of the total Primaries and Caucuses remaining in this process.  One third of all the states in this country, 1/3, have not had a chance to vote or have THEIR VOICES HEARD and Obama supporters want to talk about what’s fair.  EVERYONE in this country should have the right to decide who the nominees for President of the United States are going to be, not just half of the country or two thirds of the country.

Everyone should have the right to decide.  The Primaries and Caucuses don’t end on March 4th or March 31st or April 15th.  The People in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and Guam have not yet voted and they should have just as much of a right to vote and have a say in who the nominee is going to be, as the people who have already voted and so selfishly think that now that their voices have been heard, the other people in this country don’t or shouldn’t matter.

Obama and his supporters keep preaching about change.  If the kind of change that Obama and his supporters want to see in this country involves some voices in this country being heard (more like the voices that support their position), but not ALL the voices being heard, that’s VERY, VERY SAD!

If you don’t like Hillary Clinton, that’s your right.  If you want to whine and cry about how Obama should be handed the Democratic nomination on a silver platter and not have to WORK for it or EARN EVERY VOTE, that is also your right.

NO ONE, I SAY AGAIN, NO ONE, has the right to prevent registered voters of this country from having the ability to vote and have their voices heard.  

Even if you believe that Barack Obama is the most qualified person to be the next President of the United States, he has to EARN the required number of delegates to secure the nomination (which he has not done) and he has to get the required number of Electors to win the Presidency.  

Having the Democratic nomination and the Presidency handed to anyone on a silver platter just because their supporters want it that way, is not how the process works in our country, maybe in Communist China or some other dictatorship, but not in the United States of America.


HILLARY WILL DESTROY OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN ORDER TO GET THE NOMINATION.  UNDERSTAND THAT.
-----------------------------------------------------
GET OUT THE CACULATOR, hillaryclinton.com .
to What's fair is fair - read John Alter's column on newsweek's website. One person has said one time that it is mathematically impossible for hillary to over take obama in pledged delegates
CNN just did a hypothetical. If Obama wins every single race in the future and tonight by a margin of 65-45, he STILL does not have the necessary votes to lock up the nomination.
I think Obama should drop out if he loses any race tonight.
I really do not care if Obama is in the lead. The so call party for the people. Stating in 2004 that all votes should count = HA HA HA

Only for their own goals.  HEY FLORIDA & MICHIGAN Do you all feel warm and fuzzy - about how the Democractic Party cares for your right to be represented?  Heck they don't even care if you are represented at your party's convention.

GO FIGURE
I will never vote for Obama, if the dem party goes down, it will be his doing not Hillary's.  Had he run the next time around, I may have voted for him.  Now I will never vote for him.  My vote will go to the Rep.
Chuck, Keith, Chris PLEASE READ THIS!!!

The discussion tonight has been focusing on how Obama is somehow losing his coalition from the Potomac Primary. One Problem: They are DIFFERENT STATES. Shouldn't you be talking about the trends in OHIO instead?

Check out the chronilogical Quinnipiac polls for Ohio

October 1, 2007: Clinton 47%, Obama 19%

November 26, 2007: Clinton 45%, Obama 19%

February 6, 2008: Clinton 54%, Obama 34%

February 27, 2008: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%

The apparent truth is that Obama has been hugely effective in building on his coalition in Ohio. Please pay attention to this tonight.
it is beyond me how everyone is attacking hillary for questioning oboma hussein barack lack of experience, which if he wasnt black would not even be questioned, and as far as his christian religion let's be honest he grew up in indonesia, for the first 12 years and has a muslim name , which is the largest muslim country in the world , the church he belongs to supported lewis faracon a muslim who hates jews...but if she dares say anything its racist!!!fortunately for her she has the brains, courage and experience to beat him , but with reporters praising this guy without questioning him on anything that matters, is a disgrace to all of you, ask the real questions which u so easily nail hillary on every little thing!!!
What's with all the drama; "Hillary will destroy the party..."  Obama doesn't have the delegates, and won't get them as long as Hillary stays in the race.  Why should she go for it?  Because America is finally starting to see that Obama is not a bringer of change, but a duplicitous liar that has hoodwinked and bamboozled his followers.

He lies about his campaign financing.  He's gone back on his pledge to take public financing.  He helped Tony Rezco liquidate assets by buying land held by his wife (even though there is no way she could have financed the land purchase), even as Rezco hides assets from his creditors.  He lied about his economic advisor having a meeting in Canada.  He has lied about his positions on Israel.  He helped award grants to a non-profit run by an employee of the PLO terrorist organization, and the list goes on.

This is not a man that should be in the White House.

All you've got on Hillary is Whitewater, for which she was not prosecuted, even after millions of dollars were wasted by the Republican Congress that dogged the Clinton White House for nearly 8 years.  Oh, and she hasn't released her tax returns--something she's not obligated to do.  But she has said she'd release them if she got the nomination.  You want to see her returns so badly?  Vote for her.

Hillary Clinton has been an advocate for children, women, minorities, and the disadvantaged for more than 30 years.  Is she pure?  No.  Is she a saint?  No.  But with Hillary what you see is what you get.  

Obama on the other hand promised he was different.  He promised hope and change.  He promised that he wasn't taking money from lobbyists.  He promised he would accept public financing.

He lied about all of that.  Hope and change was a marketing ploy, and thanks to the Clinton campaign refusing to give in, America is finally finding out what I've known for over a year.  And it's about time.

Initially my support of Clinton (which came after Richardson dropped out), was in opposition to Obama.  But after spending a lot of time examining her record in the Senate, and examining her policies (which in spite of what Barack says, "I agree with Senator Clinton," are very different), I really believe she would be a better President, and Commander in Chief.

So hang in there Hillary.  Your candidacy keeps democracy alive, as opposed to the Obamamites who want a coronation before a dozen states get to vote.  Strangling democracy is not what a campaign should be about, but it's all we seem to hear from Obamamites.  They want Hillary out.  They don't want Michigan and Florida to count (looks like Florida is going to get to vote again).  That's not the America I was raised to believe in.

Take the cultist b.s. and park it where the sun don't shine.  This is still America, at least the last time I checked.
"he has to EARN the required number of delegates to secure the nomination"
-- What's fair is fair

Thanks for your analysis What's fair. You have pointed out that neither candidate will get the required number of delegates via primary votes. And you seem to be saying that superdelegates who commit or pledge now don't count; only the vote at the convention. Please tell me how the candidates EARN the superdelegates at the convention to secure the nomination and in particular how your candidate will EARN those votes at the convention. Just curious.
NOT A PROBLEM LET HILLERY GET IN AND SHE CAN DESTROY WHAT LEFT OF THE COUNTRY THE HER HUSBAND BILL DIDN'T. SHE IS OUT FOR ONE PERSON HERSELF NO ONE ELSE.
*This is in response to "What's fair is fair" recent post*

Obama is going to get 2024/the nomination. Don't get all fussy...take a Xanax.

He leads right now in delegates by more than 100.
He will maintain that lead, if not, a lead from primary to primary.

As anyone can see this is a tight race between Barack and Hill.  

Hill was smashing him from the beginning, Barack closed the gap, and has walked away with more states and delegates than anyone would have imagined.  He is a threat, that I'm sure, Hill's campaign did not expect.  After 12 states in a row they have perfect reason to be nervous that the delegate count won't shake out in their favor.  The states she does win is not by an overwhelming amount.

Barack Obama deserves this nomination - he has worked hard to get here and will continue to work hard till he clinches it.  He got my vote today.
Hillary Clinton's "experience" as an elected representative of the American people is almost equal to Barack Obama's.  She didn't represent anyone as first lady, either in Arkansas or Washington.  She uses the reflected light of her husband to claim 35 years of experience.

Neither has any experience which would transfer to being "Commander-in-Chief" of our military machine.  Actually, no civilian does have any comperable experience.  What is needed is common sense and an ability to accept advice from those who are selected as military laison, along with the Chief of Staff from the military services.

Obama has fought the fight in Chicago politics which is a difficult battle for anyone.  The "machine"  which runs democratic politics is as good a training ground as any in our nation.

Hillary did fight in the trenches of New York politics.  She moved out of Arkansas to Washington to New York to be elected in a state which would look better than a candidate from Arkansas.  Or, why didn't she run there.
Bill Clinton may have had an overwhelming show of support at some appearances.  However, that was not the case for every place he visited.  In Edinburg, Texas Bill made a presentation that attracted at most 300 supporters.  This is suprising since the Rio Grande Valley has strong roots with the Clinton family.  The 300 or so supporters were nothing compared to the almost 4,000 Obama supporters that met on the same college campus as Bill earlier last week.  In addition, Hilary's turnout, in Hidalgo, was unexpectedly low.  They had to bus in high school students from outside cities that were 30 minutes away, just to show a presence at the stadium several weeks ago.  It will be interesting to see how the primary will go in Texas.
Unbeknowst to many of you, all delegates are not obligated to vote for their state's overall choice.  
There is still hope.
Many of us are delegates from "McCain, Romney, or Huckabee" states and we are going all the way to the Twin Cities to vote for Ron Paul.
Up the Revolution. Take back Your America!  
From the desk of:

Mark Poison Penn.

Breaking News. Stop the presses.

Our new campaign talking point will be:

It Takes A Clinton To Raze A Village, in Order To Capture It.
One way or the other we are going to have a dem representing us. The question isn't who is the most popular, but who is able to go against karl rove. Let's face it, that is what the dems are really up against. Can Obamma really beat Rove and the evangelicals? Can Hillary? As a wise irishman once said, " brace yourself Bridgett, its going to be a rough ride.'May the best dem win.  
One way or the other we are going to have a dem representing us. The question isn't who is the most popular, but who is able to go against karl rove. Let's face it, that is what the dems are really up against. Can Obamma really beat Rove and the evangelicals? Can Hillary? As a wise irishman once said, " brace yourself Bridgett, its going to be a rough ride.'May the best dem win.  


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