ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Exit polls: Why Obama won VT

Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 7:39 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
Vermont is one of the most liberal states and anti-war states in the country. The Obama campaign believes it can net more delegates out of Vermont, than if Hillary Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas, because of potential margin of victory. So this win for Obama is significant. We’ll see later how those delegates are allocated.

In Vermont, as in the other states today, the economy was the No. 1 issue. Also interesting to note here: the war in Iraq -- it ranks higher (second with 38%) here than we've seen in any other primary state. Healthcare came in third with 19%.

Why? According to the Deptartment of Defense, Vermont has suffered the highest per capita rate of causalities in Iraq. And for those voters who considered Iraq the most important issue, Obama took those voters 3-to-1.

Another area where Obama scored well: Voters thought he is best suited to fill the position of Commander-In-Chief: Obama 51%, Clinton 42%.

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

Please stay in the race Hillary, we need to make sure you thoroughly destroy the Democratic party. Nothing will make the GOP happier than Hurricane Hillary tearing through the party state-by-state all the way into Colorado. Then, in one final hoorah, seal the tomb on the Democrats by finding a way to convince the super delegates to coronate your well 'earned' victory. I'm sure all of the bodies you leave in your wake will not keep you up at night - so you'll be well rested for that 3 am phone call.
For all the Obama supporters, whether you like it or not, the Democratic Party requires the nominee of the party to get 2024 (since the death of Rep. Tom Lantos) delegates or more.  It doesn’t matter how many states a particular candidate has won prior to reaching the 2024 number, or by what percent, or how many states a particular candidate has won in a row.

2024 is the REQUIRED number to secure the Democratic nomination, not 2023 or 1194 (the number of Pledged delegates Obama currently has according to MSNBC).  I’m not counting the Unpledged (Super) delegates since they ARE NOT AWARDED UNTIL THE CONVENTION IN AUGUST.

So far, Obama has 1194 Pledged delegates which means he still needs 830 delegates to secure the nomination.

While Senator Clinton still needs 987 delegates to secure the nomination (157 more than Obama), Obama still needs 830.  Even if Obama was awarded every delegate from Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island (370)(which is not going to happen, he would still need 460 delegates to secure the nomination.

Even if Obama received 100% of the delegates moving forward, it would still take him until May 20th with Kentucky to have the 2024 or more delegates required to secure the nomination.  Obama is not going to get 100% of the delegates moving forward.

Even if Obama received 70% of all the remaining delegates in the Primaries and Caucuses, he STILL WOULN’T HAVE THE 2024 DELEGATES REQUIRED TO SECURE THE NOMINATION prior to the convention.

While Hillary Clinton does currently have fewer delegates (157) than Barack Obama, and despite what the Obama supporters think, would like to think, or claim, she is not so far behind that it is mathematically impossible for her to catch up or even get ahead as so many of the Obama supporters keep insisting just because they don’t like Hillary Clinton.

To date, there has not been one person, not one, who has said that it is mathematically impossible at this point for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination, because it is not mathematically impossible.  

Sure there are quite a few people like the Obama supporters that suggest that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race for the good of the Party.  The problem with people who have suggested that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race is that they don’t speak for everyone in the Democratic Party or the ENTIRE country.  They speak for themselves even though they claim that they’re speaking for other people besides themselves using words and phrases like, “everyone I know,” “everyone in the Party,” “everyone in the country,” “all of my friends and family,” and so on.

There are 17 contest left including Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island which is 33% of the total Primaries and Caucuses remaining in this process.  One third of all the states in this country, 1/3, have not had a chance to vote or have THEIR VOICES HEARD and Obama supporters want to talk about what’s fair.  EVERYONE in this country should have the right to decide who the nominees for President of the United States are going to be, not just half of the country or two thirds of the country.

Everyone should have the right to decide.  The Primaries and Caucuses don’t end on March 4th or March 31st or April 15th.  The People in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and Guam have not yet voted and they should have just as much of a right to vote and have a say in who the nominee is going to be, as the people who have already voted and so selfishly think that now that their voices have been heard, the other people in this country don’t or shouldn’t matter.

Obama and his supporters keep preaching about change.  If the kind of change that Obama and his supporters want to see in this country involves some voices in this country being heard (more like the voices that support their position), but not ALL the voices being heard, that’s VERY, VERY SAD!

If you don’t like Hillary Clinton, that’s your right.  If you want to whine and cry about how Obama should be handed the Democratic nomination on a silver platter and not have to WORK for it or EARN EVERY VOTE, that is also your right.

NO ONE, I SAY AGAIN, NO ONE, has the right to prevent registered voters of this country from having the ability to vote and have their voices heard.  

Even if you believe that Barack Obama is the most qualified person to be the next President of the United States, he has to EARN the required number of delegates to secure the nomination (which he has not done) and he has to get the required number of Electors to win the Presidency.  

Having the Democratic nomination and the Presidency handed to anyone on a silver platter just because their supporters want it that way, is not how the process works in our country, maybe in Communist China or some other dictatorship, but not in the United States of America.


Having lived in VT for several years, saying it's the most liberal state is ridiculous.  They have a Republican governor.  The state is fairly split between rural, conservative folks vs in the cities where there are more newcomers who tend to be progressives.  What you can probably say fairly is that VT liberals are further to the left than Democrats in many other states.  However, overall, clearly MA is the most liberal state in the country.
Obama is the man he is best for america.
hillary is bad
Go Obama!  Excellente!
if hillary is elected then it would sound weird.
First man instead of first lady.  Ladies should not really get into politics
There is still time to caucus for Hillary in Texas.
yyyaaaayyyyy boooooyyyyyy!!!!!!
wow !!! hillaryclinton.com .
I tell you why ,Obama won Vermont, it's because Hillary didn't. now check it out hillaryclinton.com .
On coverage tonight, everyone keeps referring to "white ethnic" voters.  I have never heard this term before.  What does it mean?
Seems Chris obama Matthews and the rest of his fellow announcers wants Hilliary to drop out of the race. Why should obama face 1000 cuts in PA?

If obama cant stand up to the scrutiny then he should drop out of the race. The republicans already have the ammo they need for the fall so why should PA be like FLA and NOT COUNT CHRIS ????

Your MSN and MSNBC are so anti woman,anti Clinton, and anti centrist that you should be forced to admit you are on obama's campaign staff from day 1.
I live in Cincinnati. Republicans are telling Republican voters at the polls and on Bill Cunningham's radio show to get a Democratic Ballot and vote for Hillary to make the fight go on and cost the Democrats money and votes in November.

In Cincinnati alone over 65% of republican voters voted Democrat.
Hopefully, you will post how those VT delegates are allocated soon. If not, when might those details be available?
A relative dying does tend to focus you. If only people could put themselves in the shoes of the Iraqis we would be ashamed of the deaths and harm we have caused to those poor people. For what?
congratulation to Mr. Obama, Kept on winning the game almost over...
What is going on with the Democratic primary?  Are men just too afraid to vote for Hillary??? She may not represent what you want and desire physically or emotionally but if you are a Democrat or even a Moderate you must know that she is you "knows and care about" the plight of the working class - not middle class or anything beyond but those of us who are now the working poor.  Give her a break - who is Barac anyway?? nothing against him, but, we don't  know anything  about him except his flowery speeches and the same ideas that Hillary has promoted for decades.  
Those C-in-C numbers are interesting.

It will be worth watching to see if the numbers are inflated in Vermont due to the anti-war sentiment, or if similar numbers hold in the other primaries.

If Obama bests Clinton in TX in the C-in-C question, Obama will likely be the Lone Star in the Lone Star state.
Maple syrup with my pancakes tomorrow!  Thanks, Vermont!
Chuck, Keith, Chris PLEASE READ THIS!!!

The discussion tonight has been focusing on how Obama is somehow losing his coalition from the Potomac Primary. One Problem: They are DIFFERENT STATES. Shouldn't you be talking about the trends in OHIO instead?

Check out the chronilogical Quinnipiac polls for Ohio

October 1, 2007: Clinton 47%, Obama 19%

November 26, 2007: Clinton 45%, Obama 19%

February 6, 2008: Clinton 54%, Obama 34%

February 27, 2008: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%

The apparent truth is that Obama has been hugely effective in building on his coalition in Ohio. Please pay attention to this tonight.
He also did well because his last name is not Clinton!
cause Hillary didn't stuppid.
It's simple really. Obama wins on NAFTA, Mandatory Health Insurance, and Iraq. Hillary can't outflank him it's too late. He has her surrounded and her 'brilliant' campaign manager who came highly recomended by that great political intellect, Tommy V., didn't even see it comming.
LOOKIE HERE  hillaryclinton.com .
REPUBLICAN ALERT!

Please DO NOT by fooled by all the recent neocon rhetoric about sending a message to John McCain by cross voting for Hill.  Neocon bobble heads like Russssh Limbratt and Loyal Ingrump should be ashamed of themselves for participating in this type of immature political theater.  John may not be the perfect Republican candidate, but he’s FAR BETTER than the other two Dem candidates.  The bottom line is the C-Machine would be a lot harder to beat in the General Election than NObama.  The C-Machine does not—I REPEAT—does not play by the rules.  Hence, making it a lot more difficult to beat them in a Gen Election showdown. As a McCain supporter ... I SAY GOOOO NOBAMA!    

Believe it or not, this is an underhanded attempt by the neocons to get the "Washington Insider" the Dem nomination.  And we all know who that is.  

I’m telling you … the POLITICAL ELITES of this nation have NOTHING TO DO with party affiliation.  The elites from each party play beautifully off one another.  Unfortunately, to them it’s all just a big game.  Of course you’ll never hear them say or admit that it’s all just a game.  

Just remember one thing; the oldest trick in the book when it comes to politics and/or elections is this:

DIVIDE AND CONQUER!  

Divide at ANY cost.  Use scare tactics!  Make people afraid of the opponent—whoever that may be.  Please, don’t be FOOLED or SUCKERED in by all the fear mongering.  Stay above all the spin rhetoric and vote your conscience.  Just vote for the person you believe in your heart to be the BEST OF THE THREE REMAINING FRONTRUNNERS.  

The saddest thing about all this fear mongering stuff—BOTH PARTIES are guilty of it.

SAD!  SAD!! SAD!!!

 
When Obama talks to the crowd, why doesn't he make eye contact? What is he hiding?
Because they have turned into one of most left wigned states in the country.  And eveyone knows Obama is way left of Hillary.
When George Bush was running for President, His slogan was 'Change', 'Faith', 'hope' and 'integrity'....same as Obama. Where are we right now???. How can American people believe that Obama, a man with no experience can turn around this country. Have we lost our minds.
Let's hope Vermont speaks for the other state this Tuesday. Obama is the only REAL hope this country has to address the problems we face. Its not about your experience being First Lady during someone else's administration. its about judgement. If she knew so much about what was going in the Clinton White House, why didn't Hillary know about Monica? I guess there were some things she had to learn the hard way.
He is the best suited to be Commander in Chief. Why?  Because good judgement ALWAYS trumps experience.  

That comes from a retired naval officer who has been in many leadership positions and who has dealt for many years with the chain of command all the way to the president.  

By the way, experience is not realized until your actually under the load.  Neither Obama nor Clinton has the experience.  But, Obama definitely has the correct judgement.

He is the best suited to be Commander in Chief. Why?  Because good judgement ALWAYS trumps experience.  

That comes from a retired naval officer who has been in many leadership positions and who has dealt for many years with the chain of command all the way to the president.  

By the way, experience is not realized until your actually under the load.  Neither Obama nor Clinton has the experience.  But, Obama definitely has the correct judgement.

Just remember folks to take down the other worthless congressional idiots on the ballot too. Barrack is going to need the right help when he gets in!
Look out Hillary. Barrack's going to 'bam ya!
Another landslide in VT...just count the beans Barack, just count the beans....

The fat lady is warming up, but will she sing?....oooh, it's Hillary!!!

Why doesn't Senator Hillary Clinton go ahead and join the Republican party, since she is so intent on helping them win the general election? Is she sincere about wanting to help America?
Oh! I know why, they were influenced by the media and drinking the kool-who knows with what in it; went for the vote on the war, what vote? He was not there to vote, how stupid that is? And he has flip on ending the war go back and hear what he said yesterday.
That is what drinking the kool-aid does to your mind
folks!!!!!!!!!!!
Wise choice, Vermont. There is more to Obama, than 16 yeats of experience as First Lady of Arkansas and First Lady of the U.S. We as a nation are much better than she is. We have serious issues confronting us at home and all she and McCain can do is to put fear into everything. I don't want to have to look at every country as a potential threat. The entire world is looking at us. I have heard doublespeak from Ms. Clinton who initially didn't "denounce or reject" a supporter who expressed a bias opinion of Senior Obama because of her beliefs. Sen. Clinton appeared to sidestep the thrust of her supporter's statement. Funny, that story wasn't widely repeated in the media. In fact, there seems to be a lovefest for HRC. No matter, the people of Vermont saw through the mess and voted for the future-needed change. Thank you
Oh! I know why, they were influenced by the media and drinking the kool-who knows with what in it; went for the vote on the war, what vote? He was not there to vote, how stupid that is? And he has flip on ending the war go back and hear what he said yesterday.
That is what drinking the kool-aid does to your mind
folks!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama won Vermont due to a landslide of tv and radio ads which began long before Clinton had a presence here. Name recognition and feel good ads gave him his victory. Guess you can buy change!
Fellow Christians, we will let the liberals have their way this time and we will see them fail.  Then we can finally vote them out for good, and get a true Christian into the White House (not a pseudo one like Romney) and we will win Congress and we can finally outlaw homosexuality and abortion as God intended.  True Christians, it is your duty to fight the homo agenda and the killing of millions of innocents.  Our troubles in the U.S. our faltering economy, our natural disasters, our dead solders, can be traced to our moral failings as a nation.  God is not happy.  We will not be blessed until we unite as Christians and take control.  95 percent of this country is Christian.  When we all wake up we will succeed as a nation.  We will stamp out homos and make Muslims think twice.  It's inevitable.  Liberal freaks Obama or McCain will be president and God will show his anger for four years.  We will be attacked on our soil.  We will have great disasters in our cities.  Our economy will dip to new lows.  But four years from now when we MUST take back this country to conservative values, we will see who is right.  God will reward us fellow Christians!  Stay strong.  Ask me about my dead son, indeed!
Ha you did not like my comments right?  Well now we have stopped Osama did you see the results?  Ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha all the way to November!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Madam President Hillary
No comments yet ?  LIARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=730050

First Read e-mail alerts


Sign up for First Read alerts
The first place for key political news and analysis

Syndicate This Site

Add First Read to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google