Chuck, Keith, Chris PLEASE READ THIS!!!

The discussion tonight has been focusing on how Obama is somehow losing his coalition from the Potomac Primary. One Problem: They are DIFFERENT STATES. Shouldn't you be talking about the trends in OHIO instead?

Check out the chronilogical Quinnipiac polls for Ohio

October 1, 2007: Clinton 47%, Obama 19%

November 26, 2007: Clinton 45%, Obama 19%

February 6, 2008: Clinton 54%, Obama 34%

February 27, 2008: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%

The apparent truth is that Obama has been hugely effective in building on his coalition in Ohio. Please pay attention to this tonight.

Great Point Matt!

Imagine that, people are coming out in droves because they have a chance to vote for someone other than an older white male.

H I L L A R Y C L I N T O N . C O M .

One thing that very much worries me about the exit polls is that over 1/2 of the people of ohio would only be satisfied with one or the other candidate.  This does not bode well for the dems this november, which is sad because its their election to lose...

hillary - please just shut up and get out of the way.  the people don't want you.  you are hurting the party that you are supposed to support.  you are also embarrassing yourself and your questionable-at-best husband.  a woman for president is a great idea, but you are not that woman and you never will be.  please go away and let us have a chance at electing a democratic president.  please.  pretty please - go away.

Greta point, Matt. They are talking as though Obama has washed out and Clinton has won everything by big margins. That remains to be seen.

I watch MSNBC  because you have the smartest people when it comes to election results. The exception is who ever hired Ken Blackwell...that man does not belong across a desk from Chris Matthews. I lived and voted in Ohio long enough to be an expert on that.

Great point, Matt. They are talking as though Obama has washed out and Clinton has won everything by big margins. That remains to be seen.

For all the Obama supporters, whether you like it or not, the Democratic Party requires the nominee of the party to get 2024 (since the death of Rep. Tom Lantos) delegates or more.  It doesn’t matter how many states a particular candidate has won prior to reaching the 2024 number, or by what percent, or how many states a particular candidate has won in a row.

2024 is the REQUIRED number to secure the Democratic nomination, not 2023 or 1194 (the number of Pledged delegates Obama currently has according to MSNBC).  I’m not counting the Unpledged (Super) delegates since they ARE NOT AWARDED UNTIL THE CONVENTION IN AUGUST.

So far, Obama has 1194 Pledged delegates which means he still needs 830 delegates to secure the nomination.

While Senator Clinton still needs 987 delegates to secure the nomination (157 more than Obama), Obama still needs 830.  Even if Obama was awarded every delegate from Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island (370)(which is not going to happen, he would still need 460 delegates to secure the nomination.

Even if Obama received 100% of the delegates moving forward, it would still take him until May 20th with Kentucky to have the 2024 or more delegates required to secure the nomination.  Obama is not going to get 100% of the delegates moving forward.

Even if Obama received 70% of all the remaining delegates in the Primaries and Caucuses, he STILL WOULN’T HAVE THE 2024 DELEGATES REQUIRED TO SECURE THE NOMINATION prior to the convention.

While Hillary Clinton does currently have fewer delegates (157) than Barack Obama, and despite what the Obama supporters think, would like to think, or claim, she is not so far behind that it is mathematically impossible for her to catch up or even get ahead as so many of the Obama supporters keep insisting just because they don’t like Hillary Clinton.

To date, there has not been one person, not one, who has said that it is mathematically impossible at this point for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination, because it is not mathematically impossible.  

Sure there are quite a few people like the Obama supporters that suggest that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race for the good of the Party.  The problem with people who have suggested that Hillary Clinton should get out of the race is that they don’t speak for everyone in the Democratic Party or the ENTIRE country.  They speak for themselves even though they claim that they’re speaking for other people besides themselves using words and phrases like, “everyone I know,” “everyone in the Party,” “everyone in the country,” “all of my friends and family,” and so on.

There are 17 contest left including Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island which is 33% of the total Primaries and Caucuses remaining in this process.  One third of all the states in this country, 1/3, have not had a chance to vote or have THEIR VOICES HEARD and Obama supporters want to talk about what’s fair.  EVERYONE in this country should have the right to decide who the nominees for President of the United States are going to be, not just half of the country or two thirds of the country.

Everyone should have the right to decide.  The Primaries and Caucuses don’t end on March 4th or March 31st or April 15th.  The People in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and Guam have not yet voted and they should have just as much of a right to vote and have a say in who the nominee is going to be, as the people who have already voted and so selfishly think that now that their voices have been heard, the other people in this country don’t or shouldn’t matter.

Obama and his supporters keep preaching about change.  If the kind of change that Obama and his supporters want to see in this country involves some voices in this country being heard (more like the voices that support their position), but not ALL the voices being heard, that’s VERY, VERY SAD!

If you don’t like Hillary Clinton, that’s your right.  If you want to whine and cry about how Obama should be handed the Democratic nomination on a silver platter and not have to WORK for it or EARN EVERY VOTE, that is also your right.

NO ONE, I SAY AGAIN, NO ONE, has the right to prevent registered voters of this country from having the ability to vote and have their voices heard.  

Even if you believe that Barack Obama is the most qualified person to be the next President of the United States, he has to EARN the required number of delegates to secure the nomination (which he has not done) and he has to get the required number of Electors to win the Presidency.  

Having the Democratic nomination and the Presidency handed to anyone on a silver platter just because their supporters want it that way, is not how the process works in our country, maybe in Communist China or some other dictatorship, but not in the United States of America.

Why are you showing the results  predicting a winner in Texas when they still have to caucas tonight?  Also you are already predicting a winner in Ohio when several areas have extended the voting time due to weather.  I think you are trying to do what happened in the presidental race & make people stay home!!

Two weeks ago, these were suppose to be her states and now they are too close to call.  Why is this now a big win?  This is a delegate race not a popular vote race.

Maybe OBama wants them to keep the polls open all night in Texas....like they are doing in Ohio for him. (Obama filed a request in Ohio to keep some of the polls open later)
 
Just saw a survey about MSNBC/NBC, they had 80%
favorable coverage for Obama for 2 straights months.  

MSNBC/NBC needs to change their name to Obama Network.

Early voting totals are available for some counties on Secretary of State website in Texas.

In Dallas County (large black population), Obama leads Clinton 2-to-1 among early voters. In Fort Bend County (also a large black population), he leads by more than 2-to-1. In Nueces (large Hispanic population), Clinton lead Obama by 2-to-1 among early voters. In Willimson County (about 70% non-Hispanic white), Obama is up by about 3-to-2 on Clinton.

REPUBLICAN ALERT!

Please DO NOT by fooled by all the recent neocon rhetoric about sending a message to John McCain by cross voting for Hill.  Neocon bobble heads like Russssh Limbratt and Loyal Ingrump should be ashamed of themselves for participating in this type of immature political theater.  John may not be the perfect Republican candidate, but he’s FAR BETTER than the other two Dem candidates.  The bottom line is the C-Machine would be a lot harder to beat in the General Election than NObama.  The C-Machine does not—I REPEAT—does not play by the rules.  Hence, making it a lot more difficult to beat them in a Gen Election showdown. As a McCain supporter ... I SAY GOOOO NOBAMA!    

Believe it or not, this is an underhanded attempt by the neocons to get the "Washington Insider" the Dem nomination.  And we all know who that is.  

I’m telling you … the POLITICAL ELITES of this nation have NOTHING TO DO with party affiliation.  The elites from each party play beautifully off one another.  Unfortunately, to them it’s all just a big game.  Of course you’ll never hear them say or admit that it’s all just a game.  

Just remember one thing; the oldest trick in the book when it comes to politics and/or elections is this:

DIVIDE AND CONQUER!  

Divide at ANY cost.  Use scare tactics!  Make people afraid of the opponent—whoever that may be.  Please, don’t be FOOLED or SUCKERED in by all the fear mongering.  Stay above all the spin rhetoric and vote your conscience.  Just vote for the person you believe in your heart to be the BEST OF THE THREE REMAINING FRONTRUNNERS.  

The saddest thing about all this fear mongering stuff—BOTH PARTIES are guilty of it.

SAD!  SAD!! SAD!!!

 

Chuck, Keith, Chris PLEASE READ THIS!!!

The discussion tonight has been focusing on how Obama is somehow losing his coalition from the Potomac Primary. One Problem: They are DIFFERENT STATES. Shouldn't you be talking about the trends in OHIO instead?

Check out the chronilogical Quinnipiac polls for Ohio

October 1, 2007: Clinton 47%, Obama 19%

November 26, 2007: Clinton 45%, Obama 19%

February 6, 2008: Clinton 54%, Obama 34%

February 27, 2008: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%

The apparent truth is that Obama has been hugely effective in building on his coalition in Ohio. Please pay attention to this tonight.

Matt Robb (Sent Tuesday, March 04, 2008 8:17 PM)

......................................................

I completely agree with U Matt... But U know what, it's not just MSNBC's fault. It's the MSM in general! Of course, with a little help from the Clinton spin masters.

Oh, btw...

OBAMA '08

How is it possible that 1% of the Texas vote is in if the polls haven't closed yet?

Why are we not seeing anyone from the Obama campaign?

Chuck,

Could you break out some numbers on evangelical voters among the DEMOCRATS? I realize Catholic voters trend toward Senator Clinton. But I'd very much like to see if the numbers among self-identified evangelicals voting Democratic trend toward Obama. As one of them myself, I suspect they do!

It sure would be great if democrats could take back the Texas legislature and undo damage done by Tom Delay.

Why is MSNBC showing the TX count before the polls close?

I want to know if anyone has considered the impact of Republican turnout voting for Obama that will return to their conservative practices in the general election, as a Virginia voter I have become concerned over the number of Republican voters who openly admit they voted for Obama out of disdain for Clinton but will be voting for McCain come the general election.  And to now see it openly but briefly discussed by the media makes me feel it is more of an issue for us Democrats than is being discussed.  And to have Rush telling the Republicans to switch to voting for Clinton even though they hate her seems to raise all the more concern.

All the hyperbole in the world will not save Senator Clintons bid for the nomination.  Anything less than her withdrawal after tonight will be looked upon as a vanity run and superbly bad for the Democratic party.

you guys that scan these postings are pretty lame by the way - what's the use in encouraging people to post when you have all these delays and hardly post any comments anyway?

It ain't over until the rather large human sings.....
Hillary's last stand may be soon.  I just heard that the caususes are favoring Obama....  Maybe her negative ads hurt her FINALLY!

Obama 08

This evening will prove to the people of America that when Hillary fights, she wins. Obama has run his course. Ohio is at this moment 60% Clinton. Texas will speak it's position in the next few hours and you can believe it will be Hillary.

Matt Robb, I think a significant part of the percentage of votes gained for Obama comes from the fact that the other candidates have dropped out along the way and he picked up some of them, as well as some undecideds.  It doesn't really reflect so much that he is taking away her base.  

Lots of "New" Voters in Texas huh?

Yeah, Illegal Aliens, they will Vote Socialist 'cause they don't have to pay the Taxes to pay for the Commie programs.

Matt, it doesn't matter, the fix is in. Corporate news wants this contest to continue even if it puts another republican in the white house.

In the democratic party there are 3 deciders now:
pledged delegates, super delegates & media delegates.

Matt:  That's exactly the point.  Obama has closed at least 20 pt. gaps in both Texas and Ohio.  That is incredible momentum on his part.  I have to acknowledge that Hillary's mud slinging over the past week has somewhat slowed Barack's momentum and may not allow him to take Ohio.  Still, things look good in Texas and looking for that silver lining, one could posit that Hillary's attempt at savaging Obama will only make him stronger for the general.

The other thing to remember is that it is impossible to superficially compare the demographics of one state to another since the micro-environments and cultures are remarkably dissimilar.  I never thought that Obama would win Ohio and I am surprised that he will do as well as he is expected (I predict that Hillary will win Ohio by only 3 pts.).

What is absolutely confounding is the team-Hillary claim that winning a primary in a state (be it blue, red, or purple) has anything to do with winning these respective states in November.  Obama will win all of the blue states (as would she) but he has a better chance in purple and some red states in November.  This has important implications for the Congressional races as well as the presidential election.  

I have to laugh when Hillary lays claim to New York and New Jersey as evidence of her popularity; after all, these states are her home court advantage.  The only reason that she won California (and the bizzare Florida primary) is that early voting started in December (before the Iowa caucuses determined the tone of the primary season) In fact, Obama won both contests when considering only votes cast on the actual days of the primary (February 5th and January 29th respectively).

The Hillary campaign continues its 'used car salesman' approach to politics; they will try manipulate and distort any facts to their
advantage - I guess it all depends on what the definition of is, is.  This is exactly what Obama is trying to change.

I predict an Ohio/Texas split (with Obama winning more delegates in both states).  Pressure will mount on Hillary to pull out as of tomorrow.
Obama '08

Keith please ask Chris,Joe what dimension do they live in thinking McCain could win NY NJ CA

Chris: it's time you became impartial as your supposed to be.  We do not need to hear you idolize old man McCain on a nightly basis.  Your prejudice is showing right along with T. Russert.

I know a lot of Texas Republicans are voting for Hillary in the primary because she is easier to defeat than Obama.  There are not a lot of 'new Democrats' in Texas, just a lot of nervous Republicans.

Let's hope that the new voters will carry the day for Obama.  As the March 4th primaries came nearer, we were able to see the only kind of campaign that Hillary can win.  Negative, negative, negative.  This won't attract independents to vote for her in November.

The lampooning of Obama's ability to inspire has really disgusted me, a lifelong Democrat.  How would we have emerged from the Great Depression or made the sacrifices necessary during WWII if FDR couldn't turn a phrase?  What if JFK hadn't inspired people to join the Peace Corps?  We face a lot of very serious problems, and a little inspiration might be needed to overcome them.

The republican's are setting their agenda. While the democrats are pussy footing with Hillary's ego! The math say's it's over, the democrats need to get the Clinton's in check. Bill's legacy won't be worth crap!
But maybe Hillary feels the same way about Bill's legacy as she feels about the democratic party.

Send an intern to the dollar store for a calculator!
Your election results show 2% in ..in TX and that's nearly a million votes.

Can their realy be 50 million dem. voters in a single statr

Just got back from the caucus in our neighborhood.  We live in Grayson County.  70 miles north of Dallas on the Oklahoma border.  My guess is that it was 5 to 1 for Obama.  They had to open new lines for him while the Clinton line closed early.

sorry obama, it was good for some time, but that's it.
congratulations Hilary.

Ok so for all the Obama supporters that don't believe that Hillary Clinton's supporters will not support Obama, Paul Begala who serves as a political contributor and Democratic strategist on CNN's The Situation Room, tonight said that the Pew Research Center has just conducted a servey of Hillary Clinton supporters and Barack Obama supporters.

The survey asked Hillary Clinton supporters if they would vote for Barack Obama if Clinton didn't get the nomination and 25% said they WOULD NOT SUPPORT OBAMA.

While less than 10% of Obama's supporters said they wouldn't support Clinton if she got the nomination.

Paul Bagala said that that's already too high of number against Obama.  He said this early on, he fears that the number will continue to grow, and if that happens it would be very bad for Obama, because Obama can't win the general election with 25% or more of Hillary Clinton's supporters not supporting him, Bagala said.

The number of Clinton supporters that refuse to support Obama will continue to grow and Obama won't stand a chance.

Gentleman, how come you are not reporting on HOW much Mr Obama has narrowed the gap in Ohio and Texas. That is the story and Mrs Clinton's dirty politics.

Yes, Hillary and her gang have been stating all along that 'you just wait--we'll win in the big states: Ohio and Texas'...and we were all supposed to ignore the 11 contests in between supertuesday and minituesday.

Well, at the time they started saying this, HRC did look solid in OH and TX.  Obama's campaign has severly cut into the strong lead she had.  That is a success--not "buyer's remorse".

(And by the way, "buyer's remorse" doesn't even make sense if you're not talking about the same buyer--not a bunch of different buyers that don't know each other.)

JUST got home from a precint caucus vote in Texas (10:25pm CST). Really big turnout for a change. Alot of Dems in Tx have almost quit voting in previous years because we have been so Republican heavy.

Also, I really question exit polls. We certainly didn't see anyone asking. The voter registration card does have an age column, but it's usually "U"ndeclared. The birth date is there.

I don't fit in the usual categories - nor do my relatives. All white, male and female, different ages, educations -- ALL voting Obama.

I sooooo wish Hillary would put her ego aside and allow Obama to go forward.

In Williamson county just north of Austin, the joke is there are three Democrats living there,(there are no Democrats in office there and few run). Tonight they came close to running out of Democratic ballots. The majority of Republicans crossed voted in that county. There are no new Democrats in Williamson County. Hillary will win the majority vote there tonight. She will get three votes there come Nov. and not many more in the state of TX.

Hillary is claiming a victory tonight but she barely picked up any delegates. The Clinton campaign has a clear plan now: Keep it close and try to convince the Superdelegates to hijack the nomination from the people. This is a sad day for the democratic party.

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