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Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Exit polls: Why Clinton won Ohio

Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2008 12:49 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
Hillary Clinton's win in Ohio was shouldered on the strength of her core constituencies: women, whites, labor, seniors, and she narrowed the gap in groups that had been strong for Barack Obama.

Let's take a closer look at the white vote. Overall, she won a solid victory among whites. Clinton took 65% of the vote to Obama's 33%.

As in other contests Obama won the black vote by a wide margin (86%-14%). But remember, blacks make up only 19% of the Democratic electorate, so the white vote was key for Clinton.

The generation gap among whites starts at a younger point than we've seen elsewhere. Only the under-30 groups broke for Obama (49%-46%). And as you can see, it was a far narrower gap than we have seen in other contests. All of the other age groups among whites went for Clinton (ages 30-44, 62%-38%; ages 45-64, 68%-29%; ages 65+, 74%-23%).

There was more of a split among whites by education. Those without college educations going overwhelmingly for Clinton with 71% of the vote. The numbers were closer for those with a college education -- where Clinton won by 54% to Obama's 43%.

Clinton regained her lead among the "white working class" -- those who make less than $50,000 (69%-28%). She also won among whites, who make more than $50,000 (61%-37%).

Clinton also showed her strength in other areas: She won the late deciders; she won among union households; she was seen as best qualified to be Commander-In-Chief, and she was seen as the candidate with the best chance of winning in the fall.

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I see that the instant gratification crowd is a little unhappy today, told ya not to count your chickens before they hatch.
Senator Obamas problem is that he felt that later voters would be swayed by his earlier rethoric, We have heard it all already, the same speeches that were inspiring are now, at this later date, old tired and repetitive.
While The Clinton campaign has switched up, changed focus and talked to voters, The Obama campaign has relied on the simple, now less effective, same old inspirational speeches.
A campaign that does not develop a change in message as the process goes on will slowly bleed out.
Tit for tat? Do you mean you are now going to go 'negative', well the media will love that, we won't, go ahead, see where that gets you.
I think that the voters in Ohio and Texas want to pick the candidate instead of letting the media pick for them, when the media gets on the band wagon, we stop and take a harder look.
I now understand why Obama supporters want to wrap this up quickly, they don't want harder questions to come, they don't want the rest of us to take a real good look at their candidate. Well the longer process will change the dynamics, get used to it, this ain't over yet. Democrats are going to pick their candidate, not independents.
I can not believe how bias the media is against Hillary, msnbc is leading all the network in bashing Hillary every chance they get.Keith orbermann is leading the way, follow by Chris Matthews, these two pundits are really going after her with a vengeance. the only person defending Hillary is Dan Abrams, I always watch msnbc, now will only watch when Abrams is on. finally the american people are beginning to realize that Obama is an empty suit, we need some one who will find  solutions to our problems, not by making nice speeches. like John Kennedy said "it's not how you can "speak" to the country is how you can find solutions to the country problems". wake up America!!!
People finally see that Obama is a flip flopper. Hillary is the only candidate that will offer positive change to America and who can beat McCain. Obama says that Hillary has gone negative, that is not negative. Wait till the republicans get a hold of him. Obama is a pushover, crybaby. His wife thinks America is mean and cynical. If you listen to Obamas speeches, he is actually depressing. He makes it sound like America is crumbling and that we are all against each other. That is not true.

Hillary, NOT Obama, is the one that reaches across party lines. Look at there voting record. He has been against the republicans, and she has tried to work with them on the issues. Obama is a fake and the people and media are realizing it.

Obama keeps saying the math doesn't add up for Hillary, well Obama quess what it doesn't add up for you either. Neither candidate will reach enough delegates to win the nomination. That is why it is important for Florida to redo the primary. Then the math will add up for Hillary and she will win the nomination fair and square!!!!!!

I know over 3 dozen Florida republicans and independents that will vote for Hillary and NEVER Obama. I am a Florida democrat who will vote McCain IF Hillary is not the democratic nominee.

GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!     NObama!!!!!!!!!!
Not only do (Ohio) people drive poorly, but if they (Ohio) has caused the election of the past presidents such as George Bush then we can blame them for the contry's financial problems, plus the war in Iraq. Haven't they had enough experience?  Oh well it isn't over until the fat lady sings. And...there is no way Obama gets better treatment then the Stepford wife...he has taken alot of bad press because of the Clinton lies.....Go Obama
Funny when Obama looses...all the Obama supporters get hateful!  Sore Loosers!!!!!!  Soon everyone will realize Obama is just an empty suit full of hot air!!!  
Democrats are killing themselves. No wonder McCain and GW have those huge smiles on their face.  This should be a general election that the Democrats could slam dunk...so much for that.  I can't beleive McCain is going to be our next president!  Obama can't win the big states, Clinton will not win the delegates or popular vote.  The only choice left is to have an Obama/Clinton ticket...and the only reason I suggest Obama/Clinton vs. Clinton/Obama is because there will be mass protest if Obama wins the delegate and popular vote math yet the super delegates take the nomination from him.  I don't want to be around for that.  
Talking about racist: We can say that Barrack Hussein Obama has bee playing the race card from the very beginning, why? why do you think the black community is voting for him. The black community betrayed the Clinton's and are helping to keep the country divide don't fully blame them Barack Hussein Obama wanted it that way; he gave them a good sale speech.
People are waking up and are finding out that giving a poetry speech is not enough is like Hillary said " nice speech but no substance. One thing I have said is that we don't have the time for on the job training.
I do want to call on the good black community not to vote based on one of them but vote with the one that is ready to start undoing the mess that will be inherit. Do not vote because he is black like you vote because real change can only be achieve with experience. CHANGE WITHOU EXPERIENCE IS NOT POSSIBLE.
To Hillary supporters, do you you really think that the BO people will vote for that woman in the fall? This movement that you hate so much is for BO and they won't go for her...And you think ANY REPUBLICANS OR INDEPENDANTS will vote for her? Please answer those questions? Well, as much as I hate it, McCain will be the next president. All those people that Hillary's supporters are putting down will make sure of it...It's a shame...It would be nice for once to see new politics. I travel a lot and people around the world were starting to think that, maybe, they were wrong about this country because of BO...I guess America is still the America it was for the last 8 years!!!    
It's too bad. I thought the Dems would keep the race clean. Now that hillary has struck out I really hope Obama doesn't bring up Mark Rich, Whitewater, the ongoing civil trail in CA, the library donations, the tax records, etc.... stay away from that stuff and the Dems still may get my vote.
For all the people talking about the "racist" blacks. Note that they were skewed towards Hillary until SC. Her campaign offended the black population and that has affected the voting. Blacks were more than happy to vote for her until then. That's a very bigoted statement that you are making and is not backed up by the polling.
I think mentioning rasism after the resul or during electiong is a sign of a soreloser. ifthaqt is the only deffenceof the candidatewhat a pity.
Ohio is a tough crowd.  I was born there, graduated high school there, my first child was born there and then I moved to Michigan.  After the exit polls revealed that race was a factor in 8 out of 10 voters - I think the best move I ever made - was the one I made when I moved my family to Michigan. I have decided I am no longer a Buckeye.
Reality Check: Why on earth would Obama drop out of this when he's AHEAD in the delegate count? You're the one that needs a reality check. I'm very disappointed in the Ohio voters; however Obama will win the nomination in spite of them because the numbers don't add up for Clinton! Clinton didn't win anything last night. She didn't gain enough delegates to make a difference.
I will proudly give credit where credit is due. Hillary deserves credit for running an effective smear campaign aided and abetted by the spineless press who will not stop theor adoration long enough to question her so-called experience or question the Clinton Canadian connection.
Sadly, for the Clintons and their fans, she opened Pandora's Box, big time.

Let the "real" race begin!
Why is this important history making election being dragged into a boxing ring of the White Woman vs the Black Man?  This is my question?  Our country needs change, but good change!  Im afraid of what kind of a change it will be if the race card is already being played so early in the game. You are voting on the best qualifications for the sake of our country,not because one is black or a woman.  The Clinton's did a lot of good for our country when Bill was president. Ok Bill got caught with his pants down, but realistically they all do it in DC, some are more careful thats all.  Look at all this administration has destroyed, yet he stays president. Go figure. Do we forget? Behind every good president is a smart woman.  Maybe we need a smart woman to lead us out of this mess all these careless men have gotten us into.  Just because a Black man has charisma and can tell everyone what they want to hear, does not mean he is going to do what he says. No one will know the real man or woman until he/she runs the country.  We have to be sure we elect someone who has the savey to help our country.  Not get into a race war because the blacks or whites didn't get their way. Now you want to cry the prejudice song. Thats one of the reasons this country is so messed up. People want what they want in their own clicks whether it is damaging or not. United we stand devided we fall. Acting this way only breeds more anger, we need to unite not seperate.  All blacks, whites, hispanic, asian, etc, etc. Don't people get it after all the hell this country has been through.  Only in America are we never satisfied!!  I only hope whoever gets in the White House will lead this country back to dignity, hope, greatness, stability and unite the people to care about each other instead of always trying to outdo and hating on each other.  This is not about Race! It's about electing a worthy president!
I don't like Hillary because she's so divisive, even within her own party. Just look at these comments that people are posting. You can feel the hate.

This is a win for dirty politics as usual. A vote for Hillary is a vote for the same old garbage that everyone is tired of. Karl Rove is alive and well and living in the soul of Hillary Clinton.

Why Hillary Won Ohio:

Because Obama started out over 20 points behind as late as 2 weeks ago.

Because she threw every lie she could fabricate at Obama and dragged the race into the mud where she is most comfortable...and the voters were gullible enough to believe her. god help us.

Well, if she is the nominee in November, it will take John McCain all of one minute to put the lie to all of her alleged "experience" and start throwing all of her scandals back at her.  

I'm sure her supporters are giddy, the Republicans certainly are.
I am a Black, educated female living in Ohio.  I voted early in the day yesterday and then went home to watch Barack Obama's inevitable loss.  Hillary Clinton's win was expected in Ohio, and the win was no big surprise.  Anyone living in Ohio knows what kind of state this is, and I can speak on it because I have first-hand experience.  The racism is blatant - not hidden in living rooms or only practiced among those who live in remote areas.  It's EVERYWHERE.  So, Hillary wins a state she was predicted to win.  Big Deal.  I guarantee she will not win Ohio against McCain - - and neither will Barack.  Ohio no more wants a woman in the White House than they do a Black Man.  McCain will win Ohio in November - hands down, no contest.  

What no one seems to be talking about is the fact the the LOSING Democrat in almost every contest has more votes than all the Republicans combined.  People are voting for Democratic candidates in record numbers.  The fact remains that Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in the popular vote and so far in the delegate count.  It means nothing if she is winning the 'Big States' - Barack still has more votes being the loser than all of the Republicans combined. And, HE has been able to appeal to more voters out of the traditional Democratic base than she has.

If Hillary and Barack want to continue fighting, so be it.  If they want to air each other's dirty laundry, so be it.  If they want to continue to spend millions of dollars, so be it.  It's a Democratic year, and there will eventually be a Democratic President in the White House in November.  It's just sad that they have to tear each other down and waste a whole summer to get there.  

Hopefully, the DNC will put a stop to the madness and just make them go on the same ticket.  They need to be focusing on McCain right now - not each other.





Hillary is unelectable. She will unite the Republicans and she's losing half the Democrats.

Looks like John McCain will be our next president.
As an American, I am sadden by the racist or race-related comments on this board.  In general, I am sadden at the "lack of intellectual evolution" of most Americans. It is 2008.  Why have we not moved away from these 2 dimensional stereotypes and characterizations of presidential candidates?  Why are we not measuring merit on the contents of one's character and the ability to do one of the most important jobs in the world?  I am American of African descent, I am member of Trinity United Church of Christ, I am a mother, I am a wife, I am a tax payer, I am more than the 2 dimensional box that the media has put me in when it comes to deciding who to vote for...  I am voting for the candidate who's policies will not only meet my needs as an American, but I want a candidate who will bring America out of this cycle of turmoil.  Our economy is depressed, we are losing so many fellow Americans in the war, our borders are not entirely secure, the working class is being overtaxed, our environment is suffering because no one is pushing for stronger incentives to use biofuels... these are the issues facing OUR AMERICA.  Doesn't anyone care about those issues?  It's not about whether an African-American is running or a woman is running or a "supposed" war hero is running for president... It is about which AMERICAN is the best AMERICAN for the job.

In my 30+ years on this planet, I had hoped that American would've have come a long way... but by the comments on this boards, we have a long, arduous road ahead of us.  Because socially, it seems we are going backwards.

I hope that you all take pride in the fact that we at least have the right to participate in the presidential process and may the best candidate (whomever you support) win.

Regards.
To all those who say clinton will not win the general election because obama supporters will vote mccain if she is the nom, need to look at the polls 25% of hillary supporters have said they would vote mccain if obama is the nom where as only 10% of obama supporters said they would defect from the dem party if she is looks like all your talk is another smoke screen to the american public to try and use fear to get your boy the nod. realize now that racism has two heads the fact is there are white racists and balck racist. I do not want to see this country split but will tell you now I am not racist in the least I will visit moives with black people will vote for a black canadate given he or she has the stuff for the job. But what I will not do is elect someone I see as being given the election based on his race and that alone. I have gotten to the point that when I hear an obama ad I either turn off my tv or radio or walk out of the room. My husband ask me why and I explained though he had once held my attention I realized I needed to hear solutions not just empty promises. I like him but believe the public needs to look harder at this man. I always remember my mother telling me to watch out because if something looks to good to be true it is usually is to good to be true. seems to me hes alot like that boy we tell our daughters to steer clear of the smooth talker whose gone before the stain has dried. america we need a leader not a well spoken snakeoil salesman.
as to the race it was projected just two days ago that obama had closed the double digit gap t just a couple points are you forgetting his advisor did go to canada and say he was really for nafta? are you that small that you  can't  see that his realestate deal was crooked ? You claim the media is aganist him when in fact they have been for him all this time not reporting on half the stuff they should as soon as someone shows he has made a misstake the media quickly sweeps it under the rug. THe media will not come out aganist him out of fear of racism.he needs to be tested now not later. so quit spouting your self rightous bull and realize he is just a man an not the return of the messiah.
I wanted to make one more comment.  It is not racist because white people wanted to vote for Hillary.  To assume that fellow white Americans only voted for Hillary because she is white is an insult.  To assume that black Americans only voted for Obama because he is 1/2 African descent is an insult.  Again, it is 2008 - surely, some of us intelligent Americans have matured and evolved pass this level of ignorance.  Is it not plausible that fellow Americans voted for the CANDIDATE THAT THEY THOUGHT WAS THE BEST regardless of their skin color.  As an American of African descent, I supported Obama.  As a native Chicagoan, I liked the things that he did for the south side of Chicago.  I liked the idea of 1, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.  I liked the idea of not looking at a white American as a "white" American, but my "fellow", American.  I want a Democratic candidate that is against the war, that acknowledges the fact that we are losing too many American soliders in a war that doesn't make a lot of sense (to me per se).  I didn't support Obama because he was of African descent.  I supported him because I agree with his purposed policies.  I did not vote for Hillary because she is white, I did not vote for Hillary because I was not too keen on her policies.  I supported her when I lived in New York and she was becoming senator. I championed her campaign, knowing full well she would used that to "spring board" her to this level of politics.  

I am very please to see two good Americans volley for the Democratic nomination.  A woman, a person of African descent... yes, that's obvious to see, but what's more important is that they are FELLOW AMERICANS.

This idiotic, ignorant and deceitful veil of racism in America has got to stop.  If we were to be judged - as a country - by some of the comments on this board, certainly people would question why on earth we've become a "super power".  It's 2008 people, let's focus on substance and move pass a person's skin color.
PEOPLE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO GET REAL ABOUT THE OBAMA PRETTY TALK.  IT TAKES MORE THAN A LOT OF BIG MONEY PEOPLE BEHIND HIM TO QUALIFY HIM TO BE PRESIDENT.  PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO REALLY THINK
ABOUT THE ISSUES THAT ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE TAKEN CARE OF AFTER BUSH. I DON'T EVEN THINK IT IS A CLOSE CALL.  SHE IS BY FAR THE BEST ONE FOR THE JOB.  

I HOPE AND PRAY THAT SHE PREVAILS IN THIS MOST SERIOUS QUEST.
An African American with very little experience and prior exposure is waging a worthwhile contest against a national political celebrity with decades served in the political landscape -- not to mention a spouse who served as the President.  How again does this serve as evidence of racism?  On the contrary, the majority of voters (and certainly journalists) have an absolute infatuation with Obama....  it's just that some of them can't get around the paucity of his experience.
Alright - as a woman who is 51 years of age - and who has tried to fair during this democratic primary process - and who has yet found a reason to support Clinton based upon her claims of 35 years of experience, gender, national security, etc.  I am concerned that people are voting for her - simply because she is a woman, or white, or that she is the closest thing to a democratic incumbent that we have and enough time has passed since the 90's that it is hard to remember the turmoil druing that period and the fact that the economy had begun to decline at the end of the administration - casting doubt on how good the "good times" actually were.    I do not mind a fair fight - and I wholeheartedly believe in the electoral process - but am very disillusioned with Senator Clinton on many fronts.  What as strong, independent, honest women who believe in integrity and respect - can we do to INSIST that the media is fair and unbiased, that the correct information is getting to the voters, to actually compare how these candidates have affected the everyday lives of those who live in our state, how can the programs that voters are being baited with - universal health care, tax cuts for the middle class, will actually cost individuals and the country as a whole, that if one campaign is charged with talking to the Canadian government and it has been reported that the other campaign is guilty of the same - that it deserves the same amount of attention by the media.  And the cause and effect we are experiencing by the actions of those who voted that we go to war in Iraq has brought upon our nation - not only in terms of national security, debt, resepect and most of all the cost to the american families because of the loss of thousands of our young men and women - not counting those who survived but will be affected for the remainder of their lives by injury that is not only physical but mental.  Do other mothers out there realize that there are 2 candidates that are running for the highest office of our country - that voted to send our sons and daughters to war?  Just thoughts..... I think as women we can appeal to other women - in a respectful, accurately factual way on the issues between the candidates - then whoever wins, it can be said the contest was fair!
Ean, Iowa:  good post.  I agree.  I think Obama will probably get really negative now, because obviously, it works.  This is quite unfortunate, as I believe it fractures the party.  Her ONLY chance of winning the Democratic nomination is the super delegates, and I think there will be a huge uproar if they go against popular vote.  Either way, I am concerned.
Race wasn't a factor - are you kidding?  My brother in Ohio gave me the "Obama is a muslim, doesn't say the pledge of allegiance, crap just last week".  Did you see the clip from - I think 60 minutes - whereby the guy from Ohio said the same thing.  Did you see the picture the Drudge Report said came from the Clinton campaign of Obama in native dress in Africa.  Did you hear Clinton's answer when asked if Obama was a Muslim?  Come on!  Isn't it the JOB of our elected officials - especially those running for president - supposed to believe that we are all created equal - and safe in our beds.  Not to allow unfounded racism to factor into the outcome of an election.
The idea that blacks voting for Obama are racist, is ridiculous. The black people voting for Obama has had no problem voting for the Clintons or any other democratic candidate in the past. What true is that 20% of the white people voting for Hillary would not vote for a black candidate under any circumstances -- thats racism.

Could it be that black are just as receptive to Barack messege as the youth is, becuase they are not blinded by racism. Close to 70% of the youth choose Obama -- black and white. Are they racist also? Hillary started off with around 30% of the black vote before Bill decided to go nuclear, which cost them 2/3 of that initial support.
It's funny how everyone is calling it racism that the vast majority of African  Americans are voting for Barack Obama; just a few months ago he wasn't black enough and Hillary was carrying the majority of he African-American vote, but that all change when Bill Clinton used the racist remark in South Carolina. That is when African-American rallied arount Barack Obama; the same way women in New Hampshire rallied around Hillary Clinton when they felt she was being mistreated. If the shoes were on the other foot and Barack Obama lost 12 straight the Clinton campaign would have demanded Obama to dropped out the race. Everyone complains about the media beating up on Hillary but she is the only candidate who can stay in the race after 12 straight loses. At least Barack was man enough of to Congratulate Hillary for her wins during his speech instead of pretending like her win was worthless
I guess the time has come when I'll whatch all my NEWS on Public Broadcasting. MSNBC or CNN etc. have all become a Joke. You are right in your percieved Assumption that the Public is pretty stupid on the whole because if we were not, none of us would be watching you. There is however, a Time for taking out the Scissors and cutting the Strings. Whoever the Puppet Masters happens to be at the time, WILl HAVE NO ONE THEY CAN PLAY!!!
All you Omabs supporters think it is ok for 90% of blacks to vote for Obama, but if the white people vote for Hillary we are racist. We all see who the racist are and it would not be us. You all black people have shown your real colors. I think the white people should vote just like you all do for there color white. We are going to do just like you blacks do. HILLARY or McCain


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