ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



First thoughts: We move on

Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2008 9:09 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro


*** We move on: Democrats can forget about looking ahead to the general election, at least for now. Weary political reporters and campaign aides might want to think about canceling those spring vacation plans. And voters in Wyoming, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania will want to brace themselves for the political circus that’s about to arrive in their states. By winning Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, as well as having a very good night on the delegate front (more on that below), Clinton stopped Obama’s 11-contest winning streak and keeps the race going. No doubt these were impressive wins for her -- her candidacy was on the line, and she came through in the clutch. In short, she did what she had to do, and more. But that also doesn’t change the delegate math or the fact that Ohio and Texas always favored her. Remember that the Clinton campaign has even agreed that this is a race for delegates. And remember that polls showed her with significant leads in both states as of three weeks ago (in Ohio, she led by 21 points as of mid-February). But wins are wins -- especially decisive ones -- and we move on…

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his firstread on Tuesday night's primary results and weighs the chances for each democratic candidate.

*** Over to you, Sen. Obama: And we move on to Wyoming and Mississippi, where Obama probably holds the edge and will add to his delegate lead. But between then and Pennsylvania’s primary on April 22 -- which is a seven weeks away -- how does Obama respond? Heading into last night’s contests, he played the front-runner strategy, largely staying positive (although he did jab her in fliers and radio ads). But does he now start making more forceful contrasts? And in which direction does he go? Iraq? Clinton’s actual experience? Her electability? Her tax returns (which she says she won’t release until Tax Day)? And does he try to start working the refs the way Clinton’s team did? After the tough press Obama received in the past few days, as well as all the comeback stories Clinton is getting today after losing 11 in a row, is it more difficult for Clinton to play the media-is-taking-it-easy-on-Obama card? The burden's now on Obama to prove that he's tough enough to take on Clinton. Can he figure out how to go negative on her without making himself look like just another politician? In fact, isn't that exactly what the NAFTA story did to Obama -- it made him look like just another politician, who will say one thing to one audience and whisper something else to another?

*** McCain’s good news: Last night’s biggest winner, however, wasn’t Clinton. It was McCain. Not only did he hit the magic number to wrap up the GOP nomination (he crossed 1,191 and now stands at 1,230), but he now gets to watch Clinton and Obama spend their millions battling one another -- and not him -- over the next several weeks. McCain now has the time to begin raising money, reaching out to conservatives, and building a national campaign staff. As we’ve said before, a Dem race that lasts into April and perhaps beyond is the best news the Republican Party has received in quite some time. Just askin’: Would McCain's photo-op with Bush have happened today had Obama emerged last night as the de facto Dem nominee? Now, McCain can get a lot of the party stuff out of the way now, while the media is focused on the Clinton-Obama showdown.

*** The delegate count: Based on preliminary results of last night's contests (the Texas caucuses are not yet factored in), here's where the Democratic delegate count stands: Obama 1,518, Clinton 1,429. The NBC News Hard Count has Obama at 1,307 to 1,175 for Clinton after last night's voting. The superdelegate count stands at Clinton 254, Obama 211. Here's how the states broke down: VT: Obama 9-6; OH: Clinton 73-62 (six unallocated); RI: Clinton, 13-8; TX: Clinton 46-34 (113 unallocated). That’s a net gain of 23 pledged delegates for Clinton. But before figuring out the Texas mess, Clinton had a net of approximately 13 delegates. If Obama wins the delegate battle in Texas (which the allocation formulas seem to indicate), he'll cut that 13 net by as many as 6. However, one estimate in Texas has Obama netting no more than one after the caucus, giving Clinton the possibility that she'll net more than 10 delegates when March 4 is all said and done. While not MAJOR progress on the pledged delegate front, it's impressive nonetheless since so many folks predicted her not even netting 10 delegates last night.

*** The popular vote: On this front, Clinton also made huge inroads here. In the states that have awarded delegates, Obama's popular vote lead dropped two points to 49%-47%: He's won 12,920,961 votes to Clinton's 12,322,695 votes out of more than 26 million cast. Toss in Florida and Obama's nearly 600,000 vote lead is cut to 300,000: 13,497,175 to Clinton's 13,193,681. Finally, if you count Clinton's vote haul from Michigan -- where she was the only major Dem on the ballot -- she actually overtakes Obama by a slim 30,000 votes, 13,521,832 to Obama's 13,491,175. 

*** When candidates attack: In the build-up to Wisconsin, the Clinton campaign began to hammer Obama (on those Deval Patrick lines, refusing to debate, and even on Social Security), but those attacks didn’t work. Obama ended up with a 17-point victory there. But heading into last night’s contests, the Clinton camp turned up the volume -- not quite to 11, to borrow a line from Spinal Tap, but still pretty high. They jumped all over the NAFTA/Goolsbee story, as well as Tony Rezko’s trial They unveiled that 3:00 am TV ad, followed by one blasting Obama for not conducting any hearings on the subcommittee he started chairing last year. And Clinton began deriding Obama as someone who only gave a speech in 2002. Want proof that the negative campaigning and bad press made a difference? In Texas, among those who decided within the last three days (21% of all voters), Clinton defeated Obama, 61%-38%. In Ohio, she won by similar margins among the group (9% of all voters), 63%-38%. She also won in Ohio with the 12% that made up their minds the day of the primary, 54%-43%, and those that decided last week by the identical margin. The question is whether the Clinton campaign can sustain the attacks over the long haul without it damaging her. Remember that in the past, voters haven’t been all that receptive to Clinton being on the attack.

*** “If I could turn back time…”: It’s also worth noting that the way in which the Obama campaign handled the NAFTA/Goolsbee story obviously didn’t work out that well. Would the Obama campaign have been better served if they had been upfront about Austan Goolsbee’s meeting with the Canadian consulate on that Friday, when the Clinton campaign first seized on the story? And should they have had Goolsbee hold a press conference to answer reporters’ questions? One thing is pretty clear: The approach they decided on didn’t fare that well. How Obama found himself on the defensive on NAFTA -- which Bill Clinton signed! -- turned out to be one of the more interesting developments leading into yesterday’s contests.

*** The race factor. One thing that should give the Obama camp some concern heading into Pennsylvania is how race ended up playing last night, especially in Ohio. Per NBC’s AnaMaria Arumi, 18% of white Ohio voters in the exit polls said race was important to their vote, and 75% of those people voted for Clinton. Those numbers are comparable to what we saw in southern states. But they’re higher than in neighboring Missouri, where a comparable number (17%) said that the race of the candidate was important to their vote and the vote split was 10 points less -- 65% to Clinton. In Texas, 10% of whites said that race was a factor, and they went 65% for Clinton as well.

*** Just asking: After last night’s contests, and with the race moving on into Pennsylvania, doesn’t the DNC have to do something about Florida and Michigan? What say you, Howard Dean? The DNC chairman can't sit and hope this Florida-Michigan debacle goes away. While no one believes Dean will be the ultimate powerbroker to decide the nominee, he can play powerbroker on this issue. If he doesn't, it will be the ultimate black mark on his tenure.

*** On the trail: Clinton is in DC; Huckabee is in Arkansas; McCain meets with President Bush at the White House, heads to an event at the RNC, and then goes to West Palm Beach, FL for a fundraiser there; and Obama flies to Chicago.

Countdown to Wyoming: 3 days
Countdown to Mississippi: 6 days
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 48 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 244 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 321 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639 to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.       

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

I won’t kid you, this morning it hurts that the Clinton campaign still has life.  I want to congratulate Senator McCain on his nomination, and he will probably go on to victory in November if he faces Clinton.  I did some Electoral College ‘what if’ games, and he easily defeats her in the mid 300 range versus her low 200 totals.  It could possibly be even larger for McCain if he wins California, which is very possible.  However, those change swing completely around if McCain faces Obama, and he could easily be in the mid 300’s versus McCain’s low 200’s at best.

I know Senator Obama still has the delegate lead, and has received 560,000 more votes than her throughout this campaign.  But does anyone think for one moment she will not steal the nomination away from him?  She and Bill will work the their party I.O.U.’s and get Michigan and Florida seated, and arm twist super delegates to put her over the top.

I heard many commentators last night say the DEMS will once again die of 10,000 cuts.  Will the Democrats blame her for defeat?  She has no coattails, and you can kiss our Congressional majority goodbye.

I was so looking forward to President Obama’s Inaugural Address.  I bet it would have been spectacular.
The question is not who wins the big states among Democrats when you split the vote, but which candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket can put the biggest vote total together in the general election against John McCain.  I can’t speak to New York or New Jersey, but if the suggestion is that Barack would lose California to McCain, that’s just ridiculous.  We simply ran out of time before Super Tuesday to overcome Hillary’s huge starting lead.

What Hillary demonstrated yesterday is that negative campaigning can effectively slow your opponent’s momentum, especially when you spring it at the last minute.  But then we already knew that.  Her campaign is not thinking any farther at this point than simple short term survival.  She’s out there running as though she’s on the Republican ticket; playing on people’s fears and anxieties, bashing the media, and talking up the Republican nominee’s experience.  McCain is starting to work on grabbing Barack’s message of bipartisan cooperation.  Her experience argument may find some traction against someone with the youthful demeanor of Barack, but against McCain it will be revealed as the empty assertion that it really is.  

So what is the long-term plan?  Does she think she can have the superdelegates overturn the decision of the voters and then just get in front of Barack’s parade and march to victory?  That parade will look more like a mob with pitchforks chasing her down the street.  There’s nothing left for her to win.  It’s over.  All she can do now is drag Barack into the gutter with her swing the general election to McCain by letting the air out of the movement Barack has already started.  The voters Barack has energized represent the future of the Democratic Party if we can hold on to them.  Hillary represents the past.  There’s not a lot to think over here.  
Well the rush limbaugh crowd did it, the repubs helped helped hillary to ther texas win.. They want to run against Hillary and have mountains of ammunition  to use against her. I guess what ever that was running down Chris mathews leg has dried up
What speech does she mean when she talks about 2002?  Please help me... I figure she's talking about Obama's 2004 DNC speech, which was in, well, 2004.
I never, NEVER, would have said this at any point in the last year, and frankly, I'm stunned I'm saying it this morning - but I think they have to share the ticket. No do-overs in FL and MI - whichever candidate has the most delegates gets the top slot, which is how the biggest prize has always been decided. At this point that looks like Pres. Obama and VP Clinton, tho I certainly wasn't a math major. The results from all the contests show that Dems love them both and an entire segment of voters will be angered and bitter at this point to lose one of them. I do agree that Obama can get Clinton votes, but not vice versa. Having Clinton at the top gives the I vote to McCain and that's not what any card-carrying Dem wants.
Massive Republican cross over, from urging of Conservative Radio (Rush), to keep Hillary in it.
Serious ballot problems in high Obama support areas like Clinton supporter Stephanie Tubbs-Jones' district.
Blantant use of false lines and fear tactics.

Congrats on your "wins" Hillary.  Let the mud slinging continue for months.

Cincinnati, a huge Republican city (about 75% R vs 25 D) now has more registered Democrats than Repubs after all the cross over to vote Hillary to keep this battle going after urging of Rush Limbaugh for the last few days.  Too bad all those hundreds of thousands of Repubs voting for Hillary will not be doing that in November.

Congrats President McCain!
"While not MAJOR progress on the pledged delegate front, it's impressive nonetheless since so many folks predicted her not even netting 10 delegates last night"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I thought that this sentence was so funny, I wanted to isolate it!  WOW!

Obama '08
Ah yea folks, give Clinton Michigan and Florida, which are rightfully hers,she will kick butt in Pennsylvania and she has enough superdelegates to beat him. So, SHE will be out next president.
FLORIDA HAS ALLREADY VOTED IN JANUARY,WHEN WE HAVE OUR "FULL" POPULATION OF WINTER RESIDENCES. IT WAS A FAIR ELECTION,WITH NO ADVANTAGE TO EITHER CANDIDATE. HILLARY CLINTON WON "DECISIVELY". WE HAVE ALLREADY VOTED AND THE RESULTS ARE COMPLETED.OUR DELEGATES ALL 100% OF THEM MUST BE SEATED AND COUNTED AT THE NATIONAL CONVENTION. THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN GOVENOR "CRIST" AND FLORIDA REPUBLICAN LEGESLATOR, MADE THE DECISION TO MOVE UP THE PRIMARY A FEW WEEKS.IF YOU FEEL THE SAME WAY AS I DO, GO TO seatourdelegates.com AND SIGN THE PETITION.
Wow.  I'm depressed.  Hillary has been relentlessly trying to kill the hope of millions of Americans.  It's starting to work.  Hello President McCain.
I can't wait until the hype and spin of Hillary Clinton's "victories" dies down and the reality of what happened last night sinks in.
She had a 20 point lead in Ohio a couple weeks ago and Obama cut that lead in half.
She had a 20 point lead in Texas a couple weeks ago and managed to eke out a couple-point victory in the primary, but will most likely lose the caucus and go on to lose the overall delegate battle in Texas.
Barack Obama essentially maintains his delegate lead and now 370 of the remaining delegates that Clinton needs to try to catch him have passed under the bridge with her making, essentially, no gain.
Her campaign keeps saying things like "she's winning the big states that democrats have to win."
NONSENSE.  Does anyone REALLY not think that Barack Obama - as the Democratic nominee - will win states like New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts?  Of course he will.  
The REALITY is he has a chance to actually win states like Kansas, Idaho, Montana, and - YES - Texas in November.  He will bring in voters from the middle and even some Republicans in the general election.  If Hillary Clinton were to become the nominee, she would mobilize such opposition on the other side there is no way she could beat John McCain.  
And here's another point that the talking heads rarely make - in EVERY state where Hillary has campaigned, once she actually SHOWS UP in that state and starts talking to people, her numbers there plummet.  So now just imagaine, for a moment, that she's the nominee and has another 8 MONTHS of going state by state and watching her numbers sink and sink further.  That adds up to one thing.
President John Sydney McCain.
Can Barak please make this argument, either himself or through surrogates:  IF Hillary says that the superdelegates should exercise their independent judgement as part officials, then shouldnt they step in NOW to end this before we hand the advantage to McCain.  Obama is ahead, and will remain ahead, in pledged delegates and popular vote, so NOW is the time to use the superdelegates. For the good of the party.
All this is called democracy at work. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be our next president.
She is only dividing our nation. I can only say that voters in Ohio and Texas seem to favor the old Clinton dynasty.
It is interesting that all of my buddies and college classmates will vote for McCain so that they make it clear they reject divisveness and deceit.
It blows my mind that Pres. Clinton signed NAFTA, the Buckeye state blames NAFTA for its woes, and the public sided with Sen. Clinton and held Sen. Obama responsible.  Talk about winning the PR war.
Analysis: two tough foes ahead for Obama
Posted by James F. Smith March 5, 2008 12:23 AM
By Peter S. Canellos, Globe Staff
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama woke up yesterday morning with hopes of vanquishing his last remaining rival and claiming the Democratic presidential nomination. He ended the day with two stubborn opponents: Hillary Clinton — vowing to continue her campaign after big victories in Rhode Island and Ohio — and a long-delayed but growing media backlash against his candidacy.
The second one may be more threatening than the first.
Despite breaking Obama’s string of 11 victories, Clinton is likely to gain only a modest boost in delegates and will have a hard time erasing his lead in delegates. And the Democratic party leaders who make up the party’s ‘‘superdelegates’’ will feel pressure to validate the will of the people, meaning that Obama remains the front-runner for the nomination.
But for the first time in his improbable rise, Obama himself became the main issue in the campaign — and the voters’ response wasn’t encouraging.
Obama had built up a 75,000-vote lead in early voting in Texas, only to see Clinton erase it with a strong comeback in the last few days; exit polls showed that late-deciding voters chose her over him by a 2-1 ratio.
A last-minute Clinton TV ad questioning Obama’s ability to maintain national security may have helped her; so too did his own mishandling of a controversy over his aide’s alleged comments to Canadian officials suggesting Obama wasn’t serious about renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Clinton, in what may be her first memorable phrase of the long campaign, accused Obama of giving voters the old ‘‘wink-wink’’ — promising something he didn’t intend to deliver. And Obama suddenly was on the defensive.
''It seems clear that Clinton had the better of the last few days of the campaign,’’ said Dante Scala, political scientist a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. As a result, he said, Clinton is unlikely to face as much pressure to withdraw from the race, setting up another potential showdown in Pennsylvania on April 22.
The long wait for Pennsylvania will give both campaigns a chance to rearm themselves with money and issues. But compared to previous chapters in this drawn-out epic of an election, Obama election year, Obama will almost certainly be receiving greater scrutiny than Clinton.
For two months, the Illinois senator dominated the national zeitgeist with his ‘‘yes, we can’’ message of hope and change, a phenomenon celebrated in YouTube videos and T-shirts. But his recent return to earth coincided with the settling of the TV writers’ writer’s strike and the reemergence of late-night comedy shows as a political force.
Comics are quick to impose a story line and make it stick: Their jokes spring from common knowledge about the candidates — John McCain’s age, Clinton’s marital troubles, Mike Huckabee’s frequent professions of faith.
‘‘Saturday Night Live,’’ the granddaddy of all political comedy shows, chose to build its Obama narrative around the idea that reporters were completely in his thrall. And its skits — on both Feb. 23 and March 1 — presented Obama as an amiable guy inflated to hero status by a worshipful media.
Clinton, by contrast, was presented as annoying but indefatigable — a scrappy underdog whose complaints of unfairness got laughed off by the media. As if to drive home the point, comedienne Tina Fey used the Feb. 23 ‘‘Weekend Update’’ segment to deliver a thinly veiled exhortation to young women to quit Obama and get with the Hillary bandwagon.
‘‘In less than a minute, the SNL skit crystallized Hillary’s complaints [about unfair media treatment] and upgraded them from mere media inside baseball to the conventional wisdom,’’ said Matthew Felling, the former media analyst for CBS.com.
Clinton was quick to seize on the skit as proof of her point — mentioning it in last week’s debate in Ohio and then flying to New York for a long cameo on the show last Saturday.
The SNL appearance, followed by a stint on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Monday night, seemed to clear some of the gloom from around Clinton; her poll numbers began improving late last week.
Still, her wins in Ohio and Rhode Island and her battle for Texas only put her where the polls had had her a few weeks earlier, before Obama’s campaign blanketed the states with ads and staffers.
Rhode Island and Ohio were her turf, and she held it. She can feel relieved to be going on to Pennsylvania, but Obama remains the main focus of the race.
If he can handle it.

Yes, Hillary won by going extremely negative -- basically lying, if you will.  So what?  The presidentcy is at stake.  The end justifies the means -- why shouldn't the pursuit of power trump all else?  
And as Elton John would say "I'm still standing"

I don't know how the woman does it.  Where does the drive and motivation come from?  When most men would have packed it in and went away and got therapy this broad has a will and spirit that can not be broken.

First, I should say that I would LOVE to see Obama get the nomination.  However, this election and more importantly last night, has made ME pause and wonder about what a world would be like under an "Obama-Nation"

Does he have the experience?

Do we want (as Pat Robertson says on MSNBC) a community organizer making life and death decisions for us?

Who will answer the phone at 3am?  (great ad by the Clinton campaign)


This campaign heads to the new casino capital of the world

Pennsylvania which has been described as "Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle" the home of more shady politicians than New Jersey.

Hillary has most of the political big wigs in the state locked up except for Bob Casey the newly elected Senator who has largely remained uncommitted in the race.  


What also struck me as ironic last night was the following.  Keep in mind I have waited for and have watched every minute of this primary season.  John McCain comes out to Survivor's "Eye of the Tiger" a great song to get the crowd jacked up.

The words to that song not only fit him but also fit the lady who took the stage last night in Ohio to give a victory speech.  Hillary has the eye of tiger back can she take the BIG MO to Pennsylvania and beyond..... only time will tell

That is all
OMG!!


All these women who are voting against their own interest, you get what you ask for.  The President is the last glass ceiling for female workers. The 75 cents to 80 cents on the dollar earnings and the like is not going to go away simply by backing yet another man.  

Yes I know "Tucker Carlson" screams that women should not vote for a woman just for woman's sake, and that his wife does not even consider such a thing. But I'd say Tucker makes a pretty good living and economics is not a "real concern" for his wife's fairy tale life.  

The rest of "working women" and there are many of them, NEED MONEY, just like the men who work the exact same jobs but make substantially more money do.  So when you (hair brained) females run to the polls and vote for Obama or McCain, you are voting against your own interest, your own pocket book, your own lively hood.... Like it or not that's just the way it is.  

So if it's "feel good" politics that drives you. Then when you drive to the bank and deposit your checks, you can say to yourselves. Boy or boy, it felt good to vote for Obama, he talks so well, or John McCain hey, he's a hero, who use to fly planes, he's got to be a good one.

You are just voting to keep yourselves down, keep your pay lower, keep the status quo.  You actually have a chance to make some "REAL CHANGE" if you choose to ignore this opportunity.... It's really quite simple you deserve what you get, you had a chance to make it better and you chose not to act.  

It doesn't mean you are a bad person, or anything like that. It does mean, you don't really understand politics, and the real meanings behind politics. It simply means you're not ready to step up to the "plate," and play "hard ball" for economic equality, you're still comfortable standing on the sidelines swinging the bat, while being paid substantially less money for doing the same jobs.
Obama is still going to win it.  I heard Bill Richardson is going to endorse him today - hope it's true.  Hillary has played the race card, and that is even worse than her constantly playing the gender card as if to say "woe is me, i am woman" - which i as a female find offensive.

But it is disgusting how she has pandered to racism for her benefit, not just white and black, but black and latino.  She, and her family, simply do not care in their quest for power.  But ultimately she will lose.  The wisdom of the party will prevail as the math is impossible, and the superdelegates will follow the will of the people, rather than usher in President mcCain.

I was very disappointed for those last night unable to see, or don't care, that Hillary is splitting the party, ESPECIALLY by saying John McCain is better than Barack Obama, when they are in the same party !!
Hillary has an evil and vindictive side.

Now Barack and Co. will have to throw the CLINTON sink out there, and it will be overflowing with past scandals, shady deals, and lies.  I am white, and I can see with my own eyes that Hillary has been using racism.  The Newspeople reinforce this when they break the voters down by race - DON'T DO THAT !!  It should be irrelevent and only causes bad and weird feelings.  I don't want to hear it.  Incites racism in those already so inclined.\
Obama needs to campaign against McCain, and ignore Hillary Clinton.

Given the delegate math - Clinton gained at most 13 delegates last night, which Obama will immediately recover in Wyoming and Mississippi - there is simply no way for Clinton to win the pledged delegate race.  And while Team Clinton can spin that only big states ought to count, and thus the superdelegates should give her the nomination regardless of her deficits in pledged delegates and popular vote, it's not going to happen.  The superdelegates, unlike Team Clinton, are more concerned about the Democratic Party as a whole.

Simply put, Barack Obama is already the presumptive Democratic nominee, and he ought to campaign as if he has already won: focusing on John McCain and ignoring Hillary Clinton.

Her gutter campaigning will then be exposed for what it is: an attempt to gain influence in what she hopes will be a John McCain administration.

Hillary Clinton is, if nothing else, a seasoned political operator.  She knows she cannot win the Democratic nomination.  She also knows she cannot help Obama win in November; she burned those bridges in Texas and Ohio.  Thus, she has only one path left to retain any personal political clout: to help John McCain defeat Barack Obama, and call in those chips during McCain's presidency to pass a few impressive-sounding bills ... positioning herself for 2012.

In the real world of the delegate count - as well as in her personal political calculations - Clinton is already campaigning for John McCain.  Barack Obama should thus focus on McCain, ignore Clinton, and use his resources and time preparing for November.
As an Obama supporter, I will not vote for Hillary Clinton, under any circumstances. If she wins the nomination, .she will not get his supporters to support her.  I think all the people he has brought into the party (the youth..etc..) will simply stay home and not vote in November. What a shame. The Democratic party is in shambles...she should have dropped out, before yesterday, if she had the greater good of the party as her priority. But she's never put anything ahead of her own need for power.
Everybody calm down and start talking Unity Ticket.  It would blow McCain out of the water.  Both Obama and Clinton blasting away with both barrels for months before McCain even picks a VP.  This would be beautiful.

OK people, I have thrown my towel in. I just do not have the enrgy/time to follow this telenovela soap opera. I am a moderate that just wants a President who is willing to take the Economy and Healthcare seriosuly. I believe that Obama is that person. But it seems that the Dems are just not able to stop fighting and focus. If the next few months turn out to be a cesspit of smears, then I will just vote McCain. My GWB induced dislike for chaos is stronger than the hope I have for the new domestic focus the Dems could bring.
Obama has yet to make those contrasts like you mention above and I wander if it is the lack of skill in debating when you can't draw words out to intensify their meaning yet you have to talk and explain reasoing and idfferences. if Ob ama does strike contrsts then he'll be percieved as trying new stratgey and people will ask why and it'll be noticeable , but if he doesn't do that then Clinton has the momentum in what America is seeing aobut him now adn feling of his true nature so he is in a no-win situation concerning momentum.He is also in trouble when, not if, the DNC revotes for Michigan/Fl and why a revote why not count the ovtes but I agree, let them campaign there and let us see. i don't think obama will fair even close in those primaries.

the obama camp screams for the popular vote to indicate the super del vote yet last night he pulled more super del votes in Texas  - so does he still have this same arguement come the national convention? He has also been very large on the peoples voices being heard yet his camp doesn't want the voices in Michigan and Florida to bve heard. There are a lot of contradictions that are swaying the public eye now and I think that and the Canadian phone call and his wife's statement of not being proud amercian til now and the shadey realistate dealing is truly hurting him. There is only so much you can deny or blow off as "a mistake" that the public will take and not begin to feel they see the true candidate.

Obama is in checkmate - maybe his following can hold it off but I truly feel and see the momentum swinging  sides and it is due to his pliable stances on key issues - he has 3 times I remember changing his tance on debate issues or promises he made.

It seems they trust Hillary.
As a Barack Obama supporter ( since day 1)i'm somewhat confused to why the American people continue to tell their son's & daughter's, that their Not Qualified(no matter what they accomplish)to become POTUS.There are Only 2 family's( BUSH-CLINTON) & their sibling's that have the qualification's to lead this great Nation of our's.We will send you to college to further your education, but make No bones about, You are Not ever gonna be Qualified to be The Leader of the Free world.
To the Mother's & Father's of America, you are telling other American's, that your Daughter's are available to be used as sexual plaything's by anyone with the Clinton name.
To the Mother's & Father's of America, you are telling other American's, that your son is available to be used as a so-called soldier, so that other's can make Untold amount's of $$$$$, thru the smokescreen of the War for Oil ( BUSHES). You're saying that you're Unwilling or to Weak to make the personal sacrifices that your parent's made before You. So you will offer up your children to anyone with the name of Bush- Clinton as sacrificial lamb's for their Pleasure.

The Dumbing down of America's children continue!

She got less net pledged delegates from these wins than Obama got from Hawaii alone...

Just not enough for her to gain any sort of edge... Bottom line: she didn't finish near as well as she needed to.  Right now, she's playing the role of Huckabee (I won Kansas, Dorothy! I won Kansas!)...

I'm sure Wyoming and Mississippi will erase that edge within a week.
By the way Morning Joe, you and the rest of the media reporting on everyone saying Hillary should get out to the race, probably helped turn the tide to her.

Everyone likes to prove the media and the pundits wrong!  (I'm only being half joking when I say this.)

And on the outspending argument...I have a lot to say.  First of all Barack Obama is battling the Clinton machine and name recognition factor (how many people have run against someone with an ex-President as a spouse?).  There, unfortunately, is a tremendous race factor in many areas of this country.  Messages of hope versus mud-slinging appear to need more time to "stick" (another unfortunate thing for our County).  Also, he is newer on the "Washington" scene (although he has a wealth of other pertinent life experience) and so it takes some dough to have people understand his positions (i.e., get the word out on issues matters).

While I can apprciate that it takes a lot of money to run a successful campaign, I doubt that the money matters are as simple as your reporting!
So she won 3 out of 15 since Super-Tuesday ... let's wait for the delegate count because - according Mark Penn - that's what matters, of course. I think Obama caught up very well. Two weeks ago I did not expect this to be that close and I was hoping that he did well in the contests before yesterday (which he did).  

I think though it is time to play a little hardball with Billary - she has so many scandals looming and the larger part of the democratic voters (not the republicans) seem to have forgotten about it. Even the recent story on the drudge report about Hillary defending aggressively a rapist of a 12 year old girl by painting her as a slut got only mentioned once (briefly) by Tucker on MSNBC. What about one of her fundraisers, a firm that is involved in a large number of sexual harassment law suits ... and Billary said "it's ok. There is no conviction yet". Enough of the pussy press!

I know Obama want to play 'nice' but somebody has to turn up the heat on Billary if the press does not do it now
I'm voting for Nader. And then I'm leaving this moronic country. I have no desire to pay taxes to benefit idiots who can't see through political BS.

Congratulations, McCain. You won all 8 contests last night.
Clinton has every right to continue her pursuit of the nomination. However, the DNC must demand that Clinton immediately:

1- Release her tax records.

2- Relese her White House records.

3- Release the Clinton Foundation donor list.

"In short, she did what she had to do, and more. But that also doesn’t change the delegate math or the fact that Ohio and Texas always favored her. Remember that the Clinton campaign has even agreed that this is a race for delegates".

That's all that needs to be said.
Hillary is telling all of us that the pledged delegates that represent our votes for Barack Obama do NOT matter. They might as well not exist as far as she's concerned.

If she manages to snake her way to the nomination with the votes of superdelegates, this Democrat will not be voting in the general election. I don't have it in me to vote for John McCain, but I certainly can stay home that day.
"So what is the long-term plan?  Does she think she can have the superdelegates overturn the decision of the voters and then just get in front of Barack’s parade and march to victory?  That parade will look more like a mob with pitchforks chasing her down the street.  There’s nothing left for her to win.  It’s over.  All she can do now is drag Barack into the gutter with her swing the general election to McCain by letting the air out of the movement Barack has already started.  The voters Barack has energized represent the future of the Democratic Party if we can hold on to them.  Hillary represents the past.  There’s not a lot to think over here.  

jaycee, Ventura, California (Sent Wednesday, March 05, 2008 9:18 AM)

Yes, you are a real thinker. Do you really think that the smoke you're blowing is in any way related to the facts? Kool-aide drinkers like you are going to be on SUICIDE watch in a couple of weeks...
Oh, and it's just like an Obama-bot to threaten riots if Hillary refuses to GIVE little Barry the nomination and they don't get their petulant little way. Great way to bring everyone together.

It's day three of the Rezko trial. What day does Barry get OUTED?
"So what is the long-term plan?  Does she think she can have the superdelegates overturn the decision of the voters and then just get in front of Barack’s parade and march to victory?  That parade will look more like a mob with pitchforks chasing her down the street.  There’s nothing left for her to win.  It’s over.  All she can do now is drag Barack into the gutter with her swing the general election to McCain by letting the air out of the movement Barack has already started.  The voters Barack has energized represent the future of the Democratic Party if we can hold on to them.  Hillary represents the past.  There’s not a lot to think over here.  

jaycee, Ventura, California (Sent Wednesday, March 05, 2008 9:18 AM)

Yes, you are a real thinker. Do you really think that the smoke you're blowing is in any way related to the facts? Kool-aide drinkers like you are going to be on SUICIDE watch in a couple of weeks...
Oh, and it's just like an Obama-bot to threaten riots if Hillary refuses to GIVE little Barry the nomination and they don't get their petulant little way. Great way to bring everyone together.

It's day three of the Rezko trial. What day does Barry get OUTED?
CONGRATS HILLARY!

You did it DESPITE being outspent 2.5:1 in commercial time.

You did it DESPITE Obama getting the endorsements of several unions, leaders and that fat Oprah.

You did it DESPITE being at the receiving end of an unfair and blatantly biased news media.

No candidate either republican or democrat can be elected to the White House without winning OHIO and you won it hands down!

You won all the big states that DO matter. You have the lead in popular vote and will win the next key state of PA and win the nomination.

We need a fighter like you to make USA strong and respectable. Not a wimp like Obama who does not even know the name of the Russian President.

I just made my next contribution to Hillary! Go on and win the Presidency.
The sour grapes from the Obamabots is so predictable.  Hillary's win is obvious that not everone has taken a drink of the kool aid Obama's wife has been serving up at his cult gatherings.
It's unfortunate, but the longer Clinton stays in this, the worse it is for the party...not that I think she cares...and it may be unfair, but it is a reality.

If she gets the nomination, she loses the general b/c she will have to get it through less-than-above-board means, to be nice - but let's be honest, in the eyes of many new and promising voters, she will be stealing it.

Further - Too many people just can not stomach a vote for her...even Democrats and that number of people is growing. I am a Democrat and a woman and I will vote for the Democrat, no matter who it is - but if it's Hillary, I will have to be sick after I do - we will have a dynasty, another four years of infighting and dirty politics (let's be honest, clearly this is where she is most comfortable), and she will hurt the down ticket (the House and Senate) - If ever anyone could lose the entire election for the Democrats, it is Hillary.

Also, she will hurt Obama's chance of winning should he get the nomination, she is hardening people against him with her ridiculous behavior (victim one day, warrior the next, depending which one the polls say will suit her) - she is using Republican (Rovian) strategies to make inroads, she got despirite and started sliming him, dirtying him up. And with lies and misrepresentations...and the media did NOT call her on it, because she is also playing the victim card with them.  

I have to say, as a woman I am incredibly embarrassed, not only that she would behave in this way...but that other women seem to respond to it. Um, that's not progress ladies, it's just embarrassing. It feeds the negative stereotypes we hoped to overcome...not that she cares.

Now, I expect this kind of behavior from Republicans, but not from the Democratic nominee. She has no problem killing the hope and optimism that so many felt, squashing the best opportunity this country has to be great again in the eyes of all of its citizens and the world and tearing this party apart...just to win. It's not about the good of the country, it's not about protecting anyone, and it's NOT about feminism...it's all about HER.

She simply does not care. If she doesn't get the nomination, she will take the party down with her...the sad part of it is that if she DOES get the nomination, she will take the party down with her.

If you support her, you can argue all you want... but you can't change the reality.

Oh, and congratulations to Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Pat Buchannann and John McCain...I'm sure they are thrilled with her victory last night.
Why has the discussion now turned to why Obama "can't close the deal?"  The question should be why, with all of the Clinton's political connections, history and "experience" they can't secure the nomination, unite the party and "close the deal."  One year ago, Obama seemed like a long shot.  Now, that Clinton is struggling for her political life, somehow this question has been placed at Obama's door.  This  struggle will continue to be a fierce battle because she is a dubious candidate, at best.  With her background and "experience" she should have been expected to coalesce the party long ago.  The fact that she has been unable to do so is stunning and the more significant story.
How depressing!  It's not that my candidate didn't win. It's that negative campaigning and racism triumphed in American politics.  I feel hopeless.  Evil has crushed the first breath of reform that this country has had the opportunity to experience, for many years.  The rich and powerful are victorious.  What's amazing to me is that women are so willing to overlook the negatives just to gratify themselves by having a same gender candidate.  I'm done with this.  People are ignorant.  I guess we get what we deserve.  I’m finished with trying to achieve reason in politics.  I'm returning to my life as a humble farmer as my fields lay fallow.  BTW Obama will never land the negative knock-out punch and he will never run as her VP; he wouldn't sully himself.
Obama '08 (America is a land of fools)
Three sad soles:
Oh me oh my, no brains (Domenico), no heart (Mark),
and who needs to be more shy (Chuck).

I don't think one of you could right a childrens story let alone write about elections.

You three are becoming more like FOX network everyday.  
Why don't you go and do some true reporting.

Your not bias, yeah right.
You three are chicken to go after Obama.  
What's the matter are you scared of Opera?

I know you won't publish this, after all it maybe the truth.
I wonder what the boys in Las Vegas are wagering these days that McCain doesn't even make it to the general election. He looks like a walking corpse. Is that the person we want going around the world as our president?  
Damn, the republicans have a chance. The destructive infighting may allow McCain to win in November. Someone needs to answer the clue phone and stop destroying the democrats chances, not just for the presidency but also for the house and senate.  
Obama-bots want to end the process, "for the good of the party". Which one? Obama has failed miserably with actual democrats, winning on the backs of bamboozled AA's, gullible college kids, and indies and republicans who will vote McCain in November. As to delegates voting based on who won where, do the math. Hillary has won EVERY BIG state except the corrupt state of Illinois (I would LOVE to see Deval, Teddy and Horse face-Kerry voting for HILLARY, just as their constituents have MANDATED.
It's Hillary for the good of the DEMOCRATIC party. You Obama-bots were having your OWN party, now the party's OVER! You were so close you could taste it, now it will turn into a bad taste that you can't get rid of.
Hillary gives hope to millions of Americans and so does Barack. This is a great race with two people who inspire. Let those who demean and denegrate one or the other see that the Democratic Party has the heart of the majority of the nation and the candidates both offer a common direction albeit with differences. John McCain cannot be a vote of anger for any Democrat. He offers nothing more than more Republican retreating into the past and a politic that will only bring this country down. Whatever the outcome, vote Democrat all the way to the White House! Go Hillary. Go Obama!Keep the campaign going. Keep reminding the country day ater day that there is a better way and that way is the Democratic Party. Bring the war to an end, restore fiscal soundess, reestablish our nation as a world peace and justice leader, educate our children, give health care to all, secure our boarders and secure better just relations with our neighbors. The Democrats can do it. UNITE.
The polls are closing on Hillary behind in the matchup with McCain - she is the only democrat that will carry all the vote outside most of the black vote (apparant they won't care to follow if obaa drops out but neither will those votes go to McCain)for our party. She has the better shot in heavier states of like FLorida and California - bot h of those obama lost and will lose again and she also carries the bigger more meaningful states and again, obam,a can't win those. I think people will begin to view him as splitting the democratic party up. Hillary now leads in all the Florida polls agaisnst Mccain. She ahs carried all the true democrat states and obama has not won any of those states. They would flip for McCain given this statistic. I opnly hope he will bow out if he gets behind. And forbid the DNC to retry Mich/Florida cause those people's voices need tob e heard - FL moved theirs up because of the Republicans so it wasn't their fault - people are not going to go to the polls twice and wait in line. what a conflict. It is uphill for obama now due to CLinton contributors and her momentum to be a fighter and not give up. I must say I respect her for that and mopre people are trusting in her for always having the same stance on specifics. There has been no floundering or backing off of her positions and that will cntinue to achieve momentum.
Hillary Clinton, the schoolyard bully gloating about how her dirty tricks intimidated the voters of Ohio. A wonderful symbol to the world for the American People. Ohio, who brought you George Bush, great thinker & statesman, now presents their new blunder Hillary Clinton, the anti-hope.
"All this is called democracy at work. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be our next president". Susan, Miami

No Susan. This is what you call dirt at work. Keep it up. Obama will be taking off the gloves now and will be ripping Senator Clinton a new one. McCain will be sending Hillary a thank you note today for her role in ripping the Dem party apart.
I'm amazed how closely these results have been been tracking with the Axelrod projection, mistakenly released a month ago. Releasing that memo was one of the few amateurish mistakes the Obama campaign has made, but it won't hurt them as the actual results in each state are pretty close to what they saw happening.

The one missed state has been Maine. Axelrod thought Clinton would take that, and was pleasantly surprised it went the other way. But the really impressive thing has been his projection of popular vote percentages and how those would translate to delegates - as month as a month in advance, in the case of last night's contests. He's been within a few points in most states.

So we see this comparison between a steady, non-emotional assessment driving one campaign versus an overly-dramatic roller coaster on the other side.

By the way, this projection goes all the way through the end of the primaries and it has Obama with a comfortable lead in pledged delegates at the end of it.
She will win 90% of the Pennsylvania delegates . Barack is finished as the NAFTA fiasco will come back to haunt him in  all the remaining states. That is the new math.


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=732427

First Read e-mail alerts


Sign up for First Read alerts
The first place for key political news and analysis

Syndicate This Site

Add First Read to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google