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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama camp claims TX delegate victory

Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2008 5:46 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
CHICAGO -- The Obama campaign says it will win the delegate battle in Texas when the primary and caucus results are combined.
 
"Her primary delegate yield will be zero or it will be tied or it will be two. Our yield out of the caucuses should be seven or it could be more than that," campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters at an off-camera briefing.

Plouffe repeatedly said Clinton has lost her opportunity to erase Obama's lead in pledged delegates, which he said should be the definitive factor in deciding who is the party's nominee. Per the campaign's math, there are 611 delegates left to win in the Democratic race, and Clinton needs to win 60% of them to erase Obama's lead. And that's delegates not vote total.

"Last night was a big window that closed for them, particularly because they probably needed to net somewhere between 85 to 70 delegates to retake the pledged delegate lead," Plouffe added.

Plouffe also said that after last night's delegate totals are added in all four states, including the Texas caucuses, Clinton would have yielded a net gain that was less than what Obama took out of the state of Idaho on Feb. 5th.

Saying the math was irrefutable, he added that superdelegates would be reluctant to overturn the will of the voters. And he attempted to paint the Clinton campaign's strategy moving forward as Machiavellian.

"So the Clinton campaign strategy is going to try and run a scorched earth campaign in some way to convince the superdelegates, the party insiders and leaders to overturn the voters, which will be catastrophic for the party," he said.

Plouffe's language on Clinton, mirrored the language of Obama's other advisors today, in that it was far harsher than has been used in the past. Plouffe called Clinton "a deeply flawed candidate," who could not win the independent voters that "provide a pathway to the presidency."
 
Obama's campaign is expected to win handily in Wyoming and Mississippi on the 8th and the 11th, and Plouffe emphasized those states as well as the contests following Pennsylvania, rather than the primary there on April 22nd. He reiterated that it was delegates that mattered not wins in states, but he also admitted that Obama's campaign has less support in Pennsylvania than Clinton and more ground to make up.

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YES SHE WILL GET FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
GO CRY ME A RIVER..OBAMA
The Obama campaign in Mississippi will hold a press conference later today in Jackson calling on U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton to explain derogatory statements made about Mississippi.
In October, Clinton told the Des Moines Register newspaper that "I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman governor, senator or member of Congress. There has got to be something at work here…when you look at the numbers, how can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi? That's not what I see. That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism. That's not the openness I see in Iowa.”
The Obama campaign will call on the Clinton campaign to explain these remarks and a pattern of dismissing Southern states throughout this campaign, according to a press release sent to Mississippi media organizations.
http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080305/NEWS01/80305018
Hillary = the same old story.

Plain and simple we need drastic change or our Union is lost forever. This is our opportunity, our window. If we close it now we will never be here again. Our government, as it stands now is for Corporate America which practices  Socialisim on its highest level. Hillary will be just a continuation of more of the same. They will dress it up to look like we are getting change but it will not come to be. All one needs to do is follow the money on Hillary’s team and it will lead you right to Corporate Socialism. Take from the many to bennefit the few. The Very Wealthy Chosen Few!

Ooh, "deeply flawed" - keep it coming!

By the way, can we talk about Clinton's lobbyist money from the health care/drug companies or her flimsy Senate record please?
Sure Obama-ites, you stayed even, or even won a couple of delegates in Texas. But you just don't get it do you? It's not how many delegates you are ahead of Hillary. It's do you have enough delegates to win the nomination? After the first vote at the convention, those delegates are free to vote for whoever they want, and my guess is, that won't be your guy.
I think Obama should drop out now. The Clinton machine is gaining strength and is going to run over Obama. He should avoid the embarrassment.

Clinton 08!!!
Obama isn't qualified to be President or V.P.

If Clinton picks Obama as her V.P. running mate, then, for the first time in my life, I will vote Republican.

I don't think Hillary will choose a first term rookie Senator as her V.P.

Hillary '08!!
LOL.

BITCH IS THE NEW BLACK.

Clinton 08!!!
Verbally minimizing someone else's victory, is that what Obama's campaign has come down to?
How utterly cheeky.
Bummer!!!  I think all primaries should be on the same day and ALL should be winner take all and NO
caucuses. Lets have Florida and Michigan weigh in.
This is EXACTLY why Hillary will NEVER win!!!!   She can keep on spinning, tear apart the party, con her supporters out of more money, and throw the kitchen sink time and time again, all for nothing because she will NEVER WIN!!!!
Her only hope was to try and bribe the superdelegates, but Obama just got THREE MORE TODAY!!! WHOO HOO!!
Yeah, the tides are turning all right,  the Obama SUPERWAVE is coming to town!!

P.S.  RELEASE YOUR TAXES HILLARY!  WHAT ARE YOU HIDING?
I think the Clinton campaign believes that if they can poison Obama's chances in the general election then the party will have no choice but to turn to Clinton. There is another option, if sandbagged by Clinton, Obama could instruct his delegates to vote for Edwards at the convention.
It would be helpful to democratic voters if MSNBC would find out the source of new arrivals to the primary voting process.  Every state boasts record turnout for democratic primaries.  Who are they showing up for?  Are  they independents? Former republicans?  

Given the exit polls that are showing strong Obama independent, African American, and swing-voter republican support I suspect the answer may be that Obama is the magnet that is bringing voters out of the woodwork.  If this is true and can be substantiated, it is strong support for Hillary to back out of the race given that Rasmussen Reports has shown daily polls over the past month indicating that Obama would beat McCain and Hillary would lose to him in the general election.
So will there be a redclaration of who exactly 'won' Texas if the delegate count goes in favor of Obama?
This is good news to we disheartened Obama supporters.
I live in a state next door to Wyoming and for what it's worth,  I think Wyoming will go strong for Barrack.  People out here have a strong hatred for Hillary.  Anyway...looks like it's not over yet.  And once again...where in the heck is Gore, Carter, Biden, Richardson and Edwards?  Their neutrality is costing the party dearly.  Come on guys, throw in with Obama.  Obama is the future of the Dems.  You've got to know that!
Your Math is great!  Keep up the good work for the people of America.  Thank you for caring.
He can't win either on delegates. It'll take superdelegates and she will be the nominee. Count MI and FL and she is the clear leader and will have enough delegates without supers. Come on voters and lets put Hillary on top.
why does the future President Obama have to be negative like Hillary to win delegates. i would rather see a positive campaign and debates. Hillary is no Match for John McCain.
YES WE CAN!!! Senator Obama, Stay on your game, which is
CHANGE and unity for ALL Americans, and don't make deals with the Clinton devil. Never trust her.

OBAMA/EDWARDS 08.
Let's wait until the remainder of the states vote, including that BIG ONE of Pennsylvania, before we start counting up just who has more votes here.  And let's be realistic... whether you're Clinton or Obama, you're going to argue whatever "rules" make you the winner, be it the most delegates, the most states, the most popular votes, whatever.  Obama is no different than any other politician: he wants to WIN, and he will do ANYTHING TO WIN.  Anyone who thinks otherwise is naive, stupid, or just plain unable to remember that the man comes out of Chicago politics.  Grow up.  This is the big time.
Clinton is WORSE than a flawed candidate. She has had several second-chances in this election and consistently underperformed.

Her first firewall- NH, ended up in a ZERO delegate advantage. Her second firewall- Super Tuesday, ended up with a ZERO delegate advantage- actually a minus. Her third firewall- TX and OH, ended up with 4 more delegates. Now, another firewall is Pennsylvania, where she'll likely end up with .... let me think- ZERO more delegates. Meanwhile Obama remains wide ahead with 156 delegates.

The Clintons are deeply troubled if they still can't get it. If Obama's the nominee, he will win all the states Democrats normally win and then he'll win Virginia, swing states and about two more red states to re-draw the political map. That's far superior to Clinton's tried and failed 47% strategy.

DON'T BE FOOLED, DEMOCRATS! OBAMA IS THE REAL DEAL!
Three weeks ago, Hillary Clinton had 20-25 point leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Texas. She can talk about a "great victory," but the fact is she won close contests. She cannot win more delegates than Obama right now unless she gets the Party to give her Michigan and Florida in violation of the game rules everyone played under, and she gets superdelegates to ignore the popular will. Is she willing to do such sleazy things, despite the damage it would do to the Party and democratic principles? Of course!
Barry, Barry, Barry come on and open your eyes what are you doing? Go home we don't want you. Your speechs are old. You can't win against McCain, no experience and you lie about NAFTA. The media can only bale you out so long.
Obama @3 a.m. Hello is that you Rezko?
You lost - get over it!

Obama ouspent Hillary 2 to 1 and still LOST!  

You go Hillary!!!
I am amazed that any political professional says after this primary season that "Obama cannot win the historically important swing states...".  He hasn't run against John McCain in any of them!  

All Hillary's victories in these particular states prove is that she is liked a bit better than Barack right now in those areas ... but says NOTHING as to how these same staes will react to Barack versus John McCain, especially given his very unpopular position on Iraq and where tax adjustments should go.  

These very "critical" states are exactly the sweet spot for the agreed to Democratic message that both the Democratic candidates hold.

ZThis is the real messsage that the superdelegates need to weigh, when compared to the electorates votes on delegates under the rules made by the party
Obama can't get there either. It's going to the convention.
Facts are facts.  Clinton will also end up with less of a net delegate gain than Obama got from Hawaii alone.  Obama's win in Virginia (a "small" state according to Clinton?) gave him more than DOUBLE the net delegates Clinton will get from her wins in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island.
Would America Please Wake Up and see what is really going on with this race. Expecially black america, our young black men in this generation can finally see that there is hope for a black man to have the highest office in america and any other race of people will realize there is hope and that the country is not racist like the world thinks.

Since Martin Luther King dream his children and all children of all races will see it come to pass less than three or four hundred years from the time he spoke it or even had the dream. All people want and desire is for equality in this great and rich nation.

Do the same things you get the same results for a different result you have to do things differently. Change is what America needs.

If Hillary wins my vote goes to John McCain and so will others in America. I am tired of the Clintons it's time for someone else in the White House. Will she go PMS on America because Hormones has a lot to do with women's decisions and attitude or is she going through the change of life.

America is ready for another race to run the country but not ready for a woman to run; it's not your time. I guarantee people will either cast their vote for McCain or not vote at all so i hope the DNC really consider who can beat John McCain in Nov 08

Thank You
When is the Obama campaign going to remind the press of Hsu? We've been bombarded with Rezko, but Hsu gave 5 times as much money to Clinton and Hsu was convicted. Twice. What is Clinton's point? That Obama is almost as bad as she is?
When is the Obama campaign going to remind the press of Hsu? We've been bombarded with Rezko, but Hsu gave 5 times as much money to Clinton and Hsu was convicted. Twice. What is Clinton's point? That Obama is almost as bad as she is?
I don't know how anyone stops the looming disaster.  Terry McAulif (sp?) can spin the super delegates anyway he wants (and he does a heck of a job), but I cannot imagine that there won't be a much worse backlash to the democrats and their chances in the upcoming election if they go against the elected delegate totals than if they 'vote their conscience' and end up going with Hillary.

The Hillary camp really sounds like they are walking the higher ground with their justifications, but I think they are dreaming.  I can't see any way that if they take this election from Obama (short of a major change of heart from the remaining regular voters), that there won't be a long term Party disaster in spite of Bush's unpopularity.

Fine let them run through to the end, but 'stealing' the nomination in the end will ultimately bite them big time.  In that case, I'm betting it will be Obama running against President McCain in 2012.

Hillary Rodham Clinton has not denominated Wyoming and Mississippi meaningful.  Ergo, they are not.
Obama should stay positive. He is likely to be the nominee when all is said and done. He would benefit from not playing this "attack" game.  
Actually it appears her grand net delegate gain after all the dust settles from yesterday will be around *FOUR*.  If the current caucus numbers hold up.

Clinton delegates won yesterday, offset by Obama's, are 16 (OH 9, RI 5, TX pri 2), and Obama's delegates offset by Clinton's are 12 (TX cau 9, VT 3), therefore a net gain of 4.  

Which means she's had her fun, she should now pack up the confetti & face the fact that she did NOT make a dent in Obama's lead.  And pull out before giving McCain a free 4 months to set loose the GOP machinery on us. If she gives a damn about the party &not just herself, that is.
Somebody really needs to investigate the allegations of how many Rush Limbaugh/Radical Right followers took his advice and voted for Hillary in the primaries on March 4. Some of the exit poll responses seem off, such as importance of race. Also, couldn't that explain Hillary's weakness in the Texas caucuses, if the spoilers voted in the primary but didn't want to show themselves in public? The irony is that Obama supporters might have enabled this voting bloc by making sure everyone got to vote, especially the party crossovers. There's some real dirt hiding in these numbers. It sounds crazy, but crazier things have happened in US politics. All we need is one voter who identifies himself in public as taking Rush's advice.
"Plouffe said that after last night's delegate totals are added in all four states, Clinton would have yielded a net gain that was less than what Obama took out of the state of Idaho on Feb. 5th."

Tic toc tic toc, time's running out HRC supporters.
Hillary will eventually need to leave - even if they have to use a cane around the neck at some point.
I think it is ironic that the Obama campaign is saying that Clinton should not "overturn the voters" by asking super delegates to vote for her.  In Texas, Clinton won the popular vote, yet will not win the delegate battle due to arcane Democratic Party rules.  The super delegates are part of the process, just like the Texas Two Step which greatly aided Obama.

You can't have it both ways.
Hil'liar was on CNN spreading more lies:She claimed to have secured Nothern Ireland peace accord which,as we all know,was the sole work of PM Blair & the accomplishment was only made 2 years ago where Bill failed;Hil'liar seems to confuse being on trips to get funds for her husband from questionable donors & being on diplomatic missions.We all know "China" wasn't about women right but funding Clinton political career & later library.WHERE IS THE TAX RETURN,THE LEAST WE CAN ASK FOR NOW!
"Her primary delegate yield will be zero or it will be tied or it will be two. Our yield out of the caucuses should be seven or it could be more than that,"

and this makes her the Comeback Kid?....HAHAHAHAH!!!
Another OBAMISTA pile.  KIDS, you got your asses whupped in OH and TX.  Spin the facts anyway you choose, YOU GOT YOUR ASSES WHUPPED.
Obamistas, as you fervently await the second coming, remember: HRC is still out there, and doing well.  An Obama victory, is a Pyrrhic Victory.
Clinton does not care about the party.Earlier on when she won a caucus,she gave credence to them.Now that she can't win any-it's oh they don't matter.Which is it.At first I would've been happy with either,but after her behavior,I will never,ever,vote for her.Especially after her and Bill siding with Rush Limbaugh of all people to "bloody" Obama by getting republicans to vote for her.And Bill going on Rush's show?!No democrat should behave that way.It is outrageous and hurts the whole party.I think it's very telling what kind of people they are to do that.Sleep with the enemy to get votes.Disgusting.
The Clinton's had me fooled,but not any longer.
As far as delegates,no she can't catch up.And after all the personal attacks there's no way Obama will have her as a vp.The dnc is weak because they let the Clinton's do whatever they want.Howard Dean,Pelosi,all weaklings!
Clinton clearly is America's Biggest Loser, especially in claiming victory while being firmly in the jaws of a handful of delegates.
Hillary has a serious math problem. She can win every contest left and still not catch up with Obama. The only way she can win is if the super delegates steal the nomination for her. Obama's lead is too strong. Further, a contributing factor as to why Obama lost three races last night was simple. The media was complicit along with Hillary’s vile negative Republican style attacks. Every channel I turned to had Hillary. The fear mongering remake ad was played non stop as opposed to Obama's response ad. The media was obsessed with creating a come back kid. Continuing this cycle will only damage the Democratic Party and give the win to McCain. The media benefits from this nonsense.
Way to stay 'positive' Obama camp.  

Clinton 2008!
Why doesn't the media say it as it is. Obama won Texas. This is a contest for delegates, not momentum. Additionally, no amount of momentum could get past the delegate lead that he has secured. The party needs unity, and I for one like both candidates. Sometimes I think it is the media that is dragging this out to keep high ratings and high profits. In the end I think only McCain will profit.
I would agree with everything Plouffe said. First, I would like to see the Clinton campaign explain how they plan to get to 2,025 delegates - state by state and how many supers they think they can swing, and second, if their plan is reliant on the supers overturning the will of the voters then how would they possibly win the Obama supporters support after "stealing" the nomination.  I just don't see them winning the nomination without doing so much damage that McCain would just stroll into the white house.
If Hillary closes the gap to within 100 pledged delegates, she could argue that she has the momentum.  If she wins PA, she'll make a strong case that she performs better in make-or-break swing states.  Obama's strategy was to chip away at Clinton by netting pledged delegates in any state he could.  Several of those states (KS, ND, UT, ID, AK, NE) held caucuses in which only a small percentage of the electorate participated.  The problem is those states offer zero electoral advantage in the Fall and none of those would go for Obama anyway.  Given that the delegate race is still close, other factors will be considered when picking the nominee than simply "who's ahead".
More spin from the Obama camp, we all know that. Obama just could not take the pressure and it would be a joke to pit him against McCain. Hillary's ads just pointed out the problems with Obama and left it up to the voters to decide. No buyer's remorse.
Don't forget Michigan and Florida. It ain't over 'til it's over.


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