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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: Can he afford a knife fight?

Posted: Friday, March 07, 2008 9:01 AM by Mark Murray

The New York Times’ Brooks: "Now, the Obama campaign is facing another test. There are a few ways to interpret the losses in Texas and Ohio. One is demographic. He didn’t carry the groups he often has trouble with — white women, Latinos, the less educated. The other is tactical. Clinton attacked him, and the attacks worked. The consultants, needless to say, gravitate toward the tactical interpretation. And once again the cry has gone up for Obama to get tough. This advice gets wrapped in metaphors. Obama has to start ‘throwing punches’ or ‘taking the gloves off.’”

“Beneath the euphemisms, what the advice really means is that Obama has to start accusing Clinton of things.” Brooks goes on to write that Obama is making a big mistake: "[T]he Clinton people will draw them every step of the way. Clinton can’t compete on personality, but a knife fight is her only real hope of victory. She has nothing to lose because she never promised to purify America. Her campaign doesn’t depend on the enthusiasm of upper-middle-class goo-goos. On Thursday, a Clinton aide likened Obama to Ken Starr just to badger them on.”

“As the trench warfare stretches on through the spring, the excitement of Obama-mania will seem like a distant, childish mirage. People will wonder if Obama ever believed any of that stuff himself. And even if he goes on to win the nomination, he won’t represent anything new. He’ll just be a one-term senator running for president. In short, a candidate should never betray the core theory of his campaign, or head down a road that leads to that betrayal. Barack Obama doesn’t have an impressive record of experience or a unique policy profile. New politics is all he’s got. He loses that, and he loses everything. Every day that he looks conventional is a bad day for him."

The Boston Globe: "As the Democratic primary race enters a new, critical phase, Senator Barack Obama's campaign is wrestling with how to respond forcefully to Hillary Clinton's recent attacks on his record without violating the positive, uplifting spirit at the core of his message." More: "But Obama's arsenal is limited by his insistence that his campaign not engage in below-the-belt attacks. Asked by reporters Tuesday how far he was willing to go, Obama said he would not 'change the tone of our campaign' or 'do things that I'm not comfortable with.'"

Rolling Stone endorsed Obama and calls him “The New Hope,” while Clinton appears on the cover of Time as “The Fighter.”

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wow Rolling Stone. they have been around a while  yes??  Obama will have to send out his mean minions so he can look squeeky clean. I think the press may be watching closer now .They arent as stupid as he thinks.Obama got a warning for pressuring at last election. This proves they are finally watching and people can feel safer voteing as they would like.hmmmm
Hillary can shoot back immediately. One of her attributes is thinking on her feet. Remember Obama shooting her with Wal-Mart slap??How many mins till he got hit with Resko? It prob. wouldnt have even come up except for his slap.So he better weigh his slaps and be able to take the next blow.There is still a lot of ammo in the chest I am sure.
Surrogates, surrogates, surrogates!  Obama needs Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and a whole host of other very intelligent, well-connected supporters to come out and remind the American people that the Clinton's laundry list is a mile long and the dirtiest in town.

There is no reason that Barack Obama should have to abandon his message of hope, though I would agree it needs some revamping.

Be careful, David Axelrod...  You've done mighty good so far, but I would urge you to be careful!
The most obvious way to interpret Texas is that it was a WIN.

Delegates are what count, not popular vote.

Just Ask Al Gore.
I think the challenge for Obama is the balance between not changing the tone of his campaign (on one side) and showing a willingness to engage and be tough on the other side.

I think he has to keep forcing Ms. Clinton to focus on the issues (which after all still matter), he has to himself show his substance on the issues, and I think most of all he has to continue to challenge Americans to reject nastiness, traditional machine backroom politics, and devisiveness.  She is giving him plenty of ammo for that last bit.  Do we really want to elect a President who will roll over anyone in her way to win an election?  I know I don't.  At the end of January, I could see voting for either candidate.  Now, as a lifelong Democrat, I can honestly see abandoning the party if her tactics are allowed to railroad the American public (e.g., the blackmailing over FL and MICH, the backroom politics in Philly, the insistence that superdelegates should vote her in even if she loses States and popular vote and pledged delegates, the complete discounting of the great many states that voted for Barack).  That is something I cannot support.

I think also what Obama has on his side is the fact that the Republicans seem to want to run against Clinton.

Independents and Republicans and (at this point) a fair number of Dems won't vote for Clinton after this nasty battle.  If Obama can stay on message, he will lose some Clinton Dems, but he will make it up (and then some in Independents and cross-over Repubs.  Assuming he wins cleanly (and I can't see him winning any other way), most Dems will still vote for him.  If Clinton does not win cleanly, she will lose a lot of Dems without picking up Indys, and Repubs.

He needs to emphasize that point.

I think his campaign may need a little time to regroup.  Contrast that with the discord in camp Clinton.  But they have some time.

I am feeling horrified at what the Clintons are doing.  It is looking Red in November if Obama is forced out by the machine.  I hate to say that, but that's genuinely how I feel (and I am a life long Dem).
BELOW THE BELT CONVENTIONAL POLITICIAN??

NO, that's not how he's playing the game (although, as his  supporter I wouldn't mind if he did at this time.)

Conventional politician would not be 'raising questions', he/she would be doing the histrionic dance of being dramatically wounded and then pointing and shouting at the faults of the other.

Raising appropriate and OBVIOUS questions is not engaging in trench warfare.  Obama wouldn't have to do this if the PRESS WAS DOING THEIR JOB.

Imagine how the Republican machine would dissect Hillary AND Bill's lives if she were to somehow manage to get the nomination:

*Rose Law Firm
*Cattle Futures
*Poor Vince Foster
*Why Hillary had FBI files in her possession--and had no clearance.  (The fact that she had no clearance is further proof that she was NOT  a 'co-president')
*Hillarycare Secrecy--and ergo failure
*MEGAdonors with fishy backgrounds to Clinton petprojects (and for which Hillary probably recieves pay for her position has Treasurer, etc.)

Obama has simly requested her to prove what she says:

TRANPARENCY
--fine, why not show us your tax returns

STRONG as MCCAIN (and apparently better than Obama) w/b as COMMANDER IN CHIEF
--fine, why not illustrate your foreign affairs 'experience', instead of being vague.

This is not even CLOSE to what the GOP will pull out on her.
This is a total crock of crap!

Obama acting tough is not going to portray him as a typical politician.

It will harden him for the GE.  I look forward for him to bring a gun to Clinton's knife fight.
Hillary is trying to bring Barack to her level and Ohio and Texas allowed it by not voting her out. She is proving that fear and divisivness work and that she can use that to make Obama weak and unelectable as well as unwilling to fight. Or she can make him fight and than say he is just like every other politicain. I think he should stay positive and keep his head above water, but let somenone else do his dirty work. Maybe someone not exactly connected with the campaign. That way his hands stay clean and she gets the thorough @$$ kickin she deserves.

Go Obama!!!!  Hillary, Just go away!!!
Democratic leaders are making a big mistake. What is drawing in America to Obama is that he is above the mud. If he is forced to go negative, they will be destroying the brightest star in the democratic sky.
Clinton has very high negatives going into the general election, which will essentially unify the GOP.  Whereas, Obama is inspirational and transforming presence in the political arena.  As long as Obama can attack Clinton's weaknesses on various issues in positive and convincing way, he still maintains his aura of change and hope.
This is total bullshit. Obama is running to change things after he gets to Washington. He tried to play Mr. Nice guy and he lost out for it.  He will not keep his support if he doesn't fight back.  He's already shown his diplomatic skills and now he needs to show his Chicago kick ass skills.  There is no human being on earth that's one dimensional; why should he claim to be. His supporters need to know that he's balanced and can be tough when the need calls for it.  Clinton is a dumpster dog that will pimp her daughter if that's what it takes to get into the White House.  When she gave up her self-respect and dignity, and allowed a young inexperienced female intern to be abused by her husband, that told her entire story right there! She's a power hungry demented dog! End of comment!
Lisa from New Britain -  Hillary supporters feel the same as you. If a man with an inferior, non - existent track record is picked over a woman who is proven, many will vote for McCain.  There is no way Obama will hold on to Regan Democrats in the General Election.   I personally have serious issues with his work ethic.  He was known in the Illinois State Senate as ambitious and developed a  reputation for ducking tough issues (he was in Hawaii for a key gun control vote).  He's got way too much to prove to get my vote in the General election.  Ducking his committe chairman responsibilities in the US Senate does not help his case and confirms what I already think - he is more interested in building a persona than in working for change.
I understand your political passion and the huge disappointmet you Obama supporters will face when he loses, but the idea that droves of people are going to decide now who they will or will not vote for in November is not credible. You may personally decide, but November will be decided by a Democrat and a Republican showing their best on the same stage, and we arent't at that point in the campaign.
Pundits are doing a disservice to readers by suggesting this idea despite the fact that history and human nature totally discredit it. Stay in the truth business, if that's where you started.
I am so disturbed by all of this. Obama and Clinton should not be fighting one another but discussing their platforms. I think he will intelligently require what is needed for disclosure from the Clintons. That in my opinion does not contribute to a knife fight.

The Clinton campaign is turning all of Obama's positives into negatives. That is what they consider to be politics as usual. I am tired of that and them. Having the "Clinton Confusion and Chaos" in the White House again is more than I can bear.

I think Obama is an intelligent, resourceful, and problem solving individual who will find a way to deal with all of the Clinton negativity while maintaining his message and dignity. From what I have seen and read about him, that is what he does well. I urge all of us who support him to continue to do so even more. We need a change and a new perspective in the White house and in the world. He is the one.  
You live by the media and you die by the media.  Obama has enjoyed great press coverage but his empty message of change is catching up with him.  When pressed for details, his great oratory turns into stammers and long pauses.  As Bill Richardson said in one debate, since when did experience become a negative for a candidate.
I agree with Lisa from New Britain, CT. She is not alone in her opinion. I have spoke to quite a few people who feel the same.
Mary OK, he has an incredible track record, has more legislative experience than  Hillary, and he's not willing to do anything to win. Sorry honey, but you have no high road with that woman with her 49% disapproval rating as a candidate.
Lisa, I think there are a lot of us out there who agree with you.  My husband and I are both life long Dems and we feel the same way--this cannot be good for the long-term prospects of the party.  All this talk that she has the experience needed and McCain has the exerpeince needed, but Obama does not is crazy and will certainly come back to haunt her if she does succeed in plowing her way to the nomination.  I question why Obama doesn't point out that he certainly has more experience than Bill Clinton did when he took office.
   
I agree with Lisa from New Britain. I am also a democrat and long time Clinton supporter, but I am appalled at the Rovian tactics she is now employing against a fellow Democrat. This is the very kind of politics I had hoped to put behind us with a Democratic win in November. Although I am an Obama supporter, I would have voted for Hillary in January had he lost the nomination fairly...but not now. I urge Obama to stay cool and not to get down in the mud with her. It is not worth sacrificing your principals and the party just to win a primary fight. That is her game. I also see a red November.A real tragedy for the Democrats and the country. We had an historic opportunity to unite and expand the party and now, I fear, it's gone...thanks to Hillary's blind ambition.
It is clear that VOTERS will not decide the nominee.  Neither candidated will be able clinch without the superdelegates .  The remaining primary contests will be exercises in futility.  There will be no clear winner.  The SUPERDELEGATES need to step in NOW to push one candidate or the other over the top.  The Party cannot afford to go down that negative road.
It's YOUR MOVE, SUPERDELGATES.  YOU NEED TO SETTLE THIS, for the good of the party, for the good of the country and for the good of democracy.
Obama, the smarmy know-nothing, will regret the day he said Hillary "is getting desperate now."

Hillary knocked him out in Texas and Ohio -- period. And she will absolutely, positively flatten him in Pennsylvania.

She has DEFINED HIM.  You idiot Obama supporters think you know everything.  Here is one thing that you don't know about politics.  She who defines her opponent first wins.  Ask John Kerry and Michael Dukakis.

Obama's remark was an insult to all women of all colors.  And HE is the desperate one now.



Clintons, Pauls and Jim Levin sit together at the Hollywood Gala Farewell Concert Salute to President Clinton , August 12, 2000.

It was the largest event ever produced for a US President in Hollywood, it was the largest private concert produced closed to the public and it was the largest fundraising event ever produced for a Senator. It also became a federal crime when Hillary Clinton’s campaign hid the source and amount of Peter Paul’s $1.2 million plus expenditures for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.



We kind of already knew Obama would lose those states ... He does not need to go negative to MAINTAIN his lead.  What inspires me is how quickly he closed the projected gap.  Hillary has precious few demographics, which she holds onto with a tight fist and yet Obama can reach out and appeal to these people (ever see Hillary win ground with the black vote?  How about the young vote?).

Obama's appeal is not based on race, sex, or political affiliations.  He is appealing to ALL people.  He will win in the general election because MCCain does not have the full support of the Republican party.  Republicans who saw McCain abandon his morals to support a "party line" (that's us) will not vote for him ... unless it is a choice of Hillary vs McCain ... then we will take the lesser of the two evils.  If Obama loses the political system has failed, he is the best canidate for all people, not just democrats.

~Republicans 4 Obama
OBAMA ATTACKS SHOULD FOCUS ON CLINTON POLITICS OF THE '90s.

The backroom deals with Gingrich is just like her relationship with McCain.

Deals on The Clinton Crime Bill and The Welfare Reform Act and of course, "Don't Ask / Don't Tell" all benefited the REPS and The Clintons to the detriment of the core DEM consitutencies they were intended to help.

You could continue that with NAFTA and most policies and legislation they advanced.
Looks like Barack will win Texas after all, thanks to the Texas caucuses.  Where's the Press on this?
http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/hillary-wins-texas-oh-waitno-she-didnt/

Looks like Hillary was responsible for the Canadian/Nafta debaucle after all.  Where's the Press on this?  Click on the word "round-up"
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/the-truth-about.html

What's all this nonsense about Rezko, which has been explained and fact-checked.  Rezko's current legal troubles have nothing to do with Barack, but the media keeps harping on it.  On the other hand, the Clinton's have an upcoming lawsuit against them regarding campaign funds fraud, and yet no coverage in the media on this.  Where's the outrage?  
http://www.peterfpaul.com/2008/03/05/media-protects-hillarys-role-in-bill-clintons-civil-fraud-case-in-los-angeles/
Clinton is better on the issues.  Exit polling from OH and TX indicate the people think she is more ready to lead, that she has a better healthcare plan and a better economic plan.  I think she had to go negative in part because Obama's plan was to just agree with her at the debates.  Now, she is forcefully pointing out the differences between them.  Obama is starting to do the same thing.  

Hillary 08
wHY ISNT THE STORY ABOUT HILLARY BEING THE ONE WHO GOT IN TOUCH WITH THE CANADIAN OFFICIALS BEING  TALKED ABOUT? OBAMA WAS SLAMMED FOR IT, WHAT ABOUT CLINTON? COMEON CHRIS, JOE AND KEITH!!!!! WHERE'S THE FAIR PLAY HERE?
Obama is in a bit of a dilemma.
He's run his campaign on a new kind of politics called honesty with the idea that we need to fix Washington.  Hillary has not just gone negative, but out and out lied.  When she says something, people take her at her word no matter how blattent it is.
He needs to find a way to get people to actually think and examine what her campaign is putting out there.  Ohio proves that this is not very easy.
I think Obama hasn't been pointing things out because he gives more credit to the voters and the press than maybe we really deserve.
Is it Obama's job to expose everything that is said?  Should he have to go negative?  Or is somebody else dropping the ball here?  What is the roll of the press here?  If they just repeat what Hillary says, is that no better than an advertisement?  Did she have to buy that advertisement?
When she says, "I've already been vetted, but Obama hasn't."  Isn't that just code for saying she will tell us how to vote?
If Obama is smart he will concentrate his campaign on McCain and completely ignore Hillary.  She will sputter and screech and accuse him of all kinds of calumny and he will smile and say, "Mr. Clinton is naturally quite excited and concerned because of the importance of the campaign.  I certainly understand and sympathize."  Then he will get back to McCain, stay above the dirt-throwing and look really Presidential.  She will screech louder and finally look hysterical.  He will leave her in the dirt, which is where she likes to be.  
But under no conditions should he reply in kind.  She will have a hissy and look like the Wicked Witch of the West.
Dredbear in Texas


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