First thoughts: How ugly can it get?
Posted: Friday, March 07, 2008 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** How ugly can it get? Doesn't the Clinton campaign want a knife fight? Just as David Brooks notes today, if it drags Obama down to trench warfare, then he loses his place on the nice-guy pedestal. So perhaps it wasn’t surprising that the Clinton camp accused Obama’s team yesterday of acting like Ken Starr, as it began raising legitimate questions about Clinton’s tax records and her actual national security experience. But the Obama folks returned the fire when key adviser Samantha Power called Hillary Clinton a “monster” in an interview with The Scotsman, which was then amplified by Drudge. Power immediately apologized. No doubt that these two campaigns don’t like each other, and as the Clinton-Obama race has gone on for 13-plus months, the campaigns and their candidates are bound to let their frustrations out (remember that Myrtle Beach debate?). But as Brooks points out, Obama -- with both his delegate lead and his politics of hope -- does have more to lose as things get ugly.
*** The cowboy way: With Saturday’s Wyoming caucuses and then Mississippi’s primary three days later, Obama has the opportunity to cut into -- or erase -- the delegates that Clinton gained on Junior Super Tuesday. At stake in Wyoming are 12 pledged delegates, and the majority of caucus sites open at either 11:00 am ET or noon ET; the latest sites open at 6:00 pm ET (Teton County). Presidential preference votes will be held about 12 minutes into the caucuses, right after Clinton and Obama are “nominated,” “seconded” and two- to- three-minute appeals arguments are made for each candidate. The way the caucuses work, though, varies. Some counties do divisions like in Iowa but without realignments or thresholds. Others use ballots.
*** PA vs. NC: Speaking of upcoming contests, the press has completely bought into Pennsylvania as the next big contest. But there's another very large delegate prize two weeks later -- North Carolina. What's interesting about the two states is that one is a Clinton stronghold (PA) and one is an Obama stronghold (NC). Both campaigns are trying to downplay the other state, but shouldn’t we be judging the two together? Who performs better on the other's turf? The two states represent two different theories of the general election the two campaigns are pushing forward. Clinton's campaign is basically saying they'll use the Gore-Kerry map and get to 270 (win OH or FL). Obama's saying he'll create a new map with states like North Carolina being put in play. This will be the ultimate decision of the superdelegates -- which path do they want the party to go on? Eugene Robinson also makes this good point today: "But it's an odd kind of momentum that we're being asked to appreciate. Apparently, the contests in Wyoming and Mississippi won't count if Obama wins them, because that's what everyone expects. The April 22 primary in Pennsylvania will definitely count if Clinton wins, however, even though that's what everyone expects. To paraphrase Orwell, some states are more equal than others."
*** A compromise for Michigan? The big papers today are flush with stories about what to do with Florida and Michigan. A top Democrat in Michigan tells NBC’s Andrea Mitchell that both campaigns are communicating through Michigan party leaders and zeroing in on a plan for so-called "firehouse caucuses" or caucus-primaries in May or June to redo the Michigan voting. Democrats in Michigan say they have a tradition of voting this way in the past. And since people come to firehouses, vote and leave in a closed way, it would not violate Hillary Clinton's opposition to traditional caucuses where people have only a set time to show up and openly discuss their preferences. But how does the state get around Gov. Granholm's objection that Michigan taxpayers foot the bill? Per Mitchell, sources say the candidates would be asked to raise the money, and there is no legal obstacle to them finding private funds for the redo. If Michigan does agree to a redo -- and because Obama's name wasn't on the ballot before, it's probably a given it will -- what kind of pressure will Florida feel to follow suit?
*** The DNC’s money woes: One reason why we shouldn’t expect the DNC to foot the bill for do-overs in Florida and Michigan? It doesn’t have that much money. As the New York Times writes, the DNC “ended 2007 nearly flat broke, with cash of $2.9 million and debts of $2.2 million. Since then it has raised some money, paid down debt and managed to put $3.7 million in its piggy bank. This compares, however, with $25 million that the Republican National Committee has in cash on hand, after having raised $97 million since the beginning of 2007.” With the Clinton-Obama race perhaps going on until the convention, the DNC will have to be the principle vehicle to take on McCain, and so it will need every cent it has. The lack of money for the DNC is a real head-scratcher. Check out how flush the DSCC and the DCCC are, as well as the two presidential candidates. Why can't the DNC raise any money? It's mind-boggling, frankly, and the only thing keeping the GOP in the game financially. Meanwhile, McCain's putting his imprint on the RNC by naming three finance operatives and one political operative.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Mississippi before heading to Wyoming, where she visits Cheyenne and Casper; McCain stumps in Georgia and then raises money in New Orleans and Phoenix; and Obama, in Wyoming holds a town hall in Casper and an evening rally in Laramie. Also, Bill Clinton lays the groundwork in Pennsylvania with two stops there before going to Mississippi.
Countdown to Wyoming: 1 day
Countdown to Mississippi: 4 days
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 46 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 242 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 319 days
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