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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Those FL and MI superdelegates

Posted: Friday, March 07, 2008 12:38 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
One of the biggest signs of Obama's momentum since February 5 has been all the superdelegates he's picked since then. According to our count, Obama has added 43 to his superdelegate total after Super Tuesday, while Clinton has lost six. In fact, even after Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas, it's worth noting that the Clinton campaign hasn't publicly announced a new superdelegate since February 7 (that person was Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas).

Overall, per NBC's count, Clinton has a 254-215 superdelegate lead over Obama.

Yet in the discussion about holding do-overs in Florida and Michigan, this fact has largely been ignored: If those states' delegations are in play, Clinton will be able to add to her superdelegate lead. According to our list, Clinton has the support of 13 superdelegates from Florida and Michigan (including Florida Sen. Bill Nelson and Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm), while Obama has the support of six from those two states.

If they get seated, Florida and Michigan have 25 and 29 superdelegates, respectively.

Of course, when talking about superdelegates, it's important to keep this in mind: A superdelegate's support isn't set in stone; it can change anytime between now and the convention.

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Hillary refused so she may exploit any loophole.

michigan (Sent Friday, March 07, 2008 1:03 PM)

well duh!!

it all a game.

CHECKMATE


patty,sd,ca (Sent Friday, March 07, 2008 1:09 PM)

Patty, dear.  You missed the point.  

If Ms. Clinton makes an agreement and breaks it for a sleazy political gain, how well will she be received?  This is exactly how the Clintons handed the Congress and presidency over to the Republicans.  Al Gore would have become president if his association to the Clintons not erroded his chance to win.

Now go away Patty.  I think I hear your babysitter calling.

HOW'S THIS FOR A SOLUTION TO THE FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN VOTE MESS. IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO COUNT THEASE LEGINIMATE ELECTIONS. THEN WE WILL NOT COUNT ANY ,ELECTION BECAUSE THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS THEN CORRUPT. I VOTED, MY FELLOW FLORIDIAN'S VOTED IN A LEGAL ELECTION.THEASE VOTES SHOULD STAND,AND THE DELEGATES SEATED AT THE CONVENTION. IF NOT A NEW ELECTION,not caucus  MUST TAKE PLACE, PRIOER TO JUNE 11,2008. P.S. IT WAS A REPUBLICAN GOVENOR--CRIST AND REPUBLICAN LEGLESLATOR WHO MADE THIS DAM DECISION. IF YOU WANT TO TAKE IT OUT ON ANYONE ,I SUGGEST YOU GIVE THEM A CALL IN TALLAHASSEE,FLORIDA. HOWEVER GOV. CRIST MAY BE OUT OF THE OFFICE AT THE RITZ-CARLTON IN NAPLES, FLORIDA ..$2,500.00 PLATE MCCAIN FUNRAISER LUNCH. SO HE MAY HAVE TO RETURN YOUR CALL.OH BY THE WAY CRIST IS INTERVIEWING FOR THE V.P. POSITION.
I'm genuinely worried for Hillary. She's looking really stressed. I'm afraid the next time this thing takes a turn she doesn't like she'll go postal. Anyone in close proximity (physically & politically) could get hurt. It brings a new reason why she should have security guards around her. I'm not being sarcastic, I'm really worried about her.
------------------------------------------------
Also: Is "patty" (on this thread) a typical Clinton supporter? What does THAT say?
What worse is that patty sd, ca reposts her laim posting time and again!

"If Obama can't stand the heat..."
Clinton needs to changer her party affiliation and run as McCain's VP. She sure is acting like a Republican. Democratic Superdelegates, I hope you're watching. She's dissing the party.
Don't engage that patty freak. Just like her hero, fairness to another Democrat & winning the general election are concepts she doesn't comprehend.

This is why Obama is what we need:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmUUYo9o9eg
Sure, well be glad to count the votes in Florida and Michigan.  Just not the pledged delegates that the votes represent.  Little children must learn that when they break the rules there are consequences.  Sure, you can make it better, by showing remorse, a little humility, and by accepting responsibility for your actions--little children--BY PAYING FOR A RE-DO.

GROW-UP
Hey "Barry" -- Don't worry your pretty little head over it.  Obama has plenty of back bone -- it takes a certain kind of inner strength and serenity not to respond in kind to what Clinton is dishing out.  

In fact, I suspect that if Obama looked Vladimir Putin in the eye, it would be Putin who blinked.


Change we can really believe in --


Obama/Webb 08
Enjoy your (brief) moment Hillary supporters.

Obama will be Winner. Hillary will be Whinner.

she followed the rules.  she didn't campaign in florida!  they broke records with their voter turnout and about 1/2 a million more people wanted her.  if we redo it - it's going to be the same - just a waste of money the dems can use in the fall.  count florida for sure and have a redo in michigan even though it was obama's own fault taking his name off the ballot.  why did he really do that?  it only punishes the voters.  we need to revote because these are HUGE states in the fall and it's dumb to burn bridges this early in the game.  further, it wasnt really up to florida to move up it's election.  c'mon people - stop acting like this is a big hillary scheme.  we are the DEMOCRATIC party and silly me -i thought that meant wanted to hear the voices of voters....not completely disenfranchise two big states.
Also: Is "patty" (on this thread) a typical Clinton supporter? What does THAT say?
JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Friday, March 07, 2008 1:23 PM)

************************

Yes all of us Clinton supporters are MONSTERS be very afraid.
Hillary willwinFl and MI espifitsprimary though a caucus may give Obamathe edgein MI.Hispanic are unlikley to vote for Obama-again.More overLimbaugh effectif now all outin open to play.Real Limbaugh effect in my opinion is not republicans crossing over to vote for a democrat.Its the white middle aged mans reluctance to vote for an Obama.Its a fact that proven over . Makes me wonder-if Obama cannot even win support from so called liberals how is going to win the general election? He failed to win a single big state bar his home state of IL. Its true that he has energized a large (very liberal and visible especially on internet) democratic base but is that enough to win the gen election-guess not. And so far I have only factored in his backgound as a criteria for his viability.many more questions are yet to asked.If you have watched any of the debates,I dont think you needed Saturday Night live to tell us that media has given Obama a soft gloved treatment so far compared to what Clinton had to go through. And I am not even talking about the obviously biased MSNBC here. Real scrutiny is inevitable and looks like he is having a hard time handling it. If you think Clintons 3 AM ad is negative “you havent seen nothing yet" and wait till he get the nomination and see what republicans will do to him.
Even I hope that America has changed enough to see him in the white house but the answer so far has been NO NOT YET. I can understand the passion behind extreme liberals"hate Hillary' and "Obama or die" attitude but I dont think that healthy for their party.If they dont want to see another Bush term, its time to get real and stop hating Hillary who is their only viable choice.I dont think that she is guarenteed to win against MCCain either(unless the extreme wright wing evangelicals stay home) but amongst moderates,I think she has a fighting chance

http://middlebrainedmusings.blogspot.com/
DJShay, you hit it! Obama should just paint her as a republican.

All Obama supporters should post

McCain/Clinton 08

on all their posts. Maybe it would send a message.


McCain/Clinton 08
The only way I think it's going to be fair is if both states have elections again. Keeping the previous results is extremely unfair for Obama. I'm not decided yet. I vote on April 22. But Obama was not known enough, and he didn't campaign at all in those states. Clinton, in the other hand, for good or bad, is better known. So my first choice would be not to do anything at this point. Sorry Florida and Michigan, but complain with your governors. Or re-do the whole thing (which ias going to be extremely expensive).
The voters of Florida or Michigan didn't matter to Hillary when she thought that she would be crowned the victor.  Don't be duped by the hype now- why didn't she stand up before the election to voice her concerns?
Are the Super Delegates indebted to the Clintons?

Is this the only reason they allow Hillary to RUIN the party?

Why else do they act so neutered to the point of the obvious, that Obama will Win the Nomination?
ummm.....when will MSNBC and others start giving Obama credit for WINNING MORE DELEGATES in Texas than Hillary?  Isn't that a split decision?
I was so mad that the pledged delegates would not
count in the Fl primary that I e-mailed both my
state senators and the DNC and let them know that I
deserved to be counted.  However, at this point in the primary election I do not think that it's fair to
change the rules.  I am an Obama supporter but that is not the reason that I have changed my mind.  I think that this situation ( which was created by the
current republican administration in charge)is a no-win situation.  I do not want Fl to be a laughing stock once again.  It's a great state!  There is no
way that any change at this point would not be considered corrupt.  I would not want to take money from the DNC--they need it to fight against McCain.  Fl can't afford it either.  What's done is done.
That's what I mean patty. How can you say that it's good for the country to exploit rules to your advantage? It may be politics but that doesn't make it right.

I don't want to attack you as most do. I'd like for you for once to explain why you feel Hillary can do better? (without name calling, i.e. pimp daddy and the like)Is it that you support Hillary that much or you dislike Obama to this degree?

I've also seen where you would vote for McCain if Hillary didn't win. So it's not that you're such a strong Democrat either. So what's the deal is it affinity or disdain that motivates you?
Rules are made to be broken. Every rule has been broken at some point or another and this rule won't be an exception.

Patty why don't you piss on the constitution while you're at it.
Can anyone tell me whether new primaries in Florida and Michigan would allow either Democratic candidate to clinch the nomination without superdelegate votes (assuming 60-40% or 55-45% splits of these states)?  If not, why pay 35 million dollars for new primaries?  Just let the superdelegates vote their minds and save the money for the general election.
Chuck Todd and the MSNBC delegate crunchers...

Have you factored in the certified vote and the +8 for Obama in California?

Also when you run your projections are you just using simple percentages of the vote in each state to allocate future deleage numbers or do you factor in the proportional distribution from each district in each state?
I can't believe that Hillary is suggesting to those in Mississippi that she might be on a ticket with Obama!!  Is she kidding? Why would he ever go on a ticket with her?? Obama supporters, please volunteer to call Mississippi voters and make sure they know that we need their vote, and Hillary will say anything to get elected!!
There is NO way Obama supporters will vote for him on a clinton ticket! He would be backing away from all that his supporters believe in.  She is the same old politics and he would be a part of it.  There ia No difference between Hillary and a Republician.  She voted for the war, is a liar, and willing to betray her own party for PERSONAL gains.  An Clinton Obama ticket is Hillary's dream!!  This Independant will run to the Mccain corner!  There is no way I would vote for this lying MONSTER!  Why has MSNBC dropped the REAL story on who was making deals with CANADA?  Gee.....we don't want to make Hillary out to be the scheamer she really is.  Obamas people pointing it out is such a better story huh?
The problem with the Clinton campaign is exemplified in the first post on this board where someone claims "The Clinton machine is going to run you over on their way to the White House."  Pleasant thought, isn't it?  But, it does exemplify Senator Clinton's campaign.  

Rather than tell us why Senator Clinton is the better candidate, we are peppered with empty soundbytes, meaningless phrases like a "time out on trade," fluffy policies with no detail like a "mandate" for health care with no mechanism for enforcement while at the same time the Clinton campaign attempts to literally "run over" Senator Obama and the millions of voters who support him.

I am one of those voters who supports Senator Obama with my small donations, my feet, my phone and my vote.  I am also a woman.  The Clinton campaign has savaged me and those like me as delusional, cult-following, trust-fund babies.  Pleasant isn't it?
Should Senator Clinton manage to "run over" Senator Obama, which is highly unlikely, how does she propose to win back those of us she has so insulted?

If we don't come out and vote for Senator McCain, we will stay home.  Nice way to steal defeat from the jaws of victory Senator Clinton.  Insulting millions of voters is not a smart road to victory.

Senator Obama, on the otherhand, has never insulted any voter.  Indeed, Senator Obama even has the grace to congratulate Senator Clinton when she wins a State -- something Senator Clinton has never done.  Senator Clinton tries to work her supporters up into a blather about everything.  Senator Obama, on the otherhand, calls us to hope and work for a better day for all Americans.

The choice is up to us.  We can continue to bicker, insult and demean with Senator Clinton.  Or, we can rise above this nonsense, treat each other like adults, roll up our sleeves and solve America's problems along side Senator Obama.  

I urge anyone out there who is still undecided in this contest, to do the research.  Read the newspaper articles, google both candidates, check out both websites and see if I am not correct.  I strongly believe that Senator Obama is the right candidate, with the right message and plans to get America moving in the right direction again.  Unlike Senator Clinton, Senator Obama knows he needs us, the American People, to hold him accountable, to hold Congress accountable and to help him reform healthcare and the educational system, free us from our dependency on foreign oil and get us out of Iraq, a war that should neither have been authorized, nor waged.

Set aside your fears, move beyond the tone set by the Clinton campaign of grade-school level bickering and embrace your hopes about what this Country can be and please vote, call, and work for Senator Obama and any other candidate who stands with him to change America.

Yes we can -- no matter what the Clinton campaign sends our way, or how Senator Clinton's campaign tries to run us over -- Yes we can!  Obama '08.
Patty, you say that they should follow the rules but then break them. Are you seroius? Tell you what why don't you become an advisor to the Clintons. Your spin and BS matches them perfectly.
Patty, you say that they should follow the rules but then break them. Are you seroius? Tell you what why don't you become an advisor to the Clintons. Your spin and BS matches them perfectly.
If Florida and Michigan are going to redo their primaries Clinton has a good chance in catching Obama. But then again that may be the right thing to do. I am a Virginia Obama voter, but I have changed my mind and I am now supporting Clinton. Many around me are feeling the same. We feel Obama has been exposed as too weak and we are having buyer's remorse. We need Florida and Michigan to save us from our mistake.
i think there should be a re-do in FL and MI as well. From what I hear, Gov. Crist of FL would not accept a bill that would have kept the FL primary on or after Super Tuesday. So in other words, he would veto any bill that didnt push the FL Primary before Super Tuesday, thus breaking DNC rules. I do no think the voters of these two states should be ignored especially considering they will be high on the Democrats list for winning the election in November. Re-do the primaries and see what happens then.
So - Obama "won" Texas because of the undemocratic caucus that disenfranchises young parents, the elderly, shift workers, etc.
Caucuses accommodate college students quite well.

Hillary won the popular vote.
So - apparently, Obama is focusing on delegates won.
Florida 2000 - all over again.

I tried to post this before, but apparently it didn't work.  I copied and pasted this from the Burnt Orange Report out of Texas.  It shows that Senator Obama has a real chance of winning Texas in November.  Senator Clinton also has an outside possibility.  If we can keep this race halfway civil, Senator Obama could win an overwhelming mandate.  Texas!!!

Here is the story from the Burnt Orange Report:

Democrats Can Win Texas: 34 Electoral Votes in Play
by: Karl-Thomas Musselman
Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 07:24 PM CST

Survey USA has just completed massive nationwide, state-by-state polling of match-ups in the presidential race. While both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would rack up winning scenarios nationally, what is most stunning is that Texas, yes-Texas, is a swing state.
- 600 Registered voters, MoE 4.1%

McCain +1 Over Obama
47% John McCain (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
07% Undecided

McCain +7 Over Clinton
49% John McCain (R)
42% Hillary Clinton (D)
09% Undecided

This is stunning and I believe a large result of us seeing a presidential campaign here in Texas for the first time.

Hillary leading in national polling as voters learn info about Obama that the media has concealed for months.
And some Obamabots are having buyers remorse.
I sounds like democratic voters are sooo upset with this Hillary Clinton, that they won't vote for her even if she does win because: SHE IS A MONSTER, A MONSTER, A MONSTER!!!

OK, I FEEL BETTER NOW.
I'll bet Mayor Richard J. Daley is rolling over in his grave, laughing at the spectacle of "superdelegates", originally designed to ensure representation of the "disenfranchised" Democrats of the 70's, now being used by the established Democrat machines to turn the tide for Clinton.
Imagine: the solution by Jesse Jackson and George McGovern, to ensure the Democratic Presidential nominee was chosen by "...the will of the people...", now torpedoing the very candidate it was supposed to help.
Hillary increasing lead in national polling as voters learn more info about Obama that the media has concealed for months.
Yeah - that means YOU Chuck Todd - and MSNBC.
And now Obamabots are admitting buyers' remorse.
Is there a more treacherous and gutless hack than Barack Obama? Possibly Joe Lieberman(pronounced lye berman) at least he had the good sense to run as an independant.
That's what I mean patty. How can you say that it's good for the country to exploit rules to your advantage? It may be politics but that doesn't make it right.

I don't want to attack you as most do. I'd like for you for once to explain why you feel Hillary can do better? (without name calling, i.e. pimp daddy and the like)Is it that you support Hillary that much or you dislike Obama to this degree?

I've also seen where you would vote for McCain if Hillary didn't win. So it's not that you're such a strong Democrat either. So what's the deal is it affinity or disdain that motivates you?
Patrick, Detroit, MI (Sent Friday, March 07, 2008 1:37 PM)

*****************************************

Because inspiration doesn't put food on the table.A speech can't make jobs or fix the economy.

I have tried listening to Obama but all I get is a VERY long description of what hope means.I personaly don't look at politicians for inspiration or a role model.
Is there a more treacherous and gutless hack than Barack Obama? Possibly Joe Lieberman(pronounced lye berman) at least he had the good sense to run as an independant.
WHERE'S THE HEADLINES ABOUT NAFTAGATE?????? The media is all over the Samantha Powers "monster" story and clamoring to get Hillary's statement about it. Give me a break! Ms. Powers said the TRUTH---plain and simple.
Ms Powers is no longer on Obama's campaign so girl, if you're listening! You can SHOUT it to the world now that Hillary Clinton is a vindictive, corrupt and power hungry MONSTER!!!
SHAME ON YOU MSNBC!!!!!

Right on Patty! You Obamabots are worse than Scientologists!! What a bunch of brainwashed fools. Hillary will get her fla delegates and have a huge win in Pennsylvania. The superdelegates will come back to her, as they should.
.Obama isnt the messiha some try to tell us. He is only after his own goals. What his entire goal is I dont know but it worries me. He ask people of Ill. to put him in state senate.They did than he promised to stay there to help them.Wrong Now he wanted US Senate(you know the one he says is so bad he must change)When He got there he told Russert and times it was a silly question if he would use it as a stepping stone for presidency.But sure enough before his first term was over stepping to Pres. He is for himself only. People of Ill. he says no time was bad judgement to say he wouldnt go for pres.Lied about race twisted and used everything to look like Clintons were racist when it was he himself was.Any one looking for ans go to hillaryclinton.com everything you need. Woman History month  Hillary for president!!
Ok children, settle down.  Here's the rub;  Florida and Michigan will have delegates seated at the convention one way or another.

Do-overs can be funded by an independent source.  Maybe Warren Buffet and Bill Gates will do it.

Delegates can be seated by petitioning the credentials committee at the convention.

It is also possible that the states could sue the DNC.

Howard Dean has also hinted that the delegates could be seated as is if the state delegations can find a loophole that would not violate the "rules."

Bottom line?  Delegates from FL and MI will be seated at the convention one way or another, or both of those states will go Republican in the general, and Humble Howard and the DNC know it.  If they weren't afraid of the backlash he'd be keeping his mouth shut about it.

Howie, you do know that after this is all over you are going to be replaced.  I didn't think it was possible for anyone to screw up the DNC worse than Terry Mac, but you proved me wrong.
Once in a lifetime someone comes along and challenges the status quo through thoughtful intelligence.  Once in a lifetime someone comes along that speaks with such eloquence other are forced to listen. Once in a lifetime someone comes along who truly cares to empower the average American, instead of placate the privileged few. Once in a lifetime someone comes along that has the courage to challenge the special interest , a dangerous thing to do. Once in a lifetime someone comes along who lifts the spirit of all Americans!  The question is: are you really going to let this once in a lifetime opportunity to correct our bought and paid for governments (by special interest) pass you by?  Vote for Obama
patty,sd,ca:

Honestly, this is the base of the Clinton Supporter.  Lame, and very ill-informed voter on the real issues that America is facing.  Hillary will do nothing more that what is best for her, and her alone.

Also, Patty, rules may be made to be broken by the Clinton's, but at least I know that Obama is honest enough not to break them.

FL and MI talk is great, but I still wonder about Texas.

Who won the Democratic Party nominating contest in Texas?  

The MSM has simply gotten this one wrong by stating that the Clintons won in Texas.  There is no other conclusion when you look at the facts.  Did the Clintons win the primary portion of the contest?  Yes, by about 100K votes.  That is what almost everyone in the media has used to determine who won this contest.  It got all of the attention and it got all of the hype


Obama will win the caucus portion of the contest.  Is the hype that the Clintons won in Texas still being pushed because the caucus numbers aren’t all in yet?  When you factor in both parts of this contest, the answer to the question of who the winner in Texas was becomes clear.

The Democratic Party chooses their nominee based on who receives the majority of delegates.  Why is that not the same measure for who wins the state by state contests?
Patty - It's obvious you are a complete idiot.  You blatantly misstate the facts...CONSTANTLY!  Oh, wait...you're a Hillary supporter - never mind, it fits!

Explain one thing to me, why does your candidate continue to trail Obama in the national head-to-head polls with McCain?
I have heard more than once that Hillary Clinton went to Beijing and talked about human rights. When she was in Beijingthe women in China already had equal rights with for a long time. In fact in some parts of southern China women have had total control of family affairs.
Just subtract the number of delegates that would have been availaable in Michiga and Florida, from the total a cadidate needs to get (2025?) and the race would be over.
The rules are indeed the rules. But, to accuse the Clinton's of trying to change the game mid-way is unfair seeing as Obama made a national ad buy and ran ads for more than a week in Florida before the Primary. So, in essence, he changed the rules during the game. The issue lies with Howard Dean and his ineffectiveness. We need a strong leader for our Party and he is not that man. He placed us in this mess. IA, NH and SC  all violated Party rules by moving their Primary dates forward as well. He didn't mind that.

Doesn't matter whom you're supporting we need someone to settle this immediately at that person is NOT Howard Dean.

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/65/pe...n-as-dnc-chair


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