ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Dem wins Hastert seat

Posted: Sunday, March 09, 2008 12:48 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democrats picked up where the 2006 mid-term elections left off. They picked up yet another Republican seat, this one former House speaker Dennis Hastert's seat. Bill Foster won the special election to replace Hastert in the 14th Congressional District in Illinois by a 52.5% to 47.5% margin over Republican Jim Oberweis, who had been favored.

It's a place where Obama ran advertising endorsing Foster, and McCain campaigned for Oberweis. Whether this will have national implications is unclear, but the Democratic National Committee seized on it with this exuberant e-mail late last night:

“Good evening, The AP just called the special election to fill Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois' 14th Congressional District for Democrat Bill Foster. Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis despite the fact that McCain campaigned and raised money for Oberweis in late February. So much for those coattails…”

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said, per AP, "The message to Republican candidates is that John McCain's not going to be able to save you in this election.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, downplayed the result.

"The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend," spokeswoman Karen Hanretty said in a statement per the AP.

Obama also put out a statement, congratulating his “friend.”

“I want to congratulate my friend Bill Foster on winning his race for Congress,” Obama said in a statement released by the campaign. “As a distinguished scientist and successful businessman, Congressman-elect Foster has demonstrated the kind of vision and leadership we need in Washington. And his victory today shows that change is sweeping this country. By electing him to a traditionally Republican seat -- a seat that former Speaker Dennis Hastert held for 20 years -- the people of Illinois have sent an unmistakable message that they're tired of business-as-usual in Washington. I look forward to fighting side-by-side with Congressman-elect Foster to end the Iraq war, to take immediate steps to strengthen our economy, and to bring about real change not just in Illinois, but all across America.”

One place this does resonate on the national level is that Foster will be a superdelegate at the August convention. Chalk another up for Obama.

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Comments

Obama has the momentum.  Now when will you all call Texas a win for Obama?
ONE DOWN.....and many more to go
You should post Obama's ad endorsing Foster.  It is a perfect example of how Obama could have coattails that Hillary cannot in November.  Other congressional candidates are gonna want ads like that, rather than ads linking them to Hillary.  This is actually REALLY big news as far as the hearts and minds of superdelegates.
OBAMATAILS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Barack Obama: Yes We Can  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe751kMBwms&eurl

YES WE CAN ( The "Yes, We Can" music video has become a viral hit with more than 13 million views online.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Sz4_aYMS6g&feature=related
http://www.dipdive.com/

Yes, We Can- Barackapella
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07COcgwmXU&eurl=http://www.ufck.org/forums/showthread.php?t=229245&page=16


Hope Changes Everything
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLVN3Trs5VQ&eurl=http://adage.com/article?article_id=125316

FIRED UP! READY TO GO!
Composition: Bergevin Brothers Music - Lyrics and Music (Joe), Music and Arrangement (Jon) The Band: Jon Bergevin - Piano, Musical Direction Osama Afifi - Electric Bass Matt Cameron - Drums (Pearl Jam) Arturo Rodriguez - Latin Percussion Frank Seeberger - Electric Guitar Jessica Howard - Tambourine -The Singers:
Pastor Pat Wright - Lead Vocals and Choir Direction, Jake Bergevin - Lead Vocals
Grady A. Austin - Spoken Vocal and assistant choir direction, The Total Experience Gospel Choir

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyJ72iZ3tW4&NR=1


--------------

WE ARE THE ONES
http://www.dipdive.com/dip-politics/wato/

'Una Voz'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8YNJ_eJy4I
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.
-- Bobby Dylan
Obama.  Long coattails.  Think, America.  
This election shows exactly why the Democratic Party would be suicidal to nominate Clinton if Obama goes into Denver with more delegates, more states, and the popular vote. This is how you turn red states into blue states, one congressional district at a time. Don't tell me Wyoming doesn't matter, that only big states matter, that states that have been red for the last 30 years are going to be red for the next 30. Don't tell me there is not something afoot here that has enormous potential to create a progressive renaissance over the coming years and to re-invigorate an increasingly moribund Democratic Party. Do NOT underestimate the populace's need / demand for an end to conventional political thinking and an end to politics-as-usual, at which Clinton admittedly (and unfortunately, from my point of view) excels. ATTENTION Democratic superdelegates: DO NOT rip out our hearts and souls. DO NOT hasten your own demise. DO NOT bring a premature end to the Democratic Party as I have known and loved it my whole adult life with that kind of lack of vision and insight. One congressional district at a time. That's how we do it. That's what's now possible. Have some vision.
Meet Barack Obama
http://youtube.com/watch?v=WGGIHqIoP2k



QUOTE:

Democrat Bill Foster has won the special election in IL-14, and by a stunning margin.  

This is a red district. Former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert represented this district since 1987, winning reelection by huge margins.

This district includes the city of Dixon, which is the birthplace of Ronald Reagan.

This is a district that President Bush won twice, and in 2004 he received 56% of the vote.

The NRCC poured over $1 million here to hold onto this seat -- nearly a third of its cash on hand.

John McCain actually took time from his presidential campaign to come to Illinois and hold a fundraiser for Oberweis and formally endorse him...(by georgia10 DKOS- 3/8/08)
Barack Obama also donated his GOTV operation to Foster.

Barack Obama Endorses Bill Foster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I59wuHGUJe0

 Bill Foster (D):  53%  
Jim Oberweis (R):  47%

Another bad sign for the GOP for things to come in Fall. The Dems win a staunch GOP district and do so pretty convincingly. Jim Oberweis (R) also used the old scare tactic calling Foster a 'liberal/librul'.  

Barack 1
McCain 0

"...If one candidate's trying to scare you, and the other one's trying to get you to think; if one candidate's appealing to your fears, and the other one's appealing to your hopes; you better vote for the person who wants you to think and hope".-BC 2004
OBAMA IS THE BEST THING THAT HAPPENED TO THE DEMS, BUT WATCH THEM BLOW IT VIA THE SUPERDELEGATES

WITH OBAMA, THEY'LL GET A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.

WOMEN AREN'T DUMB

Hillary Clinton is the Most Divisive Politician ever, Very Polarizing and Manipulative. This game should be over based on the Math, but no that won't happen because its all about the Clintons.

My oh My….How can you loss 12 straight contest and still be in the race

She can't win farely, so she wants to burn the whole ship. Democrats are so dumb, they'll loss again in November

Why isn't the Goal Post North Carolina? Why must the goal post be Clinton Country? It Baffles me!!!!!!!!! Hillary has tamed all of you in the press, you guys are scared of her
Hillary Clinton's "My Lai" Strategy?

March 08, 2008 12:03 PM

She's destroying the party in order to save it….that seems to be the conclusion of a some opinion writers today…

Obama-backing former Sen. Gary Hary writes: "It will come as a surprise to many people that there are rules in politics. Most of those rules are unwritten and are based on common understandings, acceptable practices, and the best interest of the political party a candidate seeks to lead. One of those rules is this: Do not provide ammunition to the opposition party that can be used to destroy your party's nominee. This is a hyper-truth where the presidential contest is concerned.

"By saying that only she and John McCain are qualified to lead the country, particularly in times of crisis, Hillary Clinton has broken that rule, severely damaged the Democratic candidate who may well be the party's nominee, and, perhaps most ominously, revealed the unlimited lengths to which she will go to achieve power. She has essentially said that the Democratic party deserves to lose unless it nominates her."

Jonathan Chait notes that "Pennsylvania is a swing state that Democrats will almost certainly need to win in November, and Clinton will spend seven weeks and millions of dollars there making the case that Obama is unfit to set foot in the White House. You couldn't create a more damaging scenario if you tried.

"Imagine in 2000, or 2004, that George W. Bush faced a primary fight that came down to Florida (his November must-win state). Imagine his opponent decided to spend seven weeks pounding home the theme that Bush had a dangerous plan to privatize Social Security. Would this have improved Bush's chances of defeating the Democrats? Would his party have stood for it?"

And Peggy Noonan looks at the subject that dare-not-speak-its-name in the Democratic primaries -- but will be screamed in the general election should Clinton be the nominee:

"it has long been agreed in the Democratic Party that one must not, one cannot, ever, refer to the long caravan of scandals that have followed the Clintons for 15 years. "We don't speak of the Clintons that way."

"But why not? Everyone else does. Yes, the Obama sages will respond, that's the point: Everyone knows about cattle futures, etc. Everyone knows that if you Yahoo "Clintons" and "scandals" you get 4,430,000 hits….But voicing the facts would violate party politesse. So he loses the No. 1 case against her. But by losing the No. 1 case, he loses the No. 2 case: that she is the most divisive figure in the country, and that this is true because people have reason to view her as dark, dissembling, thuggish…

"(T)he Clinton campaign, which has always been more vicious than clever, this week did a very clever thing. They pre-empted any criticism of past scandals by pushing a Democratic Party button called . . . the Monica story. Mr. Obama is 'imitating Ken Starr' by speaking of Mrs. Clinton's record, said Howard Wolfson. But Ken Starr documented malfeasance. Mr. Obama can't even mention it."

Obviously, not a balanced group of op-eds. But they touch on some interesting dynamics -- thoughts?
The Power of Obama.

Hillary could not win a seat for anyone!
And who helped this happen????
OBAMA
Did you know Hill has not campaigned for any state seats in NY state??? She could care less
Yes we Can!

Obama helped win seats for democrats in the 2006 mid term elections and he's continuing to reshape the political map.

woohooo.  go 0bama 08!!!!!
There are roughly 600 or so pledged delgates remaining to be allocated in the remaining contests.  It's probably safe to say that they will be evenly spilt between Obama and HRC, leaving the race effectively where it is right now.  The super delegates can settle all of this following the Puerto Rico primary in June by the DNC calling on them to make their choice immediately following the PR primary.  Once they do, the nominee will be chosen and then the MI & FL delgates can be seated at the convention in August without impacting the nominee selction which is as it should be due to MI & FL's violation of DNC rules.
This new is VERY IMPORTANT as far as the Democratic Presidential primaries go...

Barack Obama endorsed Foster and made an ad that ran the last week of the campaign.  This goes to show that Obama can win districts and states that have a history of going Republican.

It's Obama's 50 state strategy in action.  The undecided superdelegates should take note of this and endorse Obama right now and end this thing.

This does not prove that Obama has coattails nationwide -- only in his homestate, as Hillary Clinton has coattails in New York.  Just ask Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hall, and Michael Arcuri.
I can NOT trust a man who has for 20 years belonged to an all black racist church and has a racist Pastor ( Rev.Wright) who praises Farrakhan.  Obama's Pastor also traveled to Libia with Farrakhan to visit with terrorists..

Farrakhan who is the leader of Nation of Islam hates whites and Jewish people.

Obama also is STILL friends with the US terrorist William Ayers who bombed our Pentegon and other US buildings.

People wonder why Americans get upset over  Obama posing proudly in Muslim clothes??  I'll tell you why...

9-11  ......  that's why.  It was Muslims who believe in Islam who attacked our country on 9-11.

Obama has many questions to answer to the American people. Obama is the most secretive politician I have ever seen in my lifetime and I will not blindly follow a man like this.
Obama supporters have to be the dumbest people on earth. Suckers you are falling for the biggest ruse ever! You may as well go out and grab one of the paid college kids and run him for Pres, any one will do for you guys!  Anyone younger and in good health can beat old, sick, McWar!
Add a Super delegate to Obama's column.
It's 50 states in the primary and 50 states in general- I think this is will be first time in 40 years.
We need a "GORE & OBAMA" ticket.  That would be a Win-Win for the Democrats.  Al Gore has low negatives and Barack Obama is bringing the 'money & the masses' to the Democrats.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I think this is a good sign for the Obama campaign. I think that congressional seats are going to be an important factor for super delegates in making up their minds. But here is a problem I haven't been able to solve lately: By the end of the primary season in June, we'll be roughly at the same place where we are now in terms of votes and delegates won by either candidate. Whatever criteria super delegates are going to apply in June is applicable now. There are no game changers between now and then. Why then should Democratic leaders and super delegates stand by and watch the candidates waste nearly $100 million in campaign money only to get to where we started? Wouldn't it be wiser for them to rally around the one candidate they are going to choose based on whatever criteria they are going to use in June, but do it now instead?
Well, I'm not a fan of all hardball politics.  But, the way Clinton has run her campaign,and if I'm Obama, I play that final hard tactic.. walk up to the superdelegates and tell them if I have the elected delegates, popular vote, and most states, and I don't get the superdelegates, I walk from the party and run as an independent. Thus destroying the party forever, and possibly still winning the election.  CHECKMATE.  He will then get his superdelegates.
Joe America, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Friday, March 07, 2008 10:54 AM

Joe America, that is Exactly what he'll do & with his already Impressive ground assault in each state, he could very well pull that off. I for one am willing & i'm sure gazillion's of other's are also ready to field an Independent candidate who has the American People at the forefront. He has already shown that he can bring in the $$$ to pull this off.As you can see by the poster's on here, Barack Obama would be a Formiddable Independent candidate.Hillary's supporter's can Whine all they want to, the Common sense American voter is Not gonna let her & Bill anywhere near Our House again.She has shown that she cares Nothing for the Real Democratic Party, only the title of POTUS.Bill promised it to her, but he can't Deliver good on that promise.Yet she hang's on because Bill said so.

We  supporter's of Barack Obama will Not look back as the Democratic Party we have been member's of & Loved for so long, Implodes from within on a Promise, Bill made to Hillary.

Barack Obama the next POTUS!!!
"Are you ready, are you ready for this
Are you hanging on the edge of your seat

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, Im gonna get you too
Another one bites the dust

How do you think Im going to get along,
Without you, when youre gone
You took me for everything that I had,
And kicked me out on my own"..........Queen

We'll all get along just fine when they're all gone and take their torture loving President and VP with them.
Hallelujah -- a sign that people are finally getting it.

Change we can really believe in --


Obama/Webb 08
After the "Clinton Years" where we the American people were to all the scandals, why would we want more of that?

Why is it okay for Hillary to use her husband's infidelities to show that she "has been through nothing compared to war veterans and their families" but if Obama were to mention those same infidelities, he would be slinging mud at the Clintons? If we are to believe the statement that there are unspoken rules within the Democratic party as to what one candidate should or should not do to another, it is obvious that the one candidate that has gone against her party is Hilary Clinton! T

Then there is also the issue of MI and FL. They decided to go ahead with their primaries which do not count. Everyone knew this. It was decided by the Democratic party. Now Hillary wants to go against her party and say they should be allowed to have a re-vote.

All of this sounds to me like the actions of a "spoiled brat" who wants and thinks everything should go her way. Its time for the American people to stand up and let Hillary know that we are not little sheep or blind mice that will follow her where ever she leads or who will hand over the nomination as if it were a coronation.
Dear Friends:
Obama is the best thing for dem Democrats and Hillary Huh?  Well did you read the Globe? Obama had an affair with a gay man who also happens to have cancer and may die before the election is over.   Oh Perhaps Hillary is akin to not salvation but the killing, murder she wrote, of innocent little unborn children and babies and teens and preteens and young adults and all other ages and rape, sododomy (sp?) or on the road again AAA anonymous, The Senators is that another  brand of beer up and coming then.  Pig out!
I want America to be respectful as it is to be by the will of God Almighty in stead of MAD.     Oh how many killings in Kenya,  why there is profit I hear from stealing clean water for surgery, births, rape victims.     Obama can have a coming out party! or a swingles party in the White House.  And his spouse can say oh I hate Americans.  I am so unproud!   OH ya!
Hillary go for it!  Oh and what happened to medical and veterans privacy act.  You are aware of this are you not editors.  Why not tell the world about surgical procedures of a war hero?   You fools.  I am a proud American and I want respect of Veterans of those prisoners held captive and I want every missing in action rought home.  I do not want veterans to be killed when they come home from some drunk who is dringking Senator beer or killed by the press.   Nor their four year old children.  Obama foot notes on your tax returns and those of Senator Beer.  Insurgentc from Canada to Chili and Peru  protect or border.      Vote Americans   Register and vote. Amen.
SAY NO TO THE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS THAT RUN WASHINGTON ! SAY NO TO PAC MONEY AND BRIBES !

POWER TO THE PEOPLE ! VOTE FOR OBAMA !

I want a new mind set in Washington that does not lead us blindly into a(nother) war ! I don't want a mandate on health care ! I want new faces in Washington, fresh minds without the old crony and browny ties ! I DON'T WANT THIS COUNTRY TO LOOK LIKE AN ALTERNATING MONARCHY !! (BUSH-CLINTON-BUSH-CLINTON- ...JEP BUSH - CHELSEA CLINTON ....YUCK)
"We have the Ted Kennedy forces to thank for the freedom of choice that all delegates enjoy, not just the supers. In 1980, Kennedy argued for an open convention, while President Carter was determined to keep convention delegates bound. With a 600-delegate margin over Kennedy, Carter prevailed. As a result, any delegate voting against the candidate he or she was elected to represent could be replaced by an alternate and thrown off the convention floor. The rule was strict and enforceable. Kennedy couldn't dislodge any of the Carter delegates. Two years later, after Carter lost the election, the phrase "in all good conscience" was inserted into the rule, belatedly giving delegates the latitude Kennedy had sought. "  

This was in Newsweek. So, if you want to blame somebody if the superdelegates decide against Obama, you can thank his man Kennedy for setting it up.
" This goes to show that Obama can win districts and states that have a history of going Republican"  Of course, Foster had nothing to do with his OWN election.  But, of course, "God" has a hand in everything. The wind is blowing in OK today; thank you so much, Obama, for making that possible.
"which is as it should be due to MI & FL's violation of DNC rules. "  And, eyzwidopn: how should Obama be punished for running ads in FL in the week prior to the election?
The point is that if an Obama Democrat can win a traditionally Republican seat that was occupied by the former Speaker of the House, then Obama can win traditionally Republican states in the general election.

Compare that to Hillary's strategy of winning only big states with 50.1% of the vote.

The Obama advantage can't be lost on the superdelegates.
More evidence of Obama's coattails.  Does anyone even think Foster wanted Hillary stumping for him?  Does anyone really believe he'd have won if Hillary had stumped for him?  Obama will have coattails around the country.  Hillary will bring Republicans to the polls in droves to vote against Democratic candidates for House and Senate.  Not only will Hillary lose the presidency, if nominated, she'd also cost the Democrats several House and Senate seats.
I think something is going to come out that will force Hillary to step aside for the good of the party.
I have yet to hear the following solution which might just work:

Obama agrees to run on a Clinton-Obama ticket for 2008. Hillary agrees to run as a one-term president, and will step aside in order to allow Obama to run in 2012. Hillary can run on the basis of turning around the country and fixing the mess from the Bush years. She and Obama will both appear to have sacrificed something for the greater good of the Democratic party.

Because conventional wisdom has it that McCain may well prove to be a one-term president, any criticism McCain makes will draw attention to his age.

There are risks in this strategy for Obama. He may never have a better opportunity to become President, but winning this battle for the Democratic nomination may lose him the General Election.

At the same time, the Democratic chances increase because Clinton will not be held to the public financing commitment that Obama has agreed to in principle. This could prove critical in the race against McCain.

The compromise of a one-term Hillary Clinton presidency would require Clinton to curb her long-term ambition and Obama to curb his short-term ambition. However, the end result might just be worth the sacrifice for both of them.
Coattails do not matter to the Clinton's.  Congress went Republican during the Clinton years.  Corruption ran rampant and the Republicans will energize for one reason, to beat Hillary Clinton.  I am an Independent and will never vote for her.  There are millions like me.  This Democratic party looks like a bunch of monkeys farking a football.
I can NOT trust a man who has for 20 years belonged to an all black racist church and has a racist Pastor ( Rev.Wright) who praises Farrakhan.  Obama's Pastor also traveled to Libia with Farrakhan to visit with terrorists..

Farrakhan who is the leader of Nation of Islam hates whites and Jewish people.

Obama also is STILL friends with the US terrorist William Ayers who bombed our Pentegon and other US buildings.

People wonder why Americans get upset over  Obama posing proudly in Muslim clothes??  I'll tell you why...

9-11  ......  that's why.  It was Muslims who believe in Islam who attacked our country on 9-11.

Obama has many questions to answer to the American people. Obama is the most secretive politician I have ever seen in my lifetime and I will not blindly follow a man like this.
This election result is SUCH good news.  Oberweis ran a dirty, distorted, ocndescending campaign, and the Republican Congressional campaign committee added their own dirty ads.  Voters in this traditionally Republican district didn't buy it.  I congratulate the voters of the 14th Congressional District!
How about a poll on coat-tails? Hillary's been riding Bill's since her career began. She was the good woman behind the successful man - but he had the common touch to win the vote. Bill's coat-tails are his payback to Hillary - and phase 2 of their personal political plans. Does anybody really believe that without Bill, Hillary could have made it this far? Does she delude herself into believing that she alone, without ex-President Bill's coat-tails, would be anywhere closer to a female presidency than her female predecessors? Does she really believe she's the one bringing out the crowds, setting voter turnout records in these nominee races? The two celebrity candidates are Obama and Bill Clinton, not Hillary. And, who of any significant caliber wants the Vice-President's office with Bill sharing the President's? So, how is she going to have a winning ticket?
If she keeps up the slash and burn campaign against Obama, she may succeed in winning a few more votes, a few more delegates, and maybe a few more states to bring her closer to being equal with Obama for the nomination - but then what? Superdelegates decide? Re-elections in states that ignored the rules? One-name Michigan ballots. Unfair. No campaigning allowed in Florida. But Hillary holds a fund raiser and speaks publicly and loudly about why Florida votes should count to sway the voeters. In the end, if she gets her way, Hillary will have soured the public, crushed the hope, and the energized new electorate will stay home - disillusioned - for the general election. The "Go Hillary" supporters are blinded to the ugliness of a negative win-at-any-cost campaign, and will ultimately pay the price of a McCain presidency, right along with the Obama supporters looking to win on a positive, decent, even playing field.
Oblivious to the "throw the baby out with the bathwater" danger of a viciously negative campaign against Obama, Hillary and her supporters resemble the imposter mother, willing to accept King Soloman's "cut-the-baby-in-half" solution in that dispute. The real mother chose to give up her baby rather than cut the baby in half. Hillary is willing to divide the Democratic party in half to get "her" nomination - but she'll cause the party to lose the election. She'll never outdo Rove and the behind the scenes, privately funded, Republican attack crowd, who will come to bat for McCain in the fall, but those boys worry about Obama. Hillary hasn't been vetted by Rove. That was Bill. Rove's been planning for over a year, since he left the White House, just exactly how to go after Hillary. He wants to go after Hillary. It wouldn't be quite so easy to go after Obama; and, Hillary's fans would vote for Obama, no matter what they say now, because they wouldn't fall for Rove tactics, used by Republicans (instead of by Hillary) - against a Democrat.
If Hillary really cared about the country - her tearful "how important this is" plea in New Hampshire - she'd know a nomination victory won by a mud wrestling competition is a murder-suicide of the Democratic candidate's chances in November. Guess she really believe McCain would be a better choice than Obama. Shame on you Hillary!!!
This just proves that Republicans aren't the racist Democrats have made them out to be, and of course Democrats are the racist they've tried to make Republicans out to be.


It get worse the further north you go
The Presidential Race - Reading The Tea Leafs - More Questions Than Answers


Sunday, March 09, 2008

By Alexander De Filippi

Alexanderdefilippi.blogspot.com


To be one hundred percent fair, Republicans should retain the White House this year; nevertheless I do not believe they will. In fact they should have never lost Congress, nevertheless they did, mainstream, republicans were very surprised of the 2006 congressional results, as almost everyone, this time they seem resigned to loose the White House, or at least they won’t feel surprised if they do. Why? They feel down, feisty, but down. The republicans have done mistakes, without any doubt, some of them, major mistakes, but in an election year with only 4.8 percent unemployment rate they should feel happier but they don’t. They should feel more confident, considering they have a nominee that appeals greatly to the independent and the moderate, and that the democrats are engaged in an awful confrontation, and whoever becomes their nominee will be of an untested material, a woman or a black male.

Common wisdom suggests that divided democrats with an untested type of nominee should not be a match for someone like John McCain. Nevertheless, again, mainstream republicans aren’t feeling good, simply they seem unable to get along with him, or they do not want to get along with him.

Perhaps republicans do not want neither the White House nor recover Congress; perhaps they assume that the next four years the US will face extreme economic turmoil and serious terrorist attacks affecting the biggest cities in the country such as New York, DC and LA. Therefore, it is better for them to see the spectacle from the distance while a democrat president and a democrat congress juggles with one major problem after another. Perhaps republicans see that in four years they would be able to return to power with a candidate of their like and additionally retake congress. Considering this scenario, perhaps the democrats shouldn’t take the White House but let McCain to be the next president, so far appears that John McCain is as a big pain in the butt for republicans as a democrat would be, with the big caveat that anything going wrong during the next four years would be blame on the Republicans and not on the Democrats.
The Obama campaign is also the most successful in terms of troops on the ground and rapid fund-raising EVER.  Congressional Superdelegates would be fools to snub such lucrative potential.

With Obama, all ships will rise.  Get onboard!
The area that Foster won the seat against Oberwise is a republican area in Illinois. I listened to the You Tube songs holy cow these are great.  Should record them and sell. Thanks for posting the You Tube Site.  You may want to read Obamas book , The Audacity Of Hope.  Really a good read.      
OBAMA LOST THE MOST IMPORTANT STATES IN THE UNION
==================================================
HE CANNOT BE ELECTED IN NOVEMBER
=================================
THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS MUST LOOK THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS BEFORE ANY PERSONAL EMOTIONS
========================================
TEXAS,OHIO CAN GO EASY REPUBLICAN WITH OBAMA ON THE TICKET.
=========================================
BE-CAREFUL DEMOCRATS-YOU CAN LOOSE THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE.
==================================================
Unfortunately, the media is really the one who decides who will get the momentum and ultimately the nomination.  The media has a lot of leverage.  They report what they want. They twist and turn truths to get us, the voters to see and hear what they want us to hear.  They could have honestly reported that when Obama was down in Texas 20 points, he made fantastic gain by wining the caucus and was neck and neck in the primary and ultimately wining the state in delegates.  What do we hear instead, Clinton won 3 out of 4 states. Shame on the media for biased reporting.  
seems that Obama is doing the " you do me a favor and I`ll do you a favor" by endorsing and paying for Foster`s tv ad to get elected for Congress. We need more democrates in Congress but gee, guess Obama will have another superdelagate. So you pat my back and Foster will pat Obama`s back, there you go ,Obama buying votes????
Obama-Clinton is better.  The Clinton arrogance for even suggesting Clinton-Obama, when they are behind in the delegate count and little hope of catching up!  Pulling a "Super Delegate" coup at the convention just shows how low the Clinton's will go.  This isn't about the American people to them, it's about them.  We need change in Washington...she isn't it.
The Obama campaign is similar to the McGovern campaign. He might be popular with the rich white liberals and capture the hearts of blacks who have every right to be proud. He is a good man. But, the republicans who voted for him (especially in many of the states he won traditionally seen as "red" states will abandon him. He will have fewer centrist democrats voting for him. And he does not have a majority of elderly, workers, and poorer who are just not in to taking a chance. They know Hillary, are not easily swayed and more likely turned off by the retoric of some of the Obama camp. The Obama camp is seen as elitist and many of the poor white and hispanic population see him as being elitist as well. So many of them will go for McCain. No, none of this worked for McCarthy and he lost. I wouldn't vote for campaign if my favorite candidate Hillary does not get the nomination. I'll vote for Obama but I don't believe he can make it. I do believe Hillary can make it and I hope that if she does get the nomination that the illogical and emotional pitch of the Obama camp can be calmed enough to see the terrible consequences of a Republican victory and that realism will bring a majority of the Obama Democratic supporters to her side. Go Democrats. We have another democrate congressman and together we can sweep the nation, whoever the democratic candiate for president. The nation knows that we cannot retreat more into the past and that is all that John McCain offers; more retreat, nothing but more George Bush.
This is why the Clinton "big state" argument is bogus.  With Obama as the candidate every red state is in play and every red congressional seat is in play.  However, if Hillary heads the ticket the party is doomed to the same old blue state strategy that has lead to defeat the last two times.  The only difference is that she will not do as well as John Kerry or Al Gore and will take the Democratic Congress down the tube with her (just like Bill did in 1994).  With the Clinton's is always about the Clinton's.  With Obama, it's about all of us winning.


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