First thoughts: Who's the front-runner?
Posted: Monday, March 10, 2008 9:04 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Victoria Riess
*** Who's the front-runner? So, the weekend campaign between Clinton and Obama has been a discussion about a Clinton-Obama ticket, how to pay for a Florida-Michigan re-do, and the commander-in-chief question. So who's the frontrunner? Obama, at least this past week, has lost control of the campaign's narrative. The Clinton campaign is now fighting the campaign out on its turf, despite being behind a nearly an insurmountable margin on the pledged delegate front, 1373-1232. Just look at how little coverage Wyoming and Mississippi are getting and how much focus is being put on Pennsylvania, even over other big states like North Carolina. And nevermind the incredible lift the Clinton campaign continues to get from the folks at "SNL." This last opening skit might actually have been written by the Clinton campaign; it was striking in how on-message the skit was for Clinton. It was the third week in a row the comedy show has delivered for Clinton. Bottom line: the Clinton campaign appears to have wrested control of the campaign narrative, while Obama's camp continues to be in reactive mode. The Obama folks will say it's the media's fault, but as we've said to others who blame the media for these perception swings -- the media can only cover what the campaigns deliver.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the possibility of primary re-do's for Florida and Michigan and whether Sen. Hillary Clinton's image is hurt by campaign bickering.
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Size matters? Similarly, when did all the states Clinton won (save Oklahoma) matter, while just about half of them (including Saturday’s contest in Wyoming) matter for Obama? For one thing, isn’t counting California and New York a bit dubious? All things considered, we bet that every Democratic presidential candidate this cycle except for Gravel and Kucinich would probably carry those two Dem-tilting states. Also, if primary performance guarantees general election performance -- and history isn’t so sure it does -- then Clinton would have advantages in a battleground state like Ohio, especially among women and low-income Democrats. But what about asking the opposite question: Why is the biggest name in Democratic politics, Clinton, failing to win caucuses and primaries in smaller states dominated by longtime Dem activists, many of which hold important Senate contests in November (like Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, and Virginia)? As Harold Ickes told NBC News in late January, after Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada, the Clinton-Obama contest is a race for delegates. Not just delegates of big states or medium-sized states or small states -- but all of them.
*** Do unto others...? Another example of how the Clinton campaign is dominating the campaign narrative: What would be the Clintons’ reaction if Obama -- trailing in pledged delegates and number of states won -- floated the idea of Clinton being his vice president? Just asking…
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Florida and Michigan: It looks like it's not a matter of "IF" there will be some sort of re-vote in Florida and Michigan, but when. Clinton surrogates were all over the place this weekend promising to raise whatever money was needed to hold re-votes; the Obama campaign hasn't exactly jumped at the chance to sign on to this idea because they know a re-vote is a potential chance for Clinton to legitimize her big-state resume argument (even if her victories are very narrow), as well as extend the nomination fight. And this is the most important piece of this push for a revote. It freezes superdelegates for even LONGER and keeps the Obama camp from being able to push too hard to end this and rally superdelegates to his side.
*** Watching that popular vote: Also, a revote in Florida and Michigan gives Clinton the opportunity to catch up in the popular vote count, an important talking point to undecided superdelegates. Without Florida and Michigan, Obama's popular vote lead is approx. 600,000 votes. By comparison, with Florida and Michigan, Clinton leads. And with re-votes, she could cut Obama's popular vote lead to approximately 100,000 or even less -- which out of 40,000,000 votes cast would be considered a virtual tie. By the way, one of the reasons the Clinton campaign needs those two states to count so badly is the 53 combined superdelegates in them. Clinton will win a LARGE chunk of those supers, because she stuck by the two states in their feud with the DNC. In fact, Clinton could net more superdelegates out of Florida and Michigan than she nets pledged delegates if she wins both states.
*** What about July or August? As for timing of the re-votes, why aren't the states looking to the end of July or early August, when the two states hold their congressional primaries? Sure, it's outside the June 10 DNC deadline for holding delegate contests, but won't the DNC provide an exemption? Seriously, Michigan has a scheduled congressional primary for early August, meaning taxpayers wouldn't be paying any more money to add a presidential primary line. And Florida has their congressional primary scheduled for late August (which could be moved to late July by the state legislature), so the contests there could easily be moved up at the cost of nothing to the taxpayers.
*** A big Dem win: The most significant political development of the weekend was not in the presidential race but in an Illinois GOP-held district. The Dem victory here (Bush won it by 55% in 2004) is a HUGE psychological blow to the House Republicans, who are already struggling on the perception front on the idea they can win back control of Congress. This is really going to hurt on the fundraising front for the NRCC.
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Meanwhile, do note that Obama cut an ad for the Dem, Bill Foster, while McCain did the same for the Republican, Jim Oberweis. Does this signal, at a minimum, how long Obama's coattails could be -- at least in Illinois? By the way, will this Dem victory start getting more folks talking louder about what we suggested above: that Dems who worry more about House and Senate races are much more interested in running with Obama than Clinton because of his ability to potentially swing more House seats (increased black vote in the South) and even tip a few Senate seats. We've heard from GOP strategists who can't believe Obama isn't benefiting more from insiders on this fact, because they certainly fear that Obama could cost them more House and Senate seats than Clinton.
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On the trail: Scrantonicity! Clinton holds a rally in Scranton, PA; McCain has media avails in Phoenix and St. Louis; and Obama, in Mississippi one day before the primary there, stumps in Jackson. Bill and Chelsea Clinton also campaign in Mississippi. And Obama’s military advisers hold a press conference in DC to argue that he has the experience and judgment to be commander-in-chief.
Countdown to Mississippi: 1 day
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 43 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 239 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 316 days
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