RNC: Mississippi won't be in play

Posted: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:40 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans, 2008, Obama

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Republican National Committee disagrees with our speculation earlier this morning that Mississippi could be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the Dem nominee.

Demographically, Obama might have some advantages in the state, RNC spokesman Alex Conant tells First Read. But ideologically, Conant adds, Obama will have a tough time in Mississippi. "It hasn't gone Democrat in over 30 years," he said.

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Comments

not even if every single democrat and every single black person voted for obama does he have a chance at winning Mississippi in the general election....the only way he could win, is if the white republican majority all over dosed on ambien the night before...

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:47 AM)

Well, Obama's already done a lot of things that have never been done before. So who knows...

Linda, Boston, MA (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:47 AM)

How things have gone in the past has no sway in how things will go this year.

I'm sure there were quite a few comments about so-and-so states that "hasn't gone Republican in xx years" right before Reagan swept 49 of 50.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:47 AM)

Sounds like a challenge to me.

Anyone up for a challenge?

Obama 08 (yes we can, especially in Mississippi :), say yes to a 50 state strategy, EVERY STATE MATTERS)

(home sick today, son has stomach flu, that's why I'm on more LOL)

Lisa in New Britain, CT (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:48 AM)

Never say never.

Down here in SC, it's the ol' 80% of Repubs are just Demos that don't know any better. Make them pay attention and watch them realize that voting for a President is more than picking which one evokes God more often.

Ron Hussein (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:49 AM)

Obama will have a tough time in Mississippi. "It hasn't gone Democrat in over 30 years," he said

That was before your guy got in office and tanked the country. Still it's nice to see that the Republicans know who they'll be running against this general election.

Dr.Strangedog, MI (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:50 AM)

The RNC is dead on is this case. The bottomline is that southern states will remain republican if Obama gets the nomination for the simple reason that african americans NEVER turnout in the numbers needed to offset a highly organized and dedicated conservative vote in the South. Come on First Read try to inject a little historical overview into your pro-obama agenda!!

Craig, CT (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:50 AM)

It's just such attitudes that prompted a sluggish reaction to the candidacy of Bill Foster in IL-14 (Denny Hastert's old seat and in a very red district) by the RNCC and may provide an opening for democratic candidates down ticket in the fall - especially with a candidate at the top of the ticket with the broad appeal of Sen. Obama.

States like VA, MS, and CO may be in play and dozens of congressional districts in places like MS and GA may also be competitive.

Winning is important of course, but let's not forget - that such a situation will force the Republicans to defend turf they felt the DNC had long forgotten, using time and resources that could otherwise be spent in swing states and districts.

Adam, Green Bay, WI (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:51 AM)

Obama has a snowball's chance in he-- of winning in Mississippi in November. GET REAL.

Obama has a snowball's chance in he-- of winning the general election.

GAME OVER.

Hillary Clinton has proven she can win big in the big states that are the must wins for the Dems in November.

Obama failed to close the deal. If you can't win in states like Ohio, you can't win the Presidency. In Ohio, Obama outspent Hillary 3 to 1 yet won ONLY 5 out of 88 counties in Ohio. Ouch. No amount of money is ever going to get Obama over 50% of the vote in a general election.

OBAMA IS UNELECTABLE. OBAMA IS UNQUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, OR A U.S. SENATOR.

The only question left is how to get Obama out of the race, NOW!

After the Rezko trial is over in Chicago, I'll bet Obama can't even get re-elected to the Senate from Illinois.

John (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:52 AM)

It's my {Republican} Party and I'll cry if I want to.

Democrats Will Wipe Us Out in November All Across The Country (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:56 AM)

Forgive me--I posted this on another page, as well, but it's equally appropriate here.

Actually, Bush won this state by less than 55% in 2000, so it's never been as far out of reach for the Dems as other Deep South states. Their House delegation has for quite a while been split between the parties, and there's even a chance the Dems could pick up a Senate seat this year (although not likely if HRC is the nominee).

BTW, did anyone else see the results of the SurveyUSA 50-state general election polls? You do, of course, have to take such polls with a grain of salt this far out, but the fact that the poll had Obama winning North Dakota over McCain (ND being a 60% state for Bush in the last two elections) was pretty shocking. Also shocking: Obama winning Michigan over McCain, but McCain winning it over Clinton. That only makes me more excited to see the results of a revote in that state!

Mark S, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:57 AM)

John (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:52 AM),

He was down 20pts only two weeks ago to Hillary Clinton and closed within 10 in Ohio.

That same pattern held up in California, New York, New Jersey, etc.

What does it show? When people hear Obama's message, he closes very quickly.

That shows significant weakness on the part of Hillary Clinton.

That said, let the RNC continue to write off Obama and states that they believe can never go Dem. It'll be to their detriment.

MGP, NY (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:57 AM)

Lisa in New Britain, that's the spirit!! Obama/Webb 08 for Mississippi !!

charles (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 10:59 AM)

Dr.Strangedog, it's naive to assume that Bush is a representation of all republicans.

To be honest, comparing all republicans, conservative and otherwise, to Bush amounts to mudslinging and dirty politics as far as I'm concerned.

I don't know where that belief came from, but it always happens - the incumbent is always misread as his party's flagship. Whether it's a Dem OR Repub.

Not the case here.

Dr.Strangeelephant, FL (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:01 AM)

The 14th Congressional District of Illinois (seat held by Dennis Hastert) hadn't gone Democratic for the last 20 years either and it DID last Saturday!! So, I guess I'd have to say....Yes, we can!

Diane from Illinois (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:01 AM)

The War is wrong, The Economy is in the gutter and Washington has been out of touch with Americans for a long long time. If Obama can connect to Americans in the GE and out duel Mccain in the debates then I suspect that many states will be in play. The RNC is wrong.

Eddie M., NYC (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:02 AM)

If nothing else this quick responce to an offhand remark shows how concerned the RNC is about this stuff. They fear Obama because they know he will clean their clock on Iraq and the economy.

They want to face Hillary because they can win.

Obamacan (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:03 AM)

The Red and Blue Status Quo must go!
Things change.
Change is ALWAYS good.
Both Party establishments need to be shaken to their rotten core.
51% to 49% is no victory. Just a continuation of that which does not work.
The Red and Blue Status Quo must go!

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:05 AM)

Poor John, parroting Hillary's talking points that have already been refuted. Can't close? Not qualified? Rezko? He's not accused of any wrongdoing in Rezko, pay attention. Former Clinton Secretaries of the AF and Navy hold him to be highly qualified, as do many others. As for the close issue, he's won more states, more popular votes, and more delegates. MI will go for Obama today and in the Fall the RNC may have a rude shock in store. Obama's coat tails already paid off once in the last week and I'm expecting this effect to increase the Dem Congressional majority by a solid margin in the future.

R CAL (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:06 AM)

Obama won't win in a General Election.The only thing he will be President of is Farrakhan's church.

Clinton 08

Patty,sd,ca (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:08 AM)

I believe Obama has been doing a lot of things people said he couldn't. When is the last time a republican or democratic nominee raised $55 in ONE month? Who would have ever thought that a black man would be doing so well in a presidential election? This man is bringing change and the republicans and Clintonites are pathetically clinging on to the politics of the past.

Billy, MI (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:09 AM)

Shh! Nobody tell the RNC that they're wrong! No one tell them not to take traditional red states for granted! It's going to be a fun November!

'08bama!

Ron, TX (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:10 AM)

Isn’t demography a way to describe the electorate?

In which case, the RNC is admitting that the Dems (with Obama) do have a chance, especially when you consider how poorly their party leader handled Katrina.

RNC-on-the-Run (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:14 AM)

Patty, you're finally awake! We were worried about you... NOT

I can't believe the people of Mississippi will want another 4 years of the McBush doctrine, after the was the gulf coast was treated after the hurricanes.. I think this state might suprise alot of Repubs...

Poor, old white woman from MO - GO Obama... (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:14 AM)

People are so quick to dismiss the possibility that a state like MS could vote for someone like Obama in the Nov. elections. Every thing is possible this year.

Pedro Cruz (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:17 AM)

Clinton has nothing of substance that I can support to defend her with, so I have to resort to cheap, baseless lies to home someone will be more naive than me to fall for them. Clearly if I keep saying the same baseless lies someone will believe me. Please believe me.

Patty,sd,ca (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:19 AM)

Obama won't be needing reelection in Ill but I hear that a governorship in NY might be available for Mrs. Clinton. GAME OVER

Tom (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:19 AM)

there hasn't been a Democratic candidate this good in 40 years.

Ben in the Red State of TN (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:19 AM)

Obama won't be needing reelection in Ill but I hear that a governorship in NY might be available for Mrs. Clinton. GAME OVER

Tom (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:19 AM)

If you notice, they quoted no current stats to prove their comment. Obama is much more compelling than Carter was in 76 (the last dem win). This is like Hillary claiming she can do the best against McCain.

A Charles, LA, CA (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:20 AM)

The RNC has just made a big mistake. Telling Obama he cannot win Mississippi and telling the people in Mississippi how to vote. The wave is just beginning and Obama will take Mississippi in the fall election.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:21 AM)

The reason Obama will not win in Novemnber is because the "youth" vote will once again fail to show up when it matters the most.

Patty,sd,ca (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:22 AM)

The only way that Obama might lose Mississippi in the general election is if he takes Hillary on as his VP candidate. He would then have a hard time convincing those folks in Mississippi that Hillary does care about them and does not think that they are backwards folks with no quality like Iowa.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:23 AM)

As has been said earlier, Obama as done a lot of surprising things people were sure he couldn't do. The RNC may be betting prematurely.
But of course, all this is moot if Hillary gets the nomiinatio, because she's a guaranteed loser in most every state.

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:30 AM)

katrina was handled properly - those that wanted tog et out got out. Those that wanted to loot stayed and got trapped agaisnt mandantory orders.

It was a superdisaster and when recognized proper measures were taken. Why didn't they leave? I could've walked, hitched, public accesses weremade available to get out of the way of destructiion in time butnooooo...stay and steal and blame the white man for your problems.

Now we have idiot whites backing obama and his preacher and Farakhan ideology. Unreal.

Dumbama is a puppet

scott golden birmingham (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:31 AM)

tsg tuscaloosa (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:33 AM)

Mississippi has not voted Democrat in 30 years. So what. There has never been a black Democratic or Republican presidential nominee running either.

Ronnie Eastman, Houston, Texas (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:33 AM)

Craig,CT...I would like to know when you became an expert on what Blacks would do in the south or anyone esle for that matter. These times are new and the Republicans and there last 7 years has changed hearts and minds of many and the days of old are fading away. Millions of people of all races, will turn out to vote and ignore the sentiment that people like you think they should still home ,,,,just so they can't vote. YOU have no idea the magnitude of change the Smart Americans want in the country. Not many people are like you anymore, that think Race matters in the White House. People are now mainly concerned about living the American dream and having finanical security for there families. Bigorty is a thing of the past for folks like you and you all are a dying breed. It's obvious anyone can be elected has the President. We did that all ready. Now we want to elect a qualified President and Barak Obama is just that. Regardless of his name or race.

KW, Philadelphia,PA (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:35 AM)

Dont worry republicans...haleyy barbour and the rest of the KKK in MS will make sure this election is fair...lmao

Rick, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:35 AM)

OMG!!

Obama's red state sweep won't carry him in the general, all it does is falsely make him look like he could win something.... He can't.

McCain will knock him out of the ring.

Obama will be best served, if he serves the Clintons for a few years, then he will be ready to "maybe," play with the big boys...

I mean think about it a Monster/Muslim ticket... Who's going to vote for that?

I Don't Think So, Columbus Georgia (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:35 AM)

RNC-on-the-Run --- that kind of naivety has to leave. Local and state leaders have the foremost responsbility, even letting the federal government ahead of time whether they can handle it. ANYONE who has lived here as long as I have knows the potential impact of hurricanes, and Bush acted within his realm of responsbility based on what officials in the disaster area reported prior. But people think it's easier to blame the federal government than the state government, just like it's easier to call someone on TV a jerk than it is to say it to the guy beside you at the grocery store, so no state legislators or governors or mayors take any blame at all, even though it was their arrogance that was the problem. Oh and nature, can't forget good ole' same-thing-that's-been-happening-for-thousands-of-years.

Believe me, if people hadn't already hated Bush, he wouldn't have gotten nearly as hammered for it, but Americans, above all other people, love a whipping post.

The way it is, Pensacola (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:37 AM)

Depends on how liberal Obama comes off in the general election. We have democrats down here who aren't insane. You'd throw rocks at them up north.

Dave, Tn (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:38 AM)

Of course the RNC would say this. Did we expect anything less?

The fact is, though, that Obama brings with him a 50-State plan for the Presidential nomination, while Hillary is banking on winning only a handful of the "big" states. That's where Obama's electibility gives him a better shot, with more electoral map possibilities, to win the White House in November.

Keith (Wayne, NJ) (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:39 AM)

I bet Obama won't win in November.

It is easy for him to win the red state caucuses because the fanatical hard-line liberals dominate these proceedings. For example, in Wyoming little over 9,000 state delegates elected compared to the half a million who will be eligible to vote in the actual election. Even on a turn out of 50% the turnout for the Presidential election would be over 10 times that of the caucuses. Obama wins in these red states because they have such a low number of democrats in the first place.

He won't be able to do the same in secret ballot state-wide elections.

Do The Math Obama, FLA (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:41 AM)

"not even if every single democrat and every single black person voted for obama does he have a chance at winning Mississippi in the general election"
-- Pat Huntington NY

What odds are you offering? I'll take you up on a bet.

Who's Sane (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:42 AM)

Obama stands no chance whatsoever to take Mississippi in November, not only the electorate, I think it's 80 or 90 percent of whites vote republican and will vote for McCain, remember that the south is very pro gun, Obama is very anti gun.. That doesn't bode well for him in the South. He won't take 1 southern state...

Thomas, Slidell, Louisiana (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:44 AM)

The main reason Obama will not win in November is because the "youth" vote will once again fail to show up when it matters the most.

patty,sd,ca (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:48 AM)

Probably right but there is a first time for everything. Like the first black front-runner in a Democratic Presidential contest. Unlikely things happen.

Who, for instance, would have thought Hastert's seat in Illinois, one he occupied for 20 years, would go to a Democrat?

Here in Colorado, in 2002 nobody would have believed we would have a Democratic majority congressional delegation, state legislature and governor in place by January 2007. So, never say never.

Felix, CO (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:49 AM)

Please, wake up Obamacans! You are deluding yourself if you think that Obama will carry Mississippi or any other traditional southern state in November. This even includes my home state of NC. I recognize how NC votes, and I am a democrat. You can talk trash all you want to (as you do so often all over the blogosphere), but it won't happen for him. This is getting down right silly!

Janice, LaGrange, NC (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:50 AM)

obama will get every black vote in missisisppi and should cause he only cares for balcks given his wifes remarksa s an unproud american unless you do something to back a balck civally. Mississppi is a republican landsslide! Go Mccain - go CLinton
tsg tuscaloosa (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:33 AM)

tsg:

Hush! Or people will think there are other people in Tuscaloosa that are as ignorant as you. There is a University here in Tuscaloosa folks and some well educated people. Just ignore tsg.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Tuesday, March 11, 2008 11:51 AM)

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