First thoughts: Michigan re-vote mo'
Posted: Friday, March 14, 2008 9:07 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** 'So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance…': While the idea of a Florida re-vote seems to be fading after yesterday, there’s a lot of momentum in Michigan for a June 3 re-vote, according to informed sources in the state. There are a couple of hurdles, including who pays for the primary. The state would pass a law that would appropriate the money to run this special primary election; not a mail-in, but a full bore in-person 100% open primary. The state, in turn, would be reimbursed by the Democratic Party or potentially other entities or even seeing if it's possible for donors to contribute to the state directly. Everyone seems to be on board in the state Democratic world of Michigan, including the governor, the Dingells, Carl Levin, the Kilpatricks and the UAW. For those that follow Michigan Democratic politics closely, you'll know getting all those folks in agreement isn't easy. The only thing that could stop this primary logistically is if the state party is told -- legally -- they can't raise the large soft money contributions they would need to raise in order to come up with the $10-12 million.
*** Terms for a settlement? The momentum for a revote in Michigan might actually expedite the negotiations between Clinton and Obama on what to do with Florida and Michigan delegates. There are some competing proposals out there. Obama's camp isn't interested in extending the campaign primary schedule, and Clinton's camp isn't interested in losing its argument that it already won Michigan and Florida. So some seating of a, say, 52-48 split on delegates with supers voting how they want, could be more possible as this revote stuff makes its way through the Michigan legislature. So the most interesting thing to could come out of this Michigan re-vote momentum is that negotiations for seating these delegates gets more serious.
*** The speaker speaks: For the second time in the past week, Nancy Pelosi yesterday shot down the idea of a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton “dream ticket.” "Take it from me, that won't be the ticket," she said, per NBC's Mike Viqueira. If this isn’t yet another sign that Pelosi is pretty much in Obama’s corner -- knocking down the idea that you can still get Obama if you vote Clinton -- we don’t know what is. Most of her House kitchen cabinet is behind Obama, and this just seems like another signal. No doubt the Clinton folks know this, which means it could make Pelosi's hope of playing elder stateswoman who can settle this at the end a bit harder.
*** Mother's Day: As disciples of presidential historian James David Barber will tell you, some of the greatest influences on modern American presidents have been their mothers. After reading today’s front-page New York Times profile of Obama’s late mother, we are pretty sure of this: If Obama goes on to win the White House, Ann Dunham Soetoro -- who was born in Kansas, moved to Hawaii, married a man from African, then married a man from Indonesia, and became an anthropologist -- could very well be the most fascinating presidential mother in this country’s history.
*** Just when you thought you were out…: ...Iowa pulls you right back in. Under the radar, but coming up on Saturday are the Iowa county conventions, where delegates actually RE-caucus -- viability, threshold and all. Why does this matter? All those Edwards delegates (14 in total). Remember, Edwards finished second with 30% of the vote or 4,046 (out of 13,485) delegates to the county conventions. Where will they go? Do they go to Obama because of Clinton’s dissing of caucuses since Iowa? Do they go to Clinton? Or do these fiercely loyal delegates stick to Edwards, so they can wield more influence at the state convention? In a race for delegates, this normally mundane exercise is worth watching this weekend…
*** Clinton's TOO strong in Pennsylvania? If Clinton scores the endorsements that are rumored in Pittsburgh today, it will underscore the strength she has in this state. The establishment in Pennsylvania is not split at all. It's 95% behind Clinton, making a victory in the state all but assured this far out. And yet, is it good for Clinton to be this strong in the state this early? Will it spook Obama out of the state? Will it spook the media where they won't value a Clinton victory as much as they did in Ohio? Clinton is locking down this state early; Obama's headed to Indiana this weekend. The Pennsylvania race will inevitably close, but it does seem Clinton has a distinct advantage. She just doesn't want to get too far ahead, devaluing a potential victory.
*** On the trail: Clinton stumps in Pittsburgh (where she may lock up more key endorsements); McCain holds a media avail and town hall in Springfield, PA before heading to Chicago to raise money; and Obama is down in Chicago.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 39 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 53 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 235 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 312 days
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