Hi.  Love all these updates.  thanks!  FYI  there is a typo in you Cond Dist. 4.  You used Obama's name twice whereas I think you meant Edwards got 11%.

I would expect more losses in caucus states for Clinton.  Very few people have positive reactions to being marginalized or denigrated.  Being told by the Clinton campaign that their participation in the nomination process "doesn't count", they only live in an inconsequential small/red state or being referred to as "latte sippers", probably doesn't endear Senator Clinton to many caucus

I'll try to be as politically correct as I can be. Did you hear that Sen. Clinton?  The overly weight challenged female has begun to practice for that performance we all have expecting.  Yes, the one where she sings your goodbye song.  You know, Yogi Berra was wrong. He said once "it aint over, til it's over".  As a Yankees fan, I adore that loveable guy, but, it's over.  I will send an email to President elect Obama asking him to please give you the Secretary of Transportation post, that way you can name more bridges. Just make sure you don't raise the toll prices.  Some of us don't have $5M to lend ourselves.

YES WE CAN  Obama '08
Cross

Obama can not win in Nov.Hillary will end up with the right count and it will be over.Obama is being shown as a liar,racist and deviseive monger.You can call all the names you want.It reminds us of the congregation that Obama and his family are a part of.Hate and anger srewn from a pulpit should not be allowed.Is this why the church is being investagated?I am wondering if Obama was telling the truth about Farrakhan?Ayers,Farrakhan,Wrightand Resko were his circle of friends???He says he will surrond himself with trusted people that advise him.This is what we want??Not!spread the word. Not just Pa. Call Ind. and N.C. too.On here someone told people to go heckle Pres.Clinton and they did .We saw them with the white sign they were told to carry.Now tell all you can about this pastor.No wonder Obama could twist words of Pres. Clinton to make it look racist.God Bless America.

A question for Chuck Todd...I've been wondering about the vote of the supers (pledged, too, for that matter).  When they cast their controversial votes, will it be done in a public forum so we know who to vote out for not representing the vote of the people (why has everyone forgotten that reps are there to represent the people?), or will it be a back room, secret kind of thing where they come out and lied about who they voted for?

I dont believe this open Obama endorsement . I didnt realise this was on Obama site. Well good luck to you all and God Bless America. Sorry your guy wont win but than isnt this a Republican channel?? I am confused any way  bye Maybe the state caucus wont be pressured like obama did in these.Some people have talked. You cover up anything you want.

The recent banter has been to the affect that Obama is now destroyed, due to Reverend Wright.  I have to ask everyone...how many of you are married to someone who holds different views than you?  I am...and he is a good guy.  I support his right to hold his own views and I listen to them respectfully.  I still don't share them.  How about other friends and family members?  Half my relatives are staunch, redneck Republicans.  I still associate with them, have get togethers, recieve pictures of their kids. You should have heard my Grandma go on about the US of A. Her only son who fought on the beaches of Normandy was later used as a guinea pig in watching the A bombs in the Nevada tests sites.  He was rendered temporarily blind, soon contracted Luekemia and died within the year.  So,  I have to say that people have their own personal griefs and reasons for feeling like they do.  I listen to them and try to understand where they are coming from, but I form my own conclusions.  It's a bad thing when people isolate themselves from every one who is not just like them.  It is the begining of hate, intolerance, war.
Obama is a free thinking guy who is not threatened by listening to other's points of view.  This is a good thing.
But if most Americans are so uptight (so anal that their butts are made of stone) then they can go ahead and put Clinton or McCain in the highest office of this land.  And they'll have what they want, hope it makes them happy.

What happened in CaLifornia yesterday and did  that affect the delegate totals  and if so  what is the end result

From: Bill Burton
Sent: Wed 3/12/2008 6:36 PM

Subject: FW: The Clinton Memo... as annotated by the Obama communications department

To: Interested Parties

From: Clinton Campaign

Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Re: Keystone Test: Obama Losing Ground [Get ready for a good one.]



The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can't win there, how will he win the general election?

[Answer: I suppose by holding obviously Democratic states like California and New York, and beating McCain in swing states like Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Virginia and Wisconsin where Clinton lost to Obama by mostly crushing margins. But good question.]

After setbacks in Ohio and Texas, Barack Obama needs to demonstrate that he can win the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the last state with more than 15 electoral votes on the primary calendar and Barack Obama has lost six of the seven other largest states so far - every state except his home state of Illinois.

[If you define "setback" as netting enough delegates out of our 20-plus-point wins in Mississippi and Wyoming to completely erase any delegate advantage the Clinton campaign earned out of March 4th, then yeah, we feel pretty setback.]


Pennsylvania is of particular importance, along with Ohio, Florida and Michigan, because it is dominated by the swing voters who are critical to a Democratic victory in November. No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since 1948. And no candidate has won the Democratic nomination without winning Pennsylvania since 1972.

[What the Clinton campaign secretly means: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT WE'VE LOST 14 OF THE LAST 17 CONTESTS AND SAID THAT MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA WOULDN'T COUNT FOR ANYTHING. Also, we're still trying to wrap our minds around the amazing coincidence that the only "important" states in the nominating process are the ones that Clinton won.]


But the Obama campaign has just announced that it is turning its attention away from Pennsylvania.

[Huh?]


This is not a strategy that can beat John McCain in November.

[I don't think Clinton's strategy of losing in state after state after promising more of the same politics is working all that well either.]


In the last two weeks, Barack Obama has lost ground among men, women, Democrats, independents and Republicans - all of which point to a candidacy past its prime.

["A candidacy past its prime." These guys kill me.]


For example, just a few weeks ago, Barack Obama won 68% of men in Virginia, 67% in Wisconsin and 62% in Maryland. He won 60% of Virginia women and 55% of Maryland women. He won 62% of independents in Maryland, 64% in Wisconsin and 69% in Virginia. Obama won 59% of Democrats in Maryland, 53% in Wisconsin and 62% in Virginia. And among Republicans, Obama won 72% in both Virginia and Wisconsin.

But now Obama's support has dropped among all these groups.

[That's true, if you don't count all the winning we've been up to. As it turns out, it's difficult to maintain 40-point demographic advantages, even over Clinton]



In Mississippi, he won only 25% of Republicans and barely half of independents. In Ohio, he won only 48% of men, 41% of women and 42% of Democrats. In Texas, he won only 49% of independents and 46% of Democrats. And in Rhode Island, Obama won just 33% of women and 37% of Democrats.

[I'm sympathetic to their attempt to parse crushing defeats. And I'm sure Rush Limbaugh's full-throated endorsement of Clinton didn't make any difference. Right]



Why are so many voters turning away from Barack Obama in state after state?

[You mean besides the fact that we're ahead in votes, states won and delegates?]



In the last few weeks, questions have arisen about Obama's readiness to be president. In Virginia, 56% of Democratic primary voters said Obama was most qualified to be commander-in-chief. That number fell to 37% in Ohio, 35% in Rhode Island and 39% in Texas.

[Only the Clinton campaign could cherry pick states like this. But in contrast to their logic, in the most recent contest of Mississippi, voters said that Obama was more qualified to be commander in chief than Clinton by a margin of 55-42.]



So the late deciders - those making up their minds in the last days before the election - have been shifting to Hillary Clinton. Among those who made their decision in the last three days, Obama won 55% in Virginia and 53% in Wisconsin, but only 43% in Mississippi, 40% in Ohio, 39% in Texas and 37% in Rhode Island.

[If only there were enough late deciders for the Clinton campaign to actually be ahead, they would really be on to something.]



If Barack Obama cannot reverse his downward spiral with a big win in Pennsylvania, he cannot possibly be competitive against John McCain in November.

[If they are defining downward spiral as a series of events in which the Clinton campaign has lost more votes, lost more contests and lost more delegates to us - I guess we will have to suffer this horribly painful slide all the way to the nomination and then on to the White House.]



[Thanks for the laughs guys. This was great.]


previous post by b smith/politico

Senator Obama seems to have an incredibly well oiled campaign. I am quite impressed by his organizational and leadership skills. I am still quite surprised by these results specially in the middle of the biggest controversy Senator's Obama's campaign has ever faced. IOWA seems to be OBAMALAND.

God Bless America!

Yes, trash-talking states as soon as you leave them is always a brilliant strategy. She has no chance to win IA, MN, WA, VA, WI -- swing states all -- in the GE because she's trashed their voters. And let's not even get into how short her coattails would be.

But, she's not going to be allowed to steal the nomination, so this is all moot.

Where are the:

Tax returns?
List of donors to the library?
Her appointment diaries as first lady?

I can almost see you jumping up and down with your hurah for Obama. Its ok he will need it.Obama will never win the White House.His wife doesnt think she could support Hillary if she won and may not be proud of her country again and etc.Keeping her in background so we cannt hear her mind is good but not good enough.I think the gate is open and flood waters are on the way.If he can hypnotise enough to Make primary will still never see Nov win.The repubs are licking there chops.New meat for the freezer.

Caucuses are inherently unfair. They have an ultra-low turnout compared to a ballot primary.  The candidate is selected by party bosses and super-activists. This issue has been discussed ad nauseam, but Clinton may be penalized for embarrassing the party bosses with the truth.

In this tally, Obma has about 160 pledges delegate lead over Clinton. That is more than 6% of the total delegate count needed to win the nomination. Not a landslide but a solid win. Just wonder if Clinton won as much as Obma did at this point, would we even know who Obama is at this point? Wouldn't he have been pushed out of the race to unify the party long ago? If he didn't cooperate after losing as much as Clinton did, it would have been a political suicide on his part. Interestingly, Clinton is very much alive making more demands instead of being forced out. And she is a victom while he is termed lucky by some.

Chuck, you should really have a show of your own.

Their negative comments toward small states impacts as well.

Only large states that have primaries and vote for Hillary have any importance.

Isn't that some sort of denial?

As Kos phrased it, Clinton's "insult 40 states" strategy obviously is working well...

The fact is, the more people have time to examine Senator Obama's record and message versus Senator Clinton's record and message, the more they prefer Senator Obama.

Chuck Todd is my hero.

I just watched his latest appearance in the Hardball video clip section. He made a great point. He said that maybe the reason why Obama hasn't won the "big states" is because Hillary Clinton is the establishment candidate who had 20+ percentage point leads for almost half a year now.

It is difficult for Obama to reach so many people in such large states. So while as in Texas where he basically erased a 20 point Clinon lead in all of about two weeks, there simply isn't enough time to make up that ground. Also, I would add that Clinton is entrenched in these larger states partially as a result of ther being more party establishment types to provide a firewall of support WITHIN the state.

Furthermore, part of her firewall within states is that portion of the vote who will vote for her no matter what. This might explain some of the negative polling numbers we saw coming from folks who voted for Clinton in Mississippi.

I wonder what Clintno's negative numbers are now for Democratic voters? Her negatives are really hgigh so she probably figured her negatives couldn't go much higher. Why not get into a dirty war here? She didn't have much to loose. The support she had up to this point is probably the type of support that will vote for her no matter what. Anecdotally, I've been hearing some of my friends who are Democrats (yes, irrepresentative sample) saying that they aren't sure that they would vote for her in the general. This from Democrats who only weeks ago had been saying that they thought both candidates would make good presidents.

Not sure if Obama's gain at the expense of Clinton is a good thing here. Might be better to just let Clinton have her delegate than to have to deal with the headlines that Obama "stole" a Clinton supporter  come Monday. I think the Obama camp will spin this as they didn't try to influence the person, they made an informed decision and I think that will be successful. Still, I think it sets a bad precedent for the Supers if you start talking about how the delegates are free to make up their own minds irrespective of the voters they are supposed to represent.

By the way, how exactly does Hillary get the popular vote? It looks like she'd have to win the remaining states by 20%. ALL REMINING STATES BY 20% that is. While possible in mathematical terms, I just don't see how the MSM isn't explaining this to people.

She doesn't have a chance to win with elected delegates and her narrative about the popular vote is simply lip service. It seems clear that her intent now is to overturn the will of the people with the Supers. The sooner this realization reaches the media and is explained to the public, the quicker we can dispense with the public debate and recognize that it is time to get behind Obama.

P.S. Typo in Cong. 4, should be Edwards, not Obama twice. This typo is the biggest "gaff" I've seen you make! Keep up the great work.

Should their be a call for Clinton to respectfully concede ???

Why didn't we see FirstRead talked about Wright's sernmon!!!
Very strange this kind of Media !!!
Someone hates Americans, KKKA !!! is that does mean anything to Media? Do they really do their jobs???
Or again NBC, CBS, CNN ... are only the Obamagnac propaganda tool??? What kind of Media News we have now!!!

Dear readers,

You should ask some legitimes about the media???
Think over what you read.

On Feb 24,2008 at 9:27 p.m. on the Houston-Chronicle site by Sophia Toreen,AP was a story telling about a 2 hr speech Farrakhan gave in which most of the time was spent praising Obama as the world saver.This was in Chicago and is the same Farrakhan that Obamas pastor, in his church, gave an honor for all his lifetime works.This was at a rally were he was cementing his base of black moslums and recruiting youth.It bothers me that Obama disinvited his pastor to give prayer at Obamas announcement ceramony(praying in private with him)because he might offend the jewish people he needed. If he was so worried Pastor might offend someone how can he tell us he only heard love and peace from him. WE all want to hear love and peace.Could Obama have been afraid he might talk about our thinking the bombings from palistine being wrong.Killing innocent women and children are against our values. Man us whites just are to be dealt with for sure.Than Obamas wife can be proud again.

Hillary is DONE. Even if she wins the REST of the states 57-43 she STILL has less delegates. This includes Florida and Michigan and includes a 60-40 win in PA. Chris Dodd needs to get real and report her NO CHANCE on hardball more honestly.

Yeah Obama!  Now can we get back to talking about the issues in regards to the candidates.  Issues such as S-CHIP; no one seems to be talking about this in the media.  This is another one of Hillary's misrepresentations of ther Experience Theory.  We are tired of hearing about what surrogates or supporters say.  THEY are not the candidates!

Obama's delegate lead continues to increase - Clinton claims she's "the comeback kid" hints he could be VP.
Obama discloses his earmarks - Clinton remains silent.
Obama discloses his taxes - Clinton remains silent.
These are news stories.
Obama's former pastor made inexcusable, offensive remarks - this gets wall-to-wall cable news coverage.

Great, now can we talk about getting some transparency from Hillary.  What is she hiding?

The Clintons' unwillingness to see the writing on the wall is depressing.  If the roles were reversed, the media and insiders would be portraying Obama as a spoiler candidate.  All the focus would be on "what does he really want" - since he could not win.

It's past due for the senior statesmen(women) to make the visit the Clintons and tell them it's time to stand down for the good of the party and the country.  Simply look at what McCain is doing today/yesterday and compare that to the HRC/Obama race.  Obama was in Indiana!  Clinton is coming to Indiana on Thursday!  Neither of them have ANY business wasting precious time and resources in Indiana!  Continuing this contest is madness.

the Clinton campaign is pressing a law suit in Texas to verify the signatures of the over 100.000 caucus participants in an effort to delay the inevitable results of the Texas caucus

Caucus' are "in person" votes - this is another example of the Clinton's willingness to do or say anything - disenfranchise voters that do not vote for them -- whatever it takes

In the NYT delegate count this morning; in reviewing the superdelegates" Sen Obama is ahead in elected superdelegates (gov, sen and congress) -- where Sen Clinton has her advantage in super delegate is among the almost 400 party insiders - many of whom are in this position since her husbands' administration

This makes the super delegate issue even more concerning - the Clinton campaign is using cronyism

Sen Clinton's only hope is for an Obama implosion - and as the only two looming issues out there were Rezko and Wright -- and both are now out there for all to judge -- it is clear that Sen Obama is free to go after Sen Clinton on all the secretive issues which can implode her campaign

The better route for Sen Clinton - which we all know will never happen - would be for her to stop trying to destroy Sen Obama, not run the risk of destroying herself and look at the mathematical impossible task ahead of her
Talk about kool aid

Now that we know that Obama had no illegal dealings with Rezco, drop it.  But, I am interested in hearing about legal allegations against Hillary.  Why aren't you all discussing this in the media?  I want to know about whether or not the candidate him or herself is involved in any wrondgoing.

Way to go Iowa!

Now can we get back to the real issues!  Ferraro and Wright got way to much airtime.  They are not running to be the president of the U.S.  

Now it's time to start airing the Clintons' dirty laundry.  And I don't mean comments made by surrogates.

Iowains know a good person when they meet one!

MY god, looks like a ghost town over here,i've been posting on articles that have 5,000 to 1,000 bloggers going to town on the recent "pastor Wright" video, America is red hot and rollin, this result in Iowa is the last good news you will be hearing from the Obama campaign,people are rippin bumper stickers off of their cars-don't you people over hear pay attention to what america is saying, an online petition is being started to ask obama to step down for the sake of his country and democratic party. Lets see if you post this?

Looking at the delegate totals so far, it will take the 7 heavens, a parting of the sky and all the angels working overtime for Clinton to eek out a victory at this point. Clinton knows this very well. But if there is one family in this country with a big ego right now that is the Clintons. But should the democratic pary suffer to give room for Clintons ego? The best thing for the democratic party as well as for Clinton, is for her to bow out of the race gracefully before the Philadelphia primary. This will prevent a blood bath trying to figure out the Michigan and Florida delegate issue as well as the disenfranchising of the superdelegates.

By stepping to the side gracefully before the PA primary, Clinton stands to regain any negativity this primary has brought to her. Moreover New York needs a face saver at this point. She stood hand in hand with Mr.Spitzer about the drivers license debacle. Now that  Spitzer has disgraced the states political system, it is only fair that Clinton spend more time working rectifying the state's image crisis created by Spitzer.

So long Hillary.

Didn't he net eleven (His 25 to her 14)?

And yes, I have long thought that her "negative" talk about caucus states as well as small states, red states, states that don't matter (e.g., every state that she doesn't win) is really an incredibly bad tactic.

Its a tactic that marginalizes so many voters...all it does it depress turnout and then hurt Dem. candidates down the ballot.

Its interesting, apparently now they are talking about  how all this talk about superdelegates deciding may, in fact, depress turnout.  Afterall, if people feel their votes don't matter...

And if people feel than their votes don't matter, can we really count Mich. and Florida as the January votes went...because of course turnout is affected when people feel (are told) their votes don't matter.

Obama 08

All you hillary monster "George Wallace" clinton supporters can gripe and moan all you want regarding the caucuses but facts are facts.  Individual states decide to do caucuses and all Obama did was play the game by the rules.  hillary monster "George Wallace" clinton should have played the game by the rules.  The fact that hillary monster "George Wallace" clinton chose to ignore the caucuses is her fault and proof as to how utterly unprepared that racist monster is to be president.

IT'S NOT OVER 'TIL IT'S OVER --- THE CLINTONS STILL HAVE PLANS TO 'STEAL' THE NOMINATION FROM OBAMA --- MORE DIRTY TRICKS TO COME !

Clinton campaign's short-sightedness shines through again.  Maybe you shouldn't continually harp on states that have a caucus if there's a chance you can get more delegates out of them...

How will Hillary spin this one? This is great news and not the only time this result has been played out. The media is not reporting all the good news that Obama is receiving and just goes to show that the bad press Obama has recieved this week is not taking  a toll. I'm from Pa and despite what the polls say  Clinton does not have it wrapped up.

Nevermind (on the net), I see...it was 16 to 15 before, now 25 to 14. So he was up by one, not up by eleven, so a gain of ten.

geez, the math is complicated LOL, you have my utmost respect in keeping track of it all!

Why are we talking about Obama's past exploits is it because he has no future.

no days off for Chuck......

Is there any way Hillary can possibly win at this point?  At least without a major shift in super delegates?

Like Tracy Morgan said to Tina Fey on SNL last night, "Bi@*# may be the new Black, but black is the new President, Bi@*#!"

The media should report the gains that Obama has made in OH, TX, CA, IA, etc.  The only way I'm able to get information about what's really happening is through sources outside of the main stream media.  Here's the accurate scoop on what's happening... http://www.obamaiswinning.com

Yepsen had a column last week saying Clinton was going to kill the caucuses.

Great reporting Chuck.
How about Clinton and Peter Paul.
Please

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):