Looking ahead: Does PA really matter?

Posted: Monday, March 17, 2008 9:10 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: States, 2008, Primaries

PENNSYLVANIA: Some notes from NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… The Clinton campaign opens its Allentown office Monday. It’s one of six in the state. No Clinton family members or key surrogates are expected in the state, making it the first in 10 days without a Clinton in Pennsylvania.

Obama will go to Philadelphia on Tuesday, but no details have been released. He’s holding a town hall Monday in Monaca (35 miles northwest of Pittsburgh) and speaking at the Society of Irish Women dinner in Scranton.

There’s only one more week for independents and Republicans to change their registration to Democratic for the primary. Already, more than 35,000 voters have changed their affiliation to vote in the primary since the beginning of the year, according to the Secretary of State’s office, and more than 80,000 new registrations have been completed. Obama aides circled the Philadelphia streets over the weekend, registering voters.

Putting Pennsylvania in perspective… Larry Eichel of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggests the Pennsylvania primary isn’t as all-important as many might think, especially if Florida and Michigan get to vote afterwards. “Analysts also have noticed that there will be more delegates at stake on May 6 when North Carolina and Indiana vote, 187, than the 158 available in Pennsylvania. Florida and Michigan account for 313.” The only way the state would matter is if Obama wins. “Such an outcome would undercut Clinton's oft-made argument that she is the preferred choice of the big states that dominate the Electoral College. For that reason, an Obama win would have a huge impact on the undeclared superdelegates, who hold the nomination in their hands.”

NORTH CAROLINA: The News and Observer (or the "N&O" if you want to sound like a local) reports that both the Clinton and Obama teams have named their state directors for North Carolina. In the Clinton corner is Ace Smith, who was Clinton’s state director for California and Texas. For Obama, it’s Craig Schirmer, fresh from leading the campaign's successful effort in Wisconsin and directing its GOTV program in South Carolina. Schirmer is also known for running Erskine Bowles' failed 2002 run against Republican Elizabeth Dole.

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Comments

Looking Ahead: Do the Democrats Really Matter?

Frist Reda (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:24 AM)

A week is a long time in politics.

Six will seem like a lifetime to Obama.

Already some of the skeletons are falling out of his closet.

Those numbers in his favour could disappear - and if PA gives a landslide to Clinton the momentum would be in her favour. As we saw after February 4, states that previously had big leads for Clinton suddenly switched due to the big mo that Obama had. The reverse could happen to him if he doesn't shake of the accusations that he faces.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings, London, Engalnd (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:26 AM)

PA matters delegate by delegate just like every other state's delegates. The Clinton spin on the issue is just that.

JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:33 AM)

Pennsylvania matters as as state, but not any more than any other state. It seems particularly evident in this year that no state should be discounted and put down as unimportant.

I don't think Pennsylvania is critically important but the weeks of campaigning in the State, hopefully, will allow the candidates to constructively speak to the issue of how they will lead America in these trying times. If they can stay away from bashing, then these weeks will be useful ones.

If not, then let the chips fall where they may.

Woman for Obama 08

Lisa, New Britain, CT (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:34 AM)

http://twocanpete.blogspot.com
PA. Will matter a lot more if the Obama crew continues to drop boulders on their own feet.

twocanpete (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:44 AM)

It matters only to Obama. He's gotta get the low rent Clinton's out of this thing.

American Voter (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 9:58 AM)

I'd be embarrassed to be a member of the supposedly "independent" media who basically repackage Clinton spin and spit it out as gospel. Then, when the Clinton team says "oh you're being hard on us," the media cowers and says, "yeah, I guess we were." Whatever happened to journalists with guts?

We need some tougher journalists (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:01 AM)

Making Pa. the focal point is the only options open to the clinton campaign. If they look past Pa. the odds are even slimmer for changing the momentum. She has to convince the superdelegates that if She is not the nominee, the democrats won't support Obama in the big states? I guess she wants them to think that democratic voters will turn to McCain instead? Or, perhaps she is signalling that her supporters won't support Obama. No matter, The focus will ultimately be on who has the most delegates. The leaders in the democratic party have signalled that the superdelegates will support that person. Short of an act of God, that person will be Mr. Obama.

Joe, Adel, Ga. (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:05 AM)

Pennsylvania is not the Democrats "Super Bowl" as Clinton & Rendell would like voters to believe. There are 9 primaries after PA with a total of 406 elected-delegates at stake --- the majority of which Obama is expected to win.

CLINTON PA LIE # 3.

3. The assertion that no Democrat since 1948 has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania is technically true — but highly deceptive. Left unsaid is that fact that every successful Democrat after Harry Truman in 1948 would have won the presidency even if he’d lost Pennsylvania. John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton all won enough electoral votes elsewhere and didn’t need the buffer provided by Pennsylvania.

CLINTON PA PRIMARY LIE # 3. (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:09 AM)

Clinton won't disclose anything until after Pennsylvania. She won't dare. And the demand that Obama release his taxes and earmanrks fromwhen he was a state senator is apathetic gransping-at-straws to avoid showing her own sordid records. Why do we think a woman who's so secretive about this stuff won't be torn to shreds by the GOP Smear Machine? SHE'S UNELECTABLE!!!

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:20 AM)

I think Obama not in position to demand right now. Pa.is for Hillary and loves her.Obama needs to release some papers too. Are the renko house papers out? NO! A lot of my family is still in Pa and they say Hillary is there girl.Couple younger ones where thinking about Obama but not now. They are all firmly Hillary.Obama going full front on Hillary(another thing he said he wouldnt do but than...)would help her a lot more if any still balanceing so bring it on Obama.Pa people are loyal. They are a unique and great people.

ep-ny (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:29 AM)

Pennsylvania matter's to both camapign's & to the Economy there.Voter's there just don't Go along to get along.It has always been a Moderate to left leaning state with a diverse array of voting block's.Barack's campaign took a Big Hit the last several day's & it will be interesting to see if the voter's of Pennsylvania hold Barack responsible for the word's of Mr. Wright.Will they be More concerned about The economy?
Gas is gonna soon be $4 a gallon, Milk already is $4 a gallon, $2 for a dozen eggs, you name it, the Price of Everday item's is Rising as fast as a gallon of Gas.I think they'll be more concerned about That, than anything else that happen's because it's Not gonna get better any time soon.

Rick,Ky (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:35 AM)

Bob Beckel sure tries for Obama I will give him that but makes it look worse. The latest polls i saw was 8% in favor of Obamas pastor and 58%against.I think as more comes out we will see the real Obama .To many minus for him.If they found he got his house Illegally (Wife decided on division) would he have to give it back too??Obama is at a disadvantage with Pastor Wright because of his wifes attitudes.Beside being super arragant she has quite a racial prob. with whites.Will they release her papers from Prinston??Pa. is a long time off but like all the other states it is certainly important. Doesnt the electorial collage fit in here somewhere??Any one know?I have trouble figureing it out.

Pa.Jane (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:42 AM)

It's only important to Hillary who wants to be the President of the Big States of America. Who care if she wins PA, she still won't have enough delegates. She's postponing the inevitable. She's really thinking of the Party, now isn't she? She only wants the best for the people, huh? She only wants to best for Hillary. Period. And those that don't see that are foolish.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 10:46 AM)

I still say this big sstates thing is a hoax. Say Hil wins all the big ones, but loses the nomination. Don't you think all those Clinton loyalistas are STILL going to vote democratic agains McWars in November? Of course they are.

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 11:09 AM)

Every state in America matters, stupid. No matter the size and votes, don't allow Hillary to marginalize any state for her own benefit. Don't forget she already got her punishment from Iowa for discounting and discrediting states like Iowa.

Bull the Dog (Sent Monday, March 17, 2008 11:22 AM)

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