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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Looking ahead: Clinton up in PA

Posted: Tuesday, March 18, 2008 9:05 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

PENNSYLVANIA: From a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll: “The momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 – 41 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 49 – 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. In that survey, the momentum was with Sen. Obama who had narrowed a 52 – 36 percent gap from a February 14 poll.”

INDIANA: The Indianapolis Star notices all the attention the Clintons are lavishing on Indiana this week. "Obama was the first to appeal directly to Hoosiers for their votes this year, with a rally and town hall meeting Saturday in Plainfield. But if Clinton lost anything by arriving second, she’s making up for it in the attention she and her husband are paying the state this week. Her visits will include meeting with a small group of people at an as-yet-unidentified diner in Terre Haute, followed by a town hall meeting at the Anderson High School Wigwam gymnasium and a rally in Evansville. Complete details were not available Monday."
 
Clinton's chief Indiana surrogate, Evan Bayh, "conceded that Obama, from neighboring Illinois, has some built-in advantages in wooing Indiana voters. ‘He’ll outspend Sen. Clinton … he’s been doing that in other states.’ And, Bayh said, about 20 percent of Indiana households get their television news from Chicago stations, so they have been familiar with Obama since he won his Senate seat in 2004.”

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16 points, 6 points, 12 points, still five weeks to go in PA.  Still nowhere near the 30-40 point margin Hillary needs to have any impact on the delgate count and the nomination process.

Oregon, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, Guam, and South Dakota will trump Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico.

Bring on McCain.

Obama '08 '12
Ah that is good, they know all about Rezko and the odd uncle Wright is sure to bring a smile to their faces? OBama is a joke!  Obama is a troll!

He will bebombarded when and If he gets to the GE.  There will be SPEAKERS BLASTING WRIGHT SERMONS EVERYWHERE!
McWar will have a talking tee shirt with WRIGHT sermons printed in LOUD letters!
Signs will blink all night with Wright spewing all the wrong WORDS!
The repukes will smash OBAMA!
Here we go with the excuses, Evan Byah.  The Clinton campaign has no shame.  Why don't you just compete and shut up?

And HP, Obama is a troll?  That's precious.  I see you're learning well.  Just like your candidate, you use the attack lines that apply to you to shred your opponent.    And HP, when is John Doe going to post this morning?
Obama....Clinton.  My vote doesn't even count...because once again the Florida Democratic Party is lame.  Russert's original statement is correct.  Senator Bill Nelson has approached the Senate floor with viable solutions but none appease the "Cheese Head of the Florida Dems.  Pelosi and the rest...HEY FLORIDA COUNTS!  MY VOTE COUNTS.  If you are confused read Senator Bill Nelson's plea to the Senate regarding the disenfranchisement of Florida dems.  
As I've said before, if Clinton isn't planning to win Pennsylvania by 140 delegates, why bother?

The best she can do in Indiana is take an Obama net of a couple delegates and reverse it.
And, Bayh said, about 20 percent of Indiana households get their television news from Chicago stations, so they have been familiar with Obama since he won his Senate seat in 2004.”

And 100% of households have been familiar with the Clintons since Bill won the White House in 1992.

4 years or 16? Hmmm.

Mr. Bayh, you are ignorant.
12 points (while a wider gap than a previous Quinnipiac poll) is much narrower than the 19 and 18 point polls taken a week and a half ago.  Momentum to Clinton says they; momentum for Obama says I.
All Clinton has to do is to point out that not only that Obama doesn't have sound judgement but he does not have judgement at all.  As a lay person I disntanced myself from a friend who spewed very bad things about African Americans once.  And Obama to worship this person for 20 years - a joke.  And if folks want to push it under the rug in awe of his charismatic speeches, I say you are asking for it.  Bless you all.
HP Boston. If Obama makes the GE, it would be very easy for the Democrats to blast references from Pat Robertson and the late Jerry Falwell both saying how the USA was being punished for allowing abortions, gay marriages, etc, after 9/11, if McCain wants to court the Christian Right. You tell me what candidate would be hurt more by this issue.
HP Boston - You can talk garbage all you want but Clinton can't win the nomination unless the superdelagate abandon Obama completely. Do the math. If she does convince them to switch to her side it will split the democratic party and put McCain in the Whitehouse.  Maybe this is what you're after.
It's the company you keep, the selection of the reverand as an advisor and trusted friend reflects how little experience Mr.Obama has. The Reverand is someone who Mr. Obama has sought council from for years.  Who would Mr. Obama pick for his cabinent and advisors if he were to make it to office.
THERE ARE 9 PRIMARIES AFTER THE PA PRIMARY --- AND OBAMA IS EXPECTED TO WIN THE MAJORITY OF THE 406 ELECTED-DELEGATES AT STAKE.

PA PRIMARY FACT:

Pennsylvania’s electoral clout has shrunk dramatically since ’48. Back then it had 37 electoral votes. Now it has 23 — a decline of about 40 percent. The population has spread out, making other victory formulas possible for Democrats. This is relevant because of Obama’s considerable superiority in general election match-ups in potential swing states like Virginia and Colorado. Winning those two alone would essentially undo the damage of a Pennsylvania defeat.
I'd hardly say that this new poll in PA is indicative of Clinton momentum. Like in most states where she's been ahead, she has hit a ceiling there. That Bush/Clinton fatigue is a big factor.

America is a democracy not a monarchy. It's time to change the guard in Washington DC. No more Bushes or Clintons.
Obama neither voted for or against the Iraq invasion in 2003, he wasn't even a U.S. Senator until 2004.
GEE, another poll 5 weeks before the primary vote, what could be more worthless? The Clinton campaign is trying to convince America that PA is the superbowl of all primaries. Unfortuneatly for Hillary, it really doesn't mean jack, unless she can pick up some popular vote to try to close the gap with Obama. Even this wont help her feeble attempt to distrubt the Democratic party from going forward and starting our campaign against Sen. John McNut. A tree stump could win against McSurgie, but I'm sure the Democrats will find a way to ruin their chances.
Let''s see...on Trinity''s "black values" mission statement, God is mentioned in the first "value statement," and black is mentioned in the last 11.

Michelle Obama''s thesis was on "racial divide" and she writes that she was let down that her black peers at her ivy league school lost their black identity. Disappointed that they were integrating into society?

Obama releases a "leaked memo" outlining 4 supposed racially sensitive remarks from the Clintons, which in fact, were not, even as Rep Lewis (a black fellow) says that people in the Obama camp were trying to label the Clintons racists.

Obama''s supporter Bill Perkins, a black Senator from NY, linked Bill Clinton and slavery in one sentence on February 4th of this year, "Harlem is not bill clinton''s backyard. It''s not his plantation."

OBAMA SUPPORTERS WHO IS SO FOCUSED ON RACE?!?!?
GEE, another poll 5 weeks before the primary vote, what could be more worthless? The Clinton campaign is trying to convince America that PA is the superbowl of all primaries. Unfortuneatly for Hillary, it really doesn't mean jack, unless she can pick up some popular vote to try to close the gap with Obama. Even this wont help her feeble attempt to distrubt the Democratic party from going forward and starting our campaign against Sen. John McNut. A tree stump could win against McSurgie, but I'm sure the Democrats will find a way to ruin their chances.
"Clinton's chief Indiana surrogate, Evan Bayh, "conceded that Obama, from neighboring Illinois, has some built-in advantages in wooing Indiana voters."
--Right now ...If Hillary thinks she can win it, then it will be a 'big' state.  If she loses, then it's a 'small' and 'unimportant' state.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com
Hillary had one card to make her hand and beat Obama, the Race Card. And you know what, I think she just caught it on the river.
Would I want  apresident who is washy! Obama lied on his taxes.He only put out bits and pices of the years he claim to put out.He  did put out his full year of 07.well  sure he would.Cause he wanted to make sure he didn't do any wrong for that year.I like to see the full taxes 0f 06-05-04-03-02-01- He lied about Rezko... They taked daily on the phone. Favors. makes me wonder. and Rev, J Wright.  You know that PA and Ind and NC are next take you trash talk else where. Obama  was already said that he has  Grave creditibilitys problems. Hillary or John Mccain for  '08  I vote Hillary.
Would I want  apresident who is washy! Obama lied on his taxes.He only put out bits and pices of the years he claim to put out.He  did put out his full year of 07.well  sure he would.Cause he wanted to make sure he didn't do any wrong for that year.I like to see the full taxes 0f 06-05-04-03-02-01- He lied about Rezko... They taked daily on the phone. Favors. makes me wonder. and Rev, J Wright.  You know that PA and Ind and NC are next take you trash talk else where. Obama  was already said that he has  Grave creditibilitys problems. Hillary or John Mccain for  '08  I vote Hillary.
president clinton, What I am hoping for in 2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCG5Tp4ZwZI
Remind me please, how the press chastised our current glorious leader for welcoming Falwell and Robertson to the White House and referring to them as his "counselors" after they said that 9/11 was bec. God was punishing America for women aborting babies and gays havings sex.

Why is there a different standard for Obama and Wright?  Its OK to spew WHITE religious idiocy, but BLACK religious idiocy is somehow unacceptable?
Since the advent of Obama's Pastor comments, he might as well "kiss" the Presidency good bye.  There is NO WAY he is going to be able to "duck" this one.  But there is a chance of winning the election with Clinton.
It is sad to read the hatred and divisiveness in these comments...it is not the politicians who divide us, it we who are divided...they just keep the divisions going. And all you Clinton supporters out there think...Penn, Clinton's top advisor is a Republican...so she keeps the Rove like campaign going...is her desire to win, or make it impossible for Democrats to win so she can run again in 2012...think...she is Republican-lite...using the words of Cheney to defend her vote against the Levin amendment and for the authorization...she can not walk away from that vote.
Since here in the great USA we catogorize things such as race on job applications, government forms,college entry etc., you have african americans,both parents of foresaid ancestry,you have' mulattos' being of white and african american ancestry I beleive that's where Mr.Obama comes in,and to claim one is disclaim the other part of your ancestry .Be proud of ancestry is my opinion
To Just Wondering and Gerry, Buffalo, NY
And they say change.  Same old, same old. I fear Obama's in over his head. Time to look at his judgment not just his speeches.  Rezco and Wright?
Excuses bordering on lies. Running campaign ads is campaigning. Time to call out Obama on the ads he ran in Florida (prior to their primary). And his position on superdelegates voting the way their constituency voted (Massachusetts).  More politics as usual.
I love it when elite liberals fight against themselves, I'm popping some popcorn and pulling up a chair now...  The democrats had one of the easiest wins walking up and sitting in their laps and they shoe it away with these two.  I personally hope Obama wins, that would mean a quick and easy defeat. Hillary would've posed more of a problem if she got the quick nomination but after this p-contest she's a waste.  For a while I was concerned that she would just make Obama her vice president but now that would be more disastrous than Obaama winning...  Any normal moderate liberal would've defeated nearly any Republican candidate, but no, the Dem's thought this is so easy lets put a socialist in there while we have the opportunity.  What a huge miscalculation.. Thanks for giving us the brass ring and another 4 years in the white house.
This is an interesting electoral process. The Republican nominee is established who, bythe way , was hated by the current president when the last election was held. The Democrats are in a heated battle: one candidate who is the wife of a former president, and also a Senator. the other candidate is also a Senator. I notice they both have been giving a ton of speeches lately-yet one accuses the other of "giving speeches instead of solutions"...very strange. One accuses the other of not being experienced enough, yet both are currently serving in the same capacity, and I don't recall there being any college degree one can earn called "President",so what experience are we talking about not having?
How is a voter to choose? Go with your heart, and select the person who you feel will best represent you and work to fulfill your hopes and dreams for a better America.
The general election has allready been decided.

McCain for Republicans. Obama for Democrats.

McCain wins easily.  Why?

Two reasons-(1) Race will be the deciding issue-even if it is never mentioned, with Obama as the democratic nominee.

(2) White women who were enthusiatic about Hillary will either vote for McCain or throw a blank-because they will bitterly believe she was denied because she was a "woman".

The best ticket for the Democrats would have been Clinton-Obama-but it will never happen.(too much muddy water over the dam during this way too long primary season.)

Be prepared for at least 4 more years of money and blood down the drain in Iraq; and as far as the economy;health care;education, etc. McCain does not have a clue.

Where is Franklin Delano Roosevelt when we need him so badly again. God Bless You FDR!!!
Maria PA, I am suprised that you find fault in Obama's release of his tax returns, when the candidate you support hasn't even realeased them at all. That's the openness you are looking for?
listen up i am african american and i think a vote for OBAMA is a vote for another republican in the white house, i think he has bad judgement, with that pastor i was embarrased!!! as a black woman, his wife says she is proud for to be amercian for the 1st time i think all of that ties in together, also you black folks need to listen up all of these white senators for him is because they want to end affirmative action and he has already agreed with them. Think long and hard about this man we have a big problem with this guy and all of this should have came out early i have heard a lot of white and hispanics says if he win the nominee they will vote for McCain in the primary. Me as a black woman will not vote!! he is going to lose.
Well i dont think hillary is going to win philadelphia, who ever wins philly wins the state
OK, OBAMA SAYS HE THINK THE SUPERDELEGATES SHOULD FOLLOW THE PEOPLE IN THEIR DISTRICT, WELL JOHN KERRY, KENNEDY, DID NOT FOLLOW THEY ARE WITH HIM AND IF THEY FOLLOW THE PEOPLE IN THEIR STATE CLINTON WOULD HAVE THEM. SO THATS ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH HIM IS IS UNCERTAIN!!!!! IF HE WANTS TO CHANGE THEN HE WILL DO THE RIGHT THING AND KERRY, KENNEDY WILL JOIN THE PEOPLE OF THEIR HOME STATE AND CLINTON WILL HAVE THOSE DELEGATES SINCE SHE WON THAT STATE, I THINK IF THEY DO NOT SEAT FLORDIA AND MICHIGAN, ALOT OF DEM WILL NOT VOTE AND WILL VOTE REPUBLICAN TICKET
PEOPLE HE HAVE NEVER VOTED ON ANYTHING IF YOU LOOK AT HIS RECORD IN THE SENATE HE VOTES NAY NOW MEANS NO GUTS!!!!!!!
PENNYSLYVANIA AND ALL THE OTHER REMAINING STATES SHOULD NOT BE DISTURBED BY OLD GHOSTS BEING BROUGHT UP DELIBERATELY TO TRY AND DISADVANTAGE SENATOR OBAMA IN THIS ELECTIONS, BUT THEY SHOULD VOTE FOR THE CANDIDTE WHOSE CHOICES AND JUDGEMENT ARE NOT FOR SELF GRATIFICATION BUT RATHER TO SERVE THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA AND KEEP THEM ON TRACK FOR THEIR AMERICAN DREAM. VOTE FOR CHANGE, VOTE FOR HOPE, VOTE FOR BARAK OBAMA!


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