First thoughts: Obama's big speech
Posted: Tuesday, March 18, 2008 9:12 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Obama’s big speech: The last time a top presidential candidate gave an important speech on a sensitive topic was last December, when Mitt Romney talked about American faith. His speech drew favorable reviews, but he didn’t talk much about his own Mormon faith, an issue that ultimately hurt his campaign (evidenced by polls and even the rise of Mike Huckabee). After a week dominated by race -- whether Geraldine Ferraro’s remarks or those by Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- Obama will give a speech on the subject in Philadelphia at 10:15 am ET. Unlike what Romney did, Obama will address the controversy facing him head on. “He'll discuss the controversy surrounding the offensive remarks made by Reverend Wright, but also why they were so contrary to the purpose of his candidacy, which is based on the recognition that there is far more that unites us than divides us," an Obama aide emails First Read. If Obama can't hit a homerun on this speech today, then he won’t be president. This is in his wheelhouse; it's what has motivated him for the beginning. As he told PBS’ Gwen Ifill yesterday, noting he comes from a white mother and a black father: “It’s in my DNA to believe that all of us have something fundamental in common.”
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Democratic hopeful Barack Obama's speech addressing race in America.
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The damage report: Yet it also seems that the controversy surrounding Wright and his remarks has hurt Obama -- so far. A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows Clinton outperforming Obama when matched up against McCain -- something that hasn’t happened often in the past several weeks. In the poll, Clinton is ahead of McCain by five points nationally (51%-46%), while Obama leads him by two (49%-47%). That said, a new CNN poll conducted as Wright’s comments saturated the TV networks shows Obama up by seven points over Clinton nationally (52%-45%). Obama’s speech today has the potential to bookend this Wright controversy, at least in the short term.
*** Let’s talk about race, baby… Let’s talk about you and me: Speaking of race, did anybody else catch Bill Clinton calling the interpretation of his comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson a “total myth and a mugging”? Should he really have used the term "mugging"? Clearly, the former president believes he was wronged in how he was criticized, even as members of Clinton's campaign have all but admitted he stepped over the line in his remarks about Obama. Just askin’: If Obama is being compelled to give a speech about his race, and Romney felt forced to give one about his faith, will Hillary Clinton ever have to give a speech about her husband? Has this campaign shown that it is better to address the elephant in the room, or leave it alone? If Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, the GOP and the press will likely force her to give one about his role at some point. Months ago, many Clinton partisans said she wouldn't need to until the general. That's probably still the case.
*** Hoosier daddy: Today, Bill Clinton campaigns in Indiana, a sign that the Clinton campaign has picked its next "do or die" state after Pennsylvania. It won't be North Carolina, but Indiana -- a state Obama plans to campaign in vigorously, too. In fact, an argument can be made that PA and NC will cancel each other out, and the real test will be the Hoosier State. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton also has Indiana on her schedule this week, as well as West Virginia, a state that comes later in the May calendar. How soon before Obama heads to Oregon? The ballots will go out relatively soon, no?
*** Just askin’ II: If Edwards were to endorse Clinton wouldn’t this be the week to do it -- when Obama’s support among whites is taking a hit?
*** The Florida and Michigan soap operas: Ok, so now with a Florida re-vote dead, all eyes are on Michigan. The legislation is written, but lawmakers in Michigan apparently want sign-off from the campaigns and there's clearly a hesitance from Team Obama. The Clinton folks believe they have Obama in a box on this one, and it's possible Obama's current tenuous political situation re: Wright makes it even harder for him to find a reason to come out against the new plan. Some Obama partisans are apparently unhappy that independents who might have voted in the original Dem primary -- but decided to vote in the GOP primary in Michigan -- won't have a chance to vote in this new primary (and because it also violates DNC rules to have folks vote in a GOP primary AND a Dem primary). Is that an argument that will hold up? Whatever happens, it has to happen this week in Michigan because the state legislature leaves for a two-week recess beginning Friday.
*** The buck stops where? Why hasn't Bush addressed the country on the economy? Sure, there are a bunch of elected Republican members of Congress and a certain GOP presidential nominee who would fear Bush doing that and putting a GOP brand on this economic downturn, but isn't this one of those leadership moments when the country wants to understand better what he thinks government can do about the economy? Even when it seems the country doesn't really listen to Bush anymore during these speeches (notice the lack of poll bumps he gets after national addresses), this does seem like one of those times he should at least try.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton campaigns in Pennsylvania and McCain remains overseas. Also, the liberal Take Back America conference in DC continues, with (among other things) a discussion on MLK and the civil-rights movement.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 35 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 49 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 231 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 308 days
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